Richard J. Terrile's research while affiliated with California Institute of Technology and other places

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Publications (106)


Common Support Graphs. Note: The red bars above the line are observations treated (selected) and matched (on-support); green above the line observations are treated and unmatched (off-support); blue below the line observations are matched untreated (non-selected) observations. Firms are off support (unmatched) if their pre-selection characteristics conducive to selection are too high (low) to be matched to a non-selected (selected) counterpart (Color figure online)
Helping the Little Guy: the impact of government awards on small technology firms
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  • Publisher preview available

June 2022

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72 Reads

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14 Citations

The Journal of Technology Transfer

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Andrea Belz

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Fernando Zapatero

The Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program provides federally funded research awards to companies with 500 or fewer employees. We explore the differential effects of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration SBIR program on firms of various sizes on their future patenting activity. Using propensity score matching, we construct comparable samples of selected and non-selected Phase II SBIR applicants by firm size. We then estimate the effect of selection for the matched sample on the probability of forward patent activity and conditional on any forward patenting, the count of patents within three years of the proposal. While firms with fewer than 10 employees, are least likely to patent, their probability of patenting is positively affected by receiving a Phase II award. We find sparse evidence of corresponding increase for larger firms. Nor do we find any evidence that a Phase II award impacts the conditional number of forward patents in the three years following the award. These data suggest that the Phase II award serves to advance the smallest teams "over the hump" to creating a potential source of competitive advantage.

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Gender Differences in Peer Review of Innovation

May 2022

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23 Reads

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8 Citations

Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal

Research Summary Gender differences in peer review and the associated impact on innovation financing are well documented but less well understood. We study peer review in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Small Business Innovation Research program, a public initiative seeking to increase women's access to innovation funds. We theorize that reviewers use status characteristics inappropriately as heuristics and create gender bias. Econometric analysis shows evidence of direct bias against female applicants, an effect linked to challenges for newcomers in demonstrating individual legitimacy rather than concerns about the organizational legitimacy of the associated firm. We also demonstrate a corrective redistribution to reverse this bias and create equity in the funding outcome. As these results negatively impact diversity in innovation, we propose policy recommendations to overcome this bias. Managerial Summary Peer review is an important mechanism to rank and select technical proposals for funding. We examine the role of gender in a government program conducting this process. Controlling for the proposal quality and other factors, we show that the gender of the proposer is linked to lower scores. This effect is associated with proposals from females who are new to the program, suggesting their challenges in demonstrating credibility as leaders of these projects, and exacerbated by the fact that women represent a disproportionately high share of newcomers. Subsequently, the program reverses this bias such that the funding outcomes do not show the same inequities. This has important implications for policies supporting gender diversity in innovation.





Mapping the “Valley of Death”: Managing Selection and Technology Advancement in NASA's Small Business Innovation Research Program

May 2019

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100 Reads

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28 Citations

IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management

In this paper, we determine the risk mitigation process inherent in managing a portfolio of technologies diverse in both their readiness for infusion and the nature of the performing organization, focusing on the so-called “valley of death” in which the technology's principles have been proven but prototypes have yet to be developed. Using the Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) of projects funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Small Business Innovation Research program, a two-stage competitive process, we find that the result of selection of the first round is a tendency toward larger companies. In the second round of funding, technology maturity is a stronger determinant of selection and company headcount is no longer a statistically significant driver. This combination allows the program to manage risk and deliver real technical advancement from even the smallest companies. We find that technologies typically advance from TRL 2, concept formulation, at the program's outset to roughly TRL 5, component validation, at the program's conclusion; these outcomes precede economic benefits from the subsidy. These findings illuminate a mechanism to address risk as well as demonstrating the technical outcomes of a managed early-stage technology program.





Calibrating the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale using NASA mission data

June 2015

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147 Reads

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14 Citations

This paper seeks to assess the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale in order to understand its ability to provide estimates of the forward costs of developing a new technology to a state of flight readiness. TRLs are in common use throughout NASA, industry and military organizations and are characterized by being easy to determine using a set of well-defined parameters. However, the TRL scale is not calibrated to any consistent unit and the relative size of TRL steps are not linear and can vary for different technologies. We use archived cost data from a variety of recent NASA flight missions and from several technology-heavy instrument suites on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). Development costs are extracted at the time of several NASA life cycle review milestones. We relate the project requirements associated with these defined milestones with approximate TRL steps and use the cost data as a proxy for TRL step costs. When corrected for programmatic variations in time spent at each TRL step, the NASA mission data demonstrated a 30% reduction in variability, illustrating how unexpected events mask a more stable progression of technology development. A calibrated TRL scale is determined with an 'S-curve' shape to TRL growth. The steepest step sizes are in the TRL 6 to 8 range, matching the region of technology maturation known to be a difficult barrier to traverse.


Citations (53)


... Research on women's entrepreneurship has, however, seen significant progress, including studies on women's role, challenges, and contributions to economic growth (Bauweraerts et al., 2022;Bullough et al., 2022;Zastempowski & Cyfert, 2021). Furthermore, that studies that analyze women's entrepreneurship often compare the roles of women and men in entrepreneurship (Belz et al., 2022;Lerner & Malach-Pines, 2011;Phipps et al., 2015) and examine the motivations and characteristics of women entrepreneurs (Bouguerra, 2015;Carter et al., 2012), as well as the challenges they face in acquiring and mobilizing resources (Liñán et al., 2020). Other studies have explored how context has influenced women entrepreneurs (Baker & Welter, 2018;Welter, 2011;Zahra et al., 2014) and how they establish their networks and navigate entrepreneurial ecosystems (Covin et al., 2016;McAdam et al., 2019;Su et al., 2015). ...

Reference:

The effects of context and characteristics of women entrepreneurs on innovation performance
Gender Differences in Peer Review of Innovation
  • Citing Article
  • May 2022

Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal

... Patents -Patents are considered as an indicator of a firm's competitiveness and innovativeness, and are also an important outcome of R&D subsidy program targeting SMEs [55]. In addition, the number of patents held has a considerable impact on the survival of new firms, with recent studies showing that new firms with more patents are less likely to go bankrupt [56]. ...

Helping the Little Guy: the impact of government awards on small technology firms

The Journal of Technology Transfer

... This challenging phase, also recognized between TRLs 5 and 7 by other studies, is characterized by the difficulty in advancing technologies due to the industry's reluctance to adopt innovations that have not reached a higher stage of maturity, typically TRL 7 or 8 [79]. The TRL scale, a well-known nine-level methodology for assessing technological maturity, is widely used in the aerospace industry to guide the development of innovations from initial conception to full commercialization [9]. ...

Mapping the “Valley of Death”: Managing Selection and Technology Advancement in NASA's Small Business Innovation Research Program
  • Citing Article
  • May 2019

IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management

... Various government programs can provide financial assistance through grants or small loans, and thereby promote minority small businesses through fairness, equality, and access to the application process for all entrepreneurs (Amin, Danakin, & Divichenko, 2016). Thus, minority small businesses may benefit from the assistance of governmental agencies (Giga, Belz, Terrile, & Zapatero, 2018) and minority small business associations (Clark-Gill, 2016). ...

Helping the Little Guy: The Impact of Government Grants on Small Technology Firms
  • Citing Article
  • January 2017

SSRN Electronic Journal

... The concept of the "valley of death" illustrates one of the greatest obstacles in the innovation lifecycle, identified specifically between technology readiness levels (TRLs) 5 and 6, a phase in which a technology is validated in a relevant environment but has not yet been demonstrated in an operational context [36]. This challenging phase, also recognized between TRLs 5 and 7 by other studies, is characterized by the difficulty in advancing technologies due to the industry's reluctance to adopt innovations that have not reached a higher stage of maturity, typically TRL 7 or 8 [79]. The TRL scale, a well-known nine-level methodology for assessing technological maturity, is widely used in the aerospace industry to guide the development of innovations from initial conception to full commercialization [9]. ...

Calibrating the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale using NASA mission data
  • Citing Article
  • June 2015

... Firstly, the RRR is an integrative framework for policy or decision-making that is comprehensive and impartial, as noted by Roberts (2023). Specifically, there are other frameworks that focus on aspects like risk-and-reward (Terrile, Jackson & Belz, 2014;Ferràs-Hernández, 2023) and risk-and-resilience (Mochizuki et al., 2018). However, a notable limitation of RRR is its reluctance to provide guidance on how to assess the relative importance of different risks and rewards or how to balance them with considerations of resilience (Roberts, 2023). ...

Consideration of risk and reward in balancing technology portfolios
  • Citing Conference Paper
  • March 2014

... The situation is different for what concerns close stellar companions within the planet or BD orbits. Several cases of planets and BD in circumbinary configuration are known [157], e.g., TWA 5 [158], HD 106906 [157,159], HIP 79098 [160], and b Cen [161]. In some cases the inner binary orbit is not properly characterized. ...

A Candidate Substellar Companion to CoD -33(deg) 7795 (TWA 5)

... Terrill (Ref. 1) shows that such organization face clear impediments to innovation such as: 1) Engineering Culture 2) Risk Identification and Mitigation 3) Compartmentalization 4) Predicting the Future from Extrapolating the Past Engineering culture is oriented toward "finding the fault", in fact; engineering works best in organizations that manage to set aside fault finding as personal attacks, but instead work in open and trusting collaborate to lay all such bear for correction. This is a difficult proposition, requiring a great deal of faith in one's teammates. ...

Pathways and challenges to innovation in aerospace
  • Citing Article
  • December 2011

IEEE Aerospace and Electronic Systems Magazine

... The same retrieval techniques used to solve the inverse problem for Solar System's bodies and the Earth atmospheres are used in exoplanetary science, after the discovery in 1995 of the first exoplanet orbiting a main-sequence star (Terrile et al., 2005;Irwin et al., 2008;Madhusudhan and Seager, 2009;Seager, 2012a, 2013;Waldmann et al., 2015a,b). ...

Retrieval of ExtraSolar Planetary Spectra Using Evolutionary Computational Methods
  • Citing Article
  • December 2005

... In space, the extreme sensitivity and optical stability of the Hubble space telescope (HST) makes it an ideal facility for high-contrast imaging. Three HST instruments include a coronagraphic channel, NICMOS (operational from 1997 to 1999 and from 2002 until 2008 [16]), ACS (installed in 2002 and observing in the visible, still active but the high-resolution channel which included the coronagraph was permanently disabled in 2007 [17]) and STIS (operational from 1997 to 2004 and from 2009 until now, observing in the visible [18]). The HST instruments, designed long before the first exoplanet was imaged, are multi-purpose, with rudimentary coronagraphs that are not optimized for exoplanet imaging. ...

Exploration of the environments of nearby stars with the NICMOS coronagraph: instrumental performance considerations
  • Citing Article
  • August 1998

Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering