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The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations
Geophysical Research Letters
Abstract
The 2003 heat wave that affected much of Europe from June to September bears a close resemblance to what many regional climate models are projecting for summers in the latter part of the 21st century. Model results suggest that under enhanced atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, summer temperatures are likely to increase by over 4°C on average, with a corresponding increase in the frequency of severe heat waves. Statistical features of the 2003 heat wave for the Swiss site of Basel are investigated and compared to both past, 20th century events and possible future extreme temperatures based on model simulations of climatic change. For many purposes, the 2003 event can be used as an analog of future summers in coming decades in climate impacts and policy studies.
... Vários estudos têm demonstrado uma associação entre o aumento da temperatura média e os episódios de calor extremo, colocando-nos perante cenários de maior evapotranspiração que se reflectirão em maiores e mais intensos períodos de seca, aumento da humidade atmosférica, incremento dos extremos de precipitação e tempestades potencialmente mais energéticas (Easterling et al., 2000;Beniston, 2004;Klein Tank et al., 2005;Fischer e Schär, 2009;Coumou e Rahmstorf, 2012; IPCC AR6 WGI, 2021). ...
... O verão excepcionalmente quente de 2003 causou cerca de 70.000 mortos relacionados com o calor, maioritariamente em países da Europa Ocidental e Central (Beniston, 2004;Trigo et al., 2005), tendo a temperatura média para os meses de verão superado em 3 o C a temperatura média registada para o período 1961-1990(Schär et al., 2004 No contexto do aquecimento global, estes fenómenos extremos de anomalias de temperatura de alta amplitude, podem tornar-se não apenas mais frequentes, mas também mais longos e mais intensos (Easterling et al., 2000;Klein Tank e Können, 2003;Beniston, 2004;Schär et al., 2004;Klein Tank et al., 2005;Della-Marta et al., 2007). ...
... O verão excepcionalmente quente de 2003 causou cerca de 70.000 mortos relacionados com o calor, maioritariamente em países da Europa Ocidental e Central (Beniston, 2004;Trigo et al., 2005), tendo a temperatura média para os meses de verão superado em 3 o C a temperatura média registada para o período 1961-1990(Schär et al., 2004 No contexto do aquecimento global, estes fenómenos extremos de anomalias de temperatura de alta amplitude, podem tornar-se não apenas mais frequentes, mas também mais longos e mais intensos (Easterling et al., 2000;Klein Tank e Können, 2003;Beniston, 2004;Schär et al., 2004;Klein Tank et al., 2005;Della-Marta et al., 2007). ...
[english]
This study aimed to integrate a set of analyses related to the evolution of air temperature, and in particular with the evolution of the nocturnal thermal environment, taking advantage of some high resolution databases (Iberia01, ERA5-Land, ERA5- Heat) covering mainland Portugal (1971-2015), through an approach with a strong spatial component.
[portuguese]
Com este estudo pretendeu-se integrar um conjunto de análises relacionadas com a evolução da temperatura do ar, e em particular com a evolução do ambiente térmico noturno, tirando partido de algumas bases de dados de alta resolução (Iberia01, ERA5-Land, ERA5-Heat) abrangendo o território de Portugal continental (1971-2015), e através de uma abordagem com uma forte componente espacial.
... Moreover, considering the occurrence of larch budmoth outbreaks in the area, most of the other particularly negative anomalies can be tentatively associated with parasite outbreaks (e.g., 1956(e.g., , 1909(e.g., , 1888(e.g., /89, 1884(e.g., , 1880(e.g., , 1841(e.g., , 1838(e.g., , 1830(e.g., , 1821(e.g., , 1753(e.g., /54, 1721 Table 335 3; Cerrato et al., 2019b;Arbellay et al., 2018;Büntgen et al., 2009). Conversely, the 2003 CE was influenced by the meteoclimatic conditions that occurred during that summer (Beniston, 2004;Fink et al., 2004). Despite the coherence shown by the DBI data and temperature time series in this year, denoting the relatively good performance of the DBI data for identifying even meteorological extremes, a sudden increase in the correlation coefficient (Fig. 3b) Previous analysis performed on TRW in the same study area (Cerrato et al., 2018;Coppola et al., 2013Coppola et al., , 2012 reported the reduction in the correlation between tree-ring parameters and climate in the most recent portion of the chronologies. ...
... After the 1980s, the highest anomaly values of the entire series were reported, in accordance with more recent climate dynamic evidence (IPCC, 2018). Indeed, during this last phase, the majority of the positive anomalies are identified (Table 3), and they almost correspond with years that are known for their 445 exceptionally warm temperature across the European Alps (IPCC, 2018;Beniston, 2004;Fink et al., 2004). ...
Ongoing climate change is likely to cause a worldwide temperature increase of 1.5 °C by the mid-century. To contextualize these changes in a long-term context, historical climatological data extending beyond data obtained from instrumental records are needed. This is even more relevant in remote areas characterized by complex climatic influences and where climate sensitivity is pronounced, such as the European Alps. Dendroclimatology has been recognized as a fundamental tool for reconstructing past climate variations because its temporal resolution is higher than that of other proxies. In this study, we present a comprehensive dendroclimatic analysis in which blue intensity (BI) data derived from European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) trees in the Southern Rhaetian Alps were employed. By establishing the relationships between BI patterns in tree rings and climate variables, the possibility of using the obtained data for constructing a high-resolution, long-term climate record is explored. The results showed that BI data from European larch share greater variance with June–August mean temperatures than total ring width measurements. Moreover, the BI performance as a temperature predictor resulted temporal and spatial quite-stationarity and its regression indices are comparable to those obtainable by data from the more expensive wood density method. The results from this analysis will extend the current knowledge on the applicability of using BI data to study European larch, and the reconstruction described herein is the first attempt to determine whether this proxy can be utilized for dendroclimatic aims. Thus BI data represent a new tool for extending our knowledge beyond that obtained from instrumental records and facilitating a more robust evaluation of climate models and future climate scenarios.
... In fact, this negative correlation can be explained by the fact that in some years HWs can be interrupted by cold air masses like cyclones and associated fronts, and northerly advections, which lead to shorter hot extreme events (Miralles et al., 2014). Typically it takes several days to build up an extreme HW due to drought, soil drying and accumulation of heat in the boundary layer and positive feedbacks between lowlevel atmospheric temperatures (Beniston, 2004;Miralles et al., 2014). Third, the increasing trends of HWD90 and HWA90 for the entire period and for the two consecutive sub-periods (1981-1992 and 1993 -2010). ...
... and European (0֯ E-30֯ E) sectors was recently analysed by Sousa (2017) using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (1950, an automatic blocking detection method (Barriopedro et al., 2006) and a novel ridge detection scheme , also disclosing similar increasing trends for the frequency of ridges during summer and blocks in winter. It is important to further mention that many studies have shown that most of the increase in HWs simply follows the mean summer warming over longer period (Beniston, 2004;Della-Marta et al., 2007b), climate models mean warming accounts for almost the whole increase in HWs (Ballester et al., 2010;Della-Marta et al., 2007a;Fischer and Schär, 2010;Lustenberger et al., 2014), as well as there is no clear long-term trend in blocking in many places. ...
Wildfires are uncontrolled and/or unwanted fires that usually occurred in rural areas or/and rural-urban-interface (RUI), and which normally burn forests, agricultural areas, and wildlands that included scrublands and abandoned agricultural areas. The world wildfire-prone regions range from tropical savannahs to boreal forests characterized by factors and conditions required for fire activity (FA). In fact, such activity increases with primary production and when human and environmental factors are gathered at the same place and time. In the last 20 years, wildfires were the 5th costliest and the 6th most frequent type of disaster in the world. In the same period, Europe experienced a high number of fires (NF) and burnt area (BA) mainly concentrated in the Mediterranean basin. This high fire incidence seems to be the result of human activities including land use/ land cover changes, and climate changes observed. The Mediterranean basin characterized by a fire proneness type of climate and vegetation cover has registered 1,832,161 wildfires events that have burnt 17,377,132 ha between 1980 and 2017. In comparison with the other Mediterranean countries, Portugal has a substantially smaller land area but presents 38% of total NF (TNF) and 26% of total BA (TBA) in that period. The spatial-temporal variability of the wildfires in Portugal is very heterogeneous, and mainly driven by human and biophysical factors. The main focus of this thesis is to study this spatial - temporal variability and their drivers. With this objective in mind, it was performed an identification and a thorough characterization of the spatial variability of fire incidence as well as its main drivers, in particular for different fire causes, namely negligent (comprising use of fire and/or accidental fire) and intentional (including structural fire and/or incendiarism) wildfires. The temporal variability analysis was the focus in the large wildfires (LW) and their relationship with extreme weather and climatic conditions, namely heat waves (HW) and droughts. The main spatial results comprises: (i) south-north gradient of spatial distribution of the human caused wildfires, with more significant for intentional wildfires; (ii) human and biophysical drivers’ influence is higher for intentional wildfires, for southern than for northern region and for normalized BA (NBA=BA/region area) than for normalized number of wildfires (NNF=NF/region area); (iii) the leading drivers of NNF are distance to the nearest road (d), population density (pd) and altitude (h) while of NBA are h, d, slope and pd; (iv) h, d, slope and pd influence is higher for intentional wildfires than for negligent wildfires; (v) 83% of LW occurred in the area affected by HW; and, (vi) all LW occurred in area affected by drought. The main result of the temporal analysis indicates that the spatial-temporal distribution of LW is clearly associated with the high/low inter-annual variability of HW/drought. More specific, it is important to highlight: (i) 97% of the total number of LW was active during an HW; (ii) 90% of the total LW days was also HW days; (iii) 82% of the LW had duration completely contained in the duration of an HW; (iv) 83% of LW occurred during a HW; (v) almost all LW (97% to 95%) and corresponding BA (98% to 97%) occurred during drought; and, (vi) the relationship between drought and fire incidence is particularly strong for moderate and severe drought assessed by 3-month SPI, 3- and 6-month SPEI.
These results can be complemented with the author previous studies: (1) north region presents higher FA than southern region mainly promoted by the existence of different types of climate; (2) FA patterns and the ignition date are strongly dependent on many biophysical and human variables; and, (3) BA within RUI doubled from 1990 to 2012.
The main findings of this thesis can be used for forest, landscape and fire management as they allow to: (1) identify the areas in each region where wildfires are most likely to be ignited intentionally and by negligence as well as where the largest BA by these wildfires occur; (2) identify the regions more affected and the months of higher incidence of drought and HWs in recent times; (3) assess the climatic fire hazard/risk since drought and HW monitoring is based on data from the recent past; and, (4) the definition of adaptation and mitigation strategies for the impacts of HW and drought events in the future climate, namely on human health, food production and fire occurrence based on the future projections.
... The definition of heat waves has an impact on this assessment, and other definitions -based on other temperature thresholds or on climatological temperature anomalies, for example -may be used. Even though, the chosen definition is simple, the threshold of 30 • C was used by a number of studies in Switzerland (Beniston, 2004;Beniston and Diaz, 2004) and Europe (Kovats et al., 2004;Hutter et al., 2007;Xu et al., 2016). In addition, we adopted the definition of Kyselỳ (2002) because the minimum length of 3 d on which the temperature must be above 30 • C does not exclude short heat waves. ...
... The definition of heat waves has an impact on this assessment, and other definitions -based on other temperature thresholds or on climatological temperature anomalies, for example -may be used. Even though, the chosen definition is simple, the threshold of 30 • C was used by a number of studies in Switzerland (Beniston, 2004;Beniston and Diaz, 2004) and Europe (Kovats et al., 2004;Hutter et al., 2007;Xu et al., 2016). In addition, we adopted the definition of Kyselỳ (2002) because the minimum length of 3 d on which the temperature must be above 30 • C does not exclude short heat waves. ...
Accelerating glacier melt rates were observed during the last decades. Substantial ice loss occurs particularly during heat waves that are expected to intensify in the future. Because measuring and modelling glacier mass balance on a daily scale remains challenging, short-term mass balance variations, including extreme melt events, are poorly captured. Here, we present a novel approach based on computer-vision techniques for automatically determining daily mass balance variations at the local scale. The approach is based on the automated recognition of colour-taped ablation stakes from camera images and is tested and validated at six stations installed on three Alpine glaciers during the summers of 2019–2022. Our approach produces daily mass balance with an uncertainty of ±0.81 cm w.e. d−1, which is about half of the accuracy obtained from visual readouts. The automatically retrieved daily mass balances at the six sites were compared to average daily mass balances over the last decade derived from seasonal in situ observations to detect and assess extreme melt events. This allows analysing the impact that the summer heat waves which occurred in 2022 had on glacier melt. Our results indicate 23 d with extreme melt, showing a strong correspondence between the heat wave periods and extreme melt events. The combination of below-average winter snowfall and a suite of summer heat waves led to unprecedented glacier mass loss. The Switzerland-wide glacier storage change during the 25 d of heat waves in 2022 is estimated as 1.27 ± 0.10 km3 of water, corresponding to 35 % of the overall glacier mass loss during that summer. The same 25 d of heat waves caused a glacier mass loss that corresponds to 56 % of the average mass loss experienced over the entire melt season during the summers 2010–2020, demonstrating the relevance of heat waves for seasonal melt.
... For the European Alps, Zekollari et al. (2019) showed that glacier volume is expected to reduce by around 50% in 2050 compared to the ice volume in 2017 and by 2/3 to complete disappearance by the end of the 21st century, depending on the future emission scenario. At the same time, the frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological conditions such as droughts and heatwaves are projected to increase in a warming climate (e.g., Beniston et al., 2007;Gobiet et al., 2014;Kundzewicz et al., 2006;Van der Wiel et al., 2021) and current extremes are sometimes presented as a precursor of future events (e.g., Beniston, 2004;Samaniego et al., 2018). How these two processes, future retreating glaciers and extreme droughts, will affect downstream low flows and related water use restrictions in large river basins has not yet been adequately quantified. ...
... Past extreme drought years have been suggested to be a precursor of future events that may occur more regularly (e.g., Beniston, 2004;Samaniego et al., 2018). To put the stress-test results into perspective, we compared some of the meteorological characteristics of the past drought years with meteorological conditions in the future climate model ensemble (Figure 4). ...
Droughts can lead to extreme low flow situations in rivers, with resulting severe impacts. Upstream snow and ice melt in many of the world's mountain water towers can alleviate the hydrological consequences of drought, yet global warming threatens the cryosphere. To improve the understanding of melt water contributions during drought in the case of future glacier retreat, we developed stress‐test storyline scenarios to model streamflow and tested them in the European river Rhine basin. Meteorological conditions of past drought and low flow years in Europe, 1976, 2003, and 2018, were repeated at three future moments in time, representing nowadays, near future and far future conditions. The latter two conditions were obtained by climate projections under the RCP8.5 scenario. Results show that the low flow situations caused by the meteorological drought situations aggravate in future conditions, more so for the far future and for the year 2003 because of the relatively large glacier ice melt contribution in the past. Summer (July–September) streamflow may decline by 5%–25% far downstream and 30%–70% upstream and the duration of extreme low flow situations may double compared to the selected past drought events. These results are relevant for the Rhine as a major European river but stand exemplary for many other river basins and highlight the importance of cryospheric changes for downstream low flow situations in a changing climate. The stress‐test scenarios allow a glimpse into future extreme low flow events aiding adaptation planning, and might be adapted to include other important low flow drivers.
... Also, the most fatal condition of hyperthermia can be affected by high ambient temperatures (Smoyer 2003;De Stéphan et al. 2005;Tillett 2011;Chen and Liang Zhang 2012;Cheng et al. 2018;Conti 2019;Troeyer et al. 2020;Royé et al. 2020). For example, during the summer months of 2003, much of Western Europe was influenced by major European heat waves (Beniston 2004;Conti 2005;Kosatsky 2005;Cassardo et al. 2007;Feudale and Shukla 2011). It has resulted in major life loss and wildfires, notably in Italy, France, Spain, the United Kingdom, Portugal, and the Netherlands, the heat waves affected several people with many fatalities. ...
This study investigates the characteristics of the more recent heat wave episode in South Africa during January 2023. The evaluation of several meteorological parameters using different reanalysis models and observational datasets have demonstrated that the domination of the anticyclonic pattern over the study area associated with a omega-blocking high. The dominant subtropical Botswana subtropical high along with the low-level omega blocking high pressure over South Africa is one of the main factors for the abnormally hot weather event. The upper-level anomaly wind analysis illustrates the weakening of the zonal wind accompanied by the Rossby waves meridionally stretching. Also, this is correlated to abnormal both tropical easterly and southern westerly jets meandering around an omega-blocking pattern weather system over South Africa which causes warm air mass trapping over the study region. The outcome model results prove the anomalies of the surface higher temperature happened close to the center of the blocking high, where an intensified southward shift of the easterly tropical jet along with the northward shift (jet entrance) of an intensified westerly jet formed two strong cores creating confluent. This research also shows that the January heat wave is demonstrated by an anomalous upper tropospheric anticyclonic inflow (southern hemisphere) causing the strong subsidence, resulting in the surface temperature increase. In comparison with the heat wave event in January 2016, the current study displays the high impact of the internal and local dynamical processes. Also, the current case study addressed in drier condition with less health risk than the previous case study noticed in 2016.
... The exceptional 2003 heat wave 29 remained the most severe in all three regions according to its extremity (a combination of length, temperature anomalies, and spatial extent across layers; see Online methods). Other severe heat waves that struck all three regions are the 2016 30 , 2019 23 , and the recent 2022 31 events (Table 1). ...
Heat waves are among the most studied atmospheric hazards but commonly investigated near-surface temperature patterns provide only limited insight into their complex structure. Here we propose and evaluate a novel approach to the analysis of heat waves as three-dimensional (3D) phenomena, employing the ERA5 reanalysis in three European regions during 1979–2022. Four types of heat waves based on their vertical cross sections of temperature anomalies are introduced: near-surface, lower-tropospheric, higher-tropospheric, and omnipresent. The individual heat wave types differ in length, predominant occurrence within summer, and soil moisture preconditioning. While near-surface heat waves may persist for more than 2 weeks, those located mainly in higher troposphere are shortest (5 days at most). This demonstrates that warm advection must be accompanied by a downward propagation of positive temperature anomalies through air subsidence and diabatic heating to maintain long-lasting heat waves. We also show that soil-moisture preconditioning is crucial for near-surface heat waves only, thus pointing to different driving mechanisms for the individual 3D heat wave types.
... It was reported that the heatwave which happened during in the summer of 2003 in Europe, was the warmest one since 1540 and France was hit significantly. (Beniston et al., 2004;Luterbacher et al., 2004;Schär et al., 2004;Berman et al., 2017). It was reported with a large number in heat-related deaths mostly in France, Germany and Italy (Luterbacher et al., 2004). ...
... The 2003 heat wave, on the other hand, did not reach the highest peak but is characterized by its long, highly pronounced duration. Finally, both heat waves had significant impacts on socio-economic systems, underlining their importance for understanding extreme heat events (see Beniston, 2004;Barriopedro et al., 2011;Kueh and Lin, 2020;Schubert et al., 2011;Gershunov and Douville, 2009). Figure 7 (bottom panel) shows EPI η for the June to September months in 2003. ...
We present a method for the analysis and compact description of large-scale multivariate weather extremes. Spatial patterns of extreme events are identified using the tail pairwise dependence matrix (TPDM) proposed by Cooley and Thibaud (2019). We also introduce the cross-TPDM to identify patterns of common extremes in two variables. An extremal pattern index (EPI) is developed to provide a pattern-based aggregation of temperature. A heat wave definition based on EPI is able to detect the most important heat waves over Europe. As an extension for considering simultaneous extremes in two variables, we propose the threshold-based EPI (TEPI) that captures the compound character of spatial extremes. We investigate daily temperature maxima and precipitation deficits at different accumulation times and find evidence that preceding precipitation deficits have a significant influence on the development of heat waves and that heat waves often co-occur with short-term drought conditions. We exemplarily show for the European heat waves of 2003 and 2010 that TEPI is suitable for describing the large-scale compound character of heat waves.
... It is a situation when the daily max temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 o C. Heatwaves cause severe damage to society and the environment [1,2] with impacts on human health, air quality, and Vegetation [3]. In 2003 European countries faced an unprecedented heatwave, which in turn caused unusually high ozone concentrations [4] and severe health problems, particularly in France, where 15,000 extra deaths occurred [5]. United Nations Environment Programme considers the European heatwave the world's most costly weather-related disaster in 2003. ...
There is an increasing concerned upon the increase in annual mean surface temperature over the years. The high increases in temperature brings about the occurrence of heatwaves especially in the tropical cities of the world including Kano. A research was conducted to assess the prevalence of heatwaves and associated human responses concerning its occurences between 2001-2020 in Kano metropolis, Northwestern Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling technique was applied from the eight local government areas of the metropolis while data concerning heatwaves occurrences were obtained from International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA) data base. Self-designed questionaire was used as tool for collecting data on human responses to heatwaves in the area. The year 2020 experienced high intensity of heatwaves (consecutive 30days) with temperature of 41.7oC. The heatwaves occur mostly in April and May. The human responses to heatwaves in Kano metropolis showed that during heat wave period people experienced mental tiredness, uncomfortability for working, increased in heat related diseases, decreased in work productivity and increased spate of social upheavals. These therefore implied that, heat waves can be regarded as one of the factors that affect socio-econmic settings of the area negatively. Thus, there is the need of orienting people on the inherent dangers of heatwaves on human well being in the area.
... The accuracies were MAPE (mean absolute percentage error), PACF (partial autocorrelation function), and ACF (autocorrelation function). Minimum standards of all these actions are a sign of a fine built-in model with the least forecasting errors (Beniston, 2004); it was also used by Karim et al, 2010. For this paper, the best model for predicting the future area and production of small millets was a quadratic model for 2022 to 2026. ...
India is the world’s main supply of turmeric, accounting for more than 90 per cent of the global turmeric trade. Considering the economic importance of this crop, an attempt has been made to assess the performance of turmeric in terms of area and production, as well as the cost of cultivation in India. Aside from that, the study used the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to project the price of turmeric in the future. The results of growth analysis of turmeric area and production in India using secondary data from 1950-51 to 2020-21 through compound growth rate revealed a positive growth pattern of the area, production, and productivity at rates of 2.60, 4.02, and 1.40 per cent per year, respectively. A total of Rs. 3,08,511 was required for one hectare of turmeric output. According to the results of forecasting methods, the price of turmeric would be Rs. 7179, Rs. 7172, Rs. 7170, Rs. 7170, and Rs. 7170 per quintal in May, June, July, August, and September, respectively, assuming the current growth rate remains the same. Due to increased turmeric arrivals, the expected values of turmeric price exhibited a falling trend in the next five months. Hence, the government should increase and maintain funding for turmeric development programmes, given the importance of turmeric in terms of export revenues and domestic requirements. If these challenges are solved, there is a lot of space to increase turmeric production in the future.
... Under the changing climate, both warm spells and heat waves with increasing frequency, intensity, and duration are reported worldwide [10,11]. The major part of Europe has experienced its most severe heat wave in recent two decades: 2003 in Western Europe, 2010 in Eastern Europe, 2018 in Scandinavia, and 2021 in the Mediterranean, with recordbreaking temperatures [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. Extreme heat events (EHEs) trends and projections exhibit Although the domain is relatively small, it features rather complex topography, comprising deep valleys, high mountains (up to 3000 m a.s.l), and a long, fragmented coastline. ...
Southeast Europe is considered one of the most vulnerable regions in the context of climate change, and projected future summer warming is expected to exceed global rates significantly. Despite the importance of this problem, there have been few studies that utilized Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and the multi-model ensemble approach to examine extreme heat events on a regional scale. Additionally, the NEX-GDDP dataset, successfully applied in other parts of the world to assess extreme heat, has not yet been utilized for Southeast Europe. This study aims to fill that gap, presenting the time evolution and spatial distribution of extreme heat events in Southeast Europe for the historical period 1950–2005 and for the expected future climate up to the end of the 21st century based on the NEX-GDDP dataset. In order to leverage the strengths of the multi-model ensemble approach, a set of purpose-tailored indicators, such as the annual number of hot days, the maximum number of consecutive hot days, and hot spell duration at different thresholds, is computed by the daily maximum temperature data from all datasets, produced by NEX-GDDP (21 for the historical period and 42 for the future period). The E-OBS dataset is used as a reference for evaluating the NEX-GDDP’s capability to simulate the features of the observed historical extreme heat events. The results show that the multi-model ensemble can satisfactorily capture the occurrence of extreme heat events in the historical period, and therefore it is reasonable to assume that the NEX-GDDP dataset has the potential to reproduce such extremes in the projected future. The study provides clear evidence that the persistence and spatial extent of extreme heat will increase significantly. Some indicators that were not relevant for the historical period due to the high-temperature threshold will become helpful in assessing extreme heat in Southeast Europe in the latter part of the century. Thus, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the area-averaged duration of hot spells at 32 °C and 34 °C will increase from near zero in 1976–2005 to 60 and 45 days, respectively, by the end of the century. The indicators used in the study may be helpful for decision-makers to implement climate change mitigation strategies and actions adequately. The findings are consistent with general tendencies in maximum temperatures considered in our previous works but also with the outcomes of recent studies dedicated to the future climate of the region.
... During the heat wave that occurred in the extraordinary summer of 2003, when mean summer temperatures exceeded the 1961-1990 mean by c. 3 • C in Central Europe [36], a significant increase in radial growth was detected, which corroborates strong temperature forcing of radial growth (cf. Supplementary Material, Figure S1). ...
Green alder (Alnus alnobetula), a tall multi-stemmed deciduous shrub, is widespread at high elevations in the Central European Alps. Its growth form frequently leads to asymmetric radial growth and anomalous growth ring patterns, making development of representative ring-width series a challenge. In order to assess the variability among radii of one shoot, among shoots belonging to one stock and among stocks, 60 stem discs were sampled at treeline on Mt. Patscherkofel (Tyrol, Austria). Annual increments were measured along 188 radii and analyzed in terms of their variability by applying dendrochronological techniques. Results revealed a high agreement in ring-width variation among radii of one shoot, among shoots of one stock and largely among stocks from different sites, confirming the pronounced limitation of radial stem growth by climate forcing at the alpine treeline. In contrast to this, a high variability in both absolute growth rates and long-term growth trends was found, which we attribute to different microsite conditions and disturbances. These factors also override climate control of radial growth under growth-limiting environmental conditions. Based on our findings we provide recommendations for the number of samples needed to carry out inter- and intra-annual studies of radial growth in this multi-stemmed clonal shrub.
... Thus, reducing GHGs is necessary for the wellbeing of all life on Earth. Extremes of weather (heat waves, fires, floods, rising sea levels, etc.) are evident all over the globe (see Beniston, 2004). The success of 1987 Montreal Protocol is an excellent example of what timely global action can achieve (Young et al., 2021). ...
In this communication, Earth temperature series in air and soil are analysed and features that become convoluted with the known earth cycles of day-night and its orbit around the sun are separated. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are also considered. Earth weather changes (e.g., cloud, wind, rain and atmospheric pressure) in real time affect daily temperatures in a complex manner. A statistical model that accounts for autocorrelation and linear trend is evaluated together with empirical description of the series. Further graphical analysis is used to enhance remaining features and extreme events. Gaussian bell-shaped curve modelling of each year’s daily profile is described. Further, Gaussian parameter based anomalies are introduced together with soil anomalies at 30 cm depth. Semi-variogram components are shown along with folded percentile or mountain plots for data visualisation. The Chow test is described for detection of any structural changes in data series. For much of the statistical analysis, temperatures observed daily are most appropriate because they carry variation due to earth, sea and sky weather over a single day-night earth rotation cycle. Also, the ever changing earth position along its orbital path captures a varying amount of solar energy, hence the shape of the temperature cycle as one sees it. Human activity and climate changing factors appear to affect temperature cycles within and over years. A double bell-shaped Gaussian curve fit can indicate climate changing effects of Earth life.
... Therefore, in the next decades, mankind will probably experience dramatic and threatening changes in regional extreme weather and climate events. Being "fixed" to their growth substrate, plants are supposed to be particularly exposed to changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events (i.e., heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts, etc.) (Christensen and Christensen, 2003;Goyette et al., 2003;Beniston, 2004;Schär et al., 2004;Ulbrich et al., 2001). An additional constraint is linked to the frequent simultaneous occurrence of two, or three, abiotic (and biotic) stressors, whose combination is mostly lethal to crops (Mittler, 2006), as much as that this "combined stress" is considered as a new and special complex stressor (Bai et al., 2018). ...
Over recent years, the cultivation of hops (Humulus lupulus L.) has spread widely in the Mediterranean, also affecting the southern regions of Spain and Italy with a typical semi-arid climate. Several and recent studies have investigated the responses of this species to the main abiotic stresses, which is an aspect of absolute relevance to the knowledge of the adaptive capacity of hops to the growing conditions of a new cultivation environment. Moreover, given the fact that hops’ phytochemical composition is determined primarily by genetic and environmental factors, and that the species is perennial, the lack of knowledge on the effects of abiotic stress could be reflected in subsequent years, which means multi-year economic risks. This review work therefore aims to showcase, based on an in-depth investigation of the available literature, the response of hop to the main abiotic stresses, and the effect of these on productive and qualitative crop performances. The data presented will be useful to the understanding of constraints and to the identification of useful coping strategies to the cultivation of hops in semi-arid Mediterranean environments.
... Although based on correlations between trait values and changes in abundance, these results point to a mechanism driving future community change in alpine systems. Climate change is likely to influence water availability in the Alps by increasing the frequency and severity of heatwaves (Beniston, 2004). The resulting periods of water limitation may become important drivers of community change in alpine grasslands. ...
Understanding the traits mediating species' responses to climate change is a cornerstone for predicting future community composition and ecosystem function.
Although species' eco‐physiological properties determine their response to environmental change, most trait‐based studies focus on a small subset of easily measured morphological traits as proxies for physiology. This choice may limit our ability to predict the impacts of climate change on species' demography, and obscure the underlying mechanisms.
We conducted a transplantation experiment along a 1000‐m elevation gradient in the Alps to quantify the degree to which changes in plant abundance due to climate warming were predicted by eco‐physiological performance versus common morphological traits.
Physiological measurements revealed that warming favoured species with a conservative leaf‐level water use strategy whereas species whose leaf‐level water use was more ‘wasteful’ were more likely to suffer from the warmer and drier climate. Nevertheless, the predictive power of physiological traits did not exceed that of morphological traits.
Our results, therefore, show that while easily measured morphological traits can successfully predict plant abundance responses to climate, eco‐physiological approaches are needed to understand the underlying mechanism.
Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.
... Este informe proyecta para la región un aumento de los riesgos asociados al ascenso de la temperatura, la modificación en la dinámica pluviométrica y, en consecuencia, una reducción de la disponibilidad de recurso hídrico en todo el Mediterráneo. En esta línea, se espera también un incremento en la frecuencia e intensidad de los eventos climáticos considerados extremos (Meehl et al., 2007;Fischer y Knutti, 2015), como, por ejemplo, un aumento de las rachas secas, de periodos extremos de sequías, las temperaturas anómalas, olas de calor, eventos torrenciales, noches ecuatoriales y tropicales, etc. (Beniston, 2004;Schär et al., 2004;González-Hidalgo et al., 2015, Marcos-García et al., 2017. Estas modificaciones climáticas están dando lugar a una evolución hacia el déficit hídrico y hacia una mayor aridez del territorio (Moreno, 2005;Hueso-González et al., 2018). ...
... Currently, humanity observes significant climatic changes, which are indicated not only in changes in the temperature regime and redistribution of the summer and winter precipitation, but also in an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events (Karl et al., 1995;Beniston, 2004 . The vegetation seasonality reflects the reaction of species to inter-annual climate variability, including air temperature variability, daylight hours, and the soil moisture content (Kramer et al., 2000;Zhang et al., 2005). ...
... Este informe proyecta para la región un aumento de los riesgos asociados al ascenso de la temperatura, la modificación en la dinámica pluviométrica y, en consecuencia, una reducción de la disponibilidad de recurso hídrico en todo el Mediterráneo. En esta línea, se espera también un incremento en la frecuencia e intensidad de los eventos climáticos considerados extremos (Meehl et al., 2007;Fischer y Knutti, 2015), como, por ejemplo, un aumento de las rachas secas, de periodos extremos de sequías, las temperaturas anómalas, olas de calor, eventos torrenciales, noches ecuatoriales y tropicales, etc. (Beniston, 2004;Schär et al., 2004;González-Hidalgo et al., 2015, Marcos-García et al., 2017. Estas modificaciones climáticas están dando lugar a una evolución hacia el déficit hídrico y hacia una mayor aridez del territorio (Moreno, 2005;Hueso-González et al., 2018). ...
Domingo Rasilla
Presidente de la Asociación Española de Climatología (AEC)
Tras el parón forzado por la COVID 19, la Asociación Española de Climatología retoma el curso habitual de actividades organizando el XII Congreso Internacional de la AEC, en colaboración con la Universidad de Santiago de Compostela y la Universidad de Vigo, bajo el lema “Retos del Cambio Climático: impactos, mitigación y adaptación”. En los años transcurridos desde nuestro último congreso, en Cartagena, el mundo ha experimentado una transformación, no sólo derivada de las consecuencias de la pandemia: una guerra en Europa, una crisis económica global etc… Quedan lejos los tiempos de la efervescencia mediática entorno al activismo climático, ya que el interés de la sociedad parece haber girado hacia otros temas. Sin embargo, las conclusiones globales aportadas por los diferentes grupos de trabajo del Sexto informe de evaluación del IPCC, al igual que fenómenos más domésticos como “Filomena”, “Gloria” o “Celia”, la ola de calor de junio pasado o las más de 20 000 ha quemadas en la Sierra de la Culebra, atestiguan las consecuencias de la crisis climática, y la necesidad de abordar medidas para su mitigación y soluciones de adaptación que suavicen el tránsito a este nuevo escenario. El XII Congreso Internacional de la AEC llega de la mano de un grupo entusiasta de profesores, los doctores Nieves Lorenzo, Alberto Martí y Dominic Royé, un equipo cuya formación multidisciplinar deja patente la necesidad de abordar el estudio del Clima desde una perspectiva transversal, una máxima que ha acompañado a la AEC desde el principio de sus actividades. A pesar de las numerosas dificultades que han jalonado su camino, nunca manifestaron deseo de abandonar la tarea encomendada. Por ello, en nombre de la Junta Directiva y de todos los socios de la AEC, quisiera agradecerles y felicitarles por su buen hacer y dedicación a lo largo de estos años. Extiendo este agradecimiento también a todos los organismos e instituciones que han apoyado este proyecto: AEMET, Xunta de Galicia, Meteogalicia, ABanca, Confederación Hidrográfica Miño‐Sil, Augas de Galicia, FIC, Meteored, Vexiza y Caixa Rural Galega. El XII Congreso Internacional coincide además con otro hito: este año la AEC cumple 25 años. Nacida como un foro de debate y de intercambio de información, la AEC ha protagonizado un espectacular avance de los estudios climáticos en nuestro país, materializado en una profunda renovación metodológica y temática. Esta historia de éxito recae, en gran medida, en una generación que, a la vez mentores y amigos, creó e impulsó la AEC, y que por razón de edad, está adquiriendo nuevas responsabilidades. Desde la Junta Directiva de la AEC queremos que estas líneas también sirvan de homenaje a esa generación; nuestro objetivo debe ser el prolongar y mejorar, si es posible, su legado para que la AEC perdure, al menos, otros 25 años. Por ello, la AEC debe adaptarse a un mundo en acelerada transformación, con el reto de ampliar sus actividades en ámbitos más allá del puramente académico, pues es evidente la necesidad de transmitir a la sociedad, de forma rigurosa pero también próxima, las consecuencias, cada vez más evidentes, de un cambio climático global.
... Studies on ETE, including those related to heatwaves, are often conducted from a global or synoptic-scale perspective. The characteristics of large-scale heatwaves have been studied in different parts of the world, especially in Europe (e.g., Black et al., 2004;Stott et al., 2004;Beniston, 2004;Stefanon et al., 2012;Miralles et al., 2014;Zschenderlein et al., 2018), North America (e.g., Gershunov et al., 2009;Lau and Nath, 2012), and Asia (e.g., Chen and Lu, 2015;You et al., 2017;Choi et al., 2020). Recent research has also focused on urbanscale heatwaves (e.g., Heaviside et al., 2015;Zhao et al., 2018;Jiang et al., 2019;Tewari et al., 2019;Chew et al., 2021). ...
In this study, we analysed the characteristics of extreme temperature events (ETEs) that occurred in Niigata City, located in the coastal region of the Sea of Japan. The results show that there was a tropical cyclone (TC) in the vicinity of Japan (in the latitude range of 29.0°–45.8°N and longitude range of 123.2°–139.2°E) on 60% of the days when ETEs occurred in Niigata City (TOP10 days in the past 30 years, 0.09 percentile). Furthermore, the strong east‐southeast to southeast winds caused by the TCs and winds over the mountains reached Niigata City. These results indicate that ETEs in Niigata City are caused by southeasterly foehn winds associated with TCs. It is generally believed that ETEs in Niigata City increase the risk of heatstroke. However, the index for heatstroke risk level is not high despite the extreme temperatures. This is because the downslope winds from the mountains become strong, and humidity decreases during the ETE event. A comparison of the results of this study with those of previous studies shows that the favourable atmospheric conditions for the ETE event and the impact of the ETE on local weather and human life differ greatly between the Pacific and Sea of Japan coasts.
... Particularly, urban residents are more susceptible to extreme temperatures 11 . In the past, the European (in 2003) and Russian (in 2010) heatwaves caused more than 70,000 and 56,000 deaths, respectively 16,17 . ...
The frequency and severity of extreme temperatures are changing and therefore, the necessity for the development of design temperatures has emerged. Design temperatures in the form of temperature-duration-frequency (TDF) curves can be utilized to better understand the variability of extreme temperatures with respect to duration and recurrence levels. This study explored the presence/absence of trend and step change in extreme temperatures for nine locations across Australia. Frequency analysis of annual maximum temperatures from 1- to 15-day durations was performed using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution under stationary and non-stationary conditions, where the parameters were estimated using the Monte Carlo Bayesian inference approach. Rising trend and step change were observed in Hobart, Adelaide, Perth, Darwin, Alice Springs, Sydney and Melbourne, but not identified in Cairns and Brisbane. Lower variability in design temperatures was found in Cairns and Brisbane, as well as in Darwin and Alice Springs. In contrast, high variability was observed in Sydney and Melbourne, and high design temperatures are reflected in Adelaide and Perth. The approach followed in this study can be applied to any location for TDF curves development and can be utilised to support health risk management of heatwaves, design of infrastructures where temperature related changes may impact the infrastructure, and for preparedness for natural hazards like droughts and bushfires.
... The loss to the agricultural sector was estimated at around €13 billion (IPCC 2021) and the event claimed upwards of 30,000 lives (Kosatsky, 2005). Data suggest that human-induced climate change contributed significantly to the 2003 European summer warming (Stott et al., 2004), and climate model simulations suggest that late 21st century summers may see average temperatures that resemble the extreme temperatures of this devastating heat wave (Beniston, 2004). These expectations have put extreme events and extreme event attribution at the center of a growing body of scientific research and spotlighted them with respect to planning and policy (Kraas, 2008;IPCC 2021). ...
The term “extreme event” is commonly used to describe high-impact, unanticipated natural events, like floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. It first appeared in the scientific literature in the 1950s and has since spread to disciplines as diverse as economics, psychology, medicine, and engineering. The term is increasingly being applied to the study of historical, prehistorical, and deep-time events across a broad range of scales, and it is widely acknowledged that such events have had profound impacts on the Earth’s biodiversity and cultures. Understandably, then, how people think about, define, and study extreme events varies considerably. With extreme events expected to become more frequent, longer lasting, and more intense in the coming decades as a result of global warming, the differing extreme event definitions—both across and within disciplines—is likely to lead to confusion among researchers and pose significant challenges for predicting and preparing for extreme events and their impacts on natural and social systems. With this in mind, we conducted a systematic quantitative review of 200 randomly selected, peer-reviewed “extreme event” research papers (sourced from Web of Science, accessed January 2020) from the biological, societal, and earth sciences literature with the aim of quantifying several pertinent features of the research sample. On the one hand, our analysis found a great deal of variability among extreme event papers with respect to research interests, themes, concepts, and definitions. On the other hand, we found a number of key similarities in how researchers think about and study extreme events. One similarity we encountered was that researchers tend to view extreme events within a particular temporal context and quite often in terms of rates of change. Another similarity we encountered was that researchers often think of and study extreme events in terms of risks, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The similarities identified here may be useful in developing a common and comprehensive definition of what constitutes an extreme event, and should allow for more comparative research into extreme events at all spatio-temporal scales which, we predict, will provide important new insights into the nature of extreme events.
... By accounting only for large-area thermal anomalies (more than 10% of the European continent), Twardosz and Kossowska-Cezak, 2021b found that, under current climate warming, hot atmospheric anomalies are increasingly frequent, while cold atmospheric anomalies are on the wane. Besides, the increase in MHW and decrease in MCS activities are consistent with the long-term global air temperature and ocean heat content increase induced by anthropogenic forcing (Arias et al., 2021), but might also be partly modulated by trends in other local factors in Europe such as a change in atmospheric circulation induced by non-uniform warming (Beniston, 2004;Twardosz et al., 2021a) or more persistent circulation patterns (Kyselýand Huth, 2008). ...
Marine temperature extremes are anomalous ocean temperature events, often persisting over several weeks or longer, with potential impacts on physical and ecological processes that often encompass socio-economic implications. In recent years, a considerable effort has been directed at the development of metrics allowing an objective characterization of both marine heatwaves (MHWs) and marine cold spells (MCSs). However, the majority of these metrics do not consider explicitly the spatial extent of the events. Here, we rank and evaluate the relative importance of marine temperature extreme events thanks to a metric, called activity, that combines the number of events, duration, intensity and spatial extent. According to this definition, in the Mediterranean basin between 1982 and 2021, summer 2018 experienced slightly more MHW activity than summer 2003, documented as an exceptional extreme event. Besides, MHW activities were higher in the last two decades while winter MCS activities were higher in the 1980s-1990s. The highest MHW activities occurred preferentially in the western Mediterranean while the strongest MCS activities took place preferentially in the eastern Mediterranean. Moreover, the duration, mean intensity, and activity of the three strongest MHWs are twice as high as those of the three strongest MCSs. The long-term tendency of extreme events activity shows an accelerated increase for summer MHWs (about +150°C.days.10⁶km²) and a linear decrease for winter MCSs in the Mediterranean (about -60°C.days.10⁶km²) over the last four decades.
... Europe has experienced several intense heatwaves since the beginning of the 21st century [8,[21][22][23][24], which have been associated with about 90% of deaths and 4% of economic losses from disasters after 1970 [9]. The severity of the heatwaves is expected to increase in the second half of the century due to the increasing magnitude and variability in summer temperatures [1,25]. ...
Many studies in the last few years have been dedicated to the increasing temperatures and extreme heat in Europe since the second half of the 20th century because of their adverse effects on ecosystems resilience, human health, and quality of life. The present research aims to analyze the spatio-temporal variations of extreme heat events in Southeastern Europe using daily temperature data from 70 selected meteorological stations and applying methodology developed initially for the quantitative assessment of hot weather in Bulgaria. We demonstrate the suitability of indicators based on maximum temperature thresholds to assess the intensity (i.e., magnitude and duration) and the tendency of extreme heat events in the period 1961–2020 both by individual stations and the Köppen’s climate zones. The capability of the used intensity-duration hot spell model to evaluate the severity of extreme heat events has also been studied and compared with the Excess Heat Factor severity index on a yearly basis. The study provides strong evidence of the suitability of the applied combined approach in the investigation of the spatio-temporal evolution of the hot weather phenomena over the considered domain.
... The accuracies were MAPE (mean absolute percentage error), PACF (partial autocorrelation function) and ACF (autocorrelation func-tion). Minimum standards of all these actions are a sign of a fine built-in model with the least forecasting errors (Beniston, 2004); it was also used by Karim et al., 2010. For this paper, the best model for predicting the future area and production of small millets was a quadratic model for the years 2022 to 2026. ...
The forecasting behaviour of millet plays a critical role in production planning at the Indian farm level. This study made an effort to forecast the area and production of small millets in India with time series analysis. The performance of the forecasting models was appraised and collated by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) and Auto Correlation Function (ACF) criteria. For this analysis, the yearly data of the area and production of small millet from 1950 to 2021 were calculated. Among all Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, ARIMA (0,1,0) was found to be the best fitted for forecasting the area and production of minor millets in India since, principally, this model relies on historical ideals of the sequences in addition to earlier error relations for forecasting minor millets and it does not adopt information of any fundamental model or associations as in some other approaches. The predicted values of minor millet area showed decreased trend from 422.4 thousand hectares in the year 2022 to 409.2 thousand hectares in the year 2026. Likewise, the production under small millets declined from 393.5 thousand tons to 159.5 thousand tons for the corresponding period. Hence, production of these crops can be enhanced by suitable use of inputs and timely application of inputs, high yielding varieties, government interventions like policy support, subsidising through the Public Distribution System and awareness by the way of propaganda and demonstration.
... Numerosos estudios afirman que en el contexto actual de calentamiento global aumenta la frecuencia, duración e intensidad de las OC (Beniston, 2004;Della-Marta et al., 2007;Dosio et al., 2018;Fischer & Schär, 2010;Guerreiro et al., 2018;Kang & Eltahir, 2018;Rohini et al., 2016;Ward et al., 2016). En Argentina, entre 1961 y 2010 se ha incrementado la frecuencia de olas de calor, siendo registrado el mayor número de ellas en el período 2001-2010 . ...
p>El objetivo de la investigación fue identificar a través de la prensa escrita los impactos de las olas de calor [OC] y olas de frío [OF] ocurridas en Bahía Blanca durante el período 1961-2020 en el ambiente urbano, en términos de afectaciones, actores y acciones. El proceso metodológico consistió en dos etapas diferenciadas: la primera fue identificar las fechas de ocurrencia de OC y OF a partir de registros de temperaturas máximas y mínimas diarias provistos por el Servicio Meteorológico Nacional [SMN] y la segunda fue buscar, sistematizar y analizar la información de artículos periodísticos de un diario local correspondientes a las fechas de ocurrencia de los eventos. Se observó un aumento en la relevancia de las temáticas relacionadas con OC y OF en las últimas dos décadas de análisis. El impacto de OC en el ambiente urbano se asoció fundamentalmente al suministro energético y a la ocurrencia de incendios. Se propusieron medidas locales de desarrollo sostenible para disminuir la vulnerabilidad urbana ante OC.</p
... The first period was a drought period: at the end of 2003, the lake level reached −1.9 m, i.e., the minimum value in 1996-2019. It is worth noting that 2003 is the year when Europe experienced a particularly extreme climate anomaly with the July temperatures anomaly reaching 6 • [70,71]. In this period, the model returns values of δ that are much higher than the observations (RMSE S = 0.30 m in Table 4). ...
Climate change has a strong impact on inland water bodies such as lakes. This means that the increase in lake temperature recorded in recent decades-in Europe as well-can change the evaporation regime of the lakes. This, together with the variation of the water cycle, in particular precipitation, implies that the water mass balance of lakes may vary due to climate change. Water mass balance modeling is therefore of paramount importance to monitor lakes in the context of global warming. Although many studies have focused on such a modeling, there is no shared approach that can be used for any lake across the globe, irrespective of the size. This becomes even more problematic for shallow and small lakes, for which few studies exist. For this reason, in this paper the use of reanalysis data, in particular ERA5-Land provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), is proposed for the mass balance modeling. In fact, ERA5-Land has a global coverage and it is the only data source comprising a specific model for lakes, the Fresh-water Lake model (FLake). The chosen case study is the Trasimeno lake, a small and shallow lake located in Central Italy. The use of the reanalysis was preceded by data validation by considering both ground-based and satellite observations. The results show that there is a good agreement between the observed monthly variation of the lake level, ΔH, and the corresponding values of the water storage, δ, computed by means of the ERA5-Land data (Pearson coefficient larger than 70%). Discrepancies between observations and the ERA5-Land data happen in periods characterized in Europe by an extreme climate anomaly. This promising result encourages the use of ERA5-Land for other lakes.
... Given that heat waves (Beniston 2004;Meehl and Tebaldi 2004;Stott et al. 2004;Fischer et al. 2007;Cowan et al. 2014;Schär 2016;Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018) and air pollution episodes (Mickley et al. 2004;Tagaris et al. 2007;Wu et al. 2008;Gao et al. 2017;Rieder et al. 2015;Schnell et al. 2016;Doherty et al. 2017;Schnell and Prather 2017) may aggravate over the coming decades, it is of great significance to analyze the historical trends of cooccurrence of heatwave and air pollution extremes, which would shed lights on the fidelity of their future projections. Another imperative to understand the cooccurrence of heatwave and air pollution extremes is driven by the recognitions that the simultaneous exposure to both air pollution and heat wave may amplify the health consequences beyond the sum of individual effects (Basu 2009;Dear et al. 2010;Kan et al. 2012;Ren et al. 2008;Stafoggia et al. 2008;Q. ...
Climate change and air pollution are two intimately interlinked global concerns. The frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves are projected to increase globally under future climate change. A growing body of evidence indicates that health risks associated with the joint exposure to heat waves and air pollution can be greater than that due to individual factors. However, the cooccurrences of heat and air pollution extremes in China remain less explored in the observational records. Here we investigate the spatial pattern and temporal trend of frequency, intensity, and duration of cooccurrences of heat and air pollution extremes using China's nationwide observations of hourly PM 2.5 and O 3 , and the ERA5 reanalysis dataset over 2013-20. We identify a significant increase in the frequency of cooccurrence of wet-bulb temperature (T w) and O 3 exceedances (beyond a certain predefined threshold), mainly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region (up by 4.7 days decade −1) and the Yangtze River delta (YRD). In addition, we find that the increasing rate (compared to the average levels during the study period) of joint exceedance is larger than the rate of T w and O 3 itself. For example, T w and O 3 coextremes increased by 7.0% in BTH, higher than the percentage increase of each at 0.9% and 5.5%, respectively. We identify same amplification for YRD. This ongoing upward trend in the joint occurrence of heat and O 3 extremes should be recognized as an emerging environmental issue in China, given the potentially larger compounding impact to public health.
... Konsekwencją częstszego występowania tych zjawisk są poważne skutki społeczne oraz gospodarcze. Przykładem może być wysoka liczba zgonów spowodowana występowaniem niekorzystnych warunków biometeorologicznych w trakcie fali upałów w 2003 roku w zachodniej i południowej Europie (Beniston 2004;Grize i in. 2005). ...
The paper focuses on changes of the thermal conditions in Piła in 1971–2020. In the study, daily data were obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – the National Research Institute, to analyze the variability of the annual, seasonal and monthly average air temperature, develop a thermal classification and determine the variability of the start dates and the length of 6 thermal seasons. The analysis showed an increase in the average air temperature for all of the time intervals. The consequence of the progressive warming was the increasingly frequent occurrence of months, seasons and years with thermal conditions above the norm for the entire studied period. The research also showed statistically significant changes in the dates of the beginning of the spring, summer, autumn and early winter, with the highest trend in the autumn.
... The 2010 heat wave in Russia that in Moscow exceeded 30°C for more than a month (Alexander 2010), killed about 55,000 people and caused about 25% of Russian crops to fail (Barriopedro et al. 2011). In Europe in 2003, the hottest summer in 500 years killed nearly 15,000 people in France alone (Beniston 2004, Poumadère et al. 2005) and more than 70,000 people mainly across western and central Europe (Robine et al. 2008). In 1995, an intense heat wave in the central and eastern United States was the most severe in close to half a century (Kunkel et al. 1996); in Chicago, 525 deaths were attributed to this heat wave. ...
Ontario in a world with 450 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere. Current impacts, risk assessment, ghg emissions reductions.
Urban Heat Island (UHI) is the phenomenon where urbanization results in an increase in surface temperature among different locations within the city. UHI hotspots not only lead to poor air quality and make people’s health at higher risk, but they also tend to magnify the heat stress and level of thermal discomfort experienced by the people. This study aims to find the UHI spots using thermal remote sensing based on satellites, for the estimation of surface temperature, over a continuous spatial and temporal scale and to develop a mobile application indicating the spatial pattern of UHI and heat stress. Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) data collected at various locations across Chennai city was evaluated to obtain the indices reflecting risk levels of heat stress in each area. This was subsequently analyzed in a GIS environment, along with the disaggregated Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, to arrive at valuable information that was used to delineate the hotspots of high heat stress and UHI intensity in the city. Finally, this data was exported to a mobile platform (Android) and an application indicating the spatial pattern of UHI and heat stress was developed, which shows the heat risk zones, mitigation measures, etc. This study confirmed the existence of UHI effect in Chennai city during summer. Temperature difference was found to be even as high as 6–7 °C in many parts of the city. The intensity of UHI was established to be strongly dependent on urban factors such as the density of built-up areas, vegetation cover and presence of water bodies. It was shown that such adverse heat conditions deteriorated the urban environment causing health problems. The results of this study indicate that the highest thermal stress is found in the South-Western and Northern part of the city, which is predominantly crowded, constructed (built-up), industrial and commercial areas.
This chapter aims to introduce the impact of the 2008 ice storm on forest trees and ecosystem functions in southeast China. The ice storm damaged forests of 20 million hectares, about 10% of the total forestland in China, and caused significant ecological disturbance and damage to the forest ecosystem. There are different damage patterns in natural and plantation forests, with general patterns including uprooting, stem breakage, bending, and leaning. However, there were some differences among the tree species. The severity of forest tree species damage was classified as severe, moderate, or light based on standing volume loss or tree number loss. The chapter also discusses the storm-caused damage to forest ecosystems, which considerably changes the structure and function of the ecosystems. The damage to the ecosystem structure has weakened the capacities for water and soil conservation, water resource management, and has resulted in reduced biodiversity. It is essential to evaluate the impact of massive ice storms on major forest types in southeast China, which will serve as valuable references in tree plantation and forest management in the future.
Subtropical highs have a profound influence on the weather and climate of adjacent continents. In this study, we use reanalysis data to investigate the interannual variability and trends in winter subtropical highs from 1979 to 2021. We find dynamical relationships between subtropical high intensity, the Hadley and Ferrel Circulation intensity, and the Eady Growth Rate (EGR). A poleward shift of the maximum in EGR is associated with a strengthening of the descending branches of the Ferrel and Hadley Cells, with subtropical troposphere adiabatic warming and an increased intensity and poleward movement of the subtropical highs. Shifts in the poleward EGR are dominated by changes in vertical wind shear which, in turn, are in thermal wind balance with variations and trends in temperature. The mechanism for the intensification of the subtropical highs involves feedbacks from high‐frequency transient eddies. Strong North Pacific and South Pacific Subtropical highs are associated with La‐Niña conditions. We also show that the mechanisms for interannual variations are similar to those for trends in the highs.
Hot or warm extremes are days with exceptionally high air temperatures in a given place and/or season. They may have significant impacts on human health and life, the natural environment, and the economy. The global rise in near-surface air temperatures translates into increases in the frequency, intensity, and duration of such events, which contributes to the intensive development of research on them. This review aims to summarize the state of knowledge of hot and warm extremes in Europe, with a special focus on their definitions, physical drivers and impacts, long-term variability and trends. The study demonstrates that research on temperature extremes is making remarkable progress, but there are still issues to be explored to understand these complex events.
Species-specific anatomical and morphological changes of Scots pine and Siberian larch needles were studied at different levels pollution by aluminum smelter emissions. Anatomical parameters were found to change non-linearly in polluted needles as a result of pathological exposure to pollutants. In pine, negative anatomical changes include the following: reduction of the cross-sectional area of needles, central cylinder and conductive bundles, reduction of the thickness of the external tissues and mesophyll, reduction of resin channels and a decrease in their diameter. At a critical level of pollution, when the content of pollutants in pine needles reaches maximum values, certain changes in anatomical parameters in the remaining green needles are presumably adaptive. In larch needles at low, moderate and high levels of needles pollution, the anatomical changes found can be classed as adaptive – this is an increase in needles mass, thickness and width, thickness of the epidermis, mesophyll, cross-sectional area of needles. Larch needles, even at a critical pollution level, show no significant anatomical abnormalities. Negative morphological changes of pine include a decrease in the size of needles and shoots, their mass and the number of needles on shoots, in larch – a decrease in the length of needles and shoots, the number of brachiblasts. The results obtained suggest that indicators of the development of pathological processes in both pine and larch exposed to pollution are changes in the number of visual and morphological parameters of tree needles and shoots. Both showed a high level of correlation with the content of pollutants in the needles.
Ice aprons are defined as very small ice bodies covering steep rock slopes. They have only been the subject of increased scientific interest for a few years, despite the fact that they are a condition for mountaineering and obvious elements in the high-alpine landscapes. However, very little is known about their distribution, evolution and physical characteristics. In this paper, we review the existing knowledge on ice aprons, which have almost exclusively been investigated in the Mont-Blanc massif, Western Alps. We supplement this review with novel results from recent surveys of ice aprons. We used a wide array of methodologies, from remote sensing (multi-source imagery) to in situ (stakes and thermal monitoring) and laboratory (radiocarbon dating and texture analysis) glaciological investigations. In the Mont-Blanc massif, ice aprons occupy 4.2 km ² within the alpine permafrost zone. Temperature measured at the ice–rock interface is indeed largely negative. Thinness of ice aprons coupled with the cold context implies a quasi-stationary shear regime without basal Sliding. Only ice at the surface can possibly melt in warm periods. After a shrinking period from the end of the Little Ice Age to the mid-to-late-1960s, ice aprons experienced a short period of expansion, followed by an accelerated shrinkage since the beginning of the 21st century. This shrinkage now favours rockfall triggering and poses a serious threat to a glaciological heritage since ice aprons host several-thousand-year-old ice. Finally, we synthesize this information to assess the existing definition of ice aprons, and propose some future research directions.
The threat of climate change on water resources, caused by climate change impacts on Dniester River water resources needs to strengthen Moldova-Ukraine cross-border cooperation at all levels, including the expansion of public participation in the prioritization and formulation of relevant transboundary policies. The content of this collection seeks to generalize available knowledge and good practices in this field based on the results of a joint project “Strengthening of Moldova-Ukraine cross-border Cooperation and public participation in the Development of climate change adaptation policies for the Lower Dniester water resources management” (project
# 1064/2010) that was realized by the scientists and experts of both countries with the support of the Black Sea Trust for Regional Cooperation. The conference gathered experts of Moldova and Ukraine.
Anthropogenic climate change will have a detrimental impact on global health, including the direct impact of higher ambient temperatures. Existing projections of heat-related health outcomes in a changing climate often consider increasing ambient temperatures alone. Population growth and structure has been identified as a key source of uncertainty in future projections. Age acts as a modifier of heat risk, with heat-risk generally increasing in older age-groups. In many countries the population is ageing as lower birth rates and increasing life expectancy alter the population structure. Preparing for an older population, in particular in the context of a warmer climate should therefore be a priority in public health research and policy. We assess the level of inclusion of population growth and demographic changes in research projecting exposure to heat and heat-related health outcomes. To assess the level of inclusion of population changes in the literature, keyword searches of two databases were implemented, followed by reference and citation scans to identify any missed papers. Relevant papers, those including a projection of the heat health burden under climate change, were then checked for inclusion of population scenarios. Where sensitivity to population change was studied the impact of this on projections was extracted. Our analysis suggests that projecting the heat health burden is a growing area of research, however, some areas remain understudied including Africa and the Middle East and morbidity is rarely explored with most studies focusing on mortality. Of the studies pairing projections of population and climate, specifically SSPs and RCPs, many used pairing considered to be unfeasible. We find that not including any projected changes in population or demographics leads to underestimation of health burdens of on average 64 %. Inclusion of population changes increased the heat health burden across all but two studies.
Extreme climatic events present society with significant challenges in a rapidly warming world. Ordinary citizens, the insurance industry and governments are concerned about the apparent increase in the frequency of weather and climate events causing extreme, and in some instances, catastrophic, impacts. Climate Extremes and Society focuses on the recent and potential future consequences of weather and climate extremes for different socioeconomic sectors. The book also examines actions that may enable society to better respond to climate variability. It provides examples of the impact of climate and weather extremes on society. How have these extremes varied in the past, and how might they change in the future? What type of efforts will help society adapt to potential future changes in climate and weather extremes? The book is designed for all policy-makers, engineers and scientists who have an interest in the effects of climate extremes on society.
De conclusies van het IPCC zijn duidelijk: de cumulatieve uitstoot van CO2 en CH4 in de atmosfeer moet drastisch worden verminderd. De klimaatverandering zal de kwetsbaarheid van gebieden in vele opzichten vergroten. Gebieden zullen zich dus moeten aanpassen aan de verwachte gevolgen van de klimaatverandering.
Dat is de ambitie van het Klimaatactieplan van de gemeente Vorst, met als doel de Europese en gewestelijke doelstellingen te verwezenlijken door de directe en indirecte uitstoot van broeikasgassen te verminderen en door maatregelen te nemen om zich aan de gevolgen van de klimaatverandering aan te passen.
Met de steun van het Centrum voor Stadsecologie vzw en Climact sa heeft het gemeentebestuur van Vorst een participatief proces opgestart waarbij de gemeentediensten en de burgers gedurende meer dan een jaar (van oktober 2021 tot december 2022) gemobiliseerd zullen worden en dat zal leiden tot de opstelling van het Vorstse Klimaatactieprogramma. Hierin zullen de ambities van Vorst inzake de beperking van broeikasgassen en de aanpassing aan de gevolgen van de klimaatverandering (KV) worden opgenomen.
Het proces bestaat uit drie fasen:
Fase 1 - van oktober 2021 tot januari 2022
• Koolstofbalans van de gemeente Vorst: voornaamste resultaten.
• Klimaatvooruitzichten en diagnose van de risico’s en kwetsbaarheid van Vorst ten aanzien van de klimaatverandering.
Fase 2 - van februari 2022 tot juni 2022
• Participatieve workshops voor burgers: geconsolideerde diagnoses en voorstellen voor aanpassingsmaatregelen.
• Thematische workshops met de gemeentediensten: geconsolideerde diagnoses en voorstellen voor aanpassingsmaatregelen.
Fase 3 - van juli 2022 tot december 2022
• Uitwerking en opstelling van het Klimaatactieprogramma.
Dit verslag is de bijdrage van het Centrum voor Stadsecologie voor fase 1. Het bevat de “Klimaatvooruitzichten en diagnose van de risico’s en kwetsbaarheid van Vorst ten aanzien van de klimaatverandering”. Naast dit voorwoord bestaat het uit verschillende delen: -
- Methode
- Hoofdstuk 1. Algemene inleiding
- Hoofdstuk 2. Analyse van de klimaatvooruitzichten in Vorst
- Hoofdstuk 3. Analyse van de risico’s en kwetsbaarheden van het grondgebied van Vorst ten aanzien van de klimaatverandering
- Conclusie
Le présent rapport est la contribution du Centre d'écologie urbaine pour la phase 1 du Plan d'Action Climat de la commune de Forest (Bruxelles, Belgique), il présente les « Perspectives climatiques et diagnostic des risques et vulnérabilité de Forest face aux changements climatiques » en se référant aux perspectives climatiques attendues pour le territoire belge/forestois d’ici la seconde moitié du 21e siècle. Ce diagnostic a révélé des disparités que l’on peut qualifier d’"inégalités environnementales" qui sont explicitées et cartographiées pour la première fois.
Extreme temperatures, either elevated or low, are known to cause adverse impacts on the natural and human environment. Increased hospital admissions and mortality rates during heat and cold waves demonstrate the severity of the problem concerning human health. Heat waves (HWs) are expected to become more severe in terms of frequency, intensity, and duration due to climate change, whereas cold events will become rarer and milder. Along with rapid urbanization and deterioration of air quality due to human activities, heat waves pose a major threat for people’s well-being and quality living conditions, affecting especially the urban population. Thus, appropriate counter-measures and mitigation strategies are necessary worldwide in order to combat these effects in timely intervention. The current chapter focuses primarily on heat waves addressing in detail their definition, generation, future projection, and synergy with the urban heat island (UHI) effect and air pollution in cities, as well as their harsh impacts on several sectors and the approaches for mitigating these effects. A part of this chapter is also devoted to cold waves, while a case study concerning the inter-play between extreme temperatures, thermal comfort, and air pollution during a significant HW episode that occurred in Greece is presented.KeywordsHeat wavesCold wavesAir qualityHuman healthUrban heat islandClimate change
Both decision-makers and the general public need detailed information on future climate to evaluate the risks associated with possible climate change due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Projections of future climate change already exist, but they are deficient, in terms of both the characterization of their uncertainties and their regional detail. To date, the assessment of potential impacts of climate change has generally relied on projections from simple climate models or coarse resolution coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The former include, at best, only a limited physical representation of the climate system. The latter are unable to resolve processes occurring at scales of less than ˜300 km. This resolution limitation precludes the simulation of realistic extreme events and the detailed spatial structure of variables like temperature and precipitation over regions characterized by heterogeneous surfaces. Typical examples of such regions are mountainous areas such as the Alps or Scandinavia or coastal zones, and areas surrounding inland seas, such as the Mediterranean and Baltic.
The known documentary climatic evidence from six European countries — Switzerland, Germany, the Czech Republic, ancient Hungary, Italy and Spain — is presented and classified in this article and then further analyzed in subsequent papers included in this volume. The sixteenth century witnessed an increase in the number and variety of sources in Switzerland, Germany and the Czech Republic as well as in the western and northern parts of ancient Hungary (present Slovakia). In northern Italy, the relevant sources are more abundant and widespread than in central Europe, but they have hardly been explored. Town chronicles written by members of the literate elite comprise the basic type of evidence in central Europe (including northern Italy and Hungary). This kind of source reports exceptional climatic events (e.g. anomalies and natural disasters) along with their impact on the environment and on society. Documentary data are the only evidence known to exist for reconstructing time series of natural disasters prior to the twentieth century. In order to document the extreme character of an event, chroniclers frequently referred to features in the cryosphere, biosphere or hydrosphere that were known to be more accurate yardsticks of temperature and precipitation patterns than subjective impressions. When records of such events are compiled with the description of some of the known effects, the results can be transformed into a severity index. Whereas chroniclers usually focused upon extreme events, long, continuous and seemingly homogeneous series of different kinds of proxy data are drawn from administrative records. Most of them are connected to the timing of certain kinds of agricultural work (haymaking, beginning of grain harvest or vintage) or to the amount and quality of agricultural production (per hectare yield of vineyards, sugar content of wine, etc.). In most cases the timing of these works was found to be directly related to temperature patterns over the preceding months and weeks.
All the Iberian peninsula towns, which had an institutionalized municipal authority, have preserved documents generated from the late Middle Ages. These records frequently contain references to floods and meteorological anomalies such as droughts and long wet spells. They also include mention of the system of rogations, those religious rites performed in a standardized way within the Spanish world with a view to putting an end to an alleged meteorological stress.
The data for Switzerland, Hungary and Spain as well as much of the data for Germany are stored in the EURO-CLMHIST database set up at the Institute of History at the University of Bern. At present, EIJRO-CLIMHIST comprises some 600,000 data for the period from AD 750 to the beginning of the period of instrumental networks. About 120,000 records for Germany are currently stored in a data bank called HISKLID located at the Department of Geography of the University of Würzburg. The database for the Czech Republic includes records for the time-span AD 975–1900 and is housed with the Department of Geography of Masaryk University in Brno. Data on Italy were collected with different purposes and are stored in two data banks, the CNR-ICTTMA (climatic data and natural disasters) and the SGA (extreme events).
In this study we examine the anthropogenically forced climate response over the historical period, 1860 to present, and projected response to 2100, using updated emissions scenarios and an improved coupled model (HadCM3) that does not use flux adjustments. We concentrate on four new Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) namely (A1FI, A2, B2, B1) prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report, considered more self-consistent in their socio-economic and emissions structure, and therefore more policy relevant, than older scenarios like IS92a. We include an interactive model representation of the anthropogenic sulfur cycle and both direct and indirect forcings from sulfate aerosols, but omit the second indirect forcing effect through cloud lifetimes. The modelled first indirect forcing effect through cloud droplet size is near the centre of the IPCC uncertainty range. We also model variations in tropospheric and stratospheric ozone. Greenhouse gas-forced climate change response in B2 resembles patterns in IS92a but is smaller. Sulfate aerosol and ozone forcing substantially modulates the response, cooling the land, particularly northern mid-latitudes, and altering the monsoon structure. By 2100, global mean warming in SRES scenarios ranges from 2.6 to 5.3 K above 1900 and precipitation rises by 1%/K through the twenty first century (1.4%/K omitting aerosol changes). Large-scale patterns of response broadly resemble those in an earlier model (HadCM2), but with important regional differences, particularly in the tropics. Some divergence in future response occurs across scenarios for the regions considered, but marked drying in the mid-USA and southern Europe and significantly wetter conditions for South Asia, in June-July-August, are robust and significant.
Results are presented from the latest version of the Hadley Centre climate model, HadAM3 (Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model
version 3). It represents a significant improvement over the previous version, HadAM2b. This is demonstrated using a series
of ten year integrations with AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) boundary conditions. The work covers three
aspects of model performance: (1) it shows the improvements in the mean climate in changing from HadAM2b to HadAM3; (2) it
demonstrates that the model now compares well with observations and (3) it isolates the impacts of new physical parametrizations.
Using a high-resolution climate model, we are able to quantify the influence of greenhouse-gas-induced global warming upon heavy or extended precipitation episodes that inflict catastrophic flooding. We find that an increase in the amount of precipitation that exceeds the 95th percentile is very likely in many areas of Europe, despite a possible reduction in average summer precipitation over a substantial part of the continent. Our results indicate that episodes of severe flooding may become more frequent, despite a general trend towards drier summer conditions.
Simulated temperature and precipitation changes over western Europe for a scenario of doubled atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are presented. The simulations are performed using a Limited Area Model LAM (RegCM2) nested into a General Circulation Model (ECHAM3). Both model components are operated at very high spatial resolutions — approximately 120 km for the GCM and 20 km for the LAM; the LAM domain encompasses a region of 1100 1100 km squared. Climatologies for five January and five July periods have been simulated. Average surface (2 m) temperatures are found to increase by 1.4 K in winter (January) and 3.9 K in summer (July); this latter figure is, however, largely dependent on a positive bias in the summer temperature fields of the driving GCM. Average precipitation changes are generally small in absolute values, but exhibit considerable spatial variability. Large precipitation amounts are seen to be shifted towards higher elevations with a corresponding reduction in the upwind areas. The results are discussed taking into account the predictive skill of the modelling system, which is derived from comparing the simulated present day temperature and precipitation fields to the corresponding climatological information. A method is introduced to assess the reliability of climate scenario predictions — such as those discussed here — on the basis of this predictive skill.
How will the world's climate change in the coming century? The answer to this question depends on how human societies develop in terms of demographics and economic development, technological change, energy supply and demand, and land use change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios describes new scenarios of the future, and predicts greenhouse gas emissions associated with such developments. The scenarios provide the basis for future assessments of climate change and possible response strategies. This volume is the most comprehensive and state-of-the-art assessment available of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, and provides invaluable information for industry, policy-makers, environmental organizations, and researchers in global change, technology, engineering and economics.
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- M Deque