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Climate change and vector-borne diseases. A global modelling perspective.
... Kenya, like many other regions, is largely affected by VBDs such as malaria, dengue fever and Rift Valley fever (Ondiba, 2018;Githeko, 2024;Blaylock et al., 2011). Climate change has been implicated in the changing patterns of these diseases, influencing the distribution and transmission dynamics of their respective vectors (Martens et al., 1995;Sutherst, 2004;Parham et al., 2015). For example, rising temperatures and altered rainfall patterns can create favorable breeding conditions for mosquitoes, leading to increased malaria transmission in previously non-endemic areas (Kimuyu, 2021). ...
... As is well known, mosquito reproduction is subjected to temperature -a temperature vary from 12 to 31 • C decreases the number of days needed for reproduction from 65 to 7.3 days [8]. The spore formation of the parasites in mosquito is finished within 55 days at 16 • C and reduced to 7 days at 28 • C [9]. Climate change will shift from low latitude areas to areas where the population has not yet developed immunity to malaria, thereby affecting the epidemic patterns of the disease [10,11]. ...
A significant proportion of malaria infections in humans exhibit no symptoms, but it is a reservoir for maintaining malaria transmission. A time periodic reaction-diffusion model for malaria spread is introduced in this paper, incorporating spatial heterogeneity, incubation periods, symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers. This paper introduces the concept of the basic reproduction number R0\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\mathcal {R}_{0}$$\end{document}, which is defined as the spectral radius of the next generation operator, and we present some preliminary results by elementary analysis. The threshold dynamic behavior analysis shows that when R0<1\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\mathcal {R}_{0}<1$$\end{document}, the disease is extinct, and when R0>1\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\mathcal {R}_{0}>1$$\end{document}, the disease is persistent. We investigate the case of constant system parameters, focusing on the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free steady state when R0=1\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\mathcal {R}_{0}=1$$\end{document}. In the numerical simulation section, we validate the theoretical results obtained, and then use elasticity analysis methods to explore the influence of parameters on the output solution. In addition, sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number under homogeneous conditions indicates direction of controlling malaria transmission. And several control measures are evaluated in the following steps.
... Several species of snails were reported that cause the transmission of schistosomiasis in mankind and in domestic animals around the globe which are directly or indirectly linked with a change in the climate. The range of human schistosomiasis increases with temperature increases but reduces transmission in those areas where already occurred (Martens et al., 1995). Northward in possible range for Schistosoma japonicum in China over the next few decades using Oncomelania hupensis and Schistosoma japonicum at the minimum requirement of temperature (Zhou et al., 2008;Nijhof et al., 2001). ...
... The main pathogens and the probability of changes in their distribution due to changing climate have been assessed by Leovinsohn (1994), WHO (1994), Martens (1995), McMichael and Bundy (1996), Patz et al. (1996) amongst others. Through this assessment and classification, the environmental spreading of malaria is probable to be affected through changing climate. ...
Climate change is a “threat multiplier and a prime cause of universal threat to health in the 21st century, including 4th industrial revolution. The health effects of climate change will increase dramatically over the next few years and pose a risk to human life and the well-being of billions of people. As we all know, the milieu is fundamental to our sustained earth survival and environmental changes (natural and artificial) affect it either to the benefit or detriment of humans. Climate change is one of such changes in the physical environment which has grave consequences for the existence of mankind. Climate change is interestingly, no longer a speculative subject. There is a good international scientific consensus existing to show that this phenomenon is real and if recent global warming movements continue, temperature rise, ocean levels and more frequently weather conditions that is extreme (storms, heat-waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, etc.) may perhaps cause severe food shortages, loss of shelter, water, livelihoods, extinction of flora and fauna species. In the recent past, the earth has witnessed devastating weather-related events in different portions of the globe including hurricanes (e.g., Katrina and Rita in USA), tsunamis, typhoons, flooding especially in the Asian Continent, wild fires especially in Australia, USA, etc. Currently, the on-going flood incident in Pakistan that has so far claimed about 1,600 lives and rendered another four million people homeless is a sad reminder of the ugly and devastating consequences of global warming on the environment. There is no gainsaying the fact that humankind is paying dearly for the massive alterations in the environment that have induced changes in climate. This is because of frequent incidence of changes in climate related disasters in the world today. There is hardly any month that passes without an incident occurring in one part of the globe or another since the advent of the 21st century. Changes in climate has significant and potentially devastating health consequences, whether through direct actions (e.g., deaths resulting from heat wave and weather disasters) or disruption of complex biological methods (e.g., changes in infectious diseases patterns, supplies in fresh water and production of food).The report of the fourth assessment of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have globally submitted that “it is estimated that the health of millions of people is affected, for instance, malnutrition increases; deaths increase, diseases and injury; burden of increase diarrheal diseases; frequency of increased cardio-respiratory diseases caused by high levels of ground-level ozone in cities due to climate change; besides altered spatial distribution of some communicable diseases”. The association amongst changes in climate, its drivers, systemic effects, health and socioeconomic growth, mitigation and adaptation has been specified.
... Several species of snails were reported that cause the transmission of schistosomiasis in mankind and in domestic animals around the globe which are directly or indirectly linked with a change in the climate. The range of human schistosomiasis increases with temperature increases but reduces transmission in those areas where already occurred (Martens et al., 1995). Northward in possible range for Schistosoma japonicum in China over the next few decades using Oncomelania hupensis and Schistosoma japonicum at the minimum requirement of temperature (Zhou et al., 2008;Nijhof et al., 2001). ...
... Se esperan más olas de calor en regiones de todo el planeta, basadas en varios escenarios modelados (Lhotka, K. y F., 2018;Frölicher y Laufkötter, 2018;Guo y col., 2018). Además, hay muchas evidencias científicas que afirman que la variabilidad climática de las últimas décadas ha dado lugar a enfermedades transmitidas por vectores, como resultado de sequías e inundaciones, y ha producido muchos incendios (Martens y col., 1995;Githeko y col., 2000;Amiro y col., 2001;Flannigan y col., 2009;Moritz y col., 2012;El Universo, 2018). ...
Climate change has become one of the most important topics in each country’s government agendas. The current effects demand quicker actions in order to decrease the speed at which the global warming and climate is changing, which are commonly seen in global agreements to reduce pollution. However, the main changes to face and mitigate such phenomena depends on each country´s decision and not on global agreements as the causes are continent-wide although the effects and magnitudes may be local. One of the key components for an effective adaption and mitigation is the role that the population have over national decisions. For this reason, the level of awareness and knowledge about what is occurring in their surroundings vital, thus the importance of a correct information broadcast and education. For the aforementioned reasons, the current study compares the recent perception of a well-educated Ecuadorean community regarding the climate change worldwide and in Ecuador with the scientific evidence and historical facts, and how it affects its vulnerability to the climate change effects.
... In years past, the considerable differences in the distribution of the Bulinus species in certain areas were observed to depend on the amount of rainfall, the periods of dry and rainy seasons, as well as the intervals between these seasons [70]. During prolonged dry periods, there is an observable 'dry-out' in the natural habitats of snails, which may, in turn, result in the death of those that host the parasite [57]. ...
In the next century, global warming, due to changes in climatic factors, is expected to have an enormous influence on the interactions between pathogens and their hosts. Over the years, the rate at which vector-borne diseases and their transmission dynamics modify and develop has been shown to be highly dependent to a certain extent on changes in temperature and geographical distribution. Schistosomiasis has been recognized as a tropical and neglected vector-borne disease whose rate of infection has been predicted to be elevated worldwide, especially in sub-Saharan Africa; the region currently with the highest proportion of people at risk, due to changes in climate. This review not only suggests the need to develop an efficient and effective model that will predict Schistosoma spp. population dynamics but seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of several current control strategies. The design of a framework model to predict and accommodate the future incidence of schistosomiasis in human population dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa is proposed. The impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission as well as the distribution of several freshwater snails responsible for the transmission of Schistosoma parasites in the region is also reviewed. Lastly, this article advocates for modelling several control mechanisms for schistosomiasis in sub-Saharan Africa so as to tackle the re-infection of the disease, even after treating infected people with praziquantel, the first-line treatment drug for schistosomiasis.
... The extreme El Niño events such as those in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 were responsible for several natural disasters. [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11] The anomalous climatic conditions associated with extreme El Niño events caused worldwide environmental disruptions including in South America (SA). In SA, the Amazon and Northeast Brazil experienced severe droughts and catastrophic floods occurred in Peru. ...
declared this as a public health emergency of international concern. The temperature conditions related to extreme El Niño of 2015-16 were exceptionally favorable for ZIKV spreading in South America. For the recent spreading of ZIKV, in Americas, Northeast Brazil was the starting point and it was associated with the extreme El Niño 2015-16. Paz and Semenza found that there is a striking overlap when the regions with extreme climatic conditions in 1 month are juxtaposed with the geographic distribution of ZIKV in subsequent months. They found that the unique climatic conditions generated by extreme El Niño of 2015-16 are congenial for the dispersal of ZIKV in the Americas. This is not a just coincidence and many authors noted that ZIKV vector Aedes aegypti is strongly dependent on surface climate conditions that occur during extreme El Niño events. Recently a study found that extreme El Niño events will double in future in response to greenhouse warming. Also it was discovered that the increase of extreme El Niño frequency will continue long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization. We analyze future extreme El Niño events along with associated surface temperatures and calculated the ZIKV quantitatively in future extreme El Niño events and found that large parts of South America are highly favorable for the spread of the disease. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2019) 2:4 ; https://doi.
Background: Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in temperate zones and a growing public health threat in the US. Tick life cycles and disease transmission are highly sensitive to climatic conditions but determining the impact of climate change on Lyme disease burden has been challenging due to the complex ecology of the disease and the presence of multiple, interacting drivers of transmission. Objectives: We estimated the impact of prior temperature and precipitation conditions on US Lyme disease incidence and predicted the effect of future climate change on disease. Methods: We incorporated 17 years of annual, county-level Lyme disease case data in a panel data statistical modeling approach to investigate prior effects of climate change on disease while controlling for other putative drivers. We then used these climate-disease relationships to forecast Lyme disease cases using CMIP5 global climate models and two potential climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Results: We find that climate is a key driver of Lyme disease incidence across the US, but the relevant climate variables and their effect sizes vary strongly between regions, with larger effects apparent in the Northeast and Midwest where Lyme disease incidence has recently increased most substantially. In both of these regions, key climate predictors included winter temperatures, spring precipitation, dry summer weather, and temperature variability. Further, we predict that total US Lyme disease incidence will increase significantly by 2100 under a moderate emissions scenario, with nearly all of the additional cases occurring in the Northeast and Midwest. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate a regionally-variable and nuanced relationship between climate change and Lyme disease and highlight the need for improved preparedness and public health interventions in endemic regions to minimize the impact of further climate change-induced increases in Lyme disease burden.
In the present study, the prevalence of Anaplasma species in diary animals from India and World was estimated using meta-analysis. Based on systematic review of studies on Anaplasma species from India [35] and World [66] from 1988 to 2017 and 1978–2017, respectively, using online databases and offline literatures, meta-analysis using meta package in R-Software was done. Prevalence of Anaplasma species in India and World were 11% [95% level, Confidence Interval[CI] 7–16%, Prediction Interval[PI] 1–69%] and 39% [95% level, CI 30–49%, PI 2–95%], and these were obtained using 31,117 and 46,365 samples, respectively. Period-wise analysis revealed high Anaplasma species prevalence before 2011 for India and the World than from 2011 through 2017. Zone-wise prevalence indicated high prevalence in Central zone [61%] and low in West and South zones [6%] in India, and continent-wise, it was high in South America [82%]. The studies used methods including blood smear examination, serology and nucleic acid-based techniques and revealed high prevalence in serology for India [34%] and World [46%], low prevalence by blood smear for India [7%] and World [21%], but higher sensitivity using nucleic acid-based techniques. Species-wise indicated higher prevalence in cattle [12%] than buffaloes [2%] in India. Prevalence was lower in India compared to the World and higher in South America. Overall, anaplasmosis causes low productivity in dairy animals and economic loss to dairy farmers. Hence, there is a need to control Anaplasma infections in high risk areas by adopting effective therapeutic and preventive measures so as to improve the economic benefits in dairy farming.
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