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Seismic Shaking
China probabilistic sesimic hazard analysis(CPSHA)
CPSHA
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) considers a multitude of
earthquake occurrences and ground motions, and produces an
integrated description of seismic hazard representing all events (After
McGuire,1995) [1];
CPSHA is a model used for eavluating seismic hazard of China;
Modified the PSHA proposed by Cornell based on seismicity character
of China, main difference is the concept of spatatial distribution
function.
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 5 / 46
Seismic Shaking εof GMPE
Ground Motion Prediction Equation(GMPE)
log(Y) = c1+c2M+c3M2+c4log(R+c5expc6M) + εσ (1)
where, Yis the ground motion parameter, c1−c6are regression
constants, Ris the epicentral distance, Mis the magnitude of earthquake,
σis the standard deviation of log(Y), εis a random variable follow
standard normal distribution.
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 6 / 46
Seismic Shaking εof GMPE
Seismicity parameters of seismic statistical zones
Table: Seismicity parameters of seismic statistical zones
seismic statistical zone b a µ4Mu
110.625 4.742 1.154 8.5
220.628 4.828 1.02 7.5
1TanLu
2From mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze river to south Yellow sea
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 9 / 46
Seismic Shaking εof GMPE
Summary of ε
NPP sites generally located in low seismicity regions, then, in the
processing to define design basis ground motion(SL-2),taken εas 3 is
an accepted level;
It is adqueate to take a larger truncate level in SPRA of NPP
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 11 / 46
Seismic Shaking Scenario Earthquake
Scenario Earthquake
The earthquake threat is characterized by a single magnitude,
distance, and perhaps other parameters;
This allows additional characteristics of the ground shaking to be
modeled, such as duration, nonstationarity of motion, and critical
pulses.
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 12 / 46
Seismic Shaking Scenario Earthquake
Joint probability distribution of magnitude-distance
6.0
6.4
6.8
7.2 Magnitude(Ms)
010 20 30 40
Distance(km)
0.003 0.006 0.009 0.012
Distribution
Figure: Joint probability distribution of magnitude-distance
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 15 / 46
Seismic Shaking Scenario Earthquake
Mean and median of variable (M,R, ε)
mean (7.16, 29.6, 1.22)
median (7.30, 29.7, 0.99)
where, Mis magnitude, unit: Ms; Ris the projected epicentral distance
along minor axis of equivalent ellipse, unit: km; εis the number of
standard deviations that the ground motion is above or below the median
predicted motion for attenuation relationship.
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 17 / 46
Seismic Shaking Scenario Earthquake
Compare of UHRS, Trimean and Trimode spectrum
101
102
103
Sa(gal)
0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2 5 10 20 50
Frequency(Hz)
UHRS
Trimean
Trimode
Figure: Comparison of UHRS,Trimean spectrum and Trimode spectrum of
variables (M,R, ε) matched to target PGA
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 18 / 46
Seismic Shaking Site Response
Site Response
The presence of soils, geological sediments and weathered rock
(collectively known as regolith), can amplify the level of ground
shaking experienced during an earthquake, including the affect of
regolith on earthquake ground shaking is an important component of
any seismic hazard analysis;
Computed transfer function relating bedrock acceleration to surface
acceleration, response spectral acceleration and amplification factor,
through equivalent linear site-response analysis;
Verified the availablity of random vibration theory (RVT) method.
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 19 / 46
Seismic Shaking Site Response
The distribution of response spectra lead by shear wave
velocity
0.001
0.002
0.005
0.01
0.02
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.5
1
2
5
10
Sa(g)
0.01 0.02 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2 5 10
Period(sec)
Figure: The distribution of response spectra lead by shear wave velocity
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 26 / 46
Seismic Shaking Site Response
Compare the response spectra between best estimate
profile and random variation shear wave velocity(Vs)
0.001
0.002
0.005
0.01
0.02
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.5
1
2
5
10
Sa(g)
0.01 0.02 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2 5 10
Period(sec)
Figure: Compare the response spectra between best estimate profile and random
variation shear wave velocity
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 27 / 46
Seismic Shaking Site Response
The distribution of transfer function lead by soil dynamic
character curves
0
2
4
AR
0.1 1 10
Frequency(Hz)
Figure: The distribution of transfer function lead by soil dynamic character curves
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 28 / 46
Seismic Shaking Site Response
Compare the response spectra between best estimate
profile and random soil dynamic character curves
0.0
0.1
1.0
Sa(g)
0.01 0.02 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2 5 10
Period(sec)
Figure: Compare the response spectra between best estimate profile and random
soil dynamic character
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 29 / 46
Seismic Shaking Site Response
The distribution of transfer function lead by jointly random
Vs and soil dynamic character curves
0
2
4
AR
0.1 1 10
Frequency(Hz)
Figure: The distribution of transfer function lead by jointly random Vs and soil
dynamic character curves
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 30 / 46
Seismic Shaking Site Response
Compare the response spectra between best estimate
profile and jointly random Vs and soil dynamic character
curves
0.0
0.1
1.0
Sa(g)
0.01 0.02 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2 5 10
Period(sec)
Figure: Compare the response spectra between best estimate profile and jointly
random Vs and soil dynamic character curves
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 31 / 46
Seismic Shaking Site Response
Summary of site response
Acceleration transfer function result demonstrate that RVT method
could display the influence of soil on ground motion;
Surface acceleration spectrum indicate that the primary factor of the
uncertainty in site response is the shear wave velocity;
The main effect of uncertainty in profile model on site response
result, is extended the frequency range of peak;
The median, plus, and minus one standard deviation result of random
model basiclly envelope the result of best estimate model.
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 32 / 46
Fault Displacement
Fault Displacement
The provisions in chapter 8 and part of chapter 9 of IAEA SSG-9,
identified why and how to probabilistically analysis fault displacement
hazard of NPP site.
Information comes to light that requires a new assessment of fault
displacement potential to be made for a site with existing nuclear
power plants;
With the totality of the available data, probabilistic methods
analogous to and consistent with those used for the ground motion
hazard assessment should be used to obtain an estimate of the annual
frequency of exceedance of various amounts of displacement at or
near the surface;
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 33 / 46
Fault Displacement PFDSHA
Method
Youngs et al. (2003) introduced probabilistic fault displacement
seismic hazard analysis method in the procedure of evaluating hlw
repository site yucca montain, fitted the distribution of probability of
surface rupture and fault displacement, based on basin and ridge
province data;
Stepp et al. (2001) adopted PFDSHA method to evaluate fault
displacement hazard of 9 sites in yucca mountain.
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 34 / 46
Fault Displacement PFDSHA
Fault displacement hazard curves of yucca mountain sites
Figure: Fault displacement hazard curves of bow ridge and solitario canyon
fault(After stepp et al. 2001) [3]
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 36 / 46
Fault Displacement Example
Seismicity
G-R Relationship
log(NM) = a−bM
where, M is magnitudea,b are regression parameters, NMis the annual
number of earthquakes which magnitude equal to or larger than M.
Table: Seismicity parameters of West Napa fault
M0µ5β
5.0 1.8 2.1
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 38 / 46
Fault Displacement Example
Fault displacement prediction equation
Fault displacement prediction equation(FDPE)
log(d) = C1M+C2log(r) + C3+εσ
where, d is fault displacement, C1,C2,C3are regression parameters,
σis standard deviation of log(d),εis a random variable follow standard
normal distribution.
Table: Regression parameters of FDPE
C1C2C3σ
1.42 -0.16 6.82 1.20
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 39 / 46
Fault Displacement Example
Analysis
Along with the decrease of APE, the absolute value of fault
displacement is increased;
The larger displacement gradually concentrated on fault trace;
The displacement near fault vertix are relatively smaller than that on
middle part.
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 42 / 46
Fault Displacement Example
Analysis
log(d) and log(APE ) nearly follow a linear relationship;
The hazard curves nearly parallel, mean APE of 45cm is approsimite
to 0.0004, that is probability of exceedance of 50 years is 2%, be
equal to the probability of exceedance of ’large ground motion’
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 43 / 46
Fault Displacement Example
Discussion
It is nessary to evaluate the displacement on site introduced by fault
even if a small scale strike-slip one;
The distribution of fault trace is the input of PFDSHA, and have
significant influence to analysis results.
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 44 / 46
Reference
[1] Robin K. McGuire.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and design earthquakes: Closing
the loop.
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of American, 85(5):1275–1284,
1995.
[2] Robert R. Youngs, Walter J. Arabasz, R. Ernest Anderson, Alan R.
Ramelli, Jon P. Ake, David B. Slemmons, James P. McCalpin, Diane I.
Doser, Christopher J. Fridrich, Frank H. Swan, Albert M. Rogers,
James C. Yount, Laurence W. Anderson, Kenneth D. Smith, Ronald L.
Bruhn, Peter L K Knuepfer, Robert B. Smith, Craig M. DePolo,
Dennis W. O’Leary, Kevin J. Coppersmith, Silvio K. Pezzopane,
David P. Schwartz, John W. Whitney, Susan S. Olig, and Gabriel R.
Toro.
A methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis
(PFDHA).
Earthquake Spectra, 19(1):191–219, 2003.
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 45 / 46
Reference
[3] J. Carl Stepp, Ivan Wong, John Whitney, Richard Quittmeyer, Norman
Abrahamson, Gabriel Toro, Robert Youngs, Kevin Coppersmith, Jean
Savy, and Tim Sullivan.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses for ground motions and fault
displacement at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.
Earthquake Spectra, 17(1):113–151, 2001.
Jing Xu and Guo Xing (Nuclear & Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China)Evaluation of Seismic Hazard of NPP in China October 24, 2016 46 / 46
