ChapterPDF Available

Changing Dynamics with COVID-19: Future Outlook

Authors:

Abstract

Today, human activities are developing at a drastic speed with little limitation. Excessive development can be problematic to human health as well as reduce the sustainability of natural resources. At present, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the whole world and adversely has impacted a broad range of human activities, including the economy, agriculture, tourism, and transportation. The excessive increase from globalization, unplanned urbanization, and the destruction of nature (i.e., due to ongoing human activity) have been partially to blame for the current state of the planet. The human population has tripled over the last 70 years. In addition, existing agricultural areas of the world yield lower rates—especially in underdeveloped or developing countries. Moreover, climate change has affected agricultural areas and caused a shrinkage in production patterns. As a result, an increasing population has decreased access to their cultural foods, leaving them with few options, and these unhealthy dietary options frame detrimental long-term concerns. As a result, the human–nature relationship must be considered and decisions made. In sensitive areas, especially in mountainous regions, tropical forests, deserts, and glaciers, human habitation and human and economic activity should be limited. In this chapter, natural and human dynamics are examined by analyzing current changes and future population trends in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. A critical question that should be asked is what can be done regarding environmental sustainability during the crisis and what lessons will be learnt to best apply them in a post-COVID-19 world?
Changing Dynamics with COVID-19:
Future Outlook
Cengiz Kahraman, Christian Orobello, and Giuseppe T. Cirella
Abstract Today, human activities are developing at a drastic speed with little limi-
tation. Excessive development can be problematic to human health as well as reduce
the sustainability of natural resources. At present, the COVID-19 pandemic has
affected the whole world and adversely has impacted a broad range of human activ-
ities, including the economy, agriculture, tourism, and transportation. The excessive
increase from globalization, unplanned urbanization, and the destruction of nature
(i.e., due to ongoing human activity) have been partially to blame for the current state
of the planet. The human population has tripled over the last 70 years. In addition,
existing agricultural areas of the world yield lower rates—especially in underdevel-
oped or developing countries. Moreover, climate change has affected agricultural
areas and caused a shrinkage in production patterns. As a result, an increasing popu-
lation has decreased access to their cultural foods, leaving them with few options, and
these unhealthy dietary options frame detrimental long-term concerns. As a result,
the human–nature relationship must be considered and decisions made. In sensi-
tive areas, especially in mountainous regions, tropical forests, deserts, and glaciers,
human habitation and human and economic activity should be limited. In this chapter,
natural and human dynamics are examined by analyzing current changes and future
population trends in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. A critical question that should
be asked is what can be done regarding environmental sustainability during the crisis
and what lessons will be learnt to best apply them in a post-COVID-19 world?
Keywords COVID-19 pandemic ·World population ·Demographic projection ·
Sustainable agriculture ·Healthy environment
C. Kahraman (B
)
Faculty of Engineering, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Istanbul, Turkey
e-mail: cengiz.kahraman@istanbul.edu.tr
C. Orobello ·G. T. Cirella
Faculty of Economics, University of Gdansk, Sopot, Poland
e-mail: christian.orobello@ug.edu.pl
G. T. Cirella
e-mail: gt.cirella@ug.edu.pl
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022
G. T. Cirella (ed.), Human Settlements, Advances in 21st Century Human Settlements,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-4031-5_13
235
... When analyzing national security factors, it is essential to consider the state's historical experience; the mentality, traditions, and customs of its people; as well as its national characteristics. Common global challenges faced by countries worldwide include international terrorism; hybrid military conflicts; civil strife arising from social, economic, interethnic, and humanitarian contradictions; struggle for energy resources (Cirella et al., 2021;Goncharuk & Cirella, 2020;Spring & Cirella, 2022); climate change; conflicts on religious grounds; man-made disasters; ethnic and interethnic conflicts; migration (i.e., due to military, civil conflicts, poverty, and political instability); health-related events [e.g., pandemic outbreaks (Kahraman et al., 2022;Lin et al., 2020;McPhail et al., 2023)]; drug trafficking; arms trade; trafficking in human beings; organized crime; corruption; and other illicit activities (Novikov, 2021). Ukraine shares these challenges concerning the functionality of its national security and security apparatus. ...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter presents an extensive examination of a framework aimed at adjusting nation-building and the significance of public administration within Ukraine’s national security architecture. Given the ever-changing geopolitical landscape, ensuring the protection of the country’s national security is of paramount importance. The execution of public administration functions related to national security is influenced by internal processes concerning territorial integrity and internationally recognized borders. Key priorities for Ukraine’s national security include safeguarding state sovereignty, upholding human and civil rights, advocating for the interests of its population, promoting transparency, and adhering to democratic principles. Ukraine’s geopolitical position, coupled with its unique geographic, climatic, political, and socioeconomic characteristics, shapes the distinct elements of its national security system’s development. As a consequence, it is imperative to consider these factors along with the mechanisms that impact the public governance of national security, particularly concerning the ongoing conflict with the Russian Federation. Through a comprehensive analysis of recent challenges, prospective information and communication technology developments in the national security system, and Ukraine’s distinctive attributes, are looked at to provide recommendations for implementing best practices in managing national security concerns.
... This chapter explores these critical national security requisites, in an umbrella effect applied to the development economics of the country, by looking at how they can be improved and strengthened. National security requisites take into consideration the intricate connections with human-nature relations, the unprecedented challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the imperative need for energy mix security, all of which have far-reaching implications for the country's development economics Fu et al., 2022;Kahraman et al., 2022;Spring & Cirella, 2022). Since the COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped perceptions of national security, emphasis should consider the importance of preparedness, crisis management, and global cooperation, e.g., vulnerabilities in supply chains, the critical need for healthcare infrastructure, and the importance of scientific research in addressing emerging threats (Lewandowski & Cirella, 2022). ...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter conceptually demonstrates the use of a framework of state regulation of information and communication technology (ICT) for national security in Ukraine and pinpoints key areas for improvement. Its focus begins with an analysis and theoretical breakdown for a national security framework by examining state regulation of ICT and its impact on the effective functioning of the national security system of the country. Problems of implementation are proposed in terms of transforming ICT concepts to state regulation via two security measures: information security and cybersecurity. Mechanisms for solving problems related to the coordination of actions of state regulation of ICT are formed via the main authorized body and coordinating councils. State coordination of ICT is divided into three levels, i.e., local, regional, and national, and mirrors the country’s scientific, technical, and socioeconomic development plans. The use of a public and state monitoring system is considered key to the improvement of an economy’s competitiveness, its integration around the world, and the efficiency of public administration and local self-government. These strategic improvements require a rethinking and restructuring of the country’s socioeconomic blueprint by incorporating an information society from poorly run to high-tech and ICT-friendly. This transformation will aid the advancement of socioeconomics by synthesizing scientific-based, real-world scenarios of interconnecting and ensuring a cohesive national security system. The development of mechanisms for the coordination of such security measures, in connection with the complexity of emerging problems and the connectivity of such activities, is urgently needed. It is proposed that the network of coordinating councils will operate with the most competent public and private enterprises, institutions, and organizations to aid in harmonizing ICT initiatives and form and strengthen the overall level of Ukraine’s national security apparatus.
... In 2019, global exports surpassed USD 18.1 trillion, as reported by 132 countries (Trend Economy, 2020). However, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (Kahraman et al., 2022), it experienced a decline of nearly USD 1 trillion in 2020. The leading exporters, including China, the United States, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Italy ( Fig. 5.1), maintained their positions in the market. ...
Chapter
Full-text available
The topical issue of organizations utilizing modern management technologies to promote environmentally sustainable domestic production is of utmost importance for their integration into the global economy. This chapter delves into how these modern technologies can serve as vital tools for achieving balanced and intelligent production, thereby empowering Ukrainian enterprises to undergo post-war reconstruction and enhance their participation in the global economy while adhering to environmental standards. Specifically, Ukrainian organizations must reassess their management strategies and update nationwide standards to align with the International Organization for Standardization. This necessitates greater emphasis on environmental programs and projects, attracting financial resources, and establishing an effective investment system, notably through increased exportation. Presently, the existing production management system in many Ukrainian enterprises falls short in adequately addressing environmental concerns. This is primarily due to the limited use of effective management tools and a lack of environmental awareness within these organizations. To achieve effective post-war management and ecological safety in Ukrainian enterprises and products, it is imperative to abandon outdated practices and prioritize the ecological aspect as a key condition for economic efficiency in production. The formation of a Ukrainian strategy for environmentally friendly production management is analyzed and compared internationally with the top ten ranked countries in the world. The research reveals that for Ukraine to transform into an ecological and resource-efficient production-based country, a complete restructuring of its technological cycle is essential, along with the implementation of measures to improve the environment and working conditions. Additionally, addressing the low level of oversight and penalties for violating environmental safety regulations is vital in fostering a greater economic interest among enterprises to adopt environmental management systems. To address these challenges and pave the way for a greener Ukrainian production landscape, it is crucial to monitor the ecological state of economic entities and enhance existing mechanisms for managing and protecting the environment. By leveraging modern management technologies, the post-war reconstruction of Ukrainian enterprises should aim to improve their competitiveness and gain a significant advantage by embracing green production practices.
... The impact of globalization processes on environmental development, facilitated by coordinated ICT systems, has brought about revolutionary changes in societies and the corresponding economic entities they operate within (Ferner & Quintanilla, 2002;Fu et al., 2022;Kyove et al., 2021;Lessard & Teece, 2016). The modern civilization we witness today has evolved through the amalgamation of data, opinions (e.g., from social media), and perceptions sourced from the information society, culminating in the creation of a new social reality (Fuentes & Peterson, 2021;Kahraman et al., 2022;Kapoor et al., 2017;Sun, 2021). This new reality fosters the generation and consumption of information resources on a daily basis, utilizing advanced ICT systems to provide valuable insights and sustainable applications that integrate harmoniously with the environment. ...
Chapter
Full-text available
Information and communication technology (ICT), in general, is widely understood as a building block for the social and economic dimensions of society. The informatization of social and economic activities is widely available online and closely interlinked with ecological aspects. This chapter is devoted to the problems of developing the ecological dimension, by way of an ICT system, that caters to national security by integrating it. Scholars have linked this issue and noted a catalyst-like effect on the level of environmental awareness and development of people. Modern societies avail that informed, information-friendly citizens can increase their awareness and expand their country’s integration into the world system of sustainability and environmental thinking. Specifically, a look at the different ICT properties in the context of an ecological view is identified alongside the question of how broad national security systems can be formed. A methodological ICT framework for environmental development is presented via three requisites, i.e., forming ecological policy, categorizing ICT processes, and monitoring environmental perception and awareness. This overriding view is thought to be able to strengthen the foundational outlook of society, i.e., via an active participatory public, willing to engage in environmental development for national security and its own self-interest. Using this background, Ukraine is evaluated, and options are presented to help rectify the country’s lack of initiative. Case research into Ukraine elucidates that affording the state with effective, theoretical, and applied mechanisms that monitor the activities of ICT, in terms of environmental development, is a practical solution and could assist in the current war effort. It is believed that this will actively function as a basis for the formation and strengthening of the country’s national security—especially via internal and external threats—posed by hostile entities (e.g., the Russian Federation), anti-environmental actions, and a business-as-usual school of thought. Current trends in the development of the internet and its relationship with the processes of national security are studied and systematized. Sequential steps are presented to help develop long-term ICT ecological planning, and a synthesis of the main ICT components is categorized. Moreover, site-specific environmental laws are examined, and the term global information space is defined. Both are considered essential to Ukraine’s information network and eco-information space. For the formation and strengthening of Ukraine’s national security apparatus, specific environmental protocols are highlighted as essential for ecological policy restructuring and reform.
... Understanding these human-nature relations is essential for creating sustainable strategies that effectively balance human needs and environmental preservation. This concept not only applies to environmental assessment but also has significant implications for various sectors, including tourism (Britannica, 2023;Jiao et al., 2021;Perkins et al., 2021), health care (Kahraman et al., 2022), finance, and manufacturing and production. ...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter presents a comprehensive analysis aimed at devising an effective model for post-war reconstruction for the adaptive management of manufacturing enterprises in Ukraine. When formulating this system, careful consideration must be given to the introduction of innovative technologies, along with a well-thought-out territorial distribution of labor to facilitate the training of highly skilled specialists. The proposed management system of Ukraine’s manufacturing enterprises will need to be characterized by instability in business to challenge the socioeconomic and political circumstances in a post-war period. To maintain a competitive edge, territorial production complexes in Ukraine must establish clusters and focus on enhancing their management practices while adapting to the frequent changes across the national economy. The primary objective for territorial production complexes is to develop a system of adaptive management for manufacturing enterprises, utilizing scientific methods and systematic research through adaptive planning, forecasting, economic and mathematical modeling, and prioritization of economic activities. This chapter emphasizes a fresh perspective by highlighting the advantages of employing technologies and tools to model an adaptive management system specifically tailored to Ukraine’s territorial aspects of industrial development. Proposals are put forth for both enterprises and the government to take internal measures to support this initiative. Given Ukraine’s unique geographical location and historical background in Eastern Europe, a political, economic, socio-cultural, and technological (PEST) analysis method is utilized to dissect the influencing indicators by examining various macro-environmental factors and testing for potential strategic risks. Using PEST, two case research industries—the metallurgical industry and light industry—are comparatively analyzed to demonstrate the benefits derived from the modeling process. A practical post-war roadmap for implementing an adaptive management system for Ukraine’s manufacturing enterprises is suggested and structured from a top-down, managerial perspective. Recommendations are provided within the system to enable businesses to thrive amid competition and realize their strategic objectives amid risks and uncertainties. The application of the precautionary principle is also encouraged, considering the relatively limited expertise in modeling adaptive management for enterprises in Ukraine.
... The aim of this research is to investigate the correlation between the competitive position of insurance companies in Ukraine's insurance market and their territorial positioning. The research utilizes data predating the COVID-19 pandemic (Kahraman et al., 2022), focusing on the markets of 2015-2019. This study lays the foundation for a post-war reconstruction period, wherein insurance companies will play a crucial role in its ongoing development. ...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter presents an investigation into the competitiveness of Ukraine’s insurance companies during the period 2015–2019. It highlights the successful dominant market positions of companies, showcasing their resilience in the face of economic challenges. The research emphasizes the significance of different territorial characteristics and how they influence the management strategies adopted by insurance companies. Through a thorough examination of the historical dynamics of the Ukrainian insurance market, the study reveals a purification process that took place during the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in the elimination of uncompetitive companies and the subsequent growth of powerful ones. The findings demonstrate that Kyiv and Kyiv region, along with Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, emerge as the leading regions in terms of collecting insurance premiums for risky types of insurance. Moreover, the research uncovers clear trends in the territorial distribution and concentration of risk insurance across the country. To gain deeper insights into the territorial features and positioning of insurance companies, tabular data is used to establish whether a significant correlation exists between the competitive position of insurance companies and their territorial placement. In conclusion, it is imperative for Ukraine’s post-war economic development to thoroughly consider the insurance market, recognizing it as a crucial component that stimulates positive economic dynamics and has the potential to bolster economic security and foster growth. By acknowledging the significant role of the insurance sector, policymakers can devise strategic plans that leverage its benefits to propel the country’s economic recovery and progress in a positive direction.
... In the aftermath of the war, when resources might be limited and industries disrupted, a strategic marketing approach becomes even more essential for revitalizing the business landscape. As a result, the confluence of factors including market volatility, political and international instability, challenges stemming from the global impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic (Kahraman et al., 2022) and associated pandemic limitations, finite regional resources (Cirella et al., 2021;Spring & Cirella, 2022), emergence of industry and business crises, and suboptimal marketing management collectively undermines the expansion of entrepreneurial activities, which underpins sustainable development (OECD, 2022). Thus, the developmental aspects of marketing activities undertaken by businesses at the regional level, with the goal of strategically developing them, emerge as highly important. ...
Chapter
Full-text available
An effective system of marketing activities plays an important role in ensuring the competitiveness of businesses and the geographical regions in which they operate. The utilization of a wide spectrum of communication methods constitutes a complex and ever-evolving process, characterized by the ongoing emergence of innovative tools for influencing the dissemination of information. The success of enterprises in the marketplace hinges on their capacity to effectively coordinate the numerous components within this system and to pinpoint the most impactful forms of marketing communication. This chapter explores the strategies employed to construct an efficient marketing communications system within the contextual backdrop of the interdependent relationship between businesses and the regions of Ukraine in the aftermath of war. This is important given that the advancement of these regions remains intrinsically tied to enhancing the competitive prowess of commercial entities within the country. This, in turn, ensures economic progress during a period of peace and stability. Moreover, the strategic positioning of these regions in marketing terms not only invigorates entrepreneurial activities but also bolsters investment prospects. This twofold impact serves as the foundational cornerstone upon which the metrics essential for sustainable development are crafted, thereby contributing to the broader reconstruction effort. The chapter further expands its analysis by investigating the strategies that form the foundation of a viable marketing communications system, geared toward achieving a more proficient management of regional prosperity and establishing resilient enterprises that play an integral role in the process of nation building. This strategic alignment not only propels economic advancement within the regions but also stimulates the overarching marketing disposition of the country.
... For instance, the impact of corporate governance practices on financial performance might vary depending on the industry, firm size, ownership structure, and regulatory environment. Additionally, the dynamic and evolving nature of businesses in response to changing market conditions and competitive pressures may contribute to the diverse outcomes observed in different studies (Aguilera et al., 2008;Kyere & Ausloos, 2021;Kahraman et al., 2022;Lee & Suh, 2022;El-Chaarani et al., 2022;Govindan et al., 2023). To address these discrepancies and gain a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between SDGs and corporate financial performance, rigorous empirical research based on industrial samples is essential. ...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter aims to advance the scientific and practical understanding of corporate sustainability assessment in parallel with financial performance for global food and beverage companies (FBCs) with potential implications for addressing urgent environmental, social, and economic challenges in post-war Ukraine. The research explores the extent of active global FBCs’ engagement in sustainable development, evaluates the impact of their sustainable initiatives on financial performance, and investigates whether these companies gain any competitive advantages compared to industry trends. To achieve these objectives, this study analyzes the implementation of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by internationally renowned FBCs and compares the financial performance of FBCs that have incorporated SDG strategies with the industry’s average performance. The study encompasses 27 food manufacturing companies recognized as sustainability leaders according to “The Sustainability Yearbook” for the period 2018–2020. Hypotheses are tested regarding the correlation between companies’ performance and the level of corporate sustainability. Corporate sustainability functions as the factor variable, represented by its level, while financial indicators of companies’ activities, such as the rate of change in sales, net profit margin, and return on equity, serve as the dependent variables. Based on empirical findings, the research reveals that FBCs embracing the concept of corporate sustainability are actively implementing SDGs, presenting a potential business contribution toward Ukraine’s modernization and development. Furthermore, the research emphasizes that incorporating sustainability-focused practices may not always result in immediate financial gains for FBC shareholders, underscoring the importance of external incentives to drive positive outcomes. In summary, nurturing corporate sustainability and promoting responsible investments can enable post-war Ukraine to become an appealing hub for businesses, all while pursuing overarching sustainability objectives. Collaborative efforts toward building a sustainable and prosperous future will play a pivotal role in achieving long-term economic development and resilience in the country.
... The destruction, displacement, and human suffering that conflicts bring in their wake are inherently unsustainable. They disrupt social cohesion, erode economic structures, and scar the environment, leaving a legacy of lasting negative impacts that ripple across time and space (Reuveny et al., 2010;Nygård, 2017;Kahraman et al., 2022;Racioppi et al., 2022). ...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter presents a thorough and in-depth examination of Ukraine’s capacity to drive sustainable development, with specific emphasis on its contribution within the global supply chain. The chapter critically evaluates the ramifications stemming from the military aggression by the Russian Federation, while connecting these outcomes to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By analyzing the aftermath of armed conflict within the framework of sustainable development processes, the intricate impact of each SDG is investigated within a broader socioeconomic context. The research delves into the challenges confronting Ukraine and subsequently explores the cascading effects that reverberate through the global socioeconomic landscape. Building upon this comprehensive analysis, the chapter presents strategic recommendations designed to guide sustainable development during the intricate phase of post-war reconstruction. The narrative underscores Ukraine’s influential role in upholding global stability and contends that the international community is summoned to construct new paradigms of collective security, fortify measures related to food security, and foster resilient international collaborations aimed at propelling sustainable development, collaborative initiatives, and lasting harmony. Through this thought-provoking discourse, a panoramic view emerges, unveiling Ukraine’s profound potential in shaping global sustainability amidst the intricate tapestry of post-conflict scenarios.
... These accommodations, blending the comforts of a home with the convenience of a hotel, cater adeptly to the needs of travelers who seek respite and leisure amid the tranquil embrace of secluded locales (Downey, 1991). This emerging trend carries particular relevance in the context of the present era marked by the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic (Kahraman et al., 2022) and the transformative impact of recent conflicts. As individuals yearn for sanctuaries of tranquility, the allure of serene retreats nestled in remote and unspoiled regions gains prominence, thereby substantiating the strategic relevance of aparthotels and similar styled hotel complexes. ...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter explores post-war territorial planning within Ukraine’s robust tourism sector, a cornerstone of the country’s economy valued at USD 1.4 billion in 2021. With a particular spotlight on the hotel complex construction industry, this study details key factors, including diverse topographies, landscapes, climatic nuances, and architectural styles throughout Ukraine. Each of these factors distinctly shapes the imperative requisites for future development, as well as steering the overarching mechanisms that propel industry growth and the country’s rejuvenation. The intricacies of constructing hotel complexes are further molded by an interlinkage between national legal frameworks and international benchmarks. Significant differences emerge among hotel complex categories, needing tailored evaluations in terms of accessibility. From the aftermath of conflict coupled with the enduring ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic, this chapter underscores a subset of travelers seeking tranquil and leisurely retreats, marked by a preference for minimal social interaction. This notion has spurred the emergence of hotel complexes nestled within remote and secluded locales. The central premise, in this case, orbits around an extensive elucidation of prerequisites for construction, logistical aspects linked to accessing these complexes, guest-oriented comfort provisions, security protocols, and seamless integration with the surrounding natural milieu. Through this comprehensive framework, the discourse resonates with the evolving landscape of tourism, rendering this chapter an indispensable reference for navigating the intricate interplay of spatial planning, tourism development, and post-conflict redevelopment within Ukraine.
Article
Full-text available
This paper elaborates an aspirations–capabilities framework to advance our understanding of human mobility as an intrinsic part of broader processes of social change. In order to achieve a more meaningful understanding of agency and structure in migration processes, this framework conceptualises migration as a function of aspirations and capabilities to migrate within given sets of perceived geographical opportunity structures. It distinguishes between the instrumental (means-to-an-end) and intrinsic (directly wellbeing-affecting) dimensions of human mobility. This yields a vision in which moving and staying are seen as complementary manifestations of migratory agency and in which human mobility is defined as people’s capability to choose where to live, including the option to stay, rather than as the act of moving or migrating itself. Drawing on Berlin’s concepts of positive and negative liberty (as manifestations of the widely varying structural conditions under which migration occurs) this paper conceptualises how macro-structural change shapes people’s migratory aspirations and capabilities. The resulting framework helps to understand the complex and often counter-intuitive ways in which processes of social transformation and ‘development’ shape patterns of migration and enable us to integrate the analysis of almost all forms of migratory mobility within one meta-conceptual framework.
Article
Full-text available
The outbreak of COVID-19 raised numerous questions on the interactions between the occurrence of new infections, the environment, climate and health. The European Union requested the H2020 HERA project which aims at setting priorities in research on environment, climate and health, to identify relevant research needs regarding Covid-19. The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 appears to be related to urbanization, habitat destruction, live animal trade, intensive livestock farming and global travel. The contribution of climate and air pollution requires additional studies. Importantly, the severity of COVID-19 depends on the interactions between the viral infection, ageing and chronic diseases such as metabolic, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and obesity which are themselves influenced by environmental stressors. The mechanisms of these interactions deserve additional scrutiny. Both the pandemic and the social response to the disease have elicited an array of behavioural and societal changes that may remain long after the pandemic and that may have long term health effects including on mental health. Recovery plans are currently being discussed or implemented and the environmental and health impacts of those plans are not clearly foreseen. Clearly, COVID-19 will have a long-lasting impact on the environmental health field and will open new research perspectives and policy needs.
Article
Full-text available
The paper highlights several food and nutrition-related challenges encountered during the COVID-19 pandemic, including food and water safety, supply chain disruptions, food and water insecurity, consumer and food behavior, malnutrition and nutrient intakes, food surveillance technology, as well as potential post-COVID-19 strategies. Its main objective is to stimulate robust scientific discussions on existing research gaps and to develop long-term “exit strategies” to prepare for future pandemics.
Article
Full-text available
COVID-19 spreads via aerosols, droplets, fomites and faeces. The built environment that facilitates crowding increases exposure and hence transmission of COVID-19 as evidenced by outbreaks in both cool-dry and hot-humid climates, such as in the US prison system and dormitories in Singapore, respectively. This paper explores how the built environment influences crowding and COVID-19 transmission, focusing on informal urban settlements (slums). We propose policy and practice changes that could reduce COVID-19 transmission. There are several issues on how COVID-19 affects informal urban settlements. Slum populations tend to be younger than the overall population. Lower numbers of older people lessen the morbidity and mortality of the pandemic in slum areas. Second, many slum populations are highly mobile. By returning to their ancestral villages residents can avoid the risks of overcrowding and reduce the population density in a given area but may spread COVID-19 to other areas. Third, detection and registration of COVID-19 cases depends on patients presenting to health care providers. If the risk of visiting a health care centre outweighs the potential benefits patients may prefer not to seek treatment. The control and prevention of COVID-19 in informal urban settlements starts with organizing community infrastructure for diagnosis and treatment and assuring that basic needs (food, water, sanitation, health care and public transport) are met during quarantine. Next, community members at highest risk need to be identified and protected. Low-income, informal settlements need to be recognized as a reservoir and source for persistent transmission. Solutions to overcrowding must be developed for this and future pandemics. In view of the constant risk that slums present to the entire population decisive steps need to be taken to rehabilitate and improve informal settlements, while avoiding stigmatization.
Article
Full-text available
The global outbreak of COVID-19 requires us to accurately predict the spread of disease and decide how adopting corresponding strategies to ensure the sustainable development. Most of the existing infectious disease forecasting methods are based on the classical Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model. However, due to the highly nonlinearity, nonstationarity, sensitivities to initial values and parameters, SIR type models would produce large deviations in the forecast results. Here, we propose a framework of using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the model parameters, and then the data assimilation based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter to update model trajectory by cooperating with the real time confirmed cases, so as to improve the predictability of the pandemic. Based on this framework, we have developed a global COVID-19 real time forecasting system. Moreover, we suggest that big data associated with the spatiotemporally heterogeneous pathological characteristics, social environment in different countries should be assimilated to further improve the COVID-19 predictability. It is hoped that the accurate prediction of COVID-19 will contribute to the adjustments of prevention and control strategies to contain the pandemic, and help achieving the SDG goal of “Good Health and Well-Being”.
Article
Full-text available
Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2′s origin is still controversial. Genomic analyses show SARS-CoV-2 likely to be chimeric, most of its sequence closest to bat CoV RaTG13, whereas its receptor binding domain (RBD) is almost identical to that of a pangolin CoV. Chimeric viruses can arise via natural recombination or human intervention. The furin cleavage site in the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 confers to the virus the ability to cross species and tissue barriers, but was previously unseen in other SARS-like CoVs. Might genetic manipulations have been performed in order to evaluate pangolins as possible intermediate hosts for bat-derived CoVs that were originally unable to bind to human receptors? Both cleavage site and specific RBD could result from site-directed mutagenesis, a procedure that does not leave a trace. Considering the devastating impact of SARS-CoV-2 and importance of preventing future pandemics , researchers have a responsibility to carry out a thorough analysis of all possible SARS-CoV-2 origins.
Article
Full-text available
Strengthening health systems and maintaining essential service delivery during health emergencies response is critical for early detection and diagnosis, prompt treatment, and effective control of pandemics, including the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Health information systems (HIS) developed during recent Ebola outbreaks in West Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) provided opportunities to collect, analyze, and distribute data to inform both day-to-day and long-term policy decisions on outbreak preparedness. As COVID-19 continues to sweep across the globe, HIS and related technological advancements remain vital for effective and sustained data sharing, contact tracing, mapping and monitoring, community risk sensitization and engagement, preventive education, and timely preparedness and response activities. In reviewing literature of how HIS could have further supported mitigation of these Ebola outbreaks and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, 3 key areas were identified: governance and coordination, health systems infrastructure and resources, and community engagement. In this concept study, we outline scalable HIS lessons from recent Ebola outbreaks and early COVID-19 responses along these 3 domains, synthesizing recommendations to offer clear, evidence-based approaches on how to leverage HIS to strengthen the current pandemic response and foster community health systems resilience moving forward.
Article
Full-text available
The crisis caused by COVID-19 has affected research in a variety of ways. As far as research on sustainable development is concerned, the lockdown has significantly disrupted the usual communication channels and, among other things, has led to the cancellation of meetings and long-planned events. It has also led to delay in the delivery of research projects. There is a gap in the literature in regards to how a global crisis influences sustainability research. Therefore, this groundbreaking paper undertakes an analysis of the extent to which COVID-19 as a whole, and the lockdown in particular, has influenced sustainability research, and it outlines the solutions pursued by researchers around the world to overcome the many challenges they have experienced. This paper also outlines some measures that may be implemented in the future to take more advantage of existing technologies that support research on sustainable development.
Article
Data from two Indian states give detail about variation in transmission and disease outcomes
Article
The COVID-19 pandemic has placed enormous strain on countries around the world, exposing long-standing gaps in public health and exacerbating chronic inequities. Although research and analyses have attempted to draw important lessons on how to strengthen pandemic preparedness and response, few have examined the effect that fragmented governance for health has had on effectively mitigating the crisis. By assessing the ability of health systems to manage COVID-19 from the perspective of two key approaches to global health policy—global health security and universal health coverage—important lessons can be drawn for how to align varied priorities and objectives in strengthening health systems. This Health Policy paper compares three types of health systems (ie, with stronger investments in global health security, stronger investments in universal health coverage, and integrated investments in global health security and universal health coverage) in their response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and synthesises four essential recommendations (ie, integration, financing, resilience, and equity) to reimagine governance, policies, and investments for better health towards a more sustainable future.