April 2024
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Poa bactriana Roshev, a perennial monocot, serves as a crucial forage plant for both livestock and wildlife in Central Asia and the Himalayas. Despite its ecological importance, our understanding of its distribution and ecological niche remains limited, raising concerns about its vulnerability to climate change and anthropogenic impacts. In this study, we employed Maxent, a Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) method, to predict the present and future distribution of P. bactriana using occurrence data and environmental variables. Our analysis identified altitude, aridity index, and various bioclimatic and topographic variables as primary determinants influencing the distribution of P. bactriana. Presently, the species is predominantly concentrated in mountainous regions spanning Central Asia, Iran, Afghanistan, and select areas of Mongolia, Turkey, Russia, and China. However, projections under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for 2050 reveal a significant decline in suitable habitat and habitat quality for P. bactriana. Elevations ranging from 1500 to 4000 meters emerged as optimal habitats, underscoring the critical importance of high-altitude landscapes in supporting this species. Our study provides novel insights into the ecology and biogeography of P. bactriana, emphasizing the urgent need for conservation and management strategies to safeguard its future amidst changing environmental conditions.