Aspects Regarding the Energy Security in the Middle East

Abstract

Ensuring energy security is a concern for all the world’s countries. For a long time, the issue of energy security has been looked at from the point of view of ensuring the energy resources necessary for the functioning of the economy and society and, implicitly, from the perspective of reducing dependence on imported energy resources. In reality, however, energy security must also be addressed from the perspective of states with energy resources, as their security can be jeopardized by disturbances that may occur during the operation or transport process or due to lower prices. Middle East countries, rich in energy resources, are currently vulnerable due to global oil price declines and instability and conflict in the region. This vulnerability may affect the supply of energyconsuming states and their energy security in the medium and long term, and not only.

Full text

Land Forces Academy Review
Vol. XXII, No 2(86), 2017
ASPECTS REGARDING THE ENERGY
SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Ionuţ Alin CÎRDEI
“Nicolae Bălcescu” Land Forces Academy, Sibiu, Romania
cirdei_alin@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
Ensuring energy security is a concern for all the world's
countries. For a long time, the issue of energy security has been
looked at from the point of view of ensuring the energy resources
necessary for the functioning of the economy and society and,
implicitly, from the perspective of reducing dependence on imported
energy resources. In reality, however, energy security must also be
addressed from the perspective of states with energy resources, as
their security can be jeopardized by disturbances that may occur
during the operation or transport process or due to lower prices.
Middle East countries, rich in energy resources, are currently
vulnerable due to global oil price declines and instability and conflict
in the region. This vulnerability may affect the supply of energy-
consuming states and their energy security in the medium and long
term, and not only.
KEYWORDS: energy security, resources, oil, crisis, Middle East
1. Introduction
In general terms, “energy security
refers to the provision of energy resources
necessary for the proper functioning of the
economy of a state and for ensuring the
well-being of citizens, in optimal quantities,
at acceptable prices, in a continuous flow
and with minimal impact on the
environment, by adopting the necessary
measures to secure supply sources,
transport corridors and processing and
storage capacities simultaneously with the
conduct of a research and innovation
activity in order to achieve long-term
energy stability” (Cîrdei, 2015, p. 80).
Dependence on energy resources is not
proof of the fact that energy security is
jeopardized. The fact that a country relies
on energy imports, irrespective of its form
and type, does not jeopardize its energy
security “provided that the flow of energy
resources keeps constantly from surplus
areas (energy resource producers) to areas
with deficit (consumers of energy
resources)” (Fattouh, 2007, p. 9).
The evolution of international events
has highlighted the need to extend the scope
of this definition, as energy security refers
not only to energy-consuming states but
also to resource-holders. Affecting a state's
energy security can occur due to events
happening at any point in the supply chain
at different times. The duration of the
damage and its intensity depends on a
multitude of factors. Events taking place in
extraction areas, if they have a limited
DOI: 10.1515/raft-2017-0012
© 2017. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.
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duration, have an acceptable impact on
providing the necessary resources for the
proper functioning of the entire system due
to the existence of stocks and the length of
the entire flow. Of the possible factors that
may affect security of supply, the most
important are, in our opinion, political -
military factors that can create instability
for long periods of time. Prolonged political
crises, internal tensions, as in the case of
the Arab Spring and Colorful Revolutions
in North Africa, internal or inter-state
conflicts can cause large spatial and
temporal crises. The Middle East region,
due to its past tension, the present complex
situation and the possible trends, is an area
that needs to be given greater attention. The
rich hydrocarbon resources make this area
an area of great importance for the large
consumers of fossil energy resources, but at
the same time it is one of the major
vulnerabilities to ensuring energy security.
Knowing the specificity of this area,
understanding the mechanisms that appear
here can be a way to ensure energy security
and, at the same time, provide signals at the
right time to reorient and re-establish
relationships of dependence. Increasing the
energy efficiency and the share of
renewable energy resources in some
countries will be offset by increased energy
needs in other emerging countries such as
India and China as well as other North
African, Asian and South American states.
Consequently, the demand for fossil energy
resources will remain constant and will
even slightly increase globally, although the
share of oil in the energy mix will likely fall.
The European Union will have the
same concerns about reducing the
consumption of energy resources and, in
particular, fossil resources, but other
developing countries will not pay too much
attention to alternative energy sources,
being concerned about economic
development. Also, in some European
countries and beyond, there is a tendency to
eliminate nuclear energy, which can create
an energy shortage that is most easily offset
by increasing the consumption of fossil
energy resources.
Under these circumstances, the
Middle East will continue to be a major
source of oil and an alternative to oil from
Venezuela or Russia, which are not always
trusted partners and have used in the past
their energy resources as pressure tools in
international relations.
2. A brief Overview of the Middle
East Area
The Middle East area is a quite large
area occupying the Arabian Peninsula, but
also some neighboring areas, with Saudi
Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain,
Iran, Iraq, Israel and Yemen as the main
states to which we can add Egypt, Turkey,
Georgia etc. In our analysis, we will focus
on the states situated in the Arabian
Peninsula.
This area is characterized by strong
tensions between the constituent states and
between the states in the region and other
states due to political, economic, religious
factors, etc. The origin of tensions between
the states of the region is lost in the
darkness of time, and can be identified at
the time of the emergence of Islam, which
gave rise in time to the shaping of two
divergent religious trends: Sunni and Shiite.
This religious tension was exacerbated
when the great colonial powers allowed for
the establishment of new states, whose
borders were arbitrarily and geometrically
drawn, without taking into account the
ethnic and religious distribution of the
population, giving birth to some States
where there are powerful minorities, and in
which the minority class has often taken
power and exercised it to the detriment of
the majority. In this context, the states in
the region are trying to protect their own
minorities in the territory of other states
through direct or indirect involvement in
domestic affairs, which gives rise to even
more tensions and conflicts. These tensions
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are felt within states, but especially between
states, for example, between Saudi Arabia,
the most important Sunni state in the region
and Iran, the most important Shiite state.
Political and religious tensions are even
greater as we have Middle Eastern countries
where the leading class is Sunni and most
of the population is Shiite or vice versa.
The Middle East region has seen
numerous wars in recent decades,
including: the Arab-Israeli wars, the war
between Iran and Iraq, Kuwait's invasion by
Iraq, the first Gulf War between the
international coalition and Iraq, the Second
Gulf War, the revolution in Egypt, the civil
war in Syria, the perpetual conflict between
Israel and the Palestinian territories, etc.,
plus the terrorist organizations fighting the
state, the ISIS offensive in Iraq and Syria,
the civil war in Yemen, etc. These conflicts
have a strong impact on the whole region,
but also affect the energy security of both
the states in the region and energy-
consuming states. Conflicts have a direct
impact on the production and distribution of
energy resources by affecting the ability of
states to extract, process, transport energy
resources, but also have an indirect impact
on states' capacity to exploit resources and
thus on energy security, by reducing the
competitiveness of the states and their
capacity to face the market challenges due
to the lack of investment and the aging of
the technology.
States in this area can be divided into
at least three categories at the moment,
from a stability and security perspective: on
the one hand, we have the states that are
governed by totalitarian regimes, capable of
maintaining full control over the territory,
institutions and processes of exploitation of
resources, even at the risk of human rights
violations, on the other hand we have
unstable states, marked by internal conflicts
such as Syria and Iraq, where the capacity
of extracting energy resources is affected,
as well as the international credibility. The
third category could be represented by
states such as Iran, which have a dominant
position in the area, have strong institutions
capable of controlling the entire territory
and governing the state, but which are in a
tense relationship with other states and have
been subjected to drastic international
sanctions, which can limit their role on the
energy resource market, and which can be
restored at any time.
The conflicting history of the area is
also amplified by the rich resources the area
has, and they attract as a magnet the great
powers, pursuing their interests through the
maintenance of conflicts and direct support
of one party to the detriment of the other.
Energy security is not only about
access to energy resources, but also about
the existence of markets. For a long time,
the issue of energy security has been
analyzed only from the perspective of
energy consumers, considering that the
energy resource holders are in a privileged
position. However, the evolution of recent
years has highlighted the extremely high
vulnerability of states with energy resources
to developments in the international security
environment. Over time, energy-consuming
states have tried to find alternative solutions,
reduce their dependence, and increase their
energy efficiency, while energy-rich states
have done little to keep up with
international developments, and their
economies, and implicitly national security,
suffered from disruptions that took place in
the energy and security field. We are thus
able to analyze the situation of the states of
the Middle East, states that have important
hydrocarbon reserves but which are in a
strong state of insecurity, with multiple
tensions and divergent interests fed and
sustained by the great powers that have
chosen, as in the cold war period, to lead an
indirect war, called proxy war.
Middle Eastern countries face a series
of challenges to their own security,
challenges that come from both the
international environment and the evolution
of the energy security issue. The main
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challenges that we have identified as of
major importance for the near future are:
− Domestic and international terrorism,
individual, state-owned or endorsed by
terrorist organizations such as ISIS;
− Dictatorial regimes and attempts to
combat them, for example the Syrian
regime or the possible tensions that may
arise in Saudi Arabia or other states in the;
− Internal conflicts, where armed
groups are fighting against state authorities,
most often supported by forces outside the
country;
− External and inter-regional conflicts,
such as the conflict in Yemen where Iran
and Saudi Arabia are actually facing, the
conflicts between Israel and Palestine;
− Decreasing and maintaining the oil
price at a low level, due to the emergence of
shale oil, the increase in production but also
the attempt to impose unofficial sanctions
on some states;
− Increased attention given to
renewable energy by energy-intensive
states, due to the issue of protecting the
environment and ensuring energy security;
− Technological evolution, which
allows more efficient exploitation, with less
impact on the environment, but requires
investment and research;
− Lack of investment in energy and
aging of transport infrastructure, which has
a limited life span and technical
characteristics that are outdated by current
needs;
− Decrease in reserves and increase
operating costs, due to the difficulty of
extracting deep oil deposits;
− Efficiency of oil and shale gas
exploitation, under the conditions in which
“the United States is now the world’s
fastest growing oil producer, achieving
what would have been unimaginable just a
few years ago. Shale plays are prolific but
require continual investment due to rapid
decline rates from individual wells”
(International Security Advisory Board,
2014, p. 3);
− Climate change that makes new
areas available for hydrocarbon extraction,
such the arctic area, that is attractive for
US, Canada, Russia, Norway;
− Etc.
3. The Importance of Energy
Resources of the Middle East
The Middle East is an extremely rich
area of fossil energy resources, which are
the basis for the functioning of the economy
in most developed countries. Taking into
account the abundance of resources
available here, we can say that the strategic
importance of the region will remain
particularly high for a very long time, and
that the attention of the great powers will
focus on controlling or influencing the
events taking place here because “the
concentration of so much of the world’s
hydrocarbons in this geographical location
means that as long as the modern economy
depends on the supply of oil and natural
gas, the Middle East will play a key role in
global politics and economy” (Luft, 2009,
p. 1). The strategic importance of the
Middle East is also very high today when
major powers or emerging powers seek to
gain as much influence as possible and
prevent other competitors from doing the
same thing, which translates into
maintaining conflicting states and
supporting different camps in local or
internal conflicts occurring in the region.
The analysis of the statistical data
highlights the energetic characteristics of
the area, its role in ensuring the energy
resources needed for the developed
countries and also anticipates the
importance of the area in the future.
Ensuring the energy security of energy-
consuming states depends to a large extent
on the control of this region and on the
energy security of the region itself.
Nowadays control of the region is no longer
direct, but by influencing the policies of the
states in the region, by supporting them in
various projects, by investing in
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infrastructure, by encouraging the oil
companies from the strong states to invest
in the region, by ensuring a certain
technological transfer etc.
According to data published in the
Statistical Yearbook produced by ENI (Ente
Nazionale Idrocarburi – National Hydrocarbons
Authority), at the level of year 2016, in the
Middle East we can fiind 48 % of the global
hidrocarbons reserves, while in the other
main regions we have the following
situation: 20 % in South America, 13 % in
North America, 8 % in Africa, 7 % in
Russia, while in Europe there is only 1 % of
the world's reserves. Also among the top 10
states with major oil reserves 5 are in the
Middle East. The absolute world leader in
terms of reserves is Venezuela (18 %),
followed by Saudi Arabia (16 %), Canada
(10.2 %), Iran (9.5 %), Iraq (8.5 % 6.1 %)
and the United Arab Emirates (5.9 %) (ENI,
2016, pp. 2-3). According to the same
source, in the coming decades, the Middle
East will remain among the few areas
where hydrocarbon reserves will continue
to last, taking into account the existing
quantities and the annual global
consumption rate. Europe will deplete its
oil reserves over the next 10 years, Russia
in 23 years, while the Middle East will
exhaust its hydrocarbon reserves at steady
consumption in about 74 years. The
detailed situation at the level of Middle East
states is shown in Figure no. 1.
Figure no. 1: Reserves of oil (in years) based on the current production rate (Eni, 2016, p. 16)
In the case of Syria and Yemen we
can see an extreme change in the stock
situation because of the sharp decline in
production due to internal conflicts, and this
difference is best seen in the analysis of the
data available for 2011 and 2015. We believe
that the data provided is all the more
significant, as we notice that the Middle East
countries have an important market share at
the moment and an important production
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capacity. Thus, according to data provided
by ENI, in the Statistical Yearbook (ENI,
2016, p. 8), we find out that the world’s
largest world oil producer is the US, with
14.1 % of total production, followed by Saudi
Arabia with 13.2 % and Russia with 12 %.
In the top 10 of the world’s leading oil
producers, we also find four other Middle
Eastern countries: Iraq (4.4 %), United Arab
Emirates (4.1 %), Iran (3.9 %) and Kuwait
(3.4 %).
Middle East countries play a
particularly important role in the global
energy market and developments in this
region can be felt globally. The energy
security of Europe and the world at large
depends on the energy security of the
Middle East, as hydrocarbons still occupy a
dominant position in each country’s energy
basket, and the possibilities for replacing
hydrocarbons are limited, although there is
concern about this. At present, fossil energy
resources (oil, gas and coal) account for 81 %
of the global energy mix, and by 2040 the
share will remain extremely high, standing at
around 77 %, and oil and natural gas will
account for 53 % (OPEC, 2016, p. 9).
The European Union is directly
interested in the evolution of events in the
Middle East, even though the Member
States do not manifest themselves as
important players in the area. The European
Union's energy security depends to a large
extent on the stability and security of the
Middle East, knowing its high degree of
energy dependency, although efforts have
been made in recent years to reduce it and
increase the share of energy from renewable
sources in the European energy mix, the
renewable energy reaching a total weight of
25.5 % in 2015.
Given that in 2014 the European
Union imported 8.9 % of its oil consumption
from Saudi Arabia’s (4th place among the
oil providers) and 4.6 % from Iraq (6th
place among the oil providers) (Eurostat,
2016), and in 2016 it came largely from the
same sources – Iraq (7.7 %) and Saudi Arabia
(6.9 %), ie positions 4 and 5 on the list of
European Union's oil sources (EU imports
of energy products – recent developments,
2017), we can state that the Middle East
area could directly influence the EU member
states’ energy security. The development of
viable alternatives to fossil energy requires
time, major investments and new
technological breakthroughs, and the total
replacement of oil is far from turning into
reality, as “one in every three barrels of
exported crude oil still comes from the
Middle East. Yet significant shifts in this
sector are transforming the geopolitical
equation of oil in the region” (Kaspersen,
2015).
The Middle East enjoys a privileged
position worldwide due to its large reserves
of hydrocarbons, but at the same time it
draws the attention of the great powers,
who are willing to do everything in their
power to defend their interests and achieve
their goals. Therefore, the geopolitical
situation of the region will remain extremely
complicated, and the security of the states
in the region, closely linked to national
security, will remain extremely difficult to
maintain in the medium and long term.
4. Conclusions
The Middle Eastern countries, rich in
fossil-energy resources are in a seemingly
lose – lose situation. On the one hand, this
region is marked by strong violence and
political instability, recalling the conflict in
Syria, Iraq, the tense situation between
Israel and the Arab states, the complex
situation of Iran, which has improved its
relations with the US and the international
community, but the problems have not been
fully resolved, the tensions that can put the
totalitarian regimes of Saudi Arabia and
other states in the region on trial, regimes
that keep the power in part and with
Western support, by weapons deliveries of
tens of billions of dollars. This political
instability may affect states' ability to
exploit energy resources, transport them to
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European and Asian recipients, jeopardize
the physical security of extraction areas,
and raise questions among beneficiaries
about safety and continuity of exploitation.
Also from this point of view, another
problem could be the lack of investments in
modern technologies that can keep these
states competitive in a very active, flexible
and innovative market.
Also, states in this area, more than
any other state, can face the issue of
securing energy infrastructures in the face
of increasingly numerous, complex and
difficult to anticipate and combat threats.
Middle East countries are vulnerable to
countless threats that address the rule of law
and the state as a whole, but which can
especially target energy infrastructures that
are vulnerable for at least two reasons: they
are true neuralgic points of the energy
system because their operation depends on
the functioning of many other infrastructures
and systems, and because they are very
wide and geographically expanded, making
them extremely vulnerable to classical or
hybrid attacks (Pricopi, 2016, p. 58).
Technological progress, on the other
hand, can be a major challenge for the
Middle East countries as it allows for wider
exploitation at increasingly affordable and
environmentally proven low impact of gas
and shale oil, which allows the United
States and other countries to reduce their
dependence on Middle East hydrocarbons
or even to ensure their energy independence
and at the same time to allow them to enter
in the category of exporters of energy
resources, offered at a low price, which
would be a blow to major energy producing
states.
Decreasing energy prices and keeping
them low for a longer period of time can
deeply affect most of the states whose
economy is almost exclusively dependent
on the exploitation of energy resources, as
manifested both in Saudi Arabia and
especially in Venezuela, a state with
significant energy resources and a significant
market share, but which are on the verge of
collapse due to the fall in oil prices and due
to extremely harmful and unsustainable
internal policies. “The oil-price collapse that
started in June 2014 was not just a correction
typical of commodity markets. It will be
seen retrospectively as the inauguration of a
new era” (Noël, 2016, p. 71).
A counter-example in this respect,
and which could serve as a model for many
countries, is Norway, the European state
with the most important energy resources,
and which has created an investment fund
fueled by hydrocarbon revenue, and which
aims to ensure the financial resources
necessary for the good functioning of the
state after the exhaustion of the fossil
resources.
Another possible short-term solution
for Middle East countries is China’s interest
in energy resources in this region and the
investments that China might be willing to
materialize in order to secure its resources
to keep moving this energetic colossus in
becoming.
There are solutions for Middle
Eastern countries, but there are also many
challenges, some of which are outlined
above. Another challenge is the increasing
concern to reduce the environmental impact
and to promote renewable energy in all
sectors of the economy and industry.
Promoting green energy, correlated with
instability in the region, maintaining low oil
prices, making shale oil more efficient,
exploiting the Arctic deposits by the USA,
Canada, Norway, Russia, etc., and doubled
by the lack of investment and a strategy in
the long run, may intensify tensions in the
Middle East. Simply holding hydrocarbon
resources, which are available in limited
quantities and whose exploitation is
becoming more and more expensive, is not
a guarantee of the welfare and stability of
this region. Long-term strategies, investments
and effective policies to reduce the conflict
potential of the region are needed.
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In addition to the political, economic
or technological measures that the countries
of the Middle East can take individually or
in cooperation with energy resource
recipients such as the European states or
China, particular attention should be paid to
developing a culture of resilience, both at
the level of state institutions and at the
organizational level, and not only because
resilience is not only about accepting events
and bearing their consequences, but rather
identifying solutions to important issues and
manifesting a proactive, forward-looking
attitude. The current society is particularly
dynamic, the energy field is changing
rapidly, and the issue of energy security
should not only be put to energy-consuming
states, but also to energy-owning states.
Also, it should not be neglected that
the states of the Middle East are extremely
divided, with sometimes contradictory
interests. Major players in the area, Iran,
Saudi Arabia and Israel are in a tense
relationship. The history of relations
between Israel on the one hand and the
Arab states on the other hand is known. We
are seeing an increase in potential tensions
between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which
disputes their supremacy in the region and
lead to conflict through intermediaries.
Recently, we have seen an intensification of
Iran-Syria-Russia cooperation at all levels,
including military, as well as a
reaffirmation of the solid relationship
between the US and Saudi Arabia, which
has recently concluded numerous for the
supply of arms and military technology
worth several hundred billion dollars
(David, 2017), over a period of about 10
years. Against this backdrop, Iran is again
seen isolated, although its influence and
involvement in the region states, such as
Syria, Iraq, Yemen, is rising and the only
potential ally of international significance
could be Russia, which does not miss any
opportunity to strengthen its position in the
region to the detriment of the US and other
Western states.
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