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Eastern Europe Semiconductor Technology and its Merging into the Globalization Trend

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Abstract

-
Eastern Europe Semiconductor
Technology and its Merging into
the Globalization Trend *)
Dr. Constantin Bulucea
IEEE Life Fellow
*) Presented, in part, at the Gala Dinner of the 2013 International
Conferences ESSDERC and ESSCIRC in Bucharest, Romania
38th ARA Congress, Pasadena, CA, 23-27 July 2014
2
2013 ESSDERC, Bucharest, Romania
First time ESSDERC in a
former communist country!
Generously sponsored and
organized
Conference at JW Marriott
Grand Hotel
Reception at Athenee Palace
Hilton Hotel
Joint ESSDERC-ESSCIRC gala
dinner at Stirbey Palace, Buftea
Hi-speed Internet access at 4x
Silicon Valley speeds…
Large world-wide
participation
Sessions (3 days), tutorials
and workshops (2 days)
Side enjoyment – 2013
George Enescu Festival
ESSDERC 2013 ESSCIRC 2013
Guest Speaker CB and his
Bread-and-Salt welcome
Selected 2013
ESSDERC-
ESSCIRC pictures
3
iPhone 5 “Teardown”
ifixit.com, 2013
Semiconductor Technology…
Apple iPhone 5 (Fall 2012),
our preferred illustration of
electronic miniaturization
Unique Requirements of
Semiconductor Technology
Based of the use of Single-Crystal
Semiconductors, mainly silicon
Electrical properties of semiconductors
controlled by ppm doping with impurities
Electronic Grade Materials
Monolithically created and interconnected devices
at sub-micron sizes Advanced Lithography,
particle-free “Clean Rooms”
Batch manufacturing done on large wafers Large
fabrication facilities, aka “Megafabs”, “Gigafabs”
A6 Processor
PC board with Integrated Circuits
(ICs), aka Semiconductor Chips
on both sides
A6 “System-on-a-Chip” processor
has ~700 million transistors, built
at 32 nm minimum feature size
by Samsung (Korea)
4
World Current:
~ 1 Billion Transistors
@ 32 – 22 nm
Most US companies
stopped manufacturing
at this level:
~ 100 Million Transistors
@ 180 – 130 nm
extremetech.com, itersnews.com 2013
Semiconductor Technology… (Cont.)
Prototype 450 mm wafer
75 mm
Microelectronica
(Romania)
~ 10,000 Transistors
@ 10 – 5 µm
(1981 and Current)
Extreme complexity
of everything
Billion $ to stay
competitive!
Microelectronics
Processing
Larger wafers &
smaller devices
5
Back to Old Romania…
Everything seen on this slide, including the rails, power lines, power and
control electronics, etc. was Made in Romania!
The policy of economic independence has been characteristic to
Eastern-bloc countries, all members of Comecon (Council for Mutual
Economic Assistance).
Electric locomotive made by
Electroputere Craiova (now
privatized) and used on
European, Asian, and Chinese
railroads
6
Comecon (
СЭВ
), 1949-1991
Objective - To Facilitate Trade and
Development among Soviet Union’s
Political and Military Allies.
Continuously redefined throughout the Stalin,
Khruschev, Brezhnev, and Gorbachev times.
Final agreement: Voluntary socialist
integration without involving the creation of
supranational bodies (“sort of”…)
Outcome - Coordinated National
Plans, Prices, Import/ Export Quotas,
Exchange Rates, etc.
Failure - Cooperation in Strategic R&D
Asymmetry
in size,
resources,
and military
power.
Comecon
meeting,
Integrated Circuits
Section, Berlin,
February 1986.
7
East-European Semiconductors
Microelectronics Facilities in
Every Country
Minimum fab cost only ~ $10M in
mid-70s (2” or 3” wafers)…
Jump Start with Western Know-
How Followed by Integration
Clean transfers of obsolete
technology: Ge BJTs in 1962, Bipolar
ICs in 1970.
Essentially Self-Motivated R&D
Otherwise near-flat compensation,
with top/bottom salary ratio ~ 3.
IPRS-Baneasa, typical East-European
semiconductor plant, now abandoned.
Windowless building in far left - IC fab started
in 1970 with Thomson-CSF know-how.
http://qsl.ro/yo3ccc
*) Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export
Controls (17 countries, including USA, UK, Japan,
Germany, etc.)
Co-Com*)Imposed Restrictions of Exports to Comecon Countries
Severely Restricted Communications with the West Isolation
Mounting Shortage of Hard Currency
Push for integration of all materials and tools.
Generally Hard Life, but still…
Producing and Keeping All Employed.
8
Top-Level Attention
Nicolae
Ceausescu’s
visit to IPRS-
Baneasa,
Romania,
1971.
qsl.ro/yo3ccc
All COMECON Countries
had it, following USSR
Nikita Khruschev’s visit to Design Bureau No.
2 in Leningrad for a demonstration of the UM 2
computer built with Ge transistors, May 1962.
The official decree (“postanovlenie”) to build
Zelenograd “for the development and
production of integrated circuits” was signed
three months later.
CIA.gov, 2008
MIT Press, 2007
Walter
Ulbricht’s
visit to Carl
Zeiss, Jena,
1968.
9
US vs USSR in Microelectronics
KP580BМ80A
(USSR 8080)
MMN8080
(Romania)
MHB 8080A
(Czech.)
MCY7880
(Poland)
KM1810BM8
(USSR 8086)
USSR Moores Law
US Moores Law
Fall of Berlin Wall
Intel, 2011, appended
Si-Gate CMOS:
Happy
Scaling,
Happy TCAD…
N-MOS
Strain Silicon,
Hi-K/Metal-Gate
Double-Gate, etc.
Pushing The Limits…
12
3
1962
Zelenograd dedication to
Soviet Microelectronics
An inspired tool for
performance prediction and
planning valid in the US
economy
Not a Law of the Nature,
like Newton’s or Maxwell’s
“Moore’s Law”: The
number of transistors
integrated monolithically
doubles every two years
Self-sustained
speed of progress
through use of IC-
based computers
in design, process
development, test,
etc., as they
became available
10
(1) ‘81 – ‘90: Growth, Decline, and Collapse
USSR: Microelectronics well established in Leningrad (Svetlana),
Minsk (Integral), Zelenograd (Micron, Angstrom) since the 70’s
LSI-based “K200” minicomputers in military and industrial use since early
70’s. At least one GCA David W Mann photo-repeater in use since 1973!
All Other Countries: Bipolar Logic (TTL), Analog ICs, and n-MOS/Si-Gate
Microprocessors in Production, CMOS in R&D
Carl Zeiss (DDR) photo-repeaters used everywhere. DDR: 1 Mbit DRAMs
with home-made e-beam writer and wafer stepper.
Communist Party’s Interfering with Technology Progress
Production Dependence on Western Imports
Stronger Co-Com Restrictions.
System Collapses Economically (~1990)
National Geographic, 1982
while, in the West, CMOS is scaled down to 0.5
µ
m (Intel X86
microprocessors); Japan takes over DRAMs; IBM’s PC
standard starts an industry; Sematec, SRC, IMEC, CIS consortia
take off.
Silicon Valley, filled with fabs, looks like an IC layout. Is seen as
an engine of growth that is the envy and obsession of the
rest of the world” (London Economist).
11
(2) ‘91 – ‘00: Rough Transient
zelao.ru
Zelenograd Opens up to All Russians
and to the World
Rough Transitions to Market Realities:
Dramatic Price Erosion
Semiconductor factories shut down: IPRS-
Baneasa, Tesla-Roznov.
USSR’s Integral (Minsk) under political
debate between Belarus and Russia.
DDR - a Singular Exception
while, in the West, CMOS is further scaled down to 0.25
µ
m
(Pentiun), still limited by lithography. Short-channel effects start
hurting.
Intel is most successful under Grove’s leadership. Japan builds
mega fabs in Kyushu, Taiwan and China follow.
Great enthusiasm over the software business… followed by deep
delusion as the stock bubble bursts in early 2000. Qualcomm (San
Diego, CA) sets up the fabless model of success.
NASDAQ Stock
wikipedia.org
NASDAQ Stock
Early Software, IC Design and Testing Startups with Westerners
Romania moving fast to front runner position in software.
Major Semi deals with AMD, Siemens, Motorola, etc. implemented right away,
benefiting from Germany’s unique political and economic conditions.
12
while, in the West, CMOS is scaled down to 22 nm (Itanium microprocessors), despite seemingly
unavoidable show-stoppers. Strain Silicon, HiK/Metal-Gate, FinFET/Tri-Gate, etc. save “Moore’s
Law” for a few more technology nodes.
Research consortia start losing membership (size misalignment).
Semiconductor manufacturing moves to Asia-Pacific foundries.
Silicon is gone from the Silicon Valley…
(3) ‘01 – ‘10: Toward New Equilibrium
Russia’s Micron Becomes Major Supplier of SIM and RFID Cards
with 180/90 nm Technology, Angstrom Extends with M+W Support
GlobalFoundries Establishes Major
300 mm Fabrication in Dresden (DDR)
Tesla-Roznov (Czech Republic)
Restarts IC Manufacturing, producing
for Freescale
Botevgrad (Bulgaria) and Tremosna
(Czech Republic) Plants Become
Global Sites of Integrated
Microelectronics (the Philippines!)
GlobalFoundries, 2010
Infineon, Freescale, Honeywell Open Development Sites in Romania
La commedia e finita!”
13
What’s Going to Happen in the East?
Digital VLSI will Remain a Very-High-Tech Commodity
Current technology sufficient “as is” for most applications.
Improved technology in perpetual demand for military/space
applications important and affordable to large economies.
Circuit/System Design Already Flourishing
Analog/Mixed-Signal Realistic, Challenging
Power Realistic, in Great Demand
Kroemer’s Lemma of New
Technology
“The principal applications of any
sufficiently new and innovative
technology have always been and
will continue to be applications
created by that technology.”
Nanotechnology
Some promises will turn real.
Others will remain “nano-hype”.
“Killer applications” - not yet
known.
Globalization
Ubiquitous, but with one known
problem: unemployment.
14
Nano-VLSI: A Reference to Keep in Mind…
engadget.com , 2013
Giga fab numbers (TSMC Fab 15) to measure against
Total area of site: 18.4 hectares.
Building area: 430,000 square meters.
Clean room area: 104,000 square meters (~14 soccer fields).
Cost: $10B  compare to $10M in mid-70s!
15
Nano-VLSI: A Lost Bet to Remember…
Theme: “What’s Beyond the Planar
MOSFET?”
Voting on “What Technology Will
We Be Using 10 Years from Now?”
Voting Option 1: CMOS.
Voting Option 2: Non-CMOS, including
nanoelectronics.
Voting Outcome: Non-CMOS!!
Overwhelmingly voted so…
10 Years thereafter: We are still
using CMOS!!
With no prospect for replacement at the
horizon…
2004 VLSI Symposium Rump
Session*)
More Realistic Predictions of
the Time (outside the Rump
Sessions)
There will be a post-CMOS
technology, but we do not know
what it will be.
Chenmin Hu
1 nm MOSFET will be a bigger
challenge than 10 nm in the
2020’s… but more due to
economics than to physics.
Thomas Skotnicki
*) Informal evening debate around one bottle of
beer/participant.
16
Globalization Problem… Jobs Left Inside
After Globalization
(“Creative” and Local)
Scientists, Engineers
Physicians, Nurses
Computer Analysts,
Programmers
Artists, Journalists
Lawyers, Paralegals
Bankers, Stock Traders
Star Gazers, Psychics!
Public Workers
Teachers, Tutors
Retailers, Hotel and
Restaurant Workers
Social/Charity Workers
Constructors, Plumbers,
Gardeners, Cleaners
Car Dealers, Realtors
Obvious Problem: Globalization-related unemployment of population
that cannot perform or find “creative” or local jobs...
Obvious Solution: Keep some manufacturing in the country!
70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Mean = 100
SD = 10
Skills Score
Frequency
“As is” “Retrained”
Skills Threshold,
“Creative” Work
Creative
Additional
Creative
?
http://www.ecs.org, 2004, edited
Skills Distribution
Local
?
17
New Romania: Baneasa Platform
I P R S
ICCE
IPRS Abandoned
Microelectronica ?
LED Plant Tire
Shop
Google Maps, 2014
Microelectronica
18
IPRS-Baneasa…
IPRS-Baneasa after 1989
Reorganized as a public company in 1991
Gradually shut down with mounting financial
debts
Privatized fraudulently in 2003 to Syrian
company Ogharit Trading, controlled by
Romanian businessman Omar Hayssam, all
for 204,000 € (value of land only = $30M!)
Omar Hayssam, arrested in Romania on April
5, 2005 for organizing the kidnapping of three
Romanian journalists in Baghdad, escapes to
Syria
Privatization contract canceled in 2007, IPRS
reinstated
IPRS declared bankrupt in 2008, assets
transferred to government liquidators
-~ 5 hectars of land dissappeared to
residential developers.
-Equipment looted or tossed as recyclable
metal.
Hayssam captured in Syria by the Romanian
special forces on July 19, 2013, incarcerated at
the Jilava penitentiary to serve a 20 years
sentence
Built in 25 years, ruined in 5
Wikipedia, Internet article “Romania Furata. IPRS…”, 2014, etc.
19
Microelectronica…
Brief History
3” fab built between 1975 and 1980, with
priority government funding, including $40M,
to produce LSI components and LEDs
Locally developed (ICCE) wafer technology and
imported assembly technology (SGS, Italy).
Locally built clean-room facilities (TCIAZ).
Equipment imported from the West.
Attempted to be revived after 1989 as a
Romanian technology treasure
A questionable idea in the context of future
globalized mega/giga fabs!
Privatized in 2001, with government
investment of 17M € for equipment upgrade
Grand Opening in May 2014...
Claims to be “one of the best companies of Central
and East Europe in the field of microelectronics”!
No product catalog, confusing development strategy
Even more confusing multitude of European
collaborations.
A mystery for most technologists…
Personal Recollections and Microelectronica S. A. Presentation, 2013
Microelectronica facilities preserved as
a Technology Showcase
Microelectronica
20
Microelectronica… (cont.)
Mystery Explained…
Officially organized in 2001 as a public company -
Microelectronica S. A.”, Bucuresti Sectorul 2;
“Working Point” at old Microelectronica site, Baneasa
Platform
Social Capital: 9,2M lei = 3,7M shares x 2.50 lei/share.
Government investment of 17M € for facility upgrade.
One “Physical Person” shareholder, Roxana X, with
3,317,020 (89.8%) sharesand 89.8% participation to profit and loss.
One “Empowered Person” (administrator), Liviu X.
Number of Employees (2012): 14.
2012 Business of 2.9M lei at Revenues of 40.9M lei (various
sources), 32.8M lei spending (salaries, travel, etc.), and
1.9M lei profit.
Essentially no manufacturing, substantial salaries for
a couple of employees, and good profit for one
shareholder – all for keeping the Microelectronica
Showcase in shape!
All obligations to funding agencies apparently closed with
the Grand Opening… No delivery obligations…
The LED part of old Microelectronica sold
separately to a tire service company
actually the only job creating deal!
Oficiul National al Registrului Comertului, Romania, 2014
Unveiling (what?) ceremony at
Microelectronica’s Grand Opening
Buzzwords,
Microelectronica Showcase
“ManuFuture Village”
Umbrella Initiative
Sustaining Hub, Green
Production
“LuminaLED Project”
“More-than-Profit Enterprise”
Pan-European strategic
alliance
Citizen Initiative through use
of volunteers
21
Conversion of Microelectronic Clean Rooms…
Microelectronica/LED
(Romania)
Washing cars in former
microelectronic-grade
clean-rooms!
Fujitsu and Toshiba (Japan)
Growing greens in actual
microelectronic-grade clean-
rooms, using hydroponics
The tightly controlled conditions
produce superior plants that can
be tuned for taste or for
specialized diets to meet
healthcare needs.
EE Times, 5 May 2014
22
Remember USSR “Moore’s Law”...
KP580BМ80A
(USSR 8080)
MMN8080
(Romania)
MHB 8080A
(Czech.)
MCY7880
(Poland)
KM1810BM8
(USSR 8086)
US Moores Law
USSR Moores Law
Fall of Berlin Wall
Si-Gate CMOS:
Happy
Scaling,
Happy TCAD…
N-MOS
Strain Silicon,
Hi-K/Metal-Gate
Double-Gate, etc.
Pushing The Limits…
12
3
1962
Zelenograd dedication to
Soviet Microelectronics
23
Now… Russia’s Moore’s Law?
2010 2020
1962
Zelenograd dedication to
Soviet Microelectronics
Russia Moores Law?
Unpredictable evolution
Government-sponsored
technology jumps
10,000,000,000
KP580BМ80A
(USSR 8080)
MMN8080
(Romania)
MHB 8080A
(Czech.)
MCY7880
(Poland)
KM1810BM8
(USSR 8086)
US Moores Law
Fall of Berlin Wall
Intel, 2011, appended more
Si-Gate CMOS:
Happy
Scaling,
Happy TCAD…
N-MOS
Strain Silicon,
Hi-K/Metal-Gate
Double-Gate, etc.
Pushing The Limits…
12
3
2014
?
Jump to 0.18 µm
with ST Micro
license
Slow progress during
transition to “Market
Economy”
Jump to 90 nm
with IBM
license
22 nm
and below
“New Cold War”
24
Will Russia Ever Catch up with the US?
Russia Does Not Have the Two Essential
Ingredients of Moore’s Law
The fierce competition within the US.
The extraordinary work productivity in profit-driven
US economy (a.k.a. human exploitation).
Russia Is Not Really Integrated into
Technology Globalization
Government can ban imports of specific products,
e.g. imports of 90 nm products to force the use of
domestic products.
Russia Does Not Actually Have a VLSI
Equipment Industry – They Import Key Tools
(Lithography, etc.)
Similar situation in key materials.
Recent Obsessions…
No one knows what is
contained inside the imported
microchips that we integrate
into some of our latest
weapon systems” – V.
Rogozin, Deputy PM, 2012.
Mikron now intends to introduce a
new process generation every year,
following up its 0.18-micron
introduction in 2007 with 130-nm
and 90-nm in 2008 and 2009
respectively” - Andrei Golushko, VP
Marketing, Mikron, 2007
Defeating common sense: Plans to
beat Moore’s Law by a 2x factor!!
Mikron Zelenograd, 2014
Most Probably Not, but
Do They Really Need It?
For the quality of life, it
may not be necessary.
For the military power, the
technology already
acquired may be sufficient.
25
Summing Up…
Interesting History, Obvious Progress in Recent Years
Future progress expected.
Successful Manufacturing Operations after Transition to
Market Economy
Growth expected.
At Least Five Areas of Realistic New Opportunities
One Area to be Avoided for Economic Reasons:
VLSI Nanoelectronics Manufacturing
Except when integrated in large economies or military powers.
One Problem: Globalization-Related Unemployment
The Case of Romania
IPRS-Baneasa
Microelectronica
The Special Case of Russia
Will Russia Ever Catch up with the US?
26
Increasing sustaining difficulties.
Manufacturing shut down regardless
of the 1989 events.
Remaining options
Continue government-
sponsored “research”.
Get employed or start a
business in another field.
Leave the country (the desperate
solution).
Footnote - The Doomed Fate of Semiconductor
Technologists…
Imaginary experiment:
What if these 100 never left
the country?
They would have not been
capable to compete in the
new order of Romania…
The situation there would
have remained
unchanged: only some
more unhappy people…
Enthusiastic start
Great profession attraction in the 60’s-
70’s: “the technology of the future”,
government support.
Opportunity to practice skills on state-
of-the-art semiconductor equipment.
Disappointment: price erosion of
electronic components through
mega-fabrication
Leaving the country…
There are ~ 100 Romanian
technologists in the Silicon
Valley in positions from senior
technologist to technology
development executive
They all contributed to the
prosperity of world’s
semiconductors… only to be
disappointed themselves 10-
20 years down the road!
27
For Further Reading
Nanotechnology Eastern-Europe
Technology
28
About the Speaker…
Constantin Bulucea was born in Romania, where he received the titles of
inginer and doctor-inginer in Electronics from the Polytechnic Institute of
Bucharest in 1962 and 1974, respectively. In 1969 he was awarded a
government scholarship for one-year graduate studies at UC Berkeley,
where he received an MS degree in Electrical Engineering.
His professional career spans 50 years, equally split across the Romanian
and US semiconductor histories. In Romania, he held the positions of
scientific director and director of the R&D Institute for Electronic
Components (ICCE) between 1974 and 1986.
From that period, his personal legacy includes the creation of the Annual Conference for
Semiconductors (CAS), a graduate course and book on Linear Integrated Circuits and
contributions to the technology of surface breakdown and hot-carrier injection in silicon.
In 1986 he defected to the US. There he created original sub-micron CMOS device/process
architectures for National Semiconductor (NS)’s analog and mixed-signal products. Before
that, he brought to completion Siliconix's architecture for the next generation of trench power
DMOS transistors. He has been active on the R&D arena as a direct contributor and also as
the 2003 chairman of the Advanced Devices and Technologies thrust of the Semiconductor
Research Corporation (SRC) and as a member of the Technical Committees of the Bipolar
Circuits and Technology Meeting (BCTM) and of the VLSI Technology Symposium. Between
2004 and 2012 he was the editor of IEEE Electron Device Letters (EDL) for analog and
mixed-signals technology. He has published over 50 technical articles in major international
journals and holds 67 US patents.
Dr. Bulucea is an IEEE Life Fellow and an Honorary Member of the Romanian Academy. In
2011, he became a Distinguished Member of the Technical Staff of Texas Instruments (TI),
as the result of NS’s acquisition. He retired from TI in 2012, on his 72nd birthday.
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