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Asimov's psychohistory: Vision of the future or present reality

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Alan Thomson at Adaptive Knowledge Management
Alan Thomson
  • Adaptive Knowledge Management
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Abstract

The science fiction writer, Isaac Asimov, based his "Foundation" series on the development of the science of psychohistory in the far distant future. Psychohistory permitted prediction of wars, revolution, religious development, and the emergence and fall of a wide range of social, cultural and economic groupings. Psychohistory used a statistical approach to predict the responses of very large numbers of people to social and economic stimuli, and was unsuitable for small groups or individuals. However, the futurist Alvin Toffler in his book, "Powershift", suggests that former large groupings of people are splintering into countless small, temporary, single-issue groupings. In addition, Toffler suggests that a knowledge-based approach, rather than statistical analysis, is the route to understanding changing social and economic conditions. It is argued that natural resource issues can lead to social and cultural disruption, resulting ultimately in environmental and Malthusian refugees, eco-theologians, ecoterrorism and environmental warfare. The writings of Asimov and Toffler are contrasted, to suggest that using AI techniques, especially knowledge-based systems, many of the features described for psychohistory in dealing with the economic, social and ethical issues are available, or at least are feasible, today. In addition, these AI techniques permit consideration of small groups or individuals as well as large groups.
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... Undoubtedly, psychohistory in China is influenced by the United States and France, but it is inaccurate to claim that psychohistory in China is simply their follower of them. As we mentioned above, psychohistory here is neither a realm with nearly deterministic power as Isaac Asimov (Thomson, 1996) painted in his science fiction nor a particular field in which Freud's methodology of psychoanalysis is predominant, but involves the combination of psychological and historical scholarship (Elovitz, 2018, p. 8-9). Additionally, in the same vein, psychohistory in China also refers to the use of various psychological theories and methodologies in historical studies. ...
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Conference Paper
Full-text available
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