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Teaching takes off: Flight simulators for management education
... These range from the misalignment of interests between different internal [11] and external [12] stakeholders to economic arguments (striking for a balance between over-and underinvestments [13]) and willingness to pay [14]; from social and behavioural ones (e.g., 'cover-my-ass-security' strategy, when a lot of resources are spent on a security issue by managing defenders to show to have done their best and protect themselves from future criticism [15]) to just psychological ones, such as fear, uncertainty and doubt [16]. Overall, these reasons can be traced back to the challenges of understanding and managing complex systems [17][18][19][20]. ...
... Research shows that people experience difficulties when making decisions in complex dynamic environments [17,28], such as in the management of cyber-security, and tend to use simple mental rules called "heuristics" [17,18,20]. Heuristics can be defined as "adaptive tools that ignore information to make fast and frugal decisions that are accurate and robust under conditions of uncertainty" [29]. ...
... We can also say that heuristics are practical approaches to problem-solving in complex situations, far from being ideal or rational ones [30][31][32]. In fact, most of the time, they do not lead to optimal decisions [17,18,20,[33][34][35]. However, heuristics are usually adequate for achieving immediate, short-term objectives or approximations [30][31][32], which may even be sufficient in cases in which optimal solutions are hard to find. ...
Cyber-security incidents show how difficult it is to make optimal strategic decisions in such a complex environment. Given that it is hard for researchers to observe organisations’ decision-making processes driving cyber-security strategy, we developed a board game that mimics this real-life environment and shows the challenges of decision-making. We observed cyber-security experts participating in the game. The results showed that decision-makers who performed poorly tended to employ heuristics, leading to fallacious decision approaches (overreaction strategies in place of proactive ones), and were not always aware of their poor performances. We advocate the need for decision support tools that capture this complex dynamic nature.
... We learn from the beer game (Sterman 1992 and1989) that a value chain is susceptible for the bullwhip effect. This is the oscillating effect of rotational large surpluses and shortages in the supplies within the value chain, caused by changing demands in the value chain. ...
... This effect depends on the structure of the value chain (Domingueza, Cannellaa and Framinan 2015;Sterman 1992;Sterman 1989), human behaviour (Coppini, Rossignoli, Rossi and Strozzi 2010;Nienhaus , Ziegenbein and Schoensleben 2007;Sterman 1992;Sterman 1989) and ordering and production strategies (Hussain and Drake 2011). Figure 1 shows a stabilizing increase in outsourcing activities around the world. ...
... This effect depends on the structure of the value chain (Domingueza, Cannellaa and Framinan 2015;Sterman 1992;Sterman 1989), human behaviour (Coppini, Rossignoli, Rossi and Strozzi 2010;Nienhaus , Ziegenbein and Schoensleben 2007;Sterman 1992;Sterman 1989) and ordering and production strategies (Hussain and Drake 2011). Figure 1 shows a stabilizing increase in outsourcing activities around the world. ...
The beer game provides us with a lot of knowledge about the drivers for the bullwhip effect: human behaviour, structure of the value chain and ordering & production strategies. Also various levers are known to reduce this effect. Besides strategies for ordering, production, service and pricing, also information sharing and lead time reduction are useful levers. The usage of information technology also reduces the time needed and improves the quality of information sharing. Yet the introduction of information technology makes value chain participants susceptible for cyber attacks by their actors. We believe this introduction to cyberspace evokes new game theory-like dilemmas with their own dynamic structure that may have an impact on the bullwhip effect. First notions of the structure suggest better-before-worse and worse-before-better scenarios.
... Ensuring risk-free and safe settings where the players engage with the underlying model and the game as well as with one other [21], ILEs facilitate the analysis of complex business issues, the creation of shared policies, the testing of mental models, an improvement in sense making and reframing, and last but not least, the acceleration of knowledge creation and knowledge sharing (e.g., [22][23][24][25]). In addition, ILEs have the potential to support decision making and the generation of policy insights while letting participants enjoy themselves and participate fully in the process [26][27][28]. In this regard, ILEs may also provide powerful tools to analyze behavioral factors related to decision-making processes [29][30][31][32][33]. ...
... As an example, the following excerpt emphasizes one of the strengths of this approach, specifically centered on the use of "games" embedded in an ILE (e.g., [16,26,27]): ...
This study aims to explore and discuss the role of systems thinking and system dynamics-assisted games in enhancing critical thinking skills in learners. In more detail, the study relies on the use of a system dynamics-based interactive learning environment related to project management issues, followed by systems thinking-supported debriefing sessions. The interactive learning environment was developed and used in the form of a single-player, online, computer-based game. The game was designed to mimic all the necessary planning and operational activities needed to organize a wedding ceremony. The acquisition of critical thinking skills in learners was evaluated in three main ways: (1) players’ performances were analyzed through a scoring system embedded in the game that considers several performance dimensions; (2) feedback from the players was collected and analyzed by using basic content analysis; (3) players’ performances were analyzed using five main categories of structures that are typical of project management domains, i.e., project features, the rework cycle, project control, ripple effects, and knock-on effects. The findings show that the joint use of system dynamics and systems thinking tools and principles within a gaming environment has the potential to facilitate and enhance the acquisition of critical thinking skills in learners and may also provide valid support for educators and practitioners interested in the enhancement of project management skills.
... Step 1: Problem articulation and Step 2: Formulation of dynamic hypothesis (Sterman, 2004). This study only focuses on what is essentially involved in identifying the causal loop diagram (CLD) of the paddy system. ...
... CLD is one of the mapping tools in SD, which consists of various variables connected by arrows denoting the hypotheses and a framework that conceptualises the modeler's idea or the feedback structure of any complex system (Sterman, 2004). The variables with plus (+) and minus (-) signs as shown in Figure 3 are assigned in the arrows to indicate the direction of influence. ...
The Muda Agricultural Development Authority (MADA) paddy estate project represents Malaysia’s national effort to enhance food security. However, the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) by Malaysia falls short of attaining the 10 MT/Ha paddy productivity potential. Amidst rising food insecurity, national efforts have focused on improving the efficiency of domestic productivity, this study specifically assessed factors influencing paddy productivity under the MADA estate project. Against the econometric technique, the causal loop diagram (CLD) in the system dynamics (SD) approach was used to analyse the systemic character of productivity and its drivers. The systemic relationship was explored using expert interviews and an extensive literature reviews. Findings established four major sub-systems of the rice value chain. These include paddy production, rice production, government subsidy and self-sufficiency level. The loop polarity feature was used to establish the causal relationships and directions of causality between the sub-systems. This study contributes directly to EPP10 and EPP11 of the ETP. As a result, it supports Malaysia’s effort towards strengthening food security and self-sufficiency.
... Teaching the dynamics of the bullwhip effect in supply chains is incredibly complex. Even though lecturers can introduce the concept of the bullwhip effect with well-established text-based learning methods, the students may not understand the dynamic consequences of choices made by a player in a supply chain [16,24]. To help students, supply chain management instructors commonly substitute textbook instructions with case studies, spreadsheet simulations [3], or the beer game [24]. ...
... Even though lecturers can introduce the concept of the bullwhip effect with well-established text-based learning methods, the students may not understand the dynamic consequences of choices made by a player in a supply chain [16,24]. To help students, supply chain management instructors commonly substitute textbook instructions with case studies, spreadsheet simulations [3], or the beer game [24]. The beer game continues to be one of the most effective ways to demonstrate the impact of demand unpredictability in supply chains [6,13]. ...
... The beer game is widely played for learning of bullwhip effect. It Biljana Panić et al. 1880 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 was created as a part of research in industrial dynamics in the early sixties by the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, to simulate the performance of a supply chain with one participant in each phase [53]. Teams are consisted of four roles: Retailer, Wholesaler, Distributor and Factory. ...
... After playing game the most players said that they felt frustrated and helpless [16,53,54]. In our experiment the same feelings reported uncooperative teams who couldn't share information (UN). ...
In this paper we analysed the relation between cooperativeness as a personality trait of participants in a supply chain and the bullwhip effect. We explored the possibility of change participants’ cooperativeness but we also showed the learning process of engineering students. In order to teach our students about behavioural causes of the bullwhip effect and to increase their awareness about the influence of their cooperativeness on decision making in the supply chain, we simulated decision making in the beer game performed by four groups of engineering students. The beer game is a role-play simulation game that lets students (or managers as well) experience typical coordination problems of supply chains. Participant cooperativeness is determined using a Social Value Orientation (SVO) questionnaire, applied before playing the game to classify them into cooperative and uncooperative ones and after playing the game to investigate changes of cooperativeness. Participants were assigned randomly to one of the two situations:a chain with and without sharing information. The experiment conducted twice – firstly with 20 engineering students, and secondly with other 22 engineering students. The results, showing lower costs within the team with cooperative behaviour tendencies and permission to share relevant information, point to the importance of the further study of the behavioural causes. Students realized that their behaviour influences the behaviour of others and how that can change the results of the team. After playing the game students filed SVO questionnaire again, and we showed that students who shared information increased their cooperativeness scores, while cooperative participants who couldn’t share information decreased their cooperativeness scores, so we found that students can learn cooperativeness to achieve better supply chain results.
... In contrast to video games that are often played for leisure, the purpose of these computer-simulation based tools such as \microworld" or \business simulator" or \management°ight simulator" or \interactive learning environment" is to support user education about the underlying task. [24][25][26] The system dynamics community has lead others in the development and use of microworlds for improving people's decision making in dynamic tasks. 4,6,[27][28][29] The distinctive feature of a system dynamics-based ILE is its underlying model's ability to link the structures of a task Improving Human Performance in Dynamic Tasks 1067 system with its outcomes. ...
... We have adopted this de¯nition of an ILE from previously established works on ILEs in the system dynamics area. 3,4,[25][26][27] Common examples of ILEs are Peoples Express, Beefeater, Strategem-2, the Fishbanks game, Learn!, Market Growth, Friday Night at ER, and FishBankILE. 5 Sterman's six web-based simulations including a web version of Fishbanks are state-of-art learning environments covering various business domains. ...
Dynamic tasks are pervasive in organizational decision making. Improving managerial performance in dynamic tasks is an ongoing research endeavor. We report a laboratory experiment in which participants managed a dynamic task by playing the roles of fishing fleet managers. The two experimental groups used a computer simulation-based interactive learning environment (ILE) with an outcome-oriented debriefing and a process-oriented debriefing. To assess the users’ learning and performance, a comprehensive five-dimensional model was used to evaluate subjects’ task performance, decision time, decision strategy, structural knowledge, and heuristics knowledge. The results showed that process-oriented debriefing improved subjects’ task performance, helped users gain task knowledge, develop heuristics, and adapt to systematic-variable consistent strategies. Contrary to our hypothesis, the process-oriented debriefing group did not use less decision time. In contrast to the cost-benefit approach to decision making, a relatively more systematic effort is needed to perform better in dynamic tasks such as fisheries management.
... Finally, a number of public agencies and Non Governmental Organizations are joining their counterparts in the private sector by providing broad-based systems thinking training to their top leaders and administrative staff. A number of simulation-based management exercises such as the production-distribution game (also known as the "beer game") [93] and the People's Express Flight Simulator [92] have been developed and refined over time to support such training and professional development efforts. In addition, Cavana and Clifford [11] have used GMB to develop a formal model and flight simulator to examine the policy implications of an excise tax policy on tobacco smoking. ...
... The management case study and flight simulator articles are best exemplified by Sterman's [93] article describing the Beer Game and Graham, Morecroft et al.'s [41] article on "Model Supported Case Studies for Management Education." The emphasis of these works is on the use of case studies in higher education, with the addition of games or computer simulations. ...
... Increased use ofthe Internet in wired classrooms has allowed the showing of videos that would have been unattainable or unthinkable just a few years ago. Even introducing innovative methods such as the "one minute paper," gaming, simulation and team based learning has not truly r e v o l u t i o~ classrbom learning (see for example, Sterman (1992) or various "Harvard Business Cases" (n.d.)). Flight simulation technology, on the other hand, has advanced at a much faster pace, assisted largely by advances in gaming technology (for example, see the most recent proceedings of the Society of Applied Learning Technology, 2012). ...
... However, gamification concept has been evaluated more for the transport -logistic sector than maritime in the literature (Bastug and Aydın, 2020). For instance, The Beer Game (Sterman, 1960), Fresh Connection (Cotter et al., 2009), Responsive.net, -The Supply Chain Game (Freng and Ma, 2008, Supply Chain Risk Management Game (Kuijpers, 2009) are some gamification 119 application on logistic and supply chain sector. Port Simulator 2012-Hamburg (2012 is one of the limited gamification on the maritime education. ...
Gamification is a new design for many fields in changes in the expectations and satisfaction levels of each individual with digital literacy skills, as well as in their behavior and habits. Utilizing the benefits of its frame is also a critical issue for the maritime education. In this context, it is aimed to measure the predisposition and interest of the maritime university students in the game contents by conducting a survey. Statistical results are obtained regarding the attitudes of the participants towards learning with computer games, their attitudes and expectations towards gamification and how useful gamification could be for non-game systems. Lastly, it is revealed which courses in maritime can be gamified. Accordingly, it is seen that the majority of the students are intertwined with games every day. The reason why the majority of the people prefer to play 'multiplayer' games is the desire to be successful brought by the competitive environment or the communication-based system being more interesting and increasing motivation even more. Attendances consider that gamification will make the lessons more interesting, specifically electronic navigation and maritime security courses.
... Models such as the one created here pose potential engines for future decision support tools that can examine a range of decisions affecting the design, delivery and quality of healthcare services. These act as a kind of 'management flight simulator' [76,77], allowing different operational policies (e.g. staffing, patient assignments) and innovation options to be examined for their impact on staff workload and care quality. ...
Higher acuity levels in COVID-19 patients and increased infection prevention and control routines have increased the work demands on nurses. To understand and quantify these changes, discrete event simulation (DES) was used to quantify the effects of varying the number of COVID-19 patient assignments on nurse workload and quality of care. Model testing was based on the usual nurse-patient ratio of 1:5 while varying the number of COVID-19 positive patients from 0 to 5. The model was validated by comparing outcomes to a step counter field study test with eight nurses. The DES model showed that nurse workload increased, and the quality of care deteriorated as nurses were assigned more COVID-19 positive patients. With five COVID-19 positive patients, the most demanding condition, the simulant-nurse donned and doffed personal protective equipment (PPE) 106 times a shift, totaling 6.1 hours. Direct care time was reduced to 3.4 hours (-64% change from baseline pre-pandemic case). In addition, nurses walked 10.5km (+46% increase from base pre-pandemic conditions) per shift while 75 care tasks (+242%), on average, were in the task queue. This contributed to 143 missed care tasks (+353% increase from base pre-pandemic conditions), equivalent to 9.6 hours (+311%) of missed care time and care task waiting time increased to 1.2 hours (+70%), in comparison to baseline (pre-pandemic) conditions. This process simulation approach may be used as potential decision support tools in the design and management of hospitals in-patient care settings, including pandemic planning scenarios.
... Analogous to the flight simulators that pilots use to practice on and learn about the complexities of flying an aircraft, a project management micro-world provides a virtual practice field for managers to "fly" a project and experience the long-term consequences of their decisions (Sterman, 1992). ...
Nowadays the program complexity increases and program manager needs to have specialized skills and knowledge as he faces the most challenging tasks in his job for making sure that all projects and program component are moving as per the plan. Thus, program management education plays a critical role in supporting and enhancing the skill and competencies needed for program manager so the training has to follow innovative way to overcome the limitation the traditional courses deliver. Introduction of simulations in project management has since helped in the exploration of opportunities, expect scenarios and identify limitations of several factors within the project at hand however the initial search shows the lack of dedicated and well-known simulation software for program management compared to many simulation tools for project management training. This research paper seeks to explore and study the usage of simulation tools in program management and study if Program Management can benefit from available Project Management simulation as well as how current can be enhanced for that and do we need separated software or better to enhance current software. For that, observation has to be done to explore that and come up with appropriate recommendations and suggestions. This will include defining the simulation tools in general , its objectives, pros & cons, challenges & opportunities, sample of project management simulation then followed by research methods including survey, questionnaires for interviewees and output from what we studied so method depends on qualitative data due to lack of secondary data. This will be built up to get understanding on program manager requirement for simulation as possible.
... Gry symulacyjne pomagają nie tylko uczniom, studentom, uczącym się dorosłym, na doskonalenie umiejętności oraz nabywanie wiedzy poprzez doświadczanie edukacyjne w sytuacjach odzwierciedlających rzeczywiste warunki, lecz także pozwalają na badanie procesów podejmowania decyzji, indywidualnych zachowań, rozwój teorii dynamiki społecznej. Do najpopularniejszych gier z tego zakresu należy "The Beer Game" 2 (Sterman, 1992), dedykowana studentom zarządzania, symulująca system produkcji i dystrybucji. W grze biorą udział zespoły składające się z dwoch do pięciu osób, reprezentujące poszczególne poziomy łańcucha dostaw, takie jak: producent, dystrybutor, hurtownik i detalista. ...
Edukacja na rzecz zrównoważonego rozwoju stała się w ostatnich latach istotnym elementem dyskursu naukowego. Podejmowane są również liczne próby opracowywania i wdrażania strategii, które przyczynią się do skutecznego propagowania proekologicznych zachowań wśród dzieci, młodzieży i dorosłych. W odniesieniu do dwóch pierwszych grup edukację ekologiczną można włączać do programów realizowanych w ramach edukacji formalnej, dotarcie do trzeciej grupy jest zdecydowanie trudniejsze. Artykuł ma na celu zwrócenie uwagi na możliwość wykorzystania metody dynamiki systemowej (ang. System Dynamics) do badania oraz rozwiązywania problemów związanych z projektowaniem i implementacją działań edukacyjnych na rzecz zrównoważonego rozwoju. Publikacja przybliża koncepcję cieszącą się wciąż niewielkim zainteresowaniem krajowych badaczy. Badania towarzyszą rozpoczynającemu się projektowi, którego celem jest ochrona środowiska poprzez lokalną dekarbonizację energetyczną.
... They played the Delta Design Game (Bucciarelli, 1999) to highlight design as a social and negotiated process. The played the Beer Game to learn about impacts of delays in supply chains (Sterman, 1992). The instructors introduced design methods and practices, such as how to conduct a needs assessment and use tools like House of Quality, Pugh charts, and TRIZ (Altshuller, 1996;Griffin & Hauser, 1993;Hauser & Clausing, 1988;Pugh & Clausing, 1996). ...
Background: Because of prior experience solving well-structured problems that have single, correct answers, students often struggle to direct their own design work and may not understand the need to frame ill-structured design problems. Purpose: Framing agency—defined as making decisions that are consequential to framing design problems and learning through this process—sheds light on students’ treatment of design problems; by framing, we mean the various actions designers take to understand, define, and bound the problem. Using the construct framing agency, we sought to characterize design team discourse to detect whether students treated design problems as ill- or well-structured and examine the consequences of this treatment. Method: Data were collected through extended participant observation of a capstone design course in a biomedical engineering program at a large research university. Data included audio and video records of design team meetings over the course of framing and solving industry-sponsored problems. For this paper, we analyzed three cases using sociolinguistic content analysis to characterize framing agency and compared the cases to illuminate the nuances of framing agency. Results: All teams faced impasses; one team navigated the impasse by framing the problem, whereas the others treated the problem as given. We identified markers of agency in students’ discourse, including tentative language, personal pronouns, and sharing ownership. Conclusions: Framing agency clarifies the kinds of learning experiences students need in order to overcome past experiences dominated by solving archetypical well-structured problems with predetermined solutions.
... Motivated by Sterman (1989Sterman ( , 1992, a number of experimental studies have used the Beer Distribution Game (BDG) to explore behavioral causes for the bullwhip effect and methods for dampening it (see Chen and Wu 2018, for a review). Kaminsky and Simchi-Levi (1998) find that reducing the ordering and shipment lags decrease overall supply chain costs even though order amplification remains the same. ...
Problem Definition: We empirically examine a complementary behavioral source of the bullwhip effect that has been previously overlooked in the literature: that individuals order more aggressively (i.e., overreact) when they face shortages than when they hold inventory. Methodology/Results: We conduct a behavioral experiment using the Beer Distribution Game. We estimate decision rules using multi-level modeling approaches that overcome several drawbacks of the estimation methods used in the earlier literature. We find robust evidence that, contrary to the overreaction when in backlog hypothesis and reports from popular press, decision-makers order less aggressively and become insensitive to the scope of the problem when in backlog-a scope neglect phenomenon. Managerial Implications: We propose a dual-process theoretical account predicated on affective reactions to explain this scope neglect. Our results suggest that affective reactions under novel operating conditions or dramatic events in supply chains, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can overwhelm cognitive processing of managers and make them fail to recognize the full scope of the problems faced and update decision models accordingly. Understanding the cognitive-affective drivers of ordering behaviors that generate supply chain instability is important in designing interventions to mitigate their negative effects.
... • Disentangling complexities: Disentangling the complexity of an SES means raising people's awareness of interdependence and the basic consequences of this interdependence, such as feedback loops and their cascading effects. It is well known that people find dynamic systems with feedback loops difficult to understand and foresee (Sterman 1992). In a game, the concentration of action within a limited time frame and space makes these consequences of complexity more apparent. ...
The whole book is open access and available at the folowing adress:
https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003021339
The serious game chapter can be downloaded from: https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/oa-edit/10.4324/9781003021339-15/serious-games-olivier-barreteau-g%C3%A9raldine-abrami-bruno-bont%C3%A9-fran%C3%A7ois-bousquet-rapha%C3%ABl-mathevet?context=ubx&refId=ef051b10-c261-4814-a4ff-86dadfb61906
Abstract: Chapter 12 deals with the method of serious games, which is used as a tool to support social-ecological systems (SES) understanding and governance, often as part of the toolbox of participatory approaches. The chapter discusses how serious games can be used to explore the consequences of collective decisions and of external drivers. It discusses how games can give people understanding of system dynamics, and allow for developing a joint representation of an SES, collecting information on collective behaviour, education on the complexity of SES, crisis management training and institutional arrangement as major applications of serious games used in SES research. It goes on to discuss the types of SES problems and research questions commonly addressed by this set of methods, as well as their limitations, resource implications and new emerging research directions. The chapter also includes an in-depth case study showcasing the application of serious games, and suggested further readings on these methods.
... Indicatively, seminar-based games allow participants to test, communicate and share ideas, rendering policymaking processes more interactive and innovative (Ya, 2010). 'Stratagem2' (Sterman & Meadows, 1985), 'Beer Game' (Sterman, 1992), 'Fish banks' (Meadows et al., 1993) and 'Climate Action Simulation' (Rooney-Varga et al., 2020) are indicative successful and famous efforts. Interestingly, the open-ended city-building video game 'SimCity' is another example of SD gamification, yet for pure entertainment purposes (Langley & Larsen, 1994;Starr, 1994). ...
As gamification has been gaining ground in research practice, system dynamics is no exemption. Despite the long tradition of system dynamics gamification, capitalizing on lessons learned from previous experiences is still challenging for practitioners. Specifically, the extant literature introduces a repertoire of system dynamics-based simulators and games under quite divergent perspectives and nomenclatures, while a comprehensive set of practical 'how-to-gamify' guidelines and a resource repository are lacking. Thus, this research aims to propose a set of shared principles by (i) providing an embryonic definition of system dynamics gamification and (ii) framing the most relevant challenges and drivers, to fill in the literature gaps and allow for effective knowledge accumulation. Overall, this work anticipates rendering gamification as a recognized branch of the systems dynamics domain by establishing a common language and recommending directions to improve practice and research efforts.
... An example of this is The Beer Game (or the Beer Distribution Game), which was developed in the 1960s at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's (MIT) Sloan School of Management. Since Sterman [51,52] popularized this simulation game, one of the most popular games used in logistics management and production management class, many applications have appeared in which The Beer Game has been utilized in order to research the behavior of participants [53][54][55]. In other cases, the original game has been modified to investigate new approaches [56][57][58]. ...
This paper presents the development of the first Management Flight Simulator of an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). It allows analyzing the physician decision-making related to the admission and discharge of patients and it can be used as a learning–training tool. The discrete event simulation model developed mimics real admission and discharge processes in ICUs, and it recreates the health status of the patients by using real clinical data (instead of using a single value for the length of stay). This flexible tool, which allows recreating ICUs with different characteristics (number of beds, type of patients that arrive, congestion level...), has been used and validated by ICU physicians and nurses of four hospitals. We show through preliminary results the variability among physicians in the decision-making concerning the dilemma of the last bed, which is dealt in a broad sense: it is not only about how the last available ICU bed is assigned but also about how the physician makes decisions about the admission and discharge of patients as the ICU is getting full. The simulator is freely available on the internet to be used by any interested user (https://emi-sstcdapp.unavarra.es/ICU-simulator).
... Responding to this demand quickly and forecasting how it will vary as the epidemic progresses is a key modelling question. The famous beer game is a typical example of a SD model that shows how small variations in customer demand can increase exponentially upstream the supply chain (Sterman, 1992). SD would be a suitable method to model the supply chain at global or national level to support decisions regarding order and production quantities at supplier and manufacturer level, as well as restrictions imposed to ensure customer demand for these basic supplies is effectively matched during the epidemic. ...
Modelling has been used extensively by all national governments and the World Health Organization in deciding on the best strategies to pursue in mitigating the effects of COVID-19. Principally these have been epidemiological models aimed at understanding the spread of the disease and the impacts of different interventions. But a global pandemic generates a large number of problems and questions, not just those related to disease transmission, and each requires a different model to find the best solution. In this article we identify challenges resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss how simulation modelling could help to support decision-makers in making the most informed decisions. Modellers should see the article as a call to arms and decision-makers as a guide to what support is available from the simulation community.
... System dynamics is defined as a methodology for understanding complex problems which are dynamic and which involve feedback (Forrester, 1961). Once developed, the model improves the ability of management to assess the future impacts of the proposed strategy by developing a management flight simulator (Sterman, 1992). Movie Industry is a dynamic and a complex system. ...
Movie industry is one of the most dynamic industries. It has been always an area of interest for movie makers to know in
advance that how their movies will be performing at the box office. With the advent of internet, consumers are looking
for information through various online sources like blogs, social media, review websites etc. The information about new
movie releases can easily be searched by using popular search engines online. The rate of search about a movie shows the
interest of movie goers. This can impact the actual no. of movie goers, hence creating a direct impact on box office revenue.
This paper is a novice attempt to evaluate the impact of electronic word of mouth on the success of a movie. The impact
of eWOM is measured using Google trends search and the success of the movie is predicted by analyzing the Boxoffice
revenue. The results show that there is a significant relationship between the number of times a movie is searched on
Google and the corresponding box office sales.
... Forrester's work showed how these lead to persistent inventory oscillations in manufacturing supply chains. Industrial Dynamics generated a research stream on supply chain dynamics that arise from actor behavior (Lee et al., 1997;Croson et al., 2014), and a widely used role play game on the bullwhip effect (Sterman, 1992). This work illustrated the ability of SD models to capture disequilibrium and crystallize lessons learned about actor behavior in the form of a game. ...
... Forrester's work showed how these lead to persistent inventory oscillations in manufacturing supply chains. Industrial Dynamics generated a research stream on supply chain dynamics that arise from actor behavior (Lee et al., 1997;Croson et al., 2014), and a widely used role play game on the bullwhip effect (Sterman, 1992). This work illustrated the ability of SD models to capture disequilibrium and crystallize lessons learned about actor behavior in the form of a game. ...
Our society is on an unsustainable pathway exemplified by anthropogenic climate change, deforestation, human displacements and species extinction (IPCC 2018 ). Altering this pathway requires a combination of technical, organisational, economic, institutional, social-cultural and political efforts that are increasingly referred to as socio-technical transitions to an environmentally sustainable economy (Van den Bergh, Truffer, and Kallis 2011). Transitions research has developed frameworks and methods (e.g. Geels, Berkhout, and van Vuuren 2016; Papachristos 2018a) for understanding historical and contemporary transitions and for exploring system interventions related to governance and sustainability transitions (Smith, Voß, and Grin 2010). While qualitative, narrative-based case studies dominated early research, modelling and simulation approaches have recently gained ground. These latter approaches are particularly suited to explore interdependencies across different system elements (Bergman et al. 2008; Papachristos 2011, 2014a; Holtz et al. 2015; Walrave and Raven 2016; Köhler et al. 2018) and to perform counter-factual analysis (Sterman 2002) that allows posing ‘what-if’ questions and avoiding potential selection biases that limit the power of pure empirical analysis. In this chapter we discuss how system dynamics (SD) modelling and simulation (Sterman 2000) can contribute to and complement – rather than substitute for – other methods in transitions research. SD is an established modelling and simulation research methodology that spans several subject areas (Sterman 2018). The phenomena discussed in the transitions literature are aligned with the foundational ideas of SD – a problem orientation, broad model boundaries across multiple realms and an ‘endogenous point of view’ towards processes of system change that are driven by actor decisions (Richardson 2011). Thus, SD is well suited to addressing transitions research questions that relate to high-leverage policies (Van den Bergh, Truffer, and Kallis 2011). As is the case with any modelling and simulation methodology considered for transition research, there are certain weaknesses that are worth bearing in mind (Turnheim et al. 2015) and the methodological approaches proposed to overcome them (e.g. Geels, Berkhout, and van Vuuren 2016; Papachristos 2018a). The chapter is structured as follows. Section 2 briefly overviews transitions research and some critical contemporary research issues. Section 3 briefly summarises SD history and foundations. Section 4 discusses the core SD practices and how they can provide entry points for transitions research. Section 5 discusses exemplary SD work relevant to transitions research across three levels of analysis: macro, meso and micro. Emphasis is on the meso level, as this level is also central in transitions research (Geels 2002; Geels and Schot 2007). In Section 6 we discuss some key opportunities and challenges for applying SD methods in transitions research.
... Insight games are typically played before the material is taught to create what Wood calls an "A-Ha" moment. An extremely popular insight game in operations management is The Beer Game (Sterman, 1992). The Beer Game is generally played before any discussions of the bullwhip effect or supply chain coordination. ...
This article describes a game used in an MBA‐level operations management course to help students understand the concept of the learning curve. Student teams participate in an interactive, hands‐on Lego assembly exercise, measuring their times through repeated trials after which they calculate their team's learning curve rate. The exercise is oriented to illustrate the mechanisms by which learning occurs both individually and organizationally. After students complete their work in groups, the data is aggregated across the class and analyzed to further illustrate key principles of the learning curve. A modified version of the game based on cup‐stacking has been developed for online students.
... Therefore, bullwhip effect is often also called Forrester effect. Although researches has be done novelty in this area arises slowly -one of most important was introduction of Beer game simulation game by Sterman in late 1980's [Sterman 1992] as an adequate behavioural decision model. Term bullwhip was first used by company Procter & Gamlbe (P&G) in 1990's who noticed order variance amplification phenomenon between the company and its suppliers [Wang, Disney 2016]. ...
Background: Bullwhip (or Forrester) effect is well studied phenomenon in many supply chains where small variations in customer demand have a tendency to become larger and larger when created by upstream members of the supply chain resulting in unneeded increasing in upstream inventory. However, there is substantial deficiency of scientific research on bullwhip effect in natural gas supply chain. Due to relatively smaller number of supply chain members and huge volumes flowing through the natural gas supply chain, benefits of decreasing or even eliminating negative consequences of bullwhip effect could be enormous. This paper aims to provide more insights in reasons for the occurrence, nature and consequences of bullwhip effect by measuring and analysing it in natural gas supply chain of Republic of Croatia. Methods: After observation of orders and consumption from natural gas supplier, comparisons were made on monthly and yearly level. Well known and accepted metrics were used to calculate existence of bullwhip effect. Results: Results didn't show existence of bullwhip effect on lowest level of natural gas supply chain what is in accordance with other researches. Best solution for mitigating potential or real bullwhip effect are information sharing while working on joint demand forecast in supply chain and use of newer forecasting method Conclusion: Expected results should contribute to better understanding of bullwhip phenomenon in natural gas supply chain, but also provide possible avoiding strategies based on building trust in supply chain and on appropriate use of information and communication technologies.
This study focuses on the potential of Systems Thinking‐assisted serious games to facilitate learning at multiple levels. These levels refer both to the actors (primarily the designers and the players, but also the facilitators and the educators) involved throughout the main stages of a serious game lifecycle and the typology of learning that is facilitated (i.e., single or double‐loop learning). From a methodological point of view, this study presents and discusses an action research‐based case study aimed at developing a Systems Thinking‐assisted board game in the field of urban sustainability. Systems Thinking (in terms of methods, principles, and tools) is employed in all the phases of the design and use of the serious game and is key in fostering learning, both for the players and the game designers. Overall, this paper not only provides novel insights into the field of serious games but also leads to the proposal of a core set of methodological suggestions based on Systems Thinking principles and methods that can assist academics and practitioners in creating and using board games for educational purposes.
This study explores the role of qualitative system dynamics (SD) models in representing and analyzing the information of corporate annual reports by uncovering their hidden “dynamic complexity.” The study employs a specific qualitative SD technique, resource mapping, and outlines a methodology to apply it in practice. This study has several contributions. First, it provides methodological guidelines and practical insights on how to apply qualitative SD, using stock‐and‐flow diagrams, in the field of corporate reporting to represent visually and analyze the dynamic complexity implicit in businesses. Second, it underlines the performative role of accounting together with qualitative SD. Specifically, it provides useful insights into how to use qualitative SD in the accounting field to enhance both internal analysis and external communication, thereby supporting decision‐making processes. Third, it shows how to integrate different discipline‐related technical languages, thereby bridging differences in backgrounds, skills, and expertise that might characterize intended readers and users. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.
The research investigated whether Perceptual Control Theory (PCT) can be used to model the decisions of small groups utilizing data from the Beer Game. The PCT model was tested on public and MSc data operating the Beer Game. Investigations of closed-loop behaviour determined the perceived disturbance was the controlled variable. A set of PCT Simulink models was built and their parameters adjusted to give responses comparable to the human Beer Game based on the groups’ orders alone. A few groups appear to have additionally used the backlog as input. PCT, incorporating the principle of closed loop control, does represent the human management of the Beer Game, giving an overall correlation coefficient of 0.70-0.74 obtained between the orders from a PCT model and those used in the Beer Game from 14 groups of participants and supported by minimum weighted integrals IAE and ITAE and Kolmogorov-Smirnov 2 sample tests.
Developing multifaceted contemporary individuals implies that they have to be constructed as one whole system, as well as provide for their creative realization. In order to improve the training of university students, innovative models for conducting lectures and seminars should be implemented. The change in curricula should meet the social requirements of the modern world and technologies used by students. Implementing gamification in the business logistics training should aim at studying and establishing logistics knowledge and skills activities and processes. The games included in the curriculum should take into consideration the changes and not only identify the state and progress students make and to provide opportunities for making business decisions, they should be motivating and correcting, generating ideas and alternatives. Gamification is the application of game-design elements in various systems which can be used in education. Within the education framework this can involve a number of game mechanisms. The possibilities to use these game-design mechanisms to facilitate training have become the object of increasingly more research and are ever so often included in practice. The report will focus on identifying how these game mechanisms can improve knowledge in business logistics and along with that strengthen efficiency and the provision of new opportunities for instructors. The paper presents an educational computer game for evolutionary algorithms (EA) which could be used in class as well as for distance learning. After the essence of the EAs is reviewed, the plot and mechanics of the game are described as well. Furthermore, a comprehensive study on the game balance is conducted to showcase the advantages of using the game as an educational tool.
This chapter explores the potential of distributed ledger technology (DLT) in addressing supply chain shortages and competition for scarce resources. Specifically, we assess the effect of strategic information sharing on supply chain efficiency and the creation of virtual markets to improve supply chain performance. To facilitate this research, we designed a simulation platform called DISASTER (DLT In Sourcing And Strategic Trading Experimental Research), which hosts web-based, dynamic, and customizable supply chain simulations that leverage concepts of blockchain technology, and permit capturing of information regarding players’ ordering strategies and behavioral traits. In this chapter, we describe the DISASTER platform and discuss two selected DISASTER simulations that probe supply chain retailers’ order behavior: the first investigates the role of information sharing among competing retailers; the second allows for the trading of tokens among competing retailers. In the first simulation, we find that decision makers act more strategically and closer to Nash equilibrium predictions as more information about historical orders of competitors is shared; however, the observed outcome is not invariably an improvement in efficiency as measured by profits across participants. In the second simulation, we observe that initial order quantities remain unchanged as compared to the baseline (non-trading) scenario, despite the possibility to trade on virtual markets; however, over time, more equitable distribution of inventory is achieved, and the supply chain efficiency as measured by profits increases. Our findings highlight the value of empirical research and management games in shedding light on the role of decision makers’ behavioral characteristics and investigating real-life supply chain challenges and the potential of adopting blockchain-specific capabilities in that space.
The need for self‐adaptive and intelligent supply chain systems is essential to meet the challenges of the current global markets. Despite the recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, literature still lacks the application of state‐of‐the‐art methods to optimize the performance of supply chain ordering management problems. Thus, this paper proposes a relatively new Deep Reinforcement Learning‐based Ordering Mechanism (DRLOM) for multi‐echelon linear supply chain systems. Initially, the supply chain ordering management problem is formulated as an agent‐based reinforcement learning model and, afterwards, solved using a recently developed policy‐based algorithm called proximal policy optimization. The proposed approach (DRLOM) aids the assumed supply chain echelons, such as the Retailer, the Wholesaler, the Distributor and the Factory, to learn the optimal/near‐optimal dynamic strategies for inventory ordering systems. The experimental results also validate that the proposed approach efficiently minimizes the system‐wide total accumulated inventory costs under different problem instances than other ordering heuristics and evolutionary computation methods. Throughout this paper, benchmark findings from the literature are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. Furthermore, limitations of the earlier works are addressed through this paper and contribute to the supply chain ordering management literature.
In real-world supply chains it is often observed that orders placed with suppliers tend to fluctuate more than sales to customers and that this deviation builds up in the upstream direction of the supply chain. This bullwhip effect arises because local decision-making based on orders of the immediate customer leads to overreaction. Literature shows that supply chain wide sharing of order or inventory information can help to stabilize the system and reduce inventories and stockouts. However, sharing this information can make a stakeholder vulnerable in other areas like the bargaining over prices. To overcome this dilemma we propose the usage of cryptographic methods like secure multiparty computation or homomorphic encryption to compute and share average order/inventory levels without leaking of sensitive data of individual actors. Integrating this information into the stylized beer game supply chain model, we show that the bullwhip effect is reduced also under this limited information sharing. Besides presenting results regarding the savings in supply chain costs achieved, we describe how blockchain technology can be used to implement such a novel supply chain management system.KeywordsSupply chain managementSecure multiparty computationHomomorphic encryptionBullwhip effect
Whether to keep effective management of supply chain even in the disasters has become a crucial issue for the manufacturing industry because modern supply chain networks spread global and complex, and the behaviors of the network are hardly predictable. The Beer Game is a simple but beneficial supply chain network model. The game consists of four sectors: factory, distributor, wholesaler, and retailer. The game’s goal is to deliver the beer to the customers in just proportion. Many business schools adopt it to learn the critical point of the supply chain. In this study, evolving computer agents by genetic algorithm play the game instead of humans. We examine how the agents handle the game significantly when some parts of the supply chain are disrupted for some reason. Through simulations, we confirmed that effective ordering strategies are different between sectors, and the positions of the sectors are an essential factor in their strategies.
There can be little doubt that the problems confronting our societies are getting increasingly complex with phenomena such as extreme weather conditions arising out of climate change, forced human migration, shortage of freshwater, growth of infectious and lifestyle-related diseases, and inequality in distribution of wealth. These complexities also come at a time when: (i) countries across the world are being swept by the digital revolution that threatens to go beyond automation of factories and offices to automating the core of society, homes and individual lives, (ii) data is generated at an unprecedented rate from several billion mobile devices and sensors accompanied by a concomitant increase in data processing capability and (iii) increased calls are made by citizens for a highly transparent policy making and participatory governance.It is important for higher educational institutions to find ways of preparing future leaders capable of negotiating this complex environment. Toward this end, Residential College 4 at the National University of Singapore utilizes the General Education space to offer about 500 freshmen and sophomore students a formal introduction to Systems Thinking (ST) and System Dynamics (SD) Modeling each year. Sharing of perspectives help in understanding the big picture, appreciate the interactive nature of the problem and the trade-offs that must be made in arriving at an accommodative solution, and in communicating the understood problem and the possible solutions to all interested parties. Formal modeling helps in generating scenarios, examining sensitivities and trying out various policy options. The SD methodology also has the inherent ability to assimilate information embedded in high-dimensional data sets. This chapter will detail how we make use of a local education innovation—a living and learning program to foster ST/SD skills and empowering students to become model-based policy makers.KeywordsSystems thinkingSystems Dynamic ModelingResidential College 4General educationComplexity
O Beer Game (BG) do inglês, Jogo da Cerveja, é um dos simuladores de gerenciamento desenvolvido na Sloan School of Management do Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) pelo System Dynamics Group da Sloan no início dos anos 1960 a partir da pesquisa de Jay Forrester sobre dinâmica industrial. O jogo consiste na simulação de um sistema de produção e distribuição no qual os jogadores são desafiados a tomar decisões por meio do pensamento sistêmico. As decisões do quanto produzir e o quanto comercializar a partir de grandes estoques e demanda decrescente ou estoques baixos e demandas crescentes são desafios diários de um ambiente empresarial, em que a decisão de um agente afeta a decisão de outro agente na cadeia de suprimentos. Por outro lado, os processos envolvidos na cadeia de produção e de suprimentos e toda sua arquitetura é influenciada por uma evolução econômica associada ao termo economia 4.0. Isso é possibilitado pelo avanço das tecnologias de telecomunicação e informação como a Internet das Coisas (IoT) e a Inteligência Artificial (IA), o que viabiliza a satisfação de novos requisitos na cadeia de suprimentos como a produção sob demanda e redução de estoques, a personalização de produtos, a digitalização e virtualização de serviços e rastreabilidade completa e em tempo real, dentre outros. Assim, o objetivo deste trabalho é elaborar uma proposta de jogo para simulação de cadeia de suprimentos e produção para fins educacionais envolvendo os conceitos de logística 4.0. Para isso, será utilizada a prática pedagógica gamificada no ensino sobre cadeias de suprimentos e produção e de demais conceitos das disciplinas envolvidas, preferencialmente de forma integrada. Um simulador de cadeia de distribuição de cervejas-Beer Game-será aplicado em sala de aula com algumas das etapas adicionais que seguem os moldes da logística 4.0. A coleta de dados se dará por meio de supervisão em sala de aula da aplicação da simulação. Na continuidade deste trabalho, pretende-se apresentar os resultados da avaliação e mais detalhes sobre a simulação baseada no Beer Game 4.0.
This chapter aims to contribute to the current debate on how to face the challenge of managing limited resources in a sustainable way, specifically addressing the issue of urban sustainability. In this context, and more in general about the broad field of sustainability, academic literature specifically emphasizes that computer simulation could provide a potentially useful tool. More in detail, several calls for more research point to the use of computer-based learning laboratories—the so-called Interactive Learning Environments (ILEs)—not only to enhance individual as well collective learning but also to facilitate decision-making with a forward-looking orientation in complex sustainability systems. Particularly, ILEs are seen as complementary tools to—if not even as an evolution of—existing Decisions Support Systems (DSSs), traditionally used to analyze available data and steer decision-making. Starting from these considerations, this study aims to: (1) outline the role that DSSs and ILEs may play in fostering learning acquisition and supporting decision-making in and about complex sustainability-related systems; (2) discuss the main results of an ILE-based project used to support learning and decision-making about an urban sustainability context. From a methodological and technical point of view, this study employs System Dynamics (SD) modeling principles and tools. Specifically, a System Dynamics computer model was used to portray the urban environment under analysis (i.e., the simulated city); the model was subsequently transformed into an ILE used to explore the effects of managerial decisions related to the concept of “urban metabolism.”
The literature on demand-driven supply chain operations management strategies (DDSCOMSs) is excellent in describing when, where and how the strategies can be used. However, managers of manufacturing companies usually employ more than one DDSCOMS when designing and operating their supply chains, thus needing to understand when, how and why two or more DDSCOMSs can be used in combination. The answers to these questions are not stated well in the literature. The purpose of this study is therefore to explore the relations among the DDSCOMSs, using a combination of a structured literature review and analytical conceptual research. The study identifies and establishes both direct and indirect relations among the five studied DDSCOMSs. These results assist in nuancing the complex and dynamic relations between the DDSCOMSs, by showing the effects different decisions have on operational performance. The study also points out further research directions, such as the DDSCOMS relations that are under-studied.
A fundamental challenge in preparing for and responding to future threats and opportunities (including the South China Sea, ISIS and Boko Haram) involves maintaining collective identity resilience in the face of unanticipated sensemaking crises. Unpacking the meaning and rationale behind that deceptively simple claim and understanding its strategic implications are the primary foci of this monograph.
In the pages that follow the intended meaning of ‘identity resilience’ and
‘sensemaking crisis’ will be formalized along with an exposition on how these concepts together represent a promising new metric for evaluating future international relations strategies.
In addition, generative social science modeling will be put forward as destined to serve a critical role in any pragmatically consequential attempt to predict the socially beneficial consequences of future actions undertaken with the explicit intent to enhance overall social well-being in our increasingly connected world.
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The role of the Business, Management, and Leadership Committee (BMLC) of the Internatioal Society of Petroleum Engineers International (SPE) has been critical in raising awareness among SPE members regarding the need to develop and enhance interpersonal skills, which such skills are required in addition to "hard" or technical skills to effectively advance careers and sustain growth in the upstream oil and gas sector.
Endorsed at the highest level of SPE, the BMLC have consistently developed a series of activities providing a path of enrichment for SPE's membership of over 156,000 worldwide, in different languages and formats. This paper summarizes the journey of the BMLC, how the committee's work created a change in the perception of the importance of these skills, previously called "soft", to sustain success, and shares some best practices and learned lessons.
The need for enhancing and elevating management, business, and leadership skills is somewhat obvious to those who have experienced the impact these skills can have for advancing in a role, for fostering effective teamwork, for networking with colleagues of the same discipline, for securing a path to a promotion, and for being recognized for a compelling work performance. Historically, for individuals working in the upstream oil and gas sector, having excellent to outstanding technical skills suffices for recognition and reward, to add to this the need for business, management, and leadership skills is not an easy task.
Starting by the meager allocation of training budgets in corporations for non-technical training programs, and considering there is a prevailing bias that some skills like resilience or negotiation are inborn, there is no surprise in noting there is self-shame in admitting that one needs a course in – for example- stress control or similar personal skills. The open conversation about strong skills was needed within SPE, to support members to achieve more, leaving behind misconceptions that hamper success.
The journey of the BMLC has been challenging, and the compilation done for this paper surprised the authors, about the accelerated multiplication of benefits the BML has provided to SPE members. We will summarize some figures pertinent to the activities of the Committee, as well as some historical background on the launching and growth. We will also share what works for launching, maintaining and expanding similar programs for strong skills in corporate environments.
Contributions to a supply chain’s overall cost function (such as the bullwhip effect) are sensitive to the different players’ ordering policies. This chapter addresses the problem of developing ordering policies which minimise the overall supply chain cost. Evolutionary Algorithms have been used to evolve such ordering policies. The authors of this chapter extend existing research in a number of ways. They apply two more recent evolutionary algorithms to the problem: Grammatical Evolution (GE), using a standard Genetic Algorithm (GA) search engine; and Quantum Inspired Genetic Algorithm (QIGA), used both as a standalone algorithm, and as an alternative search engine for GE. The authors benchmark these against previous work on the linear Beer Game supply chain, and extend our approaches to arborescent supply chains (without gaming), and capacitated inventory. The ordering-policy-generating grammars investigated range from simple — only using the demand presented at that point — to complex — which may incorporate lagged demands, forecasting approaches such as Moving Average or Simple Exponential Smoothing, conditional statements and other operators. The different grammars and search engines are compared for deterministic demand, and various stochastic demand distributions. Overall, GE outperforms other approaches by discovering more efficient ordering policies. However, its performance is sensitive to the choice of grammar: simple grammars do best on deterministic demand, while grammars using conditionals, information sharing and forecasting do better on stochastic demand. GE with a QIGA search engine has similar performance overall to GE with a standard GA search engine: typically QIGA is better if demand follows a Poisson distribution, with GA better for Normal demand.
Inventory Optimization argues that mathematical inventory models can only take us so far with supply chain management. In order to optimize inventory policies, we have to use probabilistic simulations. The book explains how to implement these models and simulations step-by-step, starting from simple deterministic ones to complex multi-echelon optimization.
The first two parts of the book discuss classical mathematical models, their limitations and assumptions, and a quick but effective introduction to Python is provided. Part 3 contains more advanced models that will allow you to optimize your profits, estimate your lost sales and use advanced demand distributions. It also provides an explanation of how you can optimize a multi-echelon supply chain based on a simple--yet powerful--framework. Part 4 discusses inventory optimization thanks to simulations under custom discrete demand probability functions.
Inventory managers, demand planners and academics interested in gaining cost-effective solutions will benefit from the do-it-yourself examples and Python programs included in each chapter.
Gamification in research practices and applications is gaining ground and system dynamics is no exception. System dynamics has a robust tradition of gamification, starting from its early days. However, capitalising on the lessons learned from previous experiences is challenging for practitioners. A literature overview shows that the repertoire of concepts regarding simulators used by system dynamicists is highly inconsistent. Although few researchers indicate warnings and challenges about system dynamics gamification, a lack of comprehensive operational guidelines is evident. In this regard, we describe the construction of a web-based simulator, the PERCEIVE Simulation Lab, and report how the lack of literature support affected the outcome of this endeavour. We then propose an embryonal broad collection of definitions for assisting researchers in framing the system dynamics gamification attempts and filling the literature gap. Finally, we reflect on the future of system dynamics gamification: Why is gamification important for advancing the system dynamics discipline? Which are the necessary research efforts for complementing each other? Which actions should be taken to render the literature more useful for practitioners? How could the system dynamics community support this effort? Overall, we anticipate the evolution of gamification similar to the maturation of group model building.
This chapter aims to describe the diversity of participatory approaches in relation to social simulations, with a focus on the interactions between the tools and participants. We consider potential interactions at all stages of the modelling process: conceptual design, implementation, use and simulation outcome analysis. After reviewing and classifying existing approaches and techniques, we describe two case studies with a focus on the integration of various techniques. The first case study deals with fire hazard prevention in Southern France, and the second one with groundwater management on the atoll of Kiribati. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of participatory approaches.
This chapter provides an overview on the mutual support between two active trends in the study of complex social systems: participatory approaches and social simulations. It highlights the expectations which arise from this association, from increasing quality of social simulation model in capturing better social complexity, to improving the suitability of using social simulations. It considers both objectives of increasing knowledge, as well as of supporting policy making processes. If participation can help to improve models, simulation models are also expected to support participatory processes to extend and share available knowledge among participants. Technically, the association builds upon various trends from computer sciences, social and management sciences, including system dynamics. All these domains have already developed tools, protocols, and devices, making the way to implement “participatory modelling”. These allow better elicitation of knowledge, including this knowledge in models, building models as a collaborative process, making models user - friendly for lay people or stakeholders, and ensuring the possibility of proper use of simulation outcomes. However, as far as participation in the modelling process is concerned, existing examples show great diversity, which is inadequately acknowledged. We describe this diversity according to three dimensions: stages in the modelling process, degree of involvement and heterogeneity of stakeholders involved. All the possible settings do not give the same meaning nor the same level of empowerment to participants. The issue of control over dissemination of information through the display of simulation outcomes is particularly at stake. We then give two examples in natural resources management where simulation modelling and participatory approaches are jointly used: fire hazard management in a southern French metropolitan area, and domestic water supply on a Pacific atoll. Both explore various ways in involving stakeholders. Finally the paper points out the various roles participants can play in participatory modelling processes from knowledge providers to simulation users through knowledge brokers. We develop the case that participatory modelling is contingent to people, but also to time and available means. Each implementation must therefore be tuned to its context.
The Malaysian agricultural crop mix has shifted, and this study has applied the system dynamics methodology to understand this process and examine the impact of policy interventions. Divided into two reports, Phase I of this study looks at the paddy and rice sector. The following research questions were explored:
-What are the structural and institutional factors and policy paradigms that cause slow growth in paddy and rice production?
-What are the structural and institutional factors that cause low productivity, hence low return to paddy producer?
-What are the policy options needed to induce growth, equity and sustainability of the sector?
This study found that the vicious circle of the slow growth of the paddy and rice sector is not unbreakable, a new virtuous circle can be created through the optimum complementarity between research & development and extension (RDE) strategies, productive subsidies and incentive, and local input development. This entails energising RDE to enhance yield, cropping intensity and extension effectiveness, provision of productive incentives for efficient use of input (land, labour, non-labour input and capital) and actualise local input production to ensure the sustenance of the paddy and rice sector.
Educational technology supports meaningful learning and enables the presentation of spatial and dynamic images, which portray relationships among complex con-cepts. The Technology-Enabled Active Learning (TEAL) Project at the Massachu-setts Institute of Technology (MIT) involves media-rich software for simulation and visualization in freshman physics carried out in a specially redesigned classroom to facilitate group interaction. These technology-based tec learning materials are especially useful in electromagnetism to help students conceptualize phenomena and processes. This study analyzes the effects of the unique learning environment of the TEAL project on students ’ cognitive and affective outcomes. The assessment of the project included examining students ’ conceptual understanding before and after studying electromagnetism in a media-rich environment. We also investigated the effect of this environment on students ’ preferences regarding the various teaching methods. As part of the project, we developed pre- and posttests consisting of conceptual questions from standardized tests, as well as questions designed to assess the effect of visualizations and experiments. The research population consisted of 811 undergraduate students. It consisted of a small- and a large-scale experimental groups and a control group. TEAL students improved their conceptual understanding
This article deals with the diffusion and standardization rivalry between two similar but incompatible formats for home videocassette recorders (VCRs): the Betamax, introduced in 1975 by the Sony Corporation, and the VHS (Video Home System), introduced in 1976 by the Victor Company of Japan (Japan Victor or JVC). Despite being first to the home market, the Beta format fell behind the VHS in market share during 1978 and declined thereafter. By the end of the 1980s, Sony and its partners had ceased producing Beta models. This study analyzes the history of this rivalry and examines its context—a mass consumer market with a dynamic standardization process subject to “bandwagon” effects that took years to unfold and that were largely shaped by the strategic maneuvering of the VHS producers.
En la UE se ha estimado que los costes de la congesti�n representan el 2% de su PIB y que el coste de la poluci�n del aire y ruido supera el 0,6% del PIB, siendo alrededor del 90% de los mismos ocasionados por el transporte terrestre. Ante este hecho y el continuo aumento de la demanda del transporte privado frente al p�blico para los desplazamientos, muchos abogan por una conjunci�n de medidas tanto restrictivas como alternativas al uso del coche. Dentro de las primeras se encuentra el establecimiento de un peaje o una tarifa por el uso de las carreteras, medida que aunque desde el punto de vista de la Teor�a Econ�mica es la manera m�s eficiente para corregir el fallo de mercado que supone la congesti�n, desde la visi�n de pol�ticos y del p�blico no goza de gran aceptaci�n. En este trabajo se pretende hacer una simulaci�n de los efectos que tendr�a sobre el bienestar social de la implantaci�n de una medida de este tipo en la Bah�a de C�diz. In the European Union it has been estimated that the congestion cost are the 2% of the gross domestic product and the cost of pollution and noise is over 0,6%, olso it is known that the 90% of this cost are caused by overland transport. For this reason and for the always increasing demand of private transport, there are professionals who thinks that the solution have to be restrictive measures added to alternatives to the car. road pricing is a restrictive measures that for the economic theory is the most efficient way to solve congestion cost but for politicians and user of transport is not always accepted. In this study we are going to simulate road pricing for commuters in the Bah�a of C�diz and then it will be estimated welfare effects.
This paper examines product policy in relation to the experience curve and product life cycle concepts in the context of the experience of the thirteen major firms in the Western European synthetic fibers industry. It examines the hypothesis based on Boston Consulting Group and the Profit Impact of Market Share (PIMS) evidence that late entrants to a market will be at a competitive disadvantage because they lack the accumulated experience of the pioneering firms. For each of the three main synthetic fibres, acrylic, nylon and polyester, it was found that the early entrants who established major market shares early in the growth phase of the product life cycle were able to maintain that leadership nearly twenty years later. In contrast not only did almost all the late entrants fail to achieve significant market shares but in the difficult market conditions between 1974 and 1981 they provided seven out of nine market withdrawals.
"Technology is not the answer to the population problem. Rather, what is needed is 'mutual coercion mutually agreed upon'--everyone voluntarily giving up the freedom to breed without limit. If we all have an equal right to many 'commons' provided by nature and by the activities of modern governments, then by breeding freely we behave as do herders sharing a common pasture. Each herder acts rationally by adding yet one more beast to his/her herd, because each gains all the profit from that addition, while bearing only a fraction of its costs in overgrazing, which are shared by all the users. The logic of the system compels all herders to increase their herds without limit, with the 'tragic,' i.e. 'inevitable,' 'inescapable' result: ruin the commons. Appealing to individual conscience to exercise restraint in the use of social-welfare or natural commons is likewise self-defeating: the conscientious will restrict use (reproduction), the heedless will continue using (reproducing), and gradually but inevitably the selfish will out-compete the responsible. Temperance can be best accomplished through administrative law, and a 'great challenge...is to invent the corrective feedbacks..to keep custodians honest.'"
This paper studies the strategic interaction among firms in a growing market. It focuses upon the investment decisions of the firms. Central to the analysis is the idea that investment and growth for the firm are constrained by physical and financial factors. Firms that enter early and/or firms that can grow rapidly can make preemptive investments. The paper studies the optimal levels of preemptive investment and the implications for the long-run structure of the market. The analysis of optimal preemption is similar in spirit to the von Stackelberg equilibrium concept in oligopoly theory.
En la UE se ha estimado que los costes de la congesti�n representan el 2% de su PIB y que el coste de la poluci�n del aire y ruido supera el 0,6% del PIB, siendo alrededor del 90% de los mismos ocasionados por el transporte terrestre. Ante este hecho y el continuo aumento de la demanda del transporte privado frente al p�blico para los desplazamientos, muchos abogan por una conjunci�n de medidas tanto restrictivas como alternativas al uso del coche. Dentro de las primeras se encuentra el establecimiento de un peaje o una tarifa por el uso de las carreteras, medida que aunque desde el punto de vista de la Teor�a Econ�mica es la manera m�s eficiente para corregir el fallo de mercado que supone la congesti�n, desde la visi�n de pol�ticos y del p�blico no goza de gran aceptaci�n. En este trabajo se pretende hacer una simulaci�n de los efectos que tendr�a sobre el bienestar social de la implantaci�n de una medida de este tipo en la Bah�a de C�diz. In the European Union it has been estimated that the congestion cost are the 2% of the gross domestic product and the cost of pollution and noise is over 0,6%, olso it is known that the 90% of this cost are caused by overland transport. For this reason and for the always increasing demand of private transport, there are professionals who thinks that the solution have to be restrictive measures added to alternatives to the car. road pricing is a restrictive measures that for the economic theory is the most efficient way to solve congestion cost but for politicians and user of transport is not always accepted. In this study we are going to simulate road pricing for commuters in the Bah�a of C�diz and then it will be estimated welfare effects.
This paper examines the dynamics of allocation under increasing returns within a model where agents choose between technologies competing for adoption and where each technology improves as it gains in adoption. It shows that the economy, over time, can become locked-in, by "random" historical events, to a technological path that is not necessarily efficient, not possible to predict from usual knowledge of supply and demand functions, and not easy to change by standard tax or subsidy policies. Rational expectations about future agents' technology choices can exacerbate this lock-in tendency. It discusses the implications for economic history, policy, and forecasting. Copyright 1989 by Royal Economic Society.
The Complete Guide to Simulations and Serious Games
- C Aldrich
Aldrich C. 2009. The Complete Guide to Simulations and Serious Games. Pfeiffer: San
Francisco, CA.
- L Argote
Argote L. 1999. Organizational Learning: Creating, Retaining and Transferring Knowledge.
Kluwer: Norwell, MA.
The SAIC Solution: How We Built an $8 Billion Employee-Owned Technology Company
- J Beyster
Beyster J. 2007. The SAIC Solution: How We Built an $8 Billion Employee-Owned
Technology Company. Wiley: Hoboken, NJ.
People Express Management Flight Simulator (updated version)
- J Sterman
Sterman J. 1988. People Express Management Flight Simulator (updated version). Available: http://www.strategydynamics.com/microworlds/people-express [13 June 2014].