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Social Inclusion (ISSN: 2183–2803)
2021, Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 216–225
DOI: 10.17645/si.v9i1.3663
Article
Socio-Economic Inequity and Decision-Making under Uncertainty: West
African Migrants’ Journey across the Mediterranean to Europe
Mulugeta F. Dinbabo *, Adeyemi Badewa and Collins Yeboah
Institute for Social Development, Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, University of the Western Cape,
Cape Town, South Africa, E-Mails: mdinbabo@uwc.ac.za (M.F.D), 3759258@myuwc.ac.za (A.B.),
collins399@gmail.com (C.Y.)
* Corresponding author
Submitted: 15 September 2020 | Accepted: 17 December 2020 | Published: 25 March 2021
Abstract
Understanding the nexus between poverty, inequality and decision-making under uncertainty in migrants’ journeys across
the Mediterranean Sea to Europe remains a significant challenge, raising intense scholarly debate. Several suggestions have
been offered on how to reduce migrants’ journeys across the Mediterranean Sea to Europe in several guises, including the
formulation and implementation of propersocial, political and economic policies in Africa. Despite all odds and challenges,
migrants from Africa cross state boundaries and stay in transit state(s) for limited periods, en route the Mediterranean
Sea to Europe. Underpinned by different migration theories and conceptual frameworks, our study applied a qualitative
methodology to examine why migrants decide, under uncertainty, to cross the Mediterranean Sea from their countries
of origin to the ultimate destinations in Europe. While focusing on the life experiences of purposively selected migrants
from West Africa, the research seeks to address the underlying factors of irregular migration. The result of this empirical
study clearly illustrates that limited access to opportunities, poverty and unemployment amidst precarious development
challenges and the youth population bulge, exacerbate Africa’s migration crisis. The study finally brings into focus empirical
observations and provides suggestions for stakeholders’ engagement in addressing African migration challenges.
Keywords
decision-making; Europe; inequality; Mediterranean Sea; migration; poverty; uncertainty; West Africa
Issue
This article is part of the issue “Decision-Making under Uncertainty: African Migrants in the Spotlight” edited by Didier
Ruedin (University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa / University of Neuchâtel, Switzerland).
© 2021 by the authors; licensee Cogitatio (Lisbon, Portugal). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribu-
tion 4.0 International License (CC BY).
1. Introduction
Migration in Africa, like other parts of the world, is a
long-standing practice, spanning centuries. For diverse
purposes, persons and groups in different categories,
including students, highly- to low-skilled workers, arti-
sans, nomads, professionals, refugees, asylum seekers
and documented and undocumented migrants alike have
been confronted with the choice of travelling within and
beyond the continent. The diversity of mobility among
Africa’s population elucidates the significance of migra-
tion for Africa’s development (Adepoju, 2000). This com-
plex phenomenon has been propelled by diverse, over-
lapping and often shifting drivers (Carbone, 2017; Sithole
& Dinbabo, 2016). Hence, analysing the drivers of migra-
tion requires understanding how migrants decide to
migrate, where, when and by what means they decide
to migrate, considering the limited information at their
disposal and the inherent challenges in the process.
West Africa, as the name implies, is the westernmost
part of Africa, bordered to the north by the Maghreb
and North Africa, to the east by Central Africa and
the Atlantic Ocean to the south and west respectively.
It comprises 16 independent states, namely, Benin,
Social Inclusion, 2021, Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 216–225 216
Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia,
Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania,
Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo. Most of
these states (except Mauritania) are members of the
Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS),
an Abuja-based sub-regional intergovernmental organi-
sation established on 28 May 1975 with the signing of
the Treaty of Lagos. Officially francophone, anglophone
and lusophone, the countries share similar native lan-
guages, culture, history and customs, and are bounded
or separated by geographical features including vast
lands, deserts (including the Sahara), mountains, savan-
nahs and water bodies—rivers such as the Niger River,
lakes and the Atlantic Ocean. Language and geographical
features are two key factors that enhance intra-African
mobility towards socio-economic integration. Beyond
the considerable number of intra-African migrants and
other non-African citizens crisscrossing West Africa, the
countries of the region serve as both origin and tran-
sit for large numbers of migrants, particularly en route
to Europe.
It was the objective of our research to better under-
stand the nexus between poverty, inequality and migra-
tion decision-making under conditions of uncertainty
and people’s decisions of where to migrate given the
limited information available to them. Our study aggre-
gates the aspirations of irregular migrants from West
Africa both in countries of origin and transit and how
they maximise their ability to migrate, particularly to
Europe, despite seemingly impossible odds or difficult
barriers. The two-step models, that is, the ‘ambition to
migrate’ and the ‘ability to migrate,’ critically explain
why migrants make decisions without adequate informa-
tion and how contradictory information affects decisions,
highlights the critical factors of narratives and expec-
tations, the influence of human biases (preferences)
and bounded rationality on the ambitions to migrate
(Carling & Schewel, 2018). The subsequent sections pro-
vide a review of migration decision-making, the theoret-
ical models, methodology and discussion of our findings.
The final section offers recommendations and the gen-
eral conclusions of our study.
2. Why Do Immigrants Move To Countries in the
Global North?
Several arguments have been advanced on why immi-
grants move to countries in the Global North despite
seemingly impossible odds (Baláž, Williams, & Fifeková,
2016; Carbone, 2017; Dinbabo & Carciotto, 2015; Smith,
2019). While expectations and narratives reflecting
the preponderance of bounded rationality or biases
shape ambitions to migrate, decisions to migrate are
often affected by flawed and contradictory information.
Nevertheless, the resort to maximise the capability to
migrate in both countries of origin and transit deserves
further examination. This article, therefore, undertakes
a systematic review of literature involving the critical
appraisal of significant views and theoreticalmodels, and
does a qualitative synthesis of our research findings.
The new decision space characterised by uncertain-
ties has been unpacked in critical studies, including
synthesis of uncertainty in analytical decision-making
(Comes, Adrot, & Rizza, 2017; Kale, Kay, & Hullman,
2019). Technology, arguably, enables new forms of data
aggregation and participation, and indeed presents a
new stratum of complexity in decision- and policy-
making, while not offering the end solution (Comes
et al., 2017). This reflects the challenges of frag-
mented and ‘post-factual’ society and the contradic-
tory nature of information, further amplified by complex
socio-technical interdependencies and big data. Thus,
the imperative of participatory approaches on decision-
making in the big data era and enhanced roles of
humanitarian actors is underscored. Accordingly, Kale
et al. (2019) illustrate contemporary practices in applied
research synthesis to match design challenges. The syn-
thesis enables a feasible analytical comparison and shifts
the emphasis from rationales of decisions to impacts on
results. As established by revelations of canonical work,
people’s substitution of heuristic judgement for complex
reasons characterises how they undermine uncertainty.
Arguably, the desire to limit uncertainty leading to unwar-
ranted expressions of certainty often produces negative
decision-making consequences, individually or organisa-
tionally (Kale et al., 2019). Again, decision-making influ-
enced by uncertainty may be infused by feelings of doubt
or conflict, undermining the choice between alternative
processes of actions. Thus, the synthesis of a possible
analysis pattern, gathering information on the conviction
behind choices, and the influences of interactive systems
are significant to assessing an individual’s judgement and
decision-making under uncertainty.
Contrary to neo-classical theoretical assumptions,
potential migrants contend with information overload
and imperfect information in varying contexts (Baláž
et al., 2016; Civljak, 2019). According to Baláž et al.
(2016), the information overloads encompass the com-
plexity of diverse socio-economic matters including
crime, personal freedom, language barrier, health, cli-
mate and life satisfaction. In practice, the challenges of
missing information are surrogated by existing knowl-
edge or image of particular countries. Significantly, the
study’s experimental research methods enable proper
identification of potential migrants’ information search
patterns. Secondly, it reflects on the decision weight
attached to attributes of quality of life, especially eco-
nomic vs non-economic criteria. Thirdly it highlights the
individual’s judgement in deciding on potential migra-
tion destinations under varying conditions of informa-
tion (Baláž et al., 2016).
Similarly, individual preferences, socio-economic
environments and social interactions are significant fac-
tors for predilection or choice of decision under uncer-
tain conditions. These resonate where the desire for
self-worth validation, career opportunities, a departure
Social Inclusion, 2021, Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 216–225 217
from stifling societal or social norms, and prospects for
‘normal and happy lives’ inspire decisions to migrate
(Civljak, 2019). Accordingly, the influence of family mem-
bers, the purpose of starting a family, potential boredom
with unworthy lifestyles, the probability of repatriation
and further migration elsewhere and favourable oppor-
tunities enhance the so-called Serbian Self-Initiated
Expatriates (SIEs) decisions to live in the United States
of America. The author underscores the significance of
knowledge and transnational networks on the integra-
tion, acculturation and wellbeing of migrants amidst
uncertainties. While migrants often live in metropoli-
tan areas, transnational attachments induce opportu-
nities among them, the SIEs’ example reveals strong
evidence of prospective professional and economic
benefits through family connections and social networks
as factors for migration decisions.
Moreover, migration networks, particularly social
networks or location-specific social capital, influence
migrants’ decision-making (Haug, 2008), and by exten-
sion influence the decision to settle or return, par-
ticularly among highly-skilled first-time international
migrants (Achenbach, 2017). The Bulgarian migrants’
case illustrated in Haug (2008) reveals that social capi-
tal at the destination area positively influences emigra-
tion intentions and return migration. Contrariwise, social
capital in the residence country or area may negatively
influence return migration as illustrated in the study
of Italian migrants in Germany (Haug, 2008). Migrants’
actions reflect their larger social, economic, political
and cultural environments, and are influenced by sev-
eral factors. These environments influence their priori-
ties and values, especially the aspects of employment
and reproductive choices, settlement abroad and return
migration (Achenbach, 2017). Therefore, the significant
relations between economic and sociological facets of
migration illustrate the impacts of social capital on migra-
tion decision-making and chain migration processes.
Furthermore, the current African migratory pattern
towards Europe, compared with the 1970s influx of
Mexicans to the United States of America, illustrates
the influence of geographical proximity and adequate
knowledge of the destination and routes (including
irregular ones) shared between successful and prospec-
tive migrants; this significantly influences migrants’ deci-
sions against all odds. As a significant migrant reser-
voir, induced particularly by its youthful demography,
Smith (2019) anticipates that over 100 million African
migrants may cross the Mediterranean Sea to Europe
over the next two generations. While projecting Europe’s
demographic decline and rapidly ageing population to
enable it to accommodate some 50 million immigrants by
2050, pervasive poverty, unemployment and inequality
are central to migration decisions in sub-Saharan Africa.
Such decisions, he argued, are made possible by access
to information and affordability of internet or 4G tele-
phony by half of Africa’s population against defying odds
(Smith, 2019). Hence, through the value and perception
of his larger environments, a migrant makes decisions
(certain or uncertain) on how to achieve goals or solve
problems. The decisions to settle or return are further
impacted by a migrant’s (individual) attributes or inter-
nal processes of his social and economic environments.
Therefore, the knowledge of the above and the policy
towards it, are capable of influencing decisions on migra-
tion by diverse actors and for different purposes. These
can be understood from several theoretical assumptions.
3. Theoretical Models
Given the increasing intellectual efforts in international
migration and its interconnecting issues, the theori-
sation of migration remains inadequate when com-
pared with related fields of international transactions
(Wickramasinghe & Wimlartana, 2016). However, analy-
sis of international migration may not be pinned down
to a single theory due to the diversity and complex-
ity of its domains. Thus, the theoretical perspectives of
international migration and the categorisation of migra-
tion theories are conceived in the literature according to
the origin of such theories, relevant discipline, patterns
of migration, and the theories’ application to modern
contexts of migration. Wickramasinghe and Wimlartana
(2016) conceive a level-based analysis of migration
theories across three categories—micro-, macro- and
meso-level. Such conception resonates across disciplines
including anthropology, demography, development, eco-
nomics, geography, and sociology which endeavour to
theorise the causes and effects of migration, with special
emphasis on economic, cultural, sociological, and geo-
graphic factors (Wickramasinghe & Wimlartana, 2016).
Similarly, Kureková (2011) categorises migration the-
ories into two sub-divisions: ‘determinants of migra-
tion’ and ‘perpetuation of migration,’ based on the sub-
ject analysis. Yet, systems theory, new economics the-
ory, human capital theory, dual labour market theory
and neo-classical theory are classified within the ‘deter-
minants of migration.’ The theories classified under
the ‘perpetuation of migration,’ include transnational
migration, network theory and migration system the-
ory. In the same vein, Huzdik (2014) sub-divides theo-
ries explaining the 21st century’s migration process into
four classifications. These include historical structural
approach, behavioralist and equilibrium tradition, migra-
tion systems and theory of segmented labour. These,
accordingly, are influenced by factors including wage
differences, individual factors, economic globalisation,
economic culture, institutional capacities to enhance
migration, labour market disparities, and regional con-
trasts in the demand and supply of labour. The clas-
sifications above reflect on different assumptions and
hypotheses, research objectives, interests, pursuits and
decomposition of analyses. Therefore, the study is under-
pinned by the network theory and the decision-making
theory, as both embrace the three level-based migration
categories—micro-, macro- and meso-levels of analysis.
Social Inclusion, 2021, Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 216–225 218
The network theory explains the perpetuation of
migration flows, based on the logic that potential
migrants rely on current and former migrants, including
their social networks and information provided in the
destination countries towards cost maximisation and risk
reduction (Castles, 2000). The theory underscores the
meso-level factors—“social relations/ties among kinship
or family groups, households, friendship circles, neigh-
bourhoods and formal institutions” (Faist, 1997, p. 188).
While migration is widely considered a process and not
an event, and that macro analysis overlooks migrants
and their families’ agency and reduces their decisions
to economic factors, especially labour in the Global
North. Hence, decision-making theory encompasses the
basic assumptions of rational actors and the rational-
ity of perfect information. It centres on the following
approaches: (1) normative, i.e., models of “how ideal-
ized persons think or act,” (2) prescriptive, i.e., attempts
to enhance the decision-making processes of persons
and (3) descriptive, i.e., decision-makers’ perceptions,
constraints and processes of consideration (Achenbach,
2017, p. 49).
These illustrate the decision-making process of a
migrant in respect of an individual’s rationality, how (s)he
processes a problem or concludes on a solution, and
the timing and causality of the action birthed by the
decision. Both micro and meso-level perspectives criti-
cally underscore rational explanations of cost maximisa-
tion and risk reduction (Achenbach, 2017). Considering
the level-based analysis of understanding migration, the
two theories integrate elements of micro, macro and
meso-level categories in migration decision-making pro-
cesses and outcomes. Therefore, this study understands
migration decision as a process of the individual’s ratio-
nal thinking (primary element) and the permutations
among integrated networks of persons, social groups
and institutions (secondary element) towards the indi-
vidual’s objectives. The process of the individual’s ratio-
nal thought and behaviours channelled towards solving
problems or prospective accomplishments and the push
by the network of persons, social groups and institu-
tions illustrate the interplay between the primary ele-
ment (embodied in decision-making theory) and the sec-
ondary elements (epitomised by the network theory).
This is critical to migrant’s maximisation of costs, oppor-
tunities, information, resources and risks reduction in
achieving desired outcomes.
4. Methodology
The research methodology employed a mix of secondary
data analysis and field data collection to understand why
migrants make decisions in conditions of uncertainty,
to travel from West Africa, crossing the Mediterranean
Sea to the ultimate destination of Europe. A purpose-
ful selection of informants from West Africa, mostly
from Ghana, the Gambia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, including
West African migrants in Libya, were interviewed using a
semi-structured questionnaire. The interviews were con-
ducted in different geographical locations and spatial
settings (West and North Africa and Europe). In total,
25 interviews were conducted with refugees, asylum
seekers and return migrants as well as with employ-
ees from the International Organization for Migration
(IOM) and the United Nations High Commissioner for
Refugees (UNHCR). As part of the field data investiga-
tion, a reformulation of the narratives presented by infor-
mants, taking into account the context of each case and
the different experiences of each informant, was used.
In general, the analysis helped in revising the primary
data by researchers. Throughout the research process,
data gathered from informants were treated with con-
fidentiality and anonymity, as agreed during the con-
sent process.
Given the current situation of the COVID-19 pan-
demic and the imperative of social distancing, online
platforms/internet tools were used to collect data (tele-
phone, WhatsApp and video conferencing facilities, such
as Zoom) in the English language and then transcribed
manually. The informants’ particulars were replaced
with pseudonyms to protect their identities. The find-
ings were grouped thematically across four headlines:
decision-making under uncertainty (cost maximisation
and risk reduction), ability to migrate, sourcing infor-
mation and expectations and prospects for migration,
as deduced from both the literature and primary data.
A framework analysis was applied in terms of iden-
tifying a thematic framework, coding, charting, map-
ping and interpretation. This was done manually using
six iterative processes, i.e., data familiarisation, coding,
themes identification, themes review, labelling and rep-
etition (of processes) to produce coherent explanations.
Findings were substantiated with purposely selected
direct quotes. To arrive at conclusions, the degree of cor-
relation between the information gathered and the theo-
retical/conceptual framework was used as a guiding prin-
ciple and parameter.
5. Findings and Analysis
5.1. Decision-Making under Uncertainty: Migrants’
Rationality for Cost Maximisation and Risk Reduction
Decision-making under uncertainty is a consequence of
several choices and a set of different outcomes. This
reflects on the rationality of cost maximisation and risk
reduction (Clemens, 1996; Pate-Cornell & Dillon, 2006).
To investigate issues about migrants’ decision-making
under uncertainty or risk to leave the country of origin,
informants were asked what/who influenced their deci-
sions to migrate and if any customs or beliefs enhanced
their decisions to migrate. Nearly 70% of respondents
revealed that Libya’s ‘pull’ factor has historically been its
potential for employment opportunities and geographic
location (accessibility to Europe). Many respondents also
indicated that Libya served as a popular destination for
Social Inclusion, 2021, Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 216–225 219
migrants seeking different types of opportunities. Some
of those interviewed indicated clearly that the opportu-
nities for economic gain remain a reality for them and
Libya still presents a viable option for migration. Several
informants suggested that the road to Libya is marked
by a long desert crossing, frequently facing hunger and
thirst, leading to death in precarious conditions. Some
migrants were abused by smugglers who were supposed
to ensure their safe passage, but were notorious for rob-
bing them of their belongings and ‘dehumanising’ their
‘customers.’ Much of the time migrants are at risk, not
just from smugglers’ trafficking them but also from arrest
and detention by the authorities of the different transit
countries. The final stage of the journey is the boat ride
across the Mediterranean Sea from the Libyan coast to
southern Italy, Malta and elsewhere. The boat trip is a
common experience of migrants of all nationalities trav-
elling through Libya toward Europe. These underscore
the ‘pull factor’ of travelling to access opportunities, as
reasons for decision-making in uncertain conditions.
The informants alluded to the socio-economic cir-
cumstances in their countries, e.g., youth unemploy-
ment, poverty, inequality and difficulties in accessing
opportunities, as reasons for uncertain decision-making.
Hence, migrants make unpredictable choices in their life-
time to meet the daily requirements of family, individual
and community members. To them, this does not require
careful planning to travel from the countries of origin to
the country of destination, and without thorough con-
sideration to begin a long journey. A similar pattern, as
captured in the following quotes, was recorded amongst
migrants from Nigeria, Sierra Leone and the Gambia:
I did not inform anyone before travelling. I am a guy
who rarely discusses my big steps in life with people.
I made the decision, gathered some money and trav-
elled to Niger. It was there I met some Nigerians of like
minds to travel by road to Europe. (James, Nigerian
migrant in Tripoli, Libya)
Sometimes you must decide in a haste! Certain deci-
sions require careful planning, but when it comes to
travelling, you need to move. You have to take risks,
else nothing good will come your way. (Favour, Sierra
Leonean migrant in Tripoli, Libya)
I know it is dangerous to travel by road to Libya but
man must survive! When starvation is staring you in
the face, nobody will decide for you, but do it by force!
(Muhammed, Gambian migrant in Misrata, Libya)
I was not certain of any danger, I made a daring move
without a prior plan. I was ready to face death and sur-
vive [rather] than to starve to death. (Fred, Nigerian
migrant in Malaga, Spain)
Overall, migrants do not consider the challenges of
irregular travel. However, several respondents, especially
migrants from West Africa, reported they take individ-
ual decisions under uncertainty to risk the long trip, with
the final destination (Europe) uppermost in their minds.
In this respect, the geopolitical location of Libya makes
it a transit route for migrants moving to Italy and other
states in Europe. However, most journeys end in disas-
ter, with deaths of family members, acquaintances and
fellow travellers:
I have been to Libya since 9 January 2020, I arrived
at about 7:00 PM because I wanted to cross the sea
to Europe [Germany]. But I could not continue due to
the Coronavirus pandemic. (Uche, Nigerian migrant
in Misrata, Libya)
I will move after some time. Libya is not safe. They are
killing people now and then. Foreigners are vanishing
without a trace….I am just gathering some money to
cross the sea to Italy; that was my plan before coming
here. (Favour, Sierra Leonean migrant in Tripoli, Libya)
Indeed, some respondents reported that they fled
to Libya after escaping imprisonment or shortly after
release from custody, mostly for a limited duration in
various Libyan and Algerian towns. Despite these uncer-
tainties, customs or values often motivated respondents’
decisions to migrate, including out-migration to enhance
their situations towards achieving their final goal. In the
context of Ghana, there is a tradition or belief that a
man is not expected to sit on his ‘buttocks’ but to walk!
Respondents suggested they were born to make tough
decisions and migration is one such decision. Parents usu-
ally advise youths (in Ghana and Nigeria) to settle else-
where and start a new life away from the family home
or hometown if they want to be happy or successful.
This rationalisation, according to the respondents, has
long-term impacts on those who fail to travel but live
in their groups and fail to succeed. This situation causes
many youths to look for alternatives in uncertainties and
seek to travel overseas through Libya in search of a bet-
ter life.
Some informants of Nigerian origin maintained that
the need to be influential in their communities is among
the reasons migrants resort to irregular means of travel-
ling. Others see migration as part of the human tradition
and link it to the Biblical Noah. According to one of them:
Human beings started migrating in the time of Noah;
hence, it is an age-long event and a part of our tradi-
tion. (Uche, Nigerian migrant in Misrata, Libya)
On the whole, West African migrants interviewed were
youths, whose socio-economic problems and the per-
ceptions of El Dorado in Europe propelled their deci-
sions to leave their countries of origin amid uncertain-
ties. Moreover, as mentioned by several informants, the
absence of information, miss-perception about Europe
and social/peer pressures enhanced decisions in uncer-
Social Inclusion, 2021, Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 216–225 220
tain conditions. Following the Valletta Summit in 2015,
African and European leaders unequivocally acknowl-
edged the benefits of well-managed migration and com-
mitted to developing common strategies to address its
inherent challenges (Dinbabo & Badewa, 2020). In this
regard, the International Organization for Migration is
implementing a project funded by the European Union
Emergency Trust Fund for Africa to strengthen the protec-
tion and reintegration of migrants. As part of this initia-
tive, an awareness-raising strategy is being developed to
inform returning migrants about the possibilities of assis-
tance and protection under the EU-IOM Joint Initiative.
This strategy will also inform potential migrants, commu-
nities of origin and the public about the dangers of and
the alternatives to irregular migration. The awareness-
raising activities implemented under the project aim to
ensure that migrants make informed migration decisions.
In this regard, the IOM plays an important role in assist-
ing return migrants and providing support for the needy
across all West African countries, including Equatorial
Guinea and Mauritania.
5.2. Ability to Migrate
This is defined as a set of tasks that an individual, com-
munity or a system are potentially able to undertake at
a certain performance level with the use of internal or
external resources (Robeyns, 2003). To understand and
analyse migrants’ ability to migrate, respondents were
asked about their conditions when they considered out-
migrating, what form of risks they took to facilitate their
travel, what role the family or community played in sup-
porting their travel abroad, and how they maximised
resources amid challenges while in transit. From the
available information, respondents decided to migrate
using various means to facilitate their travel to Europe.
Several migrants confirmed that the ability or resources
to migrate include access to finance, a valid passport for
international travel, the connection with smugglers of
migrants across borders among others. These means are
often sourced from migrants’ savings, financial resources
received from family members, remittances from suc-
cessful relations and friends abroad and their connec-
tions. Some informants highlighted as follows:
I was a businessman; I was making it very well in
Ghana. The 5,500 USD paid was my own money.
I didn’t ask anyone for help. (Quarm, Ghanaian
migrant in Algeria)
I used my entire savings. Now the business has col-
lapsed. I don’t know how I am going to start again
when I finally return to Nigeria. It’s a dangerous thing
I did. I pray nobody finds [themselves] in this situa-
tion. (Jude, Nigerian migrant in Benghazi, Libya)
My brother assisted me to pay for my travel. He gave
me 1,000 cedis equivalent to 171.09 USD]. At the
community level, I can only mention my friend’s
support to get to Libya. (Kofi, Ghanaian migrant in
Benghazi, Libya)
My decision to travel to Libya was influenced by a
friend. He had a brother in Libya who had invited him
to join him in Libya. When he told me, and consid-
ering that things were difficult in Accra, I decided to
join him. I informed my older brother who supported
me financially to embark on the journey. My parents
never approved of this, so we decided not to inform
them. (Kyeremeh, Ghanaian migrant in Sirte, Libya)
For many migrants, the long journey to Europe, by road
and sea, is fraught with risks and life-threatening circum-
stances. The journey usually consists of three stages: a
desert crossing to the Maghreb to the Libyan border;
heading from the border into the northern coastal towns
within Libya; and a boat trip across the Mediterranean
Sea to Italy. The migrants usually give a large amount of
money to traffickers at all phases of the journey to allow
them to reach their destinations. Some of the migrants
were adequately prepared, while some were less pre-
pared for eventualities. This is captured in the follow-
ing testimonies:
I took a loan from the bank [3,000 USD] and sold my
barbing shop for 2,500 USD in addition to my savings
[1,500 USD], altogether 7,000 USD, to facilitate my
travel to Spain. As we speak, I am still sending money
home to settle the bank loan I took. (Yaw, Ghanaian
migrant in Huelva, Spain)
Because of previous experience, I knew my way out
and what to expect in the desert, so I planned very
well for it, had all my food, hid my money on me
because you could easily meet bandits on the way
and they would take everything from you. I also
arranged to pay the bandits or soldiers we met on the
way. (Kyeremeh, Ghanaian migrant in Sirte, Libya)
I did not know a lot of things there, so I didn’t make
proper arrangements for eventualities. While in Niger,
we were attacked by some robbers and they took
everything from us. I nearly stopped travelling to
Libya. I had to call my wife to send some money to
pay for my transportation to Libya. (Martin, Nigerian
migrant in Sirte, Libya)
These testimonies reveal that individuals’ savings, sup-
port from household members and bank loans strength-
ened the migrants’ capability to travel amidst uncertain-
ties. While financial remittances were also an important
factor, the past experiences, connections with ‘travel
agents’ and the availability of professional smugglers in
transit routes thus bolstered irregular migrants’ capabil-
ity to travel.
Social Inclusion, 2021, Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 216–225 221
5.3. Sourcing Information
The objective of investigating the sources of information
at migrants’ disposal, is to ascertain how information
influences the decision to migrate. Hence, informants
were questioned about the knowledge or impressions
of their destination countries, the proposed route, and
information about transit/destination countries. This
also included information about their household/family
members and friends, resident in Europe. Respondents
indicated that the existence of social media and
other social networks including WhatsApp, Facebook,
Instagram, Twitter, migrants’ connection and relatives
abroad and other technologies facilitated the sharing of
opinions. Information shared through the building of vir-
tual networks and communities aided migrants’ decision-
making. Accordingly, technologies provided them with
quick means to communicate with family members,
friends and acquaintances. Migrants usually engage with
social media via smartphones, web-based software or
web applications when sourcing information on travel
to Europe. A range of views expressed by respondents
include the following:
Significantly, the network I built with my friend
helped in shaping my life. Some people rely on
Facebook and other social media to get a ‘connec-
tion man’ to support their travel abroad. I did not do
that, thanks to my friend. (Yaw, Ghanaian migrant in
Huelva, Spain)
My relationship with my friend helped a lot in
the sense that he guided me through the decision-
making process, who to contact on the way, and
even at the final destination in Libya. My transit was
fruitful, thanks to my friend. (Kyeremeh, Ghanaian
migrant in Sirte, Libya)
Social media? Look, the ‘burgars’ [i.e., local name
for travellers in Ghana] will usually take pictures in
a very nice environment and sometimes in front of
a beautiful car and share on Facebook. These are
beautiful images of fulfilment you would want to
experience….Any time I see those pictures, I feel like
I am the one there, and that influenced my decision.
(Quarm, Ghanaian migrant in Algeria)
Social media has informed my decision. The only con-
tact person we had in Libya was my friend’s brother.
(Christian, Ghanaian migrant in Benghazi, Libya)
5.4. Expectations and Underlying Prospects
for Migration
To assess the expectations and motivations for migrat-
ing, informants were asked different questions. These
included their knowledge of the destination countries’
opportunities, goals they planned to achieve or problems
they proposed to solve, by migrating to the destination
countries, as well as their possible decision to return.
Well above 80 percent of the respondents identified the
search for survival and greener pastures as the major fac-
tor for millions of youths, including women from parts of
West Africa, to risk possible death in their attempts to
cross the Maghreb and the Mediterranean Sea, en route
to Europe. Such individual decision-making under uncer-
tainty, despite the dangers associated with leaving the
country of origin, is fuelled by the lack of economic and
employment prospects, political turmoil, unfavourable
social relations, peer pressure, misunderstandings, and
the quest for a better future. Such factors have led to
a large proportion of the population looking for alterna-
tives to better livelihoods for themselves and their fam-
ilies (Smith, 2019). Interestingly, most of the migrants
planned to return to their countries of origin. The follow-
ing comments reflect some of these perspectives:
Job opportunities! I still have that image today—
I believe there are opportunities in Europe. Due to
the work prospect, I paid a huge amount to the agent.
I was convinced that once I reached Italy I would be
able to make it in, multiple times. (Quarm, Ghanaian
migrant in Algeria)
The fact that there are jobs for people in the construc-
tion sector, influenced my decision. I was not worried
about the dangers—my interest was in job opportu-
nities. (James, Nigerian migrant in Tripoli, Libya)
I knew Niger is a transit country for most Africans
travelling to Libya. The fact that there will be a lot
of people coming here to start their journey influ-
enced my decision to come back to start my business.
Because, once people transit through here, I believe
they would need some items to take along. (Fred,
Nigerian migrant in Misrata, Libya)
Some of the responses on return migration include:
Oh yes! I will go back one day to Ghana. We need to
go back to show that at least we have also made it in
life. (Yaw, Ghanaian migrant in Huelva, Spain)
Yes, I want to set up my own business in Ghana, so
I would like to go back when I made enough money.
(Kyeremeh, Ghanaian migrant in Sirte, Libya)
To Nigeria? Not now, my brother! Maybe in the future
when I feel that I have made enough [money]. But to
go back to Nigeria this time, ah ah. (James, Nigerian
migrant in Tripoli, Libya)
There is no going back for me. I have suffered a lot
there! It is better here for me than to go back to the
stress in The Gambia. (Muhammed, Gambian migrant
in Tripoli, Libya)
Social Inclusion, 2021, Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 216–225 222
The above empirical evidence clearly shows that
migrants’ decision-making under uncertainty to cross the
Mediterranean Sea to Europe is based on expectations of
escaping poverty, and hopes of a better life. Accordingly,
the journeys undertaken by large numbers of migrants
from West Africa to Europe usually take place by boat,
across the Mediterranean Sea. On these long journeys
to Europe, most migrants are at risk of serious injury,
human rights abuses, or even death, during these per-
ilous trips of desperation. The fragility of the Sahel states
also heightens uncertainty due to conflict or militant
insurgency and militarisation of migrants routes by local
and foreign-backed mercenaries most especially in Libya
and Niger. The growing insecurity and political instability
have contributed to the lack of opportunities for young
African populations. This brings to light how such con-
ditions create the means for traffickers and smugglers
of migrants to operate along viable transit routes in the
Sahara, the Maghreb and through the Mediterranean.
Consequently, the need to migrate significantly explains
the sustained movement of Africa’s youths through the
Sahara despite the inherent dangers.
6. Conclusion
The foregoing illustrates that socio-economic inequity,
most especially the lack of opportunities and expec-
tations of a better life underlies decision-making in
uncertainty among African migrants. This phenomenon
echoes Smith’s (2019) postulation that limited access
to opportunities, poverty, inequality and unemploy-
ment amidst precarious development challenges and
youth population bulge, exacerbate Africa’s migration
crisis. The empirical evidence provided by West African
migrants to the Maghreb (Libya and Morocco) and
Europe, further underpinned by the Decision-making
and Network Theories, reveal that factors external to
migrants, the ability (resources) to migrate, sources of
information/networks, and the prospects/expectations
of a migrant are among the crucial social, cultural,
economic and political dynamics that uniquely mix to
influence every migrant’s decision-making process dif-
ferentially. The external factors impacting on migrants
include customs/beliefs; family; the migrant’s society—
the ‘push’ factors—and the characteristics of the desti-
nation country—the ‘pull’ factors (Dinbabo & Badewa,
2020; Dinbabo & Nyasulu, 2015). The migrant’s ability
factors may include financial capacity; household sup-
port, including remittances; ability to take risks; plans for
eventualities; and resilience against unforeseen circum-
stances particularly in transit or destination countries.
This also encompasses families’ support, communication
and concerns for migrants’ wellbeing towards risk reduc-
tion and cost maximisation (Pate-Cornell & Dillon, 2006).
Moreover, sourcing information (about the transit
routes, destination and means of travel) may be influ-
enced by social media, and social networks, including
family, friends, returnees, and professional migration
agents. Finally, expectations or motivations of migrat-
ing may be shaped by the impressions of a destina-
tion country and the opportunities it provides, the role
of transit countries, the impact on return migration
and accomplishing (the migrant’s) goals. Hence, individ-
uals’ judgement to decide on potential migration des-
tinations varies according to diverse information, sup-
port systems and prospects for opportunities (Baláž
et al., 2016). In other words, a migrant’s reflection of
his larger socio-cultural, political and economic environ-
ments influence his priorities and values, choices of set-
tlements and prospects for return (Achenbach, 2017).
The above level-based analysis of migration decision-
making under uncertainty incorporates the micro-level,
macro-level and meso-level factors of migration deci-
sions, underscored by the combination of both network
theory and decision-making theory.
The study acknowledges that Africa’s chaotic migra-
tion policy environment, coupled with regional secu-
rity threats in the Sahel-Maghreb corridor and the
European Union external borders policy, exacerbate
irregular migration practices across the Mediterranean
Sea to Europe. Nevertheless, the phenomenon can-
not be checked without the proper understanding of
its underlying factors and political-economy. This is
because prominent individuals, traditional authorities,
state security agents and private enterprises, particu-
larly banks, migrant smugglers, transporters and shel-
ter providers are involved. Therefore, the transforma-
tion of irregular migration routes and the entire region
into a Special Economic Zone, tourism and educa-
tional hub can change the narratives and thus address
the region’s growing human security challenges and
youth disempowerment. Indeed, critical stakeholder
engagement towards addressing poverty and inequal-
ity, regional insecurity and migration crisis should be
entrenched in the region. These may be mediated among
national migration governing agencies, NGOs and civil
societies and intergovernmental organisations—e.g., the
African Union, ECOWAS and the European Union—as
well as relevant UN agencies on migration, refugees
and development—e.g., the IOM, the UNHCR and the
United Nations Development Programme. The above-
mentioned capacity-building will promote intra-regional
mobility such as (seasonal) labour migration, cross-
border trade, mixed migration and remittances for devel-
opment in the spirit of the African Continental Free Trade
Area, and enhance the implementation of the African
Union’s Agenda 2063 and its Migration Policy Framework
for Africa.
Acknowledgments
We gratefully acknowledge the efforts of respondents
who took valuable time away from their day to partici-
pate in the research. Without them this empirical study
would not have been possible.
Social Inclusion, 2021, Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 216–225 223
Conflict of Interests
The authors declare no conflict of interests.
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About the Authors
Mulugeta F. Dinbabo (Professor) obtained his Doctoral Degree in Development Studies. His research
interest includes migration and development, diaspora studies, migration policies and remittances.
He has built a strong research ethic and published extensively in local and international peer-reviewed
journals. Professor Dinbabo is the Chief Editor of the African Human Mobility Review (AHMR), an
accredited journal by the South African Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET).
Social Inclusion, 2021, Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 216–225 224
Adeyemi Badewa (PhD) obtained his Doctoral Degree in Development Studies from the University of
the Western Cape and a Master Degree in History and Strategic Studies in Lagos. He previously taught
course on international relations and comparative governance at the Department of Political Studies,
University of the Western Cape. He specialises in human security, regional development and multilat-
eral governance, with interest spanning the fields of international relations, development, migration,
and peace and conflicts studies.
Collins Yeboah holds a double Master degree in Development Management from Ruhr University,
Bochum, Germany, and in Development Studies, University of the Western Cape, South Africa.
He earned his Bachelor of Arts (BA) degree in Geography and Resource Development with Sociology
from the University of Ghana. He is currently pursuing his PhD in Development Studies at the University
of the Western Cape, South Africa. His interests are in migration, remittances and poverty reduction
strategies.
Social Inclusion, 2021, Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 216–225 225
