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Quantitative analysis of farming systems for policy formulation: Development of new tools
Abstract
The debate on land use policy is often turbid, due to a focus on policy means despite the absence of explicit policy objectives. To increase transparency of policy formulation, scientific tools can be used that make explicit possible trade-offs among policy objectives and uncertainties on effects of policy means. During the last decade, tools have been developed based on quantitative systems analysis (QSA) with the purpose of stimulating more fact-driven judgement of agricultural production systems that can contribute to rural development. These tools can be used in different phases of policy formulation to address different policy questions with various time and spatial scales. This paper describes a new QSA tool developed and applied in a case study in South Mali which addressed short-term effects of various policy instruments at farm level. The complementary role of this predictive QSA tool compared with tools that explore strategic land use options and consequences of conflicting aims is discussed. The potential of QSA tools in the policy formulation process is discussed and suggestions are made to enhance their impact.
... BEM combine economic and natural resources for the identification of optimal combinations of agricultural activities to achieve a set of objectives related to land use. Agricultural activities are quantitatively described at the field or livestock unit level by their inputs and outputs (called technical coefficients) representing their performance in terms of desired goods and services as well as the environmental externalities attached to them (van Ittersum et al., 1997;Hengsdijk et al., 1998). ...
... In explorative studies, BEM are used for the evaluation of the plausible consequences of a combination of external trends and technological changes (including alternative agricultural activities) combined in a scenario (Hengsdijk et al., 1998;Hengsdijk et al., 2003;Belhouchette et al., 2010). Lopez-Ridaura (2005a) identified three main types of scenarios for explorative studies: (i) evaluating the consequences of conflicting objectives by contrasting different objective functions or by maximizing or minimizing one objective while setting another objective as constraint (Lu et al., 2004;Lopez Ridaura, 2005b) (Waithaka et al., 2006;Cittadini et al., 2008) and (iii) changing one of the parameters of the model such as the price of a given product, subsidies or taxes (Semaan et al., 2007). ...
Les systèmes agricoles sont en constante évolution sous les effets conjugués d'innovations techniques et organisationnelles et de changements du contexte socio-économique. A l'échelle d'un territoire, des acteurs locaux peuvent encourager et accompagner des changements de ce type s'ils ont une vision claire de leurs impacts potentiels. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'élaborer et d'appliquer une démarche permettant d'assister agriculteurs et autres acteurs locaux d'un territoire dans la construction et l'évaluation de scénarios d'évolutions des systèmes agricoles. Une démarche basée sur des approches permettant une analyse prospective, multicritères, multi-échelles et participative d'évaluation des systèmes agricoles a été développée. Elle a été mise en oeuvre en Camargue (sud-est de la France), avec des exploitants céréaliers et des acteurs de la production agricole et de la gestion du territoire. Des scénarios portant sur la réforme de la politique agricole commune (PAC) en 2012-2014, ainsi que sur des objectifs nationaux de réduction de la consommation de pesticides et de développement de l'agriculture biologique ont été développés. Ces perspectives d'évolution des systèmes agricoles camarguais ont été évaluées, via la formalisation de nombreuses données et connaissances. Deux outils de modélisation ont été utilisés : un modèle multi-agent a permis la mise en place de séances de simulation interactives avec des agriculteurs, et un modèle bioéconomique a été développé et utilisé avec des acteurs locaux tels que le syndicat des riziculteurs et le parc naturel régional. Les scénarios portant sur la réforme de la PAC ont confirmé la dépendance des exploitations rizicoles aux subventions. Des agriculteurs ont testé différentes stratégies d'adaptation de leurs exploitations à la suppression de l'aide couplée à la production rizicole. Ces stratégies, souvent basées sur la diversification des activités ou sur la conversion à l'agriculture biologique, ne permettaient pas de compenser les pertes économiques liées à la disparition de l'aide couplée. A l'échelle du territoire, ces stratégies réduiraient fortement la surface cultivée en riz, avec des impacts importants sur d'autres activités en lien avec la production agricole. Cependant ces stratégies vont dans le sens des objectifs gouvernementaux de réduction des impacts de l'agriculture sur l'environnement. Des scénarios portant spécifiquement sur ces objectifs ont permis d'identifier des marges de manoeuvre importantes au niveau des exploitations céréalières camarguaises. Cette thèse propose un cadre pour la mise en oeuvre de démarches d'évaluation des systèmes agricoles dans un territoire, qui associe les agriculteurs et les acteurs locaux à différentes étapes, depuis leur engagement pour le choix des scénarios, l'acquisition et l'analyse des données, la construction des outils de simulation et l'évaluation de scénarios. La combinaison de différents outils de modélisation pour la réalisation de réflexions collectives, pourrait contribuer à la mise en place d'actions pour un développement durable de l'agriculture.
... The results of the statistical analysis showed that the slope gradient plays a significant role when farmers make decision about set-aside. However, only 2 out of the 31 farmers that were questioned explicitly mentioned the slope gradient as a decision criterion (Table 3) This is a problem that already has been recognised by many researchers in psychology and related social sciences (Austin et al., 1998a,b;Hengsdijk, 1998;. In this particular case, farmers probably do not see slope gradient as a separate and isolated field property but incorporate it in the more general field property 'good or poor quality'. ...
... This suggests that the results of farmer's questionnaires should be used with care when studying decision procedures. This has also been observed in other studies trying to model the effectiveness of agricultural policies on farmer's behaviour using psychological, social and economic variables (Austin et al., 1998a,b;Hengsdijk et al., 1998;Van Ittersum et al., 1998). ...
Set-aside programs of the European government have a double impact on the regional soil erosion risk in agricultural regions: (1) there is less area susceptible to soil erosion and (2) fields with a high erosion rate are preferably taken out of production resulting in a decrease of the average erosion risk. In order to quantify this double effect an inquiry among farmers in central Belgium was set up to find out which fields are preferably taken out of production. A statistical analysis pointed out that fields with a weak slope gradient, a loamy topsoil and good soil drainage have a low probability of being taken out of production. The results of the questionnaire were used to construct a transition probability map representing for each field the probability that it will be taken out of production. These transition probabilities were used to simulate the decrease in regional erosion risk for different scenarios. The outcome of these simulations suggests that there is a negative power relation between the set-aside percentage and the regional soil erosion risk.
... These studies employed land use data as input; it is difficult to quantify the policy impacts. Because the natural condition and socioeconomic environment affects farmland abandonment as a complex human-land interaction system, a forward quantitative analysis of the effectiveness of arable land policy needs to distinguish the policy effects from the natural and socioeconomic factors [2,34,35]. This is the reason why a large number of studies related to farmland abandonment have been devoted to the analysis of driving factors and driving mechanisms [2,10,36,37]. ...
In the past two decades, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China (MARA) has issued a series of strict cultivated land protection policies to prevent the spread of farmland abandonment and maintain a dynamic balance between the quantity and quality of arable land. However, high-speed economic development, strict arable land protection policies, and ecological security and sustainable development strategies interacting with human activities have brought challenges to quantifying the effectiveness of arable land protection policies. In this study, we proposed a method to quantify the impacts of the arable land protection policies and evaluate the quantitative impacts on farmland abandonment in Guangdong Province after 2014 from the perspective of landscape ecology. The results illustrated that the landscape fragmentation of farmland abandonment in Guangdong Province decreased after the new arable land policies were issued. More annual farmland abandonment (AFA) shifted to seasonal farmland abandonment (SFA), revealing the considerable pronounced effects of farmland abandonment management. The new policies effectively restrained the area increase for AFA in the regions with lower rural population (RPOP) and lower gross domestic product (GDP), and reduced the fragmentation of AFA in the regions with the highest RPOP and lower GDP. Additionally, the new policies effectively restrained the fragmentation increase for SFA in the regions with lower RPOP and lower GDP, and reduced the area increase for SFA in the regions with the highest RPOP and lower GDP. The management effect was not that significant in the regions with higher RPOP and higher GDP. These findings will provide important data references for arable land decision making in southern China.
... Una herramienta que ha ganado popularidad para la cuantificación de indicadores es la generación de coeficientes técnicos (Hengsdijk et al., 1998). Los coeficientes técnicos permiten describir cuantitativamente el desempeño de un gran número de alternativas en diferentes unidades de paisaje (figura 7). ...
En la última década el concepto de sustentabilidad se ha establecido como un eje fundamental para el diseño y evaluación de sistemas de manejo de recursos naturales, desarrollo de nuevas tecnologías, e incluso de políticas públicas. El concepto sigue siendo sin embargo, extremadamente difícil de definir y poner en práctica de manera coherente. Cuando se profundiza en el tema y se trata de entender y analizar la sustentabilidad de los sistemas socio-ambientales, que son dinámicos y multi-agentes, afloran sus vicisitudes y retos desde el punto de vista conceptual y metodológico. El desarrollo de marcos de análisis y evaluación que permitan hacer operativo el concepto de sustentabilidad de manera coherente es así más necesario que nunca. Dentro del proyecto de “Evaluación de Sustentabilidad “MESMIS”, un esfuerzo interdisciplinario que comenzó hace diez años y reúne investigadores procedentes de varias instituciones de México, queremos aportar elementos para hacer frente a este reto.
Justamente este libro es el resultado de una intensa reflexión interna del grupo de trabajo. En efecto, después de haber publicado en 1999 el libro “Sustentabilidad y manejo de recursos naturales” con la descripción del Marco MESMIS, el grupo inició una etapa de intensa difusión de la metodología que aportó materiales muy valiosos, una rica experiencia y nuevas inquietudes teórica-prácticas. El libro que hoy ponemos a su consideración trata, por lo tanto, de dar respuesta a estos retos manifestados al interior del equipo. Uno de ésos tiene que ver con la necesidad de integrar todo el bagaje de experiencias y reflexiones del proyecto a lo largo de diez años, incorporando a su vez las nuevas ideas y propuestas que han resultado de la propia evolución de la literatura sobre el tema de sustentabilidad a nivel internacional. El otro fundamental es el poder profundizar sobre varios aspectos teóricos relacionadas con el componente social y con la naturaleza dinámica y multidimensional de la sustentabilidad. En este volumen se quiere dar también los elementos, a través de programas amistosos de simulación interactiva (incluidos en un CD adjunto), que ayuden a entender la naturaleza dinámica de los atributos de la sustentabilidad y la interdependencia entre ellos.
... They find that policy analysis for sustainable land use is critically dependent on the specification of the linkages between decision-making procedures regarding resource allocation by farm households and their supply response to changes in the economic and institutional environment. Hengsdijk, van Ittersum and Rossing (1998) analyze the impact of various output and input pricing policy reforms on two farm types in South Mali in a cotton producing area. They found that while the impact of these policy changes is positive in terms of income growth, while the environmental sustainability indicators show an ambiguous effect. ...
... They find that policy analysis for sustainable land use is critically dependent on the specification of the linkages between decision-making procedures regarding resource allocation by farm households and their supply response to changes in the economic and institutional environment. Hengsdijk, van Ittersum and Rossing (1998) analyze the impact of various output and input pricing policy reforms on two farm types in South Mali in a cotton producing area. They found that while the impact of these policy changes is positive in terms of income growth, while the environmental sustainability indicators show an ambiguous effect. ...
... They find that policy analysis for sustainable land use is critically dependent on the specification of the linkages between decision-making procedures regarding resource allocation by farm households and their supply response to changes in the economic and institutional environment. Hengsdijk, van Ittersum and Rossing (1998) analyze the impact of various output and input pricing policy reforms on two farm types in South Mali in a cotton producing area. They found that while the impact of these policy changes is positive in terms 5 of income growth, while the environmental sustainability indicators show an ambiguous effect. ...
Small ruminants supported by barley production and natural grazing in the extensive
rangeland, are the main principal economic activities in low rainfall areas. Increased demand
for livestock products has encouraged a rapid expansion in small ruminant numbers over the
last two decades. Attempts to improve resource management in the low rainfall areas by using
technological change are often impeded by non-technical problems related to farmers risk
behavior, insecure property rights and inadequate policy context. A major concern of
governments is to achieve sustainable economic growth and to alleviate poverty without
jeopardizing the quality of the environment. This represents particular problems to the
agricultural sector because of the direct links between production and the natural resource
base, especially in the developing countries where dependence on agriculture for income and
employment is generally high.
... However, the actual effectiveness of the policy instruments, which depends more on the present than on the future configuration of agriculture, is beyond the scope of this model. Another type of model, including farm households and markets, should be used (Struif Bontkes and van Keulen, 2003;Hengsdijk et al., 1998). The dairy farming model can easily be used to explore the scope of new technologies or policies. ...
Instead of continuously adapting current dairy farming systems according to the ruling legal instruments, exploring strategic development options for the farming system with a focus on the final environmental goals may provide better perspectives for farm continuation. To identify promising options, the dairy farming model was developed. The model describes options of different intensities for producing feed in the field, for processing or buying feed and for converting feed into milk. The combinations of different intensities result in different types of income levels, different nutrient emissions into the ecosystem and different abilities to manage the landscape. The model reconciles economic objectives (maximizing income per ha) with ecological objectives (minimizing nutrient leakages and maximizing landscape values). The multiple-objective model is in turn fed by other models, such as technical coefficient generators for grass, maize and fodder beets. The dairy farming model is applied to assess the type of farming systems that meet environmental policy objectives and analyse the perspectives of dairy farming on sandy soils in the Netherlands. It is shown that many different dairy farming systems are possible meeting the environmental goals (maximum 34 kg N leached, 30 kg N volatilized and a P surplus below 2.2 kg ha−1), with a range in environmental and economic performance. The scenario selected depends on the preference of the stakeholder. General characteristics are low N application rates on grazed grassland, associated with the restriction on nitrate leaching, animals housed in low-emission stables, associated with the restriction on ammonia volatilization, and a substantial part of the concentrates produced in the region, associated with the restriction on P surplus. Production and utilization of hay is an option to reduce N excretion by the animals. Regional or on-farm concentrate production is economically only attractive if land is in surplus under pressure of environmental goals.
... Its principal methodology based on Farming System Analysis (FSA) framework of Fresco et al. (1994), has been subjected to criticism because of its vulnerability to subjectivity, the lack of unification of methods, and the qualitative aspect of derived data (Stroosmijder and Van Rheenen, 1993). Attempts to the development of more Quantitative Farming Systems Analysis (QFSA) and Farm Level Optimisation Resource Allocation (FLORA) are yet to encompass all the criticism related to FSA (Hengsdijk et al., 1998;Nibbering and Van Rheenen, 1998). Despite this ongoing debate, there is agreement that quantitative farming systems analysis should complement classical FSA with models that describe essential processes and interactions in farming systems (Van Rheenen, 1995). ...
This research provides quantitative information on short and long-term effects of shifting agriculture on soil and spatial pattern of landscape mosaic dynamics in southern Cameroon. An analysis of this farming system led to the development of a conceptual model of the spatio-temporal dynamics of shifting agriculture, including transition matrices of rotational cycles. Geostatistical characterization of soil variability in the area showed that soil properties are highly spatially dependent even at plot level, with significant sensitivity to soil-forming factors that explained 30 to 70% of the total variation in the subsurface. Shifting agricultural land use practices accounted for 30 to 35% of the variation of topsoil. A robust quantitative multi-criteria method was developed for quantifying and selecting soil variables that are the most sensitive to these agricultural practices (in this case: pH, calcium, phosphorus, bulk density, organic carbon), considered as the minimum data set (MDS) for characterizing soil conditions in the area. Empirical models of linear/quadratic fractional rational functions were successfully fitted to time series data of these MDS variables to derive quantitative measures on temporal changes in soil with land use. Multi-spectral satellite imagery was able to map with 80% accuracy the extension front of shifting agricultural landscape and the most dynamic land cover types (crop fields, young fallows), which shift every season and every year. The research has produced a set of data and methods that can be used in combination with rare cloud-free satellite images for spatio-temporal simulation modelling of landscape dynamics in order to guide decision-making on agricultural development, land allocation for land use planning and forest resources management.
... Una herramienta que ha ganado popularidad para la cuantificación de indicadores es la generación de coeficientes técnicos (Hengsdijk et al., 1998). Los coeficientes técnicos permiten describir cuantitativamente el desempeño de un gran número de alternativas en diferentes unidades de paisaje (figura 7). ...
... • livestock activities were defined on the basis of energy intake levels (feeding strategies) and production objectives (selling strategies) • feeds were classified in quality categories based on the energy intake level they can maintain, and on seasonal availability. In defining the strategy parameters, intensive were less-mobile systems, and extensive more-mobile systems • current cropping activities were described using survey data for actual production systems • alternative cropping activities represented feasible production systems that were not yet widely adopted (Hengsdijk et al. 1998). ...
Ecological policy is a subject of researching the guidelines of ecological actions performed in a definite period by the government, party, or other political organizations to serve the society, economy, culture, and environment. It is a branch of crossing with two branches of science, policy and ecology, and includes a series of, strategies, laws, approaches, methods, and regulations performed with ecological conservation as the main project. The evaluation of ecological policy is the product of crossing with the two branches of science, with the contents of actuality evaluation, and the estimation of the effects of policy changing and adjusting. Regardless how the global ecological policy changed, the purpose of environment conservation should be the scientific utilization of resources, decrease of environment conservation cost, and increase of environment improvement speed. The key methods of ecological policy evaluation should include ecological health evaluation, ecological ecosystem services evaluation, economic analysis of ecological programs, and humanities and sociological evaluation.
Macroeconomic policies generally have a decisive influence on cropping pattern and intensity of farming. Policy adjustments often introduced under structural adjustment programs (SAP) also influence natural resource use and the environment. In West Africa, soil degradation is one of the most important problems of agriculture and soil erosion is the main cause of this phenomenon. However, there is a frustrating lack of empirical evidence showing what effects policies have on the acreage, management of various crops, soil erosion and crop productivity. This paper uses a bio-economic model to assess the impact of the Structural Adjustment Programs (SAP) on soil erosion in the Northern Benin. The main conclusion is that the implementation of the SAP appears to have led to a more sustainable agriculture in this cotton producing region of Benin. However, this study has not quantified other sustainability indicators such as the soil nutrient or organic matter balance. But the results show that the reduction of soil loss was mainly due to an increased use of fertilizer, which may have had a positive effect on the soil nutrient balance also. The improved institutional framework under SAP certainly contributed to this positive effect.
In this chapter we give an overview of a number of approaches used in the biophysical sciences to quanta the relationship
between agricultural production and soil degradation. First the concept of soil degradation is discussed, and the various components detailed. Then the approaches are assessed in the context of bio-economic models in which biophysical
processes are linked to decision making processes at household,village and regional levels. The main emphasis of the chapter is on the household level where the direct interaction between
decision makers and the biophysical processes takes place. Different biophysical approaches are presented, used for generation of data for incorporation in bioeconomic models.
In semi-arid south-western Niger, external fertilizer inputs are a complement of livestock-mediated nutrient transfers for maintaining soil fertility. This paper discusses scenarios of intensification for different farm household types in an area representative of the wetter parts of semi-arid Sahel. Twenty-five-year projections suggest that soil fertility may not always or irreversibly deteriorate under intensification, and that nitrogen is the main external input required. Owning animals allows some households to achieve food security and maintain soil fertility by capturing and mobilizing soil nutrients. Intensification will bring various benefits to livelihoods, but these will be unevenly distributed. The results of this paper should caution scientists and policy-makers against the often heard warning of inevitable losses in soil fertility in the Sahel associated with intensive technologies, and against extrapolating conclusions attained at specific locations or social groups. Endogenous coping strategies based on using local inputs can also be effective and should be explored in addition to a continued attention for the need for more targeted uses of external inputs.
To support the different phases of a policy making process aimed at changing land use, distinct types of land use studies are required. This paper focuses on exploratory land use studies and their role in the phase of formulating strategic policy objectives. Exploratory land use studies contribute to a transparent discussion on policy objectives by showing ultimate technical possibilities and consequences of imposing different priorities to agro-technical, food security, socio-economic and environmental objectives. A methodology is presented in which science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives under given values of exogenous variables (e.g. regarding population growth and requirements for agricultural produce). Land use scenarios are generated showing consequences of different priorities for objectives by using natural resources and technical possibilities in different ways. Applications of such an approach are given for the global, regional and farm level, each addressing specific questions and target groups. The paper focuses on the type of results these studies produce and their role in the societal and political debate on strategic land use policy and planning. It is concluded that if exploratory land use studies are carried out in true interaction with target groups, they may well contribute to the debate and learning on sustainable land use options and a purposeful identification of effective policy instruments in a next phase of the policy making process.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A complex and volatile decision-making environment and constant pressure on product prices, due to the cost-price squeeze, complicates decision-making for grain farmers in the Western Cape. Furthermore, available alternative crops and cultivation practices are limited due to local soil and climatic conditions. The farm system itself is complex due to the interdependence of a variety of factors and the synergy resulting from specific sequences of cash and pasture crops. The aim of this research project was to establish a method that would contribute to identifying strategies to advance the profitability of grain production. Research in the grain industry is traditionally specialised within specific fields, such as, agronomy, soil science, entomology, agricultural economics, etc., causing a fragmentation of knowledge. To ensure that the systems nature of a complex farm is accommodated, various related research domains should be acknowledged and incorporated. The use of expert group discussions, as a research method, is suitable, firstly, for gathering information in a meaningful manner and, secondly, to stimulate individual creativity by presenting alternative perspectives provided by various participating experts. In support of expert group discussions, simulation models in the form of multi-period whole-farm models were developed. This type of modelling supports the accurate financial simulation of farms, while the user friendliness and adaptability thereof can accurately accommodate typical farm interrelationships, and quickly measure the financial impact of suggested changes to parameters. Suggestions made by experts during the group discussions can thus be quickly introduced into the model. The financial implications are instantly available to prevent further exploration of non-viable plans and to fine-tune the viable plans. Participants in the group discussions represent fields of expertise such as agronomy, soil science, entomology, plant pathology, the agricultural chemical industry, agricultural mechanisation. Also represented are professionals such as extension officers from local agribusinesses, local producers and agricultural economists. The dynamics of the group discussions are supported by each participant’s specific strengths and perspectives. For each relatively homogeneous production area of the Western Cape, a typical farm budget model was developed, which served as the basis for the group discussions. The budget models measure profitability in terms of the IRR (internal rate of return on capital investment) and affordability in terms of expected cash flow. For the Swartland, the homogeneous areas identified were Koeberg/Wellington, the Middle Swartland and the Rooi Karoo, and for the Southern Cape, the homogenous areas identified were, the Goue Rûens, Middle Rûens and Heidelberg Vlakte. A model of a typical farm in the Wesselsbron area was developed for comparison with the Western Cape farms. For each area the expected impact of climate change, fluctuating product and input prices, and the possible impact of partial conversion to bio-fuel production were evaluated in terms of expected impact on profitability. Various area-specific strategies were identified that could enhance the profitability of grain production: most of the strategies focused on optimising machinery usage and expanding or intensifying the livestock enterprise. The repeated successful use of the model in support of the expert groups in all the chosen study areas illustrates the value thereof for identifying and evaluating plans to increase the profitability of small grain production. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: 'n Komplekse en wisselvallige besluitnemingsomgewing, en konstante druk op produkpryse weens die koste/prys knyptang bemoeilik besluitneming op graanplase in die Wes-Kaap terwyl die beskikbare alternatiewe verbouingsgewasse en -praktyke beperk is weens plaaslike grond en klimatologiese eienskappe. Die boerderystelsel self is kompleks weens die interafhanklikheid van die dele daarvan en die sinergisme verkry deur byvoorbeeld die spesifieke orde van opeenvolging van kontant- en weidingsgewasse in die wisselboustelsel. Hierdie navorsingsprojek se doel is om 'n werkwyse te vestig wat die identifisering van strategieë te ondersteun wat moontlik die winsgewendheid van graanproduksie kan bevorder. Navorsing in die graanbedryf is tradisioneel gespesialiseerd binne 'n spesifieke navorsingsveld soos agronomie, grondkunde, entomologie en landbou-ekonomie. Dit gee daartoe aanleiding dat elk van hierdie velde op dimensies van die boerderystelsel fokus asof dit in isolasie bestaan. Om te verseker dat die stelselsgeaardheid van 'n komplekse boerdery effektief verreken word behoort navorsing erkenning te gee die interafhanklikheid van die dimensies van 'n boerdery. Ekspert groepbesprekings is 'n navorsingsmetode wat eerstens geskik is om kennis sinvol byeen te bring en tweedens om kreatiwiteit by deelnemers te stimuleer deur die blootstelling aan nuwe perspektiewe van kundiges van ander spesialiteitsvelde. Ter ondersteuning van die ekspert groepbesprekings is simulasiemodelle in die vorm van multi-periode geheelboerderybegrotings ontwikkel. Die tipe modellering ondersteun die akkurate simulasie van boerderye terwyl die gebruikersvriendelikheid en aanpasbaarheid daarvan die tipiese interverwantskappe van 'n boerdery akkuraat weergee en die impak van aanpassings aan die parameters van die boerdery model vinnig kan meet. Voorstelle deur die deelnemende eksperts kan dus vinnig aangebring word en die finansiële implikasie is dadelik beskikbaar. Deelnemers aan die ekspertgroepbesprekings het velde verteenwoordig soos agronomie, grondkunde, entomologie, die landbou chemiese bedryf, landbou meganisasie, plantpatologie, voorligtingsbeamptes van plaaslike agribesighede, plaaslike produsente en landbou-ekonome. Die dinamika van die groepbesprekings word ondersteun deur elke deelnemer se spesifieke sterkpunte en perspektief. Vir elke homogene produksiegebied in die Wes-Kaap is 'n aparte begrotingsmodel van 'n tipiese plaas vir daardie area ontwikkel. Hierdie modelle het gedien as die basis van die groepbesprekings. Die modelle meet die winsgewendheid van boerderye oor die langtermyn deur middel van die IOK (interne opbrengskoers op kapitaal investering) en die bekostigbaarheid in terme van verwagte kontantvloei. Binne die Swartland is die Koeberg/Wellington, Middel Swartland en Rooi Karoo as homogeen geïdentifiseer en vir die Suid-Kaap die areas van die Goue Rûens, die Middel Rûens en die Heidelberg Vlakte. 'n Tipiese plaas model is ook vir die Wesselsbron area ontwikkel om te vergelyk met die Wes-Kaap areas se modelle. Vir elke area is die verwagte impak van klimaatveranderings, fluktuerende produk- en insetpryse en die moontlike impak van 'n biobrandstofbedryf geëvalueer in terme van die verwagte impak op winsgewendheid. Verskeie area spesifieke strategieë is geïdentifiseer wat moontlik die winsgewendheid van graanproduksie kan bevorder. Die meeste strategieë fokus op die optimalisering van masjineriegebruik en die uitbreiding of intensifisering van die veevertakkings. Die herhaalde suksesvolle gebruik van die modelle ter ondersteuning van die ekspertgroepe in al die gekose studie areas illustreer die waarde daarvan vir die identifisering en evaluering van planne om die winsgewendheid van kleingraanproduksie te verhoog. Thesis (PhD (Agric) (Agricultural Economics)--University of Stellenbosch, 2010.
The purposes of this paper are: (a) to describe a framework designed for multi-scale sustainability evaluation of Natural Resource Management Systems (NRMS), and (b) to illustrate its application for quantitative analysis using linear programming. The framework described here is intended to contribute to the operationalisation of the concept of sustainability by supporting the processes of design, evaluation and implementation of alternative NRMS at different scales. In this paper, Linear Programming is used for the quantitative analysis of indicators and their trade-offs; using a schematised example, the basic characteristics of the Multi-scale Multiple Goal Linear Programming (M-MGLP) method are described. In M-MGLP, indicators pertaining to different scales of analysis can be set as objectives or constraints for the optimisation. In this way, stakeholders interacting in a specific region can be made aware of the consequences of alternative NRMS in terms of the different indicators at the same scale and/or for indicators at other scales of analysis. The paper ends with a discussion of the main strengths and limitations of the framework and, specifically, of linear programming.
Less-favoured Areas (LFAs) are defined as regions with low agricultural potential because of limited and uncertain rainfall, poor soils, steep slopes and/or other biophysical constraints, as well as regions that may have higher agricultural potential, but with poor infrastructure and limited access to markets, low population density and/or other socioeconomic constraints. About 800 million people live in LFAs, mostly in the semi-arid tropics of Africa and South Asia, mountain and hillside areas in Africa, Latin America and South-east Asia, as well as in large parts of the humid (sub-)tropics of Africa and Latin America. The objective of this chapter is to contribute to the design and evaluation of options for more sustainable NRM (Natural Resource Management) in LFAs. First, we deal with some basic issues in the design of alternatives for LFAs, including their definition, their biophysical and socio-economic diversity and heterogeneity and the main development pathways in which alternative NRM strategies may play a role. As LFAs are characterized by strong resource limitations at different scales, relevant issues on productivity and resource use efficiency in LFAs are discussed and a generic framework for the evaluation and design of alternatives is presented. In the search for options for more sustainable NRM in LFAs (technically feasible, economically viable, ecologically maintainable, socially acceptable), alternatives at different scales must be designed (including technological innovations and policy measures), aiming at maximum marginal resource use efficiency for the most limiting resource, and maximum absolute resource use efficiency for resources locally in more abundant supply. Essential for the success of those alternatives is strong stakeholder participation in both, their design and evaluation, using a multi-scale approach and taking into account the biophysical and socio-economic diversity and heterogeneity of NRM in LFAs.
The farm household system (FHS) is one of the main entry points for interventions for rural development. To identify appropriate interventions, it is necessary to assess a priori potential impacts of these interventions on the livelihoods and environment of rural households. This study presents an analytical approach to assess concurrently the environmental and economic performance of FHSs. The approach combines qualitative resource flow diagrams for rapidly assessing the organization and resource flows of the FHS with quantitative economic and environmental performance indicators of the household. We apply the approach to three types of mixed crop-livestock FHSs in Northern Ethiopia, i.e., wealthy, medium, and poor FHS. The wealthier FHS diversifies production, recycles nutrients, and makes substantial use of common resources, with the risk of degrading them. Diversification leads to increased labor productivity at the expense of low land productivity. The livelihood strategy of the poor FHS is based on a combination of off- and on-farm activities. Although the medium FHS is fully engaged in farming, the household is not able to produce sufficient food on-farm, but is able to use cash generated from selling products to bridge the food deficit. The low-cost analytical approach uses existing databases and a limited set of indicators to evaluate economic and environmental performance of FHSs. The methodology can be used to assess and evaluate the current performance of different types of FHSs. This information can be used to identify FHS-specific interventions (recommendation domains) aimed at poverty reduction or improved resource use efficiency and to assess environmental effects of these interventions
An eco-regional approach to research is called for to address emerging problems related to regional food supply. In an eco-regional analysis information can be gathered on constraints to and possibilities for agriculture in its physical and socio-economic environment. This information can reveal ways to increase agricultural production while at the same time conserving the natural resource base.
In this paper attention is given to the methodology of exploring future possibilities for land based agriculture in the European Union. To that end future technical possibilities of primary production are confronted with a number of different objectives that are put to land based agriculture. The technical possibilities are derived from regional production potentials of different indicator crops that have been assessed with the aid of a crop growth simulation model. In an Interactive Multiple Goal Linear Programming (IMGLP) procedure four different scenarios of optimal land use are calculated, considering four distinct political priority settings.
The results of the study have been published in a report to the Government by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy, an independent advisory body to the Dutch Government. In a public debate following the publication of the report, several different groups have discussed the usefulness of this type of analysis. The initial reaction to the study was somewhat reserved, because this type of exploration of the future gives rather different results than the more usual future studies that rely on extrapolated trends. However, in the discussions that followed the complementarity of both approaches has been accepted.
Identifying options for agricultural development requires a method that allows quantification of the technical possibilities, definition of the regional constraints and identification of the development objectives. Such a method, based on the interactive multiple goal linear programming (lMGLP) technique, has been applied in the framework of land use planning for the fifth Region in Mali.
The results of the analysis show that financially the most attractive sector is animal husbandry. A high degree of food self-sufficiency can be achieved, but requires intensification of arable farming, which is not economically viable.
Application of the method in this actual situation shows it to be a useful tool for integration of knowledge from various disciplines and to be able to serve as a means of communication among scientists, planners and policy makers. Using this method thus contributes to a more efficient application of knowledge in establishing agricultural development options for regional planning.
A Dairy Farming Model was developed to screen the potentials for development of dairy farming on sandy soils in the Netherlands with respect to environmental, agro-technical and economic demands. The Dairy Farming Model consists of technical coefficient generators (TGC models) and an interactive multiple goal linear programming model (IMGLP model). The TCG models have been used to quantify input-output coefficients for a wide range of production techniques for grass, maize, fodder beet and milk. The results of the TCG models have been used in the IMGLP model, that optimizes the set of production techniques with respect to the goals defined.The model has been applied to a fictitious region with sandy soils. The analysis shows that dairy farming can meet both economic and environmental goals, as set by the government for the year 2000. However, this requires a reduction in labour income. Many different dairy farming systems are possible. A few general characteristics are: low N application on grazed grassland, a large proportion of the animals housed in low-emission stables and a substantial part of the concentrates produced in the region itself,Application of the Dairy Farming Model to the situation at the experimental dairy farm 'De Marke' has shown that the model is suited for exploring the opportunities for the development of dairy farming at a specific location, provided it can be initialized for that situation. Initial farm lay-out and measures taken at 'De Marke' have been evaluated.
The complexity of the relationships between government and society, and the wide range of activities characteristic of the modern state, inevitably give rise to disagreement over what constitutes the proper mode of analysis of public administration. This problem of theory is closely linked to the problem of establishing and explaining what goes on in practice; and it is the practice of politics which creates the greatest theoretical hurdle. The response of one dominant approach to the study and practice of governmental activity, characterized here as 'managerialism', is to leave out both policy and politics. The argument of the article is that, not only can politics not be 'left out', but that political analysis offers a superior approach to 'managerial' analysis both as a form of explanation and as a prescriptive mode.
Among the policy alternatives for limiting fertiliser use, a tax on chemical fertiliser is administratively the easiest option. Its efficacy depends partly on the responsiveness of fertiliser demand to price changes. This paper reviews the empirical methodologies available for estimating the price elasticity of a derived demand and presents the results of several econometric models. The econometric analysis shows that the response of UK fertiliser demand to own-price changes is greater than has been assumed on the basis of programming studies of arable farms. This result establishes a necessary but not a sufficient condition for an effective fertiliser tax. The full impact of a fertiliser tax over the longer term depends on the extent to which technical change is driven by trends in relative prices.
Current production systems for flower bulbs in the Netherlands employ considerable quantities of pesticides and nutrients per unit area. In 1993, an association of growers and environmentalists set out to design new farming systems that meet environmental objectives in addition to economic objectives. To support the design process, an explorative study was carried out to bring together the fragmented agronomic information and to assess agro-technical options for sustainable flower bulb production with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years. Crop and inter-crop management systems representing the agro-technical components of sustainability at the farm level, were generated with a computer model by systematically varying four system characteristics, three of which represented strategic and tactical aspects of crop protection. Subjective components, one economic and two environmental objectives and various socio-economic constraints, were identified in interaction with the stakeholders. Interactive multiple goal linear programming was used to optimize the objectives at the farm level and determine the exchange value of the economic objective in terms of the environmental objectives. Calculations were carried out for two reference farm types. The results revealed that the negative impact of environment-oriented production systems on farm gross margin is importantly mitigated by strategic choices at the farm level, such as renting land and allowing a soil health improving crop, even though of low gross margin, into the rotation. In contrast, the a priori attention of the growers was focused on improving tactical pest and nutrient management at the crop level, the effect of which on farm gross margin is constrained by the strategic choices. Sensitivity analyses highlighted the need for more insight into the ecology of soil-borne growth reducing factors and their effect on crop yield. The paper describes the approach used, reports results and discusses the usefulness of the approach for the stakeholders and for disciplinary crop protection research.
This article presents a bio-economic modelling approach for the assessment of the effectiveness of different agrarian policies to improve farm household income and soil fertility. Farm household decisions on allocation of land, labour and capital resources for crop and production technique choice are simulated, taking into account resource availability, household objectives and prevailing market conditions. The modelling framework relies on a combination of three procedures: (1) farm household modelling, (2) linear programming, and (3) partial equilibrium analysis. These procedures are applied to evaluate the impact at farm household and regional level of technology improvement and a variety of policy instruments: improvement of infrastructure, price support, land policy and credit schemes. Regional aggregation allows prices to be determined endogenously on regional markets. The approach is applied to the Cercle de Koutiala in Mali, for which selected results are given as an example. Results indicate that technology alone cannot sufficiently induce farmers to adopt sustainable production systems. Additional economic incentives are necessary to foster technological change.
To support the different phases of a policy making process aimed at changing land use, distinct types of land use studies are required. This paper focuses on exploratory land use studies and their role in the phase of formulating strategic policy objectives. Exploratory land use studies contribute to a transparent discussion on policy objectives by showing ultimate technical possibilities and consequences of imposing different priorities to agro-technical, food security, socio-economic and environmental objectives. A methodology is presented in which science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives under given values of exogenous variables (e.g. regarding population growth and requirements for agricultural produce). Land use scenarios are generated showing consequences of different priorities for objectives by using natural resources and technical possibilities in different ways. Applications of such an approach are given for the global, regional and farm level, each addressing specific questions and target groups. The paper focuses on the type of results these studies produce and their role in the societal and political debate on strategic land use policy and planning. It is concluded that if exploratory land use studies are carried out in true interaction with target groups, they may well contribute to the debate and learning on sustainable land use options and a purposeful identification of effective policy instruments in a next phase of the policy making process.
Food demand is estimated for the 15 major regions of the world for the year 2040. It is compared with the potential food production in these regions, which is derived from the area with soils suitable for cropping and grazing, the amount of irrigation water available, and the farming system used. All farmers are assumed to employ the best known techniques for sustainable farming. Two alternative production systems are explored: optimum productivity per unit of land, with intensive use of chemical inputs and energy to produce top yields (‘HEI’), and agriculture in which environmental damage per unit area is minimised (‘LEI’). In the latter system, legumes provide all nitrogen, agriculture is more diverse, and hectare yields are lower. Farming could occur at a smaller scale than in HEI-f arming, with strong integration of arable farming and animal husbandry, but these aspects play no role in this study.
A Dairy Farming Model was developed to screen the potentials for development of dairy farming on sandy soils in the Netherlands with respect to environmental, agro-technical and economic demands. The Dairy Farming Model consists of technical coefficient generators (TGC models) and an interactive multiple goal linear programming model (IMGLP model). The TCG models have been used to quantify input-output coefficients for a wide range of production techniques for grass, maize, fodder beet and milk. The results of the TCG models have been used in the IMGLP model, that optimizes the set of production techniques with respect to the goals defined.The model has been applied to a fictitious region with sandy soils. The analysis shows that dairy farming can meet both economic and environmental goals, as set by the government for the year 2000. However, this requires a reduction in labour income. Many different dairy farming systems are possible. A few general characteristics are: low N application on grazed grassland, a large proportion of the animals housed in low-emission stables and a substantial part of the concentrates produced in the region itself,Application of the Dairy Farming Model to the situation at the experimental dairy farm 'De Marke' has shown that the model is suited for exploring the opportunities for the development of dairy farming at a specific location, provided it can be initialized for that situation. Initial farm lay-out and measures taken at 'De Marke' have been evaluated.
Definitions and concepts of production ecology are presented as a basis for development of alternative production technologies characterized by their input-output combinations. With these concepts the relative importance of several growth factors and inputs is investigated to explain actual yield levels and resource-use efficiencies. Differences between potential and actual levels are analyzed to open ways for improved production technologies. The basis of the analysis is knowledge of basic physical, chemical, physiological and ecological processes at soil, field and crop level. New production technologies and their input-output combinations can be used in studies aimed at the exploration of options for sustainable agricultural production systems and land use. The concepts allow a systematic analysis and quantification of input-output combinations and clearly discriminate between bio-physical possibilities and socio-economic constraints and objectives. They help in defining objectives and means for agricultural production and land use, and may be valuable as aids to communication between various disciplines involved in studying the possibility and feasibility of future production technologies and land use options. The concepts production level, physical environment, target-oriented approach, production technique, production activity, and production orientation are applied to identify new technologies and production systems at various levels of scale, each requiring different types of information. In this paper some examples of applications are given at field, farm and at regional level.
"Stellingen" inserted. Thesis (doctoral)--Landbouwuniversiteit te Wageningen, 1995. Includes bibliographical references (p. 101-111).
Agriculture in the European Community is going through a phase of accelerating changes that calls for major decisions. The continued increase in production per unit of land area and per unit of livestock, due to improved production circumstances, better cultivation methods and external inputs, has led to significant increases in agricultural productivity. Abundant use of fertilizers and pesticides in some regions has created considerable negative environmental side effects, whereas in other regions, under-use of external inputs has created environmental problems of another nature, such as erosion. Increase in productivity per unit of area will continue during the coming decades, as the gap between potential and actual yields remains very big and the efficiency of use of external inputs is generally greater at high than at low production levels. However, the production surpluses in the EC create budgetary problems for the EC and a strong distortion of the world market for agricultural products. Decreasing prices of agricultural products create bankruptcy of farms in the rural structure and environment. The orientation of the Common Agriculture Policy and broadening of the objectives related to the rural environment need a clear and explicit formulation of options and a study of the possibilities and ways to achieve them. The Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy initiated such a study and developed various options for rural policy in which the preferences for a number of objectives related to agriculture and rural development are made explicit, and their consequences for land use are shown. Land use is chosen as the central theme because through changes in land use all other changes can be linked to each other. A qualitative and quantitative land evaluation is used to demonstrate the upper bounds for agricultural and forestry production.
Trajectories over time of nitrogen use and yield show that the fertilizer is used as efficiently at the high end of the yield range, as at the low end. Apparently, any decrease in marginal returns as predicted by the law of diminishing returns is more or less compensated by the benefits of other technological changes. Main processes that govern such opposing trends are analyzed in this paper to contribute towards more efficient use of resources in agriculture. The analyses elaborate on the optimum law of Liebscher, formulated at the end of the 19th century. This law states that a production factor which is in minimum supply contributes more to production, the closer other production factors are to their optimum. With some reservations regarding the control of pests, diseases and weeds, this law is fully confirmed. Accordingly, no production resource is used less efficiently and most production resources are used more efficiently with increasing yield level due to further optimizing of growing conditions. Whether external means of production are used at all depends of course on their price, but as soon as the farmer can afford them, they should be used in such a way that the production possibilities of all other available resources are fully exploited. It thus appears that with further optimizing of the growing conditions an increasing number of inputs gradually lose their variable character and the number of fixed operations on the farm increase. This makes more and more inputs not a variable cost element, but a complementary cost element of the decision to farm a piece of land. Therefore strategic research that is to serve both agriculture and its environment should not be so much directed towards the search for marginal returns of variable resources, as towards the search for the minimum of each production resource that is needed to allow maximum utilization of all other resources.
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