American Attitudes toward the Middle East

Abstract

Data from two UMD Critical Issues Polls conducted in September and October 2019 (Questionnaire: https://criticalissues.umd.edu/sites/criticalissues.umd.edu/files/UMCIP%20Middle%20East%20Questionnaire.pdf) (Full PowerPoint: https://criticalissues.umd.edu/sites/criticalissues.umd.edu/files/UMCIP%20Middle%20East%20PowerPoint.pdf)

Full text

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Shibley Telhami, Director
Stella Rouse, Associate Director
American Attitudes toward the Middle East
Survey Methodology
(September 2019)
The survey was carried out September 3-20, 2019 online from a nationally representative sample
of Nielsen Scarborough's probability-based panel, originally recruited by mail and telephone
using a random sample of adults provided by Survey Sampling International. The poll was
conducted among a national poll of 3,016 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 1.78%.
Overall, the sample was adjusted to reflect population estimates (Scarborough USA+/Gallup) for
Americans. The survey variables balanced through weighting were: age, gender, race/ethnicity,
household income, level of education, census regional division, and political party affiliation.
Valuable assistance was provided by Scott Willoth, Tisha Jett, Lauren Morris, and January Lee
from Nielsen Scarborough. Brittany Kyser, Connor Kopchick, Tamya Anderson, Molly Schreier,
and Anthony Richardson were particularly helpful.
Note: Percentages may not always add to one-hundred due to rounding.

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Middle East Policy
Now we would like to ask you specifically about American foreign policy toward the Middle
East.
Q38. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. government is handling Iran?
[RANDOMIZE]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Approve 76% 13% 33% 42%
2. Disapprove 21 82 58 53
Refused 3 5 9 5
Q39. In comparison to three years ago, do you think the odds of the U.S. going to war with Iran
are higher, lower, or the same? [RANDOMLY REVERSE]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Higher 27% 65% 32% 45%
2. Lower 16 3 5 9
3. The same 39 14 30 26
4. Unsure/Don’t know [FIXED] 18 18 30 19
Refused 1 1 3 1
Q40. What do you believe the Trump administration’s most important goal in its policy toward
Iran is currently? [RANDOMIZE]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons 53% 13% 18% 30%
2. Change Iranian behavior in the region 13 2 6 7
3. Change the regime 3 2 3 3
4. Undo Barack Obama’s policy 13 45 16 28
5. Look tough at home 2 14 12 9
6. Please key Middle Eastern allies such as 4 10 8 7
Israel and Saudi Arabia
7. Other/Don’t know [FIXED] 11 14 35 15
Refused 1 1 4 1

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Q40b. Which one of the following is closest to your view? [RANDOMIZE]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. To achieve its current goal vis-à-vis Iran, 34% 9% 21% 21%
the U.S. should be prepared to go to war.
2. The current goals of U.S. policy do not warrant 63 89 70 76
waging war. The U.S. must rely on other means
short of war.
Refused 4 2 9 4

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Shibley Telhami, Director
Stella Rouse, Associate Director
American Attitudes toward the Middle East
Survey Methodology
(October 2019)
The survey was carried out October 4-10, 2019 online from a nationally representative sample of
Nielsen Scarborough's probability-based panel, originally recruited by mail and telephone using
a random sample of adults provided by Survey Sampling International. The poll was conducted
among a national poll of 1,260 respondents (958 for the Syria question), with a margin of error
of +/- 2.76%. Overall, the sample was adjusted to reflect population estimates (Scarborough
USA+/Gallup) for Americans. The survey variables balanced through weighting were: age,
gender, race/ethnicity, household income, level of education, census regional division, and
political party affiliation.
Valuable assistance was provided by Scott Willoth, Tisha Jett, Lauren Morris, and January Lee
from Nielsen Scarborough. Brittany Kyser, Connor Kopchick, Tamya Anderson, Molly Schreier,
and Anthony Richardson were particularly helpful.
Note: Percentages may not always add to one-hundred due to rounding.

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Afghanistan – ALL RESPONDENTS
55. If you had to guess, which would you say is the longest war in American history? [Open-
ended text box]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Afghanistan/Taliban 39% 44% 35% 41%
2. Vietnam 11 11 8 11
3. Civil War/ War Between the States 5 7 4 6
4. World War II 4 5 7 5
5. War on Terror, Terrorism (unless specified 6 3 4 4
other country)
6. Iraq 3 4 0 3
7. Middle East 4 3 2 3
8. Cold War <1 2 2 1
9. Current War, one we’re in now (only if they 1 <1 2 1
give no other specification)
10. Iran/Persian (War) 1 2 1 1
11. Revolutionary War 1 <1 0 1
12. Korean War 2 2 1 2
13. World War I 2 1 4 2
14. War on Drugs 2 1 4 2
15. Gulf War, Desert Shield, Desert Storm 2 1 0 1
16. Iraq and Afghanistan 1 3 2 2
17. Wars following 9/11 (including “9/11”) 1 0 0 <1
18. Iran/Iraq <1 1 0 <1
19. Native American (including “War with a Native 1 0 0 1
American Tribe,” “fighting the Apache Indians,”
“Indian Wars”)
20. Other 6 5 10 6
21. None <1 0 0 <1
Refused 8 6 15 8

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Q56. As far as you know, which of the following best describes the role of the Taliban in
Afghanistan currently? [RANDOMIZE]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. They control the Afghan government. 11% 9% 11% 10%
2. They are part of the Afghan government. 10 7 6 8
3. They are rebels fighting the Afghan government. 55 57 51 55
4. They are just a key party in Afghanistan which 22 25 26 24
is not part of the government.
Refused 1 2 6 2
Q57. Do you think the U.S. should increase troops, maintain current troop levels, decrease
troops, or remove all troops from Afghanistan in the next year?
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Increase troops. 2% 5% 1% 3%
2. Maintain current troop levels. 34 38 22 34
3. Decrease troops. 23 21 26 23
4. Remove all troops by the end of the year. 23 19 28 22
5. Don’t know. 18 18 23 18
Refused <1 1 0 1
Q58. As you may know, the U.S. has started the reduction of military presence in Afghanistan,
with about half of the approximately 14,000 U.S. troops there set to begin returning home in the
near future. Based on what you know, do you support or oppose this action?
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Strongly support 40% 23% 37% 32%
2. Somewhat support 31 31 21 30
3. Somewhat oppose 16 25 13 20
4. Strongly oppose 6 8 6 7
5. Don’t know/No opinion 8 14 23 12
Refused 0 <1 1 <1

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Q59. Looking back, do you think it was a mistake or the correct choice to send U.S. troops to
Afghanistan in 2001?
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Mistake 27% 47% 29% 36%
2. Correct choice 49 29 31 38
3. Not sure 24 24 40 26
Refused <1 <1 0 <1
Q60. Do you think America’s military involvement in Afghanistan has been successful or
unsuccessful in obtaining America’s strategic objectives?
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Very successful 4% 3% 4% 3%
2. Successful 24 11 7 16
3. Neither successful nor unsuccessful. 38 38 41 38
4. Unsuccessful 19 28 18 23
5. Very unsuccessful 6 13 13 10
6. Don’t know 9 6 17 9
Refused <1 1 0 1
Q61. [IF Q60= 4 OR 5, ASK Q61] Which of the following factors do you think is MOST
important in explaining the reason for failure in Afghanistan? [RANDOMIZE]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. It was futile to send troops to fight the 8% 16% 14% 14%
war on terrorism under any circumstances.
2. The threat of terrorism from al-Qaeda requires 2 5 9 4
principally non-military means.
3. The threat posed by al-Qaeda did not require an 13 8 16 11
all-out war on Afghanistan.
4. The intervention in Iraq, which reduced the American 15 19 16 17
ability to fight in Afghanistan effectively.
5. Our inability to build effective alternative structures to 34 39 28 36
the existing political and social order in Afghanistan.
6. The U.S. should have never stayed this long and should 25 11 16 16
have left immediately after the collapse of the Taliban
regime in Afghanistan.

8
Refused 3 2 0 2
Q62A. Regardless of whether our intervention in Afghanistan was justified or not, do you
believe that the U.S. has an obligation towards the Afghan government and the many segments
of society who were impacted by that intervention?
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Yes 30% 60% 36% 44%
2. No 42 18 36 30
3. Not sure 27 23 28 25
Refused <1 <1 0 <1
[IF Q62A=1, THEN ASK Q62B] Q62B. What form should our responsibility take?
[RANDOMIZE CODES 1-4]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. A limited military role 38% 28% 27% 30%
2. Using our leverage in the negotiations to 46 43 45 44
protect the interests of affected parties in Afghanistan
3. Continued financial support 6 13 6 10
4. Other/don’t know [FIXED] 11 15 22 15
Refused 1 2 0 1
Q63. Do you think the U.S. military should be responsible for ensuring that Afghanistan has a
liberal democratic government, one that protects things like fair and open elections for all
citizens, equal rights for women, and equal access to education for all?
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Yes 22% 33% 14% 26%
2. No 63 40 49 51
3. Not sure 14 26 35 22
Refused 1 1 1 1

9
Q64. If the central government of Afghanistan in Kabul, the capital, does not have control over
all of the territory of Afghanistan, does that pose a threat to the safety of the United States?
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Yes, it does pose a threat. 46% 41% 28% 42%
2. No, it does not pose a threat. 24 28 23 26
3. Not sure. 29 29 49 31
Refused 1 2 0 1
Q65. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the opinion that the U.S. should negotiate with
the Taliban to end the war in Afghanistan?
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Strongly agree. 12% 12% 15% 12%
2. Somewhat agree. 28 35 19 30
3. Somewhat disagree. 22 18 16 19
4. Strongly disagree. 28 17 22 22
5. Not sure. 11 18 27 16
Refused <1 <1 0 <1
Q66. [IF Q65= 1 OR 2, ASK Q66] On a scale of 1-5, do you support the following forms of
relations with the Taliban? Indicate your support below, with 1 indicating “strongly oppose” and
5 indicating “strongly support.”
Q66A (1). A full peace agreement and normal relations.
Rep Dem Ind Total
(1) Strongly oppose 2% 10% 2% 6%
2 8 7 10 8
3 32 23 20 27
4 31 27 25 28
(5) Strongly support 27 32 43 31
Refused 0 2 0 1

10
Q66B (2). Inviting the Taliban to the United States.
Rep Dem Ind Total
(1) Strongly oppose 56% 48% 45% 51%
2 20 23 16 21
3 14 21 25 19
4 9 5 10 7
(5) Strongly support 1 1 0 1
Refused 0 3 4 2
Q66C (3). Being prepared to provide financial assistance to Afghanistan even with the Taliban
being part of the government.
Rep Dem Ind Total
(1) Strongly oppose 46% 16% 40% 30%
2 24 19 6 19
3 21 35 36 30
4 8 25 13 17
(5) Strongly support 1 3 0 2
Refused 2 3 4 2

11
Q67. It was recently revealed that a meeting had been planned at Camp David between senior
Taliban representatives, Afghan government officials, and the U.S. President and his staff, to
occur on September 8, 2019 (later canceled). Which of the following comes closest to your
initial reaction: [RANDOMIZE]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. I support an agreement with the Taliban if possible 40% 42% 36% 41%
but do not support the Taliban being honored on
American soil given their role in hosting al-Qaeda.
2. I am opposed to an agreement with the Taliban whether 32 29 35 31
or not they come to the U.S.
3. I am open to the Taliban coming to the U.S. if that’s 7 12 9 10
what it takes to reach an agreement but object to the
timing so close to the anniversary of 9/11.
4. I am open to the Taliban coming to the U.S. if that’s 18 15 12 16
what it takes to reach an agreement, and have no
problem with the timing.
Refused 2 2 9 3
Q69. Assume that a peace agreement between the U.S. and the Taliban is reached, and the U.S.
withdraws all troops from Afghanistan. If the Taliban continues their war with the Afghan
government and emerge victorious, capturing Kabul and other major cities, how much do you
support the following actions? Indicate your support below, with 1 indicating “strongly
disapprove” and 5 indicating “strongly approve.”
Q69A (1). Military action.
Rep Dem Ind Total
(1) Strongly disapprove 20% 24% 22% 22%
2 13 16 14 14
3 25 31 38 29
4 18 14 10 16
(5) Strongly approve 21 11 9 15
Refused 3 5 7 4

12
Q69B (2). Impose economic sanctions on the Taliban.
Rep Dem Ind Total
(1) Strongly disapprove 6% 5% 7% 5%
2 2 7 3 4
3 15 24 34 21
4 15 18 9 16
(5) Strongly approve 59 43 42 50
Refused 3 4 6 4
Q69C (3). Engage in international diplomatic efforts
Rep Dem Ind Total
(1) Strongly disapprove 13% 6% 6% 9%
2 5 3 5 4
3 24 16 26 20
4 24 21 22 22
(5) Strongly approve 32 50 35 40
Refused 3 5 7 4
Q69D (4). Do nothing.
Rep Dem Ind Total
(1) Strongly disapprove 38% 37% 31% 37%
2 19 18 12 17
3 23 26 34 26
4 7 8 9 8
(5) Strongly approve 9 7 9 8
Refused 4 5 4 5

13
Middle East Policy
Now we would like to ask you specifically about American foreign policy toward the Middle
East.
ALL RESPONDENTS
Q75. How much have you heard about BDS, or the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions
movement aimed at Israel? [RANDOMLY REVERSE]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. A great deal 8% 4% 6% 6%
2. A good amount 17 12 11 14
3. A little 33 28 17 29
4. I have not heard about it 42 55 64 51
Refused 1 1 1 1
[Ask only if Q75 = 1, 2, or 3]
Q76. Based on what you have heard, do you support or oppose BDS, or the Boycott, Divestment,
and Sanctions movement? [RANDOMLY REVERSE]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Support strongly 2% 14% 10% 8%
2. Support somewhat 6 34 15 18
3. Neither support nor oppose [FIXED] 15 37 40 26
4. Oppose somewhat 9 11 4 9
5. Oppose strongly 67 4 31 38
Refused 2 0 0 1

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[Ask Q77A, Q77B, and Q78 if Q75 = 1, 2, or 3]
Q77a. Tell me how much you agree or disagree with the following statement:
BDS is a legitimate, peaceful way of opposing Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories.
Inspired by the South African anti-apartheid movement, BDS urges action to pressure Israel to
comply with international law. Opposing Israeli policy does not equal anti-Semitism.
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Strongly disagree 55% 6% 22% 32%
2. Somewhat disagree 14 8 10 11
3. Neither agree nor disagree 17 22 27 20
4. Somewhat agree 9 24 10 15
5. Strongly agree 4 38 31 21
Refused 1 1 0 1
Q77b. Tell me how much you agree or disagree with the following statement:
Regardless of how BDS defines itself, it is an anti-Israel organization attempting to weaken
Israel and to undermine its legitimacy. Some of its supporters are opponents of Israel’s very
existence and may even be anti-Semitic.
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Strongly disagree 3% 30% 21% 16%
2. Somewhat disagree 4 19 4 10
3. Neither agree nor disagree 16 29 36 23
4. Somewhat agree 13 17 19 15
5. Strongly agree 63 3 19 34
Refused 2 2 0 2
Q78. Now tell me, which of the following is closer to your view? [RANDOMIZE]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. BDS is a legitimate, peaceful way of opposing Israeli 13% 77% 48% 42%
occupation of the Palestinian territories. Inspired by
the South African anti-apartheid movement, BDS urges
action to pressure Israel to comply with international law.

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Opposing Israeli policy does not equal anti-Semitism.
2. Regardless of how BDS defines itself, it is an 85 19 42 54
anti-Israel organization attempting to weaken
Israel and to undermine its legitimacy. Some
of its supporters are opponents of Israel’s very
existence and may even be anti-Semitic.
Refused 2 4 10 4
ALL RESPONDENTS
Q79. Which of the following is closer to your view? [RANDOMIZE]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. We should SUPPORT laws that penalize people who 31% 14% 16% 22%
boycott Israel because these laws help protect Israel.
2. We should OPPOSE laws that penalize people who 62 80 76 72
boycott Israel because these laws infringe on the
Constitutional right to free speech and peaceful protest.
Refused 7 6 8 7
Iran – ALL RESPONDENTS
Q80. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. government is handling Iran?
[RANDOMIZE]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Approve 71% 13% 32% 40%
2. Disapprove 24 86 59 56
Refused 5 1 9 4
Q81. In comparison to three years ago, do you think the odds of the U.S. going to war with Iran
are higher, lower, or the same? [RANDOMLY REVERSE]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Higher 30% 63% 33% 45%
2. Lower 16 7 5 10

16
3. The same 39 16 26 27
4. Unsure/Don’t know [FIXED] 16 14 36 17
Refused 0 <1 0 <1
Q82A. What do you believe the Trump administration’s most important goal in its policy toward
Iran is currently? [RANDOMIZE]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons 45% 8% 20% 25%
2. Change Iranian behavior in the region 17 4 11 11
3. Change the regime 2 1 4 2
4. Undo Barack Obama’s policy 16 53 18 33
5. Look tough at home 2 13 10 8
6. Please key Middle Eastern allies such as Israel 5 9 9 7
and Saudi Arabia
7. Other/Don’t know [FIXED] 12 11 28 13
Refused <1 1 1 1
Q82B. Which of the following is closer to your view? [RANDOMIZE]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. To achieve its current goal vis-à-vis Iran, the 32% 10% 17% 20%
U.S. should be prepared to go to war.
2. The current goals of U.S. policy do not warrant 64 88 76 76
waging war. The U.S. must rely on other means
short of war.
Refused 4 2 7 4

17
Q83. On September 14, an attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil fields cut Saudi oil production by half,
accounting for 5% of the world’s oil supply, for several weeks. Yemen’s Houthi rebels, fighting
Saudi Arabia, took responsibility for the attack, and the United States and some European
countries blamed Iran. Which one of the following is closest to your view about the evidence
presented to the public so far about Iran’s responsibility?
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Very convincing 35% 8% 14% 20%
2. Somewhat convincing 43 42 41 42
3. Somewhat unconvincing 13 30 17 21
4. Very unconvincing 4 17 20 12
Refused 4 3 8 4
Q84. If sufficient evidence emerges that Iran is responsible, should the U.S. consider a military
action in response?
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. Yes 45% 21% 25% 32%
2. No 53 77 70 66
Refused 2 2 5 2
Q85. Tell me how important you think the following factors are in explaining the escalation in
the Gulf region that has endangered the oil trade:
Q85A (1). The nature of Iran’s regime
Rep Dem Ind Total
(1) Not important at all 2% 3% 3% 2%
2 4 9 7 7
Neither important nor unimportant 17 34 46 28
4 37 34 26 34
(5) Strongly approve 36 15 15 24
Refused 4 6 4 5

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Q85B (2). The war in Yemen
Rep Dem Ind Total
(1) Not important at all 6% 6% 3% 6%
2 6 7 16 8
Neither important nor unimportant 45 36 39 40
4 31 39 28 34
(5) Strongly approve 7 8 10 8
Refused 5 4 4 4
Q85C (3). The U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal (the JCPOA)
Rep Dem Ind Total
(1) Not important at all 14% 6% 4% 9%
2 6 5 9 6
Neither important nor unimportant 31 25 46 30
4 21 26 27 24
(5) Strongly approve 24 33 11 27
Refused 4 4 4 4
Q85D (4). U.S. imposition of new sanctions on Iran,
including on its oil exports
Rep Dem Ind Total
(1) Not important at all 3% 2% 1% 3%
2 5 5 6 5
Neither important nor unimportant 21 25 35 25
4 34 40 36 37
(5) Strongly approve 32 23 19 27
Refused 5 5 4 4

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Q86. Now tell me, which one of the above do you think is most important? [KEEP IN SAME
ORDER AS Q85]
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. The nature of Iran’s regime 31% 14% 23% 22%
2. The war in Yemen 4 5 6 5
3. The U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 20 51 24 35
Iran Nuclear Deal (the JCPOA)
4. U.S. imposition of new sanctions on Iran, 40 26 41 34
including on its oil exports
Refused 5 4 7 5
Q94. As you may know, the United States has recently announced the withdrawal of its forces
from northern Syria, ahead of a Turkish military campaign there. President Trump explained the
move by saying: "it is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them
tribal, and bring our soldiers home." Critics have argued that it was the wrong move because it
leaves our Kurdish allies in northern Syria vulnerable and gives the upper hand to Turkey which,
although a member of NATO, is considered by some as a foe whose aims have been questioned.
Tell me how you feel about the move to withdraw U.S. forces from northern Syria:
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. I support it 42% 8% 22% 24%
2. I oppose it 23 66 32 44
3. I'm indifferent 24 11 13 17
4. Don't know 11 15 33 16