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Bilgi Yönetim Süreci ve Stratejik Öngörü Kesişiminde Bir Yaklaşım: Ufuk Taraması (An Approach At The Intersection Of Knowledge Management Process And Strategic Foresight: Horizon Scanning)
Abstract
Uncertainty is not desirable at organizational level. Therefore, businesses can handle the intricacy caused by their internal and external environments solely when they combine knowledge management and strategic foresight processes. In this study, horizon scanning has been defined as a strategic foresight approach and its relationship with knowledge management has been displayed. This study also emphasizes the fact that while this forecasting method has commonly been used in many of the European countries in public and private sectors, it has not been investigated and employed in Turkey. Moreover, how the horizon scanning is applied and its organizational effects are explained. In addition, in the era of industry 4.0, along with foresight operations and knowledge management, horizon scanning has been considered as a strategic approach that will contribute to the businesses to catch up with the future.
Confronted with an increasingly interconnected and dynamically changing world, governments are developing new ways of thinking ahead and planning strategically to cope better with future threats and opportunities. This report on Horizon Scanning in Government presents an innovative approach to support governments in dealing with uncertainties and in envisaging and realizing the policies they desire. It outlines the concept and purpose of horizon scanning, reviews the experiences of the United Kingdom, Singapore, and the Netherlands, and develops perspectives for the establishment of horizon scanning in Switzerland.
“Scenario Planning as a Foresight Method” (in Turkish) KÖK Research Journal, V. XI, No 2 (Winter 2009) Pp.133-167
One can say that, scenario planning method, as one of strategic foresight methods, has gradually increasing attributed importance. The purpose of this paper is to develop an algorithm based, tangible and theoretically supported application proposal for this method for practitioners of this method. The first part of the work is devoted to a short analysis on the relative locus of the method with respect to other strategic foresight methods. In this part, after mentioning the types of foresight methods briefly, the scenario planning, is introduced from the historical and literature, and compared with the others.
In the second part, the concepts that are related to the method is explained, while the Turkish names of the terms are tried to be synchronized with the official terms that are used in Turkish War Academy, which are emerged during the post study of a seminar on the same method. In the last part, an algorithm is developed and its steps are explained.
Managers and policy makers are continually working toward a desired future within a context of rapid and turbulent change. To be effective in this context, they must look ahead to anticipate emerging trends, issues, opportunities, and threats. Horizon scanning is a foresight method that can help managers and policy makers develop and maintain a broad and externally focused forward view to anticipate and align decisions with both emerging (near-term) and long-term futures. This article reports on the design and early stage development and implementation of a horizon scanning system established for the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Strategic Foresight Group, and developed cooperatively with the University of Houston Foresight Program. The goal of the project is to develop an ongoing horizon scanning system as an input to developing environmental foresight: insight into future environmental challenges and opportunities, and the ability to apply that insight to prepare for a sustainable future. In addition, the horizon scanning system is supported by volunteers from within the Forest Service. By including participants from throughout the Forest Service, the project seeks to foster a culture of foresight within the organization, and eventually to develop a more forward looking organizational structure for the USFS and other natural resource management agencies. Lessons learned from the experience to date are shared as well as future challenges for keeping the horizon scanning system in good working order—current, relevant, and consistent.
This paper documents the Intuitive Logics scenario planning process and its relationship with horizon scanning activity in order to evaluate the separate and joint usefulness of these methods for anticipating the future. The specific objectives of this paper are to: (i) identify and differentiate scenario planning and horizon scanning methodologies (ii) discuss & evaluate their analytic underpinnings, and (iii) critically appraise their separate and combined value and effectiveness in relation to enhancing organizational preparedness for the future. Our analysis culminates with specifications to (iv) enhance the identification of 'weak signals' in Horizon Scanning by utilizing a systematically broadened range of both negatively-valenced and positively-valenced scenario storylines.
zet Büyük veri, özellikle 2000'li yıllardaki bilgi patlaması sonrası ortaya çıkan bir kavramdır. Yaşadığımız dünyada, bireylere, şirketlere, ekonomilere, ülkelere ait veriler, kayıtlar vb. her an yeniden ve hızla üretilmeye devam edilmektedir. İşletmeler bu yeni ve yüklü miktardaki veriye kayıtsız kalamazlar. Aksine topladıkları veriyi, müşterilerine ve çalışanlarına değer yaratacak şekilde kullanmak zorundadırlar. Bu çalışmada teorik olarak büyük verinin tanımlanması, işletmeleri büyük veri ile ilgili nelerin beklediğinin kısaca ifade edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır.
In this article the value of Twitter data analysis for a strategic foresight exercise is discussed. The article offers an overview of Twitter’s basic functionalities, previous Twitter research and related studies on using Twitter in foresight projects to date. Based on this knowledge the case of the EU research project “Foresight and Modelling for European Health Policy and Regulations“(FRESHER) is used to conduct a Twitter data analysis in three steps: an analysis of web-links to get insights into the content spread via Twitter, a social network analysis to define central actors in a Twitter debate, and a hashtag-analysis to find out which topics are discussed and to support the identification of drivers of noncommunicable diseases. The article shows the benefit a Twitter data analysis provides for the FRESHER project and reveals implications for future research in this field.
Following work done in the UK, Canada and now starting across Europe,1 there appears to be renewed interest in charting the boundaries of what to expect between 2010 and 2025 as the character of the 21st century begins to become firmly established. What are the shaping forces, or sources of change and what might be their impacts, particularly where these may create entirely new challenges and opportunities?Futures experts (attendees of the FTA 2008 Conference) were invited to state their opinions on these questions by considering the trends, drivers, wilds cards, discontinuities and weak signals likely to shape the future through the Big Picture Survey. The survey was launched 6 months prior to the Conference. More than 250 responses were submitted by the Conference date. The results collected were synthesised and presented back to the attendees in a plenary presentation by the authors.The current paper aims to clarify the concepts first by suggesting definitions and discussing the distinctions between them. The paper then presents the rationales of conducting the Big Picture Survey (BPS), presents its methodology and discusses the results of the survey in a greater extent.
Twitter is a popular micro-blogging service and platform for public real-time communication. Concerning foresight, the value of Twitter has not been discussed or examined yet. Here this article concentrates on and considers different applications to examine how to use Twitter in foresight exercises. First, Twitter is discussed as a data source for retrieving input to roadmapping or scenarios. Therefore, an analysis framework is introduced and illustrated for the case of #quantifiedself. Second, options are outlined how to interact with a global network of people using Twitter as communication platform, e.g., for being used during foresight workshops or receiving input for scenario development. As the results show, both, the monitoring of topics and technologies, but also the active user engagement, are supported. In summary, Twitter is an opportunity to extend the considered data sources and to increase the number of involved stakeholder views. While the reliability of Twitter data still requires critical reflection, this article implies many new research opportunities.
’Uncertainty creates winners and losers. Organisations that want to survive have to adapt.’ Kees van der Heijden, Professor
of General and Strategic Management at the Graduate Business School of Strathclyde University, Glasgow [1].
Horizon scanning is the practice of monitoring the business environment, and tracking the changes in the environment that
could have an impact on individual businesses. Understanding change in the business environment is a key element to understanding
and managing business risk.