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An Evaluation for the Defense Portfolio of South Korea against North Korean Nuclear Threat
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A new line of nuclear winter research shows that even small, regional nuclear wars could have catastrophic global consequences. However, major disarmament to avoid nuclear winter goes against the reasons nuclear weapon states have for keeping their weapons in the first place, in particular deterrence. To reconcile these conflicting aims, this paper develops the concept of winter-safe deterrence, defined as military force capable of meeting the deterrence goals of today's nuclear weapon states without risking catastrophic nuclear winter. This paper analyses nuclear winter risk, finding a winter-safe limit of about 50 nuclear weapons total worldwide. This paper then evaluates a variety of candidate weapons for winter-safe deterrence. Non-contagious biological weapons (such as anthrax or ricin), neutron bombs detonated at altitude, and nuclear electromagnetic weapons show the most promise. Each weapon has downsides, and the paper's analysis is only tentative, but winter-safe deterrence does appear both feasible and desirable given the urgency of nuclear winter risk.
The authors estimate that as of mid-2017, there are nearly 15,000 nuclear weapons in the world, located at some 107 sites in 14 countries. Roughly, 9400 of these weapons are in military arsenals; the remaining weapons are retired and awaiting dismantlement. Nearly 4000 are operationally available, and some 1800 are on high alert and ready for use on short notice. This article reviews the locations of nuclear weapons in all nine nuclear-armed states, as well as those of US weapons deployed outside the United States.
While avoiding the sharp partisan and ideological tone of much of the recent discussion of preventive war,Preventive War and American Democracyexplains this change in beliefs and explores its implications for the future of American foreign policy.
The determination of legitimate first strikes has long been a focal point of international law. While the United States continues to recognize that positive results can be achieved through a policy of deterrence the administration concedes that deterrence can fail. Previous United States National Security Strategies (NSS) have relied on a policy of anticipatory self-defense to defend the nation. The current NSS states the purpose for the use of preemptive action is to prevent attacks from occurring without warning. This paper examines the application of anticipatory self-defense in the form of preventive war. The theory is examined under the concepts of imminent attack just fear and sufficient threat. Preventive war challenges the jus ad bellum criteria of just cause legitimate authority and proportionality/last resort. The review of Kenneth M. Pollack's argument in his book The Threatening Storm concludes that preventive war may meet the criteria of jus ad bellum. While recognizing that acts of prevention may in some cases be justified the recommendation is made to adhere to the United Nations Charter and not extend the right to conduct preventive or enforcement measures beyond the authority of the Security Council.
핵공격 시 민방위(civil defense)에 대한 비교연구: 북한 핵대비를 중심으로
, "핵공격 시 민방위(civil defense)에 대한 비교연구: 북한 핵대비를 중심으로," ≷평화학
연구≸ 제15권 5호 (2014).
Future Directions in the DPRK's Nuclear Weapons Program: Three Scenarios for 2020
- David Albright
Albright, David, "Future Directions in the DPRK's Nuclear Weapons Program: Three
Scenarios for 2020," North Korea's Nuclear Futures Series, U.S.-Korea Institute at
SAIS, 2015.
Theater Missile Defenses in the Asia-Pacific Region
- Kenneth W Allen
Allen, Kenneth W. et al. Theater Missile Defenses in the Asia-Pacific Region. A Hery L. Stimson
Center Working Group Report, Washington D.C.: Henry L. Stimson Center, June
2000.
The Good News about Nuclear Destruction
- Shane Connor
Connor, Shane, "The Good News about Nuclear Destruction." Threat Journal (August 6.
2013).