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... Differencing does not, on its own, offer a solution to Manski's (1993) "reflection" endogeneity issue in linear-in-means models and spatial econometrics. To address this, we exploit the unique properties of spatial one-time house price data. ...
... Gibbons (2004) was one of the first papers to employ a linear-inmeans (LIM) specification for housing transaction data in order to retrieve the capitalization of property crime by instrumenting to account for the endogeneity. Szumilo Constructing identification strategies for endogenous peer effects is particularly difficult due to unobservables, the reflection problem, and data limitations (Manski, 1993; Goldsmith-Pinkham and Imbens, 2013). Therein, though, lies the potential to partially disentangle the endogeneity feedback loop that is often created by spatial and/or temporal aggregation. ...
... This breaks the "reflection" feedback loop and satisfies a key condition, 4 as noted in Szumilo (2021), for estimating linear-in-means (LIM) models on house prices: that the price of house h should not influence the average price in the neighborhood (i.e. of peers), used, in turn, to estimate its own price. In taking the relation between j and h to be, strictly, a unidirectional information flow, we make the first step in relaxing the sweeping assumption in Manski (1993) that buyers/sellers of j and h belong to the same group and tend to behave similarly. ...
... for i = 1, · · · , n and t = 1, · · · , T , where X it is a L-dimensional row-vector of exogenous variables and u it is the error term. The coefficients α ij represent dyad-specific endogenous peer effects (Manski 1993). 2 Our goal is to test for the presence of peer effects, i.e., H 0 : α ij = 0 for all potential pairs of peers (i, j). ...
... where the coefficients γ ij represent dyad-specific exogenous peer effects (Manski 1993). The peer effect term can be written more compactly as ...
... In Remark 2, we discuss an alternative specification of the unrestricted model including exogenous peer effects(Manski 1993), and show that a rejection of our test indicates the presence of either endogenous or exogenous peer effects. Since our test is particularly suitable for pre-testing for the presence of peer effects before starting time-consuming data collection on network links, the exact nature of the peer effect (i.e., whether it is endogenous or exogenous) is less of an issue when performing our test. ...
This paper proposes an Anderson-Rubin (AR) test for the presence of peer effects in panel data without the need to specify the network structure. The unrestricted model of our test is a linear panel data model of social interactions with dyad-specific peer effects. The proposed AR test evaluates if the peer effect coefficients are all zero. As the number of peer effect coefficients increases with the sample size, so does the number of instrumental variables (IVs) employed to estimate the unrestricted model, rendering Bekker's many-IV environment. By extending existing many-IV asymptotic results to panel data, we show that the proposed AR test is asymptotically valid under the presence of both individual and time fixed effects. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the finite sample performance of the AR test and provide two applications to demonstrate its empirical relevance.
... In addition to the selection correction, the identification of peer effects may be susceptible to the reflection problem (Manski, 1993). The literature has proposed achieving identification through variation in group sizes or intransitive triads (Lee, 2007;Graham, 2008;Davezies et al., 2009;Bramoullé et al., 2009). ...
... We assume that i's outcome y i depends on n j=1 w ij y j and n j=1 w ij x j , the weighted averages of outcomes and observed characteristics of i's peers. Following the terminology in Manski (1993), γ 1 captures the endogenous social effect, and γ 2 captures the exogenous/contextual social effect. The parameter of interest is γ = (γ 1 , γ ′ 2 , γ ′ 3 ) ′ ∈ R 2dx+1 . ...
... Assume that w ij = 0 if g i ̸ = g j -an individual is influenced by her groupmates only. A typical example is given by group averages where w ij = 1 ng i if g i = g j and w ij = 0 if g i ̸ = g j (Manski, 1993). We can also allow w ij to take a more general form so long as the interactions occur within a group. ...
This paper explores the identification and estimation of social interaction models with endogenous group formation. We characterize group formation using a two-sided many-to-one matching model, where individuals select groups based on their preferences, while groups rank individuals according to their qualifications, accepting the most qualified until reaching capacities. The selection into groups leads to a bias in standard estimates of peer effects, which is difficult to correct for due to equilibrium effects. We employ the limiting approximation of a market as the market size grows large to simplify the selection bias. Assuming exchangeable unobservables, we can express the selection bias of an individual as a group-invariant nonparametric function of her preference and qualification indices. In addition to the selection correction, we show that the excluded variables in group formation can serve as instruments to tackle the reflection problem. We propose semiparametric distribution-free estimators that are root-n consistent and asymptotically normal.
... Our hypothesis is that the influence of females' schoolmates is relevant in shaping their behaviors in adulthood. According to Manski (1993) terminology, this peer effect is a contextual effect. ...
... Because we want to estimate a contextual effect, we use an empirical approach that is very similar to the one presented in Olivetti et al. (2020). According to Manski's terminology (Manski (1993)) the peer effect we analyze is a contextual effect because we focus on one specific characteristic of high school peers: their families' fertility patterns. Our empirical strategy exploits idiosyncratic variation in the family fertility experience across different cohorts (each cohort is composed by individuals in same school and grade). ...
... We differentiate between the extensive margin (motherhood decision) and the intensive margin (total number of children) in the fertility decision and we evaluate the importance of the peer effect in both margins. More precisely, following the terminology of Manski (1993), we consider a contextual peer effect: we focus on one specific characteristic of high school peers which is their families' fertility patterns. ...
In the new era of economics of fertility, the identification of the determinants of fertility has become one of the major challenges. This paper analyzes how the fertility patterns of both female teenagers' own families and peers' families (measured as the number of siblings) affect their future fertility choices. Our analysis distinguishes between the extensive (be-coming a mother or not) and the intensive (total number of children) margin of fertility. We provide five main results. First, neither own number of siblings nor peers' number of siblings affect whether a woman becomes a mother or not. Second, women with more siblings and women whose peers had more siblings tend to have more children. Third, the peer effect is stronger for women who reported having a less close relationship with their mothers. Forth, women that were teenagers characterized by high scores and being involved in activities related to popularity experience a negligible peer effect. Further, more communication between teenagers' parents increases the influence of women's own family but reduces the peer effect. These results suggest that fertility patterns of both female teenagers' own families and peers' families are relevant in shaping women's identity-defining role in fertility, specially in the intensive margin; and that the relative importance of these two patterns depends on the quality of the relationships between all actors (between teenagers, between teenagers and their parents, and between teenagers' parents).
... The reflection problem arises because the individual is influenced by the reference group, but at the same time, an individual's decision also determines the group behavior. See Manski (1993). 22. ...
... 34. Manski (1993). 35. ...
... 41. Manski (1993). ...
... The canonical characterization of outcomes being determined by neighbors' actions and characteristics is attributed to Manski (1993): ...
... In such a case, is correlated with both¯− and¯− . Third, this specification is an example of the reflection problem documented by Manski (1993). The reflection problem occurs when agents' actions are determined jointly in equilibrium. ...
... The benchmark spatial autocorrelation model was first presented by Manski (1993). This model does not directly control for any network characteristics but assumes that outcomes are affected by own and neighboring agents' characteristics and actions. ...
This chapter introduces machine learning (ML) approaches to estimate nonlinear econometric models, such as discrete choice models, typically estimated by maximum likelihood techniques. Two families of ML methods are considered in this chapter. The first, shrinkage estimators and related derivatives, such as the Partially Penalised Estimator, introduced in Chapter 1. A formal framework of these concepts is presented as well as a brief literature review. Additionally, some Monte Carlo results are provided to examine the finite sample properties of selected shrinkage estimators for nonlinear models. While shrinkage estimators are typically associated with parametric models, tree based methods can be viewed as their non-parametric counterparts. Thus, the second ML approach considered here is the application of treebased methods in model estimation with a focus on solving classification, or discrete outcome, problems. Overall, the chapter attempts to identify the nexus between these ML methods and conventional techniques ubiquitously used in applied econometrics. This includes a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. Several benefits, as well as strong connections to mainstream econometric methods are uncovered, which may help in the adoption of ML techniques by mainstream econometrics in the discrete and limited dependent variable spheres.
... When certain assumptions are violated by the application of classic regression models on spatial data, spatial regression models can help taking into account the peculiarities that come with spatial data. The Manski Model [Manski, 1993a] (also General Nesting Spatial Model ) conceived by Charles F. Manski is a regression model taking account for different types of spatial effects. The model can be seen as basic model from which the most spatial regression models can be derived of. ...
... According to [Manski, 1993a] there exist three types of hypotheses in regard to spatial effects, able to explain the presence of autocorrelation in spatial linear regression models (spatial effects): ...
... 2.4.1 is the unidentifiability, i.e. the values of coefficients β, ρ, θ and λ can not be estimated simultaneously to get a unique result for each coefficient. This issue is described as the identification problem for the difficulty to separate influences [Manski, 1993b] and finds expression by the formulation of The Reflection Problem [Manski, 1993a] for the difficulty to distinguish between cause and effect of an incorporated variable. This issue will not be discussed in detail since its limited meaning for the application itself but shall at least be mentioned because its importance for the ability to appropriately interpret causalities and the underlying data generating process in a subsequent step of interpretation of the findings. ...
A growing world population, the burdens of climate change as well as increasingly strict
environmental regulations in combination with growing economic pressure are some of
the reasons forcing agriculture to transform. To face the challenges of the coming years
and decades, modern agriculture must become more effective, efficient, and environmentally compatible.
The concepts of precision farming aim to bring about this transformation through technology. As in many other scientific areas, the technologization of agriculture
is driven by the gathering and processing of data. In addition to sensor and image data,
agri-environmental data in particular require suitable spatial analysis methods in order
to be able to serve as a basis of decision-making for man and machine.
This work specifically addresses the question of how spatial anomalies in agricultural
data can be identified. As part of this work, a concept for the processing and homogenization of data from various sources was elaborated. Following this, different types of anomalies were identified by selecting appropriate univariate, multivariate, and Spatio-temporal methods. The presented methods derive from spatial statistics
and represent an extension of more conventional methods of classical statistics or
machine learning. The proposed geostatistical methods can even be used for data sets
of smaller sizes while taking account of major geographical concepts such as spatial
autocorrelation.
The methodology of the work is based almost exclusively on the use of the statistical programming language R for data preprocessing, the actual analysis, and the visualization of results. The concepts, methods as well as implementation in R are elaborated in detail in order to be comprehensible and applicable for disciplines outside of geoinformatics.
Respective research efforts were conducted within the framework of the international
research project iFAROS, which is concerned with the conception and implementation
of a system for the site-specific fertilization of agricultural land.
... Mediating variables such as financial capability are explored in relation to financial well-being, underscoring the multidimensional nature of financial empowerment (Sherraden, 2013). Manski (1993) 41 offers insight into the influence of peer dynamics on social behaviour, encompassing factors such as social norms, reactions, identity considerations, and strategic implementations. Benjamin et. ...
... Mediating variables such as financial capability are explored in relation to financial well-being, underscoring the multidimensional nature of financial empowerment (Sherraden, 2013). Manski (1993) 41 offers insight into the influence of peer dynamics on social behaviour, encompassing factors such as social norms, reactions, identity considerations, and strategic implementations. Benjamin et. ...
India, a country of diversities has travelled a long way in the process of achieving inclusive growth through financial inclusion. The expedition has started from bank nationalisation in the year 1969 to flagship programs like SHG bank Linkage and PMDJY. Historically, women in India have faced various socio-economic challenges, including limited access to financial services and opportunities. To address these challenges and promote the financial inclusion of women, several initiatives and measures have been taken at the government, regulatory, and institutional levels. The PMJDY accounts have shown a remarkable growth in account openings. Around 50.09 Crore Jan Dhan accounts opened as of Aug 2023 where average deposits rise from Rs.1065 crore in 2015 to Rs.4087 Crore in 2023,nearly 3 times over Aug 2015. Around 56% of such accounts are owned by woman, whereas 67% of the accounts are owned by women in rural and semi urban areas (PIB 2023)[i]. But what is more discouraging is that India has the highest in inactive accounts which is 35% globally. In developing economies, women account owners are, on average, 5 percentage points more likely than men are inactive, in India the deviation is highest that is 12 %.Out of the women owned accounts, more than 32% are inactive. The usage of accounts also indicates a different saga as most of them is used for withdrawals of salary or wages, emergencies, or availing Govt. Benefits which leads to a lowering of financial inclusion among the women (Global Findex database 2021)[ii]. It's important to note that despite many advancements achieved by the country with respect to the financial inclusion of women through initiations like PMJDY, introduction of a range of women-centric financial products, such as savings accounts, fixed deposits, and insurance policies, often with special features and incentives, SHGs movements, development of digital financial ecosystem for women in rural areas to access financial services through mobile banking and digital wallets, undertaking financial literacy programs and campaigns aimed at women for improving their financial knowledge and decision-making capabilities, legal reforms related to property rights and inheritance rights, support for Women Entrepreneurs including access to credit, training, and mentorship, and by allocating funds specifically for women's welfare and empowerment through gender budgeting, the challenges still prevailing. The gender gap in financial inclusion still exist, with women in rural and marginalized communities facing more significant barriers. Social and cultural factors, limited financial literacy, and the persistence of gender-based violence in some regions were among the ongoing challenges (Fletschner & Kenney, 2011[iii]). The need for ongoing education and awareness programs, addressing gender biases, and expanding access to financial services in remote areas etc. remain the priorities of the policy makers. Achieving full financial inclusion for women in India requires a multi-faceted approach involving government policies, financial institutions, civil society organizations, and the active participation of women themselves. It is essential for both economic development and gender equality (Duflo, 2012[iv]; Bucciol et.al, 2022[v]).
... Peer effects have been documented for different economic decisions, including consumption (Boneva, 2014), stock market participation in the country of birth of immigrants is not influenced by that of native residents in Luxembourg, and, therefore, reverse causality can be excluded. To further disentangle the peer effect from contextual and correlated effects (Manski, 1993), we explicitly control for individual investment preferences and for municipality-specific characteristics. ...
... It is well known that due to the reflection problem (Manski, 1993), a simple regression of a native's decision to invest in stocks on stock ownership rate among immigrants in their community would not produce a consistent estimate of the peer effect of interest, that is, how natives change their stock market participation behavior in response to different investment attitudes of their immigrant peers. More specifically, the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimate of the coefficient , meant to capture this effect, would be biased due to reverse causality and omitted confounding contextual and correlated effects. ...
This paper studies how peers' financial behavior affects individuals' own investment choices. To identify the peer effect, we exploit the composition of the Luxembourg population and use the differences in stock market participation across various immigrant groups to study the effect on stock market participation of natives. We find that stock market participation of immigrant peers has a sizable effect on that of natives and that social learning is one of the channels through which this peer effect occurs. However, social learning alone does not account for the entire effect. Social utility might, therefore, also play an important role in peer effect transmission.
... Empirical studies that seek to understand how social networks affect technology diffusion have to grapple with the identification challenge articulated by Manski (1993) concerning the separation of three effects that drive the correlation of outcomes within a social network: Endogenous effect, i.e., influence of peer actions; exogeneous effect, i.e., influence of exogenous characteristics of peers; and correlated effects, which capture the phenomenon that peers tend to behave similarly as they share similar traits or face similar environments. It is argued that when employing the workhorse linear-in-means model-in which an individual's outcome is a linear function of the average outcome of one's reference group, average socioeconomic characteristics of the reference group, and one's own socioeconomic characteristics-inference on endogenous effects would be impossible without information on the composition of reference groups (Manski 1993(Manski , 2000. ...
... Empirical studies that seek to understand how social networks affect technology diffusion have to grapple with the identification challenge articulated by Manski (1993) concerning the separation of three effects that drive the correlation of outcomes within a social network: Endogenous effect, i.e., influence of peer actions; exogeneous effect, i.e., influence of exogenous characteristics of peers; and correlated effects, which capture the phenomenon that peers tend to behave similarly as they share similar traits or face similar environments. It is argued that when employing the workhorse linear-in-means model-in which an individual's outcome is a linear function of the average outcome of one's reference group, average socioeconomic characteristics of the reference group, and one's own socioeconomic characteristics-inference on endogenous effects would be impossible without information on the composition of reference groups (Manski 1993(Manski , 2000. ...
... Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) occurs when ? = 0, whereas Spatial Error Model (SEM) is applied when 8 = 0 (Anselin, 1988;Manski, 1993;Anselin & Bera, 1998;Anselin & Moreno, 2003;Haining, 2003;Anselin & Rey, 1991;Anselin et al., 1996;Elhorst, 2003;2014;Baltagi, 2013;Baltagi et al., 2003;. ...
... In order to select the proper model, we apply Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests to the model. It tests the presence of spatial autocorrelation either by assuming spatial interaction among states in the dependent variable or in errors (Anselin, 1988;Manski, 1993;Anselin & Bera, 1998;Anselin & Moreno, 2003;Haining, 2003;Anselin & Rey, 1991;Anselin et al., 1996;Elhorst, 2003;2014;Baltagi, 2013;Baltagi et al., 2003;. Bera et al., 2019). ...
Research background: Taylor rule is a widely adopted approach to follow monetary policy and investigate various mechanisms related to or triggered by monetary policy. To date, no in-depth examination of scale, determinants and spillovers of state-level monetary policy stress, stemming from the Federal Reserve Board?s (Fed?s) policy has been performed. Purpose of the article: This paper aims to investigate the nature of monetary policy stress on US States delivered by the single monetary policy by using a quarterly dataset spanning the years between 1989 and 2017. Methods: We apply a wide array of time series and panel regressions, such as unit root tests, co-integration tests, co-integrating FMOLS and DOLS regressions, and Spatial Panel SAR and SEM models. Findings & value added: When average stress imposed on states is calculated, it is observed that the level of stress is moderate, but the distribution across states is asymmetric. The cross-state determinants behind the average stress show that states with a higher percentage of working-age and highly educated population, as well as those with higher population density and more export-oriented are negatively stressed (i.e. they experience excessively low interest rates), whereas higher unemployment rate contributes to a positive stress (too high interest rates). To the best of our knowledge, the contribution of this paper lies in estimating monetary policy stress at the state level and unveiling some of the determinants of this stress. Moreover, the paper makes the first attempt to empirically test spatial spillovers of the stress, which are indeed found significant and negative.
... To test the pollution transfer effect and knowledge spillover effect, this paper draws on the idea of Manski (1993) to construct Eq. (10): ...
... Similar to the problem in Manski (1993), due to the existence of WEE − i(CRE=1)t , Eq. (10) has a reflection problem, which may not be recognized by ordinary linear mean models. In order to overcome this problem, this paper uses the generalized moment estimation (GMM) method to solve endogenity problem (Chen et al., 2017;De Coninck et al., 2007). ...
China Railway Express (CRE) has changed the cargo transportation between China and Europe, as well as the environmental efficiency of relevant cities. This paper uses panel data for China's 256 cities from 2005 to 2018 and multi-period difference-indifferences (DID) method to study the impact and influence mechanism of CRE on environmental efficiency. The results found that the implementation of CRE has significantly improved environmental efficiency. The opening of CRE has improved environmental performance by promoting technological innovation and reducing the introduction of polluting foreign investment. The paper further examines and verifies that there are effects on resource crowding out and knowledge spillover between cities. The opening of CRE has a much greater impact on knowledge spillover. This study provides useful policy insights for improving environmental efficiency.
... Two of Kei's study villages are located in Central Luzon (CL) (CL1 represents irrigated ecosystem, CL2 represents the lowland rainfed ecosystem), and two are located on Panay island (P) (P1 represents irrigated ecosystem, and P2 represents the upland). 1 Surveys were done in 1985 consisting of a randomly selected subsample of households in four villages. In 1993, censuses of all households in the three villages (CL2, P1, and P2) were done. Mahabub Hossain, with funding from the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), conducted the 1993, 1997, and 2001 surveys. ...
... Identifying these effects faces the reflection problem posed by Manski (1993). That is, because an individual's outcome tends to be simultaneously determined by his neighbors' outcomes, and an individual tends to choose his own group, decomposing these will be necessary. ...
The Green Revolution has brought about a significant increase in agricultural productivity, expediting a shift in industrial structure. Although economic theories have been based on the dichotomy of agricultural and industrial sectors, the actual shift is more gradual. In this chapter, we discuss the role of upstream and downstream industries of agriculture in development strategy from the perspective of global value chains. We claim that agricultural processing and retail industries can integrate agricultural and industrial developments. In this regard, the model of cluster-based development is informative, and the role of human capital investment and associations is essential. We also provide an overview of the development of the tapioca industry in Thailand as an illustrative case study. This discussion ultimately aims to redefine agricultural development as a part of long-term economic development.
... Two of Kei's study villages are located in Central Luzon (CL) (CL1 represents irrigated ecosystem, CL2 represents the lowland rainfed ecosystem), and two are located on Panay island (P) (P1 represents irrigated ecosystem, and P2 represents the upland). 1 Surveys were done in 1985 consisting of a randomly selected subsample of households in four villages. In 1993, censuses of all households in the three villages (CL2, P1, and P2) were done. Mahabub Hossain, with funding from the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), conducted the 1993, 1997, and 2001 surveys. ...
... Identifying these effects faces the reflection problem posed by Manski (1993). That is, because an individual's outcome tends to be simultaneously determined by his neighbors' outcomes, and an individual tends to choose his own group, decomposing these will be necessary. ...
More than half of the world’s population relies on wheat, maize, and rice for their daily dietary energy. In 2019, the daily per person average calorie intake was 2,963 kilocalories (kcal), in which the share was more than 18.2% (538 kcal) for wheat, 5.4% (159 kcal) for maize, and 18.3% (542 kcal) for rice. It is projected that by 2050, the total global population is expected to reach between 8.9 and 10.6 billion from 7.8 billion in 2020. Thus, it will be imperative to produce more wheat, maize, and rice to ensure the food security of the world’s burgeoning population. While it is imperative to produce more food, the emergence and re-emergence of lethal crop diseases and their spread from the epicenters to new regions continuously threaten crop yield, farmers’ income, and the world’s food security. For example, the emergence of maize lethal necrosis (MLN) in Africa has generated a credible threat to global and African food security. This study quantified MLN-induced maize production loss in Kenya, DR Congo, and Tanzania. Applying the time-series projection method, this study estimates that the loss in maize production due to MLN was 442 thousand tons in Kenya, nearly 12 thousand tons in DR Congo, and 663 thousand tons in Tanzania. As more pest- and disease-related crop losses are expected due to the changes in global climate, this study concludes by suggesting that it is imperative to invest more in research and development of disease-resistant crop varieties globally to ensure food and nutrition security, particularly in the global south.
... Two of Kei's study villages are located in Central Luzon (CL) (CL1 represents irrigated ecosystem, CL2 represents the lowland rainfed ecosystem), and two are located on Panay island (P) (P1 represents irrigated ecosystem, and P2 represents the upland). 1 Surveys were done in 1985 consisting of a randomly selected subsample of households in four villages. In 1993, censuses of all households in the three villages (CL2, P1, and P2) were done. Mahabub Hossain, with funding from the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), conducted the 1993, 1997, and 2001 surveys. ...
... Identifying these effects faces the reflection problem posed by Manski (1993). That is, because an individual's outcome tends to be simultaneously determined by his neighbors' outcomes, and an individual tends to choose his own group, decomposing these will be necessary. ...
Rice-growing villages that look dormant under the shadow of mango trees have undergone a major transformation in their economies. Such transformation is accompanied by household income growth and poverty reduction. The first objective of this chapter is to describe the drivers of economic transformation in four villages (Kei’s villages) in the Philippines from simple rice-dependent economies to more complex ones characterized by diverse sources of livelihood. The drivers of these economic transformations are population pressure, new rice technology, land reform, investments in human capital, urbanization and commercialization, and infrastructure. The second objective is to explore the strategic processes that accompany such transformation, such as rising productivity of rice farming, production of high-value crops, and rising incidence of nonfarm work within the local economy and migration to local towns, big cities, and overseas, among the younger generation. An important finding is that in the course of transformation, participation in the nonfarm labor market and migration are the main pathways in moving out of poverty for the children of poor landless farmers.
... Two of Kei's study villages are located in Central Luzon (CL) (CL1 represents irrigated ecosystem, CL2 represents the lowland rainfed ecosystem), and two are located on Panay island (P) (P1 represents irrigated ecosystem, and P2 represents the upland). 1 Surveys were done in 1985 consisting of a randomly selected subsample of households in four villages. In 1993, censuses of all households in the three villages (CL2, P1, and P2) were done. Mahabub Hossain, with funding from the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), conducted the 1993, 1997, and 2001 surveys. ...
... Identifying these effects faces the reflection problem posed by Manski (1993). That is, because an individual's outcome tends to be simultaneously determined by his neighbors' outcomes, and an individual tends to choose his own group, decomposing these will be necessary. ...
... Two of Kei's study villages are located in Central Luzon (CL) (CL1 represents irrigated ecosystem, CL2 represents the lowland rainfed ecosystem), and two are located on Panay island (P) (P1 represents irrigated ecosystem, and P2 represents the upland). 1 Surveys were done in 1985 consisting of a randomly selected subsample of households in four villages. In 1993, censuses of all households in the three villages (CL2, P1, and P2) were done. Mahabub Hossain, with funding from the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), conducted the 1993, 1997, and 2001 surveys. ...
... Identifying these effects faces the reflection problem posed by Manski (1993). That is, because an individual's outcome tends to be simultaneously determined by his neighbors' outcomes, and an individual tends to choose his own group, decomposing these will be necessary. ...
How can we achieve a rice Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa? In this chapter, we evaluate the progress of the rice Green Revolution and discuss potential policy interventions to achieve it in Tanzania. For these purposes, we summarize four studies that have been conducted by the authors. Especially, we focus on the effectiveness of irrigation, agricultural training, and microcredit for technology adoption and productivity enhancement of rice cultivation. We found a high potential for the rice Green Revolution in Tanzania and that it can be achievable with proper policy interventions. We propose irrigation development and agricultural training as effective means to achieve the rice Green Revolution in Tanzania.
... Two of Kei's study villages are located in Central Luzon (CL) (CL1 represents irrigated ecosystem, CL2 represents the lowland rainfed ecosystem), and two are located on Panay island (P) (P1 represents irrigated ecosystem, and P2 represents the upland). 1 Surveys were done in 1985 consisting of a randomly selected subsample of households in four villages. In 1993, censuses of all households in the three villages (CL2, P1, and P2) were done. Mahabub Hossain, with funding from the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), conducted the 1993, 1997, and 2001 surveys. ...
... Identifying these effects faces the reflection problem posed by Manski (1993). That is, because an individual's outcome tends to be simultaneously determined by his neighbors' outcomes, and an individual tends to choose his own group, decomposing these will be necessary. ...
Governments in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have made concerted efforts to improve farmers’ adoption of modern technologies in their farm operations to realize a rice Green Revolution, improve food security, and alleviate poverty. However, smallholder farmers’ access to farm mechanization in SSA remains constrained due to supply-side and demand-side challenges. On the supply side, the market for agricultural machinery services is often underdeveloped. On the demand side, the smallholders with inadequate knowledge of improved rice cultivation practices have limited demand for mechanized services despite increasing wage rates. This study analyzes the mechanization process of rice farmers in the Mwea Irrigation Scheme, Kenya. The Mwea Irrigation Scheme is the most advanced rice production area in SSA, with farmers familiar with improved rice cultivation practices, well-functioning input credit markets, and millers adopting modern milling technologies, enabling local rice to compete with imported Asian rice. Analyzing original data collected in 2011, 2016, and 2018, we found that most farmers in Mwea implemented rotavation using tractor services provided by farmers’ cooperatives, while they implemented leveling using draft animals. Non-cooperative members reduced tractor use and adopted draft animals to implement both harrowing and leveling, implying the importance of a well-developed mechanization service market.
... Two of Kei's study villages are located in Central Luzon (CL) (CL1 represents irrigated ecosystem, CL2 represents the lowland rainfed ecosystem), and two are located on Panay island (P) (P1 represents irrigated ecosystem, and P2 represents the upland). 1 Surveys were done in 1985 consisting of a randomly selected subsample of households in four villages. In 1993, censuses of all households in the three villages (CL2, P1, and P2) were done. Mahabub Hossain, with funding from the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), conducted the 1993, 1997, and 2001 surveys. ...
... Identifying these effects faces the reflection problem posed by Manski (1993). That is, because an individual's outcome tends to be simultaneously determined by his neighbors' outcomes, and an individual tends to choose his own group, decomposing these will be necessary. ...
The Green Revolution had profound positive impacts on human welfare and economic development across the developing world. However, its global reach was limited by agroclimatic, infrastructural, social, and political constraints. Regional disparities in poverty reduction, intra-societal inequities, and gender differences in the distribution of benefits persist even in countries that witnessed positive Green Revolution outcomes. This essay synthesizes the lessons learned and the policy redirections needed for a ‘redux’ version of the Green Revolution that enhances food and nutrition security and economic development while minimizing social, environmental, and health tradeoffs.
... Two of Kei's study villages are located in Central Luzon (CL) (CL1 represents irrigated ecosystem, CL2 represents the lowland rainfed ecosystem), and two are located on Panay island (P) (P1 represents irrigated ecosystem, and P2 represents the upland). 1 Surveys were done in 1985 consisting of a randomly selected subsample of households in four villages. In 1993, censuses of all households in the three villages (CL2, P1, and P2) were done. Mahabub Hossain, with funding from the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), conducted the 1993, 1997, and 2001 surveys. ...
... Identifying these effects faces the reflection problem posed by Manski (1993). That is, because an individual's outcome tends to be simultaneously determined by his neighbors' outcomes, and an individual tends to choose his own group, decomposing these will be necessary. ...
Climate change is expected to increase the incidence and magnitudes of extreme weather events. To help farmers mitigate the expected impacts of extreme weather events, abiotic stress-tolerant crop varieties have been developed. The diffusions of the stress-tolerant crop varieties, however, have been limited. This chapter reviews recent studies on the adoption and impacts of the submergence-tolerant rice varieties in South Asia. Studies have identified significant benefits of those rice varieties in South Asia using various survey and analytical methods. However, farmers have problems identifying submergence-tolerant rice varieties in informal seed markets. Using DNA fingerprinting, a study found that many farmers in Bangladesh could not identify varietal names correctly. Effective public interventions are needed to help farmers in flood-prone areas adopt submergence-tolerant rice varieties.
... Two of Kei's study villages are located in Central Luzon (CL) (CL1 represents irrigated ecosystem, CL2 represents the lowland rainfed ecosystem), and two are located on Panay island (P) (P1 represents irrigated ecosystem, and P2 represents the upland). 1 Surveys were done in 1985 consisting of a randomly selected subsample of households in four villages. In 1993, censuses of all households in the three villages (CL2, P1, and P2) were done. Mahabub Hossain, with funding from the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), conducted the 1993, 1997, and 2001 surveys. ...
... Identifying these effects faces the reflection problem posed by Manski (1993). That is, because an individual's outcome tends to be simultaneously determined by his neighbors' outcomes, and an individual tends to choose his own group, decomposing these will be necessary. ...
This study investigates the possibilities and limitations of integrated farming management practices, such as sustainable intensification, integrated soil fertility management, climate-smart agriculture (CSA), and conservation agriculture (CA) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), based on a literature review. We first introduce the concept of these practices as a means to improve land productivity while maintaining agricultural sustainability. Subsequently, we show the adoption determinants and their effects based on recently published empirical studies in SSA. Finally, we conclude with the policy implications and research agenda to disseminate optimum integrated farming management practices and achieve a sustainable African Green Revolution in SSA.
... To highlight the empirical implications on estimating network effects, we revisit the empirical identification of network effects in light of the reflection problem. The reflection problem described by Manski (1993) characterizes a setting in which a researcher tries to predict whether the behavior of an individual within a group is affected by the average behavior in the group. According to Manski (1993), identification is impossible in the context of local 15 Under g + , the first agent to engage in activity i for i = 1, 2 is the agent identified by θ i = 0. Hence, the activity with fewer agents is comprised entirely of multi-activity users, i.e., n * M (g + ) = min{n * 1 , n * 2 }. ...
... The reflection problem described by Manski (1993) characterizes a setting in which a researcher tries to predict whether the behavior of an individual within a group is affected by the average behavior in the group. According to Manski (1993), identification is impossible in the context of local 15 Under g + , the first agent to engage in activity i for i = 1, 2 is the agent identified by θ i = 0. Hence, the activity with fewer agents is comprised entirely of multi-activity users, i.e., n * M (g + ) = min{n * 1 , n * 2 }. Under g − , the first agent to engage in activity 1, respectively activity 2, is the agent identified by θ 1 = 0, respectively θ 1 = 1. ...
... 6 First, avoiding using the linear-in-means model can be a solution. Manski (2000) argues one can use the median or the subjective data of the group attributes rather than the mean value to serve as the major explanatory variable of interest. For example, using the unique data from the National Longitudinal Survey Youth (NLSY) 97, Kawaguchi (2004) uses teenagers' subjective perceptions of peer behaviours to identify peer effects in American youth substance use. ...
... For example, using the unique data from the National Longitudinal Survey Youth (NLSY) 97, Kawaguchi (2004) uses teenagers' subjective perceptions of peer behaviours to identify peer effects in American youth substance use. Second, introducing nonlinearity into a linear-in-means model would help identification (Manski 2000). Furthermore, Brock and Durlauf (2001) proved that the reflection problem can be avoided in the non-linearity model. ...
This chapter returns to the hotly debated concept of social capital. Scholars have mostly emphasized its structuralism as the attribute of embedded resources, neglecting its constructivism, which inevitably led to a missing link in dialectically understanding social capital as a practical concept. This chapter uses the specific case of interactions between General Gengyao Nian (Nian) and Emperor Yongzheng (Yong) in the Qing Dynasty of China to further explain the concept. Moreover, Pierre Bourdieu’s important terms “habitus” and “field” are introduced to address the paradoxes splitting the historical reality and theoretic expatiation. Primitive explanatory models are proposed to probe the genesis, attributes, and measurement of social capital.
... How this is done in the literature, and what are the shortcomings. The main challenge of the literature measuring peer effects lies in the problem of selection bias (Manski (1993), Brock and Durlauf (2001), Angrist (2014), Bramoulle et al. (2020)). The problem stems from the labor market sorting 1 , where productive workers could self-select into 1 There are numerous empirical studies have documented evidences for strong and positive assortative matching (PAM) between unobserved worker and firm attributes: Andrews et al. (2012), Hagedorn et al. 1 productive firms with productive coworkers and simultaneously earn high wages. ...
... The vision is that there could be a large number of types of workers and coworkers (K 1) to capture the rich dynamics and unrestricted complementarities in wages sufficiently precisely. For any cohort (Manski (1993)). For any x n , I use the histogram h(x n ) ∈ [0, 1] K to describe the productivity type distribution in the cohort. ...
Observed worker and firm characteristics only explain a small wage variation. Beyond characteristics that are directly observed from the data, my thesis develops new empirical methods aimed at identifying unobserved heterogeneity in the labor market. Chapter 1 proposes an empirical method to measure the effects of coworkers on wages. I take advantage of the recent cutting-edge clustering method that combines machine-learning and economic theory to identify groups of workers with similar latent productivity type. I further apply the cluster-based method to identify the effects of coworkers on wages and evaluate their economic implications in empirical-relevant simulations. The proposed method has proven potential to be applied to the real-world data to improve our ability to understand the role of coworkers in substantive questions where existing methods have limitations.
... These new theoretical frameworks of "social interaction" and "interacting agents" explain how individuals belonging to the same group have the same behavior. According to Manski (1993), Anselin and Bera (1998), Le Gallo (2002) and Anselin (2001Anselin ( , 2002, these effects receive different designations in various subfields, such as social norms, neighborhood effects, social interactions, peer group effects, strategic interaction, copycatting, conformity, contagion, yardstick competition, to name a few. ...
... The opposite approach is to begin with a more general model containing all the type of interactions, this approach is known as "the general-to-specific approach". Manski (1993) distinguishes three types of spatial interactions that may explain why an observation in a specific location may be influenced by observations at other locations: endogenous interaction effects, exogenous interaction effects and correlated effects ( Fig. 1). ...
Spatial econometrics is a subset of econometric methods evolved from the need to account for the location and spatial interaction. This means that what happens in one economic unit of analysis is not independent of what happens in neighboring economic units. Spatial econometric methods have been advanced quickly and many studies show the usefulness of these techniques in various fields. However, they have not yet received sufficient attention in empirical finance. So, this article asks the question: what should a financier who wishes to use regression models involving spatial data know about spatial econometric methods? More precisely, this paper has two goals. In the one hand, it attempts to present a review of the peculiarities of spatial econometrics, and, in the other hand, it discusses the application of spatial econometrics in the field of finance. It summarizes some of the different spatial econometrics models that have been used in finance, and describes different kind of economic and financial distance.
... What makes analyses of social influence in observational data particularly challenging is the difficulty of distinguishing genuine social influence effects from other forms of correlated behavior (Aral et al., 2009;Manski, 1993;Ogburn, 2018;Shalizi & Thomas, 2011;Vander-Weele & An, 2013). When we observe a group of individuals acting in a similar manner, social influence may be the explanation for this correlated behavior, but individuals can also behave in similar ways without this having anything to do with social influence. ...
The digital and computational revolutions have improved the prospects for analyzing the dynamics of large groups of interacting individuals. Digital trace data provide the type of large-scale, time-stamped, and granular information on social interactions that is needed to feasibly conduct research on social influence in non-experimental settings and to distinguish social influence effects from the confounding effects of homophily. This chapter reviews three concrete ways in which machine learning can improve the estimation of social influence effects from observational digital trace data. These computational approaches (a) make high-dimensional information about individuals accessible for analysis, (b) infer latent confounders from the structure of large-scale social networks, and (c) facilitate large-scale annotation of measures that can serve as instruments for causal identification.
... В работ е (Manski, 1993) описано три вида пространственных взаимодействий: ...
В статье анализируются детерминанты спроса на недвижимость, сдающуюся в краткосрочную аренду на онлайн-платформе Airbnb в Москве. В ходе исследования использовалась кросс-секционная выборка объявлений, которые были активны с марта 2021 г. по февраль 2022 г. Были оценены пространственные модели, позволяющие учесть пространственную автокорреляцию. Было установлено, что пространственная модель Дарбина наилучшим образом описывает имеющиеся данные. Для корректной интерпретации результатов были рассчитаны прямые, косвенные и общие эффекты. По результатам исследования была определена как эластичность спроса на арендное жилье по собственной цене, составившая –0,68, так и эластичность по цене конкурентов, равная 0,42. Помимо этого, в статье были определены основные характеристики квартир, влияющие на спрос. Положительное влияние на спрос имеют характеристики, связанные с площадью жилья (максимальная вместимость и число ванных комнат), наличием различных удобств в квартире и сопутствующих показателей (платная парковка, самостоятельное заселение, число фотографий и мгновенное бронирование) и положительными характеристиками арендодателя (статус «суперхозяин», уровень отклика). Отрицательно влияет на спрос — п омимо стоимости аренды — у величение расстояния до центра города и минимальный срок аренды. Полученные в исследовании результаты были проверены на устойчивость, для чего использовались различные матрицы пространственных весов и альтернативные переменные в качестве меры цены аренды.
The article analyzes demand determinants for short-term rental housing on the online platform Airbnb in Moscow. The study used a cross-sectional sample of listings that were active between March 2021 and February 2022. Spatial models were estimated to account for spatial autocorrelation. Spatial Durbin model was found to be the best for the available data. Direct, indirect and general effects were calculated for a correct interpretation of the results. Based on the results of the study, both the own price elasticity of demand (−0.68) and the cross-price elasticity (0.42) were determined. In addition, the article identified the main characteristics of apartments that affect demand. Characteristics related to the area of housing (maximum capacity and number of bathrooms), the availability of various amenities in the apartment and related indicators (paid parking, self-check-in, number of photos and instant booking, superhost status, response rate) have positive demand influence. The distance to the city center and the minimum rental period negatively affect demand. The results of the study were tested for robustness using various spatial weight matrices and alternative variables as rental price.
... From personal conflict to low morale to lack of motivation, poor communication will often ensue. Furthermore, [10] agreed that peer effects in schools have figured importantly in recent research on school production and in educational policy debates. The existence and structure of peer effects may have important implications for policies regarding ability tracking, classroom organization, and school choice, to name just a few. ...
The study focused on teaching language and performances among learners in rural schools in Mabaale Sub County, Kagadi district. The study was carried in four schools namely: Kamuyange, Kamurandu, Muntuguru and Nyakarongo primary schools. In the view of the study, it was revealed from the findings that the sampled schools experienced poor performances in English language. There are poor communication, school dropout, poor class attendance, family background, poor teaching methods, nick naming teachers, lack of scholastic materials, late coming, poor cooperation and collaboration among learners. The findings of the study showed that the effect of English language on academic performance in Mabaale Sub County include; failure to interpret questions, poor expression using the language, lack of confidence by learners, grammatical errors in answering questions and spelling problems by both the learners and teachers. In order to have improved performance in primary schools in English, the teachers should always make sure that the right instructional materials and methods of teaching should be used depending on the content/work to be covered, providing refresher courses for teachers targeted at methodology, the pupils should be provided with language hobbies and other leisure activities. INTRODUCTION The term English is often in its most sense referred to the language of England and of southern Scotland from a historical view point. It is commonly known that during the 5 th century AD, the entomic tribes invaded Britain whose tribes comprised the Jutes, Anglos and the Saxons. Later, Anglo-saxon civilization came into existence from the word Anglos, two other words, English and English were derived. This English originally meant the language of the Anglos and their kindred tribe [1]. English language and academic performance in rural schools in Mabaale sub County Kagadi district. The important aspects that were considered are academic performance of learners and teaching English language. Aiken [2] observed that some people attribute their failures to bad luck, difficult task and other extenuating factors while others attribute their success to their own efforts, abilities and other dispositions. [3] says that, it is essential subjects that should be taught/learnt in practical sense by teaching real figures from
... From personal conflict to low morale to lack of motivation, poor communication will often ensue. Furthermore, [10] agreed that peer effects in schools have figured importantly in recent research on school production and in educational policy debates. The existence and structure of peer effects may have important implications for policies regarding ability tracking, classroom organization, and school choice, to name just a few. ...
... where f is measurable function such that a unique solution exists almost surely. This model is a nonparametric generalization of spatial autoregressive models for networks studied in, for example, [25]. When Y i is included in the model, the value of Y i is determined endogenously. ...
We study the properties of conformal prediction for network data under various sampling mechanisms that commonly arise in practice but often result in a non-representative sample of nodes. We interpret these sampling mechanisms as selection rules applied to a superpopulation and study the validity of conformal prediction conditional on an appropriate selection event. We show that the sampled subarray is exchangeable conditional on the selection event if the selection rule satisfies a permutation invariance property and a joint exchangeability condition holds for the superpopulation. Our result implies the finite-sample validity of conformal prediction for certain selection events related to ego networks and snowball sampling. We also show that when data are sampled via a random walk on a graph, a variant of weighted conformal prediction yields asymptotically valid prediction sets for an independently selected node from the population.
... Here in the first place we propose this more generic generalized spatial correlation equation which includes various special cases. An ideal simple model should accommodate all economic assumptions that need to be taken into consideration (Manski, 1993). ...
... Using our semiparametric methodology, we find that exporters enjoy a statistically significant pro-3 While our approach is related to that by whose recent work also concerns an internally consistent measurement of cross-firm productivity spillovers, it is distinct in that we focus on the identification of "contextual" spillover effects-in the Manski (1993) nomenclature-of peers' activities (namely, exporting) on productivity whereas they consider the measurement of "endogenous" effects of peers' productivity. The type of spillovers that we study here is more predominant in the literature, particularly in the context of exporting. ...
Existing literature at the nexus of firm productivity and export behavior mostly focuses on "learning by exporting," whereby firms can improve their performance by engaging in exports. Whereas, the secondary channel of learning via cross-firm spillovers from exporting peers, or "learning from exporters," has largely been neglected. Omitting this important mechanism, which can benefit both exporters and non-exporters, may provide an incomplete assessment of the total productivity benefits of exporting. In this paper, we develop a unified empirical framework for productivity measurement that explicitly accommodates both channels. To do this, we formalize the evolution of firm productivity as an export-controlled process, allowing future productivity to be affected by both the firm's own export behavior as well as export behavior of spatially proximate, same-industry peers. This facilitates a simultaneous, "internally consistent" identification of firm productivity and the corresponding effects of exporting. We apply our methodology to a panel of manufacturing plants in Chile in 1995-2007 and find significant evidence in support of both direct and spillover effects of exporting that substantially boost the productivity of domestic firms.
... The third challenge is about the reflection problem (Manski 1993) or the simultaneity issue (Moffit 2001) arising when one wishes to examine whether the average behaviour in a given group has any impact on the behaviour of the individuals belonging to that group. Basically, two issues have to be solved. ...
The thesis aims at clarifying the relationship between innovation, location and employment growth. A first part provides a general overview of the literature and introduces our four following essays. A second part examine the link between innovation activity and firms’ location, while a third one focus on employment growth by area without however taking into account innovation activity. A fourth part combines the main three elements, i.e. innovation, firms’ location and employment growth. A final chapter summarizes the main contributions of the thesis and extend it by examining the specific role played by employers not covered by the Community Innovation Survey and the potential skills complementarity between workers operating in neighbouring areas.
... The identification of the causal spillover in the peer-effects literature is discussed inManski (1993), who distinguishes between the correlated effect, the contextual effect and the endogenous effect. The endogenous effect is the most important and policy relevant. ...
... The problems of identifying observational learning from the actions of peers are well recognized (Manski, 1993;Angrist, 2014). Our approach avoids the typical problems associated with "outcome-on-outcome" peer effects by relating our main dependent variable IEER, which is a transformation of the standard deviation of an analyst's forecast error, to the covariance of the forecast noises of co-analysts who have generated forecasts for the same firm in the same year. ...
... The methods applied to network analysis in econometrics are more structural and parametric [see Manski (1993) for the reflection problem, Blume et al. (2011), de Paula (2017) for a survey and the references therein]. The models often represent an equilibrium, such as: ...
This paper considers nonlinear dynamic models where the main parameter of interest is a nonnegative matrix characterizing the network (contagion) effects. This network matrix is usually constrained either by assuming a limited number of nonzero elements (sparsity), or by considering a reduced rank approach for nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF). We follow the latter approach and develop a new probabilistic NMF method. We introduce a new Identifying Maximum Likelihood (IML) method for consistent estimation of the identified set of admissible NMF's and derive its asymptotic distribution. Moreover, we propose a maximum likelihood estimator of the parameter matrix for a given non-negative rank, derive its asymptotic distribution and the associated efficiency bound.
... Finally, results we obtain under linearity contribute to the literature on linear models of peer effects. These usually specify that outcomes are linear in exogenous and endogenous variables and that the coefficients are known to the researcher up to scale (Manski, 1993;Lee, 2007;Goldsmith-Pinkham and Imbens, 2013;Bramoullé et al., 2014). Others use exposure mappings which rule out any treatment effects by faraway units (Jagadeesan et al., 2020;Sussman and Airoldi, 2017). ...
We study the problem of estimating the average causal effect of treating every member of a population, as opposed to none, using an experiment that treats only some. This is the policy-relevant estimand when (for example) deciding whether to scale up an intervention based on the results of an RCT. But it differs from the usual average treatment effect in the presence of spillovers. We study both estimation and experimental design given a bound (parametrized by $\eta$) on the rate of decay of spillovers between units that are "distant" in a general sense, encompassing (for example) spatial settings, panel data, and some directed networks. We show that over all estimators linear in the outcomes and all cluster-randomized designs the optimal rate of convergence to the average global effect is $n^{-\frac{1}{2+\frac{1}{\eta}}}$, and provide a generalized "Scaling Clusters" design under which this rate can be achieved. Both of these results are unchanged under the additional assumption (common in applied work) that potential outcomes are linear in population treatment assignments and the estimator is OLS. We also provide methods to improve finite-sample performance, including a shrinkage estimator that takes advantage of additional information about the structure of the spillovers when linearity holds, and an optimized weighting approach when it does not.
... Before we attribute this pattern to differential adherence across peer groups, we must rule out a version of the "reflection problem" (Manski, 1993), which recognizes that the responses of individuals and co-partisan majorities would be correlated even in the absence of information. We show, however, that adherence is greater than what we should expect on the basis of reflection alone. ...
American politics is currently characterized by polarized beliefs about otherwise verifiable realities, a pathology often ascribed to the influence of “echo chambers” on like-minded partisans. Partisans will seek out the views of like-minded individuals for either instrumental reasons, that is, because co-partisans are presumed to know more, or for expressive reasons, to learn or confirm “partisan congenial” beliefs. We conducted an online experiment to characterize the demand for, and use of, social information about political beliefs. There is mistrust across partisan lines but also a willingness to consult social information in pursuit of “correct beliefs.” The further observation that those who do consult peers are not correct more often underscores the importance of reliable private information as a bulwark against some of the pernicious effects of echo chambers.
... It is augmented with controls for measures of teaching practice and teaching practice interacted with peers. This model is understood to capture the reduced-form effect of peers, inclusive of both endogenous (effects arising through simultaneity in achievement) and contextual effects (arising through direct spillovers from peer prior achievement), as in the terminology set forth by Manski (1993). We begin here as it is the most straightforward model to connect with the literature, but we illustrate other models in Appendix C, where peer behavior affects achievement directly, leading to an additional indirect teacher effect, as captured in Duflo et al. (2011) and Jackson (2016). ...
... This study investigates the causal effects of migrant peers (measured as the proportion of migrant students) on the academic achievements of local and migrant students. However, identifying migrant peer effects has several challenges, including selection, correlation, distinguishing between endogenous and contextual effects, and the reflection problem (Manski 1993;Mora and Oreopoulos 2011). ...
... Research has shown that individuals who are always in the company of those who drink are most likely to start drinking (Reifman, Barnes, Dintcheff, Farell & Uhteg, 1998). This assertion is supported by Manski (1993) who said that individuals involved in excessive alcohol intake are likely to have friends who drink alcohol as well. Bosari and Carey (2001) opine that there are three basic determinants of peer influence on student drinking: "overt offers of alcohol, modelling and social norms". ...
In spite of several alcohol-related harms, consumption pattern towards alcohol addiction in Nigeria is on the increase. This study attempts to identify the determinants of addictive alcohol consumption among consumers in Nigeria. Using a causal research design, 250 alcohol consumers were purposively sampled. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and analysed using the multiple regression analysis in SPSSWIN version 22. The findings revealthat there is a combined effect of the latent variables- peer group, price, socio-cultural environment and government intervention on consumers’ alcohol addiction (R=0.673, R2=0.452 and p= 0.008). In conclusion, peer group influence, price of alcoholic beverages, socio-cultural environment and level of government involvement in alcohol regulation have a direct and significant influence on alcohol addiction. Theoretical and policy recommendations were made; as well as practical implications.
... Some of the concerns about this type of contagion effects are the reflection problem (Manski, 1993) and correlated shocks. First, a shock to fund A can affect fund B, while a shock to fund B can affect fund A through the underlying network. ...
In the first chapter, I study the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market from two perspectives. First, I study its contagion, and I show that the network of the ETF market — the linkages between ETFs based on portfolio weights — catalyzes the propagation of price dislocations, the gaps between prices and their fundamental values. Arbitrage trading induces price dislocations in connected ETFs, followed by responses in returns and subsequent reversals with a sizable effect of 4-6% per year. The findings suggest that arbitragers create externalities from trading. Finally, the ETF market works as a stabilizer for price dislocations, but induced returns can incur unexpected fluctuations. Another is information embedded in ETFs. By extracting information in ETFs, I uncover the risk neutral covariance of global asset returns and currency returns to understand risk premium and exchange rate risk in the global financial market better. The measure captures some economic policy uncertainty in real time. The second chapter studies the futures markets. The literature has documented that the inflow of institutional money into the commodity market led to so-called financialization of commodities and hence the higher correlation between equity and commodity. However, the correlation is highly timevarying, and it had decreased once before it has faced another surge. I find this time-varying correlations between equity and commodity as well as between commodity and bond are driven by the net trading positions for corresponding pair of asset classes. Exploiting this, I construct the measure that signals mispricing of large investors, and I find cross-sectional predictability for future returns with this measure. I also investigate the role of the limit to arbitrage in the currency market in a relation to return spillovers from the commodity market empirically and theoretically. In the third chapter (co-authored with Raphael Auer, Andreas Schrimpf, and Alexander Wagner), we study how the international trade network can affect financial markets. In contrast to the earlier literature, our measure shows the trade flows in global value chains affect equity market comovements strongly. One standard deviation increase in our trade intensity measure leads to roughly 0.05 to 0.1 increase in correlations. Our results hold after controlling for financial integration and other factors that could affect the international asset market comovements.
... First, they only contain one spatial interaction effect. Manski (1993) proposed three types of spatial interaction effects describing how an observation at a location is associated with observations at other locations: i) endogenous interaction effects, which suggests that the observation at a region might be related to the observations of neighbouring regions; ii) exogenous interaction effects, which indicates that the observation at a region might be associated with independent explanatory variables of the observations in neighbouring regions; and iii) correlated effects, which represents that similar unobserved variables may lead to similar observations across regions. Among these three interaction effects, SAM and SEM only consider endogenous interaction effects and correlated effects, respectively. ...
Immigrants may be more vulnerable to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) than other sub-population groups due to their relatively low socioeconomic status. However, no quantitative studies have examined the relationships between immigrants and COVID-19 health outcomes (confirmed cases and related deaths). We first examined the relationship between total immigrants and COVID-19 health outcomes with spatial Durbin models after controlling for demographic, biophysical and socioeconomic variables. We then repeated the same analysis within multiple subimmigrant groups divided by those with original nativity to examine the differential associations with health outcomes. The result showed that the proportion of all immigrants is negatively associated with the number of confirmed cases and related deaths. At the continent and sub-continent level, we consistently found negative relationships between the number of confirmed cases and the proportion of all sub-immigrant groups. However, we observed mixed associations between the proportion of sub-immigrant groups and the number of deaths. Those counties having a higher prevalence of immigrants from Africa [Eastern Africa: –18.6, 95% confidence interval (CI): –38.3~–2.9; Northern Africa: –146.5, 95% CI: –285.5~–20.1; Middle Africa: –622.6, 95% CI: –801.4~– 464.5] and the Americas (Northern America: –90.5, 95% CI: – 106.1~–73.8; Latin America: –6.8, 95% CI: –8.1~–5.2) mostly had a lower number of deaths, whereas those counties having a higher prevalence of immigrants from Asia (Eastern Asia: 21.0, 95% CI: 7.7~36.2; Western Asia: 42.5, 95% CI: 16.9~68.8; South- Central Asia: 26.6, 95% CI: 15.5~36.9) showed a higher number of deaths. Our results partially support that some immigrants, especially those from Asia, are more vulnerable to COVID-19 than other sub-population groups.
We develop a novel methodology for the proxy variable identification of firm productivity in the presence of productivity-modifying learning and spillovers which facilitates a unified "internally consistent" analysis of the spillover effects between firms. Contrary to the popular two-step empirical approach, ours does not postulate contradictory assumptions about firm productivity across the estimation steps. Instead, we explicitly accommodate cross-sectional dependence in productivity induced by spillovers which facilitates identification of both the productivity and spillover effects therein simultaneously. We apply our model to study cross-firm spillovers in China's electric machinery manufacturing, with a particular focus on productivity effects of inbound FDI.
E-commerce provides opportunities to extend the market and plays a vital role in modern economy. However, its implementation often requires high-level technical infrastructure. This study regards both e-commerce and R&D as input factors and analyses their impact on firm output in the manufacturing sector of China. We find that e-commerce capital stocks and R&D capital stocks have a significant positive effect on the output growth, with R&D being more influential than e-commerce. Meanwhile, the inter-industry network externalities of e-commerce capital stocks have a significant positive impact on production growth. Still, the intra-industry network externalities of e-commerce capital stocks are significantly negative, which means online purchase and sales through e-commerce may induce product imitation (i.e., business stealing) and, thus, reduce output for certain companies in the industry. These findings suggest that R&D and favourable external innovation environment are the key factors for enhancing enterprise production levels.
Evidence in studies from different fields point to the harmfulness of being bullied on indicators of success in an individual's life. Aiming to measure and understand the impact of this inherently social event, this paper investigates how the friendships of lower secondary education students in the city of Recife influence their likelihood of being victims of such a phenomenon and its effect on the academic performance of these students. The two-stage least squares method is applied to an IV-SLX model, using indirect friendship ties as an instrument, and significant results are found at 95% confidence: increasing the chances of being victimized by bullying by 10%, on average, reduces the Portuguese language score by 2.33% and the math score by 2.75%.
With the globalisation of the economy and the increasing interconnectedness of individuals in the financial markets, companies implementing high energy consumption strategies have become more widespread due to the “herding effect” as they become more closely linked for development. In the context of carbon neutrality, the issue of how to reduce the spread of high energy consumption strategies and the issue surrounding the governance of corporate emissions have become a focus of research. This paper uses the improved SEIJRS infectious disease model to investigate the phenomenon of corporate high energy strategy infection, combined with optimal control theory, to provide a reference for governments and regulators to develop reasonable optimal prevention and control strategies.
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