Peter G. Jones's research while affiliated with Colegio Bennett Cali Colombia and other places

Publications (18)

Article
Agricultural modellers often need detailed soil profile data with which to run their models. We combine an extensive soil profile database with the Harmonized World Soil Database, a 30. arcsecond raster database of soil information worldwide, and describe a statistical process to identify representative soil profiles for each of its 188 distinct so...
Article
We describe a generalised downscaling and data generation method that takes the outputs of a General Circulation Model and allows the stochastic generation of daily weather data that are to some extent characteristic of future climatologies. Such data can then be used to drive any agricultural model that requires daily (or otherwise aggregated) wea...
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Agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa faces daunting challenges, which climate change and increasing climate variability will compound in vulnerable areas. The impacts of a changing climate on agricultural production in a world that warms by 4°C or more are likely to be severe in places. The livelihoods of many croppers and livestock keepe...
Article
The East African region exhibits considerable climatic and topographic variability. Much spatial and temporal variation in the response of different crops to climate change can thus be anticipated. In previous work we showed that a large part of this variation can be explained in terms of temperature and, to a lesser extent, water effects. Here, we...
Article
The impacts of climate change are expected to be generally detrimental for agriculture in many parts of Africa. Overall, warming and drying may reduce crop yields by 10–20% to 2050, but there are places where losses are likely to be much more severe. Increasing frequencies of heat stress, drought and flooding events will result in yet further delet...
Article
There is general consensus that the impacts of climate change on agriculture will add significantly to the development challenges of ensuring food security and reducing poverty, particularly in Africa. While these changes will influence agriculture at a broad scale, regional or country-level assessments can miss critical detail. We use high-resolut...
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Climate change and increasing climate variability threaten the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), and some of the worst effects on human health and agriculture will be in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in vulnerable regions. The relationships between climate change and the vulnerability of resource-poor croppers and livestock k...
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Ecophysiological models are increasingly used as research and decision support tools in agriculture, but it is often difficult to assess how suitable a model is for a particular application. Model evaluations usually involve bivariate linear regression between observed and simulated values, which assumes statistical independence among observed valu...
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We developed interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas (excluding Antarctica) at a spatial resolution of 30 arc s (often referred to as 1-km spatial resolution). The climate elements considered were monthly precipitation and mean, minimum, and maximum temperature. Input data were gathered from a variety of sources and, where possible, wer...
Article
Whitefly-transmitted geminiviruses are the most important constraint to the production of common bean and vegetable crops in the tropical lowlands and mid-altitude valleys of Latin America. Currently, over 30 distinct species of geminiviruses that are transmitted by the whitefly Bemisia tabaci infect common bean, tomato, pepper, cucurbits and other...
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Climate change science has been discussed and synthesized by the world's best minds at unprecedented scales. Now that the Kyoto Protocol may become a reality, it is time to be realistic about the likelihood of success of mitigation activities. Pastoral lands in the tropics hold tremendous sequestration potential but also strong challenges to potent...
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plant species are threatened globally, equivalent to some 12.5% of the estimated world flora. Other estimates The conservation status of wild Arachis spp. is not well charactersuggest that 25 to 35% of plant genetic diversity could ized for its maintenance and possible future exploitation for the improvement of cultivated peanut, Arachis hypogaea L...
Article
The impacts of climate change on agriculture may add significantly to the development challenges of ensuring food security and reducing poverty. We show the possible impacts on maize production in Africa and Latin America to 2055, using high-resolution methods to generate characteristic daily weather data for driving a detailed simulation model of...
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Full-text available
"Making decisions in natural resource management involves an understanding of the risk and uncertainty of the outcomes, such as crop failure or cattle starvation, and of the normal spread of the expected production. Hedging against poor outcomes often means lack of investment and slow adoption of new methods. At the household level, production inst...
Article
A software package to generate daily weather data for Latin America and Africa is described. The program is based on a stochastic weather generator that uses a third-order Markov process to model daily weather data. The model has been fitted to data from more than 9200 stations with long runs of daily data throughout the world. The climate normals...

Citations

... Then, the eliminated values were supplemented using the Savitzky-Golay (S-G) filter [54] and the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method [55]. The elevation and soil texture data were collected from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) [56] and Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) [57], respectively. In addition, the yearly land cover product (MCD12Q1) [58] was also applied to explore the influence of agricultural drought on cropland in the GMS. ...
... were used in the present study using a web based software tool MarkSim online software web version for IPCC AR5 data (CMIP5). MarkSim GCM is a spatially explicit daily weather generator that uses third order Markov chain climate simulator and has been found suitable for tropical countries like Ethiopia (Jones and Thornton, 2013). Moreover, it does not depend on the long term climate data and does not need recalibration, as it is already calibrated (Jones and Thornton, 2003). ...
... & Rigoni is known as a wild perennial Arachis species, belongs to sect. Extranervosae, with prefers to grow in soils consisting of angular gravel (Jarvis et al. 2003). It is widely distributed in the south of 14 � 30 0 S, where flooded places or places subject to flooding (Krapovickas et al. 2007). ...
... In this study, two categories of data have been used. MarkSim weather generator uses third-order Markov chain for downscaling precipitation data (Jones and Thornton, 2000;Jones et al., 2002) and a Richardson 1989's based method for downscaling minimum and maximum temperature and radiation data (Jones and Thornton 2013). The data were obtained from (http:// gismap. ...
... Till now, 7.5% of the total grasslands of the world have already been degraded, and in continuation, most grasslands are still vulnerable to degradation because of intensive grazing for higher livestock production. Africa's rangelands are greatly affected and face pressure to fulfill the increasing supply of milk and beef in the subcontinent (Reid et al. 2004). It has been reported that about 49% of the world's grassland and approximately 50% of natural grassland has undergone degradation to various extent due to land mismanagement, and several countries have brought a large area of grazing and grasslands under cultivation (Gibbs & Salmon 2015). ...
... Species data are mostly related to climate variables based on long-term means (climatologies) baselines to represent current climate conditions. One of the most widely used sources of climatological variables for land studies come from the freely available repositories WorldClim (Hijmans et al., 2005) and its updated version WorldClim2 (Fick & Hijmans, 2017). WorldClim makes available baseline conditions consisting of a long-term average over 30 years (1960( -1990( in Worldclim 1.4, 1970( -2000 in Worldclim 2.1). ...
... Besides seeking help, households may also pursue other strategies as part of their coping strategies. Many examples, which include temporary migration to find employment, longer workdays, collecting wild berries and collecting forest products for sale are noted (Thornton et al. 2009). ...
... Greater occurrence of these events will likely strain these communities and undermine their long-term sustainability. Idiosyncratic environmental shocks tend to (though not always) disproportionately affect rain-fed agriculture and large livestock like cattle more than small livestock such as sheep and goats (Jones & Thornton, 2009;Seo & Mendelsohn, 2008). On average, then, we would expect that shocks would damage food security from rain-fed agriculture and reduce cattle numbers -at least for those whose agricultural systems are not well-insulated from the effects of climate change, such as pastoralists and smallholder farmers. ...
... We forecast a range of crop and ecosystem responses that will aect ma1or agricultural processes due to variation in climate, changing temperature, precipitatio~ ~atterns, and o~her aspects of global change. Changes in soil moisture, p~st ~~tivity: and plant diseases are just a few of these effects, all of which have a s1gruficant impact on food production and food security (Fuhrer, 2003;Jones and Thornton, 2003). A~iotic and biotic stresses are predicted to rise as a result of these changes, makmg agricultural systems more susceptible to disruption in the future. ...
... Arid regions such as North Africa and West Asia suffer from low rainfall relative to evapotranspiration ( Figure 1) and would suffer from even more reduced precipitation in the future which, without adaptation measures, would wreak havoc on agricultural production (El-Beltagy & Madkour, 2012;Assane & Waounde, 2023). And even locations in arid regions which may experience increased precipitation would have unfavorable timing and distribution for agricultural production, i.e. it would be accompanied by increased intensity (Thornton et al., 2010). There is no shortage of data on the anticipated negative impacts of climate change on crop production and native vegetation in arid regions without suitable adaptation measures (Howden et al., 2007;Schlenker & Lobel, 2010;Abdullah et al., 2024). ...