John Conlisk's research while affiliated with University of California, Riverside and other places

Publications (46)

Article
Aim The shape of a species' spatial abundance distribution may change with spatial scale. We predict that the shape will typically change from strictly downward-sloping (falling) to humped (rising then falling) as the spatial scale increases. The prediction, motivated in part by central limit reasoning, is intended for common or abundant species ov...
Article
In supporting his thesis that "market behavior is morality embodied", Professor Zak describes empirical studies on trust and oxytocin, with emphasis on his own work. I will discuss this work, suggesting that some conclusions are too enthusiastic.
Article
A simple colonization rule yields Hubbell's local abundance distribution with less math, more intuition, and weaker assumptions.
Article
Full-text available
Aim Many ecological surveys record only the presence or absence of species in the cells of a rectangular grid. Ecologists have investigated methods for using these data to predict the total abundance of a species from the number of grid cells in which the species is present. Our aim is to improve such predictions by taking account of the spatial pa...
Article
Full-text available
An important problem is to infer the abundance of a species in an area from its presence or absence in the cells of a uniform grid. If the abundance is assumed to be distributed over cells according to a negative binomial model, a value of the clustering parameter k is needed to infer the abundance. It is shown that, despite a proposal in the liter...
Article
Full-text available
We analyze a new class of models of spatial distribution, developing mathematical properties and performing empirical tests. The models are based on a simple colonization rule operating on a rectangular grid. Two special cases within the class are traditional random placement and negative binomial models. Over three large data sets, these two cases...
Article
When decision-making is costly, distributions of competence, endogenous rationality, may arise across buyers and sellers in a market. An adaptive game is used to make the point.
Article
The model concerns a searcher making multiple searches from the same distribution of payoffs. The searcher does not know the distribution, does not attempt to infer it from cumulating information, and does not attempt to compute an optimal stopping rule. Instead the searcher follows thoroughly elementary adaptive rules. Nonetheless, the searcher co...
Article
A dynamic preference model suggests why people may develop specialized tastes as they age, why initially similar people may develop different specializations, and why socially related people, even if initially dissimilar, may develop the same specializations.
Article
A simple framework is presented in which, each period, each of N individuals chooses among K alternatives. Individual actions are interrelated through a social network which arrays the strength of influence of each person on each other person. Emphasis is on the role of the network. The framework accommodates a variety of particular contexts, sugge...
Article
An evolutionary game model shows how an equilibrium distribution of competence may evolve when members of a population prey on one another, but when predatory competence is costly to acquire. Under one interpretation, the competence distribution is an endogenously determined distribution of bounded rationality. An example shows how "tricksters" and...
Article
In the model, each person in a large population chooses between two options, such as adhering to or not adhering to a social norm. People observe each others’ choices at random and adjust their adherence probabilities in imitative directions. It is known from earlier work that, under strong restrictions on the imitation, the distribution of adheren...
Article
In the model, each person in a large population has a probability of adhering to some behavior, such as a social norm. At random, people observe each other and adjust their adherence probabilities in an imitative direction. In a main case of the model, there are high and low stable equilibria; the distribution of adherence probabilities evolves upw...
Article
In a model of a competitive market, each firm in each period faces a planning problem caused by random changes in circumstances. Due to bounded rationality, a firm is unable to compute, costlessly and exactly, its optimal output. Instead the firm approximates optimal output through a decision-making process called a ‘deliberation technology’. This...
Article
Crawford has presented a striking example in which plausible adaptive rules fail to locate s straightforward equilibrium. The puzzle is to find other adaptive rules which, like Crawford's are plausible but which, unlike Crawford's, do locate the equilibrium. This paper adds two more to the small number of solutions already available.
Article
When agents repeatedly face the same problem, when there is a unique equilibrium, and when other circumstances are favorable, it is commonly supposed that adaptive behavior will lead the agents to the equilibrium. Crawford has presented a striking counterexample in the context of endlessly repeated matrix games. In his model, plausible adaptation l...
Article
A tiny utility of gambling is appended to an expected utility model for a risk-averse individual. It is shown that the model can explain small payoff gambles, large prize lotteries, and patterns of risk-seeking in the experimental evidence that are puzzling from the viewpoint of standard theory. At the same time, the model maintains expected utilit...
Chapter
Suppose an economy permanently raises its saving rate. In the neoclassical growth model of the late 1950s, the economy attains an attractive new steady-state with higher per capita output and, provided the new saving rate does not exceed Phelps’s golden rule rate, higher per capita consumption. The early steady-state papers tempted readers to look...
Article
In a Markov chain model of a social process, interest often centers on the distribution of the population by state. One question, the stability question, is whether this distribution converges to an equilibrium value. For an ordinary Markov chain (a chain with constant transition probabilities), complete answers are available. For an interactive Ma...
Article
The transition matrix of a discrete Markov chain is called monotone if each row stochastically dominates the row above it. Monotonicity is an ideal assumption to impose on a Markov chain model of mobility. Monotonicity is behaviorally weak yet mathematically strong. It is behaviorally weak in the sense that it is theoretically plausible and is empi...
Article
A simple aggregate growth model is presented in which technology is described by a probability distribution from which new plants are drawn. Especially good draws are viewed as technological innovations that shift the mean of the following period's plant distribution function. The resulting technical change is endogenous, random, and cumulative. In...
Article
A sufficient condition is given for one mobility matrix to display more mobility than another in the sense of Kanbur and Stiglitz.
Article
This paper evaluates a pilot program run by a company called OPOWER, previously known as Positive Energy, to mail home energy reports to residential utility consumers. The reports compare a household’s energy use to that of its neighbors and provide energy conservation tips. Using data from randomized natural field experiment at 80,000 treatment an...
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"Simple bounds are presented for the dominant eigenvalue of the generalized Leslie matrix of a multiregional demographic growth model." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Article
Data are presented from questionnaires about preferences over hypothetical lotteries. The answers either support or reject the betweenness axiom, depending on which questions are picked.
Article
In most developing countries, income inequality tends to worsen during initial stages of growth, especially in urban areas. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) provides a sharp contrast where income inequality among urban households is lower than that among rural households. In terms of inclusive growth, the existence of income mobility over a lon...
Article
A seemingly small change in a demand assumption reverses several standard conclusions about temporal price discrimination.
Article
In the model of this paper a monopoly seller of a durable good holds periodic sales as a means of price discrimination. A new cohort of consumers enters the market in each period, interested in purchasing the good either immediately or after a delay. Within each cohort, consumers vary in their tastes for the good. Under broad conditions, the seller...
Article
Stimulated by the work of Novshek (1980), this paper concerns the accuracy of the competitive approximation to a Cournot market with free entry. Novshek took a static equilibrium approach to the problem. This paper takes a dynamic stochastic approach, one which allows persistent disequilibrium. It is argued that the alternative approach yields simi...
Article
The effects of a lag-retiming on stability and speed of adjustment have been analyzed for systems of linear difference equations with constant non-negative coefficients. This note extends the results for finite lags to infinite lags.
Article
The subject is retiming of lags in a system of linear difference equations. The issues are (i) the effect of lag retiming on stability and (ii) the effect of lag retiming on speed of adjustment. Regarding (i), a theorem due to Bear [1] is sharpened; and new conditions for stability to survive under a retiming of lags are obtained. Regarding (ii), t...
Article
A dynamic model is constructed with two types of agents, optimizers and imitators. The mix between the two types evolves according to the relative average performances of the two groups. The main conclusion is that imitators may have as high a long-run ‘fitness’ as optimizers. The model is used to sort issues concerning the conventional hypothesis...
Article
In Markov chain studies of occupational mobility, an interesting empirical pattern has been reported. Certain transrtion matrix eigenvectors provide surprisingly accurate proxies for occupational status. Through a number of formal illustra tions, this paper suggests why the pattern might in theory be expected, in the occupational mobility context a...
Article
I. Introduction, 1.—II. Context of the model, 3.—III. Consumer specifications and market equilibrium in the case of fixed breakdown probabilities, 5.—IV. Breakdown probabilities set by profit considerations, 11.—V. Conclusion, 19.—Appendix, 20.
Article
Two eigenvalue measures of immobility are proposed for social processes described by a Markov chain. One is the second largest eigenvalue modulus of the chain's transition matrix. The other is the second largest eigenvalue modulus of a closely related transition matrix. The two eigenvalue measures are compared to each other and to correlation and r...
Article
An intergenerational model of the income distribution, including educational effects, is presented. It is used to analyze issues in the debate over equity effects of subsidies for higher education. In particular, the analysis supports Pechman's view that conventional net benefit calculations are poor indicators of such equity effects.
Article
Through a specific model, this paper explores a promising general framework for unified modelling of the size distribution of income and wealth. The specific model includes physical and human capital accumulation, factoral and size distribution effects, redistributive taxation, economic growth, and other distribution-related mechanisms. The main co...
Article
Markov chains, and various generalizations of them, almost universally assume that the transition probabilities applying to a single individual are independent of the behavior of other individuals in the population. That is, there is no interaction among individuals. This is an extremely limiting assumption in modelling social processes. This paper...

Citations

... Bounded rationality is critical for understanding consumer behavior in complex financial markets, particularly in the context of life insurance. This theory suggests that subjective financial literacy significantly influences purchasing decisions, as individuals often rely on their perceived financial knowledge rather than objective understanding [48,49]. ...
... How important are the general equilibrium implications of public investment for char-1 This result was supported by subsequent work in Wisconsin (Hansen 1970) and Florida (Windham 1970). 2 Conlisk (1977) develops a simple intergenerational model to show that net benefits measured here are not a good indicator of the intergenerational equity implications. However, the focus of this paper is on the distribution of benefits across households at a given point in time. ...
... Nekola & Brown 2007;Warren et al. 2011) suggests that the overall shape of natural SADs results from statistical phenomena alone. There are several purely statistical models that rely on various assumptions, other than biological mechanisms (McGill 2003a(McGill , 2010Šizling et al. 2009;White, Thibault & Xiao 2012;Conlisk et al. 2012). Perhaps the most popular is the log-normal SAD, invoking to random multiplicative process acting on abundances (Harte 2003;McGill 2003b;Nee & Stone 2003). ...
... Low upward mobility, however, does not necessarily indicate a lower opportunity to attain a high education level [15]; upward mobility may be low in countries where a considerable share of parents has already attained tertiary education [16][17][18][19]. To evaluate how a family's educational level matters for a given individual in achieving the highest educational title, 26 countries (Australia, Austria, Canada, Chile, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Korea, Norway, New Zealand, Holland, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, United States, Sweden, and Turkey) were investigated considering aggregate (country-level) data for individuals [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44] years old from OECD [14]. Based on the mainstream literature [20], original measures separately assessing 'mobility' and 'opportunities' were introduced here. ...
... In its non-directional incarnation, mobility can be viewed as the antithesis of a situation in which socioeconomic achievement in a given period accurately predicts socioeconomic achievement in the next (Atkinson 1981, Bartholomew 1982, Conlisk 1974, Dardanoni 1993, Hart 1976, Sommers and Conlisk 1979, Shorrocks 1978or Wodon and Yitzhaki 2004. Examples of mobility measures that are based on the transition matrix include the second largest eigenvalue modulus or speed of escape from initial conditions (Sommers and Conlisk 1979), the Shorrocks index based on the trace (Shorrocks 1978), or the Bartholomew index (Bartholomew 1982). ...
... In this paper we provide rigorous results related to a special Markovian model of opinion dynamics. The idea of this model was inspired by papers [1][2][3]. Lorenz [2] proposed alternative dynamical systems that mimic WD and HK, two famous agent-based models of opinion dynamics [4][5][6][7]. The approach of [2] was not based on individual agent opinions but rather on iterations of some nonlinear mapping of probability distributions on a finite opinion set. ...
... In the context of evolutionary games, a range of dynamics have been studied, including, best response dynamics [1,35,36], replicator dynamics [1,37], imitation dynamics [1,38], adaptive dynamics [1,39] and so on. While the common assumption is that interactions occur in static environment, in reality, individual's behavior can directly or indirectly influence the state of the environment, and the changing environment in turn influences decisions. ...
... When it is not possible to achieve, then the working capacity of the complex is maintained by introducing a higher number of machines (reserves), reducing the working regime of the machines, organizing technical maintenance and repair activities, or through the combination of these measures. It is necessary to take into account that these measures translate into an increase in the operating cost, which in turn, depends on the reliability of the complex, mainly on the number and complexity of failures and on the maintainability that is characterized by the cost of fault elimination (Amú, 2010;Bolch et al., 2006;Fernández & Delgado, 1989;Fernández & Álvarez, 1988;Conlisk, 1976). ...
... Monotone Markov chains are introduced by Daley in [17] and further investigated by Keilson and Kester in [18]. Several authors point out the importance of monotone Markov models in practice for diverse contexts: for example, monotone Markov models for intergenerational occupational mobility, where the states are occupational categories that have a natural ranking from worst to best, and the transition probability p ij expresses the probability that a parent in state i will have a child in state j [19]. As well as monotone Markov models where the states are income classes arranged in an increasing order can be useful in modeling intergenerational income mobility [20]. ...
... Also, other works in sociology related to influence are worth mentioning, e.g., the eigenvector-like notions of centrality and prestige [33,10,11], and models of social influence and persuasion by French [22] and Harary [29] (see also [39]). A sociological model of interactions on networks is also presented by Conlisk [13] (see also [14,15,36]), who introduces interactive Markov chains, in which every entry in a state vector at each time represents the fraction of the population with some attribute. The matrix depends on the current state vector, i.e., the current social structure is taken into account to model how sociological dynamics evolve. ...