Gabriela F. Nane's research while affiliated with Delft University of Technology and other places

Publications (18)

Article
Full-text available
Background The Girinka program in Rwanda has contributed to an increase in milk production, as well as to reduced malnutrition and increased incomes. But dairy products can be hazardous to health, potentially transmitting diseases such as bovine brucellosis, tuberculosis, and cause diarrhea. We analyzed the burden of foodborne disease due to consum...
Article
Full-text available
Foodborne disease is a significant global health problem, with low- and middle-income countries disproportionately affected. Given that most fresh animal and vegetable foods in LMICs are bought in informal food systems, much the burden of foodborne disease in LMIC is also linked to informal markets. Developing estimates of the national burden of fo...
Article
Full-text available
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) forecasts from over 100 models are readily available. However, little published information exists regarding the performance of their uncertainty estimates (i.e. probabilistic performance). To evaluate their probabilistic performance, we employ the classical model (CM), an established method typically used to val...
Article
Full-text available
Background According to the World Health Organization, 600 million cases of foodborne disease occurred in 2010. To inform risk management strategies aimed at reducing this burden, attribution to specific foods is necessary. Objective We present attribution estimates for foodborne pathogens ( Campylobacter spp., enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ET...
Article
An extension of the D-vine based forward regression procedure to a R-vine forward regression is proposed. In this extension any R-vine structure can be taken into account. Moreover, a new heuristic is proposed to determine which R-vine structure is the most appropriate to model the conditional distribution of the response variable given the covaria...
Article
Full-text available
Expert elicitation is deployed when data are absent or uninformative and critical decisions must be made. In designing an expert elicitation, most practitioners seek to achieve best practice while balancing practical constraints. The choices made influence the required time and effort investment, the quality of the elicited data, experts’ engagemen...
Chapter
Prof. Roger Cooke is the Chauncey Starr Senior Fellow at Resources for Future in Washington and an emeritus professor at the Technical University of Delft in The Netherlands. This chapter presents an interview with Roger Cooke in which he reflects on the Classical Model and the processes of SEJ in conversation with Gabriela F.(Tina) Nane and Anca M...
Chapter
The Classical Model (CM) or Cooke’s method for performing Structured Expert Judgement (SEJ) is the best-known method that promotes expert performance evaluation when aggregating experts’ assessments of uncertain quantities. Assessing experts’ performance in quantifying uncertainty involves two scores in CM, the calibration score (or statistical acc...
Chapter
This chapter sets the background for when, and discusses the contexts in which, eliciting expert judgements is paramount. The way judgements are elicited and aggregated plays an essential part in distinguishing structured/formal elicitation protocols from informal ones. We emphasise the importance of properly reporting the steps and decision taken...
Chapter
A recent ample Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) study quantified the source attribution of 33 distinct pathogens in the United States. The source attribution for five transmission pathways: food, water, animal contact, person-to-person, and environment has been considered. This chapter will detail how SEJ has been applied to answer questions of int...
Chapter
The aim of this chapter is to show how a structured approach to elicit expert judgement (SEJ) can guide the practice of early internationalization. We applied SEJ to forecast some critical issues upon which an innovative start-up wished to base their decision of whether to expand their initial operations in Poland and Czech Republic to Brazil. Sixt...
Article
Full-text available
With the advent of large-scale application of hydrogen, transportation becomes crucial. Reusing the existing natural gas transmission system could serve as catalyst for the future hydrogen economy. However, a risk analysis of hydrogen transmission in existing pipelines is essential for the deployment of the new energy carrier. This paper focuses on...
Article
Full-text available
Illnesses transmitted by food and water cause a major disease burden in the United States despite advancements in food safety, water treatment, and sanitation. We report estimates from a structured expert judgment study using 48 experts who applied Cooke’s classical model of the proportion of disease attributable to 5 major transmission pathways (f...
Book
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he develo...
Article
Full-text available
Like other cities in the Kathmandu Valley, Bhaktapur faces rapid urbanisation and population growth. Rivers are negatively impacted by uncontrolled settlements in flood-prone areas, lowering permeability, decreasing channels widths, and waste blockage. All these issues, along with more extreme rain events during the monsoon due to climate change, h...
Article
The selection of vine structure to represent dependencies in a data set with a regular vine copula model is still an open question. Up to date, the most popular heuristic to choose the vine structure is to construct consecutive trees by capturing largest correlations in lower trees. However, this might not lead to the optimal vine structure. A new...

Citations

... While the Girinka program has been primarily associated with positive impacts, such as increased agricultural production and household income (Argent et al. 2014;Nilsson et al. 2019), it has been observed that the program can impose an energy cost burden on rural households (Khundi-Mkomba et al. 2023). Limited access to veterinary services and adequate water supply imposes substantial financial burdens on program beneficiaries, potentially undermining the economic viability of the intervention for beneficiary households (Sapp et al. 2023). While biogas technology can potentially improve rural livelihoods and reduce energy costs for low-income Rwandan households, its adoption has been remarkably low due to prohibitive capital set-up costs and high dis-adoption rates (Lwiza et al. 2017;Mukeshimana et al. 2021). ...
... Food hazards disproportionally affect young children, the elderly, and pregnant and lactating women (World Health Organization, 2015). Children under five years old not only carry 40% of the FBD burden in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), but also endure the most severe long-term consequences from these diseases (Havelaar et al., 2015(Havelaar et al., , 2022. ...
... Unlike weather forecasts, however, the trajectory of an epidemic can affect the future dynamics as people respond to risk [1]. A plethora of dynamical forecast models was created during the COVID-19 pandemic, but their ability to effectively describe future trajectories of cases and hospitalizations was mixed, with models producing both under-and overestimates [2]. A major challenge for these models in evaluating future trends was forecasting the behavior of individuals, which was largely incorporated exogenously through changes in public health guidance. ...
... urban-food-markets-africa-incentivizing-food-safety-using-pullpush-approach AFRD subregion (high child and high adult mortality) and Ethiopia to the AFRE subregion (high child and very high adult mortality). The project partners selected the foods and hazards while designing the study based on the results from Havelaar et al. (2015) and specific concerns in the target countries [for details, see Sapp et al. (2022)]. ...
... Similar to the viewpoints of Emami-Naeini et al. [67], the general public expresses greater apprehension about certain risks that specialists perceive as relatively unimportant. Nevertheless, even individuals with expertise might exhibit bias when assessing risks [68]. The insights of the general population should be esteemed and valued [69]. ...
... When physical sciences and/or statistics are not sufficient to support models and/or decisions, expert judgment is a recognized approach to quantify the uncertainties around specific issues [1][2][3][4][5]. Among different expert judgment methods, structured expert elicitation employs a formalized, documented procedure for obtaining probabilistic belief statements from a group of experts about unknown quantities or parameters [6][7][8][9][10]. The final goal of this approach is to obtain the group's synthesized uncertainty distribution (representing a new ''virtual expert'', experts are normally asked to fill questionnaires in which they have to express their own judgments and related uncertainties by providing several percentiles (usually the 5th, 50th and 95th ones) that define a distribution of the unknown variable or parameter. ...
... Note that CM relies on an asymptotic approximation which for a small number of observations is not very good (Cooke, 2014). Simulations for ten calibration variables are provided in (Hanea and Nane, 2021). It is deemed capable of detecting only large differences in experts' performances. ...
... Both assumptions reflect the best current data, and the general problem that data-driven attribution is currently not possible given data gaps and the inability to combine data from different study types (e.g., outbreaks, case-control studies, and microbial typing) in one consistent theoretical framework. These problems occur in high-income countries and low-and middle-income countries alike and expert judgment studies are frequently applied at international and national levels to provide best estimates of the (uncertainty in) foodborne disease attribution (Butler et al., 2015;Beshearse et al., 2021). ...
... However, these models showcased moderate discriminative ability, making them premature for clinical practice. When data-driven approaches are not sufficiently reliable, domain experts should be consulted [25,26]. The synthesis of clinicians' treatment preferences for various patient cases aids in understanding which specific patients would benefit from which treatments [27]. ...
... They also observed that a mixture of topsoil and sand produces a larger crater than a topsoil fill. Froeling et al. [97] modeled jet fires and found that while hydrogen releases have a lower lethality, as pipeline diameter decreases, the individual risk is higher in the vicinity due to an increased ignition probability. Wang et al. [98] compared jet flame length correlations and thermal radiation models to find a framework best suited for hydrogen jet fires for a transmission pipeline, and found that a combination of well-known correlations and models produced reasonably accurate results for flame lengths and radiation heat flux. ...