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105 JOURNAL OF THE ASIATIC SOCIETY OF MUMBAI, ISSN: 0972-0766, Vol. XCV, No.28, 2022
THE GEOPOLITICAL IMPORTANCE OF AFGHANISTAN FOR INDIA IN THE 21st
CENTURY
Devaki Nandan Research Scholar, Department of Defence Strategic and Geopolitical Studies,
Hemvati Nandan Bahuguna Garhwal Central University, Srinagar, Uttarakhand
Dr Bharti Chauhan Professor, Department of Defence Strategic and Geopolitical Studies, Hemvati
Nandan Bahuguna Garhwal Central University, Srinagar, Uttarakhand
Rahul Kumar Assistant Professor, Department of Defence and Strategic Studies P.R.S. University
Naini, Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh
Abstract: This review paper explores and overview of the geopolitical importance of Afghanistan for
India in the 21st century’s geostrategic and geo-economics environment. After the withdrawal of the
USA from Afghanistan and recapture of city Kabul by Taliban has deteriorated the strategic and
security calculus of south Asia. India is the Neighbouring country of Afghanistan and a true supporter
of Afghan-led and Afghan-owned government. This study will also try to suggest the regional and
global significance of Afghanistan for peace, security and development.
Keywords: Afghanistan, India, Taliban, Geopolitics, Strategy, Security, Peace
Introduction: Geopolitics is a trinity of the relationship among history, geography and strategy (Sloan,
2017). Geopolitics seeks to analyse the interaction between the spatial setting and political process,
i.e., in broader perspective politics, especially international relations as influenced by geographical
factors. Therefore, geopolitical studies emphasise how geographical configuration such as location,
climate, natural resources, population and physical terrain determines states foreign policy (Grygiel,
2006). From its inception, as a gateway to India, Afghanistan has had great strategic importance. The
control of Afghanistan means having strategic control on their trade routes. Conceptually, Afghanistan
is a focal point of strategic interest and crossroad for the geopolitical and geoeconomics struggle for
power and dominance in the region. Further, it is surrounded by powerful neighbours. It plays a vital
role in efficiently connecting the regions and for this reason, remain a geopolitical necessity for any
great power (Adamec, 2003). Notably, Afghanistan is the crossroad of routes in Asia. Historically
Afghanistan has always been the epicentre of the great game (Bird & Marshall, 2011). Further, its
geopolitical location had attracted the regional and international actors to manifest rivalry in this
theatre. Earlier British India, later USSR and USA were the part of a great game. These all
superpowers had succumbed in a very deteriorated way in front of brave Afghans. It has the fearless
and tireless resistance of its brave people. Now is quite interesting to see what will happen because
now China is interested in becoming a new player in a never-ending great game in Afghanistan. It is
quite interesting that these Afghans have never liked to be conquered. “When everyone is dead the
Great Game is finished. Not before.” Rudyard Kipling (Edwards, 2003). After fighting the longest-
running war in Afghanistan the USA has decided that it will withdraw all remaining troops by the
twentieth anniversary of 9/11. The USA withdrawal would be embroiled the regional geopolitical
antagonism in Afghanistan (Remarks by President Biden on the Way Forward in Afghanistan, 2021).
The exit of the USA and entering China into Afghanistan will be beneficial to Pakistan. In this context,
it will be a herculean task for Indian policymakers to pursue a strategic interest in Afghanistan
including maintaining connectivity up to the Central Asian Republic.
The Geopolitics of Afghanistan: Its regional and global significances
Afghanistan a mountainous landlocked country is, historically, geographically, politically,
culturally and strategically a part of central Asia. Owning to religious, Political, geographical features
is also a part of South Asia and West Asia (I. Khan, 1998). Its borders are connected with China,
Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Afghanistan has a small stretch of border
with India but due to illegal occupation of POK, it’s disputed. Geography and history have left
106 JOURNAL OF THE ASIATIC SOCIETY OF MUMBAI, ISSN: 0972-0766, Vol. XCV, No.28, 2022
Afghanistan a fractured landscape. The country’s forbidding landscape of desert and mountain has laid
down many imperial ambitions to rest. The total area of Afghanistan is 652,200 km2. The Northern
and Southern part of Afghanistan is split by the Hindukush Mountain. Other major mountains dominate
the central and eastern part of Afghanistan, covering about three-fourths of the country (Political Map
of Afghanistan - Nations Online Project, n.d.). The Pamir mountains to the northeast are the trijunction
between Tajikistan, Afghanistan and China. In the East, the passes in the Suleiman mountain range
like the famous Khaybar passes have provided access to the Indian subcontinent (Roy, 2015).
The history of Afghanistan has been subject to intervention by external powers (Nojumi, 2016).
Afghanistan is a trijunction between Central Asia, West Asia and South Asia. The geopolitical,
geostrategic and geo-economic salience of Central Asia, West Asia and South Asia is a bone of
contention and power projection among regional, extra-regional and external superpowers in
Afghanistan. The main purpose of all-powerful nations is to maintain control over trade routes, oil
and natural gases resources. It is also a fact that Afghanistan holds a significant deposit of rare earth
elements. According to the U.S Geological Survey, approximately 1 million metric tons of rare earth
elements resources are hidden in Afghanistan’s Helmand province (Simpson, 2011). These earth
metals are essential to building UAVs, turbines, electric vehicles and other ICT equipment (Schmid,
2019). Today due to energy security needs pipelines are important in the same way as the railways
building was important in the 19th century, it connects trading partners and influence the entire region
TAPI project is its glaring example. Further escalating traditional and non-traditional threats and
challenges posed by religious extremism, terrorism, narco-terrorism, nuclear material proliferation and
aggressive nationalism is also the basic cause to escalate rivalry among concerned countries (Joshi &
Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, 2010). As it is well known that
Afghanistan is a landlocked country, it has limited connectivity access to regional and international
trade further any land lock country’s peace security and prosperity depends on those of its surrounding
neighbours. Since the Taliban regime change in 2001, the Afghan government had shown its
commitment to don’t interfere in the internal affairs of any nation and don’t allow any country to utilise
Afghanistan’s soils against its neighbours (A Peaceful Afghanistan Key to Regional Connectivity in
South and Central Asia, n.d.).
Kabul declaration on good-neighbour relations was signed on 22 December 2002 by the
Transnational administration of Afghanistan and the governments of China, Pakistan, Iran,
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Now when after fighting the longest war in any external
land the USA and NATO have decided to withdraw, the role of these neighbouring countries including
India is inevitable to strengthen peace, security and prosperity in Afghanistan (Weitz, 2015).
China: In Afghanistan, above mentioned neighbouring nations have their interest. Afghanistan is
already of strategic and geo-economics interest for China owing to the withdrawal of the USA, Chinese
influence will grow in this region. China is curiously overserving pros and cons. Afghanistan has a
diplomatic priority to China as it wants to convince Afghanistan to join its own most ambitious and
flagship project BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), further China look to use Afghanistan as a corridor for
its ‘March West’ strategy (Hong, 2013). China is also worried about its internal security interest as it
wants to prevent moral and ideological support to its Uyghur secessionist groups from Afghanistan.
After the regime change in Kabul, the Taliban had assured China that it will not support separatists’
activities in its prone and vulnerable Xinjiang province.
Pakistan: Pakistan due to its security and economic interest is so keen to be a pivotal actor in the
Afghan Peace process. Pakistan priorities in Afghanistan are to prevent Indian influence in this region
generally Pakistan backed the Taliban regime in this condition because the Taliban is ideologically
reliable and military resilient against growing Indian influence in this region. To build up economic
and energy security connectivity up to Central Asia, in the vis-à-vis confrontation with India utilise
Afghanistan as a place of strategic depth, establish safe heaven to Pakistan trained extremist group as
it is obvious that notorious Pakistani intelligence agency has linkage with the Taliban and Al-Qaeda
(Singh, n.d.). Pakistan is regularly making effort to compel Afghanistan to leave its claim over
107 JOURNAL OF THE ASIATIC SOCIETY OF MUMBAI, ISSN: 0972-0766, Vol. XCV, No.28, 2022
Pashtuns. Pakistan wants to train extremists in Afghanistan and to penetrate them in the Indian state
of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan has an ambition that every country must know that it's essential to
Afghanistan reconciliation talk and oppose Afghanistan regional integration (Hanauer & Chalk, 2012).
Iran: Iran is a great actor in the Asian especially West Asian geopolitical rivalry. Iran is a unique
country in the Islamic fauna because it has an overwhelmingly more Shia population than Sunni
(Matin, 2013). As Iran shares a border with Afghanistan here the Taliban government is in the way to
uphold political and administrative power. So apart from their sectarian and ideological differences,
the Islamic Republic and the ‘’ Islamic Emirates, The Tehran-Taliban rivalry would be manifest
(Akbarzadeh & Ibrahimi, 2020). Iran wants to maintain harmonious relations with Afghanistan. The
USA had labelled Iran the biggest threat to stability in the region (Milani, 2006). Iran is so keen to
American exit from Afghanistan, Iran has joined hands with China and Russia to shape geostrategy
and geo-economy in this region.
Turkmenistan: Turkmenistan lies along the northwest frontier of Afghanistan. As a non-
traditional threat narco (illicit opium production) abuses in Turkmenistan is rapidly growing. As
Afghanistan is responsible to produce 90% of illicit opium so Turkmenistan government expect to
make effort to interdict drug shipment from this country (Bradford, 2019). Including it, Turkmenistan
is interested in the economic ties with Afghanistan. In this process, Turkmenistan continuously
supplies energy at a great discount to Afghanistan. Turkmenistan has the largest underdeveloped oil
and natural gas resources in the world. It supplies natural gas through the Trans-Afghan natural gas
pipeline to India through Afghanistan and Pakistan (Ahmadzai & McKinna, 2018).
Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan’s vital interest in Afghanistan finally settling peace is generally twofold.
First, as Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said in March 2018 “Secure Afghanistan means secure
Uzbekistan’’ (Weitz, 2018). Second, Uzbekistan has the ambition in playing a greater economic role
in Afghanistan. It is interested in the economic project to connect the country to major international
transportation corridors with access to seaports in South Asia and the Middle East (Baizakova &
Baizakova, 2014).
Tajikistan: Tajikistan has its security and economic interest in Afghanistan. Since Afghanistan
is responsible for more than 90 % of illicit opium production. These narco products supply all over the
world through these central Asian countries in which Tajikistan is prominent (Nawa, 2012). Except it,
the illegal drug trade enriches the non-state actors which are indulged in it such as the Taliban and
their allies the IMU (Islamic Movement of Afghanistan) and other criminal groups that continuously
threaten the sovereignty and stability of the country. In 2008 Tajikistan, Iran and Afghanistan agreed
to form the Economic Council of the Persian speaking Union and shown commitment to improving
transportation links -road and rail, further trade between these three countries (Joharifard, 2010).
Afghanistan has its own energy needs it has sought to import energy from Tajikistan. In brief, both
countries are mutual and equally important to fulfil needs.
Russia & America Rivalry in Afghanistan:
Afghanistan plays a crucial role in regional as well as international strategic and geo-economic
dynamics. In the above paragraphs linkages between regional actors have been discussed but here it is
essential to discuss the USA and Russian interest in Afghanistan because overtly or covertly both
countries have impacted the regional as well as extra-geopolitics of Afghanistan. For Russia,
Afghanistan is important in four domains such as security, economy, power projection and
connectivity.
Russia: Russian main security concern is due to the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in Central
Asia. Russia has the peril of spread of ‘warlordism’ into neighbouring Central Asian republic. They
could ‘Afghanise’ the entire region. As a non-traditional threat drug trafficking is also a crux to a
Russian security analyst. The Afghan quagmire and weak economy were the main causes of the
disintegration of the erstwhile USSR. Russia is making effort to boost its economy and reoccupy its
reputation in the international community. In this way, Russia is trying to develop a single economic
108 JOURNAL OF THE ASIATIC SOCIETY OF MUMBAI, ISSN: 0972-0766, Vol. XCV, No.28, 2022
zone in which Central Asia will play a crucial role. An existing Afghan threat will always be vulnerable
to the union’s economy. Further, Afghanistan is rich in mineral resources a report has revealed that it
has untapped mineral deposits that could exceed a trillion dollars. American geologists have
discovered huge mineral deposits in Afghanistan: the ‘Saudi Arabia’ of lithium. Apart from it, various
hidden Rare Earth Elements extraction will be beneficial to Russia to boost its economy (Sangar,
2016). In the process of power projection, Russia has joined hands with China and Iran. Now when
the USA and its NATO allies are approximately packing to withdraw. By upholding a clutch over
Central Asia and Afghanistan (Krastev & Holmes, 2019), Russia will be a crucial factor in the Middle
East geopolitical rivalry. Owing to their geographical location it is well known that peaceful and
prosperous Afghanistan will spill over peace and prosperity all over the region. Further, it could
connect South and Central Asia Including Russia.
America: The United States of America is the most influential and determinant country which has
affected the geopolitical setting of Afghanistan. Vividly, it is quite interesting that from 1979
Afghanistan had become the focal point of American geopolitical interest (Hilali, 2017). Treacherously
Americas had supported the Mujahidin with weaponry and logistics against the USSR’s intervention.
But in the 21st, 9\11 it was exposed that the incumbent Taliban government had linkage with the
notorious terror group Al-Qaeda (Taj, 2011), which were utterly responsible for an exterminated terror
attack in the mainland of the USA. The Bush administration and NATO declared the Global war
against terrorism in Afghanistan. Post 9\11 the principal objective of the U.S in Afghanistan has been
to prevent a terrorist attack on the USA and become a peril to its people and assets, or U.S allies
elsewhere (Mir, 2010). Further, ensure that Afghanistan’s territory is not used for sponsoring terrorism
worldwide. Other American interests in Afghanistan are to maintain regional BoP (Balance of Power).
Curb and Crackdown Chinese, Iranian and Russian influence in South Asia, Central Asia and oil-rich
West Asia. Including it as the USA always claim that as a responsible democracy, they are committed
to ensuring human rights, minorities rights and women’s rights, - as well as humanitarian issues,
particularly minimising the suffering and death due to war, illness, or starvation, and enabling inclusive
socio-economic development in Afghanistan.
India is also the neighbouring (due to Pakistan Occupied Kashmir it is disputed) and regional
country of Afghanistan. Like other neighbours, she also has had various interests in Afghanistan. India,
China and Pakistan are the prominent countries the South Asia and Afghanistan affairs (Snedden,
2016). The rivalry between India one hand and China-Pakistan on the other hand has affected the
geopolitical setting of this region. Due to this geopolitical, geo-economic, and geostrategic rivalry,
there is a lack of synergy to peace, prosperity, stability and humanitarian development in this region
(Z. Khan, 2016). This stratagem has directly and indirectly affected the entire region. India, Pakistan,
Afghanistan and China can’t flee from redundancy. India is committed to an ‘Afghan-led and Afghan
owned’ government. A peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan will bring peace and prosperity to the
entire region (Ali, n.d.).
Geo-strategic and geo-economic Significance of Afghanistan for India
India and Afghanistan have civilizational, geographical, social, cultural, religious, humanitarian
and emotional links (Pate, 2018). The incumbent prime minister Narendra Modi said, “India -
Afghanistan ties are ancient as history”. Afghanistan’s geographical location is known as both the
‘Heart of Asia’ and ‘The graveyard of empires’ (Thubron, 2012). Both these features manifest that its
geography must be read very wisely to detangle Geo-strategic and Geo-economic challenges. Until
the arrival of Islam, Arab traders, religious preachers and armies, Culturally and politically it was also
part of the great Indian subcontinent. The great Mauryan empire’s territory was extended up to
Hindukush Mountain. Afghanistan was the cradle of Buddhism and Hinduism culture. The statue of
Bamiyan Buddha is the epitome of this peaceful religion in Afghanistan. Buddhism was expanded up
to Central Asia and China via Afghanistan. In the medieval period the great Mughal empire whose
founder Babur was the native of Afghanistan. From the medieval period geopolitically, Afghanistan
109 JOURNAL OF THE ASIATIC SOCIETY OF MUMBAI, ISSN: 0972-0766, Vol. XCV, No.28, 2022
has had a prominent role in the security, survival, prosperity and harmony of India. Many ambitious
sects and clans and emperors (Mahmud Ghaznavi, Muhammad Ghori, Babur, Nader Shah, and Ahmad
Shah Durrani) had emanated from Afghanistan to create mayhem, spread religion, extend territory and
loot this prosperous nation. During colonial rule in India, after the Crimean war and commence of the
Great Game (a political and diplomatic confrontation) to maintain the Balance of Power the British
Indian government tried to make Afghanistan a buffer state. British authority was aware of the reality
that India was vulnerable to the Russian empire attack from Afghanistan (Wang, 2017).
During the Cold War, Pakistan joined hands with Western security alliances SEATO and CENTO
under the stewardship of the U.S. The geopolitical rivalry between the USA and USSR, directly and
indirectly, affected the security of the entire South Asian continent. After the Saur Revolution in
Afghanistan communist party took control and power over the country. To support this government
the USSR launched a covert Operation Storm-333 that took place on 27 December 1979. The USSR
installed Babrak Karmal as Amin’s successor. In this Soviet-Afghan war, the USA with the help of
Pakistan supported an insurgents’ group (the Mujahideen). The USA, USSR geopolitical rivalry’s
litmus test which took place in India’s neighbourhood directly and indirectly affected her strategic and
security parameters (Hilali, 2017). Afghanistan’s geopolitical litmus test was proved beneficial to
Pakistan which has an aspiration to fight thousands of years of war with India. Under the golden
opportunity of the Soviet-Afghan war Pakistan developed trustworthy relations with the USA, China
provided technical support and the USA provide approval to enrich its nuclear material further to
become a nuclear state. After the victory of the Mujahidin over the infidel, Soviets Pakistan becomes
a prominent actor in the Islamic community. OIC always shows solidarity over Kashmir against India.
Pakistan seeks ‘Strategic Depth’ in Afghanistan against India. The Taliban regime with the support of
Pakistan is on its way to holding power in Afghanistan. If the Taliban came into power in Afghanistan,
it could be devastating security challenges to India’s policymakers to subdue Pakistan influence over
Afghanistan (Weinbaum, 1997).
India -Afghanistan ties are strengthened by empathy, security and mutual development needs. India
wants a strong government in Afghanistan. Because it will prevent Pakistan to utilise Afghanistan as
a ‘Strategic Depth’ and haven for the terror group (Siddique, 2011). India is the victim of state-
sponsored terrorism of Pakistan, which wants to bleed India by thousands of cuts. India has ambitions
to Afghan-led and Afghan-owned government. By strengthening Afghanistan, India advances its own
security needs and objective (Kaura, 2017a). Erstwhile Indian prime minister Lt. Atal Bihari Vajpayee
once said “We can forget our history but not geography’’ i.e., we can change our friends, not our
neighbours. Therefore, we should live peacefully adjust to them. India, Pakistan and Afghanistan have
historical, cultural linkages. Disharmony and conflict in any one country would affect all nations. In
the geoeconomics dimension, it is quite a crystal clear that stable and prosperous Afghanistan means
more economic opportunities to the entire region including India(Racine, 2002). From a connectivity
perspective, Afghanistan is always considered as India’s gateway to Central Asia (Kaura, 2017b).
India’s Afghan Policy for Peace & Tranquilities
India’s Afghan policy is crystal clear to establish her friendly government in Afghanistan and
provide it humanitarian and state-building capability. Through all these steps India wants to protect
her long-term aspirations in Afghanistan (Goodson, 2003). During the Soviet-led intervention, India
was the only South Asian country to the recognized pro-Soviet Democratic Republic of Afghanistan
in 1980. Initially, India’s policymakers make moral efforts to get some political solution to the Soviets
withdrawal from the war-affected country. With generosity, India offered to work with Pakistan in this
situation. But Pakistan’s Zia-ul-Haq firmly refused to oblige. After the USSR with an exit from
Afghanistan in 1989, India pursued the policy to assist Najibullah’s government with humanitarian aid
(India’s Afghan Policy, n.d.). It’s also notable that India provided military assistance to the Northern
Alliance whose rival group were the Taliban, backed by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (Yadav
& Barwa, 2011). Finally, the Taliban regime took control of Afghanistan. Pakistan and other Arab
110 JOURNAL OF THE ASIATIC SOCIETY OF MUMBAI, ISSN: 0972-0766, Vol. XCV, No.28, 2022
countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE recognised the Taliban government. Gaining authority
over Afghanistan always manifested anti-India gestures in its territory. In 1999, the hijacked Indian
Airlines Flight 814 landed at Kandahar in Afghanistan and the Taliban government were suspected to
have nexus with Jaish-e-Mohammed and Laskar-e-Taiba with its complete support. In the same
antagonistic posture, the Taliban government destroyed the Bamiyan Buddha monuments. All these
events deteriorated India and the Taliban relations (Dixit, 2003).
After the 9/11 attack on WTC and Pentagon, the USA declared a Global war Against Terrorism
and launched “Operation Enduring Freedom’’ in Afghanistan against the Taliban regime in November
2001. This event provided an opportunity for India to establish relations with Afghanistan and pursue
its strategic interest, which had affected in a deteriorated way during the Taliban regime. Mr Jastvant
Singh, then Indian external affairs minister, during his visit to the USA in 2001 urged the international
community should support the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. Mr Singh also added that “India has
never recognised the Taliban regime as a legitimate regime. We have continued to recognize the
government of Afghanistan represented by President Rabbani. They have formed the Northern alliance
…it should be the effort of the international community now to strengthen the legitimate government
of Afghanistan” (Ashraf, 2007). India as a most favourable country enhanced amicable relations with
the Afghanistan government. In 2005, India was a strong supporter and proposed Afghanistan’s
membership in the SAARC. Both the countries followed the will to share strategic and intelligence
cooperation against the Islamic militia (Ghale, 2015). During recent two decades, the Indian
government has committed approximately US$3 billion towards humanitarian assistance, basic
infrastructure development and rebuilding governance capacity to enhance human development in
Afghanistan. India has assisted Afghanistan through various humanitarian initiative, a million tonnes
of wheat, rejuvenating and rebuilding hospitals, and providing major health projects.
On 10 September 2021 New Delhi hosted the Third Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan at the
level of National Security Advisers (NSAs). This Delhi Declaration reaffirmed a conclusion and
manifest commitment that ‘’Afghanistan would never become a haven for global terrorism’’.
Conclusion: In the 21st-century geopolitics has been changed into geoeconomics. Any country’s
peace, prosperity and growth as a rising tide depend upon the economy because the economic
challenges develop various social, ethnic, political, physical and mental changes. Including it, it is
also the hard reality that the Taliban’s return to the city of Kabul could be a haven for terrorism and
these terror groups as domino effects will spread all over the world from the Af-Pak area. India has
vital economic, strategic, cultural interests and seeks to maintain energy needs and connectivity from
the Middle -East and Central Asian Republic countries. Therefore, New Delhi wants friendly relations
with the Afghan Government because by enhancing amicable relations with the Afghan Government
India can fulfil its vital interest and needs in an optimum way.
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