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Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology
Vol. 39, No. 3, 668 - 677, July 2020
p-ISSN: 0254-7821, e-ISSN: 2413-7219
DOI: 10.22581/muet1982.2003.21
This is an open access article published by Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro under CC BY 4.0
International License.
668
Climate Change and Implications for Agriculture Sector in
Sindh Province of Pakistan
Heman Das Lohano1, Fateh Muhammad Mari2
RECEIVED ON 19.03.2019, ACCEPTED ON 03.05.2019
ABSTRACT
Pakistan is a highly vulnerable country in the world to climate change. It is ranked among the five most affected
countries in the world. Sindh, among the provinces of Pakistan, is located in the southern part and it stands to
suffer not only directly from local climatic and weather changes but also from the weather activities in the
upstream Indus River and from the coastal environments. This study aims to examine the past trend and future
projections of climate variables, assess the climate change impacts on agriculture sector, and recommend
adaptation measures for Sindh. The results show that there is statistically significant trend in the temperature
and precipitation in some parts of Sindh. The results from climate change projections show that the average
annual temperature in Sindh by the end of 21st century may increase by 2 to 5 0C depending on various emission
scenarios. Furthermore, the climate change in Sindh is likely to decrease productivity of agriculture and
household income. The study recommends infrastructural development, technological change, institutional
reforms, information sharing, and effective regulations to make agriculture sector and other related sectors
resilient to climate change.
Keywords: Climate change, agriculture, projections, impacts, adaptation, Sindh, Pakistan
1. INTRODUCTION
akistan is a highly vulnerable country in the
world in relation to climate change [1]. Global
Climate Risk Index 2020 report has ranked
Pakistan on number five among the most affected
countries in the world in terms of impacts of extreme
weather events during the period 1998–2018, with
average annual losses of 3.8 billion USD-PPP (0.53
percent of GDP) [2].
Sindh province of Pakistan is located in the intense
heat zone, and rise in temperatures due to climate
change can further aggravate the conditions.
Furthermore, Sindh is located in southern part of the
Indus River, and thus stands to suffer not only directly
from the local climatic and weather changes but also
from the weather activities in the upstream Indus River
and from the coastal environments [3]. Floods in Sindh
1 Department of Economics, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi. Email: hlohano@iba.edu.pk
2 Higher Education Commission, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Email: fateh.marri@hec.gov.pk (Corresponding Author)
have mostly been associated with precipitation and
excess flow of water from the upper part of Indus
River. Similarly, effects of shortage of water and
droughts in Sindh are aggravated with less
precipitation and less flow of water from the upper part
of Indus River. Furthermore, coastal areas of Sindh are
affected by sea intrusion and rising sea level in
Arabian Sea [3].
The vulnerability of agriculture sector is very high to
the climatic changes as variation in temperature and
precipitation directly affects the agricultural
production [4]. Various studies worldwide have been
conducted on the impacts of climate change on
agriculture, including studies on Pakistan [5-9]. Such
impacts are especially significant for Pakistan, where
agriculture sector accounts for 19.3 percent of GDP
and 38.5 percent of employment as reported in recent
Pakistan Economic Survey [10]. Agriculture sector
P
Climate Change and Implications for Agriculture Sector in Sindh Province of Pakistan
Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology, Vol. 39, No. 3, July 2020 [p-ISSN: 0254-7821, e-ISSN: 2413-7219]
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includes crops, livestock, fisheries, agro-forestry and
rangelands. Besides, agriculture is strongly linked
with other sectors in terms of its inputs and outputs
[11]. Many agro-based industries, such as textile,
leather and food processing, have direct or indirect
links to agriculture and its products. The change in
household income based on change in agro-based
income also affects the household consumer demand
for the products from the other remaining sectors.
Thus, climate change directly or indirectly impacts the
overall economy through the agriculture sector.
The local climate and weather changes in Sindh may
affect both crop yields and returns to farmers. By the
virtue of its geographical location and climate, Sindh
has been able to grow some crops, such as mangoes,
tomatoes, onion, wheat and other crops, one month
earlier than Punjab, and farmers in Sindh have
benefitted from this as market prices are generally
high in the beginning of crop season. However,
climate change and weather variability may change
this pattern resulting in uncertainty and riskier returns
to farmers. Due to diverse geography of Sindh, climate
and weather variability are likely to create a great deal
of uncertainty about agriculture sector and other
economic sectors that depend on agriculture, which
will have impacts on income, livelihood and poverty.
Thus, there is a need to identify policy measures that
would facilitate climate change adaptation measures in
Sindh to mitigate the negative impacts of climate
change on the agriculture sector and to avail
opportunities from any positive impacts arising from
climate change [12].
This study examines the past trend in climate variables
and provides projections of trend in the variables in
Sindh province of Pakistan. This study also reviews
the climate change implications for agriculture sector
and proposes adaptation strategies and options for
policy makers and other relevant stakeholders.
2. Data and Methods
The study examines past trend in climate variables
using data from 1961 to 2019. The data on temperature
and precipitation for different weather stations has
been obtained from Pakistan Meteorological
Department. The past trend in minimum temperature,
maximum temperature and precipitation has been
analyzed using linear regression model. Projections of
future climate changes are presented based on the
projected maps provided by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since climate
change impacts vary across time and space, the study
highlights the impacts of change in climatic conditions
on agriculture sector by reviewing cases documented
in literature for Sindh. For identifying potential
adaptation measures, the study reviews the literature
from Sindh and other provinces, and also reviews
international best practices, with focus on various
adaptive pathways adopted around the world.
3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The results on past trends and future projections of
climate variables, their impacts, and adaptation
measures for Sindh are presented in this section.
3.1 Past Trend in Climate Variables
Table 1 presents the station-wise trend in minimum
temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation
for different meteorological stations in Sindh. For each
station, we estimated linear regression model using
monthly data from 1961-2019 to examine the trend in
the weather variables. The table indicates ‘upward’ for
a positive trend coefficient and ‘downward’ for a
negative trend coefficient. The results show that at
every location there has been an upward trend in either
maximum or minimum temperature, or in both.
Similarly, an upward trend has been observed in
precipitation at most of the locations. Furthermore,
Table 1 shows a mixed pattern of both upward and
downward trends in temperature and precipitation but
statistically significant trend has been observed in the
temperature in some of the stations.
The previous study found an upward trend in area
weighted annual maximum temperature anomaly time
series over Sindh and also in other provinces of
Pakistan using data from 1960 to 2007 [13]. The
average annual temperature in Pakistan has increased
in the past century (1900-2000) by 0.6 °C, which is
statistically significant at 99% confidence level [14,
15]. These studies have also found an upward trend in
the precipitation in the past century, and more
deviation in the temperature and precipitation.
Furthermore, as cited in [3], the IPCC reports that sea
level has risen roughly at the rate of 1.5 to 2.0 mm/year
Climate Change and Implications for Agriculture Sector in Sindh Province of Pakistan
Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology, Vol. 39, No. 3, July 2020 [p-ISSN: 0254-7821, e-ISSN: 2413-7219]
670
during 20th century and continues to rise in 21st
century.
3.2 Projections of Trend in Climate Variables
Table 2 presents the projections of change in
temperature and precipitation in Sindh based on
authors’ extractions from the projections provided in
IPCC Assessment Report 5. The projections in
Assessment Report 5 are based on RCP
(Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios.
RCP is a latest addition to the IPCC scenarios that
provides input to climate models. There are four such
scenarios, based on the amount of emissions measured
by each scenario, RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP
2.6, which signify high, intermediate and low
emissions respectively. RCP 6 and 4.5 both indicate
intermediate emissions [16]. According to the
availability of projections provided in the report, the
findings of temperature and precipitation change are
displayed under each RCP and respective time-period.
Table 2 shows that under RCP 4.5 which entails
relatively ambitious fall in emissions, the temperature
is expected to rise during December – February (0.75
to 1.5 degrees) and June – August (0.5 to 1 degrees)
accompanied with some degree of variability, i.e.
standard deviation, in the medium term. Therefore, in
near future we expect increase not only in the average
temperature in Sindh but also the variation in
temperature. Precipitation in Sindh is expected to
increase by 0 to 20%. Similarly, under the same
scenario in long term, rise in temperature can go as
high as 2 to 3 degrees. Under RCP 6.0, which implies
the use of technology to reduce emissions, the annual
temperature change in long term can be between 2 to
4 degrees. Finally, under RCP 8.5, which is the
business as usual scenario, i.e. if no protective
measures are taken against the climate change, then
rise in the annual temperature can go as high as 4 to 5
degrees. The precipitation can follow a highly erratic
pattern. The projections indicate that the monsoon
spells may extend up to November, affecting the crop
yields and production systems for many crops.
The previous study has provided month-wise
projections of precipitation in upper, central and lower
parts of Sindh, and found that there would be more
seasonal variation in the amount of rainfall, and the
pattern of variation would also be different in various
parts of Sindh, with some areas receiving more rainfall
in one decade and meagre in the next [13]. Their
projections show that the months of monsoon season
are likely to vary across decades and across different
parts of Sindh.
3.3 Climate Change Impacts
We examine the climate change impacts based on the
various existing studies.
3.3.1 Overall Impacts
Table 3 presents the projected climate change impacts
in Pakistan according to a World Bank study based on
Table 1: Trend in temperature and precipitation at various meteorological stations of Sindh
Station Trend in Maximum
Temperature
Trend in Minimum
Temperature
Trend in Precipitation
Jacobabad Downward Upward Upward*
Larkana Downward*** Upward Downward
Moen-Jo-Daro Upward Upward
**
Upward
Hyderabad Downward Downward Downward
Nawabshah Upward
*
Upward Upward
Rohri Upward Upward Upward
Padidan Upward Upward* Upward
Khairpur Downward Upward NA
Badin Downward Upward** Upward
Chhor Upward
**
Upward Upward
Karachi (Airport) Upward
***
Upward
***
Downward
Karachi (Masroor) Upward
**
Upward Downward*
Note: *, ** and *** denote significance at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively, NA denotes data not available.
Climate Change and Implications for Agriculture Sector in Sindh Province of Pakistan
Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology, Vol. 39, No. 3, July 2020 [p-ISSN: 0254-7821, e-ISSN: 2413-7219]
671
Table 2: Projections of Temperature and Precipitation for Sindh
Intermediate Emissions (RCP 4.5)
Medium Term (2016 – 2035)
Dec-
Feb
March-
May
June-
Aug
Sep-
Nov
Temperature
Change (0C)
0.75
to 1.5
- 0.5 to 1 -
Standard
Deviation
(0C)
0.25
to 0.5
- 0 to 0.5 -
Precipitation
Change (%)
0 to
10
0 to 10 0 to 10 0 to
20
Long Term (By the end of 21
st
Century)
Annual
Temperature
Change (0C)
2 to 3
Intermediate Emissions (RCP 6.0)
Long Term
(By the end of 21st Century)
Annual
Temperature
Change (0C)
2 to 4
High Emissions: Business as Usual (RCP 8.5)
Long Term (By the end of 21
st
Century)
Annual
Temperature
Change (0C)
4 to 5
Dec-
Feb
March-
May
June-
Aug
Sep-
Nov
Precipitation
Change (%) -10 to
10 -20 to 0 0 to
20
20
to
50
Source: Authors’ extractions from IPCC Assessment
Report 5 [17-18].
the plausible future climate scenarios [15]. The table
shows that Pakistan’s GDP is estimated to be lower by
1.1 percent annually due to climate change.
Furthermore, the agricultural value-added to GDP is
estimated to be lower by 5.1 percent annually, and
household income is estimated to be lower by 2
percent, attributed to climate change.
Table 3: Projected Climate Change Impacts in Pakistan
Average annual
change (%)
GDP -1.10
Agricultural value-added
to GDP
-5.10
Household Income -2.00
Source: Yu et al. [15]
The study further projects that climate change impacts
on crop production will be highest in Sindh as
compared to Punjab and other provinces. Their study
projects that crop production in Sindh is estimated to
be lower by 10 percent annually, on average, due to
climate change [15].
Table 4 provides a summary of overall impact of
climate change on major crops, namely wheat, cotton,
rice and sugarcane, based on the reviewed literature.
The table also sheds light on how a particular climate
variable can likely affect yields of these major crops in
Pakistan and Sindh.
3.3.2 Livestock
Livestock is a source of income for small farmers,
especially in rain fed areas including desert and
mountainous areas of Sindh. Climate change may
affect livestock in these areas through the spread of
vector-borne diseases, macro parasites, and shortage
of fodder due to droughts. For rural households and
dwellers of Thar Desert this means a push into chronic
poverty due to their substantial dependence on
livestock raising [19]. Livestock productivity is also
expected to be affected by climate change through the
channel of high temperatures; the impacts may include
physiological stress on animals, reduction in milk and
meat production, stressed conception, increased water
requirements and fodder crops [20].
Table 4: Impact on Crops
Climate Variable Impact on Yield Place of Study References
Wheat Temp: +1
o
C to 4
o
C -9 to 30% Pakistan Mallick and Masood [21]
Cotton Temp: +1
o
C -2.26 % Sindh Raza and Ahmad [22]
Percipitation: + Decrease
Rice Mean Max Temp: Decrease Pakistan Shakoor et al. [23]
Mean Min Temp: + +7%
Sugarcane Temp: +1
o
C -10% Pakistan Afghan and Jamil [24]
Climate Change and Implications for Agriculture Sector in Sindh Province of Pakistan
Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology, Vol. 39, No. 3, July 2020 [p-ISSN: 0254-7821, e-ISSN: 2413-7219]
672
3.3.2 Livestock
Livestock is a source of income for small farmers,
especially in rain fed areas including desert and
mountainous areas of Sindh. Climate change may
affect livestock in these areas through the spread of
vector-borne diseases, macro parasites, and shortage
of fodder due to droughts. For rural households and
dwellers of Thar Desert this means a push into chronic
poverty due to their substantial dependence on
livestock raising [19]. Livestock productivity is also
expected to be affected by climate change through the
channel of high temperatures; the impacts may include
physiological stress on animals, reduction in milk and
meat production, stressed conception, increased water
requirements and fodder crops [20].
3.3.3 Fisheries
According to a study by World Bank, the deltaic
region of Indus is getting drier and saltier as it receives
meagre amounts of fresh water and as consequence,
the depletion of fish along the coast is a major issue in
Sindh. Many fish species have become extinct and
others are close to extinction [25]. Furthermore, the
rise in temperature has resulted in shifting distribution
of fish species, has affected their growth rates, and has
decreased availability of oxygen [19].
3.3.4 Sea Intrusion
With growing water scarcity, fresh river water supply
to downstream Kotri Barrage has declined [25]. An
important consequence of water scarcity in Sindh and
sea level rise is the intrusion of seawater into the Indus
Delta. This has resulted in soil salinity along the delta,
deterioration of mangrove cover and loss of marine
fisheries [25]. Along with cyclones that hit coastal
areas, sea intrusion has led to the invasion of seawater,
occupying 54 kilometers into the Indus Delta along the
river’s course. The sea has conquered over 1.2 million
acres of fertile agricultural land in Thatta district and
nearby areas, adversely affected mangrove and
riverine forests, also has resultantly led to a decline in
wildlife, migratory birds, fish and shrimp species [21].
It is estimated that the sectors of agriculture, forestry
and fisheries may bear a loss of Rs. 1.3 billion over the
period 2000-2025 [26]. Another study estimated that
39% of the agricultural land has been badly affected
by seawater intrusion and 11% of the cultivated land
*has partially been affected and is at the risk of further
degradation in Sindh [25]. The situation has hurt the
dwelling livelihoods, as the region has experienced a
drop in agricultural productivity and decline in fish
catches, ultimately causing forced migration for
survival.
Mangrove forests are a much-cherished resource of the
province as they are a source of not only fuel wood but
also food to local inhabitants [27]. At present only
15% mangroves is healthy [28]. The rate of
degradation of mangroves forests in the Indus delta
has been estimated at 6% during 1980 to 1995. Also,
the reduced rainfall at the coast and Indus Delta (10-
15% lower in the last 40 years) continue to severely
degrade the country’s wetland and mangrove
ecosystems [29]. Estimations show that annual losses
due to mangrove loss stand at approximately 0.3% of
provincial GDP of Sindh in 2010 [25].
According to IPCC fourth assessment report, sea
levels during the 20th century rose about 15-20
centimeters (roughly 1.5 to 2.0 mm/year), with the rate
at the end of the century increased to about 3.1
mm/year, which is significantly higher than the
average rate for the 20th century. Sea level rise would
be a prime factor of flooding in coastal areas, which is
apparently an issue of today [3]. Sea level rise has
increased vulnerability of low lying coastal areas. Salt
water from sea level rise will negatively affect farther
upstream ultimately increasing brackishness of water
and threatening human use and aquatic life [30].
3.3.5 Impact on Poverty and Livelihoods
Due to the heavy reliance of poor on natural resources,
capital degradation associated with climate change
reduces their assets and keeps them trapped in the
poverty’s circle [31]. Small farmers tend to get more
affected than big farmers. Due to their limited
landholding size, their lands get washed away in
flooding season or by any natural calamity, and the
extent of impact is much stronger on small landholders
than larger landholders. If any natural calamity strikes,
small farmers lose a larger share of their income [32].
In Sindh, around 68% of rural population is engaged
in agricultural activities, which is quite a huge
Climate Change and Implications for Agriculture Sector in Sindh Province of Pakistan
Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology, Vol. 39, No. 3, July 2020 [p-ISSN: 0254-7821, e-ISSN: 2413-7219]
673
dependency on agriculture [28]. In addition, any
serious decreases in agricultural yield due to climate
change adversely affect the income levels of those
whose sole source of earning is agriculture. It can
further push them below subsistence levels if no
investments are made into combating climate change.
A World Bank study [15] found that household
income could decrease by about 2 percent in Pakistan
owing to climate change.
The loss of biodiversity in delta area is a threat to the
poor dwelling communities, and only makes them
more vulnerable to climate change in form of sea
intrusion and loss of breeding grounds of fish as
highlighted in above sections. Prawns and crabs have
vanished after the cyclone that hit coastal areas in 1999
and the drying up of wetlands has seriously affected
the fishing communities in district Badin resulting in
migration of workers to nearby urban areas [33].
5. ADAPTATIONS OPTIONS
5.1 Impact of Adaptation Investments
A recent study by the World Bank evaluated the
impacts of adaptation investments in Pakistan [15].
The study evaluated three adaptation investments:
investments in agricultural technologies to increase
crop yield, investment for canal and watercourse
efficiency improvements, and construction of new
reservoirs to introduce an additional 13 MAF. Table 5
presents the main findings including the impacts on
GDP, agricultural value-added to GDP, and household
income. The findings of the study show that the
climate change is likely to reduce agricultural value-
added to GDP by around 5% if there is no investment
made for climate change adaptation. However, the
investment in agricultural technologies to increase
crop yield is likely to increase the agricultural value-
added to GDP by around 17% while the investment for
canal and watercourse efficiency improvements would
increase it by 9%.
Grost et al. [34] estimate the impacts of adaptations on
productivity of different crops and find that adaptation
was linked to increased yields. Positive effects for
wheat and cotton outweighed rice. Some adaptations
included: changing the sowing time depending upon
when the farmers find optimal temperatures and other
inputs, secondly changing the variety of crop i.e.
substituting less vulnerable crops for those that are
more vulnerable to climate change, thirdly farmers
could opt for changing the input mix, and lastly by
conserving soil quality and keeping soils enough
irrigated. Factors that induced farmers to adapt to
climate changes were also analyzed. For adapters
cotton and wheat yield is estimated to increase by 9%
and 12% respectively, and 3% for rice.
Farmers have delayed wheat sowing 2-3 weeks
throughout the country to avoid higher temperature
level above optimal, from mid-October to early-
November [35].
Ahmad et al. [36] listed some adapted practices in rain
fed and irrigated areas, including: installation of tube-
wells to lessen drought impacts; diversion of stream
water by means of private channels; delayed sowing of
crops to avoid negative impacts of elevated
temperatures in rain fed areas; tunnel farming is
gaining momentum to ensure availability of offseason
crops; wheat in standing cotton is sowed (an example
of double cropping); rice is directly seeded to lower
the input costs, cotton is sown earlier to avoid high
temperatures; intercropping wheat in sugarcane and
mustard in cotton and heat tolerant varieties of rice are
adopted in irrigated areas.
Table 5: Impact of Adaptation Investments in Pakistan [15]
Change in
GDP (%)
Change in Agricultural
value-added to GDP (%)
Change in Household
Income (%)
Average change without investments
No investment -1.10 -5.10 -2.00
Average change with investments
Investments in agricultural to increase crop
yield
3.66 16.70 5.42
Investments for canal and watercourse
efficiency improvements
2.09 9.32 3.21
Construction of new reservoirs 0.29 1.50 0.64
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Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology, Vol. 39, No. 3, July 2020 [p-ISSN: 0254-7821, e-ISSN: 2413-7219]
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6. CONCLUSION AND POLICY
RECOMMENDATIONS
As per the projections provided in the IPCC report 5,
the average temperature and the variation in
temperature in Sindh are expected to rise due to
climate change. Precipitation in Sindh is also expected
to increase and expected to follow a highly erratic
pattern. The projections further indicate that the
monsoon spells may extend up to November, affecting
the crop yields and production systems for many
crops. This will have serious implications for
agriculture sector and other sectors directly or
indirectly linked to agriculture. The sub-sectors of
agriculture – crops, livestock and fishing – will have
negative effect and consequently lowered trajectory of
household income, aggravating already high rural
poverty rate in the province.
The adverse impacts of climate change could be
addressed by policy response and its implementation
at field level. Strong and timely public policy with
adequate investment in adaptation could greatly help
in minimizing the negative climate change impacts.
A resilient and climate change adapted agriculture will
require: (a) suitable agriculture practices, to address
new opportunities and threats, resulting from higher
temperature and rainfall; (b) suitable infrastructure,
particularly at farm level, to deal with higher, but more
variable rainfall, and floods and droughts along with
well-planned response mechanisms; and (c) strong
contingency plans and funds in case of unforeseen
disasters.
The specific recommendations for climate change
adaptations are as follows:
Modify farming systems to adapt to emerging climate
patterns: This would include better extension and
farmer trainings services, provision of quality seed,
and redefining cropping zones. Providing updated
information to farmers is very important for
management of farms. Agricultural extensions can
play a role in spreading adaptation knowledge. To
strengthen the current agriculture extension system,
rigorous training and information sessions of the
officers should be conducted to build their capacities
that can outweigh the prevailing challenges. Seed
quality should correspond to the type of soil and
climatic conditions. As the temperature is increasing
and other climate variables are also changing, seeds
should be well adapted to give good yields. This can
also be a great opportunity of research in climate smart
agriculture. In this regard, Sindh Seed Corporation
should play its part and a division of this entity should
solely be engaged in research and development of new
seed varieties and animal breeds with increased
resistance to heat shocks, droughts, flooding and
salinization.
Increase public development and research funding for
climate smart-agriculture: The Government should
improve productive and protective infrastructure in
rural areas, both public and private infrastructure, to
deal with bigger and more frequent floods and
seawater intrusion. The Government should also
provide resources for disaster relief and rehabilitation,
with a particular focus on vulnerable areas and on the
poor. Also, maintenance of existing irrigation
infrastructure including proper drainage in LBOD and
RBOD should be ensured.
Promoting Adaptation by Farmers: The Government
needs to promote various adaptation measures by
farmers. Altering cropping patterns and sowing time
keeping in view climate projections needs to be
supported. The income diversification for farmers may
also be promoted. Mulching practice been observed in
some parts of Sindh in which the top soil is covered
with a layer of organic or inorganic materials. It helps
preventing soil from eroding, maintains moisture, and
enhances soil filtration. Such practices should be
encouraged on large scale.
Providing timely weather forecasts through Short
Message Service (SMS) and other channels to farmers:
Pakistan Meteorological Department should furnish
timely weather updates and forecasts for farmers in
order to facilitate them in deciding appropriate timing
in all activities from sowing to harvesting. It can be
done by making responsible few people across all
meteorological stations to send related data to farmers
through SMS system. For this purpose, the farmers can
be asked to register themselves at these stations to
receive messages. In addition, it should be made free
of cost for farmers to receive such messages. It can
serve as an early warning system for them that may be
beneficial in terms of avoiding losses, which might
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have occurred if that information was not available to
them.
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