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https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-20689-x
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Economic complexity, ICT, biomass energy consumption,
andenvironmental degradation: evidence fromIran
AmirMehrjo1· SaeidSatariYuzbashkandi2 · MohammadHadiEskandariNasab2· HadisGudarzipor2
Received: 15 November 2021 / Accepted: 3 May 2022
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022
Abstract
Economic complexity, biomass energy consumption, and information communication technology (ICT) have diverse impacts
on energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Nevertheless, analysis of these variable effects is not addressed
in the previous literature; the antiqueness of this article is stuffing this gap. This study assessed the relationship between
gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, biomass consumption, economic complexity index (ECI), ICT, and CO2 emis-
sions in Iran in 1994–2018. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the quantile regression (QR) economet-
ric technique were used to investigate the factors affecting CO2 emissions in the tails of the conditional distribution. The
share of each influential factor was predicted through the variance decomposition analysis (VD) for the next 10years. The
empirical results showed a long-run relationship between the variables. So, the variables of biomass consumption, ECI, and
ICT improve the quality of the environment in Iran by reducing CO2 emissions, and the per capita GDP variable increases
CO2 emissions. Results suggest no evidence indicating the presence of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC); however, QR
demonstrated the existence of EKCs in the lower quantiles of the conditional distribution. The ECI will have the most share
to change the CO2 emissions in the future. The income threshold should be determined at the turning point of the EKC to
increase economic development. Moreover, investing in increasing biomass consumption is vital. Policymakers also need
to consider strict added value for the export of products.
Keywords ARDL approach· Biomass· CO2 emissions· Economics complexity· Economic growth· Quantile regression
Introduction
Today, climate change is the most critical environmental
problem, and the rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
are considered its leading cause (Lin & Zhu, 2019). CO2
emissions, regarded as the most significant components of
GHG emissions, have a prominent contribution to climate
change (Ahmed etal., 2019). The International Energy
Agency (IEA, 2019) statistics revealed that since 2012, the
amount of CO2 emissions related to fossil fuel energy had
shown an alarmingly increasing trend by 1.7% in 2018, thus
have reached to 33,444 million tons of CO2 equivalent. Cli-
mate change and continuous air pollution will bring potential
threats to life and human activities.
Hence, concerns about the effects of increased CO2 emis-
sions, including climate change, have intensified such that
many countries have committed to reducing CO2 emissions
(Apergis & Payne, 2014). Thus, environmentalists have
repeatedly called on the international community to take
action to reduce CO2 emissions. Therefore, countries in vari-
ous international meetings such as the Stockholm Confer-
ence, the Montreal and the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris
Agreement have taken steps to deal with climate change and
limit GHG emissions (Razmjoo & Davarpanah, 2019).
This study aimed to explore the impacts of ECI, informa-
tion communication technology (ICT), and biomass energy
Responsible Editor: Roula Inglesi-Lotz
Highlights
•Focus on Iran as one of the largest Co2 emissions in the world.
•The effects of GDP, economic complexity index biomass
consumption and internet consumption on air quality are assessed.
•Economic complexity is significantly affecting the reduction of
Co2 emissions in the future.
•Our result provides a new strategy for policymakers to move
towards sustainable economic development.
•ARDL, QR and VD analysis techniques were applied.
* Saeid Satari Yuzbashkandi
saeid.satari@modares.ac.ir
Extended author information available on the last page of the article
/ Published online: 17 May 2022
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2022) 29:69888–69902
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