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IMMANUEL KANT BALTIC FEDERAL UNIVERSITY
SEMENOV INSTITUTE OF CHEMICAL PHYSICS, RAS
PUSHKOV INSTITUTE OF TERRESTRIAL MAGNETISM, IONOSPHERE
AND RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION, RAS
RUSSIAN FOUNDATION FOR BASIC RESEARCH
ATMOSPHERE, IONOSPHERE, SAFETY
Proceedings
of V International conference
Kaliningrad
2016
2
UDK 550.51
BBK 552.44
A92
The conference is sponsored by the competitive part of the state task
№ 3.1127.2014/K “Physical mechanisms of the reaction of the upper atmosphere and
ionosphere on the processes in the lower atmosphere and at the Earth's surface”.
The conference AIS-2016 was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Re-
searches (Grant No. 16-03-20209).
A92 Atmosphere, ionosphere, safety / ed. I. V. Karpov. — Kaliningrad, 2016. —
549 p.
ISBN 978-5-9971-0412-2
Proceedings of International Conference "Atmosphere, ionosphere, safety" (AIS-2016)
include materials reports on: (I) — response analysis of the atmosphere — ionosphere to
natural and manmade processes, various causes related geophysical phenomena and evalu-
ate possible consequences of their effects on the human system and process; (II) — to
study the possibility of monitoring and finding ways to reduce risk. Scientists from differ-
ent countries and regions of Russia participated in the conference. Attention was given to
questions interconnected with modern nanotechnology and environmental protection.
Knowledge of the factors influencing the atmosphere and ionosphere can use them to mon-
itor natural disasters and to establish the appropriate methods on this basis.
Content of the reports is of interest for research and students specializing in physics and
chemistry of the atmosphere and ionosphere.
UDK 550.51
BBK 552.44
© RFBR, 2016
ISBN 978-5-9971-0412-2 © IKBFU, 2016
24
The Physical Bases
for the Short-Term EarthQuake Precursors Generation
4
Sergey A. Pulinets
Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences 117997, Moscow Russia
We can consider this year as a moment of enlightenment: no doubts left in un-
derstanding the physical nature of the short-term earthquake precursors (at least at
atmosphere and ionosphere domains). All pieces of the puzzle fit one another to
compose the complete picture of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Cou-
pling (LAIC). We will try to follow how the information and energy are transport-
ed from underground to the near-Earth space passing through several interfaces,
first of which is Lithosphere-Atmosphere.
Lithosphere-Atmosphere interface. If one will try to imagine how the litho-
sphere can interact with atmosphere, the natural answer will be — with something
of which atmosphere is consisting, i. e. with gases. But how the gases released from
the earth’s crust know that earthquake is approaching if they are released all the
time? It is well known that at the latest stage of the earthquake cycle the defor-
mation is not elastic but brittle what leads to asperities formation opening the new
ways of gases migration in the crust. The character of seismic activity described by
Gutenberg-Richter relation also called Frequency-Magnitude Relation (FMR)
log N(M) = a – b
M (1)
at the latest stage is characterized by b-value drop. Schorlemmer et al. [1] claim
that “lower than average b-values characterize locked patches of faults (asperities),
from which future mainshocks are more likely to be generated”. This is the direct
indication on the physical interpretation of the FMR. In [2] FMR is interpreted as a
power law (fractal) scaling between the number of earthquakes with rupture areas
greater than a given value and the rupture area itself, which has a spatial fractal di-
mension D ~ 2b. In [3] the authors interpret the low b-values as a probable strong
and homogeneous stress field near an asperity. It means that decrease of b-value is
equivalent to decrease of fractal dimension what can be interpreted as consolida-
tion and clustering of seismic activity (observed experimentally) and increase of
cracks formation what leads to higher level of radon emanation before earthquakes.
One can compare in the Fig. 1 the b-value and fractal dimension D2 drop before the
Kobe M6.9 earthquake on 17 January 1995 in Japan [4] with radon variations [5].
One can see also that the period of increased seismic activity before the Kobe
earthquakes starts after the period of seismic quiescence (SQ) when the fractal di-
mension growth. So we can expect that during periods of decreased b-value magni-
tude the increased release of radon will be observed as it happened before the Kobe
earthquake. Unfortunately, there are very few reliable measurements of radon on
earthquake prone areas in recent years.
© Pulinets S. A., 2016
25
FIGURE 1. From top to bottom: seismic activity in Kobe area for the period 1990—
1995; b-value variations for the same period of time; fractal dimension D2 for seismic activ-
ity in Kobe area; radon activity (in water) for the period from November 1993, the time
correspondence is indicated by arrows.
According to [6] radon is the main source of the boundary layer modification
through the ionization. Similarly to the effects of galactic cosmic rays on the con-
densation nucleus formation [7] radon produces the large hydrated ion clusters
leading to formation of thermal anomalies before earthquake and local modifying
the electric properties of the Global Electric Circuit (GEC). This we can call the
Geochemical interface which transforms the geochemical emanation of radon into
the heat generation machine (Geochemical/thermal interface) and background to
electromagnetic coupling of atmosphere and ionosphere (Geochemical/electromag-
netic interface).
Geochemical/thermal interface. Figure 2 demonstrates schematically the geo-
chemical interface which transforms the radioactive gaseous flux into exothermic
reactor. It is shown in [6] that effectiveness of this reactor reaches the value of or-
der of 1010. The source of energy is the water vapor in atmosphere. The energy re-
lease depends on the ion production rate and the final size of the hydrated particles.
The mentioned above effectiveness is achieved when the particles reach the size of
order 1—3 m.
26
FIGURE 2. Schematic presentation of the geochemical/thermal interface.
FIGURE 3. Schematic presentation of the geochemical/electromagnetic interface.
Radon activity Air ionization Ion’s hydration
Ion’s cluster growth
Latent heat release
Ground thermal
anomalies
Vertical thermal
convection
Formation of linear
cloud anomalies
Formation of
charged aerosol
layers
Anomalous surface
latent heat fluxes
OLR anomalies
Drop of relative
humidity
Air temperature
growth
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Geochemical/electromagnetic interface. The formed large cluster ions reach-
ing the concentration superior than the small ions concentration (sometimes com-
pletely removing the light ions) essential change of the boundary layer conductivity
what modifies all parameters of the GEC over the earthquake preparation zone
leading to the change of ionospheric potential as a final stage of atmosphere-
ionosphere coupling and creating the ionospheric anomalies. Two other possible
mechanisms could be considered — the direct effect of the anomalous electric field
penetration from the ground surface under special conditions of temperature inver-
sion during the night-time and effects of convective currents/fields due to uprising of
the charged clusters by thermal convection in the upper layers of atmosphere, their
separation due to different mobilities of the positive and negative ions. We leave also
the possibility of acoustic gravity waves generation over the large-scale ground sur-
face thermal anomalies but the modern experimental results do not demonstrate
any wave activity in ionosphere before earthquake. The schematic presentation of
the geochemical/electromagnetic interface is demonstrated in the Fig. 2.
The majority of existing models of the seismo-ionospheric coupling (see their
review in [7]) to reproduce the observed experimentally ionospheric anomalies be-
fore earthquake introduce manually the zonal electric field or current but cannot
say anything on these external fields origin. The proposed geochemical/electro-
magnetic interface which is the part of the LAIC model [6] provides such oppor-
tunity and this mechanism is presented in the Fig.4. where is shown the equatorial
ionosphere longitudinal (zonel) cross-section. Geomagnetic field is directed per-
pendicular to the figure plane.
On initial stages of ionization, and also under weak ionization levels the light
ions will prevail in the boundary layer of atmosphere what will lead to the general
increase of the bulk conductivity of atmosphere and consecutive decrease of the
ionospheric potential relative to the ground (left panel of the Fig. 4). Let it happens
during afternoon hours when the east directed electric field is present (white arrows
in the figure). The ionosphere is a high conductive media and it will not tolerate the
local decrease of potential, it will try to maintain its equipotentiality by creating the
field directed to the center of anomaly (grey arrows). In these conditions the “grey
field” (artificial) will be added to the “white field” (natural) at the west side from
conductivity anomaly, and subtracted to the east side of conductivity anomaly. It
means that the level of equatorial anomaly development (ratio of electron concen-
tration in the crests of anomaly to the concentration in the trough of anomaly) will
increase to the west from conductivity anomaly, and to the east from conductivity
anomaly the equatorial anomaly will be inhibited.
The other opportunity rises if the ionization rate is very high, relative humidity
is enough to create the large ion clusters, and calm weather conditions let to form
the large clouds of aerosol size heavy ion clusters. In this case we will observe the
amplification of equatorial anomaly at the east side from ionization sources, and
equatorial anomaly inhibition to the west. The vertical drift velocity is demonstrat-
ed by vertical white arrow in ovals, and one can see the difference on both sides of
conductivity anomaly.
28
FIGURE 4. Bottom panel — schematic conception of atmosphere-ionosphere coupling
through the global electric circuit: left panel — for condition of increased air conductivity,
right panel — for condition of decreased air conductivity. Upper panel — the differential
maps obtained from the GIM GPS TEC data for the period before the Wenchuan earth-
quake on 12 May 2009. Left panel — 2D distribution obtained on 3 of May 2009, right
panel — 2D distribution obtained on 9 of May 2009.
The most important factor which should be taken into account is that all physi-
cal precursors (at least considered within the framework of the LAIC model) are
not independent, they are elements of the open complex nonlinear dissipative sys-
tem. They should be considered from the point of view of synergetics and their
comprehensive analysis should reveal the directivity of the process of earthquake
preparation, so called “arrow of time” showing approaching of the system to the
critical point. Sometimes such directivity could be detected when multiparameter
analysis shows the time delays of one parameter uprising in reaction to other show-
ing the temporal chain of the processes. Such chain is demonstrated in the Fig. 5
presenting temporal/altitude development of several precursors before the L’Aquila
M6.3 earthquake on 6 April 2009 in Italy. The oblique dashed line in the figure can
be interpreted as the arrow of time.
The proposed physical bases give opportunity to realize the multiparameter
monitoring consciously and purposefully.
29
FIGURE 5. Temporal dynamics of radon release and variations of atmospheric and
ionospheric parameters before the L’Aquila earthquake.
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2. D. L. Turcotte, Fractals and Chaos in Geology and Geophysics, Cambridge Universi-
ty Press, Cambridge, 1997, 414 p.
3. D. L. Turcotte and B. D. Malamud, Earthquakes as a complex system, International
Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology Part A, Edited by Lee W.
H.
K.,
Kanamori H., Jennings P., Kisslinger C., Academic Press, New York, London, 2002, 14,
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4. B. Enescu and K. Itu, Values of b and p: their Variations and Relation to Physical
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6. S. A. Pulinets, D. P. Ouzounov, A. V. Karelin, and D. V. Davidenko, Physical Bases
of the Generation of Short-Term Earthquake Precursors: A Complex Model of Ionization-
Induced Geophysical Processes in the Lithosphere — Atmosphere — Ionosphere — Mag-
netosphere System, Geomagn. Aeron., 2015, 55(4), pp. 540—558.
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under atmospheric conditions, Proc. Royal Soc. A., 2007, 463, pp. 385—396.
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