The Response of Lake to Glacier in Akesu River-Kaidu River Small Watershed during 30 Years

Abstract

Glacier is a sensitive indicator of the climate change, and also closely related to human beings. RS and GIS supply effective means to research the change of glacier. Those are important methods for compensating the shortage of previous ones. Small watershed is the basic unit of water circulation. Thus, the more reliable conclusion, which is the response of lake to glacier, will be obtained by the small watershed. In this paper, dividing the watershed into the smaller one, the Akesu River-Kaidu River small watershed was chosen as study area. Based on RS and GIS, under the climate change from cold-dry to warm-wet since 1977, 2000 and 2007, the variety of glacier was shown as decreasing firstly and then increasing a little. Meanwhile, the variety of lake was presented as increasing firstly and then decreasing greatly. However, the change tendency of glacier and lake was decreased. The decreased areas were 823.3 km² and 239.5km² separately. According to the spatial bivariate auto-correlation analysis map, the negative correlation between glacier and lake was more distinct. In Tianshan Mountain, owing to the change mainly influenced by elevation, glacier was decreased and lake was increased. In Bosten Lake, glacier was increased and lake was decreased due to the change mainly affected by climate.

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The Response of Lake to Glacier in Akesu River-Kaidu River Small Watershed during 30
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The Response of Lake to Glacier in Akesu River-Kaidu River
Small Watershed during 30 Years
Hanwen Cui1,2 and Qigang Jiang3
1 Department of Computer Science and Technology, Zhuhai College of Jilin
University, Zhuhai 519041, China
2 Zhuhai Laboratory of Key Laboratory of Education Ministry’s Symbol Computation
and Knowledge Engineer, Zhuhai 519041, China
3 College of geo-exploration science and technology, Jilin University, Changchun
130026, China
cuicui_0504@163.com
Abstract. Glacier is a sensitive indicator of the climate change, and also closely related to
human beings. RS and GIS supply effective means to research the change of glacier. Those are
important methods for compensating the shortage of previous ones. Small watershed is the
basic unit of water circulation. Thus, the more reliable conclusion, which is the response of
lake to glacier, will be obtained by the small watershed. In this paper, dividing the watershed
into the smaller one, the Akesu River-Kaidu River small watershed was chosen as study area.
Based on RS and GIS, under the climate change from cold-dry to warm-wet since 1977, 2000
and 2007, the variety of glacier was shown as decreasing firstly and then increasing a little.
Meanwhile, the variety of lake was presented as increasing firstly and then decreasing greatly.
However, the change tendency of glacier and lake was decreased. The decreased areas were
823.3 km2 and 239.5km2 separately. According to the spatial bivariate auto-correlation analysis
map, the negative correlation between glacier and lake was more distinct. In Tianshan
Mountain, owing to the change mainly influenced by elevation, glacier was decreased and lake
was increased. In Bosten Lake, glacier was increased and lake was decreased due to the change
mainly affected by climate.
1. Introduction
In the Western China, the topography and cold environment supply the condition to glacier and lake
[1-2]. According to the previous research, under the global climate warming [3-5], the glacier is
decreased sharply.
Glacier is the important part of mountain environment and water cycle [6-9]. It has the great effect
on the water resource [10]. Watershed is the special natural region type, the water is considered as the
core. It is also the basic unit of the water cycle. Taken watershed as the study unit can compensate the
shortage of administrative division.
In the Western China, the first level watershed is too large to analyze the response of lake to the
glacier. As a result, those were divided into small watershed, so that the more reliable research will be
obtained.
CEESD IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 51 (2017) 012026 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/51/1/012026
International Conference on Recent Trends in Physics 2016 (ICRTP2016) IOP Publishing
Journal of Physics: Conference Series 755 (2016) 011001 doi:10.1088/1742-6596/755/1/011001
Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution
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Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd
1

In this paper, small watershed was chosen as study unit. Based on the RS and GIS, the dynamic
variety of glacier and lake was researched. The response of lake to the glacier indicated by the spatial
bivariate auto-correlation analysis.
2. Study area
In the watershed of the glacier distribution in the Western China, the Tarim River watershed is the
largest one. Many high mountains located in this region. The Mt. Qiaogeli with the elevation of
8611m, which is the highest peak of the Karakorum Mountain, is also distributed. So the glacier in this
region owns large amount and huge scale.
Among the source of Tarim River, the Akesu River is the largest. The small watershed, which is
composed by Akesu River and Kaidu River was chosen as study area (Figure 1). The region was
located in the northwest and north of the Tarim Basin, with temperate continental arid climate. The
south section of Tianshan Mountain is distributed in west and north of the study area, the high peak is
also in the region. Bosten Lake, which is the largest fresh water lake in China, is located in the east of
the study area. Its main recharge source is Kaidu River.
Figure 1. Study area
3. Method
According to the data about geology, geomorphology and hydrology, taking the Concise Glacier
Inventory of China as reference, Western China was divided into 16 watersheds, and 50 small
watersheds. Also, the ETM+ imageries and interactive interpretation technique were used.
This study uses MSS, ETM and CBERS-2 remote sensing imageries, with a time span of 30 years,
since 1977, 2000 and 2007.
Firstly, images were preprocessed on the ERDAS software. In light of spectral characteristics and
relative materials, combined with the previous studies, interpretation signs were set up. By using
interactive interpretation technique, three periods’ glacier and lake data were obtained in MapGIS
platform.
Secondly, the glacier and lake’s area change and spatiotemporal dynamic variety were approached
by spatial analysis function of GIS so that the variety principle and distribution can be realized.
At last, a method of modified auto-correlation analysis was introduced in this paper, which was
bivariate auto-correlation analysis method, used to investigate the spatial response of lake to the
changes of the glacier. In terms of the LISA (Local Indicators of Spatial Association) method, which
was put forward by Anselin [11], the local auto-correlation was chose to investigate the distribution of
response relationships.
Local auto-correlation index formula is as follow:
CEESD IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 51 (2017) 012026 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/51/1/012026
2

(x x ) (x x )
ii
p ij j j
j
i
IW




(1)
xi and xj refer to observation value in location i and j separately. Wij means to weight, and δi is the
standard deviation of xi. I’s value is between -1and 1. The value greater than zero indicates positive
correlation, less than zero indicates negative correlation, equal to zero indicates random distribution in
space. The bigger the absolute value is, the higher the correlation would be.
4. Result
4.1. Area statistic
During the 30 years, from 1977 to 2007, the area of glacier decreased firstly in 2000, and then
increased slightly. At the same time, lake increased firstly and then decreased. The decreased lake area
in later period (from 2000 to 2007) was 3.2 times larger than the increased lake area in former period
(from 1977 to 2000). Thus, during the research period, it had a tendency that the area of glacier and
lake became decreased (Table 1).
Table 1. The statistic of glacier and lake area in study area (unit: km2)
object type
1977
2000
2007
area change
1977-2000
2000-2007
glacier
5972.9
5064.2
5149.6
-908.7
85.4
lake
1282.6
1391.8
1043.1
109.2
-34.7
4.2. Spatiotemporal dynamic change
During the two research periods, according to the spatial distribution maps of glacier and lake’s
dynamic changes, glacier mainly located at high altitude, in the east and north of the study area, where
the Tianshan Mountain is. Lake was mostly distributed at low altitude.
In the former period, decreased glacier area (947.6km2) was as 24.3 times as large as increased one
(39.0km2). Significantly decreased glacier mainly located in the north of study area. And decreased
glacier also distributed sporadically in other glacier location area (Figure 2 (1)).
In the later period, decreased glacier area (278.8km2) was less than increased one (364.2km2).
Decreased glacier located sporadically along the glacier distribution area. Increased area mostly
located in the east of study area (Figure 2 (2)).
Lake located in the study area, except the southeastern region. In the eastern area, where the glacier
was large distributed, the lake was located in the low latitude.
In the former period, the decreased lake area (126.3km2) represented 53.6% of the increased one
(235.5km2). Decreased lake mainly distributed in the southwest and north of the study area, and
around the Bosten Lake. Increased area located in the north and south of the area, around the Bosten
Lake, and the flat site of western region where is the foot of the Tianshan Mountain (Figure 2 (3)).
In the later period, decreased lake area (360.3km2) was 31.3 times larger than increased one
(11.5km2). Decreased area distributed in the north and south of the area, and the flat site of western
region where is the foot of the Tianshan Mountain. Around the Bosten Lake, the decreased area was
larger than increased one obviously. Increased area mainly located in the north of the study area
(Figure 2 (4)).
CEESD IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 51 (2017) 012026 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/51/1/012026
3

(1) Glacier change from 1977 to 2000 (2) Glacier change from 2000 to 2007
(3) Lake change from 1977 to 2000 (4) Lake change from 2000 to 2007
Figure 2. Spatial distribution maps of glacier and lake’s dynamic changes
5. Response analysis
Precipitation, temperature and those combinations are the dominant factors influencing the dynamic
variety of glacier and lake. The most important factor for glacier is the temperature. The second factor
is the precipitation. Glacier’s melting is decided by temperature, and accumulation is decided by
precipitation. Making the comprehensive consideration, temperature, precipitation and elevation were
considered to analyze the response of lake to glacier.
For the past 30 years, the annual mean temperature and precipitation had a curve upward tendency.
They also showed the same rule in the 1977, 2000 and 2007 (Figure 3). The climate changed from
cold-dry into warm-humid. It can explain the dynamic rule of the glacier well. Glacier mainly
influenced by temperature in order that glacier gave priority to melt under the background of the rising
temperature. However, with the increasing of the precipitation, glacier accumulated a little in the later
period.
Figure 3. Annual mean temperature and precipitation change from 1977 to 2007
CEESD IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 51 (2017) 012026 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/51/1/012026
4

By means of the local index of the spatial auto-correlation analysis, the negative correlation
between glacier and lake was more distinct. It was manifested as glacier decreased, lake increased
(type one) and glacier increased, lake decreased (type two).
The response of increased lake to the decreased glacier located in the west and north of the study
area, where the Tianshan Mountain located in (Figure 4). Those lakes were recharged mainly by
melting glacier. Although the temperature was rising, but change of the lake was mainly influenced by
elevation.
The response of decreased lake to increased glacier mostly distributed around Bosten Lake (Figure
4). In this region, the terrain is flat so that the correlation was mainly determined by climate factors.
The Bosten Lake affected by its main recharge source, which is Kaidu River.
When the glacier melts to a certain degree, the ice sheet will thin out and the snowline will increase.
Then, it will become a new balance. It is reduced that the amount of the small glacier at low altitude,
which is most sensitive to the temperature change. In addition to slightly increased glacier, the
recharge effect of melting glacier for Kaidu River is weak than before. As the Kaidu River’s reduction,
the Bosten Lake will be decreased. Previous research showed that the flow of the Kaidu River was
reduced in 2002. That verifies the reason analysis of the response relationship in this paper.
Figure 4. The response of lake to glacier map from 1977 to 2007
6. Conclusions
(1) During the 30 years, the variety of glacier was shown as decreasing firstly and then increasing a
little. Meanwhile, the variety of lake was presented as increasing firstly and then decreasing greatly.
However, the change tendency of glacier and lake was decreased. The decreased areas were 823.3 km2
and 239.5km2 separately.
(2) Glacier was mainly distributed in the north and west of the study area, where the Tianshan
Mountain located. Lake was distributed in the low altitude of the small watershed beside of the
southeast area.
Glacier was decreased significantly in the former period, and then increased remarkably in the later
period. Those were located along the glacier distribution area and in the west of the small watershed
separately. Lake was increased significantly in the former period and then decreased remarkably in the
later period. Those were located in the flat site of western region, where is the foot of the Tianshan
Mountain, and around the Bosten Lake.
(3) Annual mean temperature and precipitation had a curve upward tendency. Glacier was
influenced by temperature more than precipitation.
(4) According to the spatial bivariate auto-correlation analysis map, the negative correlation
between glacier and lake was more distinct. In Tianshan Mountain, owing to the change mainly
influenced by elevation, glacier was decreased and lake was increased. In Bosten Lake, glacier was
increased and lake was decreased due to the change mainly affected by climate.
CEESD IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 51 (2017) 012026 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/51/1/012026
5

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CEESD IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 51 (2017) 012026 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/51/1/012026
6