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Economic complexity, ICT, biomass energy consumption, and environmental degradation: evidence from Iran

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Economic complexity, biomass energy consumption, and information communication technology (ICT) have diverse impacts on energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Nevertheless, analysis of these variable effects is not addressed in the previous literature; the antiqueness of this article is stuffing this gap. This study assessed the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, biomass consumption, economic complexity index (ECI), ICT, and CO2 emissions in Iran in 1994–2018. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the quantile regression (QR) econometric technique were used to investigate the factors affecting CO2 emissions in the tails of the conditional distribution. The share of each influential factor was predicted through the variance decomposition analysis (VD) for the next 10 years. The empirical results showed a long-run relationship between the variables. So, the variables of biomass consumption, ECI, and ICT improve the quality of the environment in Iran by reducing CO2 emissions, and the per capita GDP variable increases CO2 emissions. Results suggest no evidence indicating the presence of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC); however, QR demonstrated the existence of EKCs in the lower quantiles of the conditional distribution. The ECI will have the most share to change the CO2 emissions in the future. The income threshold should be determined at the turning point of the EKC to increase economic development. Moreover, investing in increasing biomass consumption is vital. Policymakers also need to consider strict added value for the export of products.
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https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-20689-x
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Economic complexity, ICT, biomass energy consumption,
andenvironmental degradation: evidence fromIran
AmirMehrjo1· SaeidSatariYuzbashkandi2 · MohammadHadiEskandariNasab2· HadisGudarzipor2
Received: 15 November 2021 / Accepted: 3 May 2022
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022
Abstract
Economic complexity, biomass energy consumption, and information communication technology (ICT) have diverse impacts
on energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Nevertheless, analysis of these variable effects is not addressed
in the previous literature; the antiqueness of this article is stuffing this gap. This study assessed the relationship between
gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, biomass consumption, economic complexity index (ECI), ICT, and CO2 emis-
sions in Iran in 1994–2018. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the quantile regression (QR) economet-
ric technique were used to investigate the factors affecting CO2 emissions in the tails of the conditional distribution. The
share of each influential factor was predicted through the variance decomposition analysis (VD) for the next 10years. The
empirical results showed a long-run relationship between the variables. So, the variables of biomass consumption, ECI, and
ICT improve the quality of the environment in Iran by reducing CO2 emissions, and the per capita GDP variable increases
CO2 emissions. Results suggest no evidence indicating the presence of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC); however, QR
demonstrated the existence of EKCs in the lower quantiles of the conditional distribution. The ECI will have the most share
to change the CO2 emissions in the future. The income threshold should be determined at the turning point of the EKC to
increase economic development. Moreover, investing in increasing biomass consumption is vital. Policymakers also need
to consider strict added value for the export of products.
Keywords ARDL approach· Biomass· CO2 emissions· Economics complexity· Economic growth· Quantile regression
Introduction
Today, climate change is the most critical environmental
problem, and the rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
are considered its leading cause (Lin & Zhu, 2019). CO2
emissions, regarded as the most significant components of
GHG emissions, have a prominent contribution to climate
change (Ahmed etal., 2019). The International Energy
Agency (IEA, 2019) statistics revealed that since 2012, the
amount of CO2 emissions related to fossil fuel energy had
shown an alarmingly increasing trend by 1.7% in 2018, thus
have reached to 33,444 million tons of CO2 equivalent. Cli-
mate change and continuous air pollution will bring potential
threats to life and human activities.
Hence, concerns about the effects of increased CO2 emis-
sions, including climate change, have intensified such that
many countries have committed to reducing CO2 emissions
(Apergis & Payne, 2014). Thus, environmentalists have
repeatedly called on the international community to take
action to reduce CO2 emissions. Therefore, countries in vari-
ous international meetings such as the Stockholm Confer-
ence, the Montreal and the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris
Agreement have taken steps to deal with climate change and
limit GHG emissions (Razmjoo & Davarpanah, 2019).
This study aimed to explore the impacts of ECI, informa-
tion communication technology (ICT), and biomass energy
Responsible Editor: Roula Inglesi-Lotz
Highlights
•Focus on Iran as one of the largest Co2 emissions in the world.
•The effects of GDP, economic complexity index biomass
consumption and internet consumption on air quality are assessed.
•Economic complexity is significantly affecting the reduction of
Co2 emissions in the future.
•Our result provides a new strategy for policymakers to move
towards sustainable economic development.
•ARDL, QR and VD analysis techniques were applied.
* Saeid Satari Yuzbashkandi
saeid.satari@modares.ac.ir
Extended author information available on the last page of the article
/ Published online: 17 May 2022
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2022) 29:69888–69902
1 3
Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.
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This textbook offers a comprehensive introduction to panel data econometrics, an area that has enjoyed considerable growth over the last two decades. Micro and Macro panels are becoming increasingly available, and methods for dealing with these types of data are in high demand among practitioners. Software programs have fostered this growth, including freely available programs in R and numerous user-written programs in both Stata and EViews. Written by one of the world’s leading researchers and authors in the field, Econometric Analysis of Panel Data has established itself as the leading textbook for graduate and postgraduate courses on panel data. It provides up-to-date coverage of basic panel data techniques, illustrated with real economic applications and datasets, which are available at the book’s website on springer.com. This new sixth edition has been fully revised and updated, and includes new material on dynamic panels, limited dependent variables and nonstationary panels, as well as spatial panel data. The author also provides empirical illustrations and examples using Stata and EViews. “This is a definitive book written by one of the architects of modern, panel data econometrics. It provides both a practical introduction to the subject matter, as well as a thorough discussion of the underlying statistical principles without taxing the reader too greatly." Professor Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Albany, USA. "This book is the most comprehensive work available on panel data. It is written by one of the leading contributors to the field, and is notable for its encyclopaedic coverage and its clarity of exposition. It is useful to theorists and to people doing applied work using panel data. It is valuable as a text for a course in panel data, as a supplementary text for more general courses in econometrics, and as a reference." Professor Peter Schmidt, Michigan State University, USA. “Panel data econometrics is in its ascendancy, combining the power of cross section averaging with all the subtleties of temporal and spatial dependence. Badi Baltagi provides a remarkable roadmap of this fascinating interface of econometric method, enticing the novitiate with technical gentleness, the expert with comprehensive coverage and the practitioner with many empirical applications.” Professor Peter C. B. Phillips, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, USA.