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Assessment of the Factors Responsible for Building Collapse in Nigeria

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Abstract

Building collapse has been one of the national disasters in Nigeria as all the geo-political zones of the country have experienced the disaster in the last three decades. This menace has been a serious challenge to the government, non-governmental organisations and professional bodies. The date, locations, possible causes of the building collapse were derived from journals and newsletters of Nigeria Building Research and Regulation Institute (NBRRI). Geo-Spatial distribution of collapsed building was done using trend analysis. GWR was used to find the coefficient of lives that may be lost over a period of fifty years, if the menace is not controlled. Spearman order of correlation and linear regression analyses were performed to show the relationship between the collapsed building and casualties involved. The result shows that structural failure (32%) was a major factor causing building collapse in Nigeria, while 28% of cases of building collapse were not reported. Results also showed a strong correlation coefficient between building collapse and lives lost (rs of 0.8286). This also correlates with the result derived from geographically weighted regression analysis with Sigma of 0.875666 and the residual square of 0.996359. The study, therefore, concludes that structural failures are the major factors responsible for building collapse in Nigeria. The research recommended that professional bodies and Standard Organization of Nigeria (SON) are to create awareness of the disaster and measures to control and mitigate it.
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Assessment of the Factors Responsible for Building
Collapse in Nigeria
1Aribilola Toba R; 2Bolarin Balogun O; 3Ehisienmhen Nicholas O; 4Aluma Collins C; 5Ezelobe Ogochukwu U; 6Philip
Mbaya; 7Odoh Evaristus. O; 8Animasahun-Oladimeji Rukayat; 9Adamu Mutiu. O; 10Akpan John Isemin; 11Hena
Charles B; 12Olaoluwa Idayat A; 13Olubunmi Taiye Sunday; 14Ademu Ali; 15Obimba Ogechukwu Harry; 16Olugboye
Tosin David; 17Oche John Ochonu; 18Ogunmola Olaitan Pius; 19Hassan Ahmad A, 20Onyebuchi Chinedum Chimezie,
21Ashiru Kolawole Saheed;
1-21Advanced Space Technology Application Laboratory (ASTAL); National Space Research and Development
Agency, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria;
Centre for Space Science Technology Education English (CSSTE-E), OAU Campus, Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria
Abstract: Building collapse has been one of the national
disasters in Nigeria as all the geo-political zones of the country
have experienced the disaster in the last three decades. This
menace has been a serious challenge to the government, non-
governmental organisations and professional bodies.
The date, locations, possible causes of the building collapse
were derived from journals and newsletters of Nigeria Building
Research and Regulation Institute (NBRRI). Geo-Spatial
distribution of collapsed building was done using trend
analysis. GWR was used to find the coefficient of lives that
may be lost over a period of fifty years, if the menace is not
controlled. Spearman order of correlation and linear regression
analyses were performed to show the relationship between the
collapsed building and casualties involved.
The result shows that structural failure (32%) was a major
factor causing building collapse in Nigeria, while 28% of cases
of building collapse were not reported. Results also showed a
strong correlation coefficient between building collapse and
lives lost (rs of 0.8286). This also correlates with the result
derived from geographically weighted regression analysis with
Sigma of 0.875666 and the residual square of 0.996359.
The study, therefore, concludes that structural failures are the
major factors responsible for building collapse in Nigeria. The
research recommended that professional bodies and Standard
Organization of Nigeria (SON) are to create awareness of the
disaster and measures to control and mitigate it.
Keywords: Assessment, Factors, Buildings, Collapse, Nigeria
I. INTRODUCTION
Goal eleven of Sustainable Development Goals is about
sustainable cities and communities. It is well known that a city
is incomplete without the proper construction of buildings
which serve residential, commercial or industrial purposes.
Buildings and the provision of safe and affordable homes are
major contributors to sustainable development and through the
centuries, these have been important aspects of the socio-
economic development of humans. However, the contribution
of buildings to Nigeria's development has not yielded the
desired potentials because of failed projects and more recently
their poor functional performance. (Abimbola et al, 2012).
Building collapse, though a common phenomenon all over the
world, is more unbridled and devastating in the developing
countries particularly in Nigeria (Ibrahim, 2013). Building
collapse is a phenomenon experienced by the building when
the building members failed to perform its structural duties
(Fagbenle, et al 2010). Fagbenle (2010) noted that "building
collapse occurs when the structural frame of a building breaks
up when the loads on it are beyond its carrying capacity".
These loads can be live loads, wind loads or dead loads that are
not being catered for during the analysis and design of such
buildings.
Buildings are designed to support certain loads without
deformation. The loads can be live loads which are movable
loads and the dead load which is the load of the building itself.
Failure in a building can be described as the inability of the
building components to perform its structural capacity that is
normally expected or required of those components to carry
before the building finally collapsed. Building failure is an
unacceptable difference between expected and observed
performance in a building component when that component
can no longer be relied upon to fulfil its principal functions.
Limited deflection on a floor which causes a certain amount of
cracking/distortions in partitions could be considered a defect
but not a failure. Whereas excessive deflection resulting in
serious damage to partitions, ceilings and floor finishes could
be referred to as a failure, but sudden dislocation or giving
away of a structure is classified as building collapse (Abimbola
et al., 2012).
Though building collapse is not peculiar to Nigeria, the trend in
the country is becoming quite worrisome and a source of
concern to stakeholders. According to Ayedun et al (2012), the
spate and frequency of occurrence have become a major source
of concern not only to the governments but to all meaning
Nigerians and most especially the stakeholders in the building
industry as the magnitude of the incidents are becoming very
unprecedented. That building collapse incidence is still
regularly occurring despite the fact that there has been the
increasing diffusion of engineering knowledge over the years
have brought to question whether these stakeholders have
critically examined the reasons for building failure and the
roles they can play or the strategies they can articulate that
would help to arrest the incidents. This seeming gap portends
the reason for this study;thus, this research examines the spatial
distribution of the building collapse in Nigeria with the desire
to finding out the factors responsible for the building collapse,
casualties involved and the possible ways of arresting the
situations.
In the building industry today, building collapse has been one
of the major problems faced by both private and public
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developers, whether for personal use or for investment
purposes. This has posed a very serious challenge to people in
building industry, government and individuals who are into
property development in the country. Several factors have been
associated with building collapse some of which are
negligence, greed, deficient foundations, inadequate steel
reinforcement,hasty construction, no soil test, poor supervision
and non-adherence to building codes (Ede, 2010).
Ayinnuola and Olalusi (2004) specifically stated that building
collapse in Nigeria is attributed to 50% design fault, 40%
construction fault and 10% product failure. Ede (2010) and
Olagunju (2011) emphasised the importance of post-
construction maintenance of a building. They also noted that
lack of proper maintenance culture contributes to the crisis of
building collapse in Nigeria. This was also supported by
Fagbenle et al., (2010), Olagunju, Aremu and Oladele (2013)
and Babalola (2015).
Many of the aforementioned studies specifically studied the
major causes of building collapse without considering the
number of lives that may be lost if the menace is not reduced.
Building collapse has caused the loss of many lives and
property. However, the relationship between loss of lives and
property has not been geo-statistical and geographically
established.
AIM
The aim of this work is to assess the factors responsible for
building collapse in Nigeria.
OBJECTIVE
i. Map building collapse in Nigeria;
ii. Assess the factors leading to building collapse in
Nigeria; and,
iii. Determine the number of casualties involved and
forecast the relationship between building collapse
and lives lost.
II. STUDY AREA
Nigeria is a sub-Saharan African country, which is located
between latitude 4oN to 12oN and longitude 4oE to 14oE. It is
bordered by the Niger Republic and the Chad Republic in the
North and the Atlantic Ocean in the south. It is bounded by
Benin Republic in the west and Cameroon in the east. Her
largest city is Lagos which is the home of her industrial and
commercial activities. It is divided into six geo-political zones.
Nigeria has the highest population in Africa with an estimated
190 million people. Its topography is mostly plain in the north
with plateau and hills in the centre of the country. The south is
mostly high and low land with tropical rain forest.
III. METHODOGY
A. Materials
The materials used for this research work were extracted from
secondary data of building collapse in Nigeria from 1986 to
2016 (Omineru et al, (2016): An Analysis of Building
Collapse in Nigeria (1971-2016): Challenges for Stakeholders;
Abimbola O. W. (2012): Contemporary Issues in Building
Collapse and Its Implications for Sustainable Development;
NBRRI (2012). “Curbing the incidences of building collapse in
Nigeria”; NBRRI Proceedings of National Technical Workshop
on Building Collapse in Nigeria. NBRRI Report No. 29, Abuja.
NBRRI (2012). “Federal Government Committed to
Enforcement of Building Code”. NBRRI Newsletter 1(7).
NBRRI (2012). “NBRRI Organizes Training for Contractors”.
NBRRI Newsletter 1(9)). These data contain the date,
locations of the building collapse, possible causes of the
building collapse and the number of casualties involved in the
building collapse.
Google Earth was used to get the relative coordinate of the
locations of the collapsed building. ESRI ArcGIS 10.4 was
used for data analysis. Nigerian shapefile showing the Nigerian
boundary and Nigerian state was gotten from Cooperative
Information Network which was used to run the spatial
analysis of the data.
B. Methods
Mapping of Building Collapse in Nigeria
The locations of the building collapsed were extracted from
Google Earth as XY coordinates. The XY coordinates were
tabulated in Microsoft Excel and exported into ArcGIS as a
point layer and was further overlayed on the Nigeria shape file
to produce the maps of building collapse.
Factors Responsible for Building Collapse
From the data of the building collapsed, the factors that
responsible for building collapsed were tabulated in relation to
the frequency and percentage of occurrence and the result was
tabulated.
Casualties Involved and Determining the in the Collapse of
Building
From the table extracted, the year with the highest number of
casualty and number of the collapse was determined using
Spearman Rank Order of correlation analysis to determine the
correlation between the building collapse and the casualty.
rs = 1- (6Σd^2)/(N(N^2 -1)) - - - (1)
Where
rs is Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient
N is the number of scores
d is the sum of the difference in ranked squared
Likewise, linear regression analysis was used to project the
possible lives that may be lost if building collapse is not being
controlled.
Y = A + Bx
Where A = (ΣyΣx^2- ΣxΣxy)/(nΣx^2-(Σx)^2 ) and B = (nΣxy-
ΣxΣy)/(nΣx^2-(Σx)^2 )
Where
Y = Projected number of lives that would be lost
y = Dependent Variable = Number of lives lost
x = Independent Variable = Number of collapsed buildings
A = Slope and
B = Intercept of the linear curve or quotient of the variable x
Geographic Weighted Regression (GWR) analysis was carried
out to show the geographic regression map that predicts the
coefficient of lives that may become the casualty of building
collapse if the occurrence is not being corrected.
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Figure 3.1: Methodology flow diagram
IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
A. Results
1. Mapping of Building Collapse
Figure 4.1 shows the spatial distribution of building collapse in
Nigeria between 1986 to 2016.
Figure 4.2: Map of Nigeria showing classified building
collapse in Nigeria
Figure 4.3: Map showing casualty from building collapse in the
Nigerian state.
Figure 4.4: GWR map showing prediction of casualty from
building collapse.
Table 1: Result of GWR Analysis
Object
Id
Variable Name
Variable
Definition
1
Band With
2.02611
2
Residual
Squares
17.614079
3
Effective
Number
15.028846
4
Sigma
0.875666
5
AICc
117.009769
6
R2
0.996359
7
R2 Adjusted
0.994135
8
Dependent
Variable
0
NO_OF_
Collapse
9
Explanatory
Variable
1
NO_OF_CA
SUALTY
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2. Factors responsible for building collapse
Table 2: Frequency Distribution for Causes of Building
Collapse
S/NO
Cause
Frequency
Percentage
%
1
Excessive loading
3
1.39
2
Structural failure
58
26.85
3
Substandard materials
23
10.65
4
Faulty design
12
5.56
5
Inappropriate foundation
13
6.02
6
Carelessness
3
1.39
7
Heavy rain
10
4.63
8
Poor workmanship
13
6.02
9
Approval violation
7
3.24
10
Use of quacks
17
7.87
11
Geotechnical violation
2
0.93
12
Design violation
8
3.7
13
Regulations violation
4
1.85
14
Lack of maintenance
1
0.46
15
No reported cause
42
19.44
Total
216
100
Table 3: Summary of collapsed buildings and casualties
between 1986 and 2016 in Nigeria
Year
Number
of
collapses
Number
of lives
lost
% of
Collapse
Occurrence
1986 1990
15
144
10
1991 1995
20
112
13.33
1996 2000
24
175
16
2001 2005
21
241
14
2006 2010
29
358
19.33
2011 2016
41
285
27.33
Total
150
1315
100
rs = 1 6Σ𝑑 2
𝑁(𝑁2 1) - - - (1)
Where
rs= Spearman rank order correlation coefficient
1= unity for a perfect correlation
6= Constant Value
Σd²= 6 (sum of difference in rank squared)
N= 6 (number of scores)
Substituting the values into equation (1), we have:
rs = 1 6(6)
6(62 1)
rs = 1 36
6(36 1) = 1 0.1714 = 0.8286
Similarly, to forecast the numbers of collapse and casualties
that may occur in future, if nothing is done to prevent future
occurrence, the linear regression analysis was conducted on
these data, using equations 2(a, b &c) by substituting Table 4.0
into them.
S/No
Year
Collapse
(x)
Lives
lost
(y)
x2
xy
Projected
number
of Lives
Lost (Y)
1
1986
1990
15
144
225
2160
150.249
2
1991
1995
20
112
400
2240
184.704
3
1996
2000
24
175
576
4200
212.268
4
2001
2005
21
241
441
5061
191.595
5
2006
2010
29
358
841
10382
246.723
6
2011
2016
41
285
1681
11685
329.415
Total
150
1315
4164
35728
1314.954
Y = 𝐴 + 𝐵𝑥 - - - (2)
Where Y = Projected number of lives that would be lost y =
Dependent Variable = Number of lives lost x = Independent
Variable = Number of collapsed buildings A = Slope and B =
Intercept of the linear curve or quotient of the variable x
A = ΣyΣ𝑥 2−ΣxΣxy
𝑛Σ 𝑥 2(Σx)2
B = nΣxy −ΣxΣy
𝑛Σ 𝑥 2(Σx)2
A = (1315)(4164 )(150 )(35728 )
(6)(4164 )(150 )2 = 46.884
B =(6)(35728 )(150 )(1315 )
(6)(4164 )(150)2 = 6.891
Therefore, 𝑌 = 46.884 + 6.891𝑥 - - - (3) for the 5yrs
intervals. To account for the interval of 5 years in the table
above, we have
Y = 234.42 + 34.455x - - - (4)
For this linear relationship, if x = 50 yrs (i.e. 1986 to 2036), the
total number of lives to be lost
Y = 234.42 + 34.455(50) = 1957.17
DISCUSSION
The result shows that there is a heavy cluster of building
collapse in the southern part of the study area which includes
Lagos, Rivers and Oyo States polygon. It was also revealed
that Lagos has the highest building collapse in Nigeria with
the highest casualties as shown in Figure 4.2 and Figure 4.3
respectively.
Geographical weighted regression analysis shows the results
in figure 4.4 and table 1 that residual square of 17.614 which
is less than 50 indicates that the model fits to the study while
sigma 0.87566 which is less than 1 from the table signifies
that there is close relationship between the building collapse
and life lost as tested by Omineruet al (2010).
Moreover, R-Squared (R2) of 0.996359 shows that the
discrepancy between the model and the data has low
significance and shows that building collapse has a high effect
on the casualty.
From Table 2, structural failure (26.85%), use of substandard
materials (10.65%) and use of quacks (7.89%) were the chief
causes of building collapse in Nigeria from 1986 to 2016. A
huge chunk of the collapses had no reported cause (19.44%)
with structural failure taken the lead; these were in line with
the findings of Abimbola et al (2012). Least reported causes
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are lack of maintenance (0.46%), geotechnical violation
(0.93%), carelessness and excessive loading (1.39%) and
regulations violation (1.85%). Table 3 revealed that year range
2011 2016 (27.33%) had the most reported occurrence of
building collapse followed by 2006 2010 (19.33%) and
1996 2000 (16.99%). However, mortality due to building
collapse was worse in the period 2006 2010 with 358
casualties followed by 2011 2016 with 285 mortalities.
A positive rs = 0.8286 result from Spearman rank-order
correlation coefficient in table 4, is an indication of a strong
positive relationship between individual ranks obtained in the
number of collapsed buildings and the number of lives lost.
This practically means that, the higher the number of
collapsed buildings, the higher the lives lost and vice versa.
Likewise, in Table 5, the result of linear regression analyses
that forecast the future lives that may become the casualties
interpret that an approximate number of 1958 lives would be
lost in 50 years from 1986 to 2036 if the current situation is
not corrected; this is in line with Kadri, et al (2018).
CONCLUSION
The incidences of structural failures, substandard materials and
poor workmanship, use of quacks and approval violations have
influenced the frequency of the occurrence of building collapse
and the magnitude of the losses both in terms of lives and
properties. This research work revealed that all these constitute
54.63% of major factors leading to building collapse in
Nigeria. This study shows that of all six geo-political zones
and Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria, southern region
recorded the higher part of building collapse in the country
with Lagos State alone recorded 70 building collapse cases
between 1986 and 2016. This work also uses Geographic
Information System to show spatial distribution of areas where
building collapse is rampant in Nigeria using point future and
representing the value of numbers of building collapse in states
and the casualties. Using choropleth map, GWR model shows
that there is close relationship between building collapse and
the life lost with sigma value of less than 1 and shows the co-
efficient of prediction of the lives that may be lost in building
collapse per state.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Government
i. The Standard Organisation of Nigeria should
vigorously pursue all those in the production and
importation of substandard building materials and
bring them to justice.
ii. Ministry of Housing and Urban Development should
use the zoning approach to limit the number of floors
in the areas associated with very loose subsoil and
suspected geotechnical deficiency; it should even go
further to stipulate the type of foundation to be used.
iii. The state governments, through the appropriate
ministry, should, as a matter of urgency, streamline
the process of granting building plan approvals.
iv. A monitoring team should be set up under the
commissioner of Works and Housing to make a
regular visit to different construction sites with a view
of assessing how well contractors and supervisors
(consultant engineer and architect) play their roles.
v. State ministry in charge of building plan approval
should also ensure that the engineers supervising
building construction take the responsibility of
structural integrity and are properly documented
including taken main photographs.
vi. The engineer should as well be interviewed by a
professional colleague who should not be below the
rank of director or its equivalent in the relevant
ministry; this will forestall any impersonation, forgery
and denial in the future.
vii. The government should put in place a policy for
checking existing building periodically, every five to
ten years to ascertain their suitability for human
habitation.
viii. The local planning authority should concern itself
with only approval of buildings of two floors and any
floor higher than two floors should be done by the
state ministry of works.
Developers
i. Clients or developer will need to be circumspect in
the choice of a prime consultant to ensure they engage
competent prime consultants with integrity.
ii. Clients or developers should rely on professional
advice to engage the contractor to execute their
projects. This will not only ensure that the right
contractor gets the job but that it gets it done correctly
and on time.
iii. Developers should also endeavour to sign proper
contracts with both prime consultant and the
contractor, defining responsibilities and obligations.
Professional bodies
Professional bodies like Council for Regulation of Engineering
in Nigeria (COREN) and their corresponding societies or
associations will be expected to conduct mandatory and regular
workshops/seminar for their members to keep them abreast of
current development in their chosen profession. These bodies
should set up units to monitor the activities of the members,
make random visits to the project sites where those who are
found wanting in the discharge of their duties should be
sanctioned.
Civil Society and Non-Governmental Organisations
Civil societies, especially the NGO, should act as watchdog to
report any new development and even the restructuring of the
old structure to the relevant authorities. They should also
intensify the campaign against building collapse and its danger
in mass media. Based on the result of the research, the
following recommendations are made:
Measures should be put in place to ensure schools are
more evenly distributed within the study area, putting the
minimum distance apart from one another into
consideration
Zonal authorities should have a strong enforcement on
the criteria for site suitability for new schools
School should be located in the neighborhood centers in
order to achieve the 2km minimum distance from most
of the residential buildings.
Literature research has shown that improper distribution
of schools is not only peculiar to the study area, but
also a large number of communities. This calls for more
appropriate planning of school distribution on a much
broader geographic region.
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