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Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1019: 1–6 (2004). © 2004 New York Academy of Sciences.
doi: 10.1196/annals.1297.091
Early-Life Programming of Aging
and Longevity
The Idea of High Initial Damage Load
(the HIDL Hypothesis)
LEONID A. GAVRILOV AND NATALIA S. GAVRILOVA
Center on Aging, National Opinion Research Center (NORC) and University of Chicago,
Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA
ABSTRACT: In this study, we test the predictions of the high initial damage load
(HIDL) hypothesis, a scientific idea that early development of living organisms
produces an exceptionally high load of initial damage, which is comparable
with the amount of subsequent aging-related deterioration accumulating during
the rest of the entire adult life. This hypothesis predicts that even a small
progress in optimizing the early-developmental processes can potentially result
in a remarkable prevention of many diseases in later life, postponement of aging-
related morbidity and mortality, and significant extension of healthy life span.
KEYWORDS: high initial damage load (HIDL); aging; longevity; early-life;
development; programming
INTRODUCTION
In 1991, we suggested a scientific idea that early development of living organisms
produces an exceptionally high load of initial damage, which is comparable with the
amount of subsequent aging-related deterioration accumulating during the rest of the
entire adult life.1
This idea of high initial damage load (the HIDL hypothesis) predicts that even a
small progress in optimizing the early-developmental processes can potentially result
in a remarkable prevention of many diseases in later life, postponement of aging-
related morbidity and mortality, and significant extension of healthy life span.1–3
Thus, the idea of early-life programming of aging and longevity may have important
practical implications for developing early-life interventions promoting health and
longevity.
In this study, we tested the predictions of the HIDL hypothesis. Specifically, the
HIDL hypothesis predicts that early-life events may affect survival in later adult life
through the level of initial damage. This prediction is confirmed for such early-life
factors as paternal age at a person’s conception4 and the month of a person’s birth.4,5
Address for correspondence: Leonid A. Gavrilov, Center on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago,
1155 East 60th Street, Chicago, IL 60637-2745. Voice: 773-256-6359; fax: 773-256-6313.
gavrilov@longevity-science.org
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Forthcoming in the Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, vol.
1019, June 2004
2 ANNALS NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Another testable prediction of the HIDL hypothesis is a prevision of an unusual
nonlinear pattern of life-span inheritance. This prediction is tested and confirmed:
familial transmission of life span from parents to children follows a nonlinear
(accelerating) pattern, with steeper slopes for offspring life span of longer-lived
parents, as predicted.6
DISCUSSION OF THE IDEA OF HIGH INITIAL DAMAGE LOAD
The introductory section presented earlier is written as an abstract briefly
summarizing the main ideas, findings, and conclusions of our studies. The purpose
of this section is to provide a more detailed discussion of the idea of HIDL.
Reliability theory of aging predicts that a failure rate of simple redundant systems
increases with age according to the Weibull (power) law.1–3 This theoretical predic-
tion is consistent with empirical observations that failure kinetics of technical devices
follow the Weibull law.7 However, biological systems “prefer” to fail according to
the Gompertz (exponential) law,1,8 which calls for explanations.
An attempt to explain exponential deterioration of biosystems in terms of the
reliability theory led us to a paradoxical conjecture that biological systems start their
adult life with a high load of initial damage.1–3
Although this idea may look like a counterintuitive assumption, it fits well with
many empirical observations on massive cell losses in early development. For
example, the female human fetus at 4–5 months of age possesses 6–7 million eggs
(oocytes). By birth, this number drops to 1–2 million and declines even further. At the
start of puberty in normal girls, there are only 0.3–0.5 million eggs, just only 4–8%
of initial numbers (for review, see Ref. 3).
Massive cell losses in early development are creating conditions for a Poisson
distribution of organisms according to the numbers of remaining cells, which in turn
produce the exponential (Gompertzian) law of mortality increase.1 Because the
mathematical proof for this statement is already published elsewhere for a more
general case of binomial distribution,1 we can concentrate here on substantive
discussion of the idea of HIDL in biological systems.
Biological systems are different from technical devices in two aspects. The first
fundamental feature of biosystems is that, in contrast to technical (artificial) devices,
which are constructed out of previously manufactured and tested components,
organisms form themselves in ontogenesis through a process of self-assembly out of
de novo forming and externally untested elements (cells). The second property of
organisms is the extraordinary degree of miniaturization of their components (the
microscopic dimensions of cells, as well as the molecular dimensions of information
carriers like DNA and RNA), permitting the creation of a huge redundancy in the
number of elements. Thus, we can expect that for living organisms, in distinction to
many technical (manufactured) devices, the reliability of the system is achieved not by
the high initial quality of all the elements, but by their huge numbers (redundancy).
The fundamental difference in the manner in which the system is formed (external
assembly in the case of technical devices and self-assembly in the case of bio-
systems) has two important consequences. First, it leads to the macroscopicity of
technical devices in comparison with biosystems since technical devices are assem-
bled “top-down” with the participation of a macroscopic system (humans) and must
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3GAVRILOV & GAVRILOVA: EARLY-LIFE PROGRAMMING OF AGING
be suitable for this macroscopic system to use (i.e., commensurate with humans).
Organisms, on the other hand, are assembled “bottom-up” from molecules and cells,
resulting in an exceptionally high degree of miniaturization of the component parts.
Second, since technical devices are assembled under the control of humans, the
opportunities to pretest components (external quality control) are incomparably
greater than in the self-assembly of biosystems. The latter inevitably leads to
organisms being “littered” with a great number of defective elements. As a result,
the reliability of technical devices is assured by the high quality of elements, with a
strict limit on their numbers because of size and cost limitations, while the reliability
of biosystems is assured by an exceptionally high degree of redundancy to overcome
the poor quality of some elements.
It follows from this concept of HIDL that even small progress in optimizing the
processes of ontogenesis and increasing the numbers of initially functional elements
can potentially result in a remarkable fall in mortality and a significant improvement
in life span. This optimistic prediction is supported by experimental evidence of
increased offspring life span in response to protection of parental germ cells against
oxidative damage just by feeding the future parents with antioxidants.9 Increased life
span is also observed among the progeny of parents with a low resting respiration
rate (proxy for the rate of oxidative damage to DNA of germ cells; see Ref. 1). The
concept of HIDL also predicts that early life events may affect survival in later adult
life through the level of initial damage. This prediction proved to be correct for such
early-life indicators as parental age at a person’s conception4 and the month of a
person’s birth (see FIG. 1, TABLE 1, and earlier publications4,5).
FIGURE 1. Daughters’ life span as a function of paternal age at daughter’s birth: 5063
daughters from European aristocratic families born in 1800–1880. Both parents lived 50+
years. Details of data analysis are described elsewhere.4
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4 ANNALS NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Women may be particularly sensitive to early-life exposures because they are
mosaics of two different cell types (one with an active paternal X chromosome and
another one with an active maternal X chromosome). The exact pattern of this
mosaic is determined early in life. If early-life conditions affect the proportion (or
distribution pattern) of cells with a given X chromosome, such conditions might
have long-lasting effects in later life. Indeed, this conjecture of stronger female
response to early-life exposures is confirmed for such early-life predictors of adult life
span as paternal age at a person’s conception4 and the month of a person’s birth.4,5
Another testable prediction of the HIDL hypothesis is a prediction of an unusual
nonlinear pattern of life-span inheritance. Traditionally, it is assumed that the depen-
dence of progeny life span on parental life span should follow a linear relationship,
which is common to all other quantitative traits in classic quantitative genetics.10 In
other words, for each additional year of parental life span, the children are expected
to have some fixed gain in their average life span too, as a result of polygenic
TABLE 1. Female life span as a function of month of birth
Month of birth
Net effect, in years
(point estimate) Standard error P value
February 0.00 Reference level
March 1.10 0.92 .2331
April 1.72 0.92 .0619
May 2.35 0.90 .0090
June 1.66 0.90 .0665
July 1.86 0.91 .0404
August 1.49 0.90 .0978
September 1.51 0.92 .0986
October 1.95 0.90 .0308
November 2.13 0.93 .0229
December 3.04 0.91 .0009
January 0.94 0.92 .3086
February 0.00 Reference level
NOTE: Results are obtained through multivariate regression analysis of life-span data (outcome
variable) for 6908 women born in 1800–1880 (extinct birth cohorts with life span known for
each person), who survived by age 30 (focus on analysis of adult life span). The following addi-
tional predictor variables are also included in the final model because of their predictive value:
(1) calendar year of birth, (2) ethnicity (Russian, British, and others), (3) loss of father during
formative years of childhood (before age 15), (4) loss of mother during formative years of child-
hood (before age 15), (5) cause of death (violent vs. nonviolent), (6) early death of at least one
sibling (before age 30), (7) high birth order (7+), (8) nobility rank of the father (indicator of
social status), (9) large family size (number of siblings: 9+), (10) maternal life span, (11) paternal
life span, (12) paternal age at person’s birth, (13) late paternal age at first childbirth (50+ years),
(14) birth of the first child by mother after age 30, and (15) death of mother from violent cause of
death. The F value for the regression model is 18.12 (P < .0001). “Net effect” corresponds to
additional years of life gained (or lost) compared to the reference category (life span for those
born in February).
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5GAVRILOV & GAVRILOVA: EARLY-LIFE PROGRAMMING OF AGING
inheritance of quantitative traits.10 However, the HIDL hypothesis leads to a very
different prediction of a nonlinear (accelerated) “concave-up” pattern of life-span
inheritance. There should be virtually no life-span heritability (a negligible response
of progeny life span to the changes in parental life span) when parental life span is
below a certain age, and a much higher heritability (an increased response to parental
life span) when parents live longer lives. This prediction follows from the hypothesis
of HIDL among short-lived parents, whose bodies are damaged during early devel-
opmental processes, although their germ-cell DNA might be perfectly normal. (If the
germ-cell DNA were damaged too, these short-lived parents would probably
produce offspring who also live short lives. This category will thus be unlikely to
distort the linear dependence of offspring life span on parental life span by a large
amount.) Therefore, the progeny of some short-lived parents may have quite normal
life spans, well beyond genetic expectations. This result would thus obstruct the classic
linear offspring-on-parent dependence for life span. Only at some high parental life
span, when most of the germ-normal/somatically damaged parents are eliminated
because of their shorter length of life, will the classic linear pattern of life-span
inheritance eventually reveal itself in its full capacity. This prediction of the HIDL
hypothesis was tested and confirmed in humans: familial transmission of life span
from parents to children proved to follow a nonlinear (accelerating) pattern, with
steeper slopes for the life span of offspring born to longer-lived parents, as predicted.6
Thus, there is mounting evidence now in support of the idea of fetal origins of
adult degenerative diseases, and early-life programming of aging and longevity.4
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This study was made possible thanks to a generous support from the National
Institute on Aging (NIH) and a stimulating working environment at the Center on
Aging, NORC/University of Chicago. We would like to thank members of the
Science Advisory Board (SAB) (http://www.scienceboard.net/) for useful comments
on our work made at the SAB discussion group.
REFERENCES
1. GAVRIL OV, L.A. & N.S. GAVRILOVA. 1991. The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative
Approach. Harwood Academic. New York.
2. GAVRILOV, L.A. & N.S. GAVRILOVA. 2001. The reliability theory of aging and longevity.
J. Theor. Biol. 213: 527–545.
3. GAVRIL OV, L.A. & N.S. GAVRI LOVA. 2003 (July 16). The quest for a general theory of
aging and longevity. Science’s SAGE KE (Science of Aging Knowledge Environment)
2003(28): 1–10 [available at http://sageke.sciencemag.org].
4. GAVRIL OV, L.A. & N.S. GAVR ILOVA. 2003. Early-life factors modulating lifespan.
In Modulating Aging and Longevity, pp. 27–50. Kluwer. Dordrecht.
5. GAVRIL OV, L.A. & N.S. GAVRILOVA. 1999. Season of birth and human longevity. J.
Anti-Aging Med. 2: 365–366.
6. GAVRIL OVA, N.S. & L.A. GAVRILOV. 2001. When does human longevity start?
Demarcation of the boundaries for human longevity. J. Anti-Aging Med. 4: 115–124.
7. WEIBULL, W.A. 1951. A statistical distribution function of wide applicability. J. Appl.
Mech. 18: 293–297.
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6 ANNALS NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
8. GOMPERTZ, B. 1825. On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human
mortality and on a new mode of determining life contingencies. Philos. Trans. R.
Soc. London A115: 513–585.
9. HARMAN, D. & D.E. EDDY. 1979. Free radical theory of aging: beneficial effects of
adding antioxidants to the maternal mouse diet on life span of offspring: possible
explanation of the sex difference in longevity. AGE 2: 109-122.
10. FALCONER, D.S. & T.F.C. MACKAY. 1996. Introduction to Quantitative Genetics.
Longman. London.
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