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Russian renewable energy: The potential for international cooperation

Authors:
Indra Overland at Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Indra Overland
Heidi Kjaernet
Heidi Kjaernet
Heidi Kjaernet
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What is Russia's potential as a partner in the global race towards a low-carbon economy? This book provides a balanced analysis of Russia's impressive, understudied and sometimes surprising strengths in the renewable energy sector and raises the vitally important question of how key countries such as Russia will approach global climate politics and their own energy supply in the post-Kyoto world.
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... A perusal of a literature review of publications related to RE and geopolitics conducted by Vakulchuk , Overland, and Scholten (2020) reveals that though studies have been conducted at a global level and also from the perspective of various countries, the perspective of India has been found largely missing in both types of studies, with its mere mention in some global level studies (Overland and Kjaernet 2016;Scholten and Bosman 2016;Stegen 2018). ...
... Stegen (2018) in their typology of geopolitical winners and losers has listed India, China, and U.S.A. in the winners list. However, another GeGalo Index of Main winners by Overland and Kjaernet (2016) does not feature any of these three countries in the top eight winners. This throws up inconsistencies leaving a gap worth analysing, which this study aims to do with reference to India, hence adding to current literature. ...
... Finally, several authors also cover issues related to RE, energy security and geopolitics from the perspective of specific countries or regions, for example Lombardi and Gruenig (2016) for Europe, Jaffe (2016) for US, Escribano (2018) for the Mediterranean Solar Plan, Lacher and Kumetat (2011) for North Africa, Freeman (2018) for China, Overland and Kjaernet (2016), Boute and Willems (2012) for Russia, Luomi (2016), Verdeil (2014) and Lima (2012) for certain Gulf countries. The perspective of India has been found to be largely missing which we aim to add to literature through our study. ...
Renewable energy made in India: navigating geopolitics in achieving sustainability
Article
Full-text available
  • Apr 2024
The energy sector is the source of around three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions according to IEA, and the focus of SDG 7- Affordable and Clean Energy. Centred around this is this conceptual paper with the objective of first understanding the developments related to the renewable energy (RE) sector, with special reference to India especially in the context of the current geopolitical factors. Next, the paper also aims to analyse the implications of these developments for India and the world. The geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine have led to a setback in the global RE goals as compared to the targets especially in India. As the third largest energy consumer which is dependent on energy imports, India has been trying to meet its energy needs of the present while investing heavily in RE for a sustainable and energy secure future. Consequently, India is emerging as one of the top five RE players contributing majorly to global sustainability and energy security for its future while skilfully managing the current geopolitical crisis and the ensuing challenges.
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... This transition may change international demand for the products of Russian oil companies, in addition to putting pressure on the companies to reduce their direct emissions. How Russia and its oil companies deal with this and other changes will be one determinant of the country's strength in global affairs (Overland and Kjaernet 2009). ...
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... One of the last events confirming Russia's commitment to environmentally sound development was the signing of the Paris Climate Agreement on April 22, 2016, where we commit ourselves to carrying out a set of measures for technological rearmament and adaptation to climate change, reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Given that about 70% of carbon dioxide production in Russia is accounted for by energy, a large part of the activities should be aimed at the development of environmentally friendly alternative energy (Overland and Kjaernet, 2016). ...
Energy Security, Economics and Environment in the Eurasian Economic Union: Current and Future Scenarios
Article
Full-text available
  • May 2020
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries have actively taken a direction to promote political initiatives to strengthen energy security. Major policy initiatives are programmes to increase domestic renewable energy production, improve energy efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. This paper aims to show how energy security indicators namely primary energy intensity of GDP (EI), primary energy dependence (PE), net import dependence (ID), supplier dependency (SD) vary in a range of energy security policies - Renewable Energy Development (REN), Energy Efficiency Reduction (EFF), and Greenhouse Gas Reduction (GHG). Furthermore, factors preventing the development of non-traditional and renewable sources of energy in countries of Eurasian Economic Union are considered. Mechanisms of solving existing contradictions are proposed. Particular attention is paid to the need to include environmental costs and pollution losses in economic analysis, which will improve the competitiveness of alternative energy sources. The necessity of accelerated development of alternative energy to increase energy supply, energy saving, energy and environmental security is shown.Keywords: renewable energy, energy security, sustainable developmentJEL Classifications: 0130, Q400, Q430DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.9127
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... There is a growing body of experts and scholars who argue that a global transition to renewable energy will lead to a geopolitical and strategic reshuffle, with the emergence of new winners and losers (see Mecklin [119], De Ridder [69], Sweijs et al. [70], Overland and Kjaernet [120]). ...
Renewable energy and geopolitics: A review
Article
Full-text available
  • Apr 2020
  • RENEW SUST ENERG REV
This article reviews the literature on the geopolitics of renewable energy. It finds that while the roots of this literature can be traced back to the 1970s and 1980s, most of it has been published from 2010 onwards. The following aggregate conclusions are extracted from the literature: renewable energy has many advantages over fossil fuels for international security and peace; however, renewable energy is thought to exacerbate security risks and geopolitical tensions related to critical materials and cybersecurity; former hydrocarbon exporters will likely be the greatest losers from the energy transition. Many of the reviewed publications share some weaknesses: a failure to define “geopolitics”; an unwarranted assumption that very little has been published in the field previously; limited use of established forecasting, scenario-building or foresight methodologies; a lack of recognition of the complexity of the field; a lack of theorisation. Most authors do not distinguish between the geopolitical risks associated with different types of renewable energy, and only a few distinguish clearly between the geopolitics of the transitional phase and the geopolitics of a post-energy transition world. A disproportionately large part of the literature is dedicated to critical materials and cybersecurity, while only a small part concerns the decline of former fossil fuel powers. Among those publications that do discuss the decline of fossil fuels, there is also an over-focus on oil producers and a lack of attention to the countries that rely heavily on coal, for example Australia, China, Germany, Indonesia, Poland and the United States. The article can be freely accessed here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032119307555
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... Nevertheless, there are renewable energy projects in Eurasia (e.g., Doukas et al. 2012;Clarke 2014, 2016;Martinot 1999;Øverland and Kjaernet 2009), as Table 20.3 shows, such as tidal wave energy at the Caspian Sea (Amirinia, Kamranzad, and Mafi 2017;Rusu and Onea 2013) and solar energy (Abbasov 2016;Boute 2016;Nurlankyzy et al. 2016). ...
The Energy Politics of Russia and Eurasia
Chapter
Full-text available
  • Aug 2019
As one of the world’s largest fossil fuel exporters, Russia is a key player in the global energy arena. It also plays a unique role in the former Soviet Union (FSU) as the largestproducer and exporter, as well as an important transit country. Even though Soviet-era dependencies have been progressively eroding, Soviet infrastructural, economic, and political legacies continue to influence energy relations in the FSU. This chapter’s review of the literature reveals clear differences among the research foci of various academic communities. Research has often focused on policy and technical rather than theoretical issues, continuing to focus on traditional geopolitical thinking rather than on future-oriented concerns. Promising topics for further research include deeper understanding of the inner workings of decision-making processes and what global changes, such as the low carbon transition, could mean for the region.
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... For Colombia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and the USA, distance rules out transitioning from the export of fossil fuels to the export of renewable energy to the EU. Although Russia shares direct borders with the EU, Russia's options are also limited, as most of its landmass is located far away from the main demographic and economic centres of the EU and because there are internal Russian policy constraints on the development of renewable energy except for large-scale hydropower (Overland & Kjaernet, 2009). ...
EU Climate and Energy Policy: New Challenges for Old Energy Suppliers
Chapter
Full-text available
  • Jan 2019
Climate policy will transform the EU energy demand mix. This has implications for the main suppliers of fossil fuels to the EU, foremost among which are Algeria, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA. Norway has a better starting point for adapting to changing EU energy demand than the other energy suppliers and therefore represents a best-case scenario. Whatever Norway fails to do, the other countries are even less likely to achieve. The question is whether Norway has been quick enough to exploit the opportunities to play a proactive role in the EU’s energy transition. This chapter argues that it has not, dragging its feet on natural gas vehicles, Norwegian wind power, electricity interconnectors, green battery development and mixing of hydrogen into natural gas. Some possible reasons for the tardiness are Norway’s dual resource course of oil and hydropower, carbon lock-in, energy populism, resource nationalism and blind spots in the perception of Norway’s place in international climate and energy policy.
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Geopolitics and Development in a Steady-State World
Chapter
  • May 2018
This chapter considers the impact the implementation of steady-state energy policies will bear on geopolitics and development. The analysis explores avenues of change, traces central issues of concern, and provides a separate discussion on the geopolitical risks of the energy transition. In doing so, it also studies the geopolitics of renewable energy; instead of transposing mainstream understandings of energy geopolitics to renewables, the chapter provides a more nuanced account of a renewable energy-run world, setting out the features of renewable energy that set it apart from oil and gas geopolitics. With regard to development, the analysis underscores the ways in which steady-state energy policies break the vicious links between fossil fuels and underdevelopment, respond to the energy needs of the Global South, and constitute developmental springboards.
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The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy
Article
Full-text available
  • Jan 2017
For a century, the geopolitics of energy has been synonymous with the geopolitics of oil and gas. However, geopolitics and the global energy economy are both changing. The international order predominant since the end of World War II faces mounting challenges. At the same time, renewable energy is growing rapidly. Nevertheless, the geopolitics of renewable energy has received relatively little attention, especially when considering the far-reaching consequences of a global shift to renewable energy. The paper starts with a discussion of seven renewable energy scenarios for the coming decades: the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2016, the EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2016, IRENA’s REmap 2016, Bloomberg’s New Energy Outlook 2016, BP’s Energy Outlook 2016, Exxon-Mobil’s Outlook for Energy 2016 and the joint IEA and IRENA G20 de-carbonization scenario. Some of these are forecasting while others are backcasting scenarios. While all the forecasting scenarios envisage growth in renewable energy, none anticipate a revolution in which renewable energy use surpasses consumption of any of the fossil fuels in the next several decades. In contrast, the backcasting scenarios posit a future in which the world employs a radically different energy mix where consumption of renewables eventually surpasses that of fossil fuels. In all three backasting scenarios covered here, the share of renewables of total primary energy reaches 30-45% in 2035 or 2040 and 50-70% in 2050.
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The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy
Technical Report
Full-text available
  • Jun 2017
For a century, the geopolitics of energy has been synonymous with the geopolitics of oil and gas. However, geopolitics and the global energy economy are both changing. The international order predominant since the end of World War II faces mounting challenges. At the same time, renewable energy is growing rapidly. Nevertheless, the geopolitics of renewable energy has received relatively little attention, especially when considering the far-reaching consequences of a global shift to renewable energy. The paper starts with a discussion of seven renewable energy scenarios for the coming decades: the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2016, the EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2016, IRENA’s REmap 2016, Bloomberg’s New Energy Outlook 2016, BP’s Energy Outlook 2016, Exxon-Mobil’s Outlook for Energy 2016 and the joint IEA and IRENA G20 de-carbonization scenario. The paper then discusses seven mechanisms through which renewables could shape geopolitics: Critical materials supply chains, technology and finance, new resource curse, electric grids, reduced oil and gas demand, avoided climate change, and sustainable energy access.
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Energy Elites in Central Asia
Article
Full-text available
  • Jan 2012
This paper is intended as a preliminary guide to the energy elites of the three main oil and gas exporting countries in Central Asia, and as a practical tool for foreign actors seeking to understand who is who, who makes decisions and who their interlocutors are in those countries. Appendix 1 provides extensive tables listing identified members of the elites in the three countries and some of their main attributes. These listings are meant to be used as a reference work. In addition to functioning as a reference work, the paper attempts to extract some comparative points about the energy elites of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. First of all, it is clear that they share some important features. They are largely technocratic, in the sense that a majority in all three countries have higher technical education that is directly relevant for the petroleum sector. Most have studied in their own home country, Russia or other post-Soviet countries, and are more than 45 years of age. There are however also important differences among the countries. For instance, Kazakhstan’s energy elite is younger than that of the other two, and more of them have studied in Western Europe or the USA. Business and politics are closely linked in all three countries, but this is expressed in different ways. In Turkmenistan, it is difficult to identify a domestic business elite distinct from politics, because of the rigid state control over business development. The Turkmen energy elite is also closely associated with the ruling party, the Democratic Party. Similarly close links between the ruling party and the energy elite are evident in Kazakhstan, where most members of the energy elite are affiliated with the Nur Otan party. The energy elite in Kazakhstan was previously more independent, but this has changed with the establishment of a dominant political party. The Kazakh business elite, however, is not affiliated with the ruling party to the same degree as in Turkmenistan. This can be explained by the dominant role of the energy sector in the national economy, which provides impetus for political control over energy resources. In both Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, the state still controls the energy resources and related companies, directly and in detail. The importance of family connections within and between the different elites is evident in all three countries, with several cases of close relatives of political figures controlling key businesses or energy positions.
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Russia's Kosovo: A Critical Geopolitics of the August 2008 War over South Ossetia
Article
Full-text available
  • Nov 2008
A noted political geographer presents an analysis of the August 2008 South Ossetian war. He analyzes the conflict from a critical geopolitical perspective sensitive to the importance of localized context and agency in world affairs and to the limitations of state-centric logics in capturing the connectivities, flows, and attachments that transcend state borders and characterize specific locations. The paper traces the historical antecedents to the August 2008 conflict and identifies major factors that led to it, including legacies of past violence, the Georgian president's aggressive style of leadership, and renewed Russian "great power" aspirations under Putin. The Kosovo case created normative precedents available for opportunistic localization, The author then focuses Oil the events of August 2008 and the competing storylines promoted by the Georgian and Russian governments. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H10, 131, O18, P30. 7 figures, 2 tables, 137 references.
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Efficiency of wind energy utilization for electricity and heat supply in northern regions of Russia
Article
Full-text available
  • Sep 2004
  • RENEW ENERG
The paper describes a method for assessing the economic efficiency of wind energy utilization within small autonomous systems for both electricity and heat supply. The obtained analytical solution allows the simplification of calculations in comparison to the methods of chronological modeling and numerical algorithms for application of the convolution method.The economic effect of using wind turbines is assessed for remote communities of the extreme north of Russia with a maximum electric load of 200 kW for the turbines with a capacity from 30 to 800 kW, taking into account variation of possible growth rates of fossil fuel price for back-up sources of electric and heat energy.The calculations performed have shown that at the existing and forecasted rates of fuel price escalation, the economic effect of using surplus (as a result of mismatch in production and consumption) electric energy for heat supply will be 1.5–2.0 times higher. In this case, the optimal capacity of wind turbines can substantially exceed electric load power (two to four times).
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Migration and restructing in Post-Soviet Russia
Article
  • Jan 2001
When Russia became independent in 1992, it inherited from the Soviet Union a spatial distribution of its population that was incompatible with its emerging market economy. Internally the largest migration stream has been out of the overpopulated Russian north and Far East toward central Russia. At other geographic scales, as a result of decades of Soviet labor policy, there were numerous cities and towns in Russia that had many more workers than they would under market conditions. Simultaneously, the breakup of the Soviet Union caused the large-scale departure of Russians, Russian speakers, and others out of the non-Russian states of the former Soviet Union to Russia. The lifting of exit restrictions did not cause the mass exodus that many had predicted, but it did allow the emigration of many highly skilled persons who could have played a role in the country's transition. As a result of the deterioration of the economy and the opening of the economy to the outside world, there has been a rise in the trafficking of Russian women to the West. With the relaxation of border restrictions, there has been a large, undetermined increase in the amount of illegal migration in Russia. These different migration streams are affected by, and are simultaneously affecting Russia's post-Soviet transition to a market economy and democratic society. In this article I examine the various migration streams that were set off by their breakup of the Soviet Union and the beginning of the transition period, with an emphasis upon the impact both nationally and locally.
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The Nordic Electricity Market. Robust by Design?
Article
  • Dec 2006
This chapter provides an overview of the evolution and subsequent expansion of the Nordic market-encompassing Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden, and considered among the most successful competitive markets in the world. The Nordic market experienced and survived a severe hydro shortage during 2002-2003, where reservoirs in the hydro-dominated system fell to unprecedented low levels. But despite this natural shock, the market held together, without mandatory rationing, blackouts, price manipulation, or major financial ruin of any of the players. This, in contrast to other markets is an important hallmark of the Nordic market. However, fears regarding supply, security, and adequacy are likely to be unfounded. Nevertheless, as inherited overcapacity is eroded and new market-based environmental regulation takes effect, tighter market conditions are to be expected. It is then crucial that retail markets be fully developed to allow consumers to adequately protect themselves from occurrences of price spikes. There seems to be four main factors explaining this: 1) the market design of the Nordic market is simple but sound and to a large extent made possible by the large share of hydropower, 2) dilution of market power, attained by the integration of the four national markets into a single Nordic market, has been rather successful, 3) there has been a strong political support for a market-based electricity supply system without intervention in the market mechanisms in stressful situations, 4) the Nordic power industry seems to have a strong voluntary informal commitment to public service.
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Electricity market reform: The international experience
Conference Paper
  • Jan 2006
For over two decades, policy makers and regulators in a number of countries around the world have been grappling with market reform, liberalization, restructuring, and privatization issues. While a great deal has been learned in the process and a blueprint for implementation has emerged, successful market design still remains partly art and partly science. The international experience to date indicates that in most cases, initial market reform leads to unintended consequences, which must be addressed in subsequent "reform of the reforms." Aside from this, a number of new issues and concerns have emerged challenging the wisdom and the feasibility of introducing market reform in other markets. (11 pages)
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Russian Nature: Exploring the Environmental Consequences of Societal Change
Book
  • Oct 2005
The book povides a detailed assessment of the changing relationship between Russian society and the wider environment since the fall of the Soviet Union. It highlights the need to critically evaluate assumptions regarding the post-Soviet environment, in order to move beyond generalization and engage meaningfully with the particularities of Russia's contemporary environmental situation. The book begins by focusing on the nature of Soviet environmental legacies as a necessary backdrop to the remainder of the study. This is followed by a general examination of the relationship between economic change and pollution output during the course of the 1990s. Further chapters provide in depth analysis of recent legislative and policy developments in the area of environmental protection and an exploration of emerging pollution and environmental quality trends at both the national and regional level. In addition, the book highlights pressures that are related to Russia's engagement with the global economy.
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