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ÇEVRESEL KUZNETS EĞRİSİ HİPOTEZİNİN TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE GEÇERLİLİĞİNİN AMPİRİK ANALİZİ
Abstract
Gelişme sürecinde ekonomilerin çevre üzerindeki etkileri, özellikle 20. ve 21. yüzyılda yaşanan çevresel sorun ve felaketler ile yoğun tartışmaların yaşandığı bir alan haline gelmiştir. Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezi ise çevresel kirlenme ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin yorumlanmasında sıklıkla kullanılan yöntemler arasındadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisi için Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezinin geçerliliği araştırılmaktadır. 1960 – 2015 dönemi yıllık veri seti ile karbondioksit emisyonu, gelir ve enerji tüketimi değişkenleri ARDL eşbütünleşme testi yardımıyla analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, uzun dönemde Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezinin öngördüğü şekilde bir ilişki Türkiye ekonomisi için geçerli değildir. Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi hipotezi, tersine "U" şeklinde bir ilişki öngörmektedir. Bu, gelir artışının çevre kirliliği üzerinde pozitif (artış) ve ardından negatif (azalış) etkiye sahip olacağı anlamına gelmektedir. Türkiye ekonomisi için “N” şeklinde bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Enerji tüketiminin ise karbondioksit emisyonunu uzun dönemde pozitif etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Türkiye’nin enerji portföyünün ilgili sonuçlardaki rolü de değerlendirilmektedir.
... These studies are seen to have investigated the validity of the inverse-U relationship using the variables of CO 2 emissions, per capita income, and the per capita income squared. Another model for the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve involves studies that have investigated the validity of the cubic form (Şahinöz & Fotourehchi, 2013;Allard et al., 2018;Manga & Cengiz, 2020;Özdemir & Koç, 2020;Güzel, 2021). ...
... Söz konusu çalışmalarda CO 2 emisyonu ve kişi başına düşen milli gelir ve kişi başına düşen milli gelirin karesi değişkenleri kullanılarak (karesel form) ters-U ilişkisinin geçerliliğinin araştırıldığı görülmüştür. Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisinin geçerliliği ile ilgili bir diğer model ise kübik formun geçerliliğinin araştırıldığı çalışmalardır (Şahinöz ve Fotourehchi, 2013;Allard, Takman, Uddin ve Ahmed, 2018;Manga ve Cengiz, 2020;Özdemir ve Koç, 2020;Güzel, 2021). Söz konusu çalışmalarda ise karesel forma ek olarak modele kişi başına düşen mili gelirin küpü değişkeni eklenerek model sınanmakta ve N formunun geçerliliği araştırılmaktadır. ...
... Şekil 3'e bakıldığında EKC hipotezinin ilk üç dönemi (1971)(1972)(1973)(1974)(1975)(1976)(1977)(1978)(1979) kapsayan hareketinin N şeklinde olduğu görülmektedir. Bu tarzda bir hareketlenme, Grossman ve Krueger (1991), Moomaw ve Unruh (1997), Torras ve Boyce (1998), Barrett ve Graddy (2000), Arı ve Zeren (2011) ve Güzel (2021)'in çalışmalarında ulaştığı sonuçlar arasındadır. N şeklindeki hareketlenmeyi 1973 kırılma tarihine kadar ve sonrası döneme kadar şeklinde ayıracak olursak bu defa 1973'e kadar ters-U şeklinde, 1973-1979 dönemlerinde ise U şeklinde hareketlenmenin gerçekleştiğini de ifade edebiliriz. ...
Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de sürdürülebilir bir çevre ile ilgili neler yapılacağını görebilmek için Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (EKC) hipotezinin geçmiş yıllardaki hareketleri dönemsel olarak incelenmiştir. Analiz 1970-2022 zaman aralığını kapsamaktadır. Bu kapsamda yapısal kırılmalı en küçük kareler yöntemi kullanılarak Türkiye de GDP ve CO2 emisyonlarını etkileyen 15 kritik döneme bakılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda elde edilen en önemli bulgu EKC hipotezi bir zaman aralığında U, ters-U, N gibi tek bir şekille sabit kalmayıp dönemsel olarak tüm bu grafikleri aynı anda çizebildiği yönündedir. Buna ilaveten M şeklinde grafiğin de Türkiye ekonomisinde geçerli olduğu çalışmada ulaşılan bulgular arasındadır. Yapılan analizlerde üretimle birlikte çevreye daha az CO2 emisyonu salgılanmasının, maliyetleri düşürme, kaynak bulunmasını kolaylaştırma ve üretimde çevre kirliliğini önlemeye yönelik teknolojik gelişmeleri sağlamanın yanı sıra buna ilaveten çevre kirliliğini önlemeye yönelik çevre sözleşmelerine taraf olmak vb. unsurlara bağlı olduğu da çalışmada ulaşılan sonuçlar arasında yer almaktadır. Çalışma Türkiye örnekleminde yapılan zaman serisi analizlerine kıyasla EKC hipotezinin 15 kritik tarihi kapsayan kırılmalı test ile dönemsel olarak incelenmesi bakımından benzeri bir çalışmaya rastlanılmaması nedeniyle ilk özelliği taşıdığı düşünülmektedir.
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisi için 1965-2021 yılları arasında Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi’nin geçerliliği, kişi başına düşen GSYİH ve CO2 emisyonu değişkenleri kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmada kullanılan değişkenlerin durağanlığı; geleneksel ADF, KPSS ve PP testleriyle ve Fourier temelli Fourier-KSS, Fourier-Sollis ve Fourier-Kruse testleriyle incelenmektedir. GSYİH ve CO2 emisyonu arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkisi üçüncü dereceden polinom fonksiyonu kullanılarak Fourier temelli Tsong (Fourier-Shin) eşbütünleşme testiyle incelenmiştir. Ampirik analizler, GSYİH ve CO2 emisyonunun birinci fark durağan olduğunu ve değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Dinamik En Küçük Kareler yöntemiyle elde edilen uzun dönem modelinin katsayıları, GSYİH ile CO2 emisyonu arasında ters N biçiminde bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir.
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de karbondioksit emisyonu, yenilenebilir ve yenilenemez enerji tüketimi, ekonomik büyüme, reel tarımsal katma değer, doğrudan yabancı sermaye girişi ve finansal gelişme arasındaki ilişki 1974-2019 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Durağanlık sınaması için geleneksel ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller) ve PP (Phillips Peron) birim kök testi, eş bütünleşme ilişkisi için ARDL sınır testi tercih edilmiştir. ADF ve PP birim kök testi bulgularına göre doğrudan yabancı sermaye girişi hariç tüm değişkenler %1 anlamlılık düzeyinde birinci mertebede durağandır. ARDL bulgularına göre gerek kısa gerekse de uzun dönemde reel GSYH ve yenilenemez enerji tüketiminin karbondioksit emisyonunu artırdığı, reel GSYH’nin karesi ve yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin ise karbondioksit emisyonunu azalttığı tespit edilmiştir. Dolayısıyla incelenen dönemde Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezi geçerlidir.
This study examines the relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth, and ecological footprint for the top 14 Russian-energy-importing countries in 2000–2018. Through PVAR analysis, this study calculates the long-term correlation between variables using a VEC model. The VAR approach addresses the endogeneity issue by including endogenous interactions between the variables in the model. Additionally, the impulse response functions and the influence of various variables on certain lags are evaluated. Cointegration between variables was assessed using DOLS and FMOLS panel analysis to investigate the long-term link further. Our findings demonstrate that there is a cointegration relationship between all series. According to the impulse response analysis results, an energy shock from Russia will negatively affect the countries' economic growth and decrease the ecological footprint. Increasing renewable and non-renewable energy consumption domestically increases ecological footprint, but the effect of renewable energy consumption on ecological footprint seems to be less. According to DOLS findings, a 10 percent increase in Russian fuel exports increases the elasticity of economic growth by 0.61%. In contrast, FMOLS findings indicate that a 10% increase in Russian fuel export increases the elasticity of economic growth by 1%. However, the direction of the relationship is positive when the ecological footprint is considered the dependent variable: While the non-renewable energy consumption elasticity coefficient was 0.030 in the DOLS model, it was found to be 0.023 in the FMOLS model. The elasticity value of the economic growth variable was found to be 0.69 in the FMOLS model.
The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between economic growth and environ-mental pollution by testing the data of 37 OECD countries with the Environmental Kuznets Curve(ÇKE) hypothesis. The relationship between energy consumption, per capita real gross domes-tic product (GDP), per capita real GDP squared, urbanization rate, trade liberalization and CO 2emissions in the period of 1990-2015 in OECD countries were analyzed with the EKC hypothesis.The EKC hypothesis accepts that there is an inverted-U-shaped relationship between per capitaincome and environmental damage. As a result of the analysis; The coefficient of energy con-sumption was found to be positive and statistically significant. While energy consumption has apositive effect on carbon emissions in general, the increase in trade liberalization has increasedcarbon emissions in some countries and decreased carbon emissions in others. While theincrease in the rate of urbanization reduces carbon emissions in some countries, it has a positiveeffect in some countries. It has been observed that the openness index has a negative effect oncarbon emissions in general. As a result of the study, the EKC hypothesis was found to be valid in14 countries, and it was concluded that the EKC hypothesis was not valid in 23 countries
(PDF) The Validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis on Green Economy Indicators of OECD Countries. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/367356583_The_Validity_of_the_Environmental_Kuznets_Curve_Hypothesis_on_Green_Economy_Indicators_of_OECD_Countries [accessed Jan 24 2023].
In this study, the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is investigated with annual data for the period 1990-2019 for Turkey. For this, carbon dioxide emission, per capita income, renewable energy use, and energy loss data, and the EKC hypothesis are investigated. For this purpose, unit roots tests, which take into account structural breaks, were used. Then, Gregory-Hansen (1996) cointegration test was applied. The long-short-term relationship between the variables was tested with Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) and Canonical Co-integrated Regression (CCR) estimators. The findings show that the EKC hypothesis is valid for Turkey in the short-long term. In addition, it has been concluded that the increase in energy losses and the use of renewable energy reduces environmental pollution.
Bu çalışmada Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezi’nin Türkiye’de 1967-2015 yılları arasında geçerliliği fourier temelli analizlerle test edilmiştir. Veri seti olarak ekonomik büyümeyi temsilen reel gayri safi yurt içi hasıla, çevresel bozulmayı temsilen karbon emisyonu değerleri kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre ekonomik büyüme ve çevresel bozulma ilişkisinin ters U formunda olduğu Türkiye’de Kuznetz Eğrisi hipotezinin geçerli olduğu kanıtlanmıştır.
Bu Çalışma, Türkiye’nin 1971-2014 dönemi için Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi
(ÇKE)’nin enerji kullanımı, kentsel nüfus, kişi başına düşen GSYİH, CO2 emisyonu
değişkenleri ile geçerliliğini incelemektedir. Çalışmada yöntem olarak, Gecikmesi
Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Model (ARDL) kullanılmıştır. ÇKE hipotezinin geçerliliğini
inceleyen ve dönüm noktasını belirleyen bir diğer yöntem, Utest’i de kullanılmıştır.
Ayrıca, değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin incelenmesi için Toda Yamamoto
ve Fourier Toda Yamamoto nedensellik testi uygulanmış ve iki nedensellik testi sonuçları
karşılaştırılmıştır. Çalışmada, değişkenlerin durağanlığını birim kök testleri; ADF, Fourier ADF, KPSS, Fourier KPSS, Phillips ve Perron (PP) ve yapısal tek kırılmalı birim kök testi;
Perron (1989) ve Zivot-Andrew (1992) testleri ile test edilmiştir. Birim kök ve yapısal
kırılmalı birim kök testlerinin ortak sonucu olarak, GSYİH, GSYİH karesi, CO2 emisyonu
birinci farkında durağan I(1), kentsel nufus değişkeni ve enerji kullanımı düzeyde
durağan I(0)’dır. Çalışmada, ARDL sınır testine göre değişkenler arasında eş-bütünleşme
bulunmaktadır. Uzun dönem ARDL katsayılarından elde edilen sonuçlara göre Türkiye‘de Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi hipotezinin geçerli olduğununu yani; GSYİH ile CO2 emisyonu değişkenleri arasında ters U şeklinde bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Bu ilişki Utest’i ile de kanıtlanmış ve dönüm noktası 12,050$ olarak belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca, GSYİH, enerji
kullanımı, kentsel nufus değişkenlerinin CO2 emisyonu üzerinde pozitif etkiye sahip
olduğu tespit edilmiştir. TY nedensellik testi sonucuna göre, değişkenler arasında anlamlı
bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmasada, Fourier TY nedensellik testinde CO2
emisyonun’dan GSYİH ve enerji kullanımı değişkenlerine doğru tek yönlü bir
nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur.
Gelişen ekonomik yapılarda büyüme odaklı yürütülen ekonomik politikalar birtakım çevresel sorunların yaşanmasına yol açmaktadır. Enerji tüketimi gün geçtikçe artmakta, bu artış beraberinde CO2 emisyonu artışını getirmektedir. Son dönemde büyüme oranlarında ciddi bir yükseliş eğiliminde olan BRICS-T ülkelerinde bu durum daha belirgin bir şekilde kendini göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada BRICS-T ülkelerinde enerji tüketimi, CO2 emisyonu ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki panel analiziyle araştırılmıştır. 1990-2018 yıllarını kapsayan çalışmada yapılan analiz sonucunda kişi başına GSYH ile CO2 emisyonu arasında çift yönlü, kişi başına GSYH’dan kişi başı enerji tüketimine tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin bulunduğu belirlenmiştir.
(Growth-oriented economic policies in developing economies cause some environmental problems. Energy consumption is increasing day by day, and this increase brings with it an increase in CO2 emissions. This situation is in the BRICS-T countries, which have recently seen a severe upward trend in growth rates. In this study, the relationship between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in BRICS-T countries was investigated by panel analysis. As a result of the survey covering the years 1990-2018, it was determined that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions and a one-way causality relationship from GDP per capita to energy consumption per capita.)
The relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth has an important place in the economic literature. In this study, the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is investigated in for the period of 1960-2014 in Turkey. ARDL Bounds Test was used to analyze the cointegration relationship between of variables. The positive correlation between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth and energy consumption has been demonstrated. In this context the conclusion supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis was reached for the period of 1960-2014 in Turkey. As a result, the importance of legislation for renewable energy sources are ighlighted in order to ensure sustainable growth by reducing the environmental pollution in Turkey.
Bu çalışmanın amacı; ekonomik büyüme ile çevre arasındaki
ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu amaçla, Çevresel Kuznets
Eğrisi hipotezinin (ÇKE) 1960-2011 dönemi için
Türkiye’de geçerliliği test edilmiştir. Ekonomik büyüme
göstergesi olarak Kişi Başına Düşen Milli Gelir, çevre
kirliliği göstergesi olarak da Kişi Başına Karbondioksit
(CO2) emisyonu kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca kontrol değişkeni
olarak da ticari dışa açıklık oranı modele dahil edilmiştir.
ARDL (The Autoregressive Distributed Lag) modeli
ile elde edilen bulgular şöyle sıralanabilir: i) Kuadratik
model için elde edilen uzun dönemli katsayılara göre,
kişi başına gelir ile çevre kirliliği arasında ters U şeklinde
bir ilişkinin mevcut olduğu görülmektedir. Bu sonuç
ÇKE hipotezinin 1960-2011 döneminde Türkiye’de
geçerli olduğunu desteklemektedir. ii) Kubik model için
elde edilen uzun dönemli katsayılara göre, gelir ile çevre
kirliliği arasında N şeklinde bir ilişki mevcuttur.
We evaluate the N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) using panel quantile regression analysis. We investigate the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP per capita for 74 countries over the period of 1994–2012. We include additional explanatory variables, such as renewable energy consumption, technological development, trade, and institutional quality. We find evidence for the N-shaped EKC in all income groups, except for the upper-middle-income countries. Heterogeneous characteristics are, however, observed over the N-shaped EKC. Finally, we find a negative relationship between renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions, which highlights the importance of promoting greener energy in order to combat global warming.
This study examines the potential of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in reducing the impact of carbon emission in Malaysia and the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, which leads to global warming. Using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, this study analyses the impact of electricity generated using RES on the environment and trade openness for the period 1980-2009. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach the results show that the elasticities of electricity production from renewable sources with respect to CO 2 emissions are negative and significant in both the short and long-run. This implies the potential of renewable energy in controlling CO 2 emissions in both short and long-run in Malaysia. Renewable energy can ensure sustainability of electricity supply and at the same time can reduce CO 2 emissions. Trade openness has a significant negative effect on CO 2 emissions in the long-run. The Granger causality test based on Vector Error Correction Mode (VECM) indicates that there is an evidence of positive bi-directional Granger causality relationship between economic growth and CO 2 emissions in the short and long-run suggesting that carbon emissions and economic growth are interrelated to each other. Furthermore, there is a negative long-run bi-directional Granger causality relationship between electricity production from renewable sources and CO 2 emissions. The short-run Granger causality shows a negative uni-directional causality for electricity production from renewable sources to CO 2 emissions. This result suggests that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between CO 2 emissions and economic growth.
Bu çalışmada, çevresel bozulma ve gelir seviyesi arasında ters-U şeklinde bir ilişki bulunduğunu varsayan Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (ÇKE) hipotezinin 1975-2010 döneminde Türkiye ekonomisi için geçerliliği araştırılmaktadır. Bu amaçla, gelir seviyesi ile çevresel bozulmayı ifade eden karbondioksit (CO2) değişkenleri arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki ARDL Sınır Testi ile incelenmiş ve değişkenler arasındaki nedenselliğin belirlenmesi için Toda-Yamamoto (1995) Granger nedenselliği testinden yararlanılmıştır. Elde edilen ekonometrik sonuçlara göre, ÇKE hipotezinin uzun dönemde Türkiye ekonomisi için geçerli olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Değişkenler arasında ters-N şeklinde bir ilişki bulunmuş, fakat elde edilen katsayıların istatistiki olarak anlamlı olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Diğer yandan, Toda-Yamamoto (1995) Nedensellik Testi sonuçlarına göre gelir seviyesinden CO2 emisyonuna doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur.
This study investigates the causal relations between ,tourism growth and economic growth in Turkey over the 1992:Q1-2004:Q4 period. In this study, in addition to the conventional unit root test( Augmented Dickey-Fuller), Zivot and Andrews’s(1992)unit root test is employed,to find out whether there is a structural break or not. Results of Zivot and Andrews test show,that Gross Domestic Product and tourism ,variables are trend stationary on the ,contrary Augmented ,Dickey- Fuller test. According ,to Standart ,Granger ,causality test results and ,Toda- Yamamoto(1995) approach, there is not causality relation between tourism receipts and economic,growth. Keywords: Tourism receipts, Economic Growth, Structural break, Causality.
Let n observations Y 1, Y 2, ···, Y n be generated by the model Y t = pY t−1 + e t , where Y 0 is a fixed constant and {e t } t-1 n is a sequence of independent normal random variables with mean 0 and variance σ2. Properties of the regression estimator of p are obtained under the assumption that p = ±1. Representations for the limit distributions of the estimator of p and of the regression t test are derived. The estimator of p and the regression t test furnish methods of testing the hypothesis that p = 1.
In response to the growing body of literature on the relationship between the environment and institutions, this study investigates how the rule of law influences the turning point of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Using Bradford et al.'s (2005) and Leitão's (2010) alternative specification of the EKC that avoids non-linear transformation of potentially non-stationary regressors, we find evidence for the EKC in European countries for carbon emissions. Our results show a negative relationship between pollution and the rule of law, demonstrating that when the rule of law is strong, the turning point of the EKC occurs at a lower level of per capita income, thus, enhancing environmental preservation. Since the rule of law provides a composite institutional framework, we argue that the solution to environmental degradation can be sought not only through institutional reforms, but also through the allocation of additional resources to provide an adequate regulatory context in which this institution is enforced.
While Bangladesh remains steeped in staggering external debt, it is also concurrently witnessing a substantial outflow of domestic capital. This situation raises serious policy concerns for its development prospects. This paper applies the Bounds testing and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag procedures to confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between capital flight and its determinants, and to estimate the long-run and short-run behavior of capital flight from Bangladesh. The estimated results suggest that political instability is the single most significant cause of capital flight from Bangladesh, while increases in corporate income taxes, higher real interest rate differentials between the capital-haven countries and Bangladesh, and lower GDP growth rates also significantly contribute to capital flight.
The saving and investment nexus as postulated by Feldstein and Horioka (FH) (19806.
Feldstein , MS and
Horioka , CY . 1980. Domestic saving and investment capital flows. Economic Journal, 90: 314–29. [CrossRef], [Web of Science ®]View all references) is revisited. The saving investment correlation for China is estimated over the periods 1952–1998 and 1952–1994, the latter culminating in a period of fixed exchange rate regime. Amongst the key results, it is found that saving and investment are correlated for China for both the period of the fixed exchange rate and the entire sample period. With high saving-investment correlation, the results suggest that the Chinese economy is in conformity with the FH hypothesis. This is a valid outcome, for in China capital mobility was fairly restricted over the 1952–1994 period as indicated by the relatively low foreign direct investment.
This paper investigates the causal relationship between futures and spot prices in the freight futures market. Being a thinly traded market whose underlying asset is a service, sets it apart from other markets investigated so far in the literature. Causality tests, generalised impulse response analysis and forecasting performance evaluation indicate that futures prices tend to discover new information more rapidly than spot prices. Revisions in the composition of the underlying index to make it more homogeneous, have strengthened the price discovery role of futures prices. The information incorporated in futures prices, when formulated as a VECM, produces more accurate forecasts of spot prices than the VAR, ARIMA and random-walk models, over several steps ahead. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003
[eng] Transportation costs and monopoly location in presence of regional disparities. . This article aims at analysing the impact of the level of transportation costs on the location choice of a monopolist. We consider two asymmetric regions. The heterogeneity of space lies in both regional incomes and population sizes: the first region is endowed with wide income spreads allocated among few consumers whereas the second one is highly populated however not as wealthy. Among the results, we show that a low transportation costs induces the firm to exploit size effects through locating in the most populated region. Moreover, a small transport cost decrease may induce a net welfare loss, thus allowing for regional development policies which do not rely on inter-regional transportation infrastructures. cost decrease may induce a net welfare loss, thus allowing for regional development policies which do not rely on inter-regional transportation infrastructures. [fre] Cet article d�veloppe une statique comparative de l'impact de diff�rents sc�narios d'investissement (projet d'infrastructure conduisant � une baisse mod�r�e ou � une forte baisse du co�t de transport inter-r�gional) sur le choix de localisation d'une entreprise en situation de monopole, au sein d'un espace int�gr� compos� de deux r�gions aux populations et revenus h�t�rog�nes. La premi�re r�gion, faiblement peupl�e, pr�sente de fortes disparit�s de revenus, tandis que la seconde, plus homog�ne en termes de revenu, repr�sente un march� potentiel plus �tendu. On montre que l'h�t�rog�n�it� des revenus constitue la force dominante du mod�le lorsque le sc�nario d'investissement privil�gi� par les politiques publiques conduit � des gains substantiels du point de vue du co�t de transport entre les deux r�gions. L'effet de richesse, lorsqu'il est associ� � une forte disparit� des revenus, n'incite pas l'entreprise � exploiter son pouvoir de march� au d�triment de la r�gion l
Several recent studies have identified inverted-U relationships between pollution and economic development. We investigate this question using a cross-national panel of data on emissions of four important air pollutants: suspended particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon monoxide. We find that per capita emissions of all four pollutants exhibit inverted-U relationships with per capita GDP. While this suggests that emissions will decrease in the very long run, we forecast continued rapid growth in global emissions over the next several decades.
This paper proposes new tests for detecting the presence of a unit root in quite general time series models. Our approach
is nonparametric with respect to nuisance parameters and thereby allows for a very wide class of weakly dependent and possibly
heterogeneously distributed data. The tests accommodate models with a fitted drift and a time trend so that they may be used
to discriminate between unit root nonstationarity and stationarity about a deterministic trend. The limiting distributions
of the statistics are obtained under both the unit root null and a sequence of local alternatives. The latter noncentral distribution
theory yields local asymptotic power functions for the tests and facilitates comparisons with alternative procedures due to
Dickey & Fuller. Simulations are reported on the performance of the new tests in finite samples.
Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) analysis links changes in environmental quality to national economic growth. The reduced form models, however, do not provide insight into the underlying processes that generate these changes. We compare EKC models to structural transition models of per capita CO2 emissions and per capita GDP, and find that, for the 16 countries which have undergone such a transition, the initiation of the transition correlates not with income levels but with historic events related to the oil price shocks of the 1970s and the policies that followed them. In contrast to previous EKC studies of CO2 the transition away from positive emissions elasticities for these 16 countries is found to occur as a sudden, discontinuous transition rather than as a gradual change. We also demonstrate that the third order polynomial 'N' dependence of emissions on income is the result of data aggregation. We conclude that neither the 'U'- nor the 'N'-shaped relationship between CO2 emissions and income provide a reliable indication of future behaviour.
This paper considers a revisited Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis with potential impact of renewable energy consumption on environmental quality. To this end, paper aims at investigating the validity of the EKC hypothesis employing the dependent variable of CO2 emissions and regressors of GDP, quadratic GDP and renewable energy consumption. This paper, hence, analyzes this revisited EKC hypothesis to observe if (i) there exists an inverted-U shaped relationship between environmental quality (in terms of CO2 emissions), per capita income and per capita income squared and (ii) there exists a negative causality from renewables to CO2 emissions within EKC model.
Paper employs a panel data set of 17 OECD countries over the period 1977–2010 and launches panel FMOLS and panel DOLS estimations. The findings support the EKC hypothesis for the panel and indicate that GDP per capita and GDP per capita squared have the impacts on CO2 emissions positively and negatively, respectively, and that renewable energy consumption yields negative impact on CO2 emissions. Another remark of this paper is that the validity of EKC does not depend on income level of individual countries of panel in which EKC hypothesis holds.
Eventually, paper argues that if countries carry out (i) policies, i.e., for fair and easy access to the electricity from renewable sources and (ii) policies to increase renewables supply through i.e. improved renewable energy technologies, they will be able to contribute to combating global warming problem as they increase their GDP’s.
Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) analysis links changes in environmental quality to national economic growth. The reduced form models, however, do not provide insight into the underlying processes that generate these changes. We compare EKC models to structural transition models of per capita CO2 emissions and per capita GDP, and find that, for the 16 countries which have undergone such a transition, the initiation of the transition correlates not with income levels but with historic events related to the oil price shocks of the 1970s and the policies that followed them. In contrast to previous EKC studies of CO2, the transition away from positive emissions elasticities for these 16 countries is found to occur as a sudden, discontinuous transition rather than as a gradual change. We also demonstrate that the third order polynomial 'N' dependence of emissions on income is the result of data aggregation. We conclude that neither the 'U'- nor the 'N'-shaped relationship between CO2 emissions and income provide a reliable indication of future behaviour.
We examine the reduced-form relationship between per capita income and various environmental indicators. Our study covers
four types of indicators: urban air pollution, the state of the oxygen regime in river basins, fecal contamination of river
basins, and contamination of river basins by heavy metals. We find no evidence that environmental quality deteriorates steadily
with economic growth. Rather, for most indicators, economic growth brings an initial phase of deterioration followed by a
subsequent phase of improvement. The turning points for the different pollutants vary, but in most cases they come before
a country reaches a per capita income of $8000.
COD and SO 2 emissions Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) Openness This paper investigates the relationship in China between trade, growth and emissions using provincial-level data for water (chemical oxygen demand: COD) and air (sulphur dioxide: SO 2). It analyses the period 1990–2007 in three steps. First, the income 'turning point' of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) has been estimated using quadratic log function and obtained a turning point consistent with existing studies. Second, adopting Dean's (2002) simultaneous equations system, the relationships between trade, growth and emissions has been estimated and the results confirm the dominance of scale effects over technique effects. Third, the estimated per capita turning point for EKC is used to split the provincial industrial database into two groups (below and above turning point income) and simultaneous equations are estimated sepa-rately for them. The split sample provided limited support for the trade-induced emissions hypothesis for COD, but not for SO 2. At the provincial level rising incomes via increased levels of international trade were associated with falling COD due to the technique effect, so that rising incomes among the provinces tended to be associated with lower emissions. Stricter environmental regulations are required for growing incomes because they may encourage better production techniques.
This article analyses the role of energy intensity and the relationship between CO2 emissions and primary energy in order to explain the evolution of CO2 emissions by unit of real GDP. It also distinguishes two different meanings of CO2 emissions Kuznets curve hypothesis: the weak and the strong sense. It considers the case of Spain in the period 1972–1997 as an example in which there is not any evidence supporting this hypothesis in either sense.
The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis postulates an inverted-U-shaped relationship between different pollutants and per capita income, i.e., environmental pressure increases up to a certain level as income goes up; after that, it decreases. An EKC actually reveals how a technically specified measurement of environmental quality changes as the fortunes of a country change. A sizeable literature on EKC has grown in recent period. The common point of all the studies is the assertion that the environmental quality deteriorates at the early stages of economic development/growth and subsequently improves at the later stages. In other words, environmental pressure increases faster than income at early stages of development and slows down relative to GDP growth at higher income levels. This paper reviews some theoretical developments and empirical studies dealing with EKC phenomenon. Possible explanations for this EKC are seen in (i) the progress of economic development, from clean agrarian economy to polluting industrial economy to clean service economy; (ii) tendency of people with higher income having higher preference for environmental quality, etc. Evidence of the existence of the EKC has been questioned from several corners. Only some air quality indicators, especially local pollutants, show the evidence of an EKC. However, an EKC is empirically observed, till there is no agreement in the literature on the income level at which environmental degradation starts declining. This paper provides an overview of the EKC literature, background history, conceptual insights, policy and the conceptual and methodological critique.
Improvements in some measures of air and water quality can accompany rising per capita income, as illustrated by the so-called environmental Kuznets curve. For pollution variables which show such a relationship, we hypothesize that a more equitable distribution of power contributes to these outcomes, by enhancing the influence on policy of those who bear the costs of pollution, relative to the influence of those who benefit from pollution-generating activities. An empirical analysis of international variations in seven indicators of air and water quality supports this hypothesis. Literacy, political rights, and civil liberties are found to have particularly strong effects on environmental quality in low-income countries.
This paper examines the dynamic causal relationships between pollutant emissions, energy consumption, and output for France using cointegration and vector error-correction modelling techniques. We argue that these variables are strongly inter-related and therefore their relationship must be examined using an integrated framework. The results provide evidence for the existence of a fairly robust long-run relationship between these variables for the period 1960–2000. The causality results support the argument that economic growth exerts a causal influence on growth of energy use and growth of pollution in the long run. The results also point to a uni-directional causality running from growth of energy use to output growth in the short run.
This article examines the long-run and short-run determinants of migration from Fiji to the United States between 1972 and 2001 using a human capital framework, which is extended to take account of political instability in Fiji. In the long-run the authors find that differences in income levels, disparities in police strength, disparities in the number of doctors, costs of moving, and political instability in Fiji are all statistically significant with the expected sign. In the short run the cost of moving, lagged migration, political instability, and differences in both police strength and medical care are the main determinants of Fiji-United States immigration. "("JEL "C22, F22)" Copyright 2006 Western Economic Association International.
This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known with certainty whether the underlying regressors are trend- or first-difference stationary. The proposed tests are based on standard F- and t-statistics used to test the significance of the lagged levels of the variables in a univariate equilibrium correction mechanism. The asymptotic distributions of these statistics are non-standard under the null hypothesis that there exists no level relationship, irrespective of whether the regressors are I(0) or I(1). Two sets of asymptotic critical values are provided: one when all regressors are purely I(1) and the other if they are all purely I(0). These two sets of critical values provide a band covering all possible classifications of the regressors into purely I(0), purely I(1) or mutually cointegrated. Accordingly, various bounds testing procedures are proposed. It is shown that the proposed tests are consistent, and their asymptotic distribution under the null and suitably defined local alternatives are derived. The empirical relevance of the bounds procedures is demonstrated by a re-examination of the earnings equation included in the UK Treasury macroeconometric model. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
This study is aimed at testing empirically the economic development hypothesis introduced by Simon Kuznets in 1966: that in the course of economic development, income disparities rise in the beginning and then begin to fall. This has been represented in an inverted U-shape relationship known as the Kuznets curve. This study hypothesizes a Kuznets-type relationship between the rate of environmental degradation and the level of economic development. The hypothesis is tested using cross-section data on deforestation and air pollution from a sample of developing and developed countries. After confirming the reality of the Kuznets curve, the implications to policy formulation are then derived for the areas of employment, technology transfer, and development assistance.
In general, a reduction in trade barriers will affect the environment by expanding the scale of economic activity, by altering the composition of economic activity and by initiating a change in the techniques of production. We present empirical evidence to assess the relative magnitudes of these three effects as they apply to further trade liberalization in Mexico. We first use comparable measures of three air pollutants in a cross-section of urban areas located in 42 countries to study the relationship between air quality and economic growth. We find for two pollutants (sulphur dioxide and `smoke') that concentrations increase with per capita GDP at low levels of national income, but decrease with GDP growth at higher levels of income. We then study the determinants of the industry pattern of US imports from Mexico and of value added by Mexico's maquiladora sector. We investigate whether the size of pollution abatement costs in US industry influences the pattern of international trade and investment. Finally, we use the results from a computable general equilibrium model to study the likely compositional effect of a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on pollution in Mexico.
This paper gives a systematic application of maximum likelihood inference concerning cointegration vectors in non-stationary vector valued autoregressive time series models with Gaussian errors, where the model includes a constant term and seasonal dummies. The hypothesis of cointegration is given a simple parametric form in terms of cointegration vectors and their weights. The relation between the constant term and a linear trend in the non-stationary part of the process is discussed and related to the weights. Tests for the presence of cointegration vectors, both with and without a linear trend in the non-stationary part of the process are derived. Then estimates and tests under linear restrictions on the cointegration vectors and their weights are given. The methods are illustrated by data from the Danish and the Finnish economy on the demand for money. Copyright 1990 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd
The relationship between cointegration and error correction models, first suggested by Granger, is here extended and used to develop estimation procedures, tests, and empirical examples. A vector of time series is said to be cointegrated with cointegrating vector a if each element is stationary only after differencing while linear combinations a8xt are themselves stationary. A representation theorem connects the moving average , autoregressive, and error correction representations for cointegrated systems. A simple but asymptotically efficient two-step estimator is proposed and applied. Tests for cointegration are suggested and examined by Monte Carlo simulation. A series of examples are presented. Copyright 1987 by The Econometric Society.
There occurs on some occasions a difficulty in deciding the direction of causality between two related variables and also whether or not feedback is occurring. Testable definitions of causality and feedback are proposed and illustrated by use of simple ...
This paper This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a long-run level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known with certainty whether the underlying regressors are trend- or first-difference stationary. The proposed tests are based on standard F- and t-statistics used to test the significance of the lagged levels of the variables in a first-difference regression. Two sets of asymptotic critical values are provided: one set assuming that all the regressors are I(1) and another set assuming they are all I(0). These two sets of critical values provide a band covering all possible classifications of the regressors into I(0), I(1) or mutually cointegrated. Accordingly, various bounds testing procedures are proposed. The empirical relevance of the bounds procedures is demonstrated by a re-examination of the earnings equation included in the UK Treasury macro-econometric model. This is a particularly relevant application as there is considerable doubt concerning the order of integration of variables such as the unemployment rate, union strength and the wedge between the real product wage' and the real consumption wage' that enter the earnings equation
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