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International Conference on “Research and Innovations in Science, Engineering & Technology”
ICRISET-2017
Analyzing urban population density gradient for
Morbi city
Toral Vyas
(Transportation Engg.) Civil Engineering Department
L.D.College of Engineering
Ahmedabad , India
toral.vyas78@gmail.com
Prof.R.N.Shukla
Civil Engineering Department
L.D.College of Engineering
Ahmedabad , India
Abstract— This paper analyzes the urban structure by
considering population density gradient by applying four
mathematical functions. It has been shown that how the population
density function varies with the increase in distance from CBD. The
best fit function for population density of Morbi city has been
determined.
Keywords—population density gradient; Central Business
District(CBD); mathematical functions
I. INTRODUCTION
Urban population has increased remarkably during last 2
decades. The urban population was 54% of the total global
population in 2014 which was increased from 34% in 1960,
and continues to grow. The global urban population is
expected to grow approximately 1.84% per year between 2015
and 2020, 1.63% per year between 2020 and 2025, and 1.44%
per year between 2025 and 2030 (WHO report 2015).
Numbers of parameters are affecting it but the most important
parameter is opportunity. Opportunity is also a parameter
which determines the pattern of spatial growth of urban area.
The urban growth sprawls in the direction where opportunities
are more available. Population density varies with distance
from the city centre (Griffith, 1980).In Gujarat the urban
population was 37.4% (2001) was increased to 42.6% in
2011(Census 2011). The urban population growth rate in
Morbi is 3.33 % from 2001 to 2011. Population density
gradient is parameter which determines the spatial form of
urban structure.
II. CONCEPT OF URBAN SPATIAL FORM AND URBAN POPULATION
DENSITY
The structure of settlement influences the transportation
system. The spatial distribution is connected by transportation
system within its geographical area. Generally it is
charatacterised by their densities. It is important to understand
urban form and analyze the urban structure, transport supply
and travel pattern as well as to develop relationship among
urban structure and structural parameters. There are some
indicators used for analysis of urban structure like population
density, dispersion or density distribution, transportation
network, accessibility, land use composition. Three spatial
features affect the economic development of a region: the
density (population), the distance (mobility and accessibility)
and division (the spatial integration of economies)
(Catherine-2010).Improving access to people and markets is
a key driver which plays an important role in economical
development. The connectivity with international and regional
markets creates economic opportunities and this attractiveness
of opportunity leads to the population growth in to that
particular area Generally the tendency of the people is to settle
near the CBD due to the proximity of economical activities
and opportunities.
Colin Clark (1951) has explained that the population density
gradient with respect to radial distance for urban area can be
represented by exponential function. Clark found that
residential density does not decline by a uniform percentage
with each unit of increase in distance from the center. Density
gradients can be specified by two parameters: Do and b in the
following formula: Dx = Do e -bx
Where x = Radial distance
e =2.718 (the base of natural logarithms)
Do = population density at centre
Dx = Population density at distance x from CBD
b = slope factor
Number of research work has been carried out worldwide to
analyze the population density gradient. Tanner (1961) &
sherratt (1960) had developed two models independently and
concluded that the population declines exponentially some
distance away from the centre. Northam(1979) &
Newling(1969) had proposed another model in which another
significant feature(density crater) was added to earlier models
He found out that the area immediately adjacent to the CBD
has lower density of population which rises some distance
away creating a crater in the density gradient curve.
III. STUDY AREA
The research work has been carried out for Morbi city.
Morbi is situated on the bank of river Machchhu and 60 km
away from Rajkot city. Morbi is a historical city of Saurashtra
region. It is a hub of ceramic industries. There are more than
700 units of ceramic production. There are some other
industrial development like clock manufacturing and
International Conference on “Research and Innovations in Science, Engineering & Technology”
ICRISET-2017
electronic bike production. There is high rate of migration to
Morbi because of its industrial development. The major
outgrowths of Morbi city are Trajpar, Sanala, Ravapar and
Mahendranagar. There are 14 wards in Morbi city (as per 2011
census).
Fig-1 Location of study area in map
The CBD of Morbi city is ward no. 6 which is also known
as “Nagar Darwaja”.It is highly congested and highly
populous area. There are Darbar Gadh and Mani Mandir near
to it which is old and historic sites of Morbi city. Number of
shops and other commercial activities are concentrated over
here. Residential and commercial type of land use is observed
in ward no 6.The total area of Morbi city is around 29 Km2.
Fig.2 population scenario of Morbi
Fig. 3 Digitized map of Morbi city
IV. ANALYSIS
The population growth of Morbi city is 3.33% (2001 to
2011). The development of ceramic industries played an
important role in the population growth as well as the
distribution of population. Ward no. 6 has been considered as
the CBD of city. For analysis purpose the Euclidian distance
has been considered which is the distance between the
geometric centers of the respective wards. The central wards
are the core part of the city (old city).
TABLE-1 population density and distance from CBD
Ward
No. Population density
(Inhabitant/ km2) Distance
from
CBD(km)
1 3692.70 2.56
2 33273.53 0.80
3 10776.93 0.86
4 6304.38 1.66
5 3695.28 1.63
6 20402.30 0.00
7 13102.76 1.41
8 13398.82 2.13
9 4637.21 3.19
10 2507.62 3.37
11 28032.33 1.22
12 19318.68 0.63
13 26753.21 0.67
14 8175.60 1.87
Fig-4 ward wise Population density
The density gradient is analyzed by applying four
mathematical functions. These functions are logarithmic,
linear, exponential and second order polynomial. As per
Collin Clark theory the density declines with distance from the
city centre. For Morbi city the density declines but some
distance away from city centre. Ward no. 2 and ward no. 11 is
the two densest adjacent wards from CBD. In these two wards
the density is higher as compared to ward no-6 which shows
that there is rise in population density from city centre and
afterwards it declines as per Collin Clark theory.
Morbi
CBD
International Conference on “Research and Innovations in Science, Engineering & Technology”
ICRISET-2017
Fig. 5 Population density Gradient (log. Function)
Fig. 6 Population density Gradient ( 2 nd order poly. Function)
Fig. 7 Population Density Gradient (Expo. Function)
Fig. 8 Population Density Gradient (Linear)
TABLE-2 The fit of various function for the density gradient in 2011 ,Morbi
city
Sr.
No
Type of
Function
Equation
R
2
value
1 Logarithmic y = - 1385 ln(x) + 18702 0.569
2 Linear y = -7366 x + 25448 0.513
3 Polynomial
(2nd order) y = 571.8 x
2
– 9385 x + 26692 0.516
4 Exponential y = 30471e
-
0.68
x
0.645
From table-2 it is observed that the population density gradient
declines in all four types of function. The R2 value for
exponential function is highest as compared to the other
function.
V. DISCUSSION
Morbi is developing city of Saurashtra region. Its population
density is following the exponential relation with distance
from centre and its best fit value of R2 is 0.645.
Acknowledgment
Authors of this research paper would like to thank to Morbi
Municipality for providing the demographic data of Morbi
city.
References
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International Conference on “Research and Innovations in Science, Engineering & Technology”
ICRISET-2017
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