David Lindner's research while affiliated with ETH Zurich and other places

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Publications (3)


Detecting Spiky Corruption in Markov Decision Processes
  • Preprint

June 2019

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10 Reads

Jason Mancuso

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Tomasz Kisielewski

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David Lindner

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Current reinforcement learning methods fail if the reward function is imperfect, i.e. if the agent observes reward different from what it actually receives. We study this problem within the formalism of Corrupt Reward Markov Decision Processes (CRMDPs). We show that if the reward corruption in a CRMDP is sufficiently "spiky", the environment is solvable. We fully characterize the regret bound of a Spiky CRMDP, and introduce an algorithm that is able to detect its corrupt states. We show that this algorithm can be used to learn the optimal policy with any common reinforcement learning algorithm. Finally, we investigate our algorithm in a pair of simple gridworld environments, finding that our algorithm can detect the corrupt states and learn the optimal policy despite the corruption.

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Sensing Social Media Signals for Cryptocurrency News

May 2019

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86 Reads

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19 Citations

Johannes Beck

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Roberta Huang

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David Lindner

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[...]

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The ability to track and monitor relevant and important news in real-time is of crucial interest in multiple industrial sectors. In this work, we focus on cryptocurrency news, which recently became of emerging interest to the general and financial audience. In order to track popular news in real-time, we (i) match news from the web with tweets from social media, (ii) track their intraday tweet activity and (iii) explore different machine learning models for predicting the number of article mentions on Twitter after its publication. We compare several machine learning models, such as linear extrapolation, linear and random forest autoregressive models, and a sequence-to-sequence neural network.


Sensing Social Media Signals for Cryptocurrency News

March 2019

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127 Reads

The ability to track and monitor relevant and important news in real-time is of crucial interest in multiple industrial sectors. In this work, we focus on the set of cryptocurrency news, which recently became of emerging interest to the general and financial audience. In order to track relevant news in real-time, we (i) match news from the web with tweets from social media, (ii) track their intraday tweet activity and (iii) explore different machine learning models for predicting the number of the article mentions on Twitter within the first 24 hours after its publication. We compare several machine learning models, such as linear extrapolation, linear and random forest autoregressive models, and a sequence-to-sequence neural network. We find that the random forest autoregressive model behaves comparably to more complex models in the majority of tasks.

Citations (1)


... They find that tweet volume rather than tweet sentiment is useful for predicting Bitcoin and Ethereum price direction. Beck et al. (2019) use machine learning models to predict cryptocurrency tweets from published news articles. Prediction accuracy is highest the closer the prediction start time is to the target time. ...

Reference:

Time and frequency dynamics between NFT coins and economic uncertainty
Sensing Social Media Signals for Cryptocurrency News
  • Citing Conference Paper
  • May 2019