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Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates

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Richard S.J. Tol at University of Sussex
Richard S.J. Tol
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Abstract

A selection of the potential impacts of climate change – on agriculture,forestry, unmanaged ecosystems, sea level rise, human mortality, energyconsumption, and water resources – are estimated and valued in monetaryterms. Estimates are derived from globally comprehensive, internallyconsistent studies using GCM based scenarios. An underestimate of theuncertainty is given. New impact studies can be included following themeta-analytical methods described here. A 1 °C increase in the globalmean surface air temperature would have, on balance, a positive effect onthe OECD, China, and the Middle East, and a negative effect on othercountries. Confidence intervals of regionally aggregated impacts, however,include both positive and negative impacts for all regions. Global estimatesdepend on the aggregation rule. Using a simple sum, world impact of a1 °C warming would be a positive 2% of GDP, with a standarddeviation of 1%. Using globally averaged values, world impact would be anegative 3% (standard deviation: 1%). Using equity weighting, worldimpact would amount to 0% (standard deviation: 1%). Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002
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Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates
Richard S.J. Tol
Environmental and Resource Economics; Jan 2002; 21, 1; ABI/INFORM Global
pg. 47
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