Rob Hinch's research while affiliated with University of Oxford and other places
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Publications (4)
The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and the agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50–80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and...
The timing of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is a critical factor to understand the epidemic trajectory and the impact of isolation, contact tracing and other non- pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 epidemics. We examined the distribution of transmission events with respect to exposure and onset of symptoms. We show that for symptomati...
Citations
... Following full text screening of 358 studies, 40 ar cles were included, having met our eligibility criteria. A further six eligible studies were iden fied through screening reference lists of included studies, [61][62][63][64][65][66] and one addi onal study was discovered through searching for papers describing the European COVID-19 Scenario Hub models, 67 giving a total of 47 studies included in our review. Out of the 47 included studies, there were 40 unique models; five models were used in more than one paper. ...
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... A scaling of risk in proportion to duration follows from microbial risk assessment expectations. Infectiousness was scored as either 'standard', 'high' (2.5×) or zero depending on the timing of exposure relative to the index case symptom onset date (or positive test date when no symptom onset was recorded) 23,25 . For ease of interpretation we normalized risk score such that it equals 1 for an exposure at 2 m distance from an index case with standard infectiousness for 15 min (that is, the typical threshold for manual contact tracing), implying a maximum possible score of 20. ...
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... Common distributions for epidemiological delays in the literature include the gamma, lognormal, and Weibull distributions [45]. For delays that can have negative values, distributions that can accept negative values, such as the skew-normal or skew-logistic distributions [46], may be used, or less ideally, the delay data may be shifted to allow for fitting of distributions that only allow positive numbers [47]. Mixture distributions may be appropriate for some delays and should also be considered [48][49][50][51]. ...
