Peter A. Henrys's research while affiliated with UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and other places

Publications (27)

Article
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Species distribution modelling is a highly used tool for understanding and predicting biodiversity change, and recent work has emphasised the importance of understanding how species distributions change over both time and space. Spatio‐temporal models require large amounts of data spread over time and space, and as such are clear candidates to bene...
Article
In order to better quantify spatial and temporal patterns in freshwater biodiversity, and potential underlying drivers of change, we must utilise the increasingly broad range of data available on freshwater ecosystems. Statistical advances in the field of integrated modelling provide new opportunities to further our understanding through the combin...
Article
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Cropping decisions affect the nature, timing and intensity of agricultural management strategies. Specific crop rotations are associated with different environmental impacts, which can be beneficial or detrimental. The ability to map, characterise and accurately predict rotations enables targeting of mitigation measures where most needed and foreca...
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Digital twins are increasingly important in many domains, including for understanding and managing the natural environment. Digital twins of the natural environment are fueled by the unprecedented amounts of environmental data now available from a variety of sources from remote sensing to potentially dense deployment of earth‐based sensors. Because...
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The riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) flux is of similar magnitude to the terrestrial sink for atmospheric CO2, but the factors controlling it remain poorly determined and are largely absent from Earth system models (ESMs). Here, we show, for a range of European headwater catchments, that electrolyte solubility theory explains how declining p...
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Mappings play an important role in environmental science applications by allowing practitioners to monitor changes at national and global scales. Over the last decade, it has become increasingly popular to use satellite imagery data and machine learning techniques (MLTs) to construct such maps. Given the black-box nature of many of these MLTs thoug...
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Due to rising demand for both food and environmental services, agriculture is increasingly required to deliver multiple outcomes. Characterising differences, across agricultural landscapes, via the identification of broad archetypal groupings, is an important step in exploring spatial patterns in the capacity of land to deliver these potentially co...
Article
Long-term change and shorter-term variability in the atmospheric deposition of pollutants and marine salts can have major effects on the biogeochemistry and ecology of soils and surface water ecosystems. In the 1980s, at the time of peak acid deposition in the UK, deposition loads were highly dependent on prevailing weather types, and it was postul...
Article
Model-based studies of agricultural systems often rely on the analyst defining realistic crop sequences. This usually involves relying on a few ‘typical rotations’ that are used in baseline scenarios. These may not account for the variation in farming practices across a region, however, as farmer decision making about which crops to grow is influen...
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The Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (GMEP) ran from 2013 until 2016 and was probably the most comprehensive programme of ecological study ever undertaken at a national scale in Wales. The programme aimed to (1) set up an evaluation of the environmental effects of the Glastir agri-environment scheme and (2) quantify environmental status...
Preprint
Full-text available
The Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (GMEP) ran from 2013 until 2016, and was probably the most comprehensive programme of ecological study ever undertaken at a national scale in Wales. The programme aimed to (1) set up an evaluation of the environmental effects of the Glastir agri-environment scheme and (2) quantify environmental status...
Article
The effects of atmospheric pollution on plant species richness (nsp) are of widespread concern. We carried out a modelling exercise to estimate how nsp in British semi-natural ecosystems responded to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (Ndep) and sulphur (Sdep) between 1800 and 2010. We derived a simple four-parameter equation relating nsp to measur...
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Numerical models are essential tools for understanding the complex and dynamic nature of the natural environment. The ability to evaluate how well these models represent reality is critical in their use and future development. This study presents a combination of changepoint analysis and fuzzy logic to assess the ability of numerical models to capt...
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Estimation of the impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on ecosystems and biodiversity is a research imperative. Analyses of large-scale spatial gradients, where an observed response is correlated with measured or modelled deposition, have been an important source of evidence. A number of problems beset this approach. For example, if respo...
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Digital technology is having a major impact on many areas of society, and there is equal opportunity for impact on science. This is particularly true in the environmental sciences as we seek to understand the complexities of the natural environment under climate change. This perspective presents the outcomes of a summit in this area, a unique cross...
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In recent years, there has been a drive toward more open, cross-disciplinary science taking center stage. This has presented a number of challenges, including providing research platforms for collaborating scientists to explore big data, develop methods, and disseminate their results to stakeholders and decision makers. We present our vision of a “...
Article
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Species distribution models are popular and widely applied ecological tools. Recent increases in data availability have led to opportunities and challenges for species distribution modelling. Each data source has different qualities, determined by how it was collected. As several data sources can inform on a single species, ecologists have often an...
Article
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Questions How can we quantify changes in the distribution and abundance of injurious weed species (Senecio jacobaea, Cirsium vulgare, C. arvense, Rumex obtusifolius, R. crispus and Urtica dioica ), over long time periods at wide geographical scales? What impact do these species have on plant communities? To what extent are changes driven by anthrop...
Preprint
Full-text available
Estimation of the impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on ecosystems and biodiversity is a research imperative. Analyses of large-scale spatial gradients, where an observed response is correlated with measured or modelled deposition, have been an important source of evidence. A number of problems beset this approach. For example, if respo...
Article
Full-text available
Environmental data allows us to monitor the constantly changing environment that we live in. It allows us to study trends and helps us to develop better models to describe processes in our environment and they, in turn, can provide information to improve management practices. To ensure that the data are reliable for analysis and interpretation, the...
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Zoonotic diseases affect resource-poor tropical communities disproportionately, and are linked to human use and modification of ecosystems. Disentangling the socio-ecological mechanisms by which ecosystem change precipitates impacts of pathogens is critical for predicting disease risk and designing effective intervention strategies. Despite the glo...
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The UK Countryside Survey (CS) is a national long-term survey of soils and vegetation that spans three decades (1978–2007). Past studies using CS data have identified clear contrasting trends in topsoil organic carbon (tSOC) concentrations (0–15 cm) related to differences between habitat types. Here we firstly examine changes in tSOC resulting from...
Chapter
The use of land cover mappings built using remotely sensed imagery data has become increasingly popular in recent years. However, these mappings are ultimately only models. Consequently, it is vital for one to be able to assess and verify the quality of a mapping and quantify uncertainty for any estimates that are derived from them in a reliable ma...
Article
Full-text available
With the expansion in the quantity and types of biodiversity data being collected, there is a need to find ways to combine these different sources to provide cohesive summaries of species' potential and realized distributions in space and time. Recently, model-based data integration has emerged as a means to achieve this by combining datasets in wa...
Article
Full-text available
Data science is the science of extracting meaning from potentially complex data. This is a fast moving field, drawing principles and techniques from a number of different disciplinary areas including computer science, statistics and complexity science. Data science is having a profound impact on a number of areas including commerce, health, and sma...

Citations

... After data collection by citizen scientists and data validation through experts, the results could be shared with local, regional, or national environmental agencies, such as the German Environment Agency (UBA) or the National Monitoring Centre for Biodiversity (NMZB). Integrated modelling approaches could be used to combine citizen science data with official monitoring data to better assess freshwater status and pressures (Jarvis et al. 2023). Based on these new, partly citizen science -driven insights, agencies could apply ecoregion-specific ecological criteria for stream health according to the WFD (e.g., at least status class II "good" for SPEAR pesticides and hydromorphology) and initiate more detailed field investigations or improvement measures together with local citizen science groups if these criteria are repeatedly not met (see von Gönner et al. 2023a, Stankiewicz et al. 2023. ...
... The paper by Blair and Henrys (2023) discusses the role of data science in the digital twins of the natural environment, focusing on how the resulting data models can work alongside the rich legacy of process models that exist in this domain. ...
... The concentrations of dissolved natural organic matter (DNOM) have increased in most northern freshwaters. This rise is attributed to several factors, including the reduced impact of acid rain [1], a warmer and wetter climate [2,3], and growing biomass [4,5], though not consistently [6]. Still, many acid-sensitive surface waters recovering from acid deposition are reverting from anthropogenic acidification to natural acidity [7], with the increased anionic charge from DNOM contributing considerably to the total anionic charge. ...
... We generate a base landcover map for Great Britain by combining the UKCEH Landcover Map (Morton et al. 2020) and crop map (Land Cover Plus: Crops; Upcott et al. 2023) for the year 2019 and overlaying the locations of priority habitats given in the Natural England Priority Habitat Inventory (Natural England 2014), followed by urban green spaces from OS Open Greenspace Map, surface water features from OS Open Rivers and OS District Map, multi-carriageway roads from OS Open Roads, and railways from OS District Map (Ordnance Survey 2022). In addition, we separate semi-natural grasslands and heathlands into upland (> 300m) and lowland sub-categories using the OS Terrain 50 dataset (Ordnance Survey 2022). ...
... Jupyter Notebook is an integrated development environment for R and Python that can function either on-or offline and allows for the blending of narrative text, mathematics, and executable code [7]. Jupyter Notebook is an open-source platform that provides an excellent learning environment for students and a better graphics interface than the original R platform [8]. Jupyter Notebook can improve the ability of graduate students in medical fields to learn epidemiological data analysis by providing an interactive and collaborative environment that allows for more efficient and effective learning [9]. ...
... Every individual farm is a unique combination of landscape and environmental context and management options implemented at multiple spatial and temporal scales. While it is possible to generalise farm types in terms of broad environmental constraints and farming systems (Goodwin et al., 2022;Rodríguez, van ...
... Precipitation chemistry data are crucial for our understanding of local and global atmospheric element cycling and for an assessment of corresponding anthropogenic impacts (Ahmed et al., 1990;Decina et al., 2019;Liotta et al., 2021;Riechelmann et al., 2022;Tso et al., 2022;Vet et al., 2014). Moreover, precipitation is the initial solvent or "titrant" in hydrogeochemical systems (Edmunds, 2010) and its major ion concentrations are required as input data for hydrochemical models (Christofi et al., 2020;Paukert et al., 2012;Solder and Jurgens, 2020). ...
... These data were collected as part of the Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Programme field measurement programme in Wales Wood et al., 2021). In total, 300 individual 1 km squares were randomly selected from within land classification strata in proportion to their extent across Wales in order to be representative of the range of habitat types across Wales or targeted to areas with high potential for agri-environment scheme uptake (Wood et al., 2021). ...
... We matched site conditions to an area of intense agricultural production in the east of the UK with medium clay content soils. We simulated realistic cropping sequences for that region (defined as UKH level 1 NUTS 22 ) using a transition matrix describing the probability www.nature.com/scientificreports/ of growing a series of crops given the previous crop 23 . Our simulation was, therefore, relevant to the large central and south-eastern wheat growing areas in the UK that also experience high weed pressure, including from herbicide-resistant Alopecurus myosuroides 24 . ...
... Furthermore, soil pH affects the solubility of nutrients required by vegetation growth and the migration of nutrients in the soil, thus affecting the absorption of these elements by plants, vegetation growth and carbon storage (Ghiloufi and Chaieb 2021). In addition, Tipping et al (2021) found that soil pH also has an impact on plant species richness. In addition, human activities also make the uncertainty of vegetation carbon balance significantly increased. ...