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Supplemental Data for A 1,470-Year Astronomical
Cycle and Its Effect on Earth’s Climate
The following is supplemental data for A 1,470-Year Astronomical Cycle and Its Effect on
Earth’s Climate, DOI: 10.33140/JMSRO.06.06.01 . This data confirms that the 1,470 year cycle
is currently warming the Earth.
1. Earth’s 1,470-year rapid warming peaks correlate with Earth’s
rotation adjustments.
Note: An increase in Earth’s rotation causes a decrease in Length of Day (LOD).
A study [31] found that LOD normally increases at 1.78 ms per century, but near the end of each
1,470-year cycle the LOD increase stops for several hundred years (horizontal part of
extrapolated long-term trend (Figure 9).
Or saying that in rotation terms, Earth’s rotation is accelerated and stops LOD changes during
the horizontal part of each 1,470-year cycle. During this horizontal part, angular momentum
from the sun and planets torques the Earth to accelerate Earth’s rotation (stop LOD increases).
Earth’s rotational momentum resists that rotation accelertion (torque) and that causes massive
heat from friction in the Earth, especially in Greenland and Arctic Region.
The start of rapid temperature increases (black arrows) and peak temperatures (red dots) of the
1,470-year cycle correlate with these adjustments of Earth’s rotation. The acceleration of rotation
lasts for less than 25% of the 1,470-year cycle. It takes a while for the heat from the acceleration
to build up inside the Earth enough to reach the surface and affect the soil and air temperatures.
The 1,470-year cycle has occurred for 50,000 years or more (that is as far back as the Greenland
ice core temperature records go). Historical data suggests that the current warming should end
near the year 2060.
The amplitude of the rapid warming has varied from 13.5 °C to 0 °C. The amplitude varies,
possibly caused by the amount of Earth rotation adjustment needed and air temperatures.
Figure 9: Length of day [31]. The dotted red line is the average measured rate of change in the lod,
+1.78±0.03 ms cy−1, which is equivalent to an acceleration of −4.7±0.1×10−22 rad s−2. The shaded grey
area shows the change expected on the basis of tidal friction, +2.3±0.1 ms cy−1, equivalent to −6.2±0.4×
10−22 rad s−2. The black curve is the slope on the spline fit. The green-dashed curve is the extrapolation of
the oscillation. Note: Red dots (1,470-year cycle peak temperature year) and black arrows (start of rapid
warming) have been added to the referenced figure.
2. Soil and oceans are heating faster than the air
Soil temperatures are currently rising faster than air temperatures. This is probably caused by an
increase in geothermal heat from the 1,470–year cycle. The following are three soil temperature
studies that have been done.
A European study [34] from 1996 to 2021, found that soil hot extremes are increasing
0.7 °C per decade faster than air hot extremes in intensity and twice as fast as air hot
extremes in frequency on average over Central Europe (Figure 10), based on station data.
Soil hot extremes are intensifying and becoming more frequent than air hot extremes at
local and regional scales over Europe, particularly over Central Europe. This suggests
that heat is coming from inside the earth.
Fig. 10: TX7d trends based on air and soil temperatures [34] from 1996 to 2021 over Europe. a–c, From
left to right, trend in TX7d based on air (TX7dAir) and soil temperatures (TX7dSoil), the difference between
absolute values of trends in soil and air (Abs. TX7dSoil − TX7dAir), and the difference between trends
where both trends are positive (Incr. TX7dSoil − TX7dAir). The TX7d index is defined as the mean value of
daily maximum temperatures over the hottest week per year. Results are obtained from meteorological
stations (a), a combination of CM SAF satellite data and Earth observations (E-OBS gridded dataset) (b)
and the ERA5Land re-analysis (c). Dots indicate areas with significant trends above the 90% confidence
level.
A China study [35], averaged across all 360 stations, found that annual surface soil
temperature increased by 1.90 °C over the 50-year interval of the study (Figure 11),
equivalent to an annual increase of 0.038 °C/y. This increase was 31% greater than the
corresponding change in air temperature (1.45 °C in total, 0.029 °C/y). In general,
increases were greater in the cooler northern and western regions. This suggests that the
heat is coming from geothermal, and not CO2 and the sun.
Figure 11: Spatial and seasonal patterns of changes in soil surface temperatures [35] during 1962–2011
(°C) at 360 observational stations in China. The color of the circles indicates the magnitude of change.
Solid circles with point indicate significance level of p < 0.05, whereas solid circles are p > 0.05. Maps in
this figure were generated though the ArcGIS 9.3 software provided Environmental Systems Research
Institute (http://www.esri.com).
A German study [36], examined long-term records in ST (soil temperature) by a trend
decomposition procedure from eleven stations in western Germany starting from earliest
in 1951 until 2018 (Figure 12). In addition to ST data from multiple depths (5, 10, 20, 50,
and 100 cm), various meteorological variables were measured and included in the
multivariate statistical analysis to explain spatiotemporal trends in soil warming. The
study found a significant positive increase in temperature was more pronounced for ST
(1.76 ± 0.59 °C) compared with air temperature (AT; 1.35 ± 0.35 °C) among all study
sites.
Figure 12: Soil temperature increase, 1951 - 2018 [36]. Location of the study sites in North Rhine-
Westphalia with temperature increase in 100-cm soil depth.
The oceans are also warming. A study found that there are ocean bottom heat waves on
continental shelves [37]. The intensity and duration of these “bottom MHWs (marine heat
waves)” vary strongly with ocean bottom depth, can be more intense and persist longer than
surface MHWs, and most importantly, can exist without a clear surface signature. These MHWs
could be caused by geothermal heat from the 1,470-year cycle.
3. Earthquakes are increasing
A study [32] found there are more earthquakes occurring recently (Figure 13). This could be a
result of torque from the 1,470 year cycle that accelerates the rotation of the Earth.
Figure 13: Timeseries of earthquakes [32] with M = 5 or greater from 1900 to April 2011.
4. Temperature is not correlated with CO2
The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) frequently shows that temperature
correlates with CO2 for the last 1,000 years as proof that CO2 is causing the warming. But if you
extend that to the last 800,000 years, it shows that the temperature and CO2 lines do not correlate
or fit (Figure 14). If the lines don’t fit, then you must acquit CO2. CO2 is not guilty of causing
climate change. CO2 does not control Earth’s temperature. The IPCC has not demonstrated any
scientific evidence that CO2 controls Earth’s temperature (they only have unproven theories).
Figure 14. Antarctica Temperature and Carbon Dioxide from EPICA Dome C Ice Cores [25,26]. Current
temperature and CO2 matched at small circle at far right. CO2 (dashed thin line). Temperature (solid
line). Note: NOAA datasets updated to include 2019 data.
5. Amount of geothermal heat flux recently flowing into the Arctic.
Observing historical data is the best method to determine feasibility of the 1,470-year cycle
causing the Earth’s current warming cycle. A study [24] found that it is very feasible (Figure 15).
170
220
270
320
370
420
-11
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
-1 99 199 299 399 499 599 699 799
CO2 (ppm)
Temperature Anomaly (°C)
Year BP (in thousands before present)
Figure15. Geothermal heat flux recently flowing into the Arctic Ocean [24]. Values are positive for Arctic
inflow.
Gateway Most Recent Heat Flux (TW)
Barents Sea Opening 50 to 70
Barents Sea Exit 4
Fram Strait 36 +/- 6
Bering Strait 10 to 20
Dais Strait 20 +/- 9
Total Heat Flux Flow into Arctic 120 to 150 +/- 32
Where there were dual measurements, the geothermal heat flux is larger in the more recent
reading. There is more than enough heat flux flowing into the Arctic to raise global temperature
by 1.8°C.
This geothermal heat flux is probably caused by friction from accelerating Earth’s rotation at the
end of the 1,470-year cycle.
6. Theoretical maximum amount of angular momentum energy
converted per 1,470-year cycle.
The calculation of the amount of rotational angular momentum converted to energy to slow
Earth’s LOD changes (increase Earth’s rotation) is conservatively based on 3 ms change in
length of day during 229 years (229 years x365 days x 24 hours x 60 minutes x 60 seconds x
1000 ms = 7.22174x1012 ms) of the warming part of the 1,470-year cycle:
To calculate the theoretical maximum amount of geothermal heat flux from this energy is:
This is a massive amount of energy. Most of the energy is used to move Earth’s tectonic plates
and creates earthquakes. Probably only a small amount is converted to heat flux from friction in
the Earth. Of that amount, it is not possible to calculate the geothermal heat flux that is injected
into the oceans because it is not measured and there are too many unknowns.
Figure 15 shows the geothermal heat flux into the Arctic.
7. Heat flux needed to increase global temperature by 1.8°C since the
year 1791.
It would require an increase of approximately 14.7 terawatts of global geothermal heat flux to
increase global temperatures by 1.8°C. The calculation is based on warming the atmosphere and
top 1% of the oceans by 1.8°C from year 1791 to 2020 (229 years or 7.22669x109 seconds). The
global estimate is simplified and approximate because it assumes that all other heat flow
parameters are steady state.
Per global meter2 = 28.82 milliwatts / meter2
8. A 4-year astronomical cycle also affect Earth’s climate
A study [38] found that Earth’s LOD / short-term rotation adjustments are coherent with El-Niño
climate cycles (Figure 16).
Figure 16. MEI.v2 time-series [38] from 1st January 1979 to 1st April 2022,
monthly values (The values are dimensionless). The Multi-Variate ENSO Index version 2 (MEI.v2) is
computed using five different parameters, namely, sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature
(SST), surface zonal winds (U), surface meridional winds (V), and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over
the tropical Pacific basin (30ıS–30ıN and 100ıE–70ıW).
The study proves that Earth’s rotation adjustments affect Earth’s climate. The El-Niño warming
cycle averages 4-years and the warming part is approximately 1-year (25%). The power of the
El-Niño warming varies. The 25% and warming power variance of the 4-year cycles are similar
to the 1,470-year cycles.
The cause of the 4-year cycle is unknown, but it could be caused by Earth’s rotation being
realigned with Earth’s orbit every 4-years to their starting point (1 year orbit = 365 ¼ day
rotations, so they conjunct every 4 years). At that conjunction, angular momentum from the Sun
probably readjusts Earth’s rotation to the proper amount.
9. Discussion
This supplemental data confirms that the 1,470 year astronomical cycle is causing geothermal
heat in the Earth that is currently warming the soil and air, and is melting ice in Polar Regions. It
also shows that CO2 does not control temperature on Earth. Climate change is just a natural
occurrence that is caused by astronomical cycles.
References:
24. Beszczynska-Möller, A., Woodgate, R. A., Lee, C., Melling, H., & Karcher, M. (2011). A synthesis of
exchanges through the main oceanic gateways to the Arctic Ocean. Oceanography, 24(3), 82-99.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2011.59
25. Jouzel, J., et al. (2007). EPICA Dome C Ice Core 800KYr Deuterium Data and Temperature Estimates.
IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2007-091. NOAA/NCDC
Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. Dataset accessed at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-
search/?dataTypeId=7
26. Lüthi, D., Le Floch, M., & Bereiter, B. (2008). EPICA Dome C Ice Core 800KYr Carbon Dioxide Data.
IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series, # 2008-055. NOAA/NCDC
Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. Dataset accessed at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-
search/?dataTypeId=7
31. Stephenson FR, Morrison LV, Hohenkerk CY. (2016). Measurement of the Earth’s rotation: 720 BC to
AD 2015.Proc. R. Soc. A 472: 20160404. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2016.0404
32. Ocean (2011). Graph of magnitude 5 or greater earthquakes from 1900- April 2011. Smithonian.
https://ocean.si.edu/planet-ocean/seafloor/graph-magnitude-5-or-greater-earthquakes-1900-april-
2011
33. Jouzel, J., et al. (2007). EPICA Dome C Ice Core 800KYr Deuterium Data and Temperature Estimates.
Dataset accessed at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/?dataTypeId=7
34. García-García, A., Cuesta-Valero, F.J., Miralles, D.G. et al. Soil heat extremes can outpace air
temperature extremes. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13, 1237–1241 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-
01812-3
35. Zhang, H. et al. Rising soil temperature in China and its potential ecological impact. Sci. Rep. 6,
35530. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep35530 (2016)
36. Dorau, K., Bamminger, C., Koch, D. et al. Evidences of soil warming from long-term trends (1951–
2018) in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Climatic Change 170, 9 (2022).
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03293-9
37. Amaya, D.J., Jacox, M.G., Alexander, M.A. et al. Bottom marine heatwaves along the continental
shelves of North America. Nat Commun 14, 1038 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36567-0
38. Raut S., et al. Investigating the Relationship Between Length of Day and El-Niño Using Wavelet
Coherence Method. Geodesy for a Sustainable Earth, 154, 253-258 (2023).
https://doi.org/10.1007/1345_2022_167