Business Cycles - Science topic

Monetary policy, together with fiscal policy, are key policies in stabilizing economies from shocks that come from offers and demands. The monetary policy, with the application of its instruments and channels of transmission, among other things, aims to maintain a stable level of prices, that is, a low level of inflation by permanently creating tar...

Aim/Purpose: Disruptive technologies impact business cycles and work practices, paving the way for new-generation manufacturing trends. Organizations are constantly working to introduce products with a higher degree of innovation, catering to customer demands in the market. Background: The automobile industry plays a significant role in applying di...

Among the testable hypotheses in the debate over the sources of economic fluctuations is file cyclicality of prices. Some studies report countercyclical prices and interpret these results as at odds with traditional models where aggregate demand changes are the primary source of output fluctuations. This paper shows that reported results of counter...

This piece in the series of Milestones starts from the short, clear and highly cited paper by Samuelson (Rev Econ Stat 21(2):75–78, 1939) entitled “Interactions between the Multiplier Analysis and the Principle of Acceleration”, in which the author proposes a linear dynamic model obtained by combining the Keynesian multiplier and the principle of a...

Macroeconomic policy which factors in environmental issues should be designed and implemented. This study examines the macroeconomic and environmental effect of green fiscal and monetary instruments in Nigeria using an environmental DSGE model. The model was calibrated and solved using the first-order Taylor approximation method. First, the respons...

Despite the abundant literature on official development assistance and its effect on recipients, surprisingly little is known about its effect on economic cycles. The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of official development assistance on the economic cycles of Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa countries (CEMAC). The method...

The purpose of this work is to study the joint interaction of three founding elements of modern capitalism, namely endogenous technical change, income distribution, and labor markets, within a low-dimensional nonlinear dynamic setup extending the Goodwin model. Going beyond the conservative structure typical of the predator–prey model, we insert an...

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the Indonesian business cycle and operations, leading to a stock market decline and reduced average dividend distribution as well as profitability, especially for manufacturing companies. This study investigates the pandemic’s influence on financial reporting quality in Indonesia and its relationship to dividend payo...

To formally understand cyclicity in innovation and to tie to Schumpeter’s idea about waves of creative destruction, we elaborate upon Thomas Kuhn’s (1962) hypothesis that science evolves through a succession of paradigm life cycles by noting that entrepreneurs recognize the profitability of new scientific theories through a delay. The delay from in...

Recently, several studies have argued about the interactions of the real economy and financial system, as well as the importance of financial cycles in business cycle fluctuations. To date, there exists near consensus among central bankers, economists, and other scholars that the financial cycle is an important source of business cycle fluctuations...

The U.S. index of industrial production is examined for multifractal long memory over business cycle expansions and recessions from 1919 to 2022. Hurst exponents are computed with wavelets for most expansion periods and the longest-lasting recessions. Rescaled range (R/S) analysis estimates Hurst exponents over the whole period, for all expansion m...

Is healthcare employment recession‐proof? We examine the long‐standing hypothesis that healthcare employment is stable across the business cycle. We explicitly distinguish between negative aggregate demand and supply shocks in studying how healthcare employment responds to recessions, and show that this response depends largely on the type of the e...

Several business cycle models exhibit a recursive timing structure, which enforces delayed propagation of exogenous shocks driving short-run dynamics. We propose a bootstrap-based empirical strategy to test for the relevance of timing restrictions and ensuing shock transmission delays in DSGE environments. In the presence of strong identification,...

This research aims to explore the fiscal and public finance viability on climate physical risk externalities cost for building social-economic-environmental sustainability. It analyzes climate physical risk impact on the real business cycle to change the macroeconomic output functions, its regressive cyclic impact alters tax revenue income and publ...

The major objective of this study is to analyse that how monetary policy of Pakistan had impact on output, inflation and exchange rate fluctuations during Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009 in Pakistan. Quarterly data was used for this purpose. Data spans from 1990Q1 to 2022Q4. Time varying parameter – vector auto regression model (TVP-VAR) of Jouch...

The application of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) and other linear filters to remove trend and extract business cycles in macroeconomic time series is a common practice despite its limitations, namely, in signaling recessions. Median filters and other nonlinear techniques can perform better by accommodating sharp but fundamental changes in the growth tr...

With the arrival of the new millennium, many industries across the developed economies are increasingly facing volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous business environments—often characterized as VUCA—caused by a host of disruptive factors hyper-competition, globalized value chains, high-velocity business cycles, frequent technological changes,...

The central Hicks hypotheses were tested using a behavioral science and the model with capacity effects and price changes. In a further step, the model was expanded to include interest-dependent investments. The Hicks hypotheses were confirmed. Demand created demand via induced investment, which led to an upward process, and the mere decline in dem...

This paper illustrates the power of Julia language for the solution and estimation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. We document large gains of the Julia implementation of Perturbation solution (first and higher orders) and Bayesian estimation using two workhorse models in the literature: the Real Business Cycle Model and a medium s...

On the occasion of the centennial of his mentor Alvin Hansen, Paul Samuelson published in 1988 a modified version of his seminal 1939 multiplier-accelerator model to address aspects of Hansen's secular stagnation hypothesis. The “Keynes-Hansen-Samuelson” model (or KHS, as he called it) was built to analyse the effects of population growth on the ec...

Price to income ratios are naive to interest rate changes leaving them open to criticism as one can simply "borrow more" when interest rates go down. But, in its simple nature, the ratio has gained popularity as the go-to metric despite potentially misstating reality at times. The Dallas FED's (2024) latest investigation delved into the "ambiguous"...

In recent times, various crises have negatively affected the financial stability, job security, and health of countless individuals. According to research, different factors that operate at both the individual and contextual levels can play a prominent role in influencing people's self-employment during periods of economic downturn. This study inve...

Three small Baltic economies of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have undergone extreme economical system change from the planned economy to the market one. The institutional infrastructure have been reorganized and all three countries joined the EU and Euro area. We aim to answer which channels of economic integration are of the largest importance fo...

Research in political business cycles (PBCs) are part of a larger program related to the economic analysis of politics with a macroeconomic focus called New Political Macroeconomics. This article explores the historical evolution of the literature in political business cycles, starting with its first writers. The article emphasizes William Nordhaus...

Understanding the business cycle is crucial for building economic stability, guiding business planning, and informing investment decisions. The business cycle refers to the recurring pattern of expansion and contraction in economic activity over time. Economic analysis is inherently complex, incorporating a myriad of factors (such as macroeconomic...

Assessing the contribution of various risk factors to future inflation risks was crucial for guiding monetary policy during the recent high inflation period. However, existing methodologies often provide limited insights by focusing solely on specific percentiles of the forecast distribution. In contrast, this paper introduces a comprehensive frame...

When comparing methods for performing trend/cycle decompositions, real-time reliability properties are often highlighted as an important aspect to consider. The measures employed to assess the real-time reliability properties are frequently calculated based on real-world economic time series and give an indication of how real-time estimates of tren...

Governments intervene in the housing market via implementing various monetary, fiscal, foreign exchange and credit policies. By this, the housing market undergoes cycles of boom and bust as well as significant swings in value added and housing prices. Therefore, the main goal of this research is to consider the effect of the government’s change on...

Commodity-exporting economies display procyclicality with the price of commodity exports. However, the evidence for the relative importance of commodity price shocks for aggregate fluctuations remains inconclusive. Using Russian data from 2001 to 2018 we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian model with a banking system and leveraged domestic...

This paper investigates the sensitivities of Singapore’s sectoral industrial production to local and global business cycle variations using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model in the nonlinear and asymmetric cointegration framework. By employing monthly time series data from Jan 1983 to Dec 2022 the study corroborates the commonly held...

This study examines the relationship between the business sentiment of Japanese companies regarding promising or potential countries for investment and macroeconomic statistics, such as economic or population growth in Thailand, using data from the Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations by Japanese Manufacturing Companies from 1992 to 2022....

Supermultiplier models, which show how autonomous demand can drive both business cycles and long‐run GDP growth, are based on a stability assumption. In this paper I look at recent efforts to justify this assumption, and argue that they are not convincing. The supermultiplier literature generally assumes that business investment reacts very slowly...

Modern economic theory puts a strong emphasis on spending and investment, which leads to interest rates distortions, and artificial market signals. Challenging this paradigm, the dissertation argues that savings and individualistic entrepreneurship are the signs of a healthy economy. It explores the historical reason for money being most importantl...

Fair value accounting is at the heart of arguably the world’s most prominent accounting standards, particularly US GAAP and IFRS. Fair value measurement has been the subject of intense debate. Among other things, it has been analyzed from an ethical perspective. However, this discussion has mainly been limited to the judgment involved in fair value...

Standard recession forecasting based on economic indicators has become unsettled due to COVID‐19 pandemic's limited but influential data. This paper proposes a new non‐parametric approach to computing predictive probabilities of future recessions that is robust to influential observations and other data irregularities. The method simulates forecast...

This paper delves into financial markets that incorporate a novel form of heterogeneity among investors, specifically in terms of their beliefs regarding the reliability of signals in the business cycle economy model, which may be biased. Unlike most papers in this field, we not only analyze the equilibrium but also examine welfare using objective...

This article deals with the growth drivers of Mediterranean economies (Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain) by focusing on their business cycle dynamics since the 90s. Based on the estimation of a Kaleckian model with single equations, we combine the demand regime literature with that on growth models. We find the four economies to be wage-led, while...

The study of Ellwanger and Snudden (J Bank Financ 154:106962, 2023) discovers a new and remarkable finding regarding the ability of the random-walk model using the end-of-month price of crude oil to forecast future monthly average crude oil prices out-of-sample. The magnitude and nature of the relative predictive gains lead the authors to question...

An article published in 2018 by J.D. Hamilton gained significant attention due to its provocative title, “Why you should never use the Hodrick-Prescott filter.” Additionally, an alternative method for detrending, the Hamilton regression filter (HRF), was introduced. His work was frequently interpreted as a proposal to substitute the Hodrick–Prescot...

Although multiple studies on structural change can be found at the national level, the definition of structural change is far from univocal and its subnational manifestations remain underexplored. This paper empirically examines the patterns of regional structural change in Argentina according to the four main definitions used in the literature (no...

The 2016 USA elections appear to have made Russia the "poster-boy" for election interference across the globe, allegedly using tools such as disinformation, misinformation, mal-information, email hacking, leaking of confidential information, and others. All such activities are a threat to national self-determination, democracy, and the autonomy of...

Over 40 years of research links cashless payment methods to increased consumer spending. Referred to as the “cashless effect,” this phenomenon has recently come under scrutiny as consumers are increasingly familiar with non-cash methods which could weaken the cashless effect, while other research challenges the robustness of the effect and question...

A recent challenge in business cycle analysis is high-dimensional databases with time-irregular span of available time-series starting points (TISN). Using the Brazilian business cycle, this study proposes a hyper-dimension environment entropic test of relative information, and develops a time-irregular span version for the generalized dynamic fact...

This paper examines the role of disaster-related shocks in a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. First, we estimate a panel data vector autoregression (VAR) model for output, investment, trade balance, consumption and country risk to capture the economic effects of output, country risk and exogenous shocks related to natural disast...

In today's rapidly changing business landscape, organizations increasingly invest in different technologies to enhance their innovation capabilities. Among the technological investment, a notable development is the applications of big data analytics (BDA), which plays a pivotal role in supporting firms' decision-making processes. Big data technolog...

The Covid-19 outbreak has caused turbulence in Indonesia's economic growth, thereby disrupting the performance of Islamic banks, especially in the distribution of financing. This research examines the influence of economic turbulence, third-party deposits, bank size, capital and profitability on financing disbursed by Islamic banks in Indonesia. Th...

Impact of Business Cycles on Indian IT Industry

Inventory dynamics play a significant role in business cycles, as inventory tends to be more sensitive to excess demand fluctuations than it is to production. This study addresses the decision-making problem of firms and households under possible quantity-constrained trade using a simple model based on Keynesian unemployment in disequilib-rium econ...

A striking feature of the pandemics was the massive fiscal policy stimulus that was initiated globally and the reaction of households. Before a vaccine against Covid was invented, households reacted by saving a big part of their incomes, resulting in falling real consumption. When the vaccine was invented and expected to be rolled out, the reaction...

This article analyzes the Brazilian business cycle from Jan 2000 to February 2020 using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. In Brazilian literature, articles aiming to obtain stylized facts using SVAR models adopt controversial identification hypotheses. The identification via heteroskedasticity emerges as an alternative, eliminating t...

In this study, we applied a heterogeneous New Keynesian model to analyze the dynamics of the Bangladeshi economy. Utilizing Bayesian methods and data specific to Bangladesh, our model incorporates diverse household characteristics and economic features such as uninsurable income risks, sticky wages and prices, varying levels of asset liquidity, and...

This paper studies the stability properties of inflation-targeting interest rate rules in an economy with regulatory capital requirements. We derive the conditions for rational expectations equilibrium determinacy in a sticky-price model augmented with the cost channel of monetary policy transmission. We find that when tightening Basel II-type capi...

Documentation about the German Institute for Economic Research in the Second World War - This documentation supplements the essay on the "German Institute for Economic Research in the Second World War" (https://doi.org/10.1515/jbwg-2024-0012) published in issue 2024/1 of the Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte – Economis History Yearbook. Abstract:...

This paper studies the positiveness in most consumed songs during a period of sadness, worry and uncertainty: the COVID-19 crisis in comparison with previous years. In order to perform the analysis, we create an original positive music indicator using a dataset of weekly patterns for music consumption in 31 OECD countries over a five year period. R...

After the Global Financial Crisis, the U.S. housing market has been studied extensively from several dimensions to assess the causes for the price crash during 2007–2012. In this paper, we formulate five hypotheses about the behavior of housing prices and introduce two important innovations: first we extend the sample period, from January 1987 to A...

The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), the largest institute of its kind in Germany, will celebrate its centenary in 2025. It was founded as the Institute for Business Cycle Research (IfK) on July 16 1925 by Ernst Wagemann, then President of the German Statistical Office. The Institute’s research on the war economy 1939 to 1945 ha...

Canada’s universities each receive an annual operating grant from their provincial gov- ernment to partially finance operating expenses. This paper estimates the sensitivity of provincial operating grants to the business cycle by disentangling the effects of procyclical income on government revenue and the countercyclical effect on student demand b...

The paper aimed to investigate the cyclical dynamics of the business, credit, and investment sectors in India. This was achieved by utilizing annual data from 1980 to 2021 and investigating the impact of domestic and global financial cycles on the business cycle. The cycles were derived using the Hodrick–Prescott filter, and structural vector autor...

Ecuador is a developing country characterised by a high degree of informality and has undergone significant economic transformations that have had an impact on the labour market. Despite the national trend of a slight decline in labour force participation, there are notable differences in development across the country, making it an interesting cas...

Plain Language Summary Financial and macroeconomic uncertainty impact on business cycles Purpose: Most of the macro literature on uncertainty has focused on macro uncertainty caused by real activity as a source of economic fluctuations. Economic uncertainty reduces total demand in the economy via a conventional channel that is associated with the r...

Research Originality: This study contributes to capturing credit cycle movements during the COVID-19 pandemic and compares sizes of credit and business cycles to promote banking stability.Research Objectives: This study attempts to examine banking behavior on amplitude and frequency indicators by focusing on the credit property of Islamic and conve...

The Islamic Capital Markets (ICM) have become part and parcel of the modern financial system which not only assists in the growth and expansion of the heavily monetized economy but often becomes a very major indicator of the business cycle movements as well as the confidence and the sentiments of the business community and investors. Of late, ICM h...

The primary objectives of this research are to compare the economic performance of the Member States (MS) in the Euro Area 12 (EA-12) of the European Union (EU) that served as net contributors and net recipients of its budget during the period 1998–2022. The comparison focuses on aspects related to economic growth and the business cycle, exploring...

This study contributes to the literature on economic growth and religion by analyzing innovation and labor market channels in Africa. We adopt an innovative approach to controlling causal inference from religion to economic prosperity on the one hand and from religion to innovation and labor market participation on the other hand. Our approach invo...

Using survey forecast data, this paper documents several stylized facts about forecasters’ beliefs on income and consumption and aggregate consumption growth: (1) survey-based income forecast at consensus level is highly correlated with consumption growth; (2) consensus income and consumption growth forecast errors under-react to macro news shocks...

This paper examines the emergence of private debt-led growth in Canada since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by means of a growth regimes and macroeconomic policy regime assessment. Examining each of the four business cycles in the 1983–2020 period, roughly encompassing the entirety of the neoliberal period, results demonstrate the emergence of a...

Objetivo: Analisar como o efeito impulso-resposta de variáveis macroeconômicas impacta nos indicadores de solvência, de empresas reguladas e não reguladas de capital aberto listadas na Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão (B3). Método: Foi adotado o modelo de Vetores Autorregressivos (VAR) com Correção de Erros (VEC) para quatro defasagens, com o uso da ordenação...

This article investigates a two-period lived overlapping-generations (OLG) model that incorporates financial intermediation. A risk-neutral bank offers loan and deposit contracts that insure risk-averse agents against idiosyncratic income shocks. Agents prefer financial intermediation to capital markets if it provides efficient risk sharing. The an...

The underlying causes of the relative economic downturn in all parts of the world since the outbreak of COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) deserve deeper scrutiny. This paper focuses on the employment situation of women during the above-mentioned period, including a comparison between the extent to which non-cyclical economic downturns have affect...

This paper explores the aggregate income risk offormal workers in Argentina, using a longitudinal database that contains information on approximately half a million formal employees in the private sector for a span of twenty years. We estimate quantile regression models to measure the sensitivity of real wages to the business cycle along the condit...

Bank credit mechanisms play a crucial role in conditioning how the macroeconomy responds to underlying economic disturbances. Thus, the transmission of monetary policy and the propagation mechanism of business cycle shocks depend heavily on bank credit. Given its importance in this context, bank credit has received particular attention after the gl...

The Algerian economy suffers from difficulties hindering its growth and development. Related to the informal economy, that the State seeks to frame it in the formal economic cycle, following several policies and using different mechanisms. This study treated the electronic invoice as a mechanism to include the informal economy in the official busin...

Research background: Unemployment is a huge topic for policymakers, scholars, and, in general, society. Historically, there have always been a lot of discussions about this phenomenon. It is already acknowledged that unemployment is closely related to economic activity: when the economy is growing, more people are employed, and when economic activi...

A recession is a business cycle contraction, a general slowdown in economic activity. During recessions, many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way. Production, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), employment, investment spending, capacity utilization, household incomes, business profits, and inflation all fall, while bankruptcies...

This paper aims to contribute to Meirelles' (2019) business cycle model, analyzing regulation as a potential risk factor. In this regard, by applying criteria aimed at identifying regulatory abuse, it is possible to identify regulation as a risk in the business model across the value cycle. Entrepreneurs' diverse responses to regulations and their...

The strong negative correlation between divorce and a wide range of outcomes in terms of well-being, health, education and labour market performance has been well documented in the literature. Economic conditions have been found to affect marital stability. Shared gains from marriage also depend on spouses’ characteristics such as age, education, e...

We analyze whether the central banks of a selected sample of emerging economies respond to exchange rate movements. We use economies that are inflation targters and exporters of a limited number of commodities. The latter renders them vulnerable to terms of trade shocks. The sample comprises Brazil, the Czech Republic, India, Indonesia, Russia and...

Entrepreneurship promotes efficiency as well as social change because it leads to an increase in demand for products and services while lowering their cost. Every organisationneeds a development process because it aids in guiding the various advancements anticipated during the business cycle and ways to effectively utilise the resources at hand. Th...

In this paper we study the effects of the business cycle on welfare benefit duration and successful exits from the welfare programs. We construct durations for households entering these programs using administrative data for the total population participating in 2005-2016 in Minimum Income Integration programs in Spain,and combine these with provin...

In the century and a half since Maxwell first conjured his “finite being” which Lord Kelvin subsequently dubbed a “daemon”, researchers have explored the connections between non-equilibrium thermodynamics, entropy, and information theory. In recent years various Thermodynamic Uncertainty Relations (TURs) have been derived to inform upon the relatio...

This paper for the first time calculates the historical regional GDP (rGDP) for an Eastern European country by using the methodology of Frank Geary and Tom Stark [2002. Examining Ireland's post-famine economic growth performance. The Economic Journal, 112 (482):919-935]. The estimates cover the period 1925-1935 and are made for the historical Latvi...

Abstract: In the century and a half since Maxwell first conjured his “finite being” which Lord Kelvin subsequently dubbed a “daemon”, researchers have explored the connections between non-equilibrium thermodynamics, entropy, and information theory. In recent years various Thermodynamic Uncertainty Relations (TURs) have been derived to inform upon t...

The link between the Indian IT industry and business cycles is examined in this article. The IT-BPO sector has spearheaded India’s transition from an agricultural to a service economy. The industry has dominated this field by producing around 10% of India’s service industry earnings and developing a special “service-directed” export-oriented busine...

This study aims to examine output dynamics in East Java using the Real Business Cycle (RBC) model. We constructed an RBC model with two stochastic shocks originating from the demand and supply sides. The RBC model in this study shows that output dynamics, as the driver of the business cycle in East Java, are mostly caused by exogenous shocks origin...

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index across various business cycles in France. Concerning methodological aspects of this paper, we apply partial continuous wavelets transforms to perform time-frequencies analysis to remove the effect of the monetary trend on this relationship...

The literature has overlooked the significance of business cycle synchronization in sustainable trade development, particularly with regard to trade-adjusted carbon emissions. Further, how capital mobility affect the nexus between business cycle synchronization and sustainable trade development is an area that is yet to be explored. This paper exam...

: The core objective of this study is to examine the sensitivity between market volatility and profitability of momentum by inducting 50 listed companies on the Dhaka stock exchange for the period of 2003 to 2021. By extending the theme of this study, the researcher also examines the relationship between losers and winners of portfolio and othe...

Overseas development finance plays a pivotal role in China's expanding global engagement. Existing scholarship often underestimates the commercial astuteness of Chinese capital, portraying it as "patient" due to its higher tolerance of risk compared to Western capital, which prioritizes short-term gains. However, we demonstrate that this narrative...

In this paper, we study the relationship between economic uncertainty, household credit situations, and educational outcomes. Using the System Generalized Methods of Moments (SYS-GMM) on educational and economic data from the World Bank and IMF, we find that economic uncertainty and households' access to credit have positive impacts on higher educa...

We used a Bayesian dynamic factor model (BDFM) to examine the share of variance explained by the European and country factors for 59 regions in Eurozone countries in the period from 1992 to 2020. The BDFM output facilitated the construction of a criterion that enables the assessment of the cost of participation in the European Monetary Union, which...

When can exogenous changes in beliefs generate endogenous fluctuations in rational expectation models? We analyze this question in the canonical one-sector and two-sector models of the business cycle with increasing returns to scale. A key feature of our analysis is that we express the uniqueness/multiplicity condition of equilibirum paths in terms...

We used a Bayesian dynamic factor model (BDFM) to examine the share of variance explained by the European and country factors for 59 regions in Eurozone countries in the period from 1992 to 2020. The BDFM output facilitated the construction of a criterion that enables the assessment of the cost of participation in the European Monetary Union, which...

We follow Belongia and Ireland (2021) and investigate the role that the Center for Financial Stability credit card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates could play in monetary policy and business cycle analysis. We use Bayesian methods to estimate a structural VAR under priors that reflect Keynesian channels of monetary transmission, but produce po...

This paper examines the relationship between the president’s political party and the national economy from 1949 to 2022. Changes in GDP, unemployment, national debt, and the debt-to-GDP ratio are used to measure national economic performance with the Standard and Poor 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average as measures of stock market performance. A n...

We study a production problem in which the cumulative consumer demand for an item follows a Brownian motion with drift, with both the drift and the variance parameters modulated by a continuous-time Markov chain that represents the regime. The company wants to maintain the inventory level as close as possible to a target inventory level, but there...

An extensive economic literature has investigated the cyclical behaviour of the budget balance in response to the business cycle. However, little is known about the behaviour of one of its two main components, i.e. tax revenue. We shed new light on this issue by focusing on a panel of 27 EU countries for the period 1995-2022. Using a novel empirica...

In this paper we extend the Bayesian unobserved components model of the EU Commission to estimate the cyclical component of total factor productivity (TFP gap) with a factor structure that includes a wide array of business cycle indicators. We demonstrate that this model extension considerably stabilizes the estimate of the TFP gap for the largest...

The study analyzed the extent of financial cycle synchronization, as represented by the Aggregate Financial Cycle and the Credit and Housing Cycle, in South Africa from 1975q1 to 2023q4 using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model and the Vector Erro Correction Mechanism. Financial cycles are a significant source of systemic risks monitored by b...

In the context of volatilities in the international markets in recent times, studies regarding the complexities of oil price fluctuations have focussed on analysing the special fluctuation characteristics of oil prices in different historical perspectives. This study examines the extent to which petroleum price fluctuations under the petroleum pric...