A E Evans's research while affiliated with Queen's University Belfast and other places

Methionine synthase catalyzes the conversion of 5-methyltetrahydrofolate to tetrahydrofolate and homocysteine (Hcy) to methionine using vitamin B(12) as a cofactor. Transcobalamin is the main transporter of vitamin B(12) from blood into cells. This study was undertaken to assess the relationship between the transcobalamin P259R (TCN2 776C>G) polymorphism and both serum vitamin B(12) and total Hcy (tHcy) levels. The population comprised 613 men from Northern Ireland, aged 30-49 years, for whom tHcy, serum vitamin B(12) and serum folate concentrations were available. TCN2 776C>G genotypes were determined using a TaqMan 5' nuclease Real-Time PCR assay. Standard statistical tests of association were applied to assess the relationships between the polymorphism and phenotypic variables. The TCN2 776CC homozygous genotype was associated with lower serum vitamin B(12) concentrations compared with the 776CG (P(unadjusted)=0.01; P(adjusted)=0.03) and 776GG genotypes (P(unadjusted)=0.015; P(adjusted)=0.045). Among individuals with vitamin B(12) concentrations in the lower half of the distribution, tHcy concentrations were higher in TCN2 776GG homozygotes than in individuals with the other genotypes (P(unadjusted)=0.015; P(adjusted)=0.06). These data suggest that, relative to transcobalamin with arginine at position 259 (776G), transcobalamin with proline at this position (776C) is either more efficient at vitamin B(12) transport from blood to tissues or has higher affinity for vitamin B(12). Furthermore, vitamin B(12) status influences the relationship between TCN2 776C>G genotype and tHcy concentrations. Thus, the TCN2 776C>G polymorphism may contribute to the risk of pathologies associated with a low B(12), and high tHcy phenotype.

One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an exposure and disease either are restricted to cohorts with full confounder information, or use all cohorts but do not fully adjust for confounding. We propose using a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis model to use information from all available cohorts while still adjusting for all the potential confounders. Our method uses both the fully adjusted and the partially adjusted estimated effects in the cohorts with full confounder information, together with an estimate of their within-cohort correlation. The method is applied to estimate the association between fibrinogen level and coronary heart disease incidence using data from 154 012 participants in 31 cohorts.

Background: Dietary supplementation with B vitamins that lower blood homocysteine concentrations is expected to reduce cardiovascular disease risk, but there has been uncertainty about the optimum regimen to use for this purpose. Objective: The objectives were to ascertain the lowest dose of folic acid associated with the maximum reductionin homocysteine concentrations and to determine the additional relevance of vitamins B-12 and B-6. Design: A meta-analysis of 25 randomized controlled trials involving individual data on 2596 subjects assessed the effect on plasma homocysteine concentrations of different doses of folic acid and of the addition of vitamins B-12 and B-6. Results: The proportional reductions in plasma homocysteine concentrations produced by folic acid were greater at higher homocysteine (P < 0.001) and lower folate (P < 0.001) pretreatment concentrations; they were also greater in women than in men (P < 0.001). After standardization for sex and to pretreatment plasma concentrations of 12 mu mol homocysteine/L and 12 nmol folate/L, daily doses of 0.2,0.4,0.8,2.0, and 5.0 mg folic acid were associated with reductions in homocysteine of 13% (95% CI: 10%, 16%),20% (17%, 22%), 23% (21%, 26%), 23% (20%, 26%), and 25% (22%, 28%), respectively. Vitamin B-12 (x: 0.4 mg/d) produced 7% (95% CI: 4%, 9%) further reduction in homocysteine concentrations, but vitamin B-6 had no significant effect. Conclusions: Daily doses of >= 0.8 mg folic acid are typically required to achieve the maximal reduction in plasma homocysteine concentrations producedby folic acid supplementation. Doses of 0.2 and 0.4 mg are associated with 60% and 90%, respectively, of this maximal effect.

Plasma fibrinogen levels may be associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. To assess the relationships of fibrinogen levels with risk of major vascular and with risk of nonvascular outcomes based on individual participant data. Relevant studies were identified by computer-assisted searches, hand searches of reference lists, and personal communication with relevant investigators. All identified prospective studies were included with information available on baseline fibrinogen levels and details of subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality during at least 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if they recruited participants on the basis of having had a previous history of cardiovascular disease; participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke were excluded. Individual records were provided on each of 154,211 participants in 31 prospective studies. During 1.38 million person-years of follow-up, there were 6944 first nonfatal myocardial infarctions or stroke events and 13,210 deaths. Cause-specific mortality was generally available. Analyses involved proportional hazards modeling with adjustment for confounding by known cardiovascular risk factors and for regression dilution bias. Within each age group considered (40-59, 60-69, and > or =70 years), there was an approximately log-linear association with usual fibrinogen level for the risk of any CHD, any stroke, other vascular (eg, non-CHD, nonstroke) mortality, and nonvascular mortality. There was no evidence of a threshold within the range of usual fibrinogen level studied at any age. The age- and sex- adjusted hazard ratio per 1-g/L increase in usual fibrinogen level for CHD was 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.24-2.60); stroke, 2.06 (95% CI, 1.83-2.33); other vascular mortality, 2.76 (95% CI, 2.28-3.35); and nonvascular mortality, 2.03 (95% CI, 1.90-2.18). The hazard ratios for CHD and stroke were reduced to about 1.8 after further adjustment for measured values of several established vascular risk factors. In a subset of 7011 participants with available C-reactive protein values, the findings for CHD were essentially unchanged following additional adjustment for C-reactive protein. The associations of fibrinogen level with CHD or stroke did not differ substantially according to sex, smoking, blood pressure, blood lipid levels, or several features of study design. In this large individual participant meta-analysis, moderately strong associations were found between usual plasma fibrinogen level and the risks of CHD, stroke, other vascular mortality, and nonvascular mortality in a wide range of circumstances in healthy middle-aged adults. Assessment of any causal relevance of elevated fibrinogen levels to disease requires additional research.

The aim of this study was to describe and compare coronary event case fatality and care pathways in two defined populations with access to different models of pre-hospital care provision. Secondary analysis of MONItoring of Trends and Determinants in CArdiovascular Disease (MONICA) population coronary event registers (1988, 1989, 1990, 1992 and 1993). Case fatality at 28 days following an acute coronary event was 6.5% greater in the Glasgow MONICA Project (GMP) population (46.7%) than in the Belfast MONICA Project (BMP) population (40.2%). Pre-hospital case fatality was 33.9% in the GMP population and 28.3% in the BMP population. These differences could not be fully explained by mobile coronary care unit (MCCU) responses in the BMP area. Initial care was provided in hospital for 28.3% of the BMP events and only 7.7% of the GMP events. Additional data collected by the Belfast and Glasgow MONICA investigators support a large difference between the median delay to main medical care in the BMP events (120 min) and the median delay to ward admission in the GMP area (220 min) at this time. Our findings suggest that the delay between coronary event onset and access to specialist coronary care was the most likely critical difference, irrespective of hospital-based MCCU provision in the BMP area. An established 'culture of early intervention' in Belfast may have been an important factor. As a large proportion of coronary event fatalities continue to occur outside hospital, there is a need to strengthen the evidence base underpinning the provision of appropriate skilled care and treatment at the earliest possible opportunity.

CONTEXT: Plasma fibrinogen levels may be associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationships of fibrinogen levels with risk of major vascular and with risk of nonvascular outcomes based on individual participant data. DATA SOURCES: Relevant studies were identified by computer-assisted searches, hand searches of reference lists, and personal communication with relevant investigators. STUDY SELECTION: All identified prospective studies were included with information available on baseline fibrinogen levels and details of subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality during at least 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if they recruited participants on the basis of having had a previous history of cardiovascular disease; participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke were excluded. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual records were provided on each of 154,211 participants in 31 prospective studies. During 1.38 million person-years of follow-up, there were 6944 first nonfatal myocardial infarctions or stroke events and 13,210 deaths. Cause-specific mortality was generally available. Analyses involved proportional hazards modeling with adjustment for confounding by known cardiovascular risk factors and for regression dilution bias. DATA SYNTHESIS: Within each age group considered (40-59, 60-69, and > or =70 years), there was an approximately log-linear association with usual fibrinogen level for the risk of any CHD, any stroke, other vascular (eg, non-CHD, nonstroke) mortality, and nonvascular mortality. There was no evidence of a threshold within the range of usual fibrinogen level studied at any age. The age- and sex- adjusted hazard ratio per 1-g/L increase in usual fibrinogen level for CHD was 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.24-2.60); stroke, 2.06 (95% CI, 1.83-2.33); other vascular mortality, 2.76 (95% CI, 2.28-3.35); and nonvascular mortality, 2.03 (95% CI, 1.90-2.18). The hazard ratios for CHD and stroke were reduced to about 1.8 after further adjustment for measured values of several established vascular risk factors. In a subset of 7011 participants with available C-reactive protein values, the findings for CHD were essentially unchanged following additional adjustment for C-reactive protein. The associations of fibrinogen level with CHD or stroke did not differ substantially according to sex, smoking, blood pressure, blood lipid levels, or several features of study design. CONCLUSIONS: In this large individual participant meta-analysis, moderately strong associations were found between usual plasma fibrinogen level and the risks of CHD, stroke, other vascular mortality, and nonvascular mortality in a wide range of circumstances in healthy middle-aged adults. Assessment of any causal relevance of elevated fibrinogen levels to disease requires additional research.

Ischaemic heart disease is a complex phenotype arising from the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. Excessive production of reactive oxygen species leading to endothelial dysfunction is believed to be important in the pathogenesis of ischaemic heart disease. The NAD(P)H oxidase system generates superoxide anions in vascular cells; however, the role of the C242T polymorphism of the NAD(P)H oxidase p22 phox gene in ischaemic heart disease is unclear due to contradictory results from case-control studies. Consequently, we applied family-based association tests to investigate the role of this polymorphism in ischaemic heart disease in a well-defined Irish population. A total of 1023 individuals from 388 families (discordant sibships and parent/child trios) were recruited. Linkage disequilibrium between the polymorphism and ischaemic heart disease was tested using the combined transmission disequilibrium test (TDT)/sib-TDT (cTDT) and pedigree disequilibrium test (PDT). Both cTDT and PDT analyses found no statistically significant excess transmission of either allele to affected individuals (P =0.30 and P =0.28, respectively). Using robust family-based association tests specifically designed for the study of complex diseases, we found no evidence that the C242T polymorphism of the p22 phox gene has a significant role in the development of ischaemic heart disease in our population.

In this paper present two methods of estimating the trend, seasonality and noise in time series of coronary heart disease events. In contrast to previous work we use a non-linear trend, allow multiple seasonal components, and carefully examine the residuals from the fitted model. We show the importance of estimating these three aspects of the observed data to aid insight of the underlying process, although our major focus is on the seasonal components. For one method we allow the seasonal effects to vary over time and show how this helps the understanding of the association between coronary heart disease and varying temperature patterns.