Susanne A. Fritz's research while affiliated with Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main and other places

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Publications (80)


Trophic adaptation of large terrestrial omnivores to global change
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May 2024

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Large omnivores at the top of food webs play a key role in ecosystems, as their ability to feed on multiple trophic levels stabilizes food-web dynamics and impacts ecosystem functioning. However, it is largely unexplored how large omnivores adapt their trophic interactions to altered resource availability under global change, particularly in terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we combine macroecological and paleoecological approaches and reveal that extant bears, the largest terrestrial omnivores, adapt their trophic position in food webs dynamically to net primary productivity and growing season length. Throughout their geographic ranges, extant bears occupy higher trophic positions in unproductive ecosystems with short growing seasons than in productive ecosystems with long growing seasons. Consistent with this geographic pattern, the trophic position of the brown bear sharply decreased at the transition from the Late Pleistocene to the Holocene, coinciding with an increase in net primary productivity and growing season length. These findings demonstrate that trophic interactions of omnivores are not static but change dynamically in response to environmental change. Our findings suggest that global change impacts on primary production and vegetation seasonality may trigger shifts in the functional role of omnivores, with consequences for food webs and ecosystem functions.

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Utilizing multi-objective decision support tools for protected area selection

September 2023

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145 Reads

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2 Citations

One Earth

Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) is a key action in delivering post-2020 biodiversity targets. PAs often need to meet multiple objectives, ranging from biodiversity protection to ecosystem service provision and climate change mitigation, but available land and conservation funding is limited. Therefore, optimizing resources by selecting the most beneficial PAs is vital. Here, we advocate for a flexible and transparent approach to selecting PAs based on multiple objectives, and illustrate this with a decision support tool on a global scale. The tool allows weighting and prioritization of different conservation objectives according to user-specified preferences as well as real-time comparison of the outcome. Applying the tool across 1,346 terrestrial PAs, we demonstrate that decision makers frequently face trade-offs among conflicting objectives, e.g., between species protection and ecosystem integrity. Nevertheless, we show that transparent decision support tools can reveal synergies and trade-offs associated with PA selection, thereby helping to illuminate and resolve land-use conflicts embedded in divergent societal and political demands and values.


Environmental Change and Body Size Evolution in Neogene Large Mammals

August 2023

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74 Reads

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2 Citations

Body size is an overarching trait of taxa, related to virtually all aspects of their life history and their relationships with the environment. In this chapter, we use the NOW data to summarize body size evolution of terrestrial mammals during the Neogene. We first present a new method for estimating body size of Proboscidea and show consistent trends of increasing sizes through time across Eurasia and Africa with the resulting new dataset. Both continental trends tracked global warming and cooling events and suggested selection of larger sizes driven by the effects of harshening terrestrial environments. We then use a combined dataset of five mammalian orders to show that large herbivorous mammals increased in body size through time in North America but maintained earlier sizes in Europe. This continental difference reflects the more stable Neogene biome distribution in Europe and highlights the importance of biogeographic approaches for understanding body size evolution.KeywordsAfricaBody MassBody Size EstimationDietEcological DiversityEnvironmental ChangePaleobiogeographyProboscidea


Fossil leaves reveal drivers of herbivore functional diversity during the Cenozoic

July 2023

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193 Reads

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3 Citations

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Herbivorous arthropods are the most diverse group of multicellular organisms on Earth. The most discussed drivers of their inordinate taxonomic and functional diversity are high niche availability associated with the diversity of host plants and dense niche packing due to host partitioning among herbivores. However, the relative contributions of these two factors to dynamics in the diversity of herbivores throughout Earth's history remain unresolved. Using fossil data on herbivore-induced leaf damage from across the Cenozoic, we infer quantitative bipartite interaction networks between plants and functional feeding types of herbivores. We fit a general model of diversity to these interaction networks and discover that host partitioning among functional groups of herbivores contributed twice as much to herbivore functional diversity as host diversity. These findings indicate that niche packing primarily shaped the dynamics in the functional diversity of herbivores during the past 66 my. Our study highlights how the fossil record can be used to test fundamental theories of biodiversity and represents a benchmark for assessing the drivers of herbivore functional diversity in modern ecosystems.


Conceptual overview of correlative species distribution models (SDMs) used for prediction under climate change. SDMs are fitted to observed occurrence data and climatic (or, more generally, environmental) data in time step t 1 (upper row of figures) using adequate statistical and machine-learning approaches (top-right plot shows two example approaches as grey curve and blue step function). The fitted species–environment relationship is then used to make predictions of habitat suitability and potential distribution at time step tx given future climate (or environmental) layers (lower row of figures). The potential future distribution derived from SDMs can differ from the true distribution at time step tx as the latter will be co-determined by the biological processes of dispersal, demography, species interactions and genetic or behavioural adaptation leading to transient dynamics (small figures in the middle).
Use of correlative species distribution models (SDMs) over the last three decades. We extracted all studies from the Web of Science (see the keywords in Table 1) between 1900 and 2021 and classified them according to whether they were used in a climate change context and whether they mentioned extinctions or population declines. Earliest SDM studies appeared in 1969 with one to three publications per year until 1985. For easier visualisation, we only show publications published after 1985. (A) shows the absolute number of SDM publications per year. (B) shows the absolute number of SDM publications that mention climate change (CC) and those that mention both CC and extinctions (Ext). (C) shows the proportion of different SDM studies per year: green indicates the proportion of all SDM studies per year that mention climate change and purple indicates the proportion of all climate change-related SDM studies per year that mention extinction or population decline.
Shape of the study area as well as dispersal assumptions influence predictions of correlative species distribution models (SDMs). This is shown here for theoretical continents characterised solely by a linear gradual decrease of temperature to the upper part of the study area. We assume that each temperature band is occupied by one hypothetical species. In the future, temperature isoclines will move upwards on the shown study areas (imitating global warming; sketch maps on the left). Under the full-dispersal assumption, species will fully track their suitable temperature band. Under the no-dispersal scenario, species will lose climatically suitable area but will not shift their range. These two extremes reflect the most common dispersal assumptions in SDM-based projections under climate change. Extinction risk estimates derived from SDMs strongly depend on the geographical shape of the study area, and the dispersal assumption (bar charts on the right showing relative area change for each species). Fun fact: the continent map in (D) is a rough representation of the area–latitude relationship of western Europe.
Workflow and challenges for deriving adequate range loss predictions from correlative species distribution models (SDMs) and subsequent estimates of extinction risk. (A) Several methodological and conceptual challenges should be considered in SDM development, and resulting uncertainty should be adequately communicated. Current best practices for achieving or assessing model credibility are summarised in Araújo et al. (2019) and Sofaer et al. (2019). (B) While predicted range loss can be readily translated into IUCN Red List categories for threatened species following the IUCN Red List guidelines (IUCN, 2022), the IUCN advices against deriving quantitative extinction risk estimates from SDM predictions. At the very least, further research is required regarding adequate extinction–range loss relationships and adequate uncertainty propagation (IUCN Red List categories: CR, critically endangered; EN, endangered; VU, vulnerable).
Web of Science search terms used in the literature search on 21 July 2022
Predicting extinctions with species distribution models

February 2023

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303 Reads

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11 Citations

Cambridge Prisms: Extinction

Cambridge Prisms: Extinction

Predictions of species-level extinction risk from climate change are mostly based on species distribution models (SDMs). Reviewing the literature, we summarise why the translation of SDM results to extinction risk is conceptually and methodologically challenged and why critical SDM assumptions are unlikely to be met under climate change. Published SDM-derived extinction estimates are based on a positive relationship between range size decline and extinction risk, which empirically is not well understood. Importantly, the classification criteria used by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were not meant for this purpose and are often misused. Future predictive studies would profit considerably from a better understanding of the extinction risk–range decline relationship, particularly regarding the persistence and non-random distribution of the few last individuals in dwindling populations. Nevertheless, in the face of the ongoing climate and biodiversity crises, there is a high demand for predictions of future extinction risks. Despite prevailing challenges, we agree that SDMs currently provide the most accessible method to assess climate-related extinction risk across multiple species. We summarise current good practice in how SDMs can serve to classify species into IUCN extinction risk categories and predict whether a species is likely to become threatened under future climate. However, the uncertainties associated with translating predicted range declines into quantitative extinction risk need to be adequately communicated and extinction predictions should only be attempted with carefully conducted SDMs that openly communicate the limitations and uncertainty.


Mammalian body size evolution was shaped by habitat transitions as an indirect effect of climate change

October 2022

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160 Reads

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Aim Body size evolution has long been hypothesized to have been driven by factors linked to climate change, but the specific mechanisms are difficult to disentangle due to the wide range of functional traits that covary with body size. In this study, we investigated the impact of regional habitat changes as a potential indirect effect of climate change on body size evolution. Location Europe and North America. Time period The Neogene (~23–2 million years ago). Major taxa Five orders of terrestrial mammals: Artiodactyla, Carnivora, Perissodactyla, Proboscidea and Primates. Methods We compared the two continental faunas, which have exceptional fossil records of terrestrial mammals and underwent different processes of habitat transition during the Neogene. Using Bayesian multilevel regression models, we assessed the variation in the temporal dynamics of body size diversity among ecographic groups, defined by their continent of occurrence and dietary preference. Results Model comparisons unanimously supported a combined effect of diet and continent on all metrics of body size frequency distributions, rejecting the shared energetic advantage of larger bodies in colder climates as a dominant mechanism of body size evolution. Rather, the diet‐specific dynamics on each continent pinpointed an indirect effect of climate change – change in habitat availability, and thus the resource landscape as a key driver of mammalian evolution. Main conclusions Our study highlights dietary preference as a mechanistic link between mammalian evolution and habitat transition mediating an indirect climate‐change effect and demonstrates the complexity of climatic influence on biodiversity. Our findings suggest that the intensified habitat modification today likely poses a bigger threat than climate change in itself to living mammals, and perhaps all endotherms.



Projected climate change impacts on the phylogenetic diversity of the world's terrestrial birds: More than species numbers

July 2022

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338 Reads

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5 Citations

Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. As abiotic tolerances and dispersal abilities vary, species-specific responses have the potential to further amplify or ameliorate the ensuing impacts on species assemblages. Here, we investigate the effects of climate change on species distributions across non-marine birds, quantifying its projected impact on species richness (SR) as well as on different aspects of phylogenetic diversity globally. Going beyond previous work, we disentangle the potential impacts of species gains versus losses on assemblage-level phylogenetic diversity under climate change and compare the projected impacts to randomized assemblage changes. We show that beyond its effects on SR, climate change could have profound impacts on assemblage-level phylogenetic diversity and composition, which differ significantly from random changes and among regions. Though marked species losses are most frequent in tropical and subtropical areas in our projections, phylogenetic restructuring of species communities is likely to occur all across the globe. Furthermore, our results indicate that the most severe changes to the phylogenetic diversity of local assemblages are likely to be caused by species range shifts and local species gains rather than range reductions and extinctions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering diverse measures in climate impact assessments.


Response traits related to species’ sensitivity to climate change, here climatic niche breadth, (a) and their ecological adaptive capacity, here dispersal ability, dietary niche breadth in terms of fruit choice and habitat niche breadth, (b–d). (a) A species’ sensitivity to climate change can be approximated by its climatic niche breadth since a species with a broad climatic niche (generalist) has a higher chance that changing climates remain within its niche than a species with a narrow climatic niche (specialist). We estimated the climatic niche breadth of the avian frugivores based on species’ current occurrences and climate data across South America as a hypervolume in a two‐dimensional climate space. (b–d) Important aspects of a species’ adaptive capacity are the species’ ability to shift its range and to utilize a wide range of resources. (b) A species’ ability to shift its range influences whether the species can track suitable conditions and relates to the species’ dispersal ability. We approximated the dispersal ability of the avian frugivores by their wing pointedness measured on museum specimens. (c) A species’ dietary niche breadth influences whether the species can tolerate shifts in food resources. For avian frugivores, this can be estimated by their bill width, which influences the range of fruit sizes the species can feed on. (d) Similarly, a species’ habitat niche breadth influences whether the species can tolerate shifts in available habitat. We approximated the habitat niche breadth of the avian frugivores as the number of habitat classes the species are reported to occur in. The illustration of avian wing morphology is adapted from Sheard et al. (2020)
Elevational patterns of species’ sensitivity to climate change (a) and of their trait‐based ecological adaptive capacity (b–d). Shown are patterns of species’ (a) climatic niche breadth, (b) wing pointedness (as a proxy for species’ dispersal ability), (c) bill width (as a proxy for species’ dietary niche breadth) and (d) habitat niche breadth (i.e. number of used habitat types) along elevation. Horizontal lines represent each species’ elevational range in the study area (from minimum to maximum elevation; n = 215 avian frugivores). Vertical lines indicate the 12 species assemblages studied at the different elevations
Associations between sensitivity to climate change (climatic niche breadth) and trait‐based adaptive capacity across species. Shown are associations between climatic niche breadth and (a) wing pointedness (as a proxy for species’ dispersal ability), (b) bill width (as a proxy for the dietary niche breadth of avian frugivores), and (c) habitat niche breadth (i.e. the number of used habitat types). Each dot represents a species (n = 215), and colours represent the different orders of frugivorous birds
Independent variation of avian sensitivity to climate change and trait‐based adaptive capacity along a tropical elevational gradient

March 2022

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191 Reads

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1 Citation

Aim How species respond to climate change is influenced by their sensitivity to climatic conditions (i.e. their climatic niche) and aspects of their adaptive capacity (e.g. their dispersal ability and ecological niche). To date, it is largely unknown whether and how species’ sensitivity to climate change and their adaptive capacity covary. However, understanding this relationship is important to predict the potential consequences of a changing climate for species assemblages. Here, we test how species’ sensitivity to climate change and trait‐based measures of their ecological adaptive capacity (i) vary along a broad elevational gradient and (ii) covary across a large number of bird species. Location A Neotropical elevational gradient (300–3600 m.a.s.l.) in the Manú Biosphere Reserve, south‐east Peru. Methods We focus on 215 frugivorous bird species along a Neotropical elevational gradient. We approximate species’ sensitivity to climate change by their climatic niche breadth, based on species occurrences across South America and bioclimatic variables. In addition, we use a trait‐based approach to estimate the dispersal ability of species (approximated by their wing pointedness), their dietary niche breadth (approximated by bill width) and their habitat niche breadth (the number of used habitat classes). Results We found that (i) species’ climatic niche breadth increased with elevation, while their trait‐based dispersal ability and dietary niche breadth decreased with elevation, and (ii) sensitivity to climate change and trait‐based adaptive capacity were not related across species. Main conclusions These results suggest different mechanisms of how species in lowland and highland assemblages might respond to climate change. The independent variation of species’ sensitivity to climate change and their trait‐based adaptive capacity suggests that accounting for both dimensions will improve assessments of species’ susceptibility to climate change and potential impacts of climate change on diverse species assemblages.


Cover Image: Volume 25 Number 3, March 2022

March 2022

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460 Reads

Ecology Letters

The cover image is based on the Letter AVONET: morphological, ecological and geographical data for all birds by Tobias et al., https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13898. The sword‐billed hummingbird (Ensifera ensifera) is exquisitely adapted to its trophic niche as an aerial pollinator of flowerings plants (angiosperms) in the high Andes. A new global dataset of detailed ecomorphological traits for all birds offers a resource with numerous potential uses in ecology, evolution, and conservation biology. Image Credit: Cover Image © Oliver Krüger. Reproduced with permission.


Citations (62)


... Currently, correlative species distribution modelling (SDM) provides the most accessible approach to predicting climate-related species extinction risk. This involves assessing spatially explicit changes in habitat suitability and identifying climatic refugia (Draper et al. 2019;Gavin et al. 2014;Guisan et al. 2013;Zurell et al. 2023). However, there are many limitations and uncertainties due to conceptual and methodological challenges inherent to SDM predictions, which must be considered and properly addressed, particularly in the context of risk assessments, conservation planning, and management (Davies et al. 2023;Draper et al. 2019;Zurell et al. 2023). ...

Reference:

Consequence of habitat specificity: a rising risk of habitat loss for endemic and sub-endemic woody species under climate change in the Hyrcanian ecoregion
Predicting extinctions with species distribution models
Cambridge Prisms: Extinction

Cambridge Prisms: Extinction

... A recently completed comprehensive phylogenetic framework 7 enables us to consider the geography of butter y phylogenetic diversity. Assessments of the phylogenetic aspect of insect biodiversity at large scale are still sparse, but offer important opportunities to determine the degree of congruence with traditional diversity measures 20 . We nd that phylogenetic diversity (PD, de ned as deviation from a realm-level null expectation) peaks at about 20° latitude and at elevations of 3000 m and 4000 m (Fig 1c). ...

Utilizing multi-objective decision support tools for protected area selection
  • Citing Article
  • September 2023

One Earth

... Plants have evolved alongside herbivory pressure, including from mammalian megafauna, for the last 50 million years (Butler et al., 2010;Huang et al., 2023;Sanisidro et al., 2023) and therefore have directly and indirectly developed a wide diversity of traits to avoid, resist and tolerate being eaten (Charles-Dominique et al., 2016;Dantas & Pausas, 2020;Dawkins et al., 1979). Here, we use the definitions of these strategies sensu Archibald et al. (2019), where before defoliation, plants exist along an avoidance-attractance spectrum (i.e. ...

Environmental Change and Body Size Evolution in Neogene Large Mammals
  • Citing Chapter
  • August 2023

... Insect herbivory is responsible for the consumption of approximately 18% of all biomasses produced annually in tropical forests-the Earth's largest reservoir of abundance and diversity of herbivorous insects (Basset et al., 2012;Janzen & Schoener, 1968). While insects population are experiencing global changes at unprecedented levels, with many losers and a few winning species (Didham et al., 2020; Sánchez-Bayo & Wyckhuys, 2019), very little is known about the functional consequences of these changes on eco-evolutionary processes maintained by herbivore insects and whether such changes might jeopardise the potential compensatory effects in the face of concomitant defaunation of large herbivores (Albrecht et al., 2023;Williams et al., 2021). Additionally, bacteria, viruses and fungi that infect leaf cells cause necrosis of the foliar tissues and might sometimes develop serious diseases that compromise plants' fitness (Bell et al., 2006;García-Guzmán & Dirzo, 2001;Gilbert, 2002;Mordecai, 2011). ...

Fossil leaves reveal drivers of herbivore functional diversity during the Cenozoic
  • Citing Article
  • July 2023

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

... ). Studies on biodiversity hotspots can be combined with species distribution modeling to link present and future areas of evolutionary interest under different climate change scenariosQian et al., 2023;Rodriguez et al., 2022;Voskamp et al., 2022), allowing for more data-driven conservation approaches in the face of global change. As proposed byBrooks et al. (2015), this concept could be included in the definition of Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs), defined by the IUCN as "sites that contribute significantly to the global persistence of biodiversity".Bold application of approaches to enhance evolutionary potential combined with novel techniques offers possibilities to preserve target species and entire ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic stress, by enhancing resilience and mitigating the impacts of disturbance. ...

Projected climate change impacts on the phylogenetic diversity of the world's terrestrial birds: More than species numbers
Proceedings of the Royal Society B

Proceedings of the Royal Society B

... Our results generally support the consensus that trait-matching is an important phenomenon in plant-frugivore interactions (Bender et al., 2018;Lim et al., 2020;McFadden et al., 2022;Wheelwright, 1985) but our analyses come with some caveats. Data coverage appears to be a significant issue as evident from the sensitivity of the trait-matching patterns to various cut-offs, and will likely be true for other comparative analyses reliant on species-level checklists of interaction information. ...

Global plant‐frugivore trait matching is shaped by climate and biogeographic history

Ecology Letters

... Preliminary, unpublished findings indicate that the bird diversity is substantial, with a recorded total of over 200 species (Lacerda, 2024). Granivorous birds such as the village weaver (Ploceus cucullatus) predominate in the rice fields, but more than 45 invertivorous species also occur (Tobias et al., 2022), some of which are common. More than 25 species of insectivorous bats were recorded in the area, with notable abundance in edge and open space foragers of the genera Scotophilus, Scotoecus and Mops, and gleaners such as Nycteris sp. ...

AVONET: morphological, ecological and geographical data for all birds

Ecology Letters

... So far, studies on seed disperser behaviour have typically focused on variation among species (e.g. González-Castro et al., 2022;Nowak et al., 2022;Schupp, 1993). For instance, studies on avian seed dispersal have shown that the movement behaviour of different bird species is strongly associated with their morphological traits (e.g. ...

Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains

Global Ecology and Biogeography

... In contrast, for Central America there remains a lack of studies projecting and comparing multiple pressures in a common system and at a fine resolution suitable for conservation planning. Furthermore, since time and resources for conservation actions are limited, special focus needs to be put on the most critical areas (Hannah et al 2020, Jung et al 2021, Voskamp et al 2022. Particularly in view of unprotected KBAs and the need to strengthen efforts to achieve global biodiversity targets (IPBES 2019), information on potential pressures in areas of interest for biodiversity conservation is crucial to have a chance to mitigate them. ...

How to resolve conflicting conservation objectives: A decision support tool for the global selection of multi-purpose protected areas

... How fruit size relates to the occurrence of species across islands should also be influenced by environmental conditions that dictate whether sufficient resources are available for fruit production (Moles et al., 2007). In the warm, wet, aseasonal tropics where net primary productivity is high and resources readily available, energetic disadvantages of producing large fruit should decrease (Bonte et al., 2012;Joswig et al., 2022;McFadden et al., 2022). In addition, in the low light understorey of wet tropical forest, larger fruit with larger seeds (with greater stored resources) should increase the chance of germination and seedling growth (Moles et al., 2007). ...

Global plant-frugivore trait matching is shaped by climate and biogeographic history