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Mondiale ecosystemen staan zwaar onder druk. Het beschermen van waardevolle natuurgebieden is niet voldoende om de afname van de biodiversiteit te verminderen, maar blijft wel noodzakelijk. Om het tempo van het biodiversiteitverlies fors af te remmen, zijn structurele veranderingen in consumptie en productie nodig. Er valt veel winst te behalen bij vermindering van de vleesconsumptie. Daarnaast zijn vooral in de land- en bosbouw, visserij en energievoorziening veranderingen nodig. Het Planbureau identificeert nieuwe strategieën voor VN-top in Nagoya
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... More intensive land use systems have a stronger effect than more extensive systems. In a scenario study ten Brink et al. (2010) indicated that the option of closing the yield gap, i.e. reduce the difference between current and potential yields, could reduce loss of original biodiversity by 2050 by 20% compared to the baseline scenario. Hence, to assess the impact of Dutch imports of palm oil, soya and wood from the selected countries on biodiversity it is necessary to relate the quantities exported to the Dutch market to the area needed to produce the commodity under different production methods and combine this with the biodiversity impact of the various production systems. ...
... Higher harvest intensities will result in forest degradation and lower (quality) yields at the following harvests. Ten Brink et al. (2010) explored the possibility to intensify wood production by establishing more forest plantations. The results indicate that this may reduce the pressure on natural forests in the long term, but will lead to higher levels of biodiversity in the short term. ...
... Well managed forest plantations, however, also can reduce pressure on remaining forest areas for wood production. Global scenarios in which the share of wood produced from plantations is increased show a reduction in impact of forestry on biodiversity (ten Brink et al., 2010). This is because on the long term less primary forest area is needed to meet global wood demand. ...
Nederland is een grote importeur van soja, palmolie en tropische houtproducten. Voor de import van soja uit Brazilië, palmolie uit Indonesië en Maleisië en hout uit Indonesië is in deze landen ruwweg dezelfde landoppervlakte nodige als de totale oppervlakte aan landbouwgrond in Nederland. Op die manier draagt Nederland bij aan het verlies van biodiversiteit in deze landen. Door duurzame intensivering van de productie, uitbreiding van de productie in gedegradeerde gebieden en geïntegreerde landinrichting in de exportlanden et stimuleren, kan de Nederlandse overheid de ecologische en socio-economische impact van de Nederlandse import reduceren
... The approach used in this study combines various data sources and model outputs as shown inFigure 2. There are three types of data that constitute the pillars of our method. The first pillar is the output of the " Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment—Global Biodiversity " (IMAGE-GLOBIO) integrated assessment model [31,32] which predicts loss of area for a suite of habitat types including wetlands (component A inFigure 2). A data set developed from primary valuation studies constitutes the second pillar (component B inFigure 2). ...
... The third pillar is provided by spatial ecological and socio-economic variables that are used in a statistical meta-analysis of the valuation literature to give a function that relates wetland value to various explanatory variables (component C inFigure 2). To define a baseline scenario for freshwater and coastal wetland change as well as mangrove change for the period 2000–2050 and 2010–2050, respectively, this report makes use of the results of the IMAGE-GLOBIO integrated assessment model [31,32]. IMAGE-GLOBIO is a modeling framework developed to calculate the impact of five environmental drivers on terrestrial biodiversity. ...
Many countries in West Asia, defined in this study as the Arabic-speaking countries of the Arabian Peninsula plus Turkey and Iran, have enacted environmental conservation laws but regional underlying drivers of environment change, such as rising incomes and fast-growing populations, continue to put pressure on remaining wetlands. This paper aims to inform conservation efforts by presenting the first regional assessment of the economic value of coastal and freshwater wetlands in West Asia. Using scenario analysis we find that, dependent on the discount rate used, the present value of the regional economic loss of not protecting wetlands by 2050 is between US dollar 2.3 billion and US dollar 7.2 billion (expressed in 2007 US dollars). The method used for this assessment, however, is not suitable for expressing national realities adequately. We therefore suggest that detailed localized studies are conducted to improve insight into the drivers and the social and economic effects of wetland loss in West Asia.
... The concept of nutrient trading credits could maybe be a worthwhile avenue to consider (Chopin, 2012). Indeed, the role of ecosystem services within the IMTA approach is being increasingly recognized and their values estimated (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005;TEEB, 2010;Chopin, 2018b). Although it is difficult to estimate the economic value (for society) of the degradation of the environment, there is clearly a benefit in mitigation of eutrophication, via IMTA extractive species, as well as improving resource utilization. ...
By moving away from coastal waters and hence reducing pressure on nearshore ecosystems, offshore aquaculture can be seen as a possible step towards the large-scale expansion of marine food production. Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA) in nearshore water bodies has received increasing attention and could therefore play a role in the transfer of aquaculture operations to offshore areas. IMTA holds scope for multi-use of offshore areas and can bring environmental benefits from making use of waste products and transforming these into valuable co-products. Furthermore, they may act as alternative marine production systems and provide scope for alternative income options for coastal communities, e.g., by acting as nodes for farm operation and maintenance requirements. This paper summarizes the current state of knowledge on the implications of the exposed nature of offshore and open ocean sites on the biological, technological and socio-economic performance of IMTA. Of particular interest is improving knowledge about resource flows between integrated species in hydrodynamic challenging conditions that characterize offshore waters.
... The Rethinking global biodiversity strategies (ten Brink et al., 2010) study, was carried out within the context of the TEEB programme and explores alternative global strategies aimed at halting loss of biodiversity. Included strategies were aimed at reducing the need for agricultural expansion to feed the strongly increasing human population (e.g. ...
Land is serving as a basis for the production of food, feed, fibres, wood, bio-energy, for biodiversity, recreation and many other goods and services ecosystems provide. Additional to that, land can also be used for infrastructure, houses etc., making no direct use of natural resources, but of the physical land structure. While some resources and ecosystem services can be delivered simultaneously, others are mutually exclusive, and therefore tend to compete for land.
Competing claims is a notion that different and/or excessive claims are made on land that may jeopardize its sustained use. Increasing demand for food and energy in the world leads to further intensified use of agricultural land or to the transformation of non-agricultural land into productive agricultural land, with negative consequences for the environment and biodiversity. The objective for this report was to review global and regional market and policy trends governing land use change and competing claims and to explore the role of local power relations and perceptions of stakeholders for competing claims.
... The loss of biodiversity and higher development levels seem to go hand in hand but the relationship between poverty and biodiversity is still difficult to interpret adequately (Tekelenburg et al., 2009). Higher levels of development usually have as a consequence higher biodiversity loss; for example, because of expansion of agricultural land and better infrastructure, although these consequences may be limited (Ten Brink et al., 2010). For sub-Saharan Africa, half of the additional loss in the period up to 2030, compared to 2000 levels, may be attributed to agriculture (through crops and pasture). ...
Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to describe relationships between plausible trajectories of drivers, possible policy interventions, and impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Model inter-comparisons are key in quantifying uncertainties and identifying avenues for model improvement but have been missing among the global biodiversity and ecosystem services modelling communities. The biodiversity and ecosystem services scenario-based inter-model comparison (BES-SIM) aims to fill this gap. We used global land-use and climate projections to simulate possible future impacts on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services using a variety of models and a range of harmonized metrics.
The goal of this paper is to reflect on the steps taken in BES-SIM, identify remaining methodological challenges, and suggest pathways for improvement. We identified five major groups of challenges; the need to: 1) better account for the role of nature in future human development storylines; 2) improve the representation of drivers in the scenarios by increasing the resolution (temporal, spatial and thematic) of land-use as key driver of biodiversity change and including additional relevant drivers; 3) explicitly integrate species- and trait-level biodiversity in ecosystem services models; 4) expand the coverage of the multiple dimensions of biodiversity and ecosystem services; and finally, 5) incorporate time-series or one-off historical data in the calibration and validation of biodiversity and ecosystem services models.
Addressing these challenges would allow the development of more integrated global projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services, thereby improving their policy relevance in supporting the interlinked international conservation and sustainable development agendas.
We carried out a systematic review of global and regional modelling studies in which shifts in species distributions under climate change were modelled. These studies included a large range of species groups and biomes worldwide. Based on the model results we calculated the fraction of species that would remain at a locality in response to projected climate change and related this to the global mean temperature increase (GMTI) that was associated with projected climate change. Out of 207 articles meeting our search terms used in Web of Science, 21 studies met our selection criteria and were included. This resulted in 239 data points of combinations of global mean temperature increase and effect on local species richness across different species groups and biomes. Based on this we carried out a meta-analysis to investi¬gate the relation between changes in global mean tem-perature increase and the fraction of remaining plant and vertebrate species at a geographic location. The results showed that global mean temperature increases of more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels significantly affect local species richness. Both plants and vertebrate species showed a strong decline in the fraction remaining species with increasing temperature. The effect impacts seemed to be strongest in warm biomes and tended to be smaller in cool biomes. The resulting meta-model can be used to calculate the fraction of remaining species under different climate change scenarios.
Most global strategies for future food security focus on sustainable intensification of production of food and involve increased use of nitrogen fertilizer and manure. The external costs of current high nitrogen (N) losses from agriculture in the European Union, are 0.3–1.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008. We explore the potential of sustainable extensification for agriculture in the EU and The Netherlands by analysing cases and scenario studies focusing on reducing N inputs and livestock densities. Benefits of extensification are higher local biodiversity and less environmental pollution and therefore less external costs for society. Extensification also has risks such as a reduction of yields and therewith a decrease of the GDP and farm income and a smaller contribution to the global food production, and potentially an i0ncrease of global demand for land. We demonstrate favourable examples of extensification. Reducing the N fertilization rate for winter wheat in Northwest Europe to 25–30% below current N recommendations accounts for the external N cost, but requires action to compensate for a reduction in crop yield by 10–20%. Dutch dairy and pig farmers changing to less intensive production maintain or even improve farm income by price premiums on their products, and/or by savings on external inputs. A scenario reducing the Dutch pig and poultry sector by 50%, the dairy sector by 20% and synthetic N fertilizer use by 40% lowers annual N pollution costs by 0.2–2.2 billion euro (40%). This benefit compensates for the loss of GDP in the primary sector but not in the supply and processing chain. A 2030 scenario for the EU27 reducing consumption and production of animal products by 50% (demitarean diet) reduces N pollution by 10% and benefits human health. This diet allows the EU27 to become a food exporter, while reducing land demand outside Europe in 2030 by more than 100 million hectares (2%), which more than compensates increased land demand when changing to organic farming. We conclude that in Europe extensification of agriculture is sustainable when combined with adjusted diets and externalization of environmental costs to food prices.
Assessing the range of ecological and socioeconomic threats afflicting the planet, the causal chain eventually leads back to various underlying configurations of unsustainable production and consumption practices, policies and systems. Awareness of these drivers and the need to address them has evolved over the past four decades, resulting in the 2002 declaration at the World Summit on Sustainable Development that changing unsustainable production and consumption is one of the " overarching objectives " of and essential to sustainable development. However, the message and values of sustainable production and consumption tends to clash with those of mainstream consumer culture and the global advertising industry, as well as political ideologies promoting unlimited economic growth. This paper examines some of the challenges facing organizations involved in communicating the concepts and values of sustainable production and consumption among different audiences and stakeholder groups, with attention to different strategies addressing these challenges.
AimsTo use open access models of predicted seabird distribution data in the Arctic to create rapid assessment biodiversity maps for management purposes and for prioritization of conservation. LocationHigh Arctic, North of 60° latitude. Methods
The predicted distributions of 27 species of Arctic seabirds were combined to create a seabird biodiversity map. The GIS layers created were based on peer-reviewed model outputs which were calculated using the random forest algorithm and supplemented with ISO standardized metadata for quality assurance. We have overlain the species diversity and occurrence maps with known shipping lanes and areas of human activities in the Arctic to highlight areas of potential human conflict with pelagic seabirds. ResultsEntry points to the Arctic Basin for example Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, Chukchi Sea, Greenland Sea and Norwegian Sea are specific conflict zones with mean number of species occurring within 20 km of shipping zones ranging from 17 to 19 (63–70% of modelled species). We also show that these are areas of the highest intensity of human activities in the Arctic (fishing, ship traffic and accident rates). Main conclusionThese Arctic seabird biodiversity maps can be used to make decisions which take into account ecology and socio-economy (e.g. Marxan analysis and marine protected areas MPAs) and for ecological/economic studies which can help to create a pro-active management scheme. This is particularly important due to the future increase in human impacts in the Arctic (i.e. fishing, tourism and especially shipping). By improving upon these models and further examination into the interactions between seabirds and humans in the Arctic, we can guide important policy decisions to protect Arctic biodiversity.
Ongoing declines in production of the world's fisheries may have serious ecological and socioeconomic consequences. As a result, a number of international efforts have sought to improve management and prevent overexploitation, while helping to maintain biodiversity and a sustainable food supply. Although these initiatives have received broad acceptance, the extent to which corrective measures have been implemented and are effective remains largely unknown. We used a survey approach, validated with empirical data, and enquiries to over 13,000 fisheries experts (of which 1,188 responded) to assess the current effectiveness of fisheries management regimes worldwide; for each of those regimes, we also calculated the probable sustainability of reported catches to determine how management affects fisheries sustainability. Our survey shows that 7% of all coastal states undergo rigorous scientific assessment for the generation of management policies, 1.4% also have a participatory and transparent processes to convert scientific recommendations into policy, and 0.95% also provide for robust mechanisms to ensure the compliance with regulations; none is also free of the effects of excess fishing capacity, subsidies, or access to foreign fishing. A comparison of fisheries management attributes with the sustainability of reported fisheries catches indicated that the conversion of scientific advice into policy, through a participatory and transparent process, is at the core of achieving fisheries sustainability, regardless of other attributes of the fisheries. Our results illustrate the great vulnerability of the world's fisheries and the urgent need to meet well-identified guidelines for sustainable management; they also provide a baseline against which future changes can be quantified.
This background report provides overviews of the forward-looking analyses carried out
for the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 (OECD, 2008). The first of these overviews
gives the results of three comprehensive policy packages that were simulated: enhanced
environment-related policies in OECD countries, in OECD countries+BRIC and in OECD
countries+BRIC+Rest of the World. The second overview summarises the impact of the Baseline
and policy packages on the various regions, showing important differences and similarities.
These overviews are important in order to appreciate the case for international collaboration.
The focus of this report is on the comprehensive analyses conducted with the suite of models of
OECD, MNP and others. It does not discuss theme-specific simulations that were run directly with
the ENV-Linkages model of OECD. Moreover, the focus of the report is on the analyses in which
model-based quantification is important.
Furthermore, this report documents the results of model-based quantification in more detail than
available in the OECD Environmental Outlook report. Frequently these details have featured
in discussions with delegates and other reviewers and, from a good practice point of view, are
therefore documented in this report.
Other examples of the importance of documenting details are the time series that were
developed as part of the modelling for the Outlook. For many environmental variables, the full
set includes the period from 1970 to 1980, which helps to put the projections into perspective.
Additionally, the analysis for the slow-changing processes features a policy horizon of 2030
and an impact horizon of 2050. This background report gives this sort of wider information,
allowing the Outlook reader a better understanding of the results in the main report.
Finally, this report describes the modelling framework and the assumptions behind the outcomes
in the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030. It explains the relation between the variables used
in the Outlook. Also, it discusses the main uncertainty issues at a deeper level than in the main
report.
Biological homogenization is the dominant process shaping the future global biosphere. As global transportation becomes faster and more frequent, it is inevitable that biotic intermixing will increase. Unique local biotas will become extinct only to be replaced by already widespread biotas that can tolerate human activities. This process is affecting all aspects of our world: language, economies, and ecosystems alike. The ultimate outcome is the loss of uniqueness and the growth of uniformity. In this way, fast food restaurants exist in Moscow and Java Sparrows breed on Hawaii.
Biological homogenization qualifies as a global environmental catastrophe. The Earth has never witnessed such a broad and complete reorganization of species distributions.
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
