Content uploaded by Emily Osborne
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Emily Osborne on Dec 20, 2018
Content may be subject to copyright.
A preview of the PDF is not available
Arctic Report Card 2018
Abstract and Figures
The Arctic Report Card (hereafter 'ARC') has been issued annually since 2006. It is a timely and peer-reviewed source for clear, reliable and concise environmental information on the current state of different components of the Arctic environmental system relative to historical records. The ARC is intended for a wide audience, including scientists, teachers, students, decision-makers, and the general public interested in the Arctic environment and science. ARC 2018 contains 14 contributions (we call them essays) prepared by an international team of 81 researchers from 12 different countries. As in previous years, independent peer review of ARC 2018 was organized by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) of the Arctic Council.
Figures - uploaded by Emily Osborne
Author content
All figure content in this area was uploaded by Emily Osborne
Content may be subject to copyright.
... These maxima are several degrees above the maximum T a values that several aridzone passerine birds are able to tolerate (125). These challenges are not confined to hot deserts; warming in the Arctic is proceeding at twice the rate observed over the rest of the globe, and warm extremes in these regions, although modest in terms of absolute temperatures, may have catastrophic consequences for species that are adapted to function at temperatures 10 -20°C lower than have been recently observed (100). Unless urgent, concerted global action is taken, climate change may well create a future where many parts of the planet are habitable only for mammals and birds that have been genetically engineered to modify their heat balance (e.g., insulation, metabolic rate) or for enhanced heat tolerance. ...
Understanding the heat tolerances of small mammals and birds has taken on new urgency with the advent of climate change. Here, we review heat tolerance limits, pathways of evaporative heat dissipation that permit the defense of body temperature during heat exposure, and mechanisms operating at tissue, cellular, and molecular levels.
In the Arctic, air temperatures are increasing and sea ice is declining, resulting in larger waves and a longer open water season, all of which intensify the thaw and erosion of ice-rich coasts. Climate change has been shown to increase the rate of Arctic coastal erosion, causing problems for Arctic cultural heritage, existing industrial, military, and civil infrastructure, as well as changes in nearshore biogeochemistry. Numerical models that reproduce historical and project future Arctic erosion rates are necessary to understand how further climate change will affect these problems, and no such model yet exists to simulate the physics of erosion on a pan-Arctic scale. We have coupled a bathystrophic storm surge model to a simplified physical erosion model of a permafrost coastline. This Arctic erosion model, called ArcticBeach v1.0, is a first step toward a physical parameterization of Arctic shoreline erosion for larger-scale models. It is forced by wind speed and direction, wave period and height, sea surface temperature, all of which are masked during times of sea ice cover near the coastline. Model tuning requires observed historical retreat rates (at least one value), as well as rough nearshore bathymetry. These parameters are already available on a pan-Arctic scale. The model is validated at three study sites at 1) Drew Point (DP), Alaska, 2) Mamontovy Khayata (MK), Siberia, and 3) Veslebogen Cliffs, Svalbard. Simulated cumulative retreat rates for DP and MK respectively (169 and 170 m) over the time periods studied at each site (2007–2016, and 1995–2018) are found to the same order of magnitude as observed cumulative retreat (172 and 120 m). The rocky Veslebogen cliffs have small observed cumulative retreat rates (0.05 m over 2014–2016), and our model was also able to reproduce this same order of magnitude of retreat (0.08 m). Given the large differences in geomorphology between the study sites, this study provides a proof-of-concept that ArcticBeach v1.0 can be applied on very different permafrost coastlines. ArcticBeach v1.0 provides a promising starting point to project retreat of Arctic shorelines, or to evaluate historical retreat in places that have had few observations.
Arctic amplification (AA) - referring to the enhancement of near-surface air temperature change over the Arctic relative to lower latitudes - is a prominent feature of climate change with important impacts on human and natural systems. In this review, we synthesize current understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms that can give rise to AA. These mechanisms include both local feedbacks and changes in poleward energy transport. Temperature and sea ice-related feedbacks are especially important for AA, since they are significantly more positive over the Arctic than at lower latitudes. Changes in energy transport by the atmosphere and ocean can also contribute to AA. These energy transport changes are tightly coupled with local feedbacks, and thus their respective contributions to AA should not be considered in isolation. It is here emphasized that the feedbacks and energy transport changes that give rise to AA are sensitively dependent on the state of the climate system itself. This implies that changes in the climate state will lead to changes in the strength of AA, with implications for past and future climate change.
Microbial communities in the coastal Arctic Ocean experience extreme variability in organic matter and inorganic nutrients driven by seasonal shifts in sea ice extent and freshwater inputs. Lagoons border more than half of the Beaufort Sea coast and provide important habitats for migratory fish and seabirds; yet, little is known about the planktonic food webs supporting these higher trophic levels. To investigate seasonal changes in bacterial and protistan planktonic communities, amplicon sequences of 16S and 18S rRNA genes were generated from samples collected during periods of ice-cover (April), ice break-up (June), and open water (August) from shallow lagoons along the eastern Alaska Beaufort Sea coast from 2011 through 2013. Protist communities shifted from heterotrophic to photosynthetic taxa (mainly diatoms) during the winter–spring transition, and then back to a heterotroph-dominated summer community that included dinoflagellates and mixotrophic picophytoplankton such as Micromonas and Bathycoccus. Planktonic parasites belonging to Syndiniales were abundant under ice in winter at a time when allochthonous carbon inputs were low. Bacterial communities shifted from coastal marine taxa (Oceanospirillaceae, Alteromonadales) to estuarine taxa (Polaromonas, Bacteroidetes) during the winter-spring transition, and then to oligotrophic marine taxa (SAR86, SAR92) in summer. Chemolithoautotrophic taxa were abundant under ice, including iron-oxidizing Zetaproteobacteria. These results suggest that wintertime Arctic bacterial communities capitalize on the unique biogeochemical gradients that develop below ice near shore, potentially using chemoautotrophic metabolisms at a time when carbon inputs to the system are low. Co-occurrence networks constructed for each season showed that under-ice networks were dominated by relationships between parasitic protists and other microbial taxa, while spring networks were by far the largest and dominated by bacteria-bacteria co-occurrences. Summer networks were the smallest and least connected, suggesting a more detritus-based food web less reliant on interactions among microbial taxa. Eukaryotic and bacterial community compositions were significantly related to trends in concentrations of stable isotopes of particulate organic carbon and nitrogen, among other physiochemical variables such as dissolved oxygen, salinity, and temperature. This suggests the importance of sea ice cover and terrestrial carbon subsidies in contributing to seasonal trends in microbial communities in the coastal Beaufort Sea.
The tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications are far-reaching because of global feedback effects between vegetation and climate. A better understanding of how environmental factors shape plant structure and function is crucial for predicting the consequences of environmental change for ecosystem functioning. Here we explore the biome-wide relationships between temperature, moisture and seven key plant functional traits both across space and over three decades of warming at 117 tundra locations. Spatial temperature-trait relationships were generally strong but soil moisture had a marked influence on the strength and direction of these relationships, highlighting the potentially important influence of changes in water availability on future trait shifts in tundra plant communities. Community height increased with warming across all sites over the past three decades, but other traits lagged far behind predicted rates of change. Our findings highlight the challenge of using space-for-time substitution to predict the functional consequences of future warming and suggest that functions that are tied closely to plant height will experience the most rapid change. They also reveal the strength with which environmental factors shape biotic communities at the coldest extremes of the planet and will help to improve projections of functional changes in tundra ecosystems with climate warming.
Arctic Ocean measurements reveal a near doubling of ocean heat content relative to the freezing temperature in the Beaufort Gyre halocline over the past three decades (1987–2017). This warming is linked to anomalous solar heating of surface waters in the northern Chukchi Sea, a main entryway for halocline waters to join the interior Beaufort Gyre. Summer solar heat absorption by the surface waters has increased fivefold over the same time period, chiefly because of reduced sea ice coverage. It is shown that the solar heating, considered together with subduction rates of surface water in this region, is sufficient to account for the observed halocline warming. Heat absorption at the basin margins and its subsequent accumulation in the ocean interior, therefore, have consequences for Beaufort Gyre sea ice beyond the summer season.
Understanding the influence of the Arctic troposphere on the climate at midlatitudes is critical for projecting the impacts of ongoing and anticipated Arctic changes such as Arctic amplification and rapid sea ice decline over the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, we analyze a suite of atmospheric model experiments, with and without atmospheric relaxation toward reanalysis data, to study the impacts of the Arctic troposphere on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation and climate variability. The Arctic troposphere is found to strongly impact the interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation and temperature over the midlatitude continents. The major mechanisms for the impacts of Arctic troposphere include the modulation of the large-scale atmospheric circulation, the associated heat transport over the continents, and the impacts on synoptic variations in the North Atlantic-European sector. The impact of the Arctic troposphere on the intensity of the Siberian High is an important factor for how the Arctic can influence temperature variability in south Siberia and East Asia. The trends in the Arctic troposphere in recent decades are closely linked to the recent winter cooling in Northern Eurasia. These recent cooling trends are not driven by the trends in sea surface temperature/sea ice, tropical atmosphere, and the stratosphere. It is argued that the temperature trend pattern of warm Arctic-cold Eurasia is a manifestation of two possibly independent phenomena and the cooling trend is contributed to by the Arctic troposphere through impacting the large-scale atmospheric circulation, the atmospheric blocking frequency, and the intensity of the Siberian High.
Accelerated warming in the Arctic, as compared to the rest of the globe, might have profound impacts on mid-latitude weather. Most studies analyzing Arctic links to mid-latitude weather focused on winter, yet recent summers have seen strong reductions in sea-ice extent and snow cover, a weakened equator-to-pole thermal gradient and associated weakening of the mid-latitude circulation. We review the scientific evidence behind three leading hypotheses on the influence of Arctic changes on mid-latitude summer weather: Weakened storm tracks, shifted jet streams, and amplified quasi-stationary waves. We show that interactions between Arctic teleconnections and other remote and regional feedback processes could lead to more persistent hot-dry extremes in the mid-latitudes. The exact nature of these non-linear interactions is not well quantified but they provide potential high-impact risks for society.
Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2018 is a low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
The Antarctic sea ice extent has been slowly increasing contrary to expected trends due to global warming and results from coupled climate models. After a record high extent in 2012 the extent was even higher in 2014 when the magnitude exceeded 20 × 106 km2 for the first time during the satellite era. The positive trend is confirmed with newly reprocessed sea ice data that addressed inconsistency issues in the time series. The variability in sea ice extent and ice area was studied alongside surface ice temperature for the 34-yr period starting in 1981, and the results of the analysis show a strong correlation of −0.94 during the growth season and −0.86 during the melt season. The correlation coefficients are even stronger with a one-month lag in surface temperature at −0.96 during the growth season and −0.98 during the melt season, suggesting that the trend in sea ice cover is strongly influenced by the trend in surface temperature. The correlation with atmospheric circulation as represented by the southern annular mode (SAM) index appears to be relatively weak. A case study comparing the record high in 2014 with a relatively low ice extent in 2015 also shows strong sensitivity to changes in surface temperature. The results suggest that the positive trend is a consequence of the spatial variability of global trends in surface temperature and that the ability of current climate models to forecast sea ice trend can be improved through better performance in reproducing observed surface temperatures in the Antarctic region.
Lagoons provide critical habitats for many fishes, including whitefishes, which are a mainstay in many subsistence fisheries of Arctic Alaska rural communities. Despite their importance, little is known about the overwintering habits of whitefishes in Arctic Alaska due to the challenges associated with sampling during winter. We developed a habitat suitability (HS) model to understand the potential range of physical conditions that whitefishes experience during the Arctic winter, using three indicator lagoons that represent a range of environmental characteristics. The HS model was built using a three‐step approach. First, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) remote sensing identified areas of floating and bottomfast ice. Second, through in‐field groundtruthing, we confirmed the a) presence, and b) quality of liquid water (water depth, temperature, and dissolved oxygen) beneath the ice cover. Third, we assessed the suitability of that liquid water as habitat for whitefishes, based on published literature and expert interpretation of water quality parameters. InSAR determined that 0, 65.4, and 88.2% of the three lagoons were composed of floating ice, corresponding with areas of liquid water beneath a layer of ice. The HS model indicated that all three lagoons had reduced suitability as whitefish habitat in winter as compared to summer due to loss of habitat from the presence of bottomfast ice and a reduction of liquid water quality due to cold temperatures, high salinities and low dissolved oxygen levels. However, only the shallowest lagoon had lethal conditions and zero suitability as whitefish habitat. The methods outlined here provide a simple, cost‐effective method to identify habitats that consistently provide critical winter habitat and integrate remote sensing in a HS model framework.
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
