Atif R. Mian's research while affiliated with Princeton University and other places

... To complement the analysis of this appendix, we also employ data from newly digitized CBP database extracted from Eckert et al. (2022). The CBP data reports employment counts at the county and aggregated industry level. ...

... However, if interest rates are lower than GDP growth rates (r -g < 0), public debt dynamics are inherently stable, as the public-debt-to-GDP ratio will show a downward trend as long as there is not too large a primary fiscal deficit. Mian et al. (2022) argue that whether a modest permanent increase in the fiscal deficit can be sustained also depends on how strongly r-g reacts to changes in public debt. (Reis, 2021) proposes an analysis according to which there is still a well-defined government budget constraint with r<g if the economy is dynamically inefficient. ...

... 5 In models in which financial markets are incomplete and risk is uninsurable, a permanent increase in government debt can increase the supply of financial assets in the economy and raise the long-run level of the short-term real interest rate (hereafter referred to as r*), crowding out private capital. 6 In addition, Krishnamurthy and Vissing-Jorgensen (2012) have documented that there are safety and liquidity benefits associated with government securities, and in models such as Mian et al. (2022) a permanent increase in government debt can increase r* by reducing the convenience value associated with these benefits. Issuance of longer-term government securities can also raise the exposure that investors have to interest-rate risk on the value of longer-term securities in preferred habitat models of the yield curve (e.g., Vila, 2021, Greenwood andStein, 2014). ...

... compensatory rule for selecting the credit product and a lexicographic heuristic for selecting the INTRODUCTION Decision-making when choosing alternatives for financing a major purchase is a complex process which involves several cognitive aspects of consumer behavior. To choose optimally, consumers must evaluate various alternatives for financing and consider factors such as interest rates, loan terms, and credit limits (Ranyard et al., 2018;Liu et al., 2022;Kirchler & Hoelzl, 2018). ...

... At the same time, recent work in the United States shows that increasing indebtedness among average households and in government has taken place alongside the development of a "savings glut" among the rich. This increasing wealth at the top of the distribution (including financial assets that amount to direct claims on government and household debt) has not been accompanied by greater rates of investment that might spur economic growth (Mian et al., 2020). Later work also identifies the development of a savings glut among the rich and dissaving among the rest of the population in the EU and China over the last forty years (Bauluz et al., 2022). ...

... 34 Consistent with a multi-factor extension of our model, exposures to both country and global risk are associated with lower labor shares. 35 We follow Kroen, Liu, Mian, and Sufi (2021) and define superstar firms as the top 5% of firms within each Fama-French industry (in a given country-year). Table 4 formally investigates whether increases in international diversification, measured as the share of domestic firm equity held by foreign investors, leads to a reallocation of input and output shares to riskier firms by estimating regressions of firm shares of industry employment/sales on the interaction of the (log) foreign equity share with firm relative beta as implied by (14). ...

... If, for instance, a bank is bailed out, its creditors-institutional investors-and deposit holders with savings above deposit insurance limits are those who benefit. If central banks or other actors stabilize or boost asset values, those who hold these securities, i.e. the (white) middle classes [Bartscher et al. 2022] and rich households with diversified financial portfolios and large stock ownership [Mian, Straub, and Sufi 2020], are the primary winners. Interventions like QE and loan guarantee programmes also help leveraged debtors, both within professional finance and in the household sector. ...

... New evidence suggests that rising income inequality might be a more important factor in explaining the decline in r* than demographics. Based on micro data, Mian et al. (2021a) weigh the relative importance of demographic shifts versus rising income inequality on saving behavior in the US from 1950 to 2019. These findings challenge the view that the aging of the baby boomers explains the decline in r* and might taper off as baby-boomers retire. ...

... The relationship between political partisanship and inflation expectations (and, more generally, evaluations of the economy) is explored in literature investigating polarization and partisan bias in economic perceptions (both retrospective and prospective) and the implications of such bias (Ladner & Wlezien, 2007;Gerber & Huber, 2010;McGrath, 2017;Gillitzer & Prasad 2018;Bachmann et al., 2021;Gillitzer et al., 2021;Mian et al., Khoshkhou 2023). In the case of this literature, partisan bias is present when perceptions/expectations are polarized in such a way that Democrats and Republicans demonstrate favoritism towards their respective party, i.e., individuals from the president's political party perceive the same economic information more favorably than individuals from the opposing political party. ...

... A popular view in the literature is that credit expansion amplifies aggregate house price increases by feeding speculative and extrapolative demand (e.g., Mian and Sufi, 2022). Specifically, previous work has found a strong link between an expansion in mortgage credit, which is most often extended to riskier borrowers, and subsequent house price increases (e.g., Sufi, 2009, 2011;Di Maggio and Kermani, 2017). ...