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Determinants of greenhouse gas emissions in industry and agricultural sectors in Turkey: Index decomposition analysis
Abstract
This study aims to analyze greenhouse gas emissions changes in industry and agricultural sectors by utilizing LMDI method over the period of 1990-2014 in Turkey. For this purpose, these changes have been decomposed to four factors (emissions-factor effect, intensity effect, structural effect and activity effect) generally accepted in the literature as factors affecting emissions. Analysis findings indicate that key determinants of greenhouse gas emissions in industry and agricultural sectors are energy intensity effect. On the other hand, according to the Decoupling Analyse, there is a same direction change between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions in Turkey between the years of 1990- 2010. After 2010, the rate of increase occuring in the economic growth is higher than the rate of increase occuring in greenhouse gas emissions, and thus, decouplin in seen between the variables.
... Scale effect was also the main determinant of the change in CO 2 emissions in manufacturing and agriculture. 6 Finally, Özçağ, Yılmaz, and Sofuoğlu (2017) investigated the determinants of GHG emissions in Turkey for manufacturing and agriculture sectors over the period 1990-2014. Their findings suggest that for both sectors energy intensity effect is the dominant effect explaining the changes in GHG emissions. ...
This paper investigates the sectoral background of the relationship between output growth and increases in GHG emissions in Turkey for the period 2003-2015 by focusing on manufacturing, energy and agriculture sectors which are responsible for approximately 70% of total emissions. In order to relate output growth with GHG emission changes, emission intensities of these sectors are calculated at NACE Rev. 2 two digit level. Findings reveal that five manufacturing industries increased their emission intensities and three of them, C20, C23 and C24, are the highest greenhouse gas emitters under manufacturing industry. Another important finding for the manufacturing industry is that there is a possible association between technology levels of industries and their GHG emissions. For the energy sector, findings suggest that the change in energy mix in favor of natural gas and increased energy production from renewable sources are possible causes of the decreased emission intensity. Agriculture is found to be the only sector that increased its GHG emission intensity over the period. Increased emission intensities for methane and nitrous oxide, which might be stemmed from the increases in the number of animals and nitrogen nutrient surplus, are the main sources of this overall increase.
Global warming caused by greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions has become a paramount problem for all countries to solve. The construction industry emits 36 percent of the GHG in all sectors globally. China is the largest carbon emitter in the world, and Jiangsu province has been used as a test bed for reforming and developing modern construction industry in China. The aim of the study is to explore the driving factors of the total carbon emissions from the construction industry (CECI) in the provincial region using a hybrid Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model. The findings of the study indicate that: 1) Indirect and operational carbon emissions account for the largest proportion (52.22% and 46.02% in 2016 respectively); 2) The driving factors of CECI in Jiangsu province are the area factor (contribution from 2005-2016 is 100.22%) and the output value intensity factor (86.56%) while the restraining factor is the carbon emission intensity (-80.35%). Discussion and implicated policies, such as improving the energy efficiency of related industries and using green building materials have been elaborated at the end of the study. The decomposition and calculation method presented in this paper provides a useful tool for policymakers to evaluate carbon emissions of a province or state and formulate appropriate carbon policies to reduce emissions and promote low-carbon development in a region.
While the technological capacity and efforts of developed and some developing countries as a result of R&D activities position these countries among the high-technology product exporting countries, it is seen that developing countries that don't have adequate technological infrastructure and don't attach importance to R&D activities are among the countries that import technology and high technology products at higher costs. The technological knowledge and skills discovered as a result of the increase in the intensity of R&D activities affect economic growth positively by leading to new high-tech products purchased in international markets. This study aims to investigate the relationship between Turkey's high-tech exports economic growth. For this purpose, ARDL bounds testing was carried out to predict the relationships between the variables using the data on high-tech exports and GDP variables of Turkey for the 1989-2016 period. As a result of the analysis, it was found that a 1% increase in high technology exports increased the economic growth by approximately 0.44% in the long term.
The importance of technology and research and development (R&D) on economic development through international trade has been discussed in many studies. However, the empirical studies focusing on the role of high technology exports has been limited. The study aims at filling this gap by evaluating the relationship between high technology exports and GDP per capita levels with structural unit root tests and cointegration methodologies for Turkey and South Korea for the 1989-2014 period. The following hypothesis is evaluated: by increasing high technology manufactured goods’ exports, countries could increase their GDP per capita which also requires increased R&D that translates itself as high technology manufactured exports. The empirical methodology is as follows: both GDP per capita and high-tech exports variables are tested with traditional ADF, PP unit root and KPSS stationarity tests. The series are further evaluated with Zivot-Andrews single break and Lee-Strazicich two break unit root tests. The structural break tests are necessary; it is well-known that structural breaks lead to biased results in the traditional unit root and additionally in the cointegration tests. Lastly, both variables are tested for cointegration with Engle-Granger and Johansen tests by incorporating the break dates as exogenous dummy variables. The estimated models are further checked for parameter instability with CUSUM type tests. The results obtained for Turkey and South Korea are slightly different: i. both variables are cointegrated for both countries; ii. For South Korea, the positive impact of high-tech exports on GDP cannot be rejected in the long and short run; ii. This conclusion cannot be obtained for Turkey, iii. the parameter estimates for Turkey hint a limited positive effect of high tech exports in the short-run only. The results suggest that, in the future, Turkey should increase the investments in human capital and R&D directed to high tech exports to which could accelerate the economic growth.
The aim of this paper is to examine the long-run relationship between research & development (R & D) , innovation and economic growth in Turkey and 15 EU countries. In this study, per capita R & D expenditures, number of patents and GDP per capita are used as measures of R & D, innovation and growth respectively. The relationship between these variables is analyzed by applying General Method of Moments (GMM) approach which is developed by Arellano and Bond (1991). As a result of the analysis, lagged value of the dependent variable and R & D expenditures are detected as significant at 1 % significance level while number of patents is detected as significant at 10 % significance level. A 10 % increase in R & D expenditures leads to a 3.27 % increase in GDP per capita while a % 10 increase in number of patents brings about a 0.77 % increase in GDP per capita. According to these results, R & D expenditures are determined as four times more efficient than number of patents. Consequently, we can reliably state that there exist positive and significant relationships from R & D expenditures and number of patents to economic growth.
zet: Bu araştınnada "yatınm-gelişme yolu" (investment-deveLopment path) yaklaşımından faydalanılarak Türkiye'nin 1980-2002 yıllan arasındaki net dolaysız yabancı sermaye yatınm pozisyonu ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır. Yapılan analizlerde Türkiye'nin n. aşamada yer aLan bir ülke oldu~u belirlenmiştir. Türkiye 1980-2002 yılları arasında net yatırım alan bir ülke olmasına ra~men, özellikle 1990' lı yıllarda başLayan dolaysız yabancı sennaye yatırınu çıkışları da dikkati çekmektedir. Bu e~iLim teorik oLarak ll. aşama ülkeleri için yapılan tespit.1ere uygundur. Abstract: Inward and outward foreign direct investment of countries fııllow a way re1ated to their level of economic development. This way is called "Investment-Development Path". This paper uses the investmenı-development path approach to ana1yse the net foreign direct investment position of Turkey in beIWeen 1980-2002. We find evidence that the development in net foreign direet invesrment position of Turkey is consistent with Sıage ii in the investment-development path. LGiriş YaşadtğıJnlz yüzyıla damgasını vuran en önemli ekonomik olgulardan birisi, sermayenin giderek belli şirketlerin elinde toplanması ve "çokuluslu girişimler" (multinational enterprises) olarak adlandırdığınuz bu şirketlerin yatırım ve üretim faaliyetlerinin büyük değerlere ulaşmasıdıL 2000 yılında dünya genelindeki dolaysız yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının toplamı bir trilyon doları aşmıştır (UNCTAD, 2001). Dolaysız yabancı sermaye yatınmlarının dünya ölçeğindeki dağılınunda gelişmiş ülkelerin ağırlığı açık bir şekilde göıülmektedir. Yani gelişmiş ülkeler hem "yatmmcı" (home) hem de ev sahibi (host) ülke olarak dolaysız yabancı sermaye yatınmları üzerinde söz sahibidirle~. Dolaysız yabancı sermaye yatlOmlarının dünya ekonomisindeki artan önemi ile birlikte, bu yatınmların nedenleri konusuna gösterilen ilgi de hızla artnuştır. Gelenekselolarak dolaysız yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının dünya ölçeğinde dağılınunı sermayenin getirisinin belirlediği düşünülür. Ancak dünya ölçeğinde en çok dolaysız yabancı sermaye yatırınu alan ülkeler sermayenin bol olduğu yani sermayenin getirisinin düşük olduğu ülkelerdiL Ayrıca dolaysız yabancı sermaye yatırımları sermayenin transferinden çok, firmanın sahip olduğu teknoloji, marka, işletme teknikleri, nitelikli işgücü gibi "maddi veya maddi olmayan var1ıların" (tangible or intangible assets) transferini içerir (Hymer, 1960: 69). Hymer'e göre, bir firmanın başka ülke pazarlanna yatınm
Technological innovation is an important driving force for a country’s sustainable economic development and social progress, and can be achieved through R&D investment, which would lead to sustainable economic growth. This process is one of the important steps for China to realize the transformation of the economic growth mode and the development from extensive to intensive type. Since R&D investment, technological innovation, and economic growth are mutually influential and inseparable, it is particularly important to understand the interrelationship between the three. By collating data from China from 1995 to 2016, this paper established an indicator system of R&D investment, technological innovation, and economic growth as research variables. Vector autoregression model, impulse response function, and variance decomposition function were adopted. A long-term stable dynamic interrelationship among the three was revealed. The empirical analysis showed that in recent years, the growth of R&D investment, technological innovation, and economic growth stagnated or even slowly declined, which indicated that the economic development had insufficient stamina. The conversion efficiency of R&D investment was not high, and R&D investment for short-term profit was ubiquitous. The innovation ability of scientific and technological achievements was not strong, the conversion rate of scientific and technological achievements was not high, and the market integration process was relatively slow. Overall, a good circular mechanism has not been established among R&D investment, technological innovation, and economic growth. Based on this, China should improve the mutual influence and interrelationship among R&D investment, technological innovation, and economic growth. The transmission mechanism among the three should be optimized and stable economic growth promoted, for example, by increasing R&D investment, enhancing the efficiency of R&D funds, improving the incentive system for scientific and technological innovation, and promting the effective use and marketization integration of innovation achievements.
The empirical study examined the impact of exports on the economic growth of Pakistan. The study obtained annual time series data from 1972-2014. The relationship regressed through Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as dependent variable while Exports (EX), Imports (IM), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Terms of Trade (TOT) as independent variables. Econometric techniques Augmented-Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test employed to check the Stationarity of the variables in the study. Autoregressive distribution lag model (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM-ARDL) employed for the long run and short run relationship in the study. Gross Domestic Product, imports, consumer price index are stationary at level and exports and terms of trade are stationary at first difference. Findings of the study revealed export positively affect the economic growth while imports, consumer price index and terms of trade negatively affect the economic growth. Policy measures to promoting exports of valuable goods and importing capital goods for the further economic activity must be encouraged. Consumer price index stability must be ensured for smooth and stable economic growth.
High technology product export is seen to be essential for sustainable
economic growth of developing countries. Therefore, high technology product export
has a great importance especially for developing countries. Due to high value-added
high-tech product export is generally considered as one of the determinant of growth.
There are many factors that effect high technology product export in literature. In this
study, we examined the effect of foreign direct investment and openness on high
technology product export with panel data analysis method in 12 developing countries
over the period of 2000-2012. According to analysis results, foreign direct investment
and openness have a positive impact on high technology product export. Within the
framework of empirical findings we presented some policy recommendations for
developing countries.
In recent years, progress in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has caused many structural changes, including the reorganization of economics, globalization, and trade extension, which has led to capital flows and the enhancement of information availability. Moreover, ICT plays a significant role in the development of each economic sector, especially during liberalization processes. Growth economists predict that economic growth is driven by investments in ICT. However, empirical studies on this issue have produced mixed results, due to different research methodology and geographical configuration utilized in the studies. In this paper, we estimate the endogenous production growth model, using panel data of the Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs) in Asia-namely Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong and Malaysia-over the period of 1990-2007. We find a strong significant positive impact of ICT investment on economic growth for these countries. This indicates that if these countries seek to enhance their economic growth, they need to implement specific policies that facilitate investment in ICT.
The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by using 1987-2006 monthly data. In other words, export-led growth hypothesis is being tested for the period of eighties and nineties. Industrial production index is used for the proxy of gross domestic product since we use monthly data. For the variables of export, import, terms of trade and industrial production index, first of all ADF unit root tests are carried out. All of the variables are found to be same degree integrated. Thus, long run relations among the variables are examined in the framework of Johansen co-integration analysis. Provided with the long run relation, vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated. Granger causality tests based on VECM and modified Wald tests (MWALD) defined by Toda Yamamoto (1995) are carried out to determine the directions of the relations among the variables. According to the test results, export-led growth is verified for the specified period.
Start-ups are counted as ‘engine’ for innovation, especially in developing countries. However, in developing countries, bureaucratic barriers and costs are main impediments for start-ups. In this paper, the main barriers and costs are examined within panel data analysis framework in the developing countries indicating whether there are barriers and costs for start-ups between 2004 and 2012. Panel data analysis which has corrected robust standard errors for heteroscedascity and autocorrelation is used in this paper for researching start-ups condition in 61 developing countries. The results were obtained show that there are bureaucratic barriers and costs are main impediments for start-ups and innovation in the developing countries.
This article examines the relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth for 19 OECD countries from 2001 to 2009. We used two measures for entrepreneurship: the level of entrepreneurial activities and potential innovation. We estimated a growth function using techniques of panel data. The results show a significant and positive impact of the variables used to measure entrepreneurship on economic growth. The results also show that the impact of innovation becomes more potential significant and higher in the presence of a favorable institutional framework. These results have strong implications for economic policy. The government will further promote entrepreneurial activities, especially which generate innovation, by providing a favorable institutional framework.
Singapore’s remarkable success in economic development has been strongly associated with the country’s vigorous efforts to embrace the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) revolution to promote economic growth. This study provides a comprehensive investigation of the contributions of ICT to Singapore’s economic growth during the 1990–2008 period. It documents three key findings. First, there is a strong positive association between the intensity of ICT use and value-added and labor productivity growth at the sector level. Second, ICT investment contributed approximately 1 percentage point to Singapore’s GDP during 1990–2008, and its role in driving economic growth has become increasingly important over time. Third, the contribution of the ICT manufacturing sector to Singapore’s growth was notable, but it was on the decline and faced difficult restructuring challenges. This paper also provides valuable policy lessons and strategic insights for governments in both developed and developing countries that aspire to embrace ICT to promote economic growth.
This study examines possible causal relations among research and development (R&D) expenditures, innovation and economic growth in high income OECD countries. We test for both pairwise and multivariate causal relations by estimating a trivariate panel vector autoregressive (VAR) model through the GMM and panel fixed effects methods. Our bivariate panel causality test results suggest that R&D expenditures Granger cause innovation measured as the number of triadic patents; while technological innovations Granger cause economic growth, as presumed by endogenous growth theory. A reverse causality relation does also exist between economic growth and innovation, that is, the rate of growth of output accelerates the rate of technological change. Our multivariate causality tests further reveal that the market size and the rate of innovation together Granger cause R&D activity; while an increase in national output and R&D intensity jointly Granger–cause technological change. These findings suggest that both the “technology-push” and “demand-pull” models of innovation equally make sense.
Based on 1992-2005 input-output tables at comparable price and using structural decomposition method (SDA), the paper decomposes carbon emissions growth from energy consumption in China into 4 categories of factors: carbon emissions intensity, technology, domestic final demand and trade. Carbon emissions have a trend of accelerated growth and the decisive factor is domestic final demand, not trade. Intensity of carbon emissions plays a significant restrain effect, entirely benefit from energy efficiency, rather than energy substitution. The effect of technical change leads to the growth of carbon emissions, reflecting the technology structure developed towards high energyconsumption and emissions.
In developed economies, production requires not only such traditional factors as capital and labor but also skills, organizational structures and processes, culture, and other factors collectively referred to as “intangible assets. ” Detailed investigation of some of these types of assets has found that they are often large in magnitude and have important productivity benefits. For example, Dale Jorgenson and Barbara Fraumeni found that the stock of human capital in the U.S. economy dwarfs that of physical capital and has grown markedly over time. 1 Bronwyn Hall, Zvi Griliches, and Baruch Lev and Theodore Sougiannis found evidence that research and development (R&D) assets bring benefits in the form of positive marginal product and market valuation. 2 Timothy Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson, and Hitt have found that certain organizational practices, when combined with investments in information technology (IT), were associated with significant increases in productivity in the late 1980s and early 1990s. 3 Investors also attempt to incorporate intangible assets into their valuation of firms, and this is one reason that the market value of a firm may differ markedly from the value of its tangible assets alone. In particular, stock market valuations of firms have increasingly diverged from their measured book value in the past decade or so. 4 Part of the explanation may be the growing use of IT and the associated investments in intangible
The hypothesis that exports in technology-intensive industries have a higher potential for positive externalities coupled with higher productivity levels (due to higher rates of capitalization) is tested using a comprehensive and detailed data set, covering 45 industrialized and developing countries and including exports of 33 industries over the time period 1981–1997. The estimation results, using a random effects model and employing an instrumental variables estimator, support the hypothesis of qualitative differences between high- and low-tech exports with respect to output growth. The superior performance of high-tech exports stems from their positive productivity differential to the domestic sector, while the externality effect is not significant at any meaningful level of significance. The positive productivity differential is only significant for the subsample of developing countries. No significant effects were found to be present in the subsample of OECD member countries.
We address the question: which countries-rich (high-income countries) or poor (middle-income and low-income countries)-tend to gain more from the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) revolution? By employing a panel of 123 countries consisting of 45 high-income countries, 58 middle-income countries, and 20 low-income countries from 2002 to 2017 and by constructing ICT index from mobile, internet, and fixed broadband, we find that in general ICT increases economic growth in both countries, however, poor countries tend to gain more from the ICT revolution.
Intensification of research and development (R&D) and the information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure have been regarded as important drivers for sustained economic growth across the globe. In this study, using a panel vector autoregressive model, we examine the endogenous relationships between R&D, ICT infrastructure development and economic growth in the OECD countries between 1961 and 2018. The empirical results show that both R&D and ICT infrastructure development contribute to long-term economic growth in the OECD countries. The short-run dynamics show that complex inter-relationships between these variables exist. The key insight from this study is that to attain sustained economic growth, policymakers in the OECD economies should put in place an integrated framework that takes into consideration co-development policies pertaining to R&D investment, ICT diffusion and economic growth-enhancing initiatives.
For selecting optimal regimes and design characteristics, an energy efficiency criterion of a mass transfer apparatus is considered, and on its basis, some particular cases of energy efficiency criteria for cooling towers, including the cases with a structured counter-current film-type packing, are obtained. The criteria include heat transfer efficiency in the gas and liquid phases, as well as kinetic characteristics of the process of cooling the water in blocks of film-type packings. Expressions are given for determination of thermal efficiencies in the gas (air) and liquid (water) phases of the cooling tower. Three notations for the energy efficiency criterion of cooling towers are obtained. In the first notation, the efficiency criterion is written down using the thermal efficiency of cooling the water; in the second notation, it is written down using the thermal efficiency of heating the air; in the third notation, it is written down via the transfer coefficient (mass transfer) and mean driving force in the form of an enthalpy difference. A notation of writing down the energy efficiency criterion for a film-type packing in the cooling tower with a volumetric mass transfer coefficient is presented. Irrigator blocks filled with structured film-type contact devices of various designs having an irrigation density of 12 m ³ /m ² h and an air speed of 1.5 m/s are considered. Results of calculations of five types of structured packings are presented: tubular packing made of polyethylene net; metal packings VACU-PAK, PIRAPAK G, “Inzhekhim” IRG and segmentary-structured packing “Inzhekhim”. Values are obtained of the criterion of energy efficiency of these packings for cooling the water as well as the required height of irrigator blocks for a given temperature regime and hydraulic load. Values of the power expended for supplying the air to the irrigator blocks are determined and a histogram is plotted. It is concluded that modern domestic and foreign metal packings have high thermal and hydraulic efficiency and are recommended for use in mini-cooling towers (except for tubular packings made of polyethylene net). For reducing the cost of irrigator blocks, these can be made of polymer materials. Then such blocks of irrigators are recommended for creating a contact between the phases in large-scale cooling towers, which will significantly improve the efficiency of cooling the water at thermal power plants and industrial enterprises.
Earlier studies of economic growth models are generally characterized by macroeconomics variable using the behavior of capital, population, and exports. In fact, every country has its respective export composition according to human capabilities and technologies. This study involves FDI, high-tech and non high-tech exports, and GDP using 50 countries in the period 1992-2014. The results using random effect model shows that non-high-tech exports affect positively on GDP growth on the entire sample. Given this point, high-tech export industries in both groups (the non-high-tech and the high-tech intensive exports countries) have better productivity compared to domestic industry.
Location of new products, 191. — The maturing product, 196. — The standardized product, 202.
There is a multi-dimensional need for studying the energy situation in Turkey and to obtain insight into the development of CO2 emissions. On the one hand, recent projections of the OECD show that Turkey has a yearly GDP growth potential of over 7%. On the other hand, recent projections of UNDP and World Bank indicate that the level of CO2 emission is going to rise six-fold by 2025 with respect to the level of emissions in 1990. It is a great challenge to both meet the growth target and keep the CO2 under control. Thereupon, this paper tries to unfold factors that explain CO2 emissions by undertaking a complete decomposition analysis for Turkey over the period 1980-2003. The analysis shows, as is common to relatively fast growing economies, that the biggest contributor to the rise in CO2 emissions is the expansion of the economy (scale effect). The carbon intensity and the change in composition of the economy, which nearly move in tandem, also contribute to the rise in CO2 emissions, albeit at a slower rate. The energy intensity of the economy, which is decreasing, is responsible for a modest reduction in CO2 emissions. Hence, in congruence with the scale effect, we do not find a decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth in Turkey over the period 1980-2003.
There have been significant advances in the field of information and communication technology (ICT) in recent decades. ICT plays a major role in innovation, raising productivity and increasing economic growth and therefore affects all economic sectors. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of ICT on economic growth in developing countries. To do so, we have used a sample of 30 developing countries for which the necessary data were available for the period 2001- 2006. We concentrate on the usage aspect of ICT to deal with its impact on economic growth. We have also used a new composite index of ICT called Digital Opportunity Index (DOI) covering 3 dimensions including overall opportunity, infrastructure and application. Our findings based on panel data regression models indicate that in general a positive relationship between ICT and economic growth exists but it is significance at 15 percent level in the countries under consideration. Therefore, new developments in ICT in these countries are suggested.
This paper examines the role of R&D spending on economic growth of developing economies between the periods of 2000 and 2009. The impact of R&D spending on these economies is determined by using dynamic system GMM, pooled mean group and three stage least square-GMM models. Sixty-six countries are studied and further grouped as; upper-middle-income economies and lower middle-income economies. The result reveals a beneficial impact of R&D spending on economic growth in developing countries. The effect of R&D spending on growth is positive for upper middle-income economies while insignificant in lower income economies. R&D spending has different short and long run effects on growth. Using simultaneous equation models to account for simultaneity and endogeneity, R&D spending remains beneficial to growth and the results remain consistent with the dynamic system estimator.
Tourism is an activity with great potential in Portugal. At a time of economic crisis, tourism is seen as an opportunity to boost the economy and provide sustainable economic growth. This strategic path based on Tourism has to be accomplished in order to make better use of the economic advantages, but at the same time respecting the environment and environmental goals to which Portugal is committed. So it becomes important to analyze what effects contribute more to emissions in this sector, as well as which tourism subsectors are more responsible for the increase of emissions. The objective of this work is to identify the effects in which CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions in tourism can be broken down and analysed, as well as their evolution and which of them has more importance in determining emissions. For that, in this study a decomposition technique based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index was used in the 2000-2008 period, for five tourism subsectors in Portugal. In general, Tourism activity is the most important effect. Energy mix, Carbon intensity and Energy intensity effects also proved important.
I. Introduction, 65. — II. A model of long-run growth, 66. — III. Possible growth patterns, 68. — IV. Examples, 73. — V. Behavior
of interest and wage rates, 78. — VI. Extensions, 85. — VII. Qualifications, 91.
This paper examines the linkage between patenting and export performance for selected countries at the level of technology fields. Some empirical studies show considerable correlation between the patenting behavior of countries and their economic success in international markets. Adding to the existing literature, the aim of this analysis is to assess whether the indicators that are supposed to reflect patent value—such as patent citations or family size—have any explanatory power in estimating the export value of countries by technology fields.
For this study, a panel dataset was compiled consisting of annual data (1988–2007) on international trade from the UN-COMTRADE database and patent data from the EPO Worldwide Patent Statistical Database (PATSTAT).
The results show that exports are a very useful way of placing a valuation on patents. Patents and exports are strongly correlated, although there are visible deviations from this parallelism. IPC classes and inventor counts prove not to be relevant in predicting the export value of patents, while family size has restricted predictive power. When analyzing patent applications, forward citations, in particular, are more promising than granted patents.
Previous studies on the determinants of carbon dioxide emissions have primarily focused on the role of affluence. The impact of population growth on carbon dioxide emissions has received less attention. This paper takes a step forward providing such empirical evidence, using a data set of 93 countries for the period of 1975-1996. The paper has following findings. (1) Population growth has been one of the major driving forces behind increasing carbon dioxide emissions worldwide over the last two decades. It is estimated that half of increase in emissions by 2025 will be contributed by future population growth alone. (2) Rising income levels have been associated with a monotonically upward shift in emissions.
Over the last two decades many European governments have pursued ambitious research and development (RandD) policies with the aim of fostering innovation and economic growth in peripheral regions of Europe. The question is whether these policies are paying off. Arguments such as the need to reach a minimum threshold of research, the existence of important distance decay effects in the diffusion of technological spillovers, the presence of increasing returns to scale in RandD investments, or the unavailability of the necessary socio-economic conditions in these regions to generate innovation seem to cast doubts about the possible returns of these sort of policies. This paper addresses this question. A two-step analysis is used in order to first identify the impact of RandD investment of the private, public, and higher education sectors on innovation (measured as die number of patent applications per million population). The influence of innovation and innovation growth on economic growth is then addressed. The results indicate that RandD investment, as a whole, and higher education RandD investment in peripheral regions of the EU, in particular, are positively associated with innovation. The existence and strength of this association are, however, contingent upon region-specific socio-economic characteristics, which affect the capacity of each region to transform RandD investment into innovation and, eventually, innovation into economic growth. © 2004 Gatton college of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky.
The objective of patent rights is to foster innovation and economic growth. However, to date, there is little robust evidence that patents “work” as intended. Here, we study the impact of changes in effective patent rights within panels of up to 54 manufacturing industries in up to 72 countries between 1981-2000. We find that more patent-intensive industries responded to stronger patent laws with higher growth, which effect increased with GDP per capita. Between 1991-1995, an increase in the level of effective patent rights from Hong Kong to Australia would have raised the average growth of the leather industry by 1/18, but that of the other chemicals industry by about 1/5. Patent rights increased growth through both factor accumulation and raising productivity. Our findings were robust to alternative measures of patent rights and patent intensity.
Of the Division of LabourOf the Principle which Gives Occasion to the Division of LabourOf the Natural and Market Price of CommoditiesNote
This study evaluates the changes in CO2 emissions from energy consumption in Brazil for the period 1970-2009. Emissions are decomposed into production and consumption activities allowing computing the full set of energy sources consumed in the country. This study aims to develop a comprehensive and updated picture of the underlying determinants of emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil along the last four decades, including for the first time the recently released data for 2009. Results demonstrate that economic activity and demographic pressure are the leading forces explaining emission increase. On the other hand, carbon intensity reductions and diversification of energy mix towards cleaner sources are the main factors contributing to emission mitigation, which are also the driving factors responsible for the observed decoupling between CO2 emissions and economic growth after 2004. The cyclical patterns of energy intensity and economy structure are associated to both increments and mitigation on total emission change depending on the interval. The evidences demonstrate that Brazilian efforts to reduce emissions are concentrated on energy mix diversification and carbon intensity control while technology intensive alternatives like energy intensity has not demonstrated relevant progress. Residential sector displays a marginal weight in the total emission change.
Several methods for decomposing energy consumption or energy-induced gas emissions in industry have been proposed by various analysts. Two commonly encountered problems in the application of these methods are the existence of a residual after decomposition and the handling of the value zero In the data set. To overcome these two problems, we modify the often used Divisia index decomposition method by replacing the arithmetic mean weight function by a logarithmic one. This refined Divisia index method can be shown to give perfect decomposition with no residual. It also gives converging decomposition results when the zero values in the data set are replaced by a sufficiently small number. The properties of the method are highlighted using the data of the Korean industry.
We compile a database of energy uses, energy sources, and carbon dioxide emissions for the USA for the period 1850-2002. We use a model to extrapolate the missing observations on energy use by sector. Overall emission intensity rose between 1850 and 1917, and fell between 1917 and 2002. The leading cause for the rise in emission intensity was the switch from wood to coal, but population growth, economic growth, and electrification contributed as well. After 1917, population growth, economic growth and electrification pushed emissions up further, and there was no net shift from fossil to non-fossil energy sources. From 1850 to 2002, emissions were reduced by technological and behavioural change (particularly in transport, manufacturing and households), structural change in the economy, and a shift from coal to oil and gas. These trends are stronger than electrification, explaining the fall in emissions relative to GDP.
This paper examines the association between research and development (R&D) and the growth rate of output per capita at a national
level. Do countries that allocate a larger share of output to R&D grow faster than otherwise similar countries? After reviewing
past literature, I examine the association between R&D and economic growth in 20 OECD countries using a multivariate regression.
There is not found to be a strong association between the two. But when considering only G-7 countries, there is reported
to be a positive association between industry R&D expenditures and economic growth.