No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
Climate Change and Sugarcane Productivity in Karnataka
Abstract
This study aims at understanding the relationship between climatic factors and its impact on sugarcane productivity in Karnataka. To understand the above objective we estimated the factors that affect sugarcane productivity. After appropriate statistical analysis, the strength of empirical results was checked through fixed effects panel regression model and Prais–Winsten model with panel corrected standard errors models. The data point has 592 observations corresponding to 16 districts of Karnataka, selected on the basis of the agro-climatic region to which they belong, with panel data for a period of 1966–2002. Since our prime interest was sugarcane productivity it was entered as a dependent variable in the models. Average rainfall, average maximum and average minimum temperature, area under irrigation and consumption of fertilizers are considered as explanatory variables. In order to capture the variability in the climatic factors it was decomposed into four seasons, viz., monsoon, summer, autumn and winter. The results conclude that though the average rainfall in different seasons has a direct positive impact, the rainfall in summer is significantly affecting sugarcane yield. The climatic variables of average minimum and maximum temperatures in different seasons have varied impacts on the yield of sugarcane. The maximum temperature in summer and the minimum temperatures in monsoon, winter and autumn have a significant positive impact on the sugarcane yield in Karnataka, whereas maximum temperature in autumn and minimum temperature in summer has negative relationship. The study suggests that adaptation strategies need special attention on technologies and management regimes that will enhance sugarcane tolerance to fluctuating temperatures.
... It found that variation in climatic variables have a significant contribution to increase or decrease sugarcane yield. Chandran and Anushree (2016) have assessed the impact of average rainfall, average maximum and minimum temperature during monsoon, summer, autumn and winter seasons on sugarcane yield in Karnataka. It observed that rainfall in different seasons show a positive impact on sugarcane yield, and maximum temperature in autumn and minimum temperature in summer season have a negative impact on sugarcane yield. ...
... It observed that rainfall in different seasons show a positive impact on sugarcane yield, and maximum temperature in autumn and minimum temperature in summer season have a negative impact on sugarcane yield. Chandran and Anushree (2016) have examined the effect of average rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature on sugarcane yield in Karnataka. It observed that rainfall show a positive, while average minimum and maximum temperature have a negative impact on sugarcane yield. ...
This study investigates the impact of climatic factors on sugarcane yield in 19 Indian states. Cobb-Douglas production function model was used to estimate the regression coefficients of explanatory variables with sugarcane yield using state-wise panel data during 1970-2017. Thereupon, it estimates the marginal change in sugarcane yield as 1 unit increase in climatic factors using marginal impact analysis technique. It was also projected sugarcane yield across Indian states for different years (i.e. 2040s, 2060s, 2080s and 2100s). Empirical results shows that area sown and value of production per hectare land have a positive implication on sugarcane yield. Climatic factors such as annual average maximum temperature, annual actual rainfall and precipitation show a negative impact on sugarcane yield. Sugarcane yield, therefore, decreases as increase in annual average maximum temperature, and annual actual rainfall and precipitation. Results based on marginal impact analysis technique imply that sugarcane yield is expected to be declined by 1.51% due to one-unit change in climatic factors in India. Estimates demonstrate that marginal impact of climatic factors on sugarcane yield was significantly varied across Indian states due to extreme diversity in climatic factors, geographical location, irrigation facilities, natural resources, farm management practices, use of advance technologies and fertilizer in sugarcane farming, agricultural development policies and agricultural R&D. Results imply that sugarcane yield is likely to be declined by 3.84%, 4.69%, 5.55% and 6.62% in different climate change scenarios in India. Thus, it would create extensive problems for sugarcane farmers, agricultural labours, sugar industries, consumers and government in India.
... Stalk Fresh Mass (SFM) and Sucrose Mass (SM) are important component of the sugarcane crop that determines its economic importance. A review of the literature shows that although there have been several studies on climate change and sugarcane response in India (Kumar and Sharma, 2014;Chandran and Anushree, 2016;Jyoti and Singh, 2020), there are only a few studies on crop simulation model-based approaches of assessment for sugarcane in India. These studies are based on an empirical approach using panel data, and regression analysis. ...
Multi-model climate projections are increasingly used to quantify the impacts of climate change on major staple crops under different climate change scenarios. Despite uncertainty associated with different climate projections, it helps in providing a direction and magnitude of change in crop production in future with different uncertainty levels. In this study, we used the CANEGRO-Sugarcane crop model driven by downscaled and bias-corrected simulations forced by different regional climate models (RCMs) for the mid-future (2040–2069) and far-future (2070–2099) under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to simulate the effect of climate change on sugarcane’s stalk fresh mass (SFM) and Sucrose Mass (SM) over major sugarcane growing states of India. The result showed, out of three phenological phases analyzed, two were found to be Shortened (planting to emer- gence up to 14.5 days and emergence to stalk elongation up to 6.3 days) and one i.e., peak population to harvest get extended up to 9.5 days under RCP8.5, far-future. An increase in SFM is projected substantially in the mid- future under RCP 8.5 for the tropical state of Gujarat (11.2–18.1 %) and the least for Odisha (6.8 % to 10.7). On the contrary, SM was found to decrease overall except for the states of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujrat, and Andhra Pradesh. The changes in the SFM and SM were found to be regulated by the increase in maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin), decline in solar radiation (Srad), leading to an increase in SFM and a reduction in sugar content. Therefore, decline in SM in the future which may cause economic loss as sugarcane is one of the most important cash crops of India. With uncertainties in the magnitude of change, the findings are useful for plant breeders and policymakers to develop appropriate strategies to minimize the loss and enhance sugar production.
Inevitability of climate change and stressors such as insects, pests, scarcity of water resources, and poor socio-economic condition of farmers have led to a substantial reduction in crop yield across the Indian subcontinent. The farming community follows adaptation measures to deal with these multiple stressors. Sometimes following the adaptation measures leads to a detrimental impact on crop yield, land, and soil quality. This raises the question of the effectiveness of these adaptation measures, that is, whether these strategies have enough potential to deal with the multiple stressors (climate, insects, water scarcity) or not. It requires a closer examination of the negative consequences of these adaptation measures, which is missing in the literature. To fill this gap, the current study assesses the success or failure of an agricultural adaptation strategy followed by identification of the relative importance of each strategy from the crop-loss perspective. We used logit model to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation measures i.e., crop diversification, sowing drought resistant, short duration crop varieties, drip irrigation, livestock rearing, crop insurance, use of groundwater for irrigation, increase in cropped area, and change in planting/harvesting dates towards crop loss of 400 farmers surveyed across Vidarbha and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra, India. Evaluation of adaptation strategies reveals that the highly practiced adaptation strategies, namely, crop diversification, sowing short duration, and drought resistant crop varieties turned out to be detrimental for crop productivity, while migration and increase in the cropped area benefit the farmers by reducing the crop loss. Findings emphasize that a thorough understanding of the repercussions of an adaptation strategy is required before implementation. Outcome of the study can facilitate the government and other decision-making agencies in prioritizing one strategy over another.
This research was premeditated to estimate the impact of climate change on maize productivity in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Chitral, Swat, Mansehra, Peshawar, and D.I. Khan Districts were selected from
different agro-ecological zones of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The climatic and non-climatic variables employed
for the study were area under maize, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation,
respectively. For statistical analysis, panel data record for twenty years (1996-2015) across five districts of
the province were scrape together from Development Statistic of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan Bureau of
Statistic and Pakistan Meteorological Department, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Hausman test recommended fixed
effect model (as opposed to random effect) as a fit model for given estimation. The major findings proclaim
that maximum temperature has negative impact on the yield of maize. Impact of precipitation show a positive
and significant contribution to maize yield. High temperature has deleterious impact on maize productivity.
Therefore, policy exertions needs to be concentrated toward impact of climate change on maize productivity.
Development of temperature resistant maize verities for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is also a good option. Moreover,
awareness among farmers on climate change is required regarding plantation of trees and afforestation.
This study provides an understanding for the relationship between climatic factors and sugarcane productivity in India. The main objective of this paper is to estimates the impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on sugarcane productivity. To check the consistency of empirical results, simple linear regression model, Ricardian productivity regression (non-linear) model and Cobb-Douglas production function models are employed. The data set incorporates 390 observations corresponding to thirteen states with panel data for 30 years during 1980 to 2009. These all models include sugarcane productivity as dependent variable. Irrigated area, agriculture labour, consumption of fertilizers, literacy rate, tractors and farm harvest price (at constant level) are considered as explanatory variables. Average rainfall, average maximum and average minimum temperature include as climatic factors to capture the effect of climatic conditions on cane productivity. These climatic factors are incorporate for three weather seasons such as rainy, winter and summer. Empirical results based on Prais Winsten models with panels corrected standard errors (PCSEs) estimation shows that climatic factors i.e. actual rainfall, average maximum and average minimum temperature have a statistically significant impact on sugarcane productivity. The climatic effect for various factors on cane productivity are varies within different seasons. Average maximum temperature in summer and average minimum temperature in rainy season have a negative and statistically significant effect on sugarcane productivity. While, sugarcane productivity positively get affect with increasing average maximum temperature in rainy season and winter seasons. The study concluded that there is non-linear relationship between climatic factors and sugarcane productivity in India.
The sensitivity of major food crops (rice: Oryza sativa, sugar cane: Saccharum officinarum) to change in temperature, moisture, and carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentration of the magnitudes projected for the region has been demonstrated in many studies.. Although climate change impacts could result in significant changes in crop yields, production, storage, and distribution, the net effect of the changes region wide is uncertain because of parietal differences and local differences in growing season, crop management, and so forth; non inclusion of possible diseases, pests, and microorganisms in crop model simulations; and the vulnerability of agricultural areas to episodic environmental hazards, including floods, droughts, and cyclones. Low-income rural populations that depend on traditional agricultural systems or on marginal lands are particularly vulnerable. The climate change may result change in temperature, precipitation, and season duration. This may shorten the ripening period of the crops. The shortening in ripening period may decrease the size, weight, and production of grains/fruits. The study reveals the significant impact of climate change on the growth and production of Saccharum officinarum and Magnifera indica.
This study used a quadratic programming sector model to assess the integrated impacts of climate change on the agricultural economy of Egypt. Results from a dynamic global food trade model were used to update the Egyptian sector model and included socio-economic trends and world market prices of agricultural goods. In addition, the impacts of climate change from three bio-physical sectors – water resources, crop yields, and land resources – were used as inputs to the economic model. The climate change scenarios generally had minor impacts on aggregated economic welfare (sum of Consumer and Producer Surplus or CPS), with the largest reduction of approximately 6 percent. In some climate change scenarios, CPS slightly improved or remained unchanged. These scenarios generally benefited consumers more than producers, as world market conditions reduced the revenue generating capacity of Egyptian agricultural exporters but decreased the costs of imports. Despite increased water availability and only moderate yield declines, several climate change scenarios showed producers being negatively affected by climate change. The analysis supported the hypothesis that smaller food importing countries are at a greater risk to climate change, and impacts could have as much to do with changes in world markets as with changes in local and regional biophysical systems and shifts in the national agricultural economy.
This study evaluated the effects of climate change on sugarcane yield, water use efficiency, and irrigation needs in southern Brazil, based on downscaled outputs of two general circulation models (PRECIS and CSIRO) and a sugarcane growth model. For three harvest cycles every year, the DSSAT/CANEGRO model was used to simulate the baseline and four future climate scenarios for stalk yield for the 2050s. The model was calibrated for the main cultivar currently grown in Brazil based on five field experiments under several soil and climate conditions. The sensitivity of simulated stalk fresh mass (SFM) to air temperature, CO2 concentration [CO2] and rainfall was also analyzed. Simulated SFM responses to [CO2], air temperature and rainfall variations were consistent with the literature. There were increases in simulated SFM and water usage efficiency (WUE) for all scenarios. On average, for the current sugarcane area in the State of São Paulo, SFM would increase 24 % and WUE 34 % for rainfed sugarcane. The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil. Considering the current technological improvement rate, projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 t ha−1, which are respectively 15 and 59 % higher than the current state average yield.
This paper estimates the impact of climate change on foodgrain yields in India, namely rice and millets. We estimate a crop-specific agricultural production function with exogenous climate variables, namely, precipitation and temperature and control for key inputs such as irrigation, fertilizer and labour. Our analysis is at the district level using a panel dataset for physical yield (output per hectare – gross cropped area) for the period 1966-99. Thus, we eschew crop simulation approaches that rely on experimental data. We do not also estimate reduced form relationships between economic variables such as profits or the monetary value of yield and weather measures. Consistent with other studies at the district and state level we find significant impacts of climate change (temperature and precipitation) on Indian agriculture. The implication of our results for inter-state disparities and corrective measures is elaborated.
This study is aimed at assessing the impact of thermal and moisture stresses associated with observed intraseasonal and interannual variability in key climatic elements on the nature and extent of losses in growth and yield of soybean crop in central India through the use of CROPGRO model. The crops are found to be more sensitive to higher cumulative heat units during cropping season. The yields respond substantially to temporal variations in rainfall (associated with observed swings in the continuity of monsoon). Prolonged dry spells at critical life stages of the soybean crop are found to adversely affect crop development and growth and hence the yields at selected sites. We have also examined the plausible effects of future climate change on soybean yields in the selected region based on simulations carried out for doubled atmospheric CO2 level and with modified weather variables using the available seasonal projections for the future. Our findings on the response of elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere suggest higher yields (50% increase) for soybean crop for a doubling of CO2. However, a 3°C rise in surface air temperature almost cancels out the positive effects of elevated CO2 on the yield. Soybean crops at selected site are more vulnerable to increases in maximum temperature than in minimum temperature. The combined effect of doubled CO2 and anticipated thermal stress (likely by middle of the next century) on soybean crop is about 36% increase in yield at the selected sites. A decline in daily rainfall amount by 10% restricts this yield gain to about 32%. Deficient rainfall with uneven distribution during the monsoon season could be a critical factor for the soybean productivity even under the positive effects of elevated CO2 in the future.
This study employed a Ricardian model to measure the impact of climate change on South Africa's field crops and analysed potential future impacts of further changes in the climate. A regression of farm net revenue on climate, soil and other socio-economic variables was conducted to capture farmer-adapted responses to climate variations. The analysis was based on agricultural data for seven field crops (maize, wheat, sorghum, sugarcane, groundnut, sunflower and soybean), climate and edaphic data across 300 districts in South Africa. Results indicate that production of field crops was sensitive to marginal changes in temperature as compared to changes in precipitation. Temperature rise positively affects net revenue whereas the effect of reduction in rainfall is negative. The study also highlights the importance of season and location in dealing with climate change showing that the spatial distribution of climate change impact and consequently needed adaptations will not be uniform across the different agro-ecological regions of South Africa. Results of simulations of climate change scenarios indicate many impacts that would induce (or require) very distinct shifts in farming practices and patterns in different regions. Those include major shifts in crop calendars and growing seasons, switching between crops to the possibility of complete disappearance of some field crops from some region.
Climate change impact studies on agriculture can be broadly divided into those that employ agro-economic approaches and those that employ the Ricardian approach. This study uses the Ricardian approach to examine the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. Using panel data over a twenty year period and on 271 districts, we estimate the impact of climate change on farm level net revenue. The paper contributes to current knowledge on agricultural impacts by accounting for spatial features that may influence the climate sensitivity of agriculture. The key findings reveal that there is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation - both in the dependent variable, farm level net revenue, and in the error term - and that accounting for this can improve the accuracy of climate impact studies. Climate change results in a 9% decline in agricultural revenues in the base model but incorporating spatial effects lowers this effect to 3%. The available evidence suggests that better dissemination of knowledge among farmers through both market forces and local leadership will help popularize effective adaptation strategies to address climate change impacts.
This study employed a Ricardian model that captures farmers' adaptation to analyze the impact of climate change on South African Sugarcane production under irrigation and dryland conditions. The study utilized time series data for the period 1977 to 1998 pooled over 11 districts. Results showed that climate change has significant nonlinear impacts on net revenue per hectare of sugarcane in South Africa with higher sensitivity to future increases in temperature than precipitation. Irrigation did not prove to provide an effective option for mitigating climate change damages on sugarcane production in South Africa. The study suggests that adaptation strategies should focus special attention on technologies and management regimes that will enhance sugarcane tolerance to warmer temperatures during winter and especially the harvesting phases.
One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of
observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at
the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes
in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures,
and increases in intense precipitation events. In addition, the societal infrastructure is becoming more sensitive to weather
and climate extremes, which would be exacerbated by climate change. In wild plants and animals, climate-induced extinctions,
distributional and phenological changes, and species' range shifts are being documented at an increasing rate. Several apparently
gradual biological changes are linked to responses to extreme weather and climate events.
The purpose of this chapter was to review the present conditions of the agroclimate in the Grand River Basin and to estimate the basin's future agroclimate under a 2 × CO 2 climate. An analysis of the land use in the Grand River Basin reveals that broad-based, family, mixed farming is being replaced by larger, monospecies cash crops which place greater demands on the environment. Agroclimate hazards associated with excess precipitation are heightened. To gain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal aspects of the Grand River Basin agroclimate under present day climate conditions and under a 2 × CO 2 climate, a series of computer programs were designed. The estimates of soil moisture deficits suggest that conditions of drought will be intensified under a 2 × CO 2 climate, yet the 1988 drought year will probably stand as a record dry year when compared with GISS conditions. The forecasted change in agroclimatic conditions could lead to a series of new crop options for the basin. The growing of tender fruit, as well as truck vegetables, may become a possibility and will be accompanied by new agroclimate needs. -from Authors
Sugarcane is a high water-requiring (with an average of 20 megalitres of water/ha) crop and 80% of its water requirement is met through groundwater. The Central Ground Water Board has estimated that only 162 billion cubic metres (BCM)/yr of groundwater is available for future irrigation, out of which around 40 BCM/yr is available in the sugar-producing states. Sugarcane cultivation in 5.0 million ha area will require about 100 BCM of water/yr. NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Satellites reveal faster depletion of groundwater stocks, especially in North and Northwestern India (18 BCM/yr). Under the depleting groundwater scenario, productivity of high waterrequiring crops like sugarcane can only be sustained using technologies economizing water and cultivating sugarcane varieties with relatively lesser water requirement. Drought-tolerant varieties could also be of advantage. Water-economizing techniques like drip irrigation, skip-furrow irrigation, trash mulching, irrigating at critical stages of growth and laser levelling of the fields have shown promise. Utilizing these ecofriendly and economically viable options and identifying areas (depending upon weather, soil and suitable varieties) where we can harvest reasonably good yields of sugarcane may go a long way in sustaining sugarcane productivity under conditions of depleting water resources. We can also enhance the yield of sugarcane (and sugar)/unit of water/unit area.
The impact of climate change will be particularly significant on smallholder and subsistence agriculture. Livelihood systems predominantly in low latitudes will be affected by major changes due to climate change. The farming system will be directly affected by changing weather patterns, sea level rise, and the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events. The productivity of livestock and fisheries systems will also be affected, as well as potential income from collecting activities in forests (Christoph Bals et al, 2008). It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access. Agriculture must provide all people with sufficient food to prevent extensive hunger and starvation. However, food security is aggravating day by day, resulting increase in hunger in the world. The impact of climate change on food security will be huge and substantive. After an increase of 0.74°C during the last century, globally averaged surface temperature is expected to rise by between 1.1°C up to 6.4°C by the last decade of the 21st century. This temperature increase will alter the timing and amount of rainfall, and the availability of water as well as weather trends such as wind patterns, and also the intensity and incidence of weather extremes, such as droughts, heat waves, floods or storms. The existing state of affairs suggests, there is an imperative need for a transition from the present agriculture to superior value foods.
Experimental yields from cooperative rice ( Oryza sativa L.) trials of the International Rice Testing Program network are related to major weather variables during reproductive and ripening stages. Based on the grain yield data from irrigated rice variety trials conducted in 40 environments during 1976–1981, regression models were developed and tested for predicting rice yields from total solar radiation and temperature data. The test sites were from eight countries in Asia, two from Latin America and one each from Africa and Oceania. Trials were conducted under conditions of good water control, optimal fertility and adequate plant protection and on sites with no appreciable soil stresses. Estimation of standard errors and evaluation of predictive ability of the formulated models are stressed. Among the models evaluated, a prediction equation based on radiation (RAD) and minimum temperature (MINT) during the ripening stage of 30 days after flowering demonstrated predictive ability. The environments ranged from 17.4 to 29.2°C for MINT and 315 to 637 mWh cm ⁻² for RAD. Predicted yield increased 0.41 t ha ⁻¹ (standard error of 0.092) for an additional 100 mWh cm ⁻² of total solar radiation, or an increase of 0.47 t ha ⁻¹ for an additional 100 langleys. For temperature, the change in predicted yield depended on the value of MINT. The rate of change in predicted yield was estimated as −2.10 + 0.075 MINT, i.e., the predicted yield change decreased 0.075 (0.0068) t ha ⁻¹ for each degree increase in MINT. Rates of changes in predicted yield were estimated at −0.68 (0.047), − 0.38 (0.025), and − 08 (0.024) for 19, 23, and 27°C, respectively. Model parameters were estimated by weighted least squares utilizing prior knowledge that yield predictions should decrease throughout the range of MINT from 18 to 28°C. Yield predictions are graphically summarized by yield response curves and isoquant plots.
Salient features of the long‐term variation of surface air temperature for India as a whole and for different regions of the country have been presented. Temperature data at 73 fairly widespread stations, for the period 1901‐1982. have been used in the study. Seasonal and annual temperature anomaly series have been obtained for the different regions. Such series have also been obtained for latitude‐ and longitude‐wise classifications. The long‐term variation in the temperature has been evaluated by linear trend.
The results indicate a slight but definite warming trend in the mean annual Indian temperatures. This warming is found to be mainly contributed by the post‐monsoon and winter seasons. West coast, interior peninsula, north central and north‐east regions of the country have shown pronounced warming in the mean annual temperatures. The post‐1940 cooling reported for the Northern Hemisphere is not conspicuous in the mean annual Indian temperature anomalies.
Wheat and rice are the most important crops from the point of view of maintaining a sustainable nutrition security system for India, a country whose population may reach one billion by the year 2000. The implications of climate change deriving from tropical deforestation, particularly as concerns temperature and precipitation, with reference to the yield of wheat and rice in different parts of India are hence being studied carefully. Any possible positive gain arising from increased CO2 concentration is likely to be offset by the yield decline induced by higher temperature and shorter growing period.
Projections of climate impacts on crop yields simulated for different General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios are used, in a recursively dynamic general equilibrium framework, to account for potential economy-wide impacts of climate change in Egypt. Comparing these impact projections to those obtained under a reference, business-as-usual, scenario assuming some moderate changes in the political, economic or technological spheres, indicates that global warming has potentially negative effects. The analysis is based on a global assessment of potential climate change-induced variations in world commodity production and trade. The Egyptian agricultural sector, and the non-agricultural sector to a lesser extent, are projected to be increasingly less self-sufficient. Specific potential adverse impacts are identified. The simulation results show that high-cost adaptation measures involving major changes in the agricultural system and practices may mitigate these adverse impacts. Stimulating economic development of the rural areas and creating appropriate conditions for effective diffusion and development of technologies — particularly for the agricultural sector — would seem a desirable strategy. Perhaps, more importantly, the simulation results show that the assumption of exogenously determined technological progress may be inappropriate, in which case the potential adverse impacts of a future warming of the global climate are likely to be fewer than is indicated in this study — if prevailing constraints on productivity growth in the major food and feed grains are ‘released’ by endogenous advances in technology.
This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources, water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas.
Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of
changes to date. We found that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception
of the United States, temperature trends from 1980 to 2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability.
Models that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined
by 3.8 and 5.5%, respectively, relative to a counterfactual without climate trends. For soybeans and rice, winners and losers
largely balanced out. Climate trends were large enough in some countries to offset a significant portion of the increases
in average yields that arose from technology, carbon dioxide fertilization, and other factors.
This paper investigates the impact of international migration on technical efficiency, resource allocation and income from agricultural production of family farming in Albania. The results suggest that migration is used by rural households as a pathway out of agriculture: migration is negatively associated with both labour and non-labour input allocation in agriculture, while no significant differences can be detected in terms of farm technical efficiency or agricultural income. Whether the rapid demographic changes in rural areas triggered by massive migration, possibly combined with propitious land and rural development policies, will ultimately produce the conditions for a more viable, high-return agriculture attracting larger investments remains to be seen.
Using the result that under the null hypothesis of no misspecification an asymptotically efficient estimator must have zero asymptotic covariance with its difference from a consistent but asymptotically inefficient estimator, specification tests are devised for a number of model specifications in econometrics. Local power is calculated for small departures from the null hypothesis. An instrumental variable test as well as tests for a time series cross section model and the simultaneous equation model are presented. An empirical model provides evidence that unobserved individual factors are present which are not orthogonal to the included right-hand-side variable in a common econometric specification of an individual wage equation.
The distributional impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture: A quantile regression approach. Madras School of Economics Working Paper 69
- C K Krishnamurthy
Krishnamurthy, C. K. (2012). The distributional impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture:
A quantile regression approach. Madras School of Economics Working Paper 69/2012.
Simulating the impact of increase in temperature and CO 2 on growth and yield
- A Chatterjee
Chatterjee, A. (1998). Simulating the impact of increase in temperature and CO 2 on growth and
yield. New Delhi: Indian Agricultural Research, M.Sc. Thesis (Unpublished).
Impact of Climate Change on Indian Economy: Evidence from Food Grain Yields. I. Centre for Development Economics Working Paper 218
- S S Gupta
Gupta, S. S. (2012). Impact of Climate Change on Indian Economy: Evidence from Food Grain
Yields. I. Centre for Development Economics Working Paper 218, Delhi.
A comparison of the effects of climate change on aus, aman and boro rice yields in Bangladesh: Evidence from panel data
- M D Sarker
- A Rashid
- K Alam
- J Gow
Sarker, M. D., Rashid, A., Alam, K., & Gow, J. (2012). A comparison of the effects of climate
change on aus, aman and boro rice yields in Bangladesh: Evidence from panel data. Paper
presented at the 41st Australian Conference of Economists (ACE), Victoria University,
Melbourne.
Climate change and agricultural commodities
- G Masters
- P Baker
- J Flood
Masters, G., Baker, P., & Flood, J. (2010). Climate change and agricultural commodities. CABI
Working Paper, (2).
Supply response of sugarcane in Andhra Pradesh
- M Ramulu
Ramulu, M. (1996). Supply response of sugarcane in Andhra Pradesh. Finance India, 10(1),
116-122.
The impact of climate change on crop yields in India from
- A Moorthy
- W Buermann
- D Rajagopal
Moorthy, A., Buermann, W., & Rajagopal, D. (2012). The impact of climate change on crop yields
in India from 1961 to 2010.