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Media Konservasi Vol.26 No.1 April 2021: 52-62 ISSN: 0215-1677
DOI: 10.29244/medkon.26.1.52-62 E-ISSN: 2502-6313
52
MAPPING THE DISTRIBUTION OF SALTWATER CROCODILE (Crocodylus porosus)
AND RISKS OF HUMAN-CROCODILE CONFLICTS IN SETTLEMENTS AROUND
KUTAI NATIONAL PARK, EAST KALIMANTAN
RAMDANI*), MIRZA DIKARI KUSRINI, AND LILIK BUDI PRASETYO
Department of Forest Resources Conservation and Ecotourism, Faculty of Forestry, IPB Campus Dramaga, Bogor
16680, Indonesia
*Email: ramdanimanurung15@gmail.com
Accepted September 26, 2020 / Approved February 26, 2021
ABSTRACT
Human-crocodile conflicts (HCC) are problems affecting crocodile conservation. Scientific publications on crocodile attack cases in Indonesia
are few with low validation which hinder optimal conflict mitigation efforts. The estuarine river of Kutai National Park is a natural habitat for
saltwater crocodiles and mostly nearby dense settlements. This study aims to map the distribution of saltwater crocodiles and potential conflicts in the
Kutai National Park area. To predict the distribution of saltwater crocodiles, we used Maximum Entropy MAXENT with its environmental predictors
i.e. slope, altitude, distance from shore, distance from river, temperature, and habitat types (mangrove forest, freshwater swamp, and shrubs).
MAXENT prediction showed that elevation was the most influential variable with AUC (Average Under Curve) value of 0.952. Settlements with
activities occurring within one kilometer from the river and those adjacent to coastal areas proved to be the highest in human conflicts with
crocodiles.
Key words: conflict, crocodile, human, MAXENT
INTRODUCTION
Human-wildlife conflict is one of the threats to the
decreasing population of some species of wildlife.
Competition between humans and wildlife for shared
limited resources in an area has brought losses both to
the wildlife and humans (Dickman 2010). Negative
interaction such as in the case of tiger-human conflicts
can occur due to competition for resources (Nugraha and
Sugardjito 2009).
Reptiles often cause death in human-wildlife
conflicts. According to reports from the WHO (World
Health Organization), in Southeast Asia, South Asia, and
Sub-Saharan Africa countries, there are 421 thousand
snakebites cases per year which often result in injury and
death (Subroto and Lismayanti 2017). Besides snakes
and komodos, crocodiles are also recorded as a type of
reptile that often negatively interacts with humans
(Longkumer et al. 2017). This negative interaction often
occurs in conservation areas adjacent to settlements, such
as in the case of human-komodo conflicts that happened
in Komodo National Park, especially in Komodo Village
and Rinca Village (Ramadhani 2018).
The problem that affects crocodile conservation is
human-crocodile conflict. The most common causes of
crocodile attacks are the decrease in the natural habitat of
crocodiles, the decrease in crocodile prey populations,
and high human activities in the crocodile home range
(Webb et al. 2010). In addition, crocodiles are
opportunistic predators, so humans are not excluded from
becoming one of the alternative prey for crocodiles when
their natural prey is reducing or even depleted in their
habitat (Caldicott et al. 2005).
There are only a few scientific publications that
discuss crocodile attack cases in Indonesia. Information
about crocodile attacks is often published in mass media
which can be accessed through electronic media,
newspapers, and direct information from communities
around the crocodile habitat. However, there is a limited
number of scientific papers that discuss the number of
cases of human-crocodile conflicts in general in
Indonesia, including the types of attacks and their causes.
Limited access to information regarding crocodile attacks
is the main problem of difficulties for conflict mitigation.
A global crocodile attack database was launched in 2013
which contained data on crocodile attacks in various
countries (CrocBITE 2013). Based on information from
the database, Indonesia ranked first for crocodile attacks
with 1028 cases since 1845 (CrockBITE 2013).
Ardiantiono et al. (2015) divide crocodile attack cases
based on the data from CrocBITE website into two
periods: period I (1845-1890) and period II (2000-2014).
In period II, crocodile attack cases were increasing in
southern Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi.
Kalimantan has the most cases of crocodile attacks in
Indonesia by 21 cases (CrocBITE 2013).
Kutai National Park with an area of 198,629 ha was
established in 1995 based on the Decree of the Minister
of Forestry No. 325/Kpts-II/1995. This area has
mangroves, rivers, and estuary ecosystems as the main
habitat for the saltwater crocodiles (Crocodylus porosus)
which is adjacent to the locals' settlement in Bontang
City. A populated city with crocodile habitats is more
likely to create conflicts. This research aims at mapping
the risk points for human-crocodile conflicts in the
Media Konservasi Vol.26 No.1 April 2021: 52-62
53
settlements around Kutai National Park and it is expected
that this research can be used as a reference in planning
conflict mitigation and crocodile conservation in Kutai
National Park.
RESEARCH METHOD
This research was conducted on March - April 2019
and the data were collected from settlements around
Kutai National Park (East Kalimantan Province),
particularly around Bontang City including Sangkima
Subdistrict and Sangatta Subdistrict (East Kutai
Regency). Below is a map of the location of research
data collection (Figure 1).
The instruments used in this research included
Maximum Entropy Modeling (MAXENT) version
3.4.1k, ArcGis 10.5, cameras, GPS (Global Positioning
System), and MS. Excel. The materials used in this
research included coordinate data of crocodile attacks on
humans and crocodile discoveries, Kutai National Park
basemap, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Indonesia
geospatial map (Rupa Bumi Indonesia/RBI), and Landsat
8 imagery.
The existence of crocodiles was obtained through
direct observation, with the first step by searching for
information on the whereabouts of crocodiles from the
community around the crocodile habitat. Based on the
results of the direct observation, the researchers then
traced it based on the information on crocodile sightings.
The historical location of the crocodile sightings by the
community was then marked with a point using a GPS.
Direct observation was also carried out around the waters
in Bontang, Sangatta, and Sangkima to get the current
crocodile sighting points. Crocodile sighting was also
carried out through direct observation during the day
when the crocodiles were sunbathing. The observation
was carried out using boats on the Sangatta River, while
in Sangkima and Bontang City, the observations were
done on foot along the riverbanks.
Data of potential conflict were collected through
semi-structured interviews with respondents. This
method was to provide opportunities for the locals to
share their experiences and express their opinions
(Pramusanti 2001). The respondents were selected using
purposive sampling method according to the criteria and
research objectives or with certain considerations
(Sugiyono 2010). The criteria were crocodile finders,
crocodile attack victims, relatives, and family of
crocodile attack victims. The questions for the
respondents were the information about the location of
the encounter or attack, the form of attack, the time of the
attack, the part that was attacked, the activities before the
attack, the location of treatment, and the possibility of
crocodile attacks.
Figure 1 Map of research area on crocodile distribution and risks of human-crocodile conflicts in settlements around
Kutai National Park
Mapping The Distribution of Saltwater Crocodile
54
Data processing was performed using MAXENT
application. The predictive modeling of crocodile
distribution in order is presented in Figure 2, then the
results of data processing are analyzed descriptively.
The results of predictive modeling of the
distribution of saltwater crocodiles were then used as the
material to observe areas in settlements around Kutai
National Park that had the potential for human-crocodile
conflicts through an overlay analysis. Overlay analysis
was conducted using the results of predictive modeling
of crocodile distribution, with historical points of human-
crocodile conflicts and maps of human activities.
The human-crocodile conflict risk mapping was
made based on a reclassification of predictive modeling
of saltwater crocodile distribution, which was the
prediction of high presence with a score of 1, prediction
of moderate presence with a score of 2, and prediction of
low presence with a score of 3. The classification was
done using the natural breaks method or clear
breakpoints method. Based on the results of
reclassification of predictive modeling of saltwater
crocodile distribution, then it was overlaid with the
distribution of community activities which were
classified into 3 classes of high, moderate, and low
activity. High activity is an activity with a distance of
less than 1 km from the crocodile habitat which is given
a score of 1, moderate activity is an activity with a
distance of 1-2 km which is given a score of 2, and low
activity with a distance of 2-3 km is given a score of 3.
The risk of conflict occurs if human activities are carried
out near the crocodile habitat. The risk of human-
crocodile conflicts is classified into 3 classes, which are
high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. An area is said to
be at high risk if the community activities are carried out
within a distance of less than 1 km from the crocodile
habitat which is predicted to be high. Moderate risk is an
area with community activities carried out 1-2 km from
the crocodile habitat which is predicted to be high or
moderate, while the low risk is 2-3 km from the crocodile
habitat which is predicted to be high to low (Table 1).
Figure 2 Flowchart mapping of crocodile distribution and risk of human-crocodile conflicts
Media Konservasi Vol.26 No.1 April 2021: 52-62
55
Table 1 Classification of level of risk for human-crocodile conflicts
Description: 1 = high risk, 2 = moderate risk, >2 = low risk
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
1. Prediction of Crocodile Distribution Using
Maxent Application
a. Crocodile distribution
There were 70 points found based on the results of
interview and direct observation of crocodiles found in
Bontang, Sangatta, and Sangkima. The majority of points
were found in Sangatta area. Crocodiles were found in
their main habitats, such as in mangroves, seas, lakes,
saltwater, ditches, rivers and ponds. The river is the
habitat where crocodiles are mostly found (Figure 3).
Figure 3 Percentage of crocodiles in several habitats
b. Model accuracy test
Based on the mean value of the sensitivity and
specificity graphs (Figure 4), the AUC (Area Under
Curve) value is 0.952 with a standard deviation of 0.013.
The AUC value shows a good result of the modeling
evaluation.
Figure 4 AUC values on sensitivity and specificity
curves
The graph of average omission and predicted area
(Figure 5) shows high accuracy, as the bias value is quite
low. It can be seen from the blue and green lines around
the black line which are biased predictions.
Figure 5 Illustration of omission and protected area
curves
Based on the results of AUC test (Figure 6), the
environmental variables which give the most influence
on performance in assessing the predictive modeling are
elevation, distance to shore, and slope. It is because the
elevation variable is classified as continuous and has a
wide range and range of data. The distance from river
variable is the most important variable as indicated by
the green line on the curve as the AUC value decreases if
the distance from river variable is removed.
The magnitude of the influence of environmental
variables on the model is also shown by the table of
percent contribution and permutation importance (Table
2). The elevation variable is the most influential variable
with a contribution value of 55.5%. The model is
influenced by variables of river distance, distance from
shore, temperature, mangrove forest, swamp, slope, and
shrubs.
c. Response curves of environmental variables
The crocodiles are predicted to live at an altitude
less than 50 meters and the slope from 0-5 meters. It is
because crocodiles are mostly found in downstream
areas, shores, and flat topography in areas where
crocodiles are predicted to be high. Non-linear response
curves are responses from environmental variables that
are not influenced by other variables. The following is an
illustration of the elevation response curve and slope
response curve (Figure 7).
Encounter rates with crocodiles
Activity distance (Km)
1
2
3
High (1)
1
2
3
Moderate (2)
2
4
6
Low (3)
3
6
9
Mapping The Distribution of Saltwater Crocodile
56
Figure 6 The influence of environmental variables
obtained from AUC values
(description: (elevasikutai3=elevation,
mangrovekutai2=mangrove forest, pantaikutai=distance
from shore, rawakutai= freshwater swamp forest,
semakkutai=shrubs, slopekutai2=slope,
suhukutai=temperature, sungaikutai2= distance from
river)
Based on the response curves, the crocodiles in the
mangrove forest and the freshwater swamp are predicted
to be high. The higher level of dominance of mangrove
forest and freshwater swamp, the higher the prediction of
crocodiles. Shrubs are predicted to be equal in both areas
with and without shrubs. The comparison of the three
predictions for the presence of crocodiles is presented in
Figure 8.
Table 2 Comparison of contribution value of each environmental variable
Variable
Percent contribution (%)
Permutation importation (%)
Elevation
55.5
71.1
Distance from river
31.5
11.2
Distance from shore
8.6
15.3
Temperature
2.6
0.6
Mangrove
1.2
0.4
Swamp
0.4
0.8
Slope
0.3
0.4
Shrubs
0
0
(a) (b)
Figure 7 (a) Elevation response curve (b) Slope response curve
(a) (b) (c)
Figure 8 (a) Mangrove response curve (b) Freshwater swamp response curve (c) Shrubs response curve
Media Konservasi Vol.26 No.1 April 2021: 52-62
57
(a) (b)
Figure 9 (a) Distance from river response curve (b) Distance from shore response curve
Based on the response curve of distance from the
river and distance from the shore, it is known that
crocodiles are predicted to be fewer if the distance is
getting farther from rivers and shores. Crocodiles
commonly present less than 1 km from the rivers and
shores. The illustration of response curves of the distance
from the river and the distance from the coast is
presented in Figure 9.
Based on the temperature response curve, it shows
that the predicted value for the presence of crocodiles is
at a temperature of 26-28° C (Figure 10). The
temperature is also influenced by topographic conditions
which are classified as lowlands. Crocodiles need a
temperature that is hot enough for sunbathing since they
need to increase their body temperature to metabolize.
Figure 10 Temperature response curve
The prediction of crocodile population distribution
from MAXENT processing shows that elevation from
sea level is the most influential environmental variable. It
is in line with the results of other studies stating that a
good habitat for saltwater crocodiles is characterized by a
wide edge of water bodies and lush vegetation for nesting
and spawning such as downstream rivers, mangroves,
and shorelines (Somaweera et al. 2011), all of which are
on the lowlands ranging from 0-100 masl. Moreover, in
tropical areas, elevation affects the temperature in
crocodile habitat, the higher elevation of an area, the
lower the temperature in that area. Crocodile habitat
which is classified as lowland makes the temperature in
the crocodile habitat warmer. The cold-blooded nature of
crocodiles makes them try to maintain their body
temperature by sunbathing or seeking shade if their body
temperature is too high (Jayson 2002).
d. Prediction of crocodile distribution
The prediction of saltwater crocodile distribution
shows that each location of data collection has
crocodiles' presence points. The more an area
approaching the red color or scored one on the map, the
higher the predicted value for the crocodile's presence at
that point. The following is a map of prediction of
saltwater crocodile population distribution in settlements
around Kutai National Park (Figure 11).
Figure 11 Prediction map of saltwater crocodile
population distribution
Mapping The Distribution of Saltwater Crocodile
58
2. Mapping The Risk of Human-Crocodile
Conflicts
a. Crocodile attacks
Based on the results of interviews about crocodile
attacks on humans, 24 cases were reported. The impact
of the attack was bite wounds and death. As many as 12
cases of crocodile attacks were recorded that resulted in
fatalities or by 50%. Most crocodile attacks on humans
occurred in rivers (Figure 12). Based on the observation,
community activities in the river and around the river
include fishing, bathing, fish farming, and using it as a
transportation route. Most cases of crocodile attacks
occurred during 2015 – 2017 as many as 6 cases (Table
3).
Figure 12 Percentage of crocodile attacks in several
places
Currently, the presence of crocodiles around
community settlements is considered unsettling and
dangerous. Bontang City is the area with the highest
awareness of crocodiles compared to Sangatta and
Sangkima. It can be seen from the comparison of
evacuated crocodiles and wild crocodiles (Figure 13).
The data were obtained from the data of Kutai National
Park and direct observation.
Figure 13 Comparison of wild crocodiles and evacuated
crocodiles in each study location
(Source: data from Kutai Nationa Park and field
observation).
Human activities in crocodile habitats trigger
conflict between them. Conflict may occur if there is a
direct contact between humans and crocodiles which
brings negative impacts on crocodiles or humans and
even both of them. The increasing human activities and
closer settlement to the crocodile habitat is one of the
causes of direct contact between humans and crocodiles.
Another reason that causes crocodiles to approach
community settlements is people's habits that often throw
household organic waste, fishery waste, and livestock
waste into the rivers. According to Plaza and
Lambertucci (2017), rivers that are used as landfills can
change patterns of movement, migration, home range,
and individual behavior of different species, thereby
increasing various types of conflict with humans. Blake
(2002) states that crocodiles have a very good sense of
smell with the two nostrils at the end of the muzzle that
make it easier for them to smell while swimming. These
activities can trigger the crocodiles to come to the
community settlements.
Table 3. Crocodile encounter in Bontang, Sangatta, and Sangkima and the attacks
Bontang
Sangatta
Sangkima
Total respondent
17
24
17
Total crocodile
encounter spots
19
21
6
Total victim
3
8
13
Last attack report
2015
2017
2015
Common location
of attack
River, estuary, and sea
River and estuary
River and estuary
Attacked
condition
Injured to the waist, legs,
buttocks, neck and back. No
death reported
3 people were injured and 5
people died
6 people were injured and 7
people died
Human activities
during the attacks
Fishing, fish farming, traveling,
raising livestock, playing golf,
sea water therapy
Fishing, crossing rivers,
ablution, bathing, selling fish,
repairing pipes, traveling.
Bathing, gardening,
crossing river, washing
motorbikes, fishing.
evacuated
wild
Media Konservasi Vol.26 No.1 April 2021: 52-62
59
b. Mapping of the risk of human-crocodile conflicts
Based on the classification using the natural breaks
method, a map of saltwater crocodile encounters is
obtained in Figure 14. Each class has a different range of
values: the first class with a range of 0.000000001 -
0.129217864 (low encounter rates), the second class with
a range of 0.129217864 - 0.410456742 (moderate
encounter rates), and the third class with a range of
0.410456742 - 0.969133973 (high encounter rates). The
class differences are distinguished by the resolution of
each pixel. If a figure is approaching number one, it
indicates that the location has the most likely presence of
crocodiles. The map of encounter rates was then overlaid
with the map of community activities. The overlaying
results of the two maps found some areas with a high
level of conflict potential, which were Sangatta,
Sangkima, and Bontang.
The classification results of human-crocodile
conflict potential indicate that high potential is obtained
in settlements with activities less than one kilometer
away from rivers and beaches. The further the distance
from rivers and beaches, the potential for conflict is
getting moderate and gradually lowering. In addition,
activities carried out in areas with a high chance of
encountering crocodiles, such as mangroves and
freshwater swamps, have a high potential for human-
crocodile conflicts (Figure 15).
c. Efforts of Kutai National Park on human-
crocodile conflicts
Kutai National Park, assisted by the community, has
tried to overcome the risk of human-crocodile conflicts
by evacuating the crocodiles found in their settlements.
Crocodiles that are caught are moved to crocodile
habitats far from settlements. One of the crocodile
release locations is Telaga Bening lake in the Kutai
National Park. Telaga Bening lake is chosen as the
release location because it is far from settlements and has
become a natural habitat for saltwater crocodiles. Apart
from being released into their natural habitat, Kutai
National Park also moves the crocodiles to captivity in
East Kalimantan, including the Teritip Crocodile
Captivity in Balikpapan and Makroman in Samarinda. In
addition, Kutai National Park has formed a special team
to rescue wildlife, called the Wildlife Rescue Unit
(WRU). WRU focuses on saving wildlife including
crocodiles. This is in accordance with the Renja KSDAE
(2017) regarding National Priority activities in the
National Priority Program for the Development of Rural
Areas in the form of collaborative management of
conservation forests with communities around non-
conservation forest areas.
Evacuation is carried out when there is a report
from the community. Usually, the evacuation process is
assisted by the community. In Bontang area, it is also
assisted by the fire department. The rope-snare method is
applied to catch the crocodiles. Apart from direct
evacuation by WRU, some crocodiles in the settlement
are handed over directly by the community. Crocodiles
that are caught by the community are usually injured and
even dead. It happens because they do not pay attention
to the crocodile's safety during the catching process.
People use poison as bait or beat the crocodile during the
capture. The evacuation process needs to be improved to
reduce the potential for conflict. Another effort made by
Kutai National Park is the familiarization of wildlife
conflicts against community.
The effectiveness of crocodile evacuation carried
out by WRU is still unknown. The absence of tagging for
the crocodiles that were captured and released again
made the crocodiles that were evacuated unable to be
traced to their whereabouts after evacuation. The
selection for release location of evacuated crocodiles
must be considered carefully. According to Walsh and
Whitehead (1993), conflicted crocodiles should be
evacuated to captivity and should not be returned to wild
habitats since C. porosus, especially males, have a
tendency to return to their hatcheries.
Figure 14 Map classification results of saltwater crocodile encounter rates using natural breaks method
Mapping The Distribution of Saltwater Crocodile
60
Figure 15 Risk map of human-crocodile conflicts in settlements around Kutai National Park, Kalimantan
Media Konservasi Vol.26 No.1 April 2021: 52-62
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3. Human-crocodile conflict management
Crocodile attacks do not only occur in Indonesia,
many other countries have experienced similar cases.
According to Pooley (2018) in his bibliography, African,
American and the Caribbean, Australia and Oceania,
Southeast Asian and East Asian countries are
experiencing human-crocodile conflicts. Several
countries that face human-crocodile conflicts have
started to look for solutions to reduce the risks.
According to Amarasinghe et al. (2015), the causes of
human-crocodile conflict in Sri Lanka include the
destruction and loss of natural habitat due to land
encroachment by humans. The cause of the conflict in Sri
Lanka is not much different from what happened in
Kalimantan, especially in Bontang City. Bontang is the
most developed city compared to Sangatta and
Sangkima. There was a change in land use that occurred
in 2014 based on SK .4194/Menhut-VII/KUH/2014
indicating a change in land use which was previously the
Kutai National Park area. Development and land-use
changes resulted in decreased natural habitat for
crocodiles. The solutions pursued by Sri Lanka are
habitat restoration, prohibiting human encroachment in
river and swamp buffer zones, limiting the issuance of
new permits for sand mining near river estuaries (at least
10 km from river mouths), cleaning up waste and
invasive water plants in artificial watercourses to rivers,
all of these can be applied in preparing the strategies for
conflict mitigation efforts.
According to Fukuda et al. (2014), the public safety
program from human-crocodile conflicts consists of two
main programs: safety awareness education and
evacuation of crocodiles in conflict. Safety awareness
education aims at raising awareness of the risk of
crocodile attacks, while evacuation of crocodiles in
conflict must pay attention to safety. The WRU team of
Kutai National Park has been active in promoting animal
conflict awareness to schools around the area. Increasing
public awareness and awareness of the risk of human-
crocodile conflict can be applied through warning boards
for the presence of crocodiles. It has not been done
optimally by Kutai National Park and East Kalimantan
BKSDA (Nature Conservation Agency). Therefore,
public understanding and multi-stakeholders cooperation
need to be improved in order to create awareness of the
importance of coexistence between humans and wildlife.
CONCLUSION
Human activities in areas with a higher chance of
finding crocodiles, especially in mangrove and
freshwater swamp ecosystem, increase the risk of
human-crocodile conflicts. Settlements around Kutai
National Park and Bontang City with activities that are
carried out 0-1000 meters away from rivers and beaches
have the highest risk of human-crocodile conflicts.
Activities that trigger negative interaction between
humans and crocodiles include swimming, bathing,
fishing, and washing in the river. Kutai National Park has
installed warning boards on the presence of crocodiles
and evacuated crocodiles in populated settlements.
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