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Chapter 4 - Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities
Abstract
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
... The pace of SLR is accelerating globally. During the 1990s, the global sea-level increased at an annual rate of 2.5 mm; that rate has now risen to approximately 3.4 mm per year (IPCC, 2022). Projections suggest a SLR of 26-77 cm by the year 2100 due to accelerating climate changes (IPCC, 2022). ...
... During the 1990s, the global sea-level increased at an annual rate of 2.5 mm; that rate has now risen to approximately 3.4 mm per year (IPCC, 2022). Projections suggest a SLR of 26-77 cm by the year 2100 due to accelerating climate changes (IPCC, 2022). This presents an imminent threat to nearly 600 million people residing in low-lying coastal zones around the world, notably in Asia where many live in vulnerable mega-deltas like Ganges-Brahmaputra estuary (IPCC, 2022). ...
... Projections suggest a SLR of 26-77 cm by the year 2100 due to accelerating climate changes (IPCC, 2022). This presents an imminent threat to nearly 600 million people residing in low-lying coastal zones around the world, notably in Asia where many live in vulnerable mega-deltas like Ganges-Brahmaputra estuary (IPCC, 2022). ...
This is the first large-scale empirical study examining the impact of sea-level rise induced by climate change on mental health outcomes among coastal communities. The study focuses on Bangladesh, a country severely affected by salinity ingress, flood risks, and agricultural damage due to sea-level changes. Participants (n = 1,200) randomly selected from three coastal regions each having high, moderate, or low vulnerability to sea-level rise were surveyed during the pre-monsoon season in 2021. The cross-sectional survey included validated measures of psychological distress, depression, anxiety, stress, environmental stressors, resource loss, and demographics. The results indicated significantly higher levels of psychological distress, depression, anxiety, and stress in residents of high-vulnerability areas compared to moderate or low-vulnerability regions. Resource loss served as a mediating variable between environmental stressors and mental health outcomes. Furthermore, demographic analyses showed that older adults and women reported higher levels of psychological distress. These findings align with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, highlighting urgent need for targeted mental health interventions and sustainable models of care in coastal areas increasingly threatened by sea-level rise.
... During interglacial periods, greater high-latitude insolation and greenhouse gas levels led to ice sheet melting and sea-level changes of tens to hundreds of meters. Based on direct measurements from air trapped in Antarctic ice, we know that present-day CO 2 levels are higher now than in the past 800,000 years [2]. Modern observations can not tell us how sensitive ice sheets and their various outlet glaciers and ice shelves are to atmospheric and ocean warming, or how much sea level will rise due to continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. ...
... Proxy data corroborating this higher-than-present sea level and warm climate include shoreline features [5], pollen [4], microfossil assemblages, stable isotope and Mg/Ca ratios [6], leaf-wax biomarkers [7], and ice-core records [8], among others. About 400,000 years ago, CO 2 concentrations were~280 parts per million (ppm) compared to 420 ppm today, but the average global air temperature was similar to what Earth may experience in the near future [2]. To better anticipate future impacts, models can be supplemented with more paleorecords of ice volume, sea level, atmospheric and ocean temperatures and ice- sheet history to help clarify mechanisms and sensitivities of the climate system during interglacial periods. ...
... During the last glacial interval (80,000 to 11,000 years ago), numerous sudden changes from ice sheet melt caused variations in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major branch of the global ocean conveyer belt that redistributes heat, salt, and nutrients. Rapid atmospheric warming events (up to 15˚C) over a few decades are recorded by multiple proxies in North Atlantic marine sediments (foraminifera, molluscs), in speleothems and corals, and in Greenland ice cores [2]. This sudden warming demonstrates that abrupt changes in climate and ocean circulation occurred in the past and can potentially happen in the future. ...
Earth's polar regions are at the forefront of environmental and climatic change. One clear example is the accelerating loss of Arctic summer sea ice due to polar amplification from 1979 to 2021 [1]. Declining sea ice is leading to unprecedented marine ecosystem changes [2], creating complex ecological consequences on food webs and biodiversity. Warmer and fresher ocean advection from subarctic Pacific and North Atlantic waters into the Arctic Ocean are supporting boreal species farther north, a process termed borealization [3]. To prepare for future climate conditions, resource and policy managers need information about changes that could occur. The geological record-lithological, physical, biological, and chemical archives of climate history-combined with the geomorphological and ice-core records (Fig 1) provide evidence for how ocean, atmosphere and biological systems have responded to past climate changes. We highlight four key research topics where paleoclimate data can improve our understanding of past, present, and future drivers of environmental change.
... Thermal expansion of seawater in oceans results from rising temperatures leading to a lower density of water, which in turn increases the volume per unit of mass causing SLR even if the mass of the Ocean remains constant (IPCC, 2022). It has been the main driver in Global SLR for over 1500 years due to the rise in Global mean temperatures (Kopp et al. 2016). ...
... Terrestrial groundwater storage is the least major driving factor of global SLR (IPCC, 2022). It can be summed as the changes of water within the soil (Frederikse et al., 2020). ...
... Around 1.3% of the global population are currently impacted by 100-year coastal flood events (Muis et al., 2016). These populations will be increasingly exposed to ever-more intense interacting hazards, including storm wave impact and overtopping, and coastal erosion (IPCC, 2019;Ranasinghe, 2016). Increasing exposure with no adaptation by the end of the century could lead to damage equal to 10% of global GDP (Hinkel et al., 2014). ...
Public satellite platforms offer regular observations for global coastal monitoring and climate change risk management strategies. Unfortunately, shoreline positions derived from satellite imagery, representing changes in intertidal topography, are noisy and subject to tidal bias that requires correction. The seaward‐most vegetation boundary reflects a change indicator which shifts on event–decadal timescales, and informs coastal practitioners of storm damage, sediment availability and coastal landform health. We present and validate a new open‐source tool VedgeSat for identifying vegetation edges (VEs) from high (3 m) and moderate (10–30 m) resolution satellite imagery. The methodology is based on the CoastSat toolkit, with streamlined image processing using cloud‐based data management via Google Earth Engine. Images are classified using a newly trained vegetation‐specific neural network, and VEs are extracted at subpixel level using dynamic Weighted Peaks thresholding. We performed validation against ground surveys and manual digitisation of aerial imagery across eroding and accreting open coasts and estuarine environments at a site in Scotland. Smaller‐than‐pixel vegetation boundary detection was achieved across 83% of Sentinel‐2 imagery (Root Mean Square Error of 9.3 m). An overall RMSE of 19.0 m was achieved across Landsat 5 & 8, Sentinel‐2 and PlanetScope images. Performance varied by coastal geomorphology, with highest accuracies across sandy open coasts owing to high spectral contrast and less false positives from intertidal vegetation. The VedgeSat tool can be readily applied in tandem with waterlines near‐globally, to support adaptation decisions with historic coastal trends across the whole shoreface, even in normally data‐scarce areas.
... et al., 2023;NASA, 2023). This is a considerable improvement with respect to earlier projections, which were estimates of absolute sea level rise on a global scale only (Oppenheimer et al., 2022) which forced investigators to translate global projections to their own location themselves, as was for instance done by Wahl et al (2013). ...
In this paper I present a new method for analyzing long series of observed sea levels. My method provides insight in sea level and the changes over time that are required by practicing engineers, assigned the design of new, modified or renovated structures along the coast. After extensively reviewing earlier research of sea level and tide, I present my method. The analysis relies on the application of classic harmonic analysis, which is made operational in a script in the programming language Python. Rigorous statistical testing is introduced to test the significance of trends and cycles in sea level and tide. This application of harmonic analysis and the introduction of formal statistical testing appear both to be new in this field. The method is tested on six locations in the Dutch North Sea, all with continuous sea level records of at least 130 years. The results of the statistical quality tests are shown in this paper. Subsequently, I show my findings related to mean sea level, lunar and solar tide and wind setup. Subsequently I analyze the long-term trends and cycles in Mean Sea Level. Long-period cycles with periods equal to the oceanic perigean and nodal tide are found to be important for a correct interpretation of sea level over time. Statistical tests show that acceleration of the rate of sea level is not significant up to 2021; the last year in the dataset. I compare my results with contemporary projections of sea level rise. The comparison reveals that in the Dutch North Sea the projected rates of rise are a factor two or more higher than the empirical rates established in this paper.
... This phenomenon is expected to accelerate in the near future, with a projected global average increase of 60-90 cm above the current sea level by 2100. This rapid rise in sea levels is poised to result in more frequent and hazardous occurrences of flooding and erosion in coastal zones (Dolan and Walker 2006;IPCC 2022). ...
Climate change is increasingly impacting both environments and human communities. Coastal regions in Thailand are experiencing more severe impacts, which vary based on the unique physical and socioeconomic characteristics of each area. To assess the vulnerability of coastal regions in Thailand, this study focused on two provinces, Nakhon Si Thammarat (NST) and Krabi, each representing distinct coastal environments. NST, situated on the Gulf of Thailand's east coast, has an agriculture-based economy, while Krabi, on the Andaman Sea's west coast, relies heavily on tourism. The study utilized a multi-criteria decision analysis approach (MCDA) and GIS to analyze the Coastal Vulnerability Index at the sub-district level. The results revealed that, although NST was more vulnerable than Krabi to socioeconomic factors such as the poverty rate and the number of fishery households, Krabi was much more vulnerable in the physical environment, including wave height, tidal level, coastal erosion, and slope. However, overall, Krabi exhibited high to the highest levels of coastal vulnerability, while NST displayed moderate to high levels. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and government agencies, aiding in the development of strategies to mitigate vulnerability and enhance the quality of life for local residents in both provinces .
... The scientific community has monitored the sea-level rise (SLR) since 1992. The GMSL has already reached nearly 10.1 centimeters and projections suggest an anticipated rise vary from 0.3 to 0.9 meters by the end of this century (Church and White, 2011;Oppenheimer et al., 2019;Wouters and van de Wal, 2018). Cities located along coastlines worldwide are now facing the impending risks associated with the SLR, including the tidal flooding and the storm-surges (Wahl and Dangendorf, 2022). ...
Sea-level rise directly caused by climate change is impacting coasts around the world and low-lying islands, requiring a continuous accurate monitoring. We analyze the sea-level data observed by 20 tide gauges located in the east coast of the United States of America (USA) over the period January 1972 to December 2021 by using an open-source toolbox SLR_APP. After mitigating noise using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Independent Component Analysis (ICA) method, we estimate the trend change and its uncertainty of sea-level considering the stochastic noise properties of the observations. The sea-level estimates and associated uncertainty are smaller than the raw observations after the noise reduction. Our results show that: the average values of the absolute trend change are 1.51 % and 0.82 %, and the mean trend uncertainty are reduced by 44.78 % and 21.26 % after PCA and ICA noise reduction, respectively. We conclude that PCA method performs better than ICA especially in reducing the associated trend uncertainty of the sea level change. Improving the sea-level rise estimation and prediction contribute globally to enhance public safety, in particular for the coastal communities. ARTICLE INFO Cite this article as: Wang J, He X, Hu S, Sun X, Wang W, Liu H: Comparative analysis of PCA and ICA on trend estimation of sea-level change from tide gauge observations.
... Projections point to the intensification of droughts, rising sea levels, and warming as a consequence of climate change on the northeastern coast of Brazil (Soares et al. 2021), which are likely to increase the salinization of groundwater, surface water, and soils (IPCC et al. 2019). The increase in aridity worldwide together with anthropogenic pressure will negatively impact ecosystems, altering their carbon dynamics (Bauer et al. 2013;Regnier et al. 2013). ...
This study quantified the seasonal and spatial variability of partial pressure of CO 2 ( p CO 2 ) and water‐atmosphere CO 2 fluxes in the Parnaíba River Delta, the largest delta in the Americas. It is a pristine equatorial, mangrove‐dominated environment located in a transitional between humid and semi‐arid climates, with marked seasonality in rainfall and river discharge. Major channels and bays were sampled during dry and wet seasons, with continuous measurements of p CO 2 , temperature, salinity, and wind velocity. Subsurface water samples were collected in discrete stations for pH, total alkalinity (TA), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll a quantification. A significant positive correlation between carbonate system parameters with salinity was found in both periods, with salinity significantly higher in the dry season. Strong deviations of p CO 2 , TA, and DIC from two endmembers conservative mixing were found, particularly in mangrove‐dominated waters, due to organic matter degradation. The Delta showed high spatial variability of p CO 2 , with the highest values in mangrove‐dominated waters, moderate in the river‐dominated regions, and lowest in the high salinity areas, suggesting that p CO 2 variability is likely controlled by a combination of river‐ocean mixing and biological processes (respiration and photosynthesis). The Delta outgasses about 20 times less CO 2 in the dry season (9.06 ± 11.09 mmol m ⁻² .d ⁻¹ ) than in the rainy season (209.68 ± 250.87 mmol m ⁻² d ⁻¹ ). Our results indicate this large mangrove‐dominated tropical delta is an important source of CO 2 to the atmosphere, but a sharp decrease was observed during dry periods.
... One of the most worrying long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change is sea-level rise due to mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (Oppenheimer et al., 2019;Fox-Kemper et al., 2021). It is also one of the most uncertain consequences, with the projected sea-level contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet in 2100 under highwarming scenarios ranging from −2.5 cm (the minus sign indicating a sea-level drop) to 17 cm . ...
Subglacial bed roughness is one of the main factors controlling the rate of future Antarctic ice-sheet retreat and also one of the most uncertain. A common technique to constrain the bed roughness using ice-sheet models is basal inversion, tuning the roughness to reproduce the observed present-day ice-sheet geometry and/or surface velocity. However, many other factors affecting ice-sheet evolution, such as the englacial temperature and viscosity, the surface and basal mass balance, and the subglacial topography, also contain substantial uncertainties. Using a basal inversion technique intrinsically causes any errors in these other quantities to lead to compensating errors in the inverted bed roughness. Using a set of idealised-geometry experiments, we quantify these compensating errors and investigate their effect on the dynamic response of the ice sheet to a prescribed forcing. We find that relatively small errors in ice viscosity and subglacial topography require substantial compensating errors in the bed roughness in order to produce the same steady-state ice sheet, obscuring the realistic spatial variability in the bed roughness. When subjected to a retreat-inducing forcing, we find that these different parameter combinations, which per definition of the inversion procedure result in the same steady-state geometry, lead to a rate of ice volume loss that can differ by as much as a factor of 2. This implies that ice-sheet models that use basal inversion to initialise their model state can still display a substantial model bias despite having an initial state which is close to the observations.
... In particular, coastal subsidence and uplift due to tectonics and other natural or anthropogenic factors, act at rates up to several mm yr −1 . These effects can change the amplitude and impact of the SL rise by locally increasing or reducing its effects on the coastal areas (Lambeck et al 2011, Bucx et al 2015, Higgins 2016, Vousdoukas et al 2018, Oppenheimer et al 2019, Scardino et al 2020, Anzidei et al 2021, Jevrejeva et al 2023. Since the SL rise is a major factor of hazard in coastal regions where cultural, socio-economic and environmental losses are already occurring (Syvitski et al 2009, Strauss et al 2014, Kulp and Strauss 2019, Horton et al 2020, Tay et al 2022, understanding and including the VLM in the SL projections for the next decades become crucial for a more detailed estimation of the flooding hazard and socio-economic consequences in coastal areas. ...
Vertical land movements (VLM) play a crucial role in affecting the sea level rise along the coasts. They need to be estimated and included in the analysis for more accurate Sea Level (SL) projections. Here we focus on the Mediterranean basin characterized by spatially variable rates of VLM that affect the future SL along the coasts. To estimate the VLM rates we used geodetic data from continuous GNSS stations with time series longer than 4.5 years in the 1996-2023 interval, belonging to Euro-Mediterranean networks and located within 5 km from the coast. Revised SL projections up to the year 2150 are provided at 265 points on a geographical grid and at the locations of 51 tide gauges of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, by including the estimated VLM in the SL projections released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the AR6 Report. Results show that the IPCC projections underestimate future SL along the coasts of the Mediterranean Sea since the effects of tectonics and other local factors were not properly considered. Here we show that revised SL projections at 2100, when compared to the IPCC, show a maximum and minimum differences of 1094 ±103 mm and -773±106 mm, respectively, with an average value that exceeds by about 80 mm that of the IPCC in the reference Shared Socio-economic Pathways and different global warming levels. Finally, the projections indicate that about 19.000 km2 of the considered Mediterranean coasts will be more exposed to risk of inundation for the next decades, leading to enhanced impacts on the environment, human activities and infrastructures, thus suggesting the need for concrete actions to support vulnerable populations to adapt to the expected SL rise and coastal hazards by the end of this century.
... The Greenland ice sheet is the second largest body of ice on Earth and 3900 Gt of ice mass has been lost in 1992-2017, increasing the mean sea level by 10.6 mm [5]. In the future, the rise in sea level will only become worse, as Greenland is expected to contribute another 4-27 cm [6], with more severe impacts in the long-term [7]. In total, the loss of the Greenland ice sheet could contribute to more than 7 m of global mean sea level rise [8]. ...
Climate change-driven temperature rise in the Arctic has been shown to increase faster than on global average, heavily affecting Greenland's environment. Greenland's energy system is very vulnerable to oil prices, as it relies on imported oil. Rich wind resources complementary with solar resources may enable a transition to a sustainable and self-sufficient energy system. Greenland's transition from a fossil fuels-based system to a 100% renewable energy system between 2019 and 2050 and its position as a potential e-fuels and e-chemicals production hub for Europe, Japan, and South Korea, has been investigated in this study using the EnergyPLAN model. The results indicate a 25% reduction in annualised costs for a fully renewable energy system compared to the reference system. Importing regions can benefit from some of the lowest-cost energy carriers in the world in 2030, and these energy carriers will continue to have a low-cost level in 2050. This study estimates that the production and export of e-fuels and e-chemicals would require up to 300,000 workers for construction and operations. Renewable energy enables a full defossilisation of Greenland's energy system, enhances energy security, and provides opportunities for additional export revenues of up to 61 b€ annually.
... The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) melting has the potential to raise the global mean sea level (GMSL) by 58 m, and even a slight sea-level rise has direct societal and economic implications for coastal areas (Bars et al 2017, Oppenheimer et al 2019. Therefore, estimating its mass changes and understanding the driving factors is crucial. ...
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is susceptible to global climate change, and its mass loss has been 92 ± 18 Gt/yr between 1992 and 2020. Given the current intensive global warming, we investigate the AIS mass changes from January 2003 to December 2022, using the newly released satellite gravimetry and atmospheric datasets. The results show that the continuous mass loss in the AIS between 2003 and 2020 was 141.8 ± 55.6 Gt/yr. However, the AIS showed a record-breaking mass gain of 129.7 ± 69.6 Gt/yr between 2021 and 2022. During this period, the mass gain over the East AIS and Antarctic Peninsula was unprecedented within the past two decades, and it outpaced the mass loss in the Amundsen sector of the West AIS from 2003 to 2022. Basin-scale analysis shows that the mass gain mainly occurred over Wilhelm II Land, Queen Mary Land, Wilkes Land, and the Antarctic Peninsula due to anomalously enhanced precipitation. Further investigation reveals that during 2021–2022, a pair of symmetrically distributed high-low pressure systems, located at approximately 120°W and 60°E in the Southern Ocean, drove the observed abnormal precipitation and mass accumulation.
In a time of pandemics and climate pressures, social sustainability has become a crucial issue within diverse sectors and disciplines. This article endeavors to enrich the discourse on social sustainability, particularly concerning community efforts, in contrast to large-scale private investments employed as catalysts for enhancing attraction and territorial development. This article critically examines the case of the Delta Po area along the Eastern Adriatic coast in Italy, where several “ordinary cities” are situated, featured in a similar urbanization pattern to the nearby Venetian Metropolitan areas, identified by B. Secchi as “ città diffusa .” To comprehend the significance of ordinary cities, this article delves into a comparative analysis between an ordinary setting, specifically the village of Massenzatica, and an extraordinary one, exemplified by the Porto Tolle power plant. These two contrasting approaches to utilizing the territory are assessed through a qualitative methodology in order to understand the factors that contribute to enhancing social and territorial sustainability.
We present a framework for developing storylines of UK sea level rise to aid risk communication and coastal adaptation planning. Our approach builds on the UK national climate projections (UKCP18) and maintains the same physically consistent methods that preserve component correlations and traceability between global mean sea level (GMSL) and local relative sea level (RSL). Five example storylines are presented that represent singular trajectories of future sea level rise drawn from the underlying large Monte Carlo simulations. The first three storylines span the total range of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) likely range GMSL projections across the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The final two storylines are based upon recent high-end storylines of GMSL presented in AR6 and the recent literature. Our results suggest that even the most optimistic sea level rise outcomes for the UK will require adaptation of up to 1 m of sea level rise for large sections of coastline by 2300. For the storyline most consistent with current international greenhouse gas emissions pledges and a moderate sea level rise response, UK capital cities will experience between about 1 and 2 m of sea level rise by 2300, with continued rise beyond 2300. The storyline based on the upper end of the AR6 likely range sea level projections yields much larger values for UK capital cities that range between about 3 and 4 m at 2300. The two high-end scenarios, which are based on a recent study that showed accelerated sea level rise associated with ice sheet instability feedbacks, lead to sea level rise for UK capital cities at 2300 that range between about 8 m and 17 m. These magnitudes of rise would pose enormous challenges for UK coastal communities and are likely to be beyond the limits of adaptation at some locations.
Global climate change in recent years has resulted in significant changes in sea levels at both global and local scales. Various oceanic and climatic factors play direct and indirect roles in influencing sea level changes, such as temperature, ocean heat, and Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. This study examined time series analysis models, specifically Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) and Facebook’s prophet, in forecasting the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL). Additionally, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was utilized to investigate the influence of selected oceanic and climatic factors contributing to sea level rise, including ocean heat, air temperature, and GHG emissions. Moreover, the models were applied to regional sea level data from the Arabian Gulf, which experienced higher fluctuations compared to GMSL. Results showed the capability of autoregressive models in long-term forecasting, while the Prophet model excelled in capturing trends and patterns in the time series over extended periods of time.
Projecting the man-made climate-change-caused mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets requires models that can accurately describe the physics of flowing ice, and its interactions with the atmosphere, the ocean, and the solid Earth. As the irreducible uncertainty in many of these processes can only be explored by running large numbers of simulations to sample the phase-space of possible physical parameters, the computational efficiency and user-friendliness of such a model are just as relevant to its applicability as is its physical accuracy. Here, we present and verify version 2.0 of the Utrecht Finite Volume Ice-Sheet Model (UFEMISM). UFEMISM is a state-of-the-art finite-volume model which applies an adaptive grid in both space and time. Since the first version was published two years ago, v2.0 has added more accurate approximations to the Stokes flow, more sliding laws, different schemes for calculating the ice thickness rates of change, a more numerically stable time-stepping scheme, more flexible and powerful mesh generation code, and a more generally applicable discretisation scheme. The parallelisation scheme has changed from a shared-memory architecture to distributed memory, enabling the user to utilise more computational resources. The version control system includes automated unit tests and benchmark experiments, to aid with model development, as well as automated installation of the required libraries, improving both user comfort and reproducibility of results. The i/o now follows the NetCDF-4 standard, including automated remapping between regular grids and irregular meshes, reducing user workload for pre- and post-processing. These additions and improvements make UFEMISM v2.0 a powerful, flexible ice-sheet model, that can be used for long palaeoglaciological applications, as well as large ensemble simulations for future projections of ice-sheet retreat, and which is ready to be used for coupling within earth system models.
Lakes and ponds experience anthropogenically forced changes that may be non-linear and sometimes initiate ecosystem feedbacks leading to tipping points beyond which impacts become hard to reverse. In many cases climate change is a key driver, sometimes in concert with other stressors. Lakes are also important players in the global climate by ventilating a large share of terrestrial carbon (C) back to the atmosphere as greenhouse gases and will likely provide substantial feedbacks to climate change. In this paper we address various major changes in lake ecosystems and discuss if tipping points can be identified, predicted, or prevented, as well as the drivers and feedbacks associated with climate change. We focus on potential large-scale effects with regional or widespread impacts, such as eutrophication-driven anoxia and internal phosphorus (P) loading, increased loading of organic matter from terrestrial to lake ecosystems (lake "browning"), lake formation or disappearance in response to cryosphere shifts or changes in precipitation to evaporation ratios, switching from nitrogen to phosphorus limitation, salinization, and the spread of invasive species where threshold-type shifts occur. We identify systems and drivers that could lead to self-sustaining feedbacks, abrupt changes, and some degree of resilience, as opposed to binary states not subject to self-propelling changes or resilience. Changes driven by warming, browning, and eutrophication can cause increased lake stratification, heterotrophy (browning), and phytoplank-ton or macrophyte mass (eutrophication), which separately or collectively drive benthic oxygen depletion and internal phosphorus loading and in turn increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Several of these processes can feature potential tipping point thresholds, which further warming will likely make easier to surpass. We argue that the full importance of the vulnerability of lakes to climate and other anthropogenic impacts, as well as their feedback to climate, is not yet fully acknowledged, so there is a need both for science and communication in this regard.
This chapter examines the complex relationship between climate change and the fate of radioactivity in the environment. Addressing the causes and effects of climate change, including rising temperatures, severe storms, altered biodiversity, and increased droughts, the chapter explores how these changes influence the fate and behavior of radioactivity in the environment. Discussion on the effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics, animal behavior, and the physiology of biota is also presented and the effects of different changes caused by climate change on radioactivity uptake by plants and biota is also explored. Overall, this chapter aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the intersection between climate change and radioactivity and can serve as a valuable resource for researchers and policymakers.
Climate change is a nuanced global issue with a scope that is often difficult to fully appreciate. This study examined an undergraduate course focused on the impacts and responses to climate change on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, USA. The course utilized a socioscientific issues (SSI) approach to examine global climate change in a local context that allowed for a deeper understanding of the inequitable impacts on humans and the environment. As part of the class, students were immersed in a 6-day field experience in the Outer Banks to investigate the challenges facing the barrier islands where they visited five sites and used augmented reality (AR) to learn about the impact of climate change at those respected locations. After each experience, the course instructors debriefed with the students to help make sense of the experiences and promote deeper understanding of the issue. Four weeks later, the class immersed in virtual reality (VR) to revisit the same five sites using the same information provided in the AR. Using a constant comparative and inductive analyzes using keywords in context, results suggest both AR and VR enhanced learning experiences. Findings indicated that the students generally felt that the VR experience was a suitable alternative, with the caveat that it cannot replace being immersed in the location, that both technologies increased their engagement, and increased their learning. Conversely, some students reported that the technology impeded their learning.
Flooding represents the greatest natural threat to the UK, presenting severe risk to populations along coastlines and floodplains through extreme tidal surge and hydrometeorological events. Climate change is projected to significantly elevate flood risk through increased severity and frequency of occurrences, which will be exacerbated by external drivers of risk such as property development and population growth throughout floodplains. This investigation explores the entire flood hazard modelling chain, utilising the nonparametric bias correction of UKCP18 regional climate projections, the distributed HBV-TYN hydrological model and HEC-RAS hydraulic model to assess future manifestation of flood hazard within the Broadland Catchment, UK. When assessing the independent impact of extreme river discharge and storm surge events as well as the impact of a compound event of the two along a high emission scenario, exponential increases in hazard extent over time were observed. The flood extent increases from 197 km² in 1990 to 200 km² in 2030, and 208 km² in 2070. In parallel, exponential population exposure increases were found from 13,917 (1990) to 14,088 (2030) to 18,785 (2070). This methodology could see integration into policy-based flood risk management by use of the developed hazard modelling tool for future planning and suitability of existing infrastructure at a catchment scale.
The glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) play an important role in ocean dynamics, global climate, and ecology. During recent decades, the AP has become an important contributor to sea-level rise. Despite this, the ice discharge, mass balance, and total volume of the region remain unclear. Furthermore, although the glaciers in the Antarctic periphery currently contribute modestly to sea-level rise, their contribution is projected to increase substantially until the end of the 21st century. This thesis aims to develop data processing and analysis methods that allow us to generate novel updated glacier data for the Antarctic Peninsula region. This is achieved using satellite remote sensing techniques such as radar and optical images, and also numerical models to infer the ice-thickness distribution of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet (APIS), with the goal of improving ice-discharge and total ice volume estimates for this region. The fundamentals of remote sensing are presented, including techniques such as synthetic aperture radar (SAR), InSAR, DInSAR, and offset-tracking. Optical imagery and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) techniques are also presented. We then focus on glacier flow modeling, describing the governing equations (mass and momentum conservation, rheology) and approximations such as shallow ice and perfect plasticity, used to infer the ice thickness of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet (APIS). The South Shetland Islands (SSI), located north of the Antarctic Peninsula, lack a geodetic mass balance calculation for the entire archipelago. Therefore, we estimate its geodetic mass balance over the period 2013-2017. Our estimation is based on remotely-sensed multispectral and interferometric SAR data covering 96% of the glacierized areas of the islands considered in our study and 73% of the total glacierized area of the SSI. Our results show a close to balance, slightly negative average specific mass balance for the whole area of −0.106 ± 0.007 m w.e. a⁻¹, and a mass change rate of −238 ± 12 Mt a⁻¹. These results are consistent with a wider scale geodetic mass balance estimation and with glaciological mass balance measurements at SSI locations for the same study period. They are also compatible with the cooling trend observed in the region between 1998 and the mid-2010s. We computed the ice discharge from the APIS north of 70ºS for the five most widely used ice-thickness reconstructions, using a common surface velocity field and a common set of flux gates. In this way, the differences in ice discharge can be solely attributed to the differences in ice thickness at the flux gates. The total volumetric ice discharge for 2015-2017 ranges within 45-141 km³ a⁻¹, depending on the ice-thickness model, with a mean of 87 ± 44 km³ a⁻¹. The substantial differences between the ice-discharge results and a multi-model normalized root-mean-squared deviation of 0.91 for the whole data set, reveal large differences and inconsistencies between the ice-thickness models. This makes evident the scarcity of appropriate ice-thickness measurements and the difficulty of the current models to reconstruct the ice-thickness distribution in this complex region. Motivated by this uncertainty about the ice-thickness distribution, we used a finite element method to infer the ice thickness in the APIS north of 70ºS applying a two-step approach. The first step uses two different assumptions, namely, the shallow ice approximation (SIA) and the perfect plasticity (PP). The second step then uses the mass conservation equation to estimate the thickness in fast-flowing regions, with the aim of overcoming the limitations of SIA and PP near the glacier termini. Manual adjustment of glacier outlines and new ways to deal with rheological parameters along the margins provided further improvements. The application of the model at our study site resulted in a total ice volume of 28.7 ± 6.8 103 km³ and an ice discharge of 95.0 ± 14.3 km³ a⁻¹.
Sea level rise due to climate change is an ongoing process that will continue for centuries and millennia. In response to this, France is increasingly considering sea level rise in its coastal risks and land use policies. Here, we show that despite real progress in coastal adaptation policies made so far, major challenges remain. We report progress regarding the consideration of ongoing erosion and flooding during storms, in particular owing to an evolving national regulation increasingly supporting the implementation of a nationally defined integrated coastal zones management strategy. Yet, chronic flooding at high-tides in ports and cities expected to emerge in the 2030s, as well as permanent flooding and shoreline retreat projected to take place within centuries without major protection works remain largely unaddressed to date. Major questions remain in terms of adaptation finance and other measures supporting coastal adaptation such as climate services. Finally, the topic of coastal adaptation lacks connections with the broader context of transformations needed to address climate change, biodiversity losses, and meet the sustainable development goals. The case of France exemplifies how an evolving adaptation planning, which takes decades to implement, can ultimately fall short of effectively addressing major transformational challenges and achieving climate resilient development. We argue that a clear and transparent public debate on climate change and the nature of solutions could help bridge the gap between ongoing adaptation and transformative measures in line with the challenges.
Low-lying islands are vulnerable to coastal erosion, and mangroves, which can mitigate erosion, have suffered enormous losses in recent decades owing to human impacts. Previous studies have little investigated mangrove shores on atolls, which may face combined multiple threats. We analysed the large Marshall Islands atoll of Jaluit, at a higher resolution than previous spatial change studies, finding that mangrove shorelines prograded seawards over the last seven decades. Biogeomorphic colonisation processes were characterised from transects along ~ 14.6 km of shorelines. Mangrove progradation occurred in patterns of arc-shapes evident of long-shore drift deposition, patch expansion of offshore mangrove colonisers, and linear shoreline advance. Significant differences in the rates of expansion were identified, with arc-shaped colonisation showing the fastest rates of expansion. However, linear shoreline advance was the most frequent expansion pattern showing greater than threefold more classified transects than arc-shaped colonisation and patch expansion. These results have implications for low island mangrove restoration. Applying mangrove planting patterns mimicking these different natural colonisation processes may enhance restoration success in ecosystem-based adaptation projects to mitigate sea level rise vulnerability. Results from this study show that atoll mangrove shorelines demonstrate resilience during past sea level rise rates, and that rates of expansion vary according to patterns of biogeomorphic colonisation.
Fishery includes farmed fisheries and wild fisheries; of which, wild fisheries are comprised of marine and freshwater fisheries that provide an important source of food, nutrition, employment and income, mostly in the developing countries including India. However, now-a-days, environmental factors, such as climate change, global warming, heat stress, unpredictable weather patterns, ecological imbalance, etc., causes either direct, or indirect effects on the fishery and fish processing industry; thus, encompass numerous challenges to the quality of life (QoL) of the target communities. Also, the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere through man-made activities worsen the situation. Besides, occupational exposure is another major factor due to physical, chemical, biological and psychological stressors that affect the overall productivity of this informal sector. Globally, millions of people are employed in the fishery and fish processing industry though women are the majority in the fish processing work in the developing countries; thereby it demands need-based support programs, national policies and action plans for the benefit of the stakeholders. Further, industry's resilience is dependent on the effective governance, sustainable practices and strong mitigation strategies, where fishing industry is not an exception. Hence, the present book chapter scrutinizes a wide range of environmental and occupational issues confronting the QoL of the communities, as well as explores the potential strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change and occupational hazards in the fisherfolk and fish processing communities.
Improving our understanding of the controls on Antarctic precipitation is critical for gaining insights into past and future polar and global environmental changes. Here we develop innovative water tracing diagnostics in the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6. These tracers provide new detailed information on moisture source locations and properties of Antarctic precipitation. In the preindustrial simulation, annual mean Antarctic precipitation originating from the open ocean has a source latitude range of 49–35∘ S, a source sea surface temperature range of 9.8–16.3 ∘C, a source 2 m relative humidity range of 75.6 %–83.3 %, and a source 10 m wind velocity (vel10) range of 10.1 to 11.3 m s−1. These results are consistent with estimates from existing literature. Central Antarctic precipitation is sourced from more equatorward (distant) sources via elevated transport pathways compared to coastal Antarctic precipitation. This has been attributed to a moist isentropic framework; i.e. poleward vapour transport tends to follow constant equivalent potential temperature. However, we find notable deviations from this tendency especially in the lower troposphere, likely due to radiative cooling. Heavy precipitation is sourced by longer-range moisture transport: it comes from 2.9∘ (300 km, averaged over Antarctica) more equatorward (distant) sources compared to the rest of precipitation. Precipitation during negative phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) also comes from more equatorward moisture sources (by 2.4∘, averaged over Antarctica) compared to precipitation during positive SAM phases, likely due to amplified planetary waves during negative SAM phases. Moreover, source vel10 of annual mean precipitation is on average 2.1 m s−1 higher than annual mean vel10 at moisture source locations from which the precipitation originates. This shows that the evaporation of moisture driving Antarctic precipitation occurs under windier conditions than average. We quantified this dynamic control of Southern Ocean surface wind on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation. Overall, the innovative water tracing diagnostics enhance our understanding of the controlling factors of Antarctic precipitation.
The coastal zone is a constantly changing area and is one of the most vulnerable one because of climate crisis. In addition to the high concentration of population in coastal areas, there is also high activity in sectors such as tourism, trade and work. Increasing storms and Sea Level Rise (SLR) are likely to cause future flooding in coastal areas, bringing about significant changes in these ecosystems. The threats posed by coastal erosion are very significant, as more than 100 million people live within one meter of mean sea level, meaning that in the coming decades they will have to deal with issues of immigration, finance, social and environmental issues. This paper is an attempt to highlight the magnitude of the problem of coastal erosion, while at the same time a typical case of a coastal zone in the center of the Aegean (Greece) is examined through interpretation of collected data, mapping of the area and geospatial analysis. The results present both its future development based on different climate change scenarios, and based on different scenarios of anthropogenic activities and interventions. At the same time, methods of natural self-protection of the coastal zone against coastal erosion and sea level rise are discussed.
The Southern Ocean plays a major role in controlling the evolution of Antarctic glaciers and in turn their impact on sea level rise. We present the Southern Ocean high‐resolution (SOhi) simulation of the MITgcm ocean model to reproduce ice‐ocean interaction at 1/24° around Antarctica, including all ice shelf cavities and oceanic tides. We evaluate the model accuracy on the continental shelf using Marine Mammals Exploring the Oceans Pole to Pole data and compare the results with three other MITgcm ocean models (ECCO4, SOSE, and LLC4320) and the ISMIP6 temperature reconstruction. Below 400 m, all the models exhibit a warm bias on the continental shelf, but the bias is reduced in the high‐resolution simulations. We hypothesize some of the bias is due to an overestimation of sea ice cover, which reduces heat loss to the atmosphere. Both high‐resolution and accurate bathymetry are required to improve model accuracy around Antarctica.
Global warming has led to rising sea levels, severely threatening coastal areas, particularly in low-elevation coastal zones. The groundwater in coastal aquifers of lower elevation is susceptible to groundwater inundation (GWI), an emerging hidden long-term hazard earlier to marine inundation. The inundation is mainly due to the hydraulic connection between sea level and shallow unconfined aquifers, resulting in groundwater upsurging towards the ground surface. To understand the potential impact of sea level rise (SLR) induced GWI on low-lying coasts, a transient state model was simulated and predicted in the Cuddalore regions of South India under 0.3 m, 0.6 m, and 1 m SLR scenarios. The simulation reveals that the aerial extent of groundwater rise (GWR) was 331.9 km2, 566.2 km2, and 650.8 km2 for 0.3 m, 0.6 m, and 1 m SLR scenarios, respectively. About 50 % of the response was observed in the northern and central parts of the study area within a 5 km buffer, which is attributed to the deeper groundwater table. In contrast, the southern region exhibited a 10 % decline in response due to shallow groundwater discharge to drainage, which dampened the shoaling effect. The present-day shallow groundwater tables in the southern region are more vulnerable to GWI from rising sea levels.
Specifically, a 0.3 m SLR could inundate 14.9 km2. In comparison, a 1 m SLR could inundate 40.5 km2 of the area, including the Pichavaram mangrove forest, agricultural land, municipal structures, and the other regions that flooding could threaten. These inundations could have potential impacts, such as wetland loss, agricultural flooding, deteriorating water quality, and infrastructural damage. The present study provides valuable insights into the subsurface hydrodynamic and exposure impacts of sea rise-induced inundations. This can aid coastal engineers, policymakers, and decision-makers to plan appropriate mitigation measures.
Objective:
The daily maximum temperature and seawater level continuously increase as global warming continues. We examined the adaptability and production performance of heat-stressed goats with a supply of low-saline drinking water.
Methods:
Twelve Kacang and Kacang Etawah cross goats were exposed to two climatic conditions (control, 25 to 33°C, 83% relative humidity (RH), temperature humidity index (THI): 76 to 86 and hot environment, 26 to 39°C, 81% RH, THI: 77 to 94) and two salt levels in drinking water (0 and 0.4% NaCl). The experimental design was a Latin Square (4×4) with four treatments and four periods (28 days each).
Results:
Temperature of the rectal, skin, and udder, and respiration rate rose, reached a maximum level on the first day of heat exposures, and then recovered. Plasma sodium rose at 0.4% NaCl level, while the hot environment and salinity treatments increased the drinking water to dry matter (DM) intake ratio. Water excretion was elevated in the hot environment but lowered by the increase in salinity. Total lying time increased, whereas change position frequency decreased in the hot condition. Lying and ruminating and total ruminating time increased and explained the enhanced DM digestibility in the hot conditions.
Conclusion:
The goats exhibited a high level of plasma sodium as salinity increased, and they demonstrated physiological and behavioral alterations while maintaining their production performances under increasing daily maximum temperatures.
We present a global wind wave climate model ensemble composed of eight spectral wave model simulations forced by 3-hourly surface wind speed and daily sea ice concentration from eight different CMIP6 GCMs. The spectral wave model uses ST6 physics parametrizations and a global three-grid structure for efficient Arctic and Antarctic wave modeling. The ensemble performance is evaluated against a reference global multi-mission satellite altimeter database and the recent ECMWF IFS Cy46r1 ERA5 wave hindcast, ERA5H. For each ensemble member three 30-year slices, one historical, and two future emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) are available, and cover two distinct periods: 1985–2014 and 2071–2100. Two models extend to 140 years (1961–2100) of continuous wind wave climate simulations. The present ensemble outperforms a previous CMIP5-forced wind wave climate ensemble, showing improved performance across all ocean regions. This dataset is a valuable resource for future wind wave climate research and can find practical applications in offshore and coastal engineering projects, providing crucial insights into the uncertainties connected to wind wave climate future projections.
В 2022–2023 годах в Международный трибунал по морскому праву, Международный Суд и Межамериканский суд по правам человека поступили запросы о вынесении консультативных заключений об обязательствах государств по защите климатической системы Земли от антропогенных выбросов парниковых газов. За официальными формулировками запросов скрывается вопрос о том, сформировалась ли международно-правовая норма, обязывающая государства действовать более амбициозно в сфере смягчения антропогенного воздействия на выбросы парниковых газов, чем это предусматривает Парижское соглашение и поданные к настоящему времени «определяемые на национальном уровне вклады» (далее — ОНУВ). На аналогичный вопрос, но в сфере внутригосударственного права, уже успели ответить суды ряда государств. Самыми известными являются решения нидерландских судебных инстанций, которые предписали нидерландскому государству обеспечить сокращение совокупных выбросов парниковых газов страны к концу 2020 года до уровня на 25 % ниже 1990 года, а крупнейшему юридическому лицу страны Royal Dutch Shell — сократить выбросы CO2 по всей товаропроводящей цепи к концу 2030 года до уровня на 45 % ниже 2019 года. В основу исковых требований истцов и решений судов по таким делам ложатся, прежде всего, доклады Межправительственной группы экспертов по изменению климата (далее — МГЭИК) AR4, AR5 и SR15 и содержащиеся в них оценки о необходимых уровнях сокращения выбросов. Но если остроту климатической проблемы внутригосударственные суды оценивают одинаково, их выводы относительно юридических обязанностей государств разнятся. Решения нидерландских судов, полностью заимствовавших цифры сокращений из докладов МГЭИК, являются скорее исключением, чем правилом. В статье рассмотрены различные подходы внутригосударственных судов к толкованию обязанности государств в сфере сокращения выбросов парниковых газов: описаны мотивы, положенные судами Нидерландов в основание вышеупомянутых постановлений, и представлена альтернативная точка зрения судов иных государств, в частности Конституционного суда Германии и судов первой и апелляционной инстанции Брюсселя (Бельгия). Сделаны выводы о том, какие вопросы, вероятно, встанут перед международными судами при вынесении консультативных заключений в свете рассмотренной практики внутригосударственных судов.
Worldwide, marine conflicts are growing in frequency and intensity due to increasing global demands for resources (Blue Growth) and climate change. This article introduces a collection in Maritime Studies on marine conflicts and pathways to sustainability in an era of Blue Growth and climate change. We posit that while conflict can be problematic, it can also play a positive role in bringing about societal change, by highlighting unsustainable and unjust practices and be a trigger for sustainability transformation. However, left unattended, festering marine conflict can hinder just and equitable sustainability transformation. We present two distinct, yet arguably complementary, lenses through which researchers working with sustainability engage with marine conflicts. First, a social-ecological systems approach engages in conflicts by examining the interdependencies between human and ecological systems and related governance arrangements, promoting collaborative learning and action, and exploring adaptive governance strategies that seek sustainability conflict resolution. Second, a political ecology approach addresses conflicts by examining power dynamics and resource (mal)distributions, arguing for fair governance, and emphasizing the need to address historical and current injustices that are at the root of conflicts. Next, we present insights on diverse sustainability transformational pathways, including the importance of searching for common ground and the need for the reconfiguration of power relations as key steps to understand and inform sustainability conflict research. We conclude by indicating that more sustainability research in marine conflict settings is needed and by forwarding intersectionality as a promising approach to productively reframe and disrupt the debilitating effects of deep-rooted marine sustainability conflicts.
Charroux, S.; Jeanson, M.; Morisseau, S., and Pennober, G., 2024. Seasonal morphodynamics of fringing reef pocket beaches and responses to rapid vertical tectonic movements. Journal of Coastal Research, 40(1), 31–50. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208.
Determining the morphological response of coastal environments to a general rise in sea level constitutes one of this century's greatest challenges. In 2018–19, Mayotte, a coral reef–fringed island in the Indian Ocean, underwent a volcanic crisis that resulted in island subsidence of up to 0.2 m. This seismo-volcanic crisis made the island an ideal workshop site to observe the response of pocket beaches to sea-level variations. Morphodynamic analyses were carried out on three beaches located on different sides of the island on a biannual basis between 2019 and 2022. Analysis of these survey data showed that the alternation between monsoon and trade winds led to a seasonal rotation of the beaches. Furthermore, the central profiles did not appear to be affected by seasonal variations. As result, they were used to characterize subsidence-related impacts. When the pre- and postsubsidence profiles were compared, morphological changes were not noticeable. However, the rise in the sea level caused by subsidence led to an increase in the frequency of spring flooding at high tide in certain areas of low-lying beaches and roads on the densely populated NE coast of the archipelago, the area most affected by this tectonic movement.
Climate change will push the planet worryingly close to its boundaries, across all latitudes and levels of development. One question therefore is the extent to which climate change does (and will) severely affect societies' livelihoods, health, well-being, and cultures. This paper discusses the "severe climate risks" concept developed under Working Group II's contribution to the Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR5, and AR6). Focusing on low-lying coastal socio-ecological systems (LCS) and acknowledging that attempts to define "severe" climate risk have been problematic at the level of global syntheses, we argue for a more place-and people-based framing relating to "habitability under a changing climate." We summarize habitability in terms of five habitability pillars: land, freshwater, food, settlement and infrastructure, and economic and subsistence activities; we acknowledge social and cultural factors (including perceptions, values, governance arrangements, human agency, power structures) as critical underlying factors rather than as separate pillars. We further develop the habitability framing and examine climate risk to future human health and habitability for three climate "hotspot" archetypes (arctic coasts, atoll islands, densely populated urban areas). Building on the IPCC AR6 framing of severe climate risks, we discuss three key parameters describing severe climate risks in LCS: the point of irreversibility of changes, physical and socio-ecological thresholds, and cascading effects across various habitability dimensions. We also highlight the variability of severe risk conditions both between coastal archetypes and within each of them. Further work should consist of refining the case study framing to find the right balance between capturing context-specificities through real-world local case studies and commonalities derived from more generic archetypes. In addition, there is a need to identify appropriate methods to assess irreversibility, thresholds, and cascading effects, and thus severe climate risks to habitability.
The effects of climate change impact humanity diversely, posing a great danger to the fundamental components of health and well-being, including clean air, safe drinking water, wholesome food, secure housing as well as outbreaks of pandemics. This threat to global health could potentially overwhelm health systems, particularly during crisis if not resilient enough to cope with challenges in providing essential services as witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic which greatly exposed health systems hitherto considered strong. To identify government policies and programs supportive of a climate-resilient health system, a documentary review was carried out between 2012 and 2022 to analyse policy measures that could potentially contribute to developing and sustaining a health system capable of resiliently responding to health needs. A total of 54 articles were identified. After the articles were deduplicated, the title and abstract were checked, and 42 articles were further screened using full text. Of these, 11 met the eligibility requirements for inclusion in the final analysis. The existing policy measures were broadly categorized at the system and agency level and the level of the population. The climate change adaptation and mitigation policy measures have significant potential for health system resilience worthy of emulation as they aim to strengthen health related systems and agencies and are sensitive to healthcare needs population wide.
The Arctic region is facing growing demands for energy to support various economic activities, while also grappling with the profound impacts of climate change. Black carbon particulate matter emissions reduction is a key objective to mitigate the susceptibility of the Arctic’s ecosystems to the impact of climate change. Nuclear power has been suggested as a potential source of clean energy to decarbonize maritime transport in the Arctic. However, although the operation of nuclear-powered vessels and floating nuclear power platforms in the region ensures energy security and reduces black carbon emissions, it may pose significant risks of nuclear material release and radiological accidents and raise concerns about improper radioactive waste disposal. In regulating these nuclear-powered vessels and floating nuclear power platforms in the Arctic, the existing international legal regime faced a series of challenges. This research employs a method of policy analysis to analyze these legal challenges and explores how the international community could work together to cope with the challenges that arise in the Arctic during the operation of nuclear-powered vessels and platforms for maritime decarbonization purposes.
Coastal zones are more densely populated and of great ecological and economic significance. The potential implications of climate change are greatest in areas with dense populations and associated economic activities, such as low-lying coastal cities. Few, if any, African coastal cities are prepared to deal with the impacts of climate change, particularly sea level rise and storm events. African coastal cities are characterized by rapid and unplanned growth, high population concentrations, and overburdened infrastructure, all of which will influence the extent of any possible consequences caused by changes in extreme water levels in the twenty-first century. Most of the African coastal cities currently face significant threats from direct and indirect impacts of climate variability and change. Despite these threats, few coastal cities have been assessed for potential coastal impacts. Sea level rise threatens infrastructure, coastal agriculture, key ecosystems and fisheries at risk. Concern about all these effects of the changing climate and rising sea levels is apparent. This chapter, therefore, provides a broader understanding of the potential hazards and anticipated impacts on most African coastal systems and cities based on physical exposure and socio-economic vulnerability to climate extremes and sea level rise.
SLR could affect the waters of Palabuhanratu Bay, which are exposed to the Indian Ocean. Sea levels are rising due to RSL and ASL changes. RSL has increased by 22.86 mm/year based on tidal data for 2013–2022. In contrast, ASL has increased by 4.48 mm/year based on satellite altimetry data for 1992–2022. The research uses the linear regression method to get the SLR value. According to earlier studies, dynamic change elements connected to alterations in the atmosphere and ocean circulation are typically considered when analyzing sea level variations. This work explores sea-level variations, including dynamic and static changes impacted by geological processes like deformation. Dynamic change factors, such as climate anomalies, ENSO, and IOD, affect these changes. Regarding RSL changes, ENSO has a more decisive influence than IOD, and vice versa for ASL changes. In the La Nina phenomenon and negative IOD phase, RSL and ASL trend changes are enhanced, whereas they are lowered in the El Nino and positive IOD phases. These waters’ sea-level variations are only slightly impacted by local processes, such as VLM. It has a more decisive influence on RSL changes than ASL.
Ocean mass change is one of the main drivers of present-day sea-level change (SLC). Also known as barystatic SLC, ocean mass change is caused by the exchange of freshwater between the land and the ocean, such as melting of continental ice from glaciers and ice sheets, and variations in land water storage. While many studies have quantified the present-day barystatic contribution to global mean SLC, fewer works have looked into regional changes. This study provides an analysis of regional patterns of contemporary mass redistribution associated with barystatic SLC since 1993 (the satellite altimetry era), with a focus on the uncertainty budget. We consider three types of uncertainties: intrinsic (the uncertainty from the data/model itself), temporal (related to the temporal variability in the time series) and spatial–structural (related to the spatial distribution of the mass change sources). Regional patterns (fingerprints) of barystatic SLC are computed from a range of estimates of the individual freshwater sources and used to analyze the different types of uncertainty. Combining all contributions, we find that regional sea-level trends range from −0.4 to 3.3 mm yr−1 for 2003–2016 and from −0.3 to 2.6 mm yr−1 for 1993–2016, considering the 5–95th percentile range across all grid points and depending on the choice of dataset. When all types of uncertainties from all contributions are combined, the total barystatic uncertainties regionally range from 0.6 to 1.3 mm yr−1 for 2003–2016 and from 0.4 to 0.8 mm yr−1 for 1993–2016, also depending on the dataset choice. We find that the temporal uncertainty dominates the budget, responsible on average for 65 % of the total uncertainty, followed by the spatial–structural and intrinsic uncertainties, which contribute on average 16 % and 18 %, respectively. The main source of uncertainty is the temporal uncertainty from the land water storage contribution, which is responsible for 35 %–60 % of the total uncertainty, depending on the region of interest. Another important contribution comes from the spatial–structural uncertainty from Antarctica and land water storage, which shows that different locations of mass change can lead to trend deviations larger than 20 %. As the barystatic SLC contribution and its uncertainty vary significantly from region to region, better insights into regional SLC are important for local management and adaptation planning.
The mapping and inspection of underwater topography and infrastructure require precise and robust instrumentation which cannot be completely fulfilled by sonar or camera-based systems. At Fraunhofer IPM we have therefore built a versatile platform that implements all necessary building blocks for various laser scanner configurations targeted at subsea applications. Based on this platform, we present two scanner prototypes: One compact and lightweight multi-wavelength airborne laser scanner for deployment with unmanned aerial vehicles. It is intended for easy and fast shallow water bathymetric and topographic mapping. The second scanner is embedded in a pressure resistant housing and designed for submerged deployment on stationary or moving platforms to facilitate numerous inspection tasks. Initial tests of the scanners have been performed in an excavation pond and on a dedicated underwater measurement range. The resulting point clouds indicate promising performance in terms of resolution, accuracy, and speed. Further work will focus on extensive field tests and software optimization for increased usability.
Compound flooding conditions present a significant challenge for civil engineers in their pursuit to design for and maintain the integrity of a structure’s entire life cycle. Coupled with non-stationary processes due to a changing climate and land use change, risk is a moving target. Through the support of ASCE’s Task Committee on Compound Flooding, the Hydroclimatology Engineering Adaptation (HYDEA) sub-committee is developing a Manual of Practice (MOP) to provide a synthesis of available tools and methods of best practice for civil engineers designing for compound flooding conditions. This paper presents a primer for practicing civil engineers on this work. Hydrodynamic process-based models such as rainfall-runoff, riverine and coastal modeling as well as statistical models including multivariate statistical models will be addressed. In addition, the importance of linking statistical and process-based models and their various approaches is identified. The MOP also discusses addressing nonstationarity due to changing local and regional conditions and tools to assess risk and uncertainty.
The present work analyzes mean sea level (MSL) measurements recorded by a tide gauge installed at Ilha Fiscal (Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro, SE Brazil). For this purpose, a time series spanning 54 years (1963–2017) was processed and filtered for one (yearly averages), four, and twelve (monthly averages) elements per year. In addition, possible climate teleconnections were verified through the SOI, TSA, and AMM indices for the same period, resulting in non-existent or weak correlations. MSL trends were calculated using first, second, and third-degree polynomials. Sea level projections for 2100 were compared with scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The lowest MSL rising rate, 2.42 mm/year, was determined through linear regression (first-degree polynomial), with a slight deceleration from 1989 to 2016 (1.93 mm/year). The contours of possible future coastlines of the southern Rio de Janeiro area were drawn, illustrating the implications of shoreline retreat ranging between ~ 40 and ~ 500 m by 2100. In general, the projection for the end of this century points to relevant impacts on the studied area, including breaching the Marambaia barrier island central sector, where an opening as wide as 12–14 km could develop.
The Indian Peninsula is one of the most well-studied regions for Holocene sea-level fluctuations in
the world, however, standardized relative sea-level datasets are missing. This study provides an archive of sealevel indicators (n = 162, 20 locations) along the western and the eastern sides of the peninsula, that have
been used to develop Relative Sea Level (RSL) plots. Each dated sea-level indicator is recalibrated for its
elevation based on tidal and tectonic correction, as well as age with reservoir correction, and have been
separated into six zones based on coastal geomorphology and number of datasets. The database spans
throughout the Holocene and covers sea-level depth/elevations from −45 m to +5 m from mean sea-level
(MSL). Approximately 90 % of the dataset range from 8 ka to the present day. The first transgression is highly
variable and identified between 8.5 - 8 ka BP in Gujarat (Zone 1), ~ 5.5 ka BP in Maharashtra (Zone 2), between
8 and 7 ka BP in Tamil Nadu (Zone 4) and between 8 and 7.5 ka BP in the Bengal coasts (Zone 6). No transgression above present sea-level is observed along Andhra Pradesh (Zone 5) (no data for Kerala - Zone 3).
Further, Zones 1, 2, 4 and 6 show a strong uplift component (tectonic), whereas Zone 5 exhibits subsidence
during the Holocene (Zone 3-insufficient data). Based on these findings, and given the region's coastal
topography and tidal components, Zones 6 and 1 will likely undergo the largest coastal inundation, followed by
Zones 5, 4, 2, and 3. These insights are critical in planning future coastal inundation measures across the
Indian Peninsula.
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