Kaisu Mustonen's scientific contributions

A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-021-09657-9

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.

Proactive and coordinated action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will be essential for achieving the healthy, resilient, safe, sustainably harvested and biodiverse ocean that the UN Decade of Ocean Science and sustainable development goals (SDGs) seek. Ocean-based mitigation actions could contribute 12% of the emissions reductions required by 2030 to keep warming to less than 1.5 ºC but, because substantial warming is already locked in, extensive adaptation action is also needed. Here, as part of the Future Seas project, we use a “foresighting/hindcasting” technique to describe two scenarios for 2030 in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation for ocean systems. The “business-as-usual” future is expected if current trends continue, while an alternative future could be realised if society were to effectively use available data and knowledge to push as far as possible towards achieving the UN SDGs. We identify three drivers that differentiate between these alternative futures: (i) appetite for climate action, (ii) handling extreme events, and (iii) climate interventions. Actions that could navigate towards the optimistic, sustainable and technically achievable future include: (i) proactive creation and enhancement of economic incentives for mitigation and adaptation; (ii) supporting the proliferation of local initiatives to spur a global transformation; (iii) enhancing proactive coastal adaptation management; (iv) investing in research to support adaptation to emerging risks; (v) deploying marine-based renewable energy; (vi) deploying marine-based negative emissions technologies; (vii) developing and assessing solar radiation management approaches; and (viii) deploying appropriate solar radiation management approaches to help safeguard critical ecosystems.

Coastal Indigenous and Traditional communities are starting to see changes to their lives from climate change, whether this is from species range changes or displacement from land changes. For many of these communities, the ability to adequately adapt to these changes is limited by the governance structures they are required to live within, which differ from their customary practices and culture. In November 2019, a group of Indigenous and Traditional Peoples, attended the Future Seas 2030 workshop and discussed the consequences of climate change, the biggest barriers for their communities, and barriers for using traditional knowledge in order to contribute towards a more sustainable future that in the end will benefit all of earth’s people. The aim of this workshop was to highlight and give a voice to the various backgrounds and real-life situations impacting on some of the world’s Indigenous and Traditional communities whose connection with the oceans and coasts have been disrupted. This paper presents these issues of oppression, colonisation, language and agency, making it difficult for these groups to contribute to the current management of oceans and coasts, and asks scientists and practitioners in this space to be allies and enable the needed shift to earth’s guardians taking a leading role in nurturing her for our future.

This paper reviews oral histories and established scientific materials regarding wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus spp.) in the Southern Sakha-Yakutia, in the Neriungri district and surrounding highlands, river valleys and taiga forest ecosystems. Wild reindeer is seen as an ecological and cultural keystone species through which environmental and social changes can be understood and interpreted. Oral histories of Evenki regarding wild reindeer have been documented in the community of Iyengra between 2005 and 2020. During this 15-year-co-researchership the Southern Sakha-Yakutian area has undergone rapid industrial development affecting the forest and aquatic ecosystems. The wild reindeer lost habitats and dwindles in numbers. We demonstrate that the loss of the wild reindeer is not only a loss of biodiversity, but also of cultural and linguistic diversity as well as food security. Our interpretative and analytical frame is that of emplacement. Socio-ecological systems have the potential and capacity to reconnect and re-establish themselves in post-extractive landscapes, if three main conditions are met. These conditions for successful emplacement include (1) surviving natural core areas, (2) links to cultural landscape knowledge and (3) an agency to renew endemic links.

This paper documents changes in three villages of the Ponoy River region, Murmansk, Russia between 2006 and 2020. Two keystone species—the Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and northern pike (Esox lucius) as well as an introduced species, the pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), were studied to determine changes to fish and fisheries. Oral histories, community-based observations and literature data are used to establish key messages on river health from the 1800s to 2020, including temperature data from 1864 to present. Climate change becomes increasingly evident and impacts the Ponoy River system from 1980s onwards with system-relevant changes becoming more pronounced in late 2010s. This coincides with proliferation of pink salmon from 2006 onwards. The species was introduced from the Russian Far East in the 1930s. Very few long-term community-based observation processes have taken place in the Russian North and this paper corrects this to certain extent. Ponoy River and region are important as the last major roadless wilderness area of the European North. Societal and climate changes are rapidly impacting the river and its catchment area as well as the available biological resources and consequently the local culture. This study shows the value of local communities to determine base lines and highlight ongoing changes when establishing climate change impacts and impacts of an alien species.

The purpose of this report is to review the stakeholder needs and community-based observations for the EU project “Kepler” . It will focus on the remote sensing needs of the local and Indigenous communities of NW Russia, Sweden, Finland and Norway. The approach includes a discussion of cryospheric hazards and traditional weather observation and prediction materials from the Sámi communities. It has been produced to capture the results of the WP 1 of the Kepler project.