Kevin T. Wright's research while affiliated with University of California, Irvine and other places

The 8.2 ka event is the most significant global climate anomaly of the Holocene epoch, but a lack of records from Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) currently limits our understanding of the spatial and temporal extent of the climate response. A newly developed speleothem record from Tham Doun Mai Cave, Northern Laos provides the first high‐resolution record of this event in MSEA. Our multiproxy record (δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, and petrographic data), anchored in time by 9 U‐Th ages, reveals a significant reduction in local rainfall amount and weakening of the monsoon at the event onset at ∼8.29 ± 0.03 ka BP. This response lasts for a minimum of ∼170 years, similar to event length estimates from other speleothem δ¹⁸O monsoon records. Interestingly, however, our δ¹³C and Mg/Ca data, proxies for local hydrology, show that abrupt changes to local rainfall amounts began decades earlier (∼70 years) than registered in the δ¹⁸O. Moreover, the δ¹³C and Mg/Ca also show that reductions in rainfall continued for at least ∼200 years longer than the weakening of the monsoon inferred from the δ¹⁸O. Our interpretations suggest that drier conditions brought on by the 8.2 ka event in MSEA were felt beyond the temporal boundaries defined by δ¹⁸O‐inferred monsoon intensity, and an initial wet period (or precursor event) may have preceded the local drying. Most existing Asian Monsoon proxy records of the 8.2 ka event may lack the resolution and/or multiproxy information necessary to establish local and regional hydrological sensitivity to abrupt climate change.

The timing and mechanisms of past hydroclimate change in northeast Mexico are poorly constrained, limiting our ability to evaluate climate model performance. To address this, we present a multiproxy speleothem record of past hydroclimate variability spanning 62.5 to 5.1 ka from Tamaulipas, Mexico. Here we show a strong influence of Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperatures on orbital and millennial scale precipitation changes in the region. Multiple proxies show no clear response to insolation forcing, but strong evidence for dry conditions during Heinrich Stadials. While these trends are consistent with other records from across Mesoamerica and the Caribbean, the relative importance of thermodynamic and dynamic controls in driving this response is debated. An isotope-enabled climate model shows that cool Atlantic SSTs and stronger easterlies drive a strong inter-basin sea surface temperature gradient and a southward shift in moisture convergence, causing drying in this region.

Plain Language Summary We use geochemical markers of past rainfall in a rock from a cave (speleothem) to show that warming in Atlantic sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) increases the amount of precipitation in Northeast Mexico. These finding are surprising, since previous rainfall reconstructions using tree rings have suggested a warmer Atlantic decreases precipitation in the region. We used a climate model to show that warming in the Atlantic increases precipitation during the summer but decreases precipitation during the winter. Although winter precipitation only accounts for 8% of annual rainfall in this region, tree rings are more reflective of the winter precipitation response. This is the first speleothem record from NE Mexico over this time‐period and suggests that projections of future rainfall should emphasize relative changes in Atlantic SST variability because it has a major impact on annual precipitation.

Northern Mexico is projected to become more arid in the future, however the magnitude, timing and spatial extent of precipitation change is presently poorly constrained. To address this, we have developed a multi-proxy (δ ¹⁸ O, δ ¹³ C, Mg/Ca) U-Th dated speleothem record of past rainfall variability spanning 4.6 to 58.5 ka from Tamaulipas, Mexico. Our results demonstrate a dominant thermodynamic control on hydroclimate via changes in Atlantic SSTs. Our record robustly demonstrates this response during major paleoclimate events including the Last Glacial Maximum, the Younger Dryas and Heinrich Stadials 1, 3, 4, and 5. While previous work has suggested the magnitude of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet as the predominant driver of regional rainfall, we utilize a state-of-the-art climate model to isolate cool Atlantic SSTs as the dominant mechanism of drying. We also demonstrate this response is consistent across large parts of Mesoamerica, suggesting drying in the future may be more spatially homogenous than currently predicted.