H.J. Geist's research while affiliated with Stanford University and other places

This 222-page book is part of ''Global Change - The IGBP Series'', and this volume discusses land-use and land cover change, with respect to the effects on local processes and global impacts. This book presents recent estimates of the rates in changes of major land classes such as forests, cropland and pasture. The book contains 8 individually-authored chapters, each of which is internally structured into more specific sections and subsections within the chapter scope. The first chapter provides an introduction to local processes with global impacts. Chapter 2 discusses global land cover change in terms of recent progress and remaining challenges, and chapter 3 concentrates on the causes and trajectories of land use/cover change. Remaining chapter topics include: multiple impacts of land use/cover change; modeling land use and land cover change; searching for the future of land, and scenarios from the local to the global scale; and linking land change science and policy, and current lessons and future integration. The final chapter provides a conclusion written by the Scientific Steering Committee of the Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC) project. All of the references used are included together after the final chapter, and this reference list is followed by an index. The text is written in English, and the book is illustrated with 44 figures, 19 of which are in color. This book will appeal to environmental scientists, ecologists, conservationists, and anyone with an interest in or dealing with the land-related issues of global environmental change.

Domestic and international policy makers often address the issue of tropical deforestation with the assumption that a burgeoning population of poor subsistence farmers are the main culprits, slashing and burning their way through the forests. Environmentalists often point the finger at large multinational corporate interests, the driving forces behind cattle ranches, large-scale agriculture, timber extraction, mining, and hydropower dams. However, according to this region-by-region analysis, no "one-size-fits-all" approach is adequate to explain this complex phenomenon.

Common understanding of the causes of land-use and land-cover change is dominated by simplifications which, in turn, underlie many environment-development policies. This article tracks some of the major myths on driving forces of land-cover change and proposes alternative pathways of change that are better supported by case study evidence. Cases reviewed support the conclusion that neither population nor poverty alone constitute the sole and major underlying causes of land-cover change worldwide. Rather, peoples’ responses to economic opportunities, as mediated by institutional factors, drive land-cover changes. Opportunities and constraints for new land uses are created by local as well as national markets and policies. Global forces become the main determinants of land-use change, as they amplify or attenuate local factors.

Common understanding of the causes of land-use and land-cover change is dominated by simplifications which, in turn, underlie many environment-development policies. This article tracks some of the major myths on driving forces of land-cover change and proposes alternative pathways of change that are better supported by case study evidence. Cases reviewed support the conclusion that neither population nor poverty alone constitute the sole and major underlying causes of land-cover change worldwide. Rather, peoples' responses to economic opportunities, as mediated by institutional factors, drive land-cover changes. Opportunities and

Land-use and land-cover change research needs to pay more attention to processes of land-cover modification, and es-pecially to agricultural land intensification. The objective of this paper is to review the different modelling approaches that have been used in land-use/land-cover change research from the perspective of their utility for the study and prediction of changes in land-use intensification. After clarifying the main concepts used, the different modelling approaches that have been used to study land-use change are examined, case study evidence on processes and drivers of land-use intensification are discussed, and a conclusion is provided on the present ability to predict changes in land-use intensity. The analysis sug-gests there are differences in the capability of different modelling approaches to assess changing levels of intensification: dynamic, process-based simulation models appear to be better suited to predict changes in land-use intensity than empirical, stochastic or static optimisation models. However, some stochastic and optimisation methods may be useful in describing the decision-making processes that drive land management. Case study evidence highlight the uncertainties and surprises inherent in the processes of land-use intensification. This can both inform model development and reveal a wider range of possible futures than is evident from modelling alone. Case studies also highlight the importance of decision-making by land managers when facing a range of response options. Thus, the ability to model decision-making processes is probably more important in land-use intensification studies then the broad category of model used. For this reason, landscape change models operating at an aggregated level have not been used to predict intensification. In the future, an integrated approach to modelling — that is multidisciplinary and cross-sectoral combining elements of different modelling techniques — will probably best serve the objective of improving understanding of land-use change processes including intensification. This is because intensification is a function of the management of physical resources, within the context of the prevailing social and economic drivers. Some of the factors that should be considered when developing future land-use change models are: the geographic and socio-economic context of a particular study, the spatial scale and its influence on the modelling approach, temporal issues such as dynamic versus equilibrium models, thresholds and surprises associated with rapid changes, and system feedbacks. In industrialised regions, predicting land-use intensification requires a better handling of the links between the agriculture and forestry sectors to the energy sector, of technological innovation, and of the impact of agri-environment policies. For developing countries, better representation of urbanisation and its various impacts on land-use changes at rural-urban interfaces, of transport infras-tructure and market change will be required. Given the impossibility of specific predictions of these driving forces, most of the modelling work will be aimed at scenario analysis. © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.