NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS IN THE FORMATION OF THE FLOW OF PLAIN RIVERS OF KAZAKHSTAN IN THE CONDITIONS OF NON-STATIONARY CLIMATE

Abstract

The change in the flow of plain rivers in Kazakhstan in recent decades is done due to the influence of both climatic factors and anthropogenic impacts. Revealing their role is extremely important for understanding the genesis of hydrological changes that have already occurred and possible in the future, as well as for taking measures to reduce their undesirable consequences. The complexity of solving this problem lies in the fact that climatic and anthropogenic changes in river runoff are closely interrelated and often interact on the runoff not directly, but indirectly. The intensity of anthropogenic impact, the variability of climate characteristics determine changes in the hydrological regime of water bodies. Climatic variability leads to an increase in the likelihood of adverse hydrometeorological phenomena, and human economic activity in the watershed and in the riverbed leads to a quantitative and qualitative change in the main characteristics of the hydrological regime, degradation of river ecosystems. The changes in the annual runoff of plain rivers are estimated based on the method based on the restoration of the natural runoff of the last decades, during which significant anthropogenic changes took place. It is shown that climatic and anthropogenic factors act on the runoff both unidirectionally, increasing or decreasing it, and in opposite directions. At the same time, the influence of anthropogenic factors, mainly reservoirs and water consumption, is commensurate with the influence of climatic factors, and in many cases exceeds it.

Full text

© 2023 Al-Farabi Kazakh National University
ISSN 1563-0234, eISSN 2663-0397 Хабаршы. География сериясы. №2 (69) 2023 https://bulletin-geography.kaznu.kz
96
IRSTI 37.27.19 https://doi.org/10.26577/JGEM.2023.v69.i2.09
M. Moldakhmetov1, L. Makhmudova2,* , A. Tursunova3,
M. Grygoruk4, A. Kanatuly2, M. Zhulkainarova2,
M. Akhmetova2
1International Taraz Innovative Institute named after Sh. Murtaza, Kazakhstan, Taraz
2Kazakh National Agrarian Research University, Kazakhstan, Almaty
3Institute of Geography and Water Security, Kazakhstan, Almaty
4Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Poland, Warsaw
*e-mail: makhmudova.lyazzat@kaznaru.edu.kz
NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS IN THE FORMATION
OF THE FLOW OF PLAIN RIVERS OF KAZAKHSTAN
IN THE CONDITIONS OF NON-STATIONARY CLIMATE
The change in the flow of plain rivers in Kazakhstan in recent decades is done due to the influence
of both climatic factors and anthropogenic impacts. Revealing their role is extremely important for un-
derstanding the genesis of hydrological changes that have already occurred and possible in the future,
as well as for taking measures to reduce their undesirable consequences. The complexity of solving this
problem lies in the fact that climatic and anthropogenic changes in river runoff are closely interrelated
and often interact on the runoff not directly, but indirectly. The intensity of anthropogenic impact, the
variability of climate characteristics determine changes in the hydrological regime of water bodies. Cli-
matic variability leads to an increase in the likelihood of adverse hydrometeorological phenomena, and
human economic activity in the watershed and in the riverbed leads to a quantitative and qualitative
change in the main characteristics of the hydrological regime, degradation of river ecosystems. The
changes in the annual runoff of plain rivers are estimated based on the method based on the restoration
of the natural runoff of the last decades, during which significant anthropogenic changes took place. It is
shown that climatic and anthropogenic factors act on the runoff both unidirectionally, increasing or de-
creasing it, and in opposite directions. At the same time, the influence of anthropogenic factors, mainly
reservoirs and water consumption, is commensurate with the influence of climatic factors, and in many
cases exceeds it.
Key words: river runoff, base period, long-term runoff fluctuations, anthropogenic factors, climatic
factors.
M.М.Молдахметов1, Л.К.Махмудова2*, А.А.Турсунова3, M.Григорюк4,
Ә.Канатұлы2, M.Н.Жулкайнарова2, M.П.Aхметова2
1Ш.Мұртаза атындағы Халықаралық Тараз инновациялық институты, Қазақстан, Тараз қ.
2Қазақ ұлттық аграрлық зерттеу университеті, Қазақстан, Алматы қ.
3География және су қауіпсіздігі институты, Қазақстан, Алматы қ.
4Варшава жаратылыстану ғылымдары университеті, Польша, г. Варшава
*e-mail: makhmudova.lyazzat@kaznaru.edu.kz
Өзгермелі климат жағдайында Қазақстан өзендері ағындысын
қалыптастырушы табиғи және антропогендік факторлар
Қазақстанның жазықтық өзендері ағындысының соңғы жылдардағы өзгерісі климаттық
және антропогендік факторлармен айқындалады. Қазіргі және болашақта байқалуы мүмкін
гидрологиялық өзгерістердің себебін түсіну және осы өзгерістердің әсерінен туындайтын
қолайсыз зардаптарды жеңілдету бойынша шаралар қабылдау үшін олардың рөлін айқындау
өте маңызды. Өзен ағындысының климаттық және антропогендік өзгерісі өзара тығыз
байланысты болғандықтан және көп жағдайда өзен ағындысына тікелей емес жанама әсер
ететіндіктен қойылған міндеттерді шешу өте күрделі. Су нысандарының гидрологиялық
режимінің өзгерісі ағындығы әсер ететін антропогендік факторлардың қарқындылығы және
климаттық сипаттамалардың құбылмалылығымен айқындалады. Климаттың өзгергіштігі
қолайсыз гидрометеорологиялық құбылыстардың қайталану жиілігін арттырады, ал су жинау
алаптары мен өзен арналарында жүргізілетін адамның шаруашылық іс-әрекеті өзендердің негізгі

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M. Moldakhmetov et al.
гидрологиялық сипаттамаларының сандық және сапалық өзгерісіне, өзен экожүйесінің бұзылуына
алып келеді. Зерттеу тақырыбының өзектілігі өзендерден алынатын су көлемінің артуына, суды
тұтыну көлемінің ұлғаюына және климаттың қолайсыз өзгерістеріне байланысты су ресурстары
жетіспеушілігімен анықталады. Жазықтық өзендердің жылдық ағындысының өзгерісі соңғы
онжылдықтар ішінде айтарлықтай антропогендік өзгеріске ұшыраған табиғи ағындыны қалпына
келтіру әдісі арқылы бағаланады. Бұл мақсатта су режимі салыстырмалы аз өзгеріске ұшыраған
өзендердің (қарастырылып отырған өзендердің салалары мен жоғарғы ағысы) ағындысы
жөніндегі деректер пайдаланылды. Қалпына келтірілген ағынды деректері осы кезең аралығында
антропогендік өзгеріске ұшыраған ағынды деректерімен және оған дейіңгі антропогендік әсерді
ескермеуге болатын негізгі кезең ағындысымен салыстырылды. Климаттық және антропогендік
факторлар өзен ағындысын бір бағытта ұлғайтатыны немесе азайтатыны, сондай-ақ қарама-
қарсы бағытта әсер ететіні көрсетілген. Оның үстіне антропогендік факторлардың негізінен
бөгендер мен су тұтынудың ағындыға тигізетін ықпалы климаттық факторлардың ықпалымен
шамалас және көп жағдайда одан асып түседі.
Түйін сөздер: өзен ағындысы, негізгі кезең, ағындының көпжылдық тербелісі, антропогендік
факторлар, климаттық факторлар.
M.М.Молдахметов1, Л.К.Махмудова2*, А.А.Турсунова3, M.Григорюк4,
Ә.Канатұлы2, M.Н.Жулкайнарова2, M.П.Aхметова2
1Международный Таразский инновационный институт имени Ш.Муртаза, Казахстан, г. Тараз
2Казахский национальный аграрный исследовательский университет, Казахстан, г. Алматы
3Институт географии и водной безопасности, Казахстан, г. Алматы
4Варшавский университет естественных наук, Польша, г. Варшава
*e-mail: makhmudova.lyazzat@kaznaru.edu.kz
Природные и антропогенные факторы в формировании стока
равнинных рек Казахстана в условиях нестационарности климата
Изменение стока равнинных рек Казахстана в последние десятилетия обусловлено влиянием,
как климатических факторов, так и антропогенных воздействий. Выявить их роль чрезвычайно
важно для понимания генезиса уже произошедших и возможных в будущем гидрологических
изменений, а также для принятия мер по снижению их нежелательных последствий. Сложность
решения этой задачи заключается в том, что климатические и антропогенные изменения речного
стока тесно взаимосвязаны и часто взаимодействуют на сток не непосредственно, а косвенно.
Интенсивность антропогенного воздействия, вариабельность характеристик климата определяют
изменения гидрологического режима водных объектов. Климатическая изменчивость приводит
к увеличению вероятности неблагоприятных гидрометеорологических явлений, а хозяйственная
деятельность человека на водосборе и в русле реки приводит к количественному и качественному
изменению основных характеристик гидрологического режима, деградации речных экосистем.
Актуальность темы исследований определяется нарастающим дефицитом водных ресурсов
в связи с увеличением изъятия объемов воды из рек, увеличением объемов водопотребления
и неблагоприятными климатическими тенденциями. Оценены изменения годового стока
равнинных рек на основе метода, основанного на восстановлении естественного стока последних
десятилетий, в течение которых происходили его существенные антропогенные изменения.
Для этих целей использованы данные о стоке рек (притоков рассматриваемых рек и их верхних
частей), водный режим которых относительно слабо изменен антропогенным воздействием.
Данные о восстановленном речном стоке сравнивались с антропогенно-измененным стоком за
этот период и за предшествующий ему базовый период, когда антропогенным воздействием
можно пренебречь. Показано, что климатические и антропогенные факторы действуют на сток
как однонаправленно, увеличивая или уменьшая его, так и в противоположных направлениях.
При этом влияние антропогенных факторов, главным образом водохранилищ и водопотребления,
соизмеримо с влиянием климатических факторов, а во многих случаях превосходит его.
Ключевые слова: речной сток, базовый период, многолетние колебания стока, антропогенные
факторы, климатические факторы.
Introduction
Signicant changes in climatic conditions and
the rapid transformation of the economic complex in
recent decades have led to negative changes in river
ow. In the basins of lowland rivers in Kazakhstan,
over the past few decades there has been a marked
warming of the climate, which is accompanied by
an expand in air temperature and, to a lesser degree,
in atmospheric moisture. These changes are char-

98
Natural and anthropogenic factors in the formation of the ow of plain rivers of Kazakhstan ...
acterized by considerable spatial heterogeneity and
lead to multidirectional changes in ow. They are
superimposed on changes caused by a wide range of
anthropogenic inuences, both in river channels and
in their watersheds. At the same time, the ratio of the
contribution of natural-climatic and anthropogenic
factors in the occurring and scenario changes in the
ow remains insuciently studied, despite the stud-
ies conducted by scientists-hydrologists.
The territory of Kazakhstan is characterized by
uneven distribution of water resources in space and
time, the possibility of using water resources has
reached such a size that the ow decit has become
a limiting factor for socio-economic growth of the
area. At present, major water problems are clearly
observed in the river basins, which in a few years
may become a factor hindering the socio-economic
development of the region. Therefore, it is necessary
to take urgent measures taking into account long-
term nature of water projects development and im-
plementation.
The ow of the lowland rivers of Kazakhstan is
characterized by long-term changes that are caused
by natural-climatic and anthropogenic factors. A
large number of scientic studies have been devoted
to the dynamics of long-term changes in river ow
and the role of individual factors of such changes
(Galperin et al., 2012; Shiklomanov, 2008; Ko-
ronkevich et al., 2003; Shiklomanov, 1989; Shik-
lomanov, 1979). While identifying separately the
contribution of climatic and anthropogenic factors
to these changes remains one of the urgent prob-
lems. First of all, the issue is the diculty of sep-
arating their inuence on river ow, since natural
and anthropogenic factors act simultaneously and
are closely interrelated. Various studies and assess-
ments of the contribution of factors are often timed
to dierent time periods and there remain periods
not covered by scientic research (Dostay et al.,
2012; Abishev et al., 2016; Georgiadi et al., 2014;
Georgiadi et al., 2009; Koronkevich, 1990).
The list of anthropogenic factors taken into
account signicantly diers, and indirect anthro-
pogenic inuences on runo are rarely taken into
account. Dierent methods are used in studies to
identify the hydrological role of climatic and an-
thropogenic factors and to assess the ratio of these
factors in hydrological changes (Alimkulov et al.,
2018; Koronkevich et al., 2015; Andreyanov, 1959;
Kuzin, 1970; Alimkulov et al., 2021; Georgiadi et
al., 2012; Georgiadi et al., 2014; Moldakhmetov et
al., 2014; Moldakhmetov et al., 2020; Georgiadi et
al., 2017).
According to Sustainable Development Goal
6, “Ensure availability and sustainable use of wa-
ter resources and sanitation for all,” by 2030 it is
necessary to signicantly improve the eciency of
water use in all sectors of the economy (ensuring
sustainable freshwater abstraction and supply to
address scarcity) and ensure integrated water re-
sources management at all levels. Under the Goal
13 “Take urgent action to combat climate change
and its eects” requires the inclusion of responses to
climate change in policies, strategies and planning
at the national level and the adoption of meaningful
measures to mitigate the eects of climate change
(World Sustainable Development Report, 2020).
In the late XX and early XXI centuries, the ac-
complished fact of global warming was acknowl-
edged (Galperin et al., 2012; Shiklomanov, 2008;
Koronkevich et al., 2003; Shiklomanov, 1989;
Modern global changes in the natural environment,
2006; Georgievsky, 1996), but the debate about the
causes of contemporary climate change remains in-
complete. Many scientists acknowledge the fact of
anthropogenic climate change due to carbon dioxide
accumulation in the atmosphere, while others rm-
ly believe that the energy power of the processes
taking place in the natural cycle is some orders of
magnitude higher than the technogenic energy capa-
bilities. Rhythms of space, natural rhythmicity and
its phases have a signicant inuence on many pro-
cesses occurring on the Earth, including long-term
uctuations of river runo, which is an integral in-
dicator of climate change (Ineson et al., 2015; Gray
et al., 2010).
The problem of global climate change and its
forecast is now given great attention in the world;
this problem is reected, in particular, in the fol-
lowing scientic works (Makhmudova et al., 2021;
Frolova et al., 2013; Meleshko, 2008). According to
scientic research given in (Meleshko, 2008) it fol-
lows that at least since the beginning of XX century
the global problem has been growing – according to
smoothed values by 0.75 0C. After a temporary cool-
ing from the mid-1940s to the mid-1960s, there was
already a continuous rise in temperature, but, it is
very indicative, an exceptionally powerful warming
since the mid-1970s. This phenomenon was noted
much earlier – so, O.A. Drozdov (Drozdov, 1992)
pointed out that a new warming in the world be-
gan in 1973 and, on this basis, doubt was expressed
about the possibility of predicting future water re-
sources on the basis of long series of observations.
According to V.P. Meleshko’s research (Meleshko,
2008) the probability of warming since the mid-20th

99
M. Moldakhmetov et al.
century is related to the concentration of greenhouse
gases more than 90 %, it follows that warming will
continue (Makhmudova et al., 2021).
As for anthropogenic changes in runo of the
last modern period, they are quite reasonably dis-
turbing for humanity. These changes really exist,
but their values are not comparable with natural
cyclical climate changes of dierent nature. The
danger of anthropogenic changes lies in their irre-
versibility. Besides, a combination of accumulating
anthropogenic and cyclic natural climate changes is
dangerous because there are periods of years when
anthropogenic and natural changes are directed in
the same direction and can manifest with threaten-
ing rapidity, so minimizing the anthropogenic com-
ponent is a safety net for mankind.
For a reliable integrated assessment of water re-
sources and water availability in the basin or region
for the present and future, in addition to data on uc-
tuations in river ow, it is necessary to quantify its
changes under the inuence of climatic and anthro-
pogenic factors.
According to the research of the following au-
thors (Alimkulov et al., 2018) since the one thousand
nine hundred seventy, the relevance of dependable
assessment of water resources and their projected
changes below the inuence of economic action has
increased even more in connection with the genuine
problem of changes in global and regional climat-
ic characteristics. These changes are already taking
space in the plain rivers of Kazakhstan and can lead
to large-scale transformations of the hydrological
cycle, changes in water resources and their use, dis-
tribution in time and space, extreme characteristics
of river ow and their variability.
Scientic studies (Meleshko, 2008) contain the
following statement, in the distribution of water re-
sources in the future: in areas of excessive moisture
water resources will increase, and in areas where
water availability is now insucient, its further re-
duction is foreseen. Apparently, such feature of wa-
ter resources dynamics is typical for Kazakhstan as
well. Indeed, in the inland areas of middle latitudes,
increasing temperature causes an increase in evap-
oration, reducing the period of snow accumulation
(Makhmudova et al., 2021; Moldakhmetov et al.,
2013), which has a negative impact on river runo.
Anthropogenic changes in climatic characteris-
tics are so signicant that they have led to signicant
violations of the hydrological cycle, the quantity of
water resources, their distribution over time and
territory, the extreme characteristics of river ow
and their variability, which cannot be ignored when
developing long-term integrated use plans when de-
signing long-term water management measures (Al-
imkulov et al., 2018).
Most of the researches devoted to the study of
water resources of Kazakhstan and the regularities
of their spatial and temporal changes operate with
the values of annual runo and inter-annual variabil-
ity (Shults, 1965; Sosedov, 1984; Boldyrev, 1965;
Galperin, 1970; Dostaev, 1990). Far fewer works
study the maximum and minimum ow, intra-annu-
al regime and other hydrological issues of narrow
focus (Boldyrev, 1965; Galperin, 1970; Dostaev,
1990). Meanwhile, the annual values of river runo
consist of water volumes of individual genetically
based phases of its formation, during which, in fact,
signicant responses to climatic and anthropogenic
changes are observed.
The rst major works that carried out compre-
hensive hydrological studies, including the water
regime and intra-annual ow distribution of rivers
in Kazakhstan, were the series of monographs “Sur-
face Water Resources of the USSR”, published in
1950-1970. Peculiarities of the regularities of ow
formation, distribution, and water regime of indi-
vidual regions of Kazakhstan were considered in the
works of Soviet scientists (Kuzin, 1953; Berkaliev,
1959). The early works of Kazakh scientists such
as V.M. Boldyrev, R.I. Galperin, S.K. Davletgaliev,
A.A. Tursunov, J.D. Dostay, and others also belong
to this group (Boldyrev et al., 1994; Galperin, 1992).
It should be noted that in all works of this period,
hydrological assessments were carried out from the
position of climate stationarity and ow formation
processes.
In scientic researches of foreign authors
(Hughes et al., 2000; Technical report, 2010; Peka-
rova et al., 2008; Piniewski et al., 2011), methods
and principles of trends accounting, water resourc-
es assessment, water regime changes are given.
These works are aimed at studying water regime
and management developed by methodologies -
nanced by water departments of countries and UN-
ESCO. In recent years, it is possible to note studies
of the impact of climate change on river ow in the
works of scientists of the Institute of Water Prob-
lems of the Russian Academy of Sciences A. Geor-
giadi, N. Koronkevich, I. Milyukova, A. Kislov,
O. Anisimov, E. Barabanova, etc. (Report on re-
search, 2012) on the rivers of the Arctic basin and
the Russian plain.
Therefore, the relevance of the topic is deter-
mined by the growing scarcity of water resources
due to increased withdrawal of water from rivers,

100
Natural and anthropogenic factors in the formation of the ow of plain rivers of Kazakhstan ...
unfavourable climatic trends, and increase in water
consumption.
The main goal – study of long-term trends in
ow changes in the plain river basins under climate
variability and anthropogenic load for eective de-
cision-making on water resources management,
sustainable development of the region and food se-
curity.
Materials and methods
When performing various methods and tech-
niques were used for research work, such as: ana-
lytical generalization of known scientic and scien-
tic-technical results; content – analysis; methods
of system analysis; statistical methods (analysis of
linear trends in multi-year runo uctuations; com-
parison of annual and seasonal runo values for
multi-year periods with the same meteorological
characteristics, but with dierent levels of econom-
ic activity development; methods of hydrological
analogy; numerous correlations between runo and
meteorological characteristics; analysis of runo
dependencies in catchment areas where it is formed
and used for economic needs; territorial multiple de-
pendencies of river runo on physical-geographical,
meteorological and anthropogenic factors); quanti-
tative methods; methods of probability theory and
mathematical statistics.
To solve these problems, studies have been con-
ducted based on methods common in hydrology,
considering the spatial patterns of changes in riv-
er ow, such as a comprehensive physical and ge-
ographical analysis, taking into account factors of
formation and ow changes, as well as climate mod-
ify and anthropogenic inuence will be performed.
Hydrological calculations were performed in
accordance with the regulatory document SP 33-
101-2003 and Methodical Recommendations (Code
of Rules, 2004; Rozhdestvensky et al., 2009; Rozh-
destvensky et al., 2007; Rozhdestvensky et al., 2010;
Standard of the organization, 2017).
The data of RSE (Republican State Enterprise)
“Kazhydromet” were used as source materials for
the implementation of research works – data from
observations on the hydrological and meteorologi-
cal network of plain rivers of Kazakhstan (average
monthly, annual, seasonal ow of the rivers in ques-
tion, monitoring of meteorological data) for the en-
tire period of instrumental observation.
The research concept is based on an independ-
ent approach, in which the integral assessment of the
inuence of the ow factors under consideration is
based on the reconstruction of the conditional-natu-
ral annual ow. Using regression relations of annual
and seasonal ow of large rivers and their tributaries
(river indicators) located in the area of ow forma-
tion of the main river under conditions of relatively
low anthropogenic impact, and comparison of the
restored ow with the actual ow (Georgiadi et
al., 2013; Georgiadi et al., 2019). The developed
approach gives an opportunity to reveal long-term
integral changes of river runo – assessment of riv-
er runo changes caused by natural-climatic fac-
tors (according to relations between runo of the
main-river and river indicators).
For each river in the study basins, the boundaries
of base periods, average values of annual and
seasonal runo and their dierence are calculated
for these periods (the dierence will show the
total changes in the runo, which occurred under
the inuence of both anthropogenic impacts and
climatic factors).
To determine the contribution of anthropogenic
and climatic factors in the total change of annual
and seasonal runo, the method based on the
reconstruction of natural runo of the studied
rivers was applied. The method is founded on
regression relations between runo of large rivers
and their tributaries. For this method, assessment
of the contribution of anthropogenic impacts and
climatic changes in the total runo changes is based
on comparing the runo for the baseline period,
which was relatively weakly aected by economic
activities, with the actual and restored (conditionally
natural) runo for the period of signicant
anthropogenic impact (Georgiadi et al., 2019).
Studies of long-term ow changes are based
on the concept of long-term phases of increased or
decreased water availability and the inuence of
anthropogenic factors on them (based on which the
contribution of natural-climatic and anthropogenic
factors to the observed changes in annual and
seasonal ow is estimated) (Georgiadi et al., 2020).
Methodological methods, based mainly on the
use of network observations, provide only an integral
assessment of the impact of a set of anthropogenic
factors in the basin, but do not allow to identify
the role of each factor individually and thus do not
always provide the possibility of scientically based
forecasts of the river regime in the future, taking into
account economic development plans. Therefore,
for watersheds with intensive use of water resources,
assessment of ow changes should be made in
parallel by two mutually independent methods,
namely by restoring the conditionally natural

101
M. Moldakhmetov et al.
annual runo using regression relationships and by
analyzing long-term water discharge uctuations
in gauging stations (with regard for meteorological
factors uctuations). When calculating for the future,
it is important to assess runo changes under the
inuence of economic activity not only for average
water availability, but also for exceptionally low-
water and high-water years. In general, the above
methods together serve as a methodological basis
for achieving the goals of the scientic researches
and the chosen scientic approach.
Results and discussion
Choosing a billing period in a changing climate
for such a large and complex orographically territory
as lowland Kazakhstan is very dicult. Firstly,
it’s challenging to expect complete consistency of
uctuations in the hydro-climatic characteristics
in all basins. Secondly, river ow is aected by
economic activity, but it’s not the same in dierent
parts of the territory and varies signicantly over
time. Further, it’s quite obvious that the common
hydroclimatic patterns should be better manifested
in large basins. In nearly all large and medium rivers
of at Kazakhstan, the climatic ow is strongly
distorted, in particular, by reservoirs (Makhmudova
et al., 2021). When analyzing, one should keep in
mind the features of runo time series in a signicant
part of Kazakhstan: exceptional, unparalleled, low
water in the 1930s, and very high runo in the
1940s (Galperin et al., 2003). Dierence integral
curves are widely used to identify the phases of
increased and decreased water content of rivers, the
moments of change of these phases. But, it should
be borne in mind that they illustrate the course of
the accumulated anomaly only relative to the sample
mean. An analysis of the river runo dynamics in
the region under consideration shows that runo
uctuations occur cyclically (Table 1), which has
been repeatedly noted by most researchers (Galperin
et al., 2003; Makhmudova et al., 2021). An analysis
of the data for all hydrological series of the territory
under consideration reveals one common feature
of the long-term course – the increase in runo
values since the mid-1970s regardless of whether
this period belongs to the low-water or high-water
phase. The moment of transition to the high-water
phase corresponds to the data on the long-term
variation of global meteorological characteristics
(Shiklomanov, 2008; Modern global changes in the
natural environment, 2006).
Table 1 – Low-water and high-water periods on plain rivers
Low water periods High water periods
Cycle
duration
Average
consumption
for the period,
m3/s
Period, years Cycle, yy.
Average
consumption for
the period, m3/s
Period, yy. Cycle, yy.
Average
consumption for
the period, m3/s
Tobyl – Kostanay
1931-1939 9 5.85 1940-1943 4 36.4 13 15.2
1944-1945 2 7.46 1946-1953 825.9 10 22.2
1954-1956 3 6.93 1957-1964 815.5 11 13.1
1965-1969 5 2.09 1970-1973 3 17.6 9 8.46
1974-1984 11 1.94 1985-1986 2 11.1 13 3.35
1987-1989 3 4.57 1990-1994 5 23.4 816.3
1995-1996 2 4.23 1997-2005 9 16.1 11 14.0
2006-2011 6 5.58 2012-2019 87.26 14 6.54
Yesil – Petropavlovsk
1933-1939 7 13.9 1940-1949 10 111 17 70.7
1950-1953 4 18.7 1954-1964 11 66.8 15 54.0
1965-1969 5 22.8 1970-1974 5 67.2 10 45.0

102
Natural and anthropogenic factors in the formation of the ow of plain rivers of Kazakhstan ...
Low water periods High water periods
Cycle
duration
Average
consumption
for the period,
m3/s
Period, years Cycle, yy.
Average
consumption for
the period, m3/s
Period, yy. Cycle, yy.
Average
consumption for
the period, m3/s
1975-1982 8 26.5 1983-1997 15 81.9 23 62.7
1998-2001 4 15.5 2002-2007 6 69.6 10 48.0
2008-2013 6 19.5 2014-2019 6 112 12 65.7
Nura – Romanovka
1933-1937 7 6.11 1940-1943 4 19.7 11 11.1
1944-1947 4 14.1 1948-1950 338.1 7 24.4
1951-1953 3 8.58 1954-1955 2 24.5 5 15.0
1956-1957 2 6.74 1958-1962 5 30.4 7 23.6
1963-1970 8 8.80 1971-1973 3 28.3 11 14.1
1974-1977 4 13.5 1978-1979 2 22.6 6 16.6
1980-1982 3 13.2 1983-1993 11 34.2 14 29.7
1994-2001 813.6 2002-2004 3 29.1 11 17.8
2005-2014 10 11.4 2015-2019 5 65.7 15 30.0
Sarysu – №189
1932-1939 80.64 1940-1945 6 3.77 14 1.98
1946-1947 2 0.28 1948-1949 28.18 4 4.23
1950-1953 4 0.69 1954-1955 2 8.91 6 3.43
1956-1957 2 0.31 1958-1960 3 5.90 5 3.66
1961-1963 3 0.52 1964-1966 3 3.36 6 1.94
1967-1968 2 0.14 1969-1973 5 4.61 7 3.33
1974-1975 2 0.47 1976-1977 2 3.30 4 1.89
1978-1979 2 1.29 1980-1992 13 3.82 15 3.48
1993-2001 9 1.84 2002-2006 5 2.91 14 2.22
2007-2014 8 0.78 2015-2019 5 12.0 13 5.10
Table continuation
At the hydrological post Tobyl – Kostanay city
over the period of instrumental observations, two
complete cycles were identied (1940-1989 and
1990-2019 yy.). High-water phases lasting from 2 to
9 years are replaced by low-water phases lasting from
2 to 11 years, the duration of cycles is from 8 to 14
years. The lowest average annual water discharges in
Kostanay were observed in 1979 (0.93 m3/s) and in
1977 (1.02 m3/s). The highest average annual water
discharges were observed in 1942 (64.5 m3/s), in
1947 (63.0 m3/s), and in 1941 (58.2 m3/s).
In the closing section at the hydrological
post of the river Yesil – Petropavlovsk over the
period of instrumental observations revealed two
complete cycles (1940-1982 and 1983-2013 yy.).
High-water phases lasting 5-15 years are replaced
by low-water phases lasting from 4 to 8 years, the
duration of cycles is from 10 to 23 years. The lowest
average annual water discharges in Petropavlovsk
were observed in 1968 (1.38 m3/s) and in 1977
(7.26 m3/s). The highest average annual water
discharges were observed in 1948 (227 m3/s), in

103
M. Moldakhmetov et al.
1941 (175 m3/s), in 2007 (139 m3/s) and in 1990
(127 m3/s).
In the closing section at the hydrological post
of the river Nura – Romanovka over the period of
instrumental observations revealed two complete
cycles (1940-1982 and 1983-2014 yy.). High-water
phases lasting 2-11 years are replaced by low-water
phases lasting from 2 to 10 years, the duration of
cycles is from 5 to 15 years. The lowest average
annual water consumption in the village Romanovka
were observed in 1939 (1.44 m3/s) and in 1936
(1.52 m3/s). The highest average annual water
discharges were observed in 1993 (63.6 m3/s), 1990
(62.4 m3/s), 1949 (54.6 m3/s), and 1948 (51.6 m3/s).
At the hydrological post Sarysu – № 189
over the period of instrumental observations, two
complete cycles were revealed (1940-1979 and
1980-2014 yy.). High-water phases lasting from
2 to 13 years are replaced by low-water phases
lasting from 2 to 9 years, the duration of cycles is
from 4 to 15 years. The lowest average annual water
discharges were observed in 1937 (0.010 m3/s) and
in 1947 (0.092 m3/s). The highest average annual
water discharges were observed in 2015 (29.3 m3/s),
in 2017 (15.4 m3/s), and in 1949 (11.9 m3/s).
Atmospheric circulation processes have a
decisive inuence on the distribution of the cyclic
phases of climate elements and the hydrological
regime over the territory. In addition, the conditions
of the underlying surface also play a signicant role
in this distribution, particularly in relation to the
cyclic phases of precipitation and river runo. The
revealed runo cyclicity can be associated both with
the regulating capacity of watersheds and with other
factors (peculiarities of atmospheric circulation,
etc.). A reection of climatic variability can also
be a modify in runo variation over time. Water
cycles are understood as a series of adjacent runo
years, including one low-water and one high-water
grouping of years of the same order of duration.
Changes in water content in these periods are due
to the predominance of certain types of atmospheric
circulations.
The concept of the study makes it possible to
identify long-term integral changes in river runo
– an assessment of the modify in river runo due
to natural and climatic factors (by relationships
between the ow of the main river and the ow of
indicator-rivers). At the same time, as it can be seen,
the boundaries of the periods dier on the rivers
(Table 2) under consideration, which is explained by
the time of the onset of a signicant anthropogenic
impact (Galperin et al., 2012; Makhmudova et al.,
2021; Meshyk et al., 2022; Georgiadi et al., 2020).
Table 2 – Change in the volume of annual runo under the total impact inuence of climatic and anthropogenic factors, relative to
the base period
River – point
Base period Period of signicant
anthropogenic impact Flow change
years runo volume,
million m3years runo volume,
million m3
average for the year total,
million m3
million m3%
Tobyl – Kostanay 1931-1963 523 1964-2019 293 -230 -44.0 -12880
Yesil – Astana 1933-1970 183 1971-2019 129 -54.0 -29.5 -2646
Yesil – Kamennyi Karier 1933-1970 1302 1971-2019 1211 -91.0 -6.99 -4459
Yesil – Petropavlovsk 1932-1970 1772 1971-2019 1930 158 8.92 7742
Nura – Balykty 1935-1973 189 1974-2019 325 136 72.0 6256
Nura – Romanovka 1933-1973 529 1974-2019 636 107 20.2 4922
Sarysu – №189 1932-1965 84.7 1966-2019 80.7 -4.00 -4.72 -216
Changes in the annual runo on the rivers that is
under consideration (Table 2) had a multidirectional
character – the total runo on the Tobyl River during
the period of signicant anthropogenic impact
decreased, and on the Nura River it increased due
to the transfer of runo from the Ertis – Karaganda
canal. At the same time, the runo of Tobyl near
the city of Kostanay changed most noticeably
in 1964-2019 decreased in comparison with the
base period by more than 12800 million m3 (over

104
Natural and anthropogenic factors in the formation of the ow of plain rivers of Kazakhstan ...
200 million m3/year), on the river Yesil in the
alignment of Astana for the period from 1971-2019
the decrease in annual runo amounted to more
than 2600 million m3 (about 50 million m3/year),
on the river Sarysu decline in annual runo over
the period from 1966-2019 amounted to more than
200 million m3 (5 million m3/year), which had a
very negative impact on the water management and
hydro ecological situation in the basins.
When restoring the conditionally natural runo,
it’s taken into account: long-term data relating to
the period before the onset of a noticeable impact of
anthropogenic factors; the second part consists of a
long-term series, the annual runo in which is changed
to varying degrees as a result of the anthropogenic
factors impact (Georgiadi et al., 2019). The annual
runo was restored by two methods. One of them
proceeds from regression relationships between
the runo of the main river and the runo of rivers
that are indicators of climatic conditions (tributaries
and upper parts of the main river), characterized
by relatively feeble anthropogenic disturbances of
the water regime. One of the rst to use it was I.A.
Shiklomanov (Shiklomanov, 1989; Shiklomanov,
1979). In the Table 3 shows the results of assessing
the contribution of climatic and anthropogenic
factors to these changes, calculated using the
restoring conditionally natural ow method.
Table 3 – Changes in annual runo over the period of signicant anthropogenic impact, calculated by the restoring its conditionally
natural values method, million m3
River – point
Anthropogenic changes Climate change
total for the period average for the year total for the period average for the year
Tobyl – Kostanay – 10416 – 186 – 2464 – 44
Yesil – Petropavlovsk – 13328 – 272 21070 430
Nura – Balykty 3404 74.0 2852 62.0
Nura – Romanovka – 5566 -121 10488 228
Sarysu – №189 – 1528 -28.3 1312 24.3
As follows from Table 3, anthropogenic and
climatic changes in the annual runo on the riv-
er Tobyl were unidirectional – downward, and
the share of anthropogenic changes is more than
80 %, respectively, the share of climate change is
20 %. On the rivers Yesil, Nura, Sarysu, the eect
of anthropogenic and climatic factors was multi-
directional with the predominant inuence of an-
thropogenic factors. On the river Nura, the share
of anthropogenic changes in the upper reaches is
more than 54 %, respectively, the share of climate
changes is 46 %, in the lower reaches 87 and 13 %,
respectively.
Conclusion
The conducted scientic research is devoted to
the complex problem of assessing the role of natu-
ral and anthropogenic factors in the formation of the
ow of plain rivers. The main emphasis in solving
these studies was placed on the problems of non-sta-
tionary climate and the uncertainty of hydrological
phenomena. The results of scientic research have
shown that there is every reason to believe that a
certain phase of climate and runo, which charac-
terizes the current period, began in the 60-70s. XX
century, the intensication of economic activity in
Kazakhstan also occurred during this period. From
the 70s in the XX century, a new phase began in
the changes in the water resources of vast territo-
ries, with some slowing down of the process or even
grouping of years of the opposite sign of the anoma-
ly from the end of the 90s do not give grounds to be-
lieve that this phase has ended and been replaced by
a new one, these are just random groupings against
the backdrop of an established trend. The modern
period in the long-term course of the water content
of the rivers of the territory under consideration can
be considered the period from the mid-70s to the last
century. For the rivers of the river basin Tobyl is
characterized by runo cyclicity from 8 to 14 years,
for the river Yesil is characterized by a cyclic ow
with a period of 10-23 years, for the basin of the riv-
er Nura from 5 to 15 years and for the rivers of the

105
M. Moldakhmetov et al.
river basin Sarysu is characterized by runo cycles
from 4 to 15 years.
The obtained estimates of changes in the volume
of annual runo under the inuence of the climatic
and anthropogenic factors total impact of relative to
the base period showed the following:
– Tobyl – the decrease in runo is more than
40 %;
– Yesil in the alignment of Astana, the decrease
leaves 30 %, further downstream in the alignment
with Kamennyi Karier – 7 %;
– Nura – increase in runo due to the transfer of
runo from the Ertis – Karaganda canal;
– Sarysu – the decrease in runo is 5 %.
An assessment of the anthropogenic and climat-
ic factors contribution to changes in annual runo
observed river basins: Tobyl, Yesil, Nura, Sarysu,
showed the following picture – the share of an-
thropogenic and climatic factors in the decrease in
annual runo when using the method of restoring
conditionally natural runo is estimated on the river
Tobyl in 80 % and 20 %; on the river Yesil 70 % and
30 %; on the river Nura 87 % and 13 % respectively.
The practical signicance of the research results
lies in the following: the identied long-term and
seasonal patterns of the main hydrological character-
istics of the plain rivers of Kazakhstan will make it
possible to plan and adjust economic activities in the
watersheds of the rivers under consideration in con-
ditions of climate variability. The results obtained
are necessary as recommendations on the current
volumes of rational water use and water consump-
tion in the context of climate change and the impact
of human economic activity, in order to change the
irrigated areas and plans for the development of the
agro-industrial complex.
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