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Citation: Fan, K.-w. The Little Ice
Age and the Fall of the Ming Dynasty:
A Review. Climate 2023,11, 71.
https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11030071
Academic Editor: Rajmund
Przybylak
Received: 28 January 2023
Revised: 9 March 2023
Accepted: 13 March 2023
Published: 17 March 2023
Copyright: © 2023 by the author.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
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4.0/).
climate
Communication
The Little Ice Age and the Fall of the Ming Dynasty: A Review
Ka-wai Fan
Department of Chinese and History, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong;
cikwfan@cityu.edu.hk
Abstract:
Based on the climate proxy data, several recent studies have concluded that the Ming
dynasty’s reign in China coincided with the Little Ice Age, a global crisis. In response, scholars have
published several reports in recent years addressing this topic. This paper presents a comprehensive
overview of the current research findings in English regarding this subject and identifies existing
research gaps. The author proposes that the impact of climate on different regions during the late
Ming period remains largely underexplored. Furthermore, scholars must exercise caution when
assuming that adverse climatic conditions uniformly impacted the Ming empire during the Little Ice
Age. This paper also highlights the use of simplistic models by scholars linking cold and dry climates
to crop failure, floods, droughts, population decline, and other factors. However, any straightforward
models that presume causal determination risk ignoring historical facts.
Keywords:
climate change; historical climatology; Ming dynasty; the little ice age; the Manchu
conquest of China
1. Introduction
Ever since François Matthes coined the term “Little Ice Age” in 1939, scholars have
used it to refer to its role in notable events in history [
1
,
2
]. The Little Ice Age (hereafter LIA)
refers to the period from the 17th to the mid-19th century, when the earth’s temperature
experienced a substantial decline. However, unlike the current global warming trend, the
LIA was not uniformly distributed across the globe. Raphael Neukom et al. discovered
no indication of preindustrial universally consistent cold and warm periods over the last
2000 years [
3
]. As a result, the LIA is likely to have had varied impacts in different regions
across the globe.
In the last two decades, scholars have re-examined the impact of the LIA on different
regions in the 17th century [
4
–
10
]. From the perspective of world history, Geoffrey Parker’s
book in 2013 and Philipp Blom’s book in 2019 offer a comprehensive picture portraying the
global crisis that occurred because of climate change in the 17th century [
11
,
12
]. Several
empires worldwide faced different forms of calamities and major crises in the 17th century.
The Ming empire—which was no exception—could not cope with the crises, and was
ultimately conquered by the Manchu military.
The Ming–Qing transition was a notable event in Chinese history. The late period
of the Ming dynasty witnessed innumerable natural and human-made disasters. Studies
have verified that the LIA, with temperature cooling, spanned from the 17th century to the
19th century globally [
13
–
15
]. The collapse of the Ming dynasty (or the Manchu conquest
of China) occurred during the LIA. In the last decade, climatologists, meteorologists, and
geographers, among others, have expressed keen interest in this topic and reported the
findings of their investigations.
This paper reviews the recent studies published in English concerning the LIA and
the fall of the Ming dynasty.
Climate 2023,11, 71. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11030071 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/climate
Climate 2023,11, 71 2 of 8
2. The Little Ice Age in the 17th Century
According to studies involving high-resolution temperature reconstructions of the
Northern Hemisphere, the LIA occurred during the late 16th century to the end of the 17th
century [
16
–
18
]. This period was also the coldest century during the past 1000 or even
2000 years. The cause of the LIA is a contentious topic among scholars. Recent studies
have suggested that the LIA could be largely ascribed to three factors, namely, solar activity,
volcanic activity, and internal oscillations [19–22].
The Ming dynasty ruled China for 276 years (1368–1644), and its rule ended when the
Manchu military conquered Beijing (the capital of the Ming dynasty) in 1644. Following
the crisis of the Tumu Fortress in 1449, the Ming empire abandoned its military expansion
to the north, leaving the northeastern border vulnerable to harassment from the emerging
Jurchens (Manchus). Although the Ming government was unable to exert control over the
northwestern and western territories, including present-day Xinjiang and Tibet, the coastal
regions comprising present-day Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong
provinces thrived as prosperous regions.
Chinese scholars have used Chinese historical records to trace changes in climate
across historical periods in China. A pioneering article written by Zhu Kezhen identified
that 1300 to 1900 was the fourth coldest period in Chinese history [
14
]. Man Zhimin and Ge
Quansheng published their books separately, both of which point out that the late 16th cen-
tury was certainly the coldest period [
23
,
24
]. In light of the above, it is worth investigating
what caused China to experience this cold period. The studies by these Chinese scholars do
not offer the answer to this question. Dagomar Degroot comprehensively reviewed the LIA
and society from the 15th to 18th centuries around the world [
25
]. Unfortunately, at the
time of writing, he was not familiar with Chinese history and was unable to offer a critical
review of existing research.
In 2021, Jingyao Zhao et al., based on speleothem oxygen isotope records, proposed a
new concept—“the late Ming weak monsoon periods.” Zhao noted that weak monsoons
caused China to experience severe cold conditions and extremely weak summer monsoons
during the late 16th and the early 17th century. The severest drought event was time-
transgressive on a decadal scale from northern China to the Jiang-Huai region. Under
such influence, a series of consequences included widespread population decline, peasant
uprisings, and Manchu conquest [26].
Kefan Chan et al. applied a climatological concept of “megadrought”—a prolonged
drought lasting two decades or longer—to describe the late Ming dynasty’s situation.
According to paleoclimatic reconstructions, a natural drought event started in 1637. Un-
fortunately, the tropical volcanic eruption at Mount Parker in 1641 intensified the drought.
Finally, the severest drought event in China in the last millennium occurred during the late
Ming period. Needless to say, the severest drought could have directly contributed to the
fall of the Ming dynasty [
27
]. Both scientists and historians speculate that volcanic eruption
and volcanic dust could have had a negative impact on weather and climate. Finally, the
earth decreased its absorption of radiation and the cold period occurred. Based on Hubert
Lamb’s findings, William Atwell claimed that the activities of two volcanoes, Indonesia’s
Mt. Awu and the Philippines’ Mt. Parker, had a significant impact on global climate and
contributed to cool summers. Drought, famine, and plague were also prevalent under
such extreme weather conditions, especially in northern China [
28
]. Recently, Richard Von
Glahn, in his volume about comprehensive economic history, re-examined the various
explanations of the economic crisis of the late Ming period. Von Glahn emphasized that
Atwell’s argument is still persuasive [
29
]. Chaochao Gao et al. also believed that the
collapse of the Ming dynasty in 1644 followed a major volcanic event in 1641. However,
Gao et al. also suggested that some dynasties were more vulnerable to climatic shocks than
others. The Ming dynasty was particularly vulnerable during the 17th century [30].
Shen Caiming reported that the severest drought center in the Eastern region of China
encountered a significant reduction in summer rainfall (approximately 50% or more) from
1638 to 1641. The drought event occurred in northern China, the Yangtze River, and the
Climate 2023,11, 71 3 of 8
northern part of the southeastern coastal area. Shen affirmed that these exceptional drought
events might have been triggered by large volcanic eruptions and El Niño events [31].
The findings of the above-mentioned studies confirm that the Ming dynasty was
unfortunate to experience the most extreme weather in Chinese history during the 17th
century, including the LIA, weak monsoons, volcanic activity, and El Niño, which occurred
in the same period. As stated earlier, drought, famine, and epidemics also accompanied
these calamities.
3. What Were the Consequences of Climate Change?
Scholars have also investigated the relationship between climate change and crisis
in China during the 17th century. Jingyun Zheng et al. studied the relationship between
climate change and social vulnerability. They identified three ways in which cooling, aridi-
fication, and desertification during the cold period contributed to the collapse of the Ming
dynasty. First, the military farm system was destroyed; military expenditure was increased,
and the national fiscal crisis was exacerbated. Second, a widespread food shortage occurred.
Third, severe droughts from 1627 to 1643 triggered a peasant uprising [32].
Han Jianfu and Yang Yuda also analyzed the relationship between climate change
and social vulnerability in the late 15th century in Northern China, based on reconstructed
data regarding temperature, precipitation, and extreme drought events. They specifically
examined the socio-economic effects of extreme drought events, which led to a sharp
reduction in the military farm system and a large-scale population migration in Northern
China. They reported that the local financial system was destroyed [33].
Zhudeng Wei et al. asserted that population growth and economic development
have been somewhat overwhelmed since the late Ming rule. Economic fluctuations arose
from the bad climate. At the same time, three instances of large-scale military actions
were reported in the northwest and southwest of China and Korea during the reign of
Emperor Wanli (1573–1620), which resulted in heavy taxation on farmers. Climate change
impacted the key processes (military farm production, food and fiscal crises, and peasant
uprising) involved in the collapse of the Ming dynasty [
34
]. In addition to the above-
mentioned consequences, epidemic was another major negative impact ascribable to climate
change. Anthony McMichael offered a global perspective linking the LIA to various
diseases. McMichael specifically mentions the occurrence of smallpox and epidemics
during the late Ming period [
35
]. Helen Dunstan conducted a comprehensive data collection
regarding epidemics during the late Ming dynasty [
36
]. Pei Qing verified the “climate
change/economy/epidemics” mechanism in historical China using statistical methods.
This study adopts David Zhang’s research approach and hypothesis to furnish the evidence
that climate change could only fundamentally lead to epidemics’ spread and occurrence;
depressed economic well-being was the direct trigger of epidemics’ spread and occurrence
at both the national and long-term scales in historical China [37–39].
Angela Schottenhammer’s research is centered on the period between 1550 and 1640,
which coincides with a high number of La Niña occurrences. Studies have suggested that
La Niña could have contributed to the rise in typhoons hitting South China during this
era, leading to adverse consequences, such as extensive rainfall, floods, inundations, tidal
disasters, and typhoons in Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang provinces, resulting in the
outbreak of epidemics [
40
]. These findings indicate that coastal regions did not necessarily
experience droughts, famines, and plagues.
Qian Liu et al., through quantitative analyses of natural disasters and human wars
of the final 35 years of the late Ming dynasty (1610–1644), identified six factors that led to
the collapse of the Ming dynasty, namely, internal rebellions, external wars, inter-ethnic
conflicts, drought, locusts, and floods. The former three were human factors, accounting
for approximately 47% of the fall of the Ming dynasty, whereas the latter three were natural
factors, accounting for approximately 53% [41].
In brief, drought, famine, locusts, and epidemics were accompanied by bad weather
during the LIA in the 17th century. Two factors caused the fall of the Ming dynasty: peasant
Climate 2023,11, 71 4 of 8
uprisings (1627–1658) and the Manchu conquest in 1644. However, the cold period in
the 17th century lasted for over 200 years. The Ming empire fell into the abyss politically,
fiscally, and economically. Tim Brook noted that China entered a cold period, and great
famine occurred in the last 50 years of the Ming dynasty [
42
,
43
]. Although the weather on
its own does not explain the fall of the Ming dynasty, its history cannot be fully understood
without accounting for the pressure of weather on society and the state [44,45].
4. Discussion
Christian Pfister proposed three goals for historical climatology. The first is to re-
construct weather and climate prior to the modern instrumental period. The second is
to investigate the vulnerability of past economies and societies to climatic extremes and
natural disasters. The third goal is to explore discourses on climate [
46
]. The second goal
focuses on human responses to climate and the terrestrial environment. Scholars have
averred that institutional failure, administrative dysfunction, loss of economic vitality,
peasant uprising, and the Manchu invasion were critical factors that contributed to the fall
of the Ming dynasty [
47
,
48
]. Obviously, the Ming empire lost its own authority, power, and
resources in response to the results of climate change.
Lingbo Xiao et al. thought that the climatic impacts on the late Ming empire were much
more serious, including more rapid cooling and more extreme disasters. The Ming empire
did not practice a policy of inter-regional migration to appease social unrest [
49
]. The author
proposes the following for consideration. (1) Climate crisis in the 17th century had the
same negative impact on the Manchu empire, which was located in Manchuria (modern-
day northeast region of China and Outer Manchuria), including cooling temperature,
precipitation, and drought. How did the Manchu empire overcome the crisis and offer a
new force to conquer China? (2) The Qing dynasty established a new dynasty after the
fall of the Ming dynasty. The population size decreased sharply during the Ming–Qing
transition, and the decline in temperature continued. However, the Qing dynasty stepped
into a prosperous age. How did the Qing dynasty deal with the climate crisis? (3) After
the Manchu conquest of China, the military, people, and officials resisted the Manchu
army. The wars between the Ming forces and the Manchu army had no relationship with
climate change. The Ming forces persevered as dynasties shifted, and they could not but
resist. When considering the relationship between external wars and climate change, one
should carefully evaluate the direct causation between wars and climate change. Moreover,
Zhixin Hao et al., based on reliable rainfall and snowfall records (Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun) in the
Qing dynasty, reconstructed high-resolution climate data in different regions of China [
50
].
Hao’s article offers precise data as a solid foundation for exploring climate change and the
Qing empire.
Jianxin Cui et al. have offered their opinions on this topic. The Ming and the Manchu
suffered from the most severe drought and winter cold of the past 500 years during the
late Ming period. During this period, the Qing military occupied the Liaodong Peninsula
and extended its force. Finally, the Manchu conquered the Ming capital Beijing and the
Ming dynasty perished [
44
]. However, Cui’s paper does not provide concrete evidence or
historical facts regarding how the Manchu overcame the climate crisis and gained strength.
In addition, how did the leaders of internal rebellions (such as the two most critical
leaders of the rebellions, Zhang Xianzhong and Li Zicheng) overcome famine and drought
and organize their forces to defeat the Ming military? Scholars rarely mention Manchu
governance and the leaders of internal rebellions. More emphasis should be placed on
the spatiotemporal relationship between natural disasters and rebellions regarding the
historical fact that the leaders of the rebellions were not peasants, but soldiers.
A research gap exists in the current literature that fails to relate scientific evidence
with historical data. The above-mentioned publications fail to acknowledge the complexity
of history. The chain of cause and effect whereby a colder climate precipitated crop failures,
and then rebellions and invasion, is far more complicated. For example, no uprising
occurred in some places, such as today’s Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, which suffered
Climate 2023,11, 71 5 of 8
severe famines. First, the Chinese economy’s engine was in the south during the Ming
dynasty. Understandably, the southern region could better cope with a spate of cooler
weather [
45
]. Second, as Fiona Williamson noted, more and more scholars are interested
in investigating interactions between climate change and culture [
51
]. Economist James
Kung explored the history of the Qing dynasty and noted that while crop failure triggered
peasant rebellion, its effect was substantially smaller in counties characterized by stronger
Confucian norms [
52
]. Not all places experienced the same negative consequences of social
unrest. However, the impact of the LIA was largely similar throughout the Ming empire
in the 17th century. Research suggests that culture may have helped reduce the negative
impacts of climate change. The educational level of a region may have played a role in
alleviating the adverse effects of climate change. Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces had the
highest educational level in the Ming dynasty.
Natural disasters are an essential factor when explaining rebellions, but they are never
the only explanation. Publications about this topic always provide examples, but they do
not provide a comprehensive analysis. The duration or scale of natural disasters should be
fully considered. Therefore, further research should doubtlessly pursue more in-depth and
comprehensive analysis of the impact of climate change on the fall of the Ming dynasty.
Historians of Chinese history are more concerned that, first, social vulnerability in the
Ming dynasty was a long-standing problem from an earlier period, and second, that the
fall of the Ming dynasty be placed in the context of a global perspective. William Atwell
and Frederic Wakeman believed that the Ming dynasty’s monetary system was damaged
by the severe consequences of the global depression from 1620 to 1640 [
47
,
48
]. Finally,
the global depression triggered its entire political and social crisis. In addition, the Ming
systems, including military, financial, and political systems, were destroyed [
42
,
43
]. The
Ming political and economic systems lost their ability to respond to the crisis, including
famine, drought, locusts, high food prices, the Manchu invasion, and rebellions. The loss
of the Ming government’s crisis-handling ability could be traced from Emperor Wanli’s
reign (1572–1620). As suggested by Xiao Lingbo, when confronted with the same crisis,
the Qing government did not practice a policy of inter-regional migration to appease
social unrest [
49
]. It is estimated that over 26% of the population was lost during the
Ming–Qing transition period owing to the rebellions and the Manchu invasion [
53
,
54
].
The relationships between population size and social vulnerability have not been fully
investigated heretofore.
5. Conclusions
The author has previously examined dynastic cycle and climate change in Chinese
history [
45
,
55
]. The author believes that from the perspective of historical research, scholars
should refrain from choosing cases that could be suitable for their predetermined stance.
For example, prior to 2012, several scholars proposed that the desiccation of the steppes was
responsible for the rise of the Mongols. However, new tree ring evidence, which appeared
in 2012, is widely accepted by both historians and scientists to indicate that a warm and
moist climate offered an ideal environment, in which Genghis Khan and his successors’
invasion of the west conquered Eurasia during the 13th and 14th centuries [
56
,
57
]. It is
uncontroversial that the late Ming period coincided with the LIA, as per the new findings
of climate proxy data. It is time to intensify research on this topic. In the author ’s opinion,
many historians’ studies are excluded in the above-mentioned scientific papers. Many
scholars rely on simplistic models, such as those that directly relate cold and dry climates
to crop failure, flood, drought, population decay, and so on. Furthermore, Neukom, Tian,
and Brook’s findings inspire caution against assuming that the entire Ming empire was
uniformly impacted by adverse climate conditions during the LIA [
3
,
58
,
59
]. How different
provinces/regions during the late Ming period coped with the climate impact has not been
adequately researched. There were economic, social, and cultural differences in different
provinces/regions. A comparative analysis may reflect the complexity of the climatic effects
in different provinces/regions. To better understand the nuances of climate patterns across
Climate 2023,11, 71 6 of 8
different provinces/regions of the Ming empire, more comprehensive scientific research is
required. Attempting to establish direct causation between historical events and scientific
evidence may simplify the complex connections at play.
Please see An Online Map of the Ming Empire: https://depts.washington.edu/
chinaciv/1xarming.htm (accessed on 10 March 2023).
Funding:
This work was supported by the Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee
[Project no. 9043270, CityU11609921].
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement:
No new data were created or analyzed in this study. Data sharing is
not applicable to this article.
Conflicts of Interest: The author declares no conflict of interest.
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