The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology: Practical and Theoretical Implications of 85 Years of Research Findings

Abstract

This article summarizes the practical and theoretical implications of 85 years of research in personnel selection. On the basis of meta-analytic findings, this article presents the validity of 19 selection procedures for predicting job performance and training performance and the validity of paired combinations of general mental ability (GMA) and the 18 other selection procedures. Overall, the 3 combinations with the highest multivariate validity and utility for job performance were GMA plus a work sample test (mean validity of .63), GMA plus an integrity test (mean validity of .65), and GMA plus a structured interview (mean validity of .63). A further advantage of the latter 2 combinations is that they can be used for both entry level selection and selection of experienced employees. The practical utility implications of these summary findings are substantial. The implications of these research findings for the development of theories of job performance are discussed.

Full text

Pwcholo2ical Bulletin
199M.Vol.12~.No.2. 262-27~ Copynght 1998 by the Amencan PsychologIcal ASSO<:I."on.In<.
0033-2'!09/9I!1SJ.OO
The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology:
Practical and Theoretical Implications of 85 Years of Research Findings
Frank L. Schmidt
University of Iowa John E. Hunter
Michigan State University
This article summarizes the practical and theoretical implications of 85 years of research in personnel
selection. On the basis of meta-analytic findings, this article presents the validity of 19 selection
procedures for predicting job performance and training performance and the validity of paired
combinations of general mental ability (GMA) and the 18 other selection procedures. Overall. the
3 combinations with the highest multivariate validity and utility for job performance were GMA
plus a work sample test (mean validity of .63). GMA plus an integrity test (mean validity of .65).
and GMA plus a structured interview (mean validity of .63). A further advantage of the latter 2
combinations is that they can be used for both entry level selection and selection of experienced
employees. The practical utility implications of these summary findings are substantial. The implica-
tions of these research findings for the development of theories of job performance are discussed.
From the point of viewof practical value. the most important
property of a personnelassessmentmethod is predictivevalidity:
the abilityto predictfuturejob performance,job-related learning
(such as amount of learning in training and development pro-
grams), and other criteria. The predictive validity coefficient is
directly proportional to the practical economic value (utility)
of the assessment method (Brogden. 1949; Schmidt, Hunter.
McKenzie. & Muldrow. 1979). Use of hiring methods with
increased predictive validity leads to substantial increases in
employee performance as measured in percentage increases in
output. increasedmonetaryvalueof output. andincreasedlearn-
ing of job-related skills (Hunter. Schmidt. & Judiesch, 1990).
Today.the validity of different personnel measures can be
determined with the aid of 85 years of research. The most well-
known conclusion from this research is that for hiring employ-
ees without previous experience in the job the most valid pre-
dictor of future performanceand learningis generalmental abil- .
ity ([GMA], Le.. intelligence or general cognitive ability;
Hunter & Hunter, 1984; Ree & Earles, 1992). GMA can be
measured using commercially available tests. However.many
other measures can also contribute to the overall validity of
the selection process. These include. for example. measures of
Frank L. Schmidt. Department of Management and Organization. Uni-
versity of Iowa; John E. Hunter. Department of Psychology. Michigan
State University.
An earlier version of this article was presented to Korean Human
Resource Managers in Seoul. South Korea, June 1I. 1996. The presenta-
tion was sponsored by Tong Yang Company. We would like to thank
President Wang-Ha Cho of Tong Yang for his support and efforts in this
connection. We would also like to thank Deniz Ones and Kuh Yoon for
their assistance in preparing Tables 1 and 2 and Gershon Ben-Shakhar
for his comments on research on graphology.
Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Frank
L. Schmidt. Department of Management and Organization. College of
Business. University of Iowa. Iowa City. Iowa 52240. Electronic mail
may be sent to frank-schmidt@uiowa.edu.
conscientiousness and personal integrity. structured employment
interviews, and (for experienced workers) job knowledge and
work sample tests.
On the basis of meta-analytic findings, this article examines
and summarizes what 85 years of research in personnel psychol-
ogy has revealed about the validity of measures of 19 different
selection methods that can be used in making decisions about
hiring, training, and developmental assignments. In this sense,
this article is an expansion and updating of Hunter and Hunter
( 1984). In addition, this article examines how well certain com-
binations of these methods work. These 19 procedures do not
all work equally well; the research evidence indicates that some
work very well and some work very poorly. Measures of GMA
work very well. for example, and graphology does not work at
all. The cumulative findings show that the research knowledge
, now available makes it possible for employers today to substan-
tially increase the productivity, output. and learning ability of
their workforces by using procedures that work well and by
avoiding those that do not. Finally. we look at the implications
of these research findings for the development of theories of job
performance.
Determinants of Practical Value (Utility)
of Selection Methods
The validityof a hiring method is a direct determinantof its
practical value, but not the only determinant. Another direct
determinant is the variability of job performance. At one ex-
treme, if variability were zero, then all applicants would have
exactly the same level o'.later job performanceif hired. In this
case. the practical value or utility of all selection procedures
would be zero. In such a hypotheticalcase. it does not matter
who is hired. because all workers are the same. At the other
extreme. ifperformancevariabilityis very large.it thenbecomes
importanttohirethe best performingapplicantsand the practical
utility of valid selection methods is very large. As it happens.
this "extreme" case appears to be the reality for most jobs.
262

VALIDITY AND CTILITY
Research over the last 15 years has shown that the variability
of performance and output among (incumbent) workers is very
large and that it would be even larger if all job applicants were
hired or if job applicants were selected randomly from among
those that apply (cf. Hunter et al.. 1990; Schmidt & Hunter,
1983; Schmidt et al., 1979). This latter variability is called the
applicant pool variability, and in hiring this is the variability
that operates to determine practical value. This is because one
is selecting new employees from the applicant pool, not from
among those already on the job in question.
The variability of employee job performance can be measured
in a number of ways, but two scales have typically been used:
dollar value of output and output as a percentage of mean output.
The standard deviation across individuals of the dollar value of
output (called SDy) has been found to be at minimum 40% of
the mean salary of the job (Schmidt & Hunte!; 1983; Schmidt
et al., 1979; Schmidt. Mack, & Hunte!; 1984). The 40% figure
is a lower bound value; actual values are typically considerably
higher. Thus, if the average salary for a job is $40,000, then
SDy is at least $16,000. If performance has a normal distribution,
then workers at the 84th percentile produce $16,000 more per
year than average workers (i.e., those at the 50th percentile).
And the difference between workers at the 16th percentile ( "be-
low average" workers) and those at the 84th percentile ("supe-
rior" workers) is twice that: $32,000 per year. Such differences
are large enough to be important to the economic health of an
organization.
Employee output can also be measured as a percentage of
mean output; that is, each employee's output is divided by the
output of workers at the 50th percentile and then multiplied by
100. Research shows that the standard deviation of output as a
percentage of average output (called SDp) varies by job level.
For unskilled and semi-skilled jobs, the average SDp figure is
19%. For skilled work, it is 32%, and for managerial and profes-
sional jobs, it is 48% (Hunter et aI., 1990). These figures are
averages based on all available studies that measured or counted
the amount of output for different employees. If a superior
worker is defined as one whose performance (output) is at the
84th percentile (that is, 1 SD above the mean), then a superior
worker in a lower level job produces 19% more output than an
average worker. a superior skilled worker produces 32% more
output than the average skilled worker, and a superior manager
or professional produces output 48% above the average for those
jobs. These differences are large and they indicate that the payotf
from using valid hiring methods to predict later job performance
is quite large.
Another determinant of the practical value of selection meth-
ods is the selection ratio-the proportion of applicants who are
hired. At one extreme, if an organization must hire all who
apply for the job, no hiring procedure has any practical value.
At the other extreme, if the organization has the luxury of hiring
only the top scoring I%, the practical value of gains from selec-
tion per person hired will be extremely large. But few organiza-
tions can afford to reject 99% of all job applicants. Actual
selection ratios are typically in the .30 to .70 range, a range that
still produces substantial practical utility.
The actual formula for computing practical gains per person
hired per year on the job is a three way product (Brogden. 1949;
Schmidt et al.. 1979):
263
.;~.u/hire/year =f::.r"SD"i,
(when performance is measured in dollar value) (I)
llU/hire/year =llr'CVSD~ix
(when performance is measured in percentage of average output).
(2)
In these equations. f::.r(Vis the difference between the validity
of the new (more valid) selection method and the old selection
method. If the old selection method has no validity (that is,
selection is random), then llr '0' is the same as the validity of
the new procedure; that is, llrry =rry. Hence, relative to random
selection, practical value (utility) is directly proportional to
validity. If the old procedure has some validity, then the utility
gain is directly proportional to llr cry'Z, is the average score on
the employment procedure of those hired (in z-score form), as
compared to the general applicant pool. The smaller the selection
nitio, the higher this value will be. The first equation expresses
.selection utility in dollars. For example, a typical final figure
for a medium complexity job might be $18,000, meaning that
increasing the validity of the hiring methods leads to an average
increase in output per hire of $18,000 per year. To get the full
value, one must of course multiply by the number of work-
ers hired. If 100 are hired, then the increase would be
(100)($18,000) = $1,800,000. Finally, one must consider the
number of years these workers remain on the job. because the
$18,000 per worker is realized each year that worker remains
on the job. Of all these factors that affect the practical value.
only validity is a characteristic of the personnel measure itself.
The second equation expresses the practical value in percent-
age of increase in output. For example, a typical figure is 9%,
meaning that workers hired with the improved selection method
will have on average 9% higher output. A 9% increase in labor
productivity would typically be very important economically
for the firm, and might make the difference between success
and bankruptcy.
What we have presented here is not. of course, a comprehen-
sivediscussion of selection utility. Readers who would like more
detail are referred to the research articles cited above and to
Boudreau (1983a, 1983b, 1984), Cascio and Silbey (1979).
Cronshaw and Alexander ( 1985), Hunter, Schmidt, and Coggin
( 1988), Hunter and Schmidt (1982a, 1982b), Schmidt and
Hunter (1983), Schmidt, Hunter, Outerbridge, and Trattner
( 1986), Schmidt, Hunter, and Pearlman ( 1982), and Schmidt et
al. ( 1984). Our purpose here is to make three important points:
(a) the economic value of gains from improved hiring methods
are typically quite large, ( b )these gains are directly proportional
to the size of the increase in validity when moving from the old
to the new selection methods, and (c) no other characteristic of
a personnel measure is as important as predictive validity. If
one looks at the two equations above. one sees that practical
value per person hired is a three way product. One of the three
elements in that three way product is predictive validity. The
other two- SD" or SD~ and Z(-are equally important, but they
are characteristics of the job or the situation, not of the personnel
measure.

264 SCHMIDT AND HUNTER
Validity of Personnel Assessment Methods:
85 Years of Research Findings
Researchstudiesassessing theability of personnelassessment
methodsto predict future job performanceand future learning
(e.g., in training programs) have been conductedsince the first
decade of the 20th century. However,as early as the 1920s it
became apparent that different studies conducted on the same
assessmentprocedure did not appear to agree in their results.
Validityestimates for the same method and samejob were quite
different for different studies. During the 1930s and 1940s the
belief developed that this state of affairs resulted from subtle
differences between jobs that were difficult or impossible for
job analysts and job analysis methodology to detect. That is.
researchers concluded that the validity of a given procedure
really was different in different settings for what appeared to
be basically the samejob, and that the conflictingfindings in
validity studies were just reflecting this fact of reality. This
belief, calledthetheoryof situationalspecificity.remaineddom-
inant in personnel psychologyuntil the late 1970swhen it was
discovered that most of the differences across studies were due
to statistical and measurementartifacts and not to real differ-
ences in the jobs (Schmidt & Hunter, 1977; Schmidt, Hunter,
Pearlman, & Shane, 1979). The largest of these artifacts was
simple sampling error variation, caused by the use of small
samples in the studies. (The number of employees per study
was usually in the 40-70 range.) This realization led to the
developmentof quantitativetechniques collectivelycalled meta-
analysis that could combine validity estimates across studies
and correct for the effects of these statistical and measurement
artifacts (Hunter &Schmidt, 1990;Hunter,Schmidt,& Jackson.
1982). Studies based on meta-analysis provided more accurate
estimates of the average operational validity and showed that
the levelof real variability of validitieswas usually quitesmall
and mightin fact be zero (Schmidt, 1992; Schmidtet al., 1993).
In fact, the findingsindicatedthat the variabilityof validity was
not only smail or zero across settings for the same type of job,
but was also smail across differentkinds of jobs (Hunter, 1980;
Schmidt, Hunter. & Pearlman, 1980). These findings made it
possibleto select themostvalidpersonnelmeasures for anyjob.
They also made it possible to compare the validity of different
personnel measures forjobs in general, as we do in this article.
Table I summarizes research findingsfor the prediction of
performanceon the job. The firstcolumn of numbers in Table
I shows the estimated mean validity of 19 selection methods
for predicting performance on the job, as revealed by meta-
analyses conducted over the last 20 years. Performanceon the
job was typically measured using supervisory ratings of job
performance. but production records. sales records, and other
measures were also used. The sources and other information
about these validityfigures are givenin the notes to Table I.
Many of the selection methods in Table I also predict job-
related learning; that is. the acquisition of job knowledge with
experience on the job, and the amount learned in training and
developmentprograms.However.the overallamount of research
on the predictionof learningis less. Formanyof theprocedures
in Table I. there is little research evidence on their ability to
predict futurejob-related learning.Table2 summarizesavailable
research findings for the prediction of performance in training
programs. The first column in Table 2 shows the mean validity
of 10 selection methods as revealed by available meta-analyses.
In the vast majority of the studies includedin these meta-analy-
ses. performance in training was assessed using objective mea-
sures of amount learned on the job: trainer ratings of amount
learned were used in about 5% of the studies.
Unlessotherwise notedinTables I and2, allvalidityestimates
in Tables I and 2 are corrected for the downward bias due to
measurement errorin the measures of job performance and to
range restriction on the selection method in incumbentsamples
relative toapplicant populations.Observedvalidityestimatesso
corrected estimate operational validities of selection methods
when used to hire from applicant pools. Operational validities
are also referred to as true validities.
In the pantheon of 19 personnel measures in Table 1. GMA
(also called general cognitive ability and general intelligence)
occupies a special place, for several reasons. First, of all proce-
dures that can be used for all jobs, whether entry level or ad-
vanced, it has the highest validity and lowest application cost.
Work sample measures are slightly more valid but are much
more costly and can be used only with applicants who already
know the job or have been trained for the occupation or job.
Structured employmentinterviews are more costly and. in some
forms, contain job knowledge componentsand therefore are not
suitable for inexperienced, entry level applicants. The assess-
ment center and job tryout are both much more expensive and
have less validity.Second, the research evidencefor the validity
of GMA measures for predicting job performance is stronger
than that for any othermethod (Hunter, 1986:Hunter& Schmidt,
1996;Ree & Earles, 1992; Schmidt& Hunter, 1981). Literally
thousands of studies have been conducted over the last nine
decades. By contrast, only 89 validity studies of the struc-
tured interview have been conducted (McDaniel, Whetzel,
Schmidt, & Mauer,1994). Third, GMA has been shown to be
the best available predictor ofjob-related learning. It is the best
predictor of acquisitionofjob knowledge on thejob (Schmidt&
<Hunter,1992; Schmidt, Hunter, & Outerbridge, 19861and of
.performanceinjob trainingprograms(Hunter,1986;Hunter&
Hunter,1984;Ree& Earles, 1992). Fourth,the theoreticalfoun-
dation for GMA is stronger than for any other personnel mea-
sure. Theories of intelligence have been developedand tested
by psychologistsfor over 90 years(Brody, 1992;Carroll, 1993;
Jensen, 1998). As a resultof this massiverelated research litera-
ture, the meaningof the construct of intelligenceis muchclearer
than, for example, the meaning of what is measured by inter-
viewsor assessmentcenters(Brody, 1992;Hunter,1986:Jensen,
1998).
The value of .5I in Table I for the validityof GMA is from
a very large meta-analytic study conducted for the U.S. Depart-
ment of Labor (Hunter, 1980; Hunter & Hunter, 1984). The
database for this unique meta-analysis included over 32,000
employees in 5 IS widelydiverse civilianjobs. This meta-analy-
sis examined both performance on the job and performance in
job trainingprograms. This meta-analysisfound that the validity
of GMA for predicting job performance was .58 for profes-
sional-managerialjobs, .56 for high level complex technical
jobs. .51 for medium complexityjobs, .40for semi-skilledjobs,
and .23 for completely unskilledjobs. The validity for the mid-
dle complexity level of jobs (.51) -which includes 62%of all

VALIDITY A0ID UTILITY 265
Note. T & E =training and experience. The percentage of increase in validity is also the percentage of increase in utility (practical value). All of the validities presented
are based on the most current meta-analytic results for the various predictors. See Schmidt. Ones. and Hunter (1992) for an overview. All of the validities in this table are
for the criterion of overall job performance. Unless otherwise noted. all validity estimates are corrected for the downward bias due to measurement error in the measure
of job performance and range restriction on the predictor in incumbent samples relative to applicant populations. The correlations between GMA and other predictors are
corrected for range restriction but not for measurement error in either measure (thus they are smaller than fully corrected mean values in the literarure). These correlations
represent observed score correlations between selection methods in applicant populations.
.From Hunter (1980). The value used for the validity of GMA is the average validity of GMA for medium complexity jobs (covering more than 60% of all jobs in the
United States).Validitiesare higher for more complexjobs and lower for less complexjobs. as described in the text. bFrom Hunterand Hunter (1984. Table 10).The
correction for range restriction was not possible in these data. The correlation between work sample scores and ability scores is .38 (Schmidt. Hunter. & Outerbridge.
1986). c,d FromOnes. Viswesvaran.and Schmidt (1993.Table 8). The figureof .41 is from predictivevaliditystudiesconductedon job applicants.The validityof .31
for conscientiousness measures is from Mount and Barrick (1995. Table 2). The correlation between integrity and ability is zero. as is the correlation between conscientiousness
and ability (Ones. 1993: Ones et al.. 1993). d From McDaniel. Whetzel. Schmidt. and Mauer (1994. Table 4). Values used are those from studies in which the job
performance ratings were for research purposes only (not administrative ratings). The correlations between interview scores and ability scores are from Huffcutt. Roth.
and McDaniel(1996. Table3). The correlationfor structUredinterviewsis .30 and for unstrUcruredinterviews..38. gFrom Hunterand Hunter(1984. Table II). The
correction for range restriction was not possible in these data. The correlation between job knowledge scores and GMA scores is .48 (Schmidt, Hunter. & Outerbridge.
1986). 'From Hunter and Hunter (1984. Table 9). No correction for range restriction (if any) could be made. (Range restriction is unlikely with this selection method.)
The correlation between job tryout ratings and ability scores is estimated at .38 (Schmidt. Hunter. & Outerbridge. 1986): that is. it was taken to be the same as that between
job sample tests and ability. Use of the mean correlation between supervisory performance ratings and ability scores yields a similar value (.35. uncorrected for measurement
error). 'From Hunter and Hunter (1984. Table 10). No correction for range restriction (if any) could be made. The average fully corrected correlation between ability
and peer ratings of job performance is approximately .55. If peer ratings are based on an average rating from 10 peers. the familiar Spearman-Brown formula indicates
that the interrater reliability of peer ratings is approximately .91 (Viswesvaran. Ones. & Schmidt. 1996). Assuming a reliability of .90 for the ability measure. the correlation
between ability scores and peer ratings is .55~.91(.90) =.50. JFrom McDaniel. Schmidt, and Hunter (1988a). These calculations are based on an estimate of the correlation
between T & E behavioral consistency and ability of .40. This estimate reftects the fact that the achievements measured by this procedure depend on nOt only personality
and other noncognitive characteristics. but also on mental ability. . From Hunter and Hunter (1984. Table 9). No correction for range restriction (if any) was possible. In
the absence of any data. the correlation between reference checks and ability was taken as .00. Assuming a larger correlation would lead to lower estimated incremental
validity. IFromHunter(1980).McDaniel.Schmidt.andHunter(1988b).andHunterandHunter(1984).Intheonlyrelevantmeta-analysis.Schmidt.Hunter.andOuterbridge
(1986.Table 5) found the correlationbetweenjob experienceand ability to be .00. This valuewas used here. mThe correlation betweenbiodatascores and abilityscores
is .50 (Schmidt, 1988). Both the validity of .35 used here and the intercorrelation of .50 are based on the Supervisory Profile Record Biodata Scale (Rothstein. Schmidt.
Erwin. Owens. and Sparks. 1990). (The validity for the Managerial Profile Record Biodata Scale in predicting managerial promotion and advancement IS higher [.52;
Carlson. Scullen. Schmidt. Rothstein. & Erwin. 1998]. However. rate of promotion is a measure different from overall performance on one's current job and managers are
less representative of the general working population than are first line supervisors). 'From Gaugler. Rosenthal. Thornton. and Benson (1987, Table 8). The correlation
between assessment center ratings and ability is estimated at .50 (Collins. 1998). It should be noted that most assessment centers use ability tests as pan of the evaluation
process: Gaugleret aI. (1987) found that 74% of the 106assessment centersthey examinedused a written test of intelligence(see their Table 4). 0FromMcDaniel.
SchmidL and Hunter (1988a. Table 3). The calculations here are based on a zero correlation between the T & E point method and ability; the assumption of a positive
correlation would at most lower the estimate of incremental validity from .0 I to .00. 'From Hunter and Hunter (1984. Table 9). For purposes of these calculations. we
assumed a zero correlation between years of education and ability. The reader should remember that this is the correlation within the applicant pool of individuals who
apply to get a panicular job. In the general population. the correlation between education and ability is about .55. Even within applicant pools there is probably at least
a small positive correlation: thus. our figure of .0 I probably overestimates the incremental validity of years of education over general mental ability. Assuming even a
small positive value for the correlation between education and ability would drive the validity increment of .01 toward .00. 'From Hunter and Hunter (1984. Table 9).
The general finding is that interests and ability are uncorrelated (Holland. 1986). and that was assumed to be the case here. 'From Neter and Ben-Shakhar (1989). Ben-
Shakhar (1989). Ben-Shakhar. Bar-Hillel. Bilu. Ben-Abba. and Rug (1986). and Bar-Hillel and Ben-Shakhar (1986). Graphology scores were assumed to be uncorrelated
with mental ability. .From Hunter and Hunter (1984. Table 9). Age was assumed to be unrelated to ability within applicant pools.
Table I
Predictive ValiditY for Overall Job Perfonnance of General Mental Abilitv (GMA) Scores
Combined With a Second Predictor UsinR (Standardized) Multiple ReRression
Standardized regressIOn
Gain in validity weIghts
from adding % increase
Personnel measures Validity (r) Multiple Rsupplement in validity GMA Supplement
.
GMA tests' .51
Work sample testsb .54 .63 .12 24% .36 Al
Integrity tests' .41 .65 .14 27% .51 .41
ConscientiousnesstestsJ .31 .60 .09 18% .51 .31
Employmentinterviews(structured)" .51 .63 .12 24% .39 .39
Employmentinterviews(unstructured)' .38 .55 .04 8% .43 .22
Job knowledgetests" .48 .58 .07 14% .36 .31
Job tryout procedureh .44 .58 .07 14% .40 .20
Peer ratings' .49 .58 .07 14% .35 .31
T & E behavioralconsistencymethod! .45 .58 .07 14% .39 .31
Referencechecksk .26 .57 .06 12% .51 .26
Job experience(years)1 .18 .54 .03 6% .51 .18
Biographicaldata measuresm .35 .52 .01 2% .45 .13
Assessmentcenters" .37 .53 .02 4% .43 .15
T & E point method° .11 .52 .01 2% .39 .29
Yearsof educationP .10 .52 .01 2% .51 .10
Interests .10 .52 .01 2% .51 .10
Graphology' .02 .51 '.00 0% .51 .02
Age' -.01 .5'1 .00 0% .51 -.01

266 SCHMIDT AND HUNTER
Table 2
Predictive Validityfor Overall Perfomwnce in Job Training Programs of General Mental Ability (GMA) Scores
Combined With a Second Predictor Using (Standardized) Multiple Regression
Note. The percentageof increase in validityis also the percentageof increasein utility (practicalvalue).All of the validitiespresentedare based
on the most current meta-analyticresults reported for the various predictors.All of the validities in this table are for the criterion of overall
performancein job training programs. Unless otherwisenoted. all validity estimates are corrected for the downward bias due to measurementerror
in the measure of job performanceand range restriction on the predictor in incumbent samples relativeto applicant populations.All correlations
between GMA and other predictors are corrected for range restriction but not for measurement error.These correlations represent observed score
correlations betweenselection methods in applicant populations. ..
.The validity of GMA is from Hunter and Hunter (1984. Table 2). It can also be found in Hunter (1980). b.cThe validity of .38 for integrity tests
is from Schmidt. Ones. and Viswesvaran (1994). Integrity tests and conscientiousness tests have been found to correlate zero with GMA (Ones.
1993; Ones. Viswesvaran & Schmidt. 1993). The validity of .30 for conscientiousness measures is from the meta-analysis presented by Mount and
Barrick(1995.Table2). dThe validityof interviewsis fromMcDaniel.Whetzel.Schmidt.and Mauer(1994.Table5). McDanielet al. reported
values of .34 and .36 for structured and unstructured interviews. respectively. However. this small difference of .02 appears to be a result of second
order sampling error (Hunter & Schmidt. 1990. Ch. 9). We therefore used the average value of .35 as the validity estimate for structured and
unstructured interviews. The correlation between interviews and ability scores (.32) is the overall figure from Huffcutt. Roth. and McDaniel 0996.
Table 3) across all levels of interview structure. 'The validity for peer rarings is from Hunter and Hunter (1984. Table 8). These calculations are
based on an esrimate of the correlation between ability and peer ratings of .50. (See note i to Table I). No correction for range restriction (if any)
was possible in the data. fThe validity of reference checks is from Hunter and Hunter (1984. Table 8). The correlation between reference checks
and ability was taken as .00. Assumption of a larger correlation will reduce the estimate of incremental validity. No correction for range restriction
waspossible. gThevalidityof job experienceis from HunterandHunter(1984.Table6). Thesecalculationsare basedon an estimateof the
correlation betweenjob experience and ability of zero. (See note I to Table I). bThe validity of biographical data measures is from Hunterand
Hunter (1984. Table 8). This validity estimate is not adjusted for range restriction (if any). The correlation between biographical data measures and
ability is estimated at .50 (Schmidt. 1988). IThe validity of education is from Hunter and Hunter (1984. Table 6). The correlation between education
and ability within applicant pools was taken as zero. (See note p to Table 1). j The validity of interests is from Hunter and Hunter (1984. Table
8). The correlation between interests and ability was taken as zero (Holland, 1986).
thejobs in the U.S.economy-is the value entered in Table 1.
This category includes skilled blue collar jobs and mid-level
white collarjobs. such as upper level clerical and lower level
administrativejobs. Hence. the conclusions in this article apply
mainlyto the middle 62% of jobs in the U.S. economy in terms
of complexity.The validity of .51 is representativeof findings
for GMA measures in other meta-analyses (e.g., Pearlman et
al.. 1980)and it is a value that produces high practical utility.
As noted above, GMA is also an excellent predictor of job-
related learning.It has been found to have high andessentially
equal predictive validity for performance (amount learned) in
job training programs for jobs at all job levels studied. In the
U.S.Departmentof Labor research,the averagepredictivevalid-
ity performance in job training programs was .56 (Hunter &
Hunter. 1984.Table 2); this is the figure entered in Table 2.
Thus. when an employer uses GMA to select employees who
will havea high levelof performanceon thejob. that employer
is also selecting those who will learn the most from job training
programsand willacquirejob knowledgefasterfrom experience
on the job. (As can be seen from Table 2. this is also true of
"
integrity tests, conscientiousness tests, and employment
interviews.)
Because of its special status, GMA can be considered the
primary personnel measure for hiring decisions, and one can
consider the remaining 18 personnel measures as supplements
to GMA measures. That is, in the case of each of the other
measures, one' can ask the following question: When used in a
properly weighted combination with a GMA measure. how
much will each of these measures increase predictive validity
for job performance over the .51 that can be obtained by using
only GMA? This "incremental validity" translates into incre-
mental utility, that is, into increases in practical value. Because
validity is directly proportional to utility. the percentage of in-
crease in validity produc~dby the adding the second measure
is also the percentage of increase in practical value (utility).
The increase in validity (and utility) depends not only on the
validity of the measure added to GMA, but also on the correla-
tion between the two measures.The smallerthis correlations is.
the larger is the increase in overall validity. The figures for
incrementalvalidityin Table I are affectedby thesecorrelations.
Standardized regression
Gain in validity weights
from adding '7c-increase
Personnel measures Validity (r) Multiple Rsupplement in validity GMA Supplement
GMA Tests' .56
Integrity testsb .38 .67 .11 20% .56 .38
Conscientiousness testsC .30 .65 .09 16% .56 .30
Employment interviews
(structured and unstructured)d .35 .59 .03 5% .59 .19
Peer ratings' .36 .57 .01 1.4% .51 .II
Reference checksf .23 .61 .05 9% .56 .23
Job experience lyears)g .01 .56 .00 0% .56 .01
Biographical data measuresb .30 .56 .00 0% .55 .03
Years of education' .20 .60 .04 7% .56 .20
Interests' .18 .59 .03 5% .56 .18

VALIDITY AND CTILITY
The correlations betweenmental ability measuresand the other
measures were estimated from the research literature (often
from meta-analyses): the sources of these estimates are given
in the notes to Tables 1 and 2. To appropriately represent the
observedscorecorrelationsbetweenpredictorsin applicantpop-
ulations, we corrected all correlations between GMA and other
predictors for range restriction but not for.measurement error
in the measure of either predictor.
Consider work sample tests. Worksample tests are hands-on
simulationsof part or all of thejob that must be performed by
applicants.Forexample, as part of a work sampletest, an appli-
cant might be required to repair a series of defective electric
motors.Worksampletestsare oftenusedto hireskilledworkers.
such as welders. machinists.and carpenters.When combined in
a standardized regressionequation with GMA. the work sample
receives a weight of .41 and GMA receives a weight of .36.
(The standardized regression weights are given in the last two
columns of Tables1 and 2.) The validity of this weighted sum
of the two measures (the multiple R) is .63, which represents
an increment of .12 over the validity of GMA alone. This is a
24% increase in validity over that of GMA alone-and also a
24% increase in the practical value (utility) of the selection
procedure. As we saw earlier. this can be expressed as a 24%
increase in the gain in dollar value of output.Alternatively..it "
can be expressed as a 24% increasein the percentageof increase
in output produced by using GMA alone. In either case. it is a
substantial improvement.
Work sample tests can be used only with applicants who
already knowthe job. Such workersdo not need to be trained,
and so the ability of work sampleteststo predict training perfor-
mance has not been studied. Hence. there is no entry for work
sample tests in Table2. .
Integrity tests are used in industry to hire employees with
reduced probability of counterproductivejob behaviors. such as
drinking or drUgson thejob. fighting on thejob. stealing from
the employer.sabotaging equipment.and other undesirable be-
haviors. They do predict these behaviors, but they also predict
evaluationsof overalljob performance(Ones. Viswesvaran. &
Schmidt. 1993). Even though their validity is lower. integrity
tests produce a larger increment in validity (.14) and a larger
percentage of increase in validity (and utility) than do work
samples.This isbecauseintegritytestscorrelatezero withGMA
(vs. .38 for work samples). In terms of basic personalitytraits.
integritytestshavebeenfoundto measuremostlyconscientious-
ness. but also some componentsof agreeableness and emotional
stability (Ones. 1993). The figures for conscientiousness mea-
sures per se are given in Table 1.The validityof conscientious-
ness measures lMount & Barrick. 1995) is lowerthan that for
integrity tests (.31 vs. .41). its increment to validity is smaller
(.09). and its percentage of increase in validity is smaller
(18%). However,these values for conscientiousness are still
large enough to be practically useful.
A meta-analysis based on 8 studies and 2,364 individuals
estimated the mean validity of integrity tests for predicting per-
formance in training programs at .38 (Schmidt. Ones, & Vis-
wesvaran. 1994). As can be seen in Table 2. the incremental
validity for integrity tests for predicting training performance
is .11. which yields a 20% increase in validity and utility over
that produced by GMA alone. In the prediction of training per-
267
formance. integrity tests appear to produce higher incremental
validity than any other measure studied to date. However. the
increment in validity produced by measures of conscientious-
ness (.09. for a 16% increase) is only slightly smaller. The
validity estimate for conscientiousness is based on 21 studies
and 4.106 individuals (Mount & Barrick. 1995). a somewhat
larger database.
Employment interviews can be either structured or unstruc-
tured (Huffcutt. Roth. & McDaniel. 1996; McDaniel et aI.,
1994). Unstructured interviews have no fixed format or set of
questions to be answered. In fact. the same interviewer often
asks different applicants different questions. Nor is there a fixed
procedure for scoring responses; in fact. responses to individual
questions are usually not scored. and only an overall evaluation
(or rating) is given to each applicant. based on summary impres-
sions and judgments. Structured interviews are exactly the oppo-
site on all counts. In addition. the questions to be asked are
usually determined by a careful analysis of the job in question.
As a result. structured interviews are more costly to construct
and use. but are also more valid. As shown in Table 1. the
average validity of the structured interview is .51. versus .38
tor the unstructured interview (and undoubtedly lower for care-
.lessly conducted unstructured interviews). An equally weighted
combination of the structured interview and a GMA measure
yields a validity of .63. As is the case for work sample tests.
the increment in validity is .12 and the percentage of increase is
24%. These figures are considerably smaller for the unstructured
interview (see Table 1). Clearly. the combination of a structured
interview and a GMA test is an attractive hiring procedure. It
achieves 63% of the maximum possible practical value (utility),
and does so at reasonable cost.
As shown in Table 2, both struc,tured and unstructured inter-
views predict performance in job training programs with a valid-
ity of about .35 (McDaniel et ai.. 1994; see their Table 5). The
incremental validity for the prediction of training performance
is .03. a 5% increase.
The next procedure in Table 1 is job knowledge tests. Like
work sample measures, job knowledge tests cannot be used to
evaluate and hire inexperienced workers. An applicant cannot
be expected to have mastered the job knowledge required to
perform a particular job unless he or she has previously per-
formed that job or has received schooling. education, or training
for that job. But applicants for jobs such as carpenter. welder.
accountant, and chemist can be administered job knowledge
tests. Job knowledge tests are often constructed by the hiring
organization on the basis of an analysis of the tasks that make
up the job. Constructing job knowledge tests in this manner is
generally somewhat more time consuming and expensive than
constructing typical structured interviews. However. such tests
can also be purchased commercially; for example, tests are
available that measure the job knowledge required of machinists
(knowledge of metal cutting tools and procedures). Other exam-
ples are tests of knowledge of basic organic chemistry and tests
of the knowledge required of roofers. In an extensive meta-
analysis, Dye, Reck and McDaniel ( 1993) found that commer-
cially purchased job knowledge tests ("off the shelf" tests)
had slightly lower validity than job knowledge tests tailored to
the job in question. The validity figure of .48 in Table I for job
knowledge tests is for tests tailored to the job in question.

268 SCHMIDT AND HUNTER
As shown in Table I. job knowledge tests increase the validity
by .07 over that of GMA measures alone, yielding a 14% in-
crease in validity and utility. Thus job knowledge tests can have
substantial practical value to the organization using them.
For the same reasons indicated earlier for job sample tests,
job knowledge tests typically have not been used to predict
performance in training programs. Hence, little validity informa-
tion is available for this criterion. and there is no entry in Table
2 for job knowledge tests.
The next three personnel measures in Table 1 increase validity
and utility by the same amount as job knowledge tests (i.e.,
14%). However, two of these methods are considerably less
practical to use in many situations. Consider the job tryout
procedure. Unlike job knowledge tests, the job tryout procedure
can be used with entry level employees with no previous experi-
ence on the job in question. With this procedure, applicants are
hired with minimal screening and their performance on the job
is observed and evaluated for a certain period of time (typically
6-8 months). Those who do not meet a previously established
standard of satisfactory performance by the end of this proba-
tionary period are then terminated. If used in this manner, this
procedure can have substantial validity (and incremental valid-
ity), as shown in Table 1. However, it is very expensive to
implement, and low job performance by minimally screened
probationary workers can lead to serious economic losses. In
addition, it has been our experience that supervisors are reluc-
tant to terminate marginal performers. Doing so is an unpleasant
experience for them, and to avoid this experience many supervi-
sors gradually reduce the sta\1dards of minimally acceptable
performance, thus destroying the effectiveness of the procedure.
Another consideration is that some of the benefits of this method
will be captured in the normal course of events even if the
job tryout procedure is not used, because clearly inadequate
performers will be terminated after a period of time anyway.
Peer ratings are evaluations of performance or potential made
by one's co-workers; they typically are averaged across peer
raters to increase the reliability (and hence validity) of the rat-
ings. Like the job tryout procedure, peer ratings have some
limitations. First. they cannot be used for evaluating and hiring
applicants from outside the organization; they can be used only
for internal job assignment, promotion, or training assignment.
They have been used extensively for these internal personnel
decisions in the military (particularly the U.S. and Israeli mili-
taries) and some private firms, such as insurance companies.
One concern associated with peer ratings is that they will be
influenced by friendship, or social popularity, or both. Another
is that pairs or clusters of peers might secretly agree in advance
to give each other high peer ratings. However, the research that
has been done does not support these fears; for example, par-
tialling friendship measures out of the peer ratings does not
appear to affect the validity of the ratings (cf. Hollander, 1956;
Waters & Waters, 1970).
The behavioral consistency method of evaluating previous
training and experience (McDaniel, Schmidt, & Hunter, 1988a;
Schmidt, Caplan, et aI., 1979) is based on the well-established
psychological principle that the best predictor of future perfor-
mance is past performance. In developing this method, the first
step is to determine what achievement and accomplishment di-
mensions best separate top job performers from low performers.
This is done on the basis of information obtained from experi-
enced supervisors of the job in question. using a special set of
procedures (Schmidt. Caplan, et al.. 1979). Applicants are then
asked to describe (in writing or sometimes orally) their past
achievements that best illustrate their ability to perform these
functions at a high level (e.g., organizing people and getting
work done through people). These achievements are then scored
with the aid of scales that are anchored at various points by
specific scaled achievements that serve as illustrative examples
or anchors.
Use of the behavioral consistency method is not limited to
applicants with previous experience on the job in question. Pre-
vious experience on jobs that are similar to the current job in
only very general ways typically provides adequate opportunity
for demonstration of achievements. In fact. the relevant achieve-
ments can sometimes be demonstrated through community,
school, and other nonjob activities. However, some young people
just leaving secondary school may not have had adequate oppor-
tunity to demonstrate their capacity for the relevant achieve-
ments and accomplishments; the procedure might work less well
in such groups.
.fn terms of time and cost, the behavioral consistency proce-
dure is nearly as time consuming and costly to construct as
locally constructed job knowledge tests. Considerable work is
required to construct the procedure and the scoring system;
applying the scoring procedure to applicant responses is also
more time consuming than scoring of most job knowledge tests
and other tests with clear right and wrong answers. However,
especially for higher level jobs, the behavioral consistency
method may be well worth the cost and effort.
No information is available on the validity of the job tryout
or the behavioral consistency procedures for predicting perfor-
mance in training programs. However, as indicated in Table 2,
peer ratings have been found to predict performance in training
programs with a mean validity of .36 (see Hunter & Hunter,
1984, Table 8).
.; For the next procedure, reference checks, the information
. presented in Table 1 may not at present be fully accurate. The
validity studies on which the validity of .26 in Table 1 is based
were conducted prior to the development of the current legal
climate in the United States. During the 1970s and 1980s, em-
ployers providing negative information about past job perfor-
mance or. behavior on the job to prospective new employers
were sometimes subjected to lawsuits by the former employees
in question. Today. in the United States at least, many previous
employers will provide only information on the dates of employ-
ment and the job titles the former employee held. That is, past
employers today typically refuse to release information on qual-
ity or quantity of job performance, disciplinary record of the
past employee, or whether the former employee quit voluntarily
or was dismissed. This is especially likely to be the case if the
information is requested m writing: occasionally, such informa-
tion will be revealed by telephone or in face to face conversation
but one cannot be certain that this will occur.
However, in recent years the legal climate in the United States
has been changing. Over the last decade. 19 of the 50 states
have enacted laws that provide immunity from legal liability
for employers providing job references in good faith to other
employers, and such laws are under consideration in 9 other

VALIDITY AND CTILITY
states (Baker. 1996). Hence,reference checks.formerlya heav-
ily relied on procedure in hiring, may again come to provide
an increment to the validity of a GMA measure for predicting
job performance. In Table I, the increment is 12%. only two
percentagepoints less than the incrementsfor the fivepreceding
methods.
Older research indicatesthat referencechecks predict perfor-
mance in trainingwith a mean validityof .23 (Hunter & Hunter,
1984,Table8), yielding a 9% increment in validityoverGMA
tests. as shown in Table 2. But, again. these findings may no
longer hold; however.changes in the legal climate may make
these validity estimates accurate again.
Job experience as indexed in Tables 1 and 2 refers to the
numberof years of previousexperience on the same or similar
job; it conveys no informationon past performance on thejob.
In the data used to derivethe validityestimates in these tables.
job experience varied widely:from less than 6 months to more
than 30 years. Under these circumstances. the validity of job
experiencefor predictingfuture job performance is only .18 and
the incrementin validity(and utility) overthat from GMAalone
is only .03 (a 6% increase). However.Schmidt, Hunter, and
Outerbridge( 1986) found that when experienceon the job does.
not exceed5 years. thecorrelation betweenamountofjob expe-:
rience andjob performance is considerablylarger: .33 whenjob
performance is measured by supervisory ratings and .47 when
job performanceis measured using a work sample test. These
researchers found that the relation is nonlinear: Up to about 5
yearsofjob experience.job performanceincreases linearlywith
increasing experienceon thejob. After that, the curve becomes
increasingly horizontal.and further increases in job experience
produce little increase in job performance. Apparently, during
the first 5 years on these (mid-level, medium complexity) jobs.
employeeswerecontinuallyacquiring additionaljob knowledge
and skills that improved their job performance. But by the end
of 5 years this process was nearly complete. and further in-
creases injob experience led to littleincreasein job knowledge
and skills (Schmidt & Hunter. 1992). These findings suggest
that even under ideal circumstances,job experience at the start
of ajob will predictjob performanceonlyfor the first5 years on
thejob. By contrast, GMA continues to predictjob performance
indefinitely(Hunter & Schmidt, 1996;Schmidt, Hunter.Outer-
bridge,& Goff. 1988;Schmidt,Hunter.Outerbridge.& Trattner,
1986).
As shown in Table2. the amount of job experience does not
predict performance in training programs teaching new skills.
Hunter and Hunter ( 1984,Table 6) reponed a mean validity of
.01. However.one can note from this finding thatjob experience
does not retard the acquisition of new job skills in training
programs as might have been predicted fromtheories of proac-
tive inhibition.
Biographical data measurescontain questions about past life
experiences. such as early life experiences in one's family. in
high school. and in hobbies and other pursuits. For example,
there may be questions on offices held in student organizations.
on sports one participated in. and on disciplinary practices of
one's parents. Each question has been chosen for inclusion in
themeasurebecauseinthe initialdevelopmentalsampleitcorre-
lated with a criterion of job performance. performancein train-
ing,or some othercriterion.That is. biographicaldata measures
269
are empiricallydeveloped. However.they are usuallynot com-
pletelyactuarial.because somehypothesesareinvokedinchoos-
ing the beginning set of items. However,choice of the final
questions to retain for the scale is mostly actuarial. Todayanti-
discrimination laws prevent certain questions from being used.
such as sex. marital status. and age, and such items are not
included.Biographicaldata measures havebeen used to predict
performance on a wide variety of jobs. ranging in level from
blue collar unskilled jobs to scientific and managerial jobs.
These measures are also used to predict job tenure (turnover)
and absenteeism, but we do not consider these usages in this
article.
Table 1 showsthat biographical data measureshavesubstan-
tial zero-ordervalidity (.35) for predictingjob performancebut
produce an increment in validity over GMA of only .01 on
average(a 2% increase). The reason that the incrementin valid-
ity is so small is that biographicaldata correlates substantially
with GMA (.50; Schmidt, 1988). This suggeststhat in addition
to whatever other traits they measure, biographical data mea-
sW'esare also in pan indirect reflections of mental ability.
-As shownin Table2, biographicaldata measurespredict
performance in training programs with a mean validity of .30
(Hunter & Hunter, 1984, Table 8). However, because of their
relativelyhigh correlation with GMA, they produce no incre-
ment in validity for performance in training.
Biographical data measuresare technicallydifficultand time
consuming to construct (although they are easy to use once
constructed). Considerable statistical sophisticationis required
to develop them. However,some commercial firms offer vali-
dated biographical data measures for particular jobs (e.g., first
line supervisors, managers, clerical workers, and law enforce-
mentpersonnel). These firmsmaintaincontrol oftheproprietary
scoring keys and the scoring of applicant responses.
Individuals who are administered assessment centers spend
one to several days at a central location wherethey are observed
participating in such exercises as leaderless group discussions
and business games. Various ability and personality tests are
usuallyadministered.and in-depthstructured interviewsare also
pan of most assessment centers.The averageassessmentcenter
includes seven exercises or assessments and lasts 2 days
(Gaugler. Rosenthal.Thornton. & Benson, 1987). Assessment
centers are used for jobs ranging from first line supervisors to
high level management positions.
Assessmentcenters are like biographicaldata measures:They
have substantial validity but only moderate incrementalvalidity
over GMA (.01. a 2% increase). The reason is also the same:
They correlate moderately highlywith GMA-in pan because
they typicallyinclude a measure of GMA (Gaugler et aI.. 1987).
Despite the fact of relatively low incremental validity, many
organizations use assessment centers for managerialjobs be-
cause they believeassessment centersprovide themwith a wide
range of insights about candidates and their developmental
possibilities.
Assessment centers have generally not been used to predict
performance in job training programs; hence. their validity for
this purpose is unknown. However. assessment center scores
do predict rate of promotion and advancementin management.
Gaugler et al. ( 1987,Table 8) reponed a mean validity of .36
for this criterion (the same value as for the prediction of job

270 SCHMIDT AND HUNTER
performance). Measurements of career advancement include
numberof promotions.increasesin salary over giventimespans.
absolute levelof salary attained. and managementrank attained.
Rapid advancementin organizationsrequires rapid learning of
job related knowledge. Hence. assessment center scores do
appear to predict the acquisition of job related knowledge on
thejob.
The point method of evaluatingprevious tr!liningand experi-
ence (T&E) is used mostly in governmenthiring-at all levels,
federal. state. and local. A major reason for its widespread use
is that point method procedures are relatively inexpensive to
construct and use. The point method appears under a wide vari-
ety of different names (McDaniel et aI., 1988a). but all such
procedures have several important characteristics in common.
All point method procedures are credentialistic; typically an
applicant receivesa fixed number of points for (a) each year or
month of experienceon the same or similarjob. (b) each year of
relevantschooling(or each course taken), and (c ) each relevant
training program completed. and so on. There is usually no
attempt to evaluatepast achievements,accomplishments,or job
performance;in effect, the procedure assumes that achievement
and performance are determined solely by the exposures that
are measured.As shown in Table I, the T&E point methodhas
low validity and produces only a 2% increase in validity over
that availablefrom GMA alone. The T&E point methodhas not
been used to predict performance in training programs.
Sheer amount of education has even lower validity for pre-
dictingjob performancethan theT&E pointmethod(.10). How-
ever,its incrementto validity,rounded to two decimal places,
is the same .01 as obtained with the T&E point method. It is
important to note that this findingdoes not imply that education
is irrelevant to occupational success; education is clearly an
important determinant of the level of job the individual can
obtain. What this finding shows is that among those who 'apply
to get a particularjob years of education does not predict future
performance on that job very well. For example, for a typical
semi-skilled blue collar job, years of education among appli-
cants might range from 9 to 12. The validity of .10 then means
that the average job performance of those with 12 years of
education will be only slightly higher (on average) than that
for those with 9 or 10 years.
As can be seen in Table 2, amount of education predicts
learning in job training programs better than it predicts perfor-
mance on the job. Hunter and Hunter (1984. Table 6) found a
mean validityof .20 for performance in training programs. This
is not a high level of validity, but it is twice as large as the
validityfor predictingjob performance.
Many believe that interests are an important determinant of
one's level of job performance. People whose interests match
the content of theirjobs (e.g., people with mechanical interests
who have mechanical jobs) are believed to have higher job
performance than with nonmatching interests. The validity of
.10 for interests shows that this is true only to a very limited
extent. To many people, this seems counterintuitive. Why do
interestspredictjob performanceso poorly? Researchindicates
that interestsdo substantiallyinfluencewhichjobs people prefer
and whichjobs they attempt to enter. However.pnce individuals
are in a job. the quality and level of their job performance is
determinedmostlyby theirmentalability and by certain person-
ality traits such as conscientiousness, not by their interests. So
despite popular belief. measurement of work interests is not a
good means of predicting who will show the best future job
performance (Holland. 1986).
Interests predict learning in job training programs somewhat
better than they predict job performance. As shown in Table 2.
Hunter and Hunter (1984, Table 8) found a mean validity of
.18 for predicting performance in job training programs.
Graphology is the analysis of handwriting. Graphologists
claim that people express their personalities through their hand-
writing and that one's handwriting therefore reveals personality
traits and tendencies that graphologists can use to predict future
job performance. Graphology is used infrequently in the United
States and Canada but is widely used in hiring in France
(Steiner, 1997; Steiner & Gilliland, 1996) and in Israel. Levy
( 1979) reported that 85% of French firms routinely use graphol-
ogy in hiring of personnel. Ben-Shakhar. Bar-Hillel, Bilu. Ben-
Abba, and Flug ( 1986) stated that in Israel graphology is used
more widely than any other single personality measure.
Several studies have examined the ability of graphologists and
nongraphologists to predict job performance from handwriting
samples (Jansen, 1973; Rafaeli & Klimoski, 1983; see also Ben-
Shakhar, 1989; Ben-Shakhar, Bar-Hillel. Bilu, et aI., 1986; Ben-
Shakhar, Bar-Hillel, & Flug, 1986). The key findings in this
area are as follows. When the assessees who provide handwrit-
ing samples are allowed to write on any subject they choose.
both graphologists and untrained nongraphologists can infer
some (limited) information about their personalities and job
performance from the handwriting samples. But untrained non-
graphologists do just as well as graphologists; both show validi-
ties in the .18- .20 range. When the assessees are required to
copy the same material from a book to create their handwriting
sample, there is no evidence that graphologists or nongrapholo-
gists can infer any valid information about personality traits or
job performance from the handwriting samples (Neter & Ben-
Shakhar, 1989). What this indicates is that, contrary to graphol-
;ogy theory, whatever limited information about personality or
. job performance there is in the handwriting samples comes from
the content and not the characteristics of the handwriting. For
example, writers differ in style of writing, expressions of emo-
tions, verbal fluency, grammatical skills, and so on. Whatever
information about personality and ability these differences con-
tain~the training of graphologists does not allow them to extract
it better than can people untrained in graphology. In handwriting
per se, independent of content, there appears to be no informa-
tion about personality or job performance ( Neter & Ben-
Shakhar, 1989).
To many people, this is another counterintuitive finding, like
the finding that interests are a poor predictor of job performance.
To these people, it seems obvious that the wide and dramatic
variations in handwriting that everyone observes must reveal
personality differences aI}longindividuals. Actually. most of the
variation in handwriting is due to differences among individuals
in fine motor coordination of the finger muscles. And these
differences in finger muscles and their coordination are probably
due mostly to random genetic variations among individuals. The
genetic variations that cause these finger coordination differ-
ences do not appear to be linked to personality; and in fact there
is no apparent reason to believe they should be.

VALIDITY AND UTILITY
The validity of graphology for predicting performance in
training programs has not been studied. However. the findings
with respect to performance on the job make it highly unlikely
that graphology has validity for training performance.
Table I shows that age of job applicants shows no validity
for predicting job performance. Age is rarely used as a basis
for hiring. and in fact in the United States. use of age for individ-
uals over age 40 would be a violation .of the federal law against
age discrimination. We include age here for only two reasons.
First. some individuals believe age is related to job performance.
We show here that for typical jobs this is not the case. Second.
age serves to anchor the bottom end of the validity dimension:
Age is about as totally unrelated to job performance as any
measure can be. No meta-analyses relating age to performance
in job training programs were found. Although it is possible
that future research will find that age is negatively related to
performance in job training programs (as is widely believed),
we note again that job experience. which is positively correlated
with age, is not correlated with performance in training pro-
grams (see Table 2).
Finally, we address an issue raised by a reviewer. As discussed
in more detail in the next section. some of the personnel mea- .
sures we have examined (e.g., GMA and conscientiousness
measures) are measures of single psychological constructs,
whereas others (e.g., biodata and assessment centers) are meth-
ods rather than constructs. It is conceivable that a method such
as the assessment center. for example, could measure different
constructs or combinations of constructs in different applica-
tions in different firms. The reviewer therefore questioned
whether it was meaningful to compare the incremental validities
of different methods (e.g., comparing the incremental validities
produced by the structUred interview and the assessment center) .
There are two responses to this. First, this article is concerned
with personnel measures as used in the real world of employ-
ment. Hence. from that point of view. such comparisons of
incremental validities would be meaningful, even if they repre-
sented only crude average differences in incremental validities.
However. the sitUation is not that grim. The empirical evi-
dence indicates that such methods as interviews, assessment
centers, and biodata measures do not vary l1Ulchfrom applica-
tion to application in the constructs they measure. This can be
seen from the fact that meta-analysis results show that the stan-
dard deviations of validity across studies (applications), after
the appropriate corrections for sampling error and other statisti-
cal and measurement artifacts, are quite small (ef. Gaugler et
al., 1987; McDaniel et aI., 1994; Schmidt & Rothstein, 1994).
In fact, these standard deviations are often even smaller than
those for construct-based measures such as GMA and conscien-
tiousness (Schmidt & Rothstein. 1994).
Hence, the sitUation appears to be this: We do not know
exactly what combination of constructs is measured by methods
such as the assessment center. the interview. and biodata (see
the next section). but whatever those combinations are. they do
not appear to vary much from one application (stUdy) to another.
Hence. comparisons of their relative incremental validities over
GMA is in fact meaningful. These incremental validities can be
expected to be stable across different applications of the meth-
ods in different organizations and settings.
271
Toward a Theory of the Determinants
of Job Performance
The previous section summarized what is known from cumu-
lative empirical research about the validity of various personnel
measures for predicting futUre job performance and job-related
learning of job applicants. These findings are based on thousands
of research studies performed over eight decades and involving
millions of employees. They are a tribute to the power of empiri-
cal research, integrated using meta-analysis methods. to produce
precise estimates of relationships of interest and practical value.
However, the goals of personnel psychology include more than
a delineation of relationships that are practically useful in select-
ing employees. In recent years. the focus in personnel psychol-
ogy has turned to the development of theories of the causes of
job perfonnance (Schmidt & Hunter, 1992). The objective is
the understanding of the psychological processes underlying and
determining job perfonnance. This change of emphasis is possi-
ble because application of meta-analysis to research findings
has provided the kind of precise and generalizable estimates of
the validity of different measured constructs for predicting job
,performance that are summarized in this article. It has also
provided more precise estimates than previously available of
the correlations among these predictors.
However, the theories of job performance that have been de-
veloped and tested do not include a role for all of the personnel
measures discussed above. That is because the actual constructs
measured by some of these procedures are unknown. and it
seems certain that some of these procedures measure combina-
tions of constructs (Hunter & Hunter. 1984; Schmidt &
Rothstein, 1994). fur example, employment interviews probably
measure a combination of previous experience. mental ability,
and a number of personality traits, such as conscientiousness:
in addition, they may measure specific job-related skills and
behavior patterns. The average correlation between interview
scores and scores on GMA tests is .32 (Huffcutt et al.. 1996).
This indicates that, to some extent. interview scores reflect men-
tal ability. Little empirical evidence is available as to what other
traits they measure (Huffcutt et al., 1996). What has been said
here of employment interviews also applies to peer ratings, the
behavioral consistency method. reference checks, biographical
data measures, assessment centers, and the point method of
evaluating past training and experience. Procedures such as these
can be used as practical selection tools but. because their con-
struct composition is unknown, they are less useful in con-
structing theories of the determinants of job performance. The
measures that have been used in theories of job performance
have been GMA, job knowledge, job experience, and personality
traits. This is because it is fairly clear what constructs each of
these procedures measures.
What has this research revealed about the determinants of
job performance? A detailed review of this research can be
found in Schmidt and Hunter ( 1992); here we summarize only
the most important findings. One major finding concerns the
reason why GMA is such a good predictor of job performance.
The major direct causal impact of mental ability has been found
to be on the acquisition of job knowledge. That is. the major
reason more intelligent people have higher job performance is
that they acquire job knowledge more rapidly and acquire more

272 SCHMIDT AND HUNTER
of it: and it is this knowledgeof how to perform the job that
causes theirjob performanceto be higher (Hunter. 1986).Thus.
mental abilityhas its most important effect on job performance
indirectly.through job knowledge.There is also a direct effect
of mentalabilityonjob performanceindependentofjob knowl-
edge. but it is smaller.For nonsupervisoryjobs. this direct effect
is only about 20% as large.as the indirecteffect: for supervisory
jobs. it is about 50% as large (Borman, White. Pulakos. &
Oppler. 1991; Schmidt. Hunter.& Outerbridgt, 1986).
It has also been found that job experience operates in this
samemanner.Job experienceis essentiallya measure ofpractice
on the job and hence a measure of opportunity to learn. The
majordirectcausaleffect ofjob experienceis onjob knowledge,
just as is the case for mental ability.Up to about 5 years on the
job. increasingjob experienceleadsto increasingjob knowledge
(Schmidt. Hunter.& Outerbridge, 1986). which. in turn. leads
to improvedjob performance. So themajor effect ofjob experi-
ence on job performance is indirect, operating through job
knowledge.Again. there is also a direct effect of job experience
on job performance, but it is smaller than the indirect effect
throughjob knowledge (about 30% as large).
The major personality trait that has been studied in causal
models of job performance is conscientiousness.This research
has found that. controlling for mental ability, employees who
are higher in conscientiousness develop higher levels of job
knowledge, probably because highly conscientious individuals
exert greater efforts and spend more time "on task." This job
knowledge, in turn, causes higher levels of job performance.
From a theoretical point of view, this research suggests that the
central determiningvariables in job performance may be GMA.
job experience (i.e., opportunity to learn), and the personality
trait of conscientiousness.This is consistent withour conclusion
that a combinationof a GMA test and an integrity test (which
measures mostly conscientiousness) has the highest high valid-
ity (.65) for predicting job performance. Another combination
with high validity (.63) is GMA plus a structured interview,
which may in part measure conscientiousness and related per-
sonality traits (such as agreeableness and emotional stability,
which are also measured in part by integrity tests).
Limitations of This Study
This article examined the multivariatevalidity of only certain
predictor combinations: combinations of two predictors with
one of the two being GMA. Organizations sometimes use more
than two selection methods, and it would be informative to
examine the incremental validity from adding a third predictor.
For some purposes, it would also be of interest to examine
predictor combinationsthat do not include GMA. However.the
absence of the needed estimates of predictor intercorrelations
in the literature makesthis impossible at the presenttime.In the
future. as data accumulates,such analyses may becomefeasible.
In fact. evenwithinthe context of the present study,some of
the estimated predictor intercorrelations could not be made as
precise as would be ideal, at least in comparison to those esti-
mates that are based on the results of major meta-analyses. For
example. the job tryout procedure is similar to an extended job
sample test. In the absence of data estimating the job tryout-
ability test score correlation, this correlation was estimated as
being the same as the job sample-ability test correlation. It is
to be hoped that future research will provide more precise esti-
mates of this and other correlations between GMA and other
personnel measures.
Questionsrelated to genderor minority subgroupsare beyond
the scopeof this study.These issuesinclude questionsof differ-
ential validity by subgroups, predictive fairness for subgroups,
and subgroupdifferences in mean scoreon selectionprocedures.
An extensive existing literature addresses these questions (cf.
Hunter & Schmidt, 1996; Ones et al., 1993; Schmidt, 1988;
Schmidt & Hunter, 1981; Schmidt, Ones. & Hunter. 1992;
Wigdor & Garner, 1982). However,the general findingsof this
research literature are obviously relevanthere.
For differential validity,the general finding has been that va-
lidities (the focus of this study) do not differ appreciably for
different subgroups. For predictive fairness, the usual finding
has been a lack of predictive bias for minorities and women.
That is, given similar scores on selection procedures. later job
performance is similar regardless of group membership. On
some selection procedures (in particular, cognitive measures),
subgroupdifferences on means are typically observed.On other
selection procedures (in particular, personality and integrity
measures), subgroup differences are rare or nonexistent. For
many selection methods (e.g., reference checks and evaluations
of education and experience), there is little data (Hunter &
Hunter, 1984).
For many purposes, the most relevantfinding is the finding
of lack of predictivebias. That is, even whensubgroups differ
in mean score, selection procedure scores appear to have the
same implications for later performance for individualsin all
subgroups (Wigdor & Garner, 1982). That is, the predictive
interpretation of scores is the same in different subgroups.
Summary and Iffiplications
Employers must make hiring decisions; they have no choice
about that. But they can choose which methods to use in making
those decisions. The research evidence summarized in this arti-
cle shows that different methods and combinations of methods
have very different validities for predicting future job perfor-
mance. Some, such as interests and amount of education, have
very low validity. Others, such as graphology, have essentially
no validity; they are equivalent to hiring randomly. Still others,
such as GMA tests and work sample measures, have high valid-
ity. Of the combinations of predictors examined, two stand out
as being both practical to use for most hiring and as having
high composite validity: the combination of a GMA test and an
integrity test (composite validity of .65); and the combination
of a GMA test and a structured interview (composite validity
of .63). Both of these combinations can be used with applicants
with no previous experience on the job (entry level applicants),
as well as with experienced applicants. Both combinations pre-
dict performance in job training programs quite well (.67 and
.59. respectively), as well as performance on the job. And both
combinations are less expensive to use than many other combi-
nations. Hence, both are excellent choices. However. in particu-
lar cases there might be reasons why an employer might choose
to use one of the other combinations with high. but slightly
lower. validity. Some examples are combinations that include

VALIDITY AND CTILITY
wnscientiousness tests. work sample tests. job knowledge tests.
and the behavioral consistency method.
In recent vears. researchers have used cumulative research
.'
findings on the validity of predictors of job performance to
create and test theories of job performance. These theories are
now shedding light on the psychological processes that underlie
observed predictive validity and are advancing basic understand-
ing of human competence in the wotkplace.
The validity of the personnel measure (or combination of
measures) used in hiring is directly proportional to the practical
value of the method-whether measured in dollar value of in-
creased output or percentage of increase in output. In economic
terms. the gains from increasing the validity of hiring methods
can amount over time to literally millions of dollars. However,
this can be viewed from the opposite point of view: By using
selection methods with low validity, an organization can lose
millions of dollars in reduced production.
In fact. many employers, both in the United States and
throughout the world. are currently using suboptimal selection
methods. For example. many organizations in France. Israel.
and other countries hire new employees based on handwriting
analyses by graphologists. And many organizations in the United ,
States rely solely on unstructured interviews. when they could..
use more valid methods. In a competitive world. these organiza-
tions are unnecessarily creating a competitive disadvantage for
themselves (Schmidt. 1993). By adopting more valid hiring
procedures. they could turn this competitive disadvantage into
a competitive advantage.
References
Baker. T. G. (1996). Practice network. The Industrial-Organizational
Psychologist. 34. 44-53.
Bar-Hillel. M.. & Ben-Shakhar. G. (1986). The a priori case against
graphology: Methodological and conceptUal issues. In B. Nevo (Ed.).
Scientific aspects of graphology (pp. 263-279). Springfield. IL:
Charles C Thomas.
Ben-Shakhar. G. (1989). Nonconventional methods in personnel selec-
tion. In P. Herriot (Ed.). Handbook of assessment in organizations:
Methods and practice for recruitment and appraisal (pp. 469-485).
Chichestet England: Wiley.
Ben-Shakhar. GooBar-Hillel. M., Bilu. Y.. Ben-Abba. E., & Flug, A.
( 1986). Can graphology predict occupational success? Two empirical
stUdies and some methodological ruminations. Journal of Applied
Psychology. 71. 645-653.
Ben-Shakhar. GooBar-Hillel. M.. & Flug, A. (1986). A validation stUdy
of graphological evaluations in personnel selection. In B. Nevo (Ed.),
Scientific aspects of graphology (pp. 175-191). Springfield. IL:
Charles C Thomas.
Borman. W. CooWhite. L. A.. Pulakos. E. Doo& Opple!; S. H. (1991).
Models evaluating the effects of ralee ability. knowledge, proficiency,
temperament. awards. and problem behavior on supervisory ratings.
Journal of Applied Psychology. 76. 863-872.
Boudreau. J. W. (1983a). Economic considerations in estimating the
utility of human resource productivity improvement programs. Per-
sonnel PS)'chology. 36. 551-576.
Boudreau. J. W. (1983b). Effects of employee !tows or utility analysis
of human resources productivity improvement programs. Journal of
Applied PS)'chology, 68. 396-407.
Boudreau. J. W. (1984). Decision theory contributions to human re-
source management research and practice. Illdustrial Relations. 23.
198-217.
273
Brody. N. (1992). llitelli~ence. :-<ew York: Academic Press.
Brogden. H. E. ( 1949). When testing pays off. Personnel Psvchology.
2. 171-183.
Carlson. K. DooScullen. S. E.. Schmidt. F. L.. Rothstein. H. R.. & Erwin.
F. W. (1998). Generalizable biographical data: Is multi-organiza-
tional development and keying necessary? Manuscript in preparation.
Carroll. J. B. (1993). Human cognitive abilities: A survey of factor
analytic studies. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Cascio. W. F.. & Silbey, V. (1979). Utility of the assessment center as
a selection device. Journal of Applied Psychology, 64. 107-118.
Collins. J. (1998). Prediction of overall assessment center evaluations
from ability. personality. and motivation measures: A meta-analysis.
Unpublished manuscript, Texas A & M University, College Station.
TX.
Cronshaw.S.F..&Alexander.R.A.( 1985). One answer to the demand
for accountability: Selection utility as an investment decision. Organi-
zational Behavior and Human Performance. 35. 102-118.
Dye, D. A.. Reck. M.. & McDaniel. M. A. (1993). The validity of job
knowledge measures. International Journal of Selection and Assess-
ment. I, 153-157.
Gaugler. B. B., Rosenthal. D. B., Thornton. G. c.. & Benson. C. (1987).
. 'Meta-analysis of assessment center validity. Journal of Applied Psy-
chology, 72.493-511.
Holland, J. (1986). New directions for interest testing. In B. S. Plake &
J. C. Witt (Eds.), The future of testing (pp. 245-267). Hillsdale. NJ:
Erlbaum.
Hollander. E. P. ( 1956). The friendship factor in peer nominations. Per-
sonnel Psychology, 9. 435-447.
Huffcutt. A. I.. Roth, P. L., & McDaniel. M. A. ( 1996) . A meta-analytic
investigation of cognitive ability in employment interview evaluations:
Moderating characteristics and implications for incremental validity.
Journal of Applied Psychology. 81. 459-473.
Hunter. J. E. (1980). Validity generalizationfor 12.000 jobs: An applica-
tion of synthetic validity and validity generalization to the General
Aptitude Test Battery (GATB). WashingtOn. DC: U.S. Department of
Labor. Employment Service.
Hunter. J. E. (1986). Cognitive ability, cognitive aptitUdes. job knowl-
edge, and job performance. Journal of Vocational Behavior. 29. 340-
362.
Hunter. J. E.. & Hunter. R. F. (1984). Validity and utility of alternative
predictors of job performance. Psychological Bulletin. 96. 72-98.
Hunter. J. E., & Schmidt. F. L. ( 1982a). Fitting people to jobs: Implica-
tions of personnel selection for national productivity. In E. A. Fleish-
man&M.D.Dunnette(Eds.),Human performance andproductivity.
Volume I: Human capability assessment (pp. 233-284). Hillsdale.
NJ: Erlbaum.
Hunter. J. E., & Schmidt, F. L. ( 1982b ). Quantifying the effects of psy-
chological interventions on employee job performance and work force
productivity. American Psychologist. 38. 473-478.
Hunter. J. Eoo& Schmidt. F. L. (1990). Methods of meta-analysis: Cor-
recting error and bias in researchfindings. BeverlyHills. CA: Sage.
Hunter, J. E.. & Schmidt, F. L. ( 1996). Intelligence and job performance:
Economic and social implications. Psychology. Public Policy. and
Law. 2. 447-472.
Hunter. J. E.. Schmidt, F. L.. & Coggin. T. D. (1988). Problems and
pitfalls in using capital budgeting and financial accounting techniques
in assessing the utility of personnel programs. Journal of Applied
Psychology. 73, 522-528.
Hunter. J. E.. Schmidt. F. Loo& Jackson. G. B. (1982). Meta-analysis:
Cumulating research findings across studies. Beverly Hills. CA: Sage.
Hunter. J. EooSchmidt. F. Loo& Judiesch. M. K. (1990). Individual dif-
ferences in output variability as a function of job complexity. Journal
of Applied Psychology. 75. 28-~2.

274 SCHMIDT AND HUNTER
Jansen. A. (1973). Validation of graphological Judgments: An experi-
mental study. The Hague. the Netherlands: Monton.
Jensen. A. R. ( 1998). The gfactor: The science of mental ability. West-
port. CT: Praeger.
Levy. L. (1979). Handwriting and hiring. Dun's Review. 113,72-79.
McDaniel. M. A.. Schmidt. F. L.. & Hunter. J. E. (1988a). A meta-
analysis of the validity of methods for rating training and experience
in personnel selection. Personnel Psychology, 41, 283-314.
McDaniel. M. A.. Schmidt. F. L.. & Hunter. J. E. (l988b). Job experi-
ence correlates of job performance, Journal of Applied Psychology,
73. 327-330.
McDaniel. M. A.. Whetzel. D. L.. Schmidt, F. L.. & Mauer, S. D. (1994).
The validity of employment interViews: A comprehensive review and
meta-analysis.Journal of Applied Psychology, 79,599-616.
Mount. M. K.. & Barrick. M. R. ( 1995). The Big Five personality di-
mensions: Implications for research and practice in human resources
management.In G. R. Ferris(Ed.). Researchinpersonnel and human
resources maTlllgement (Vol. 13. pp. 153-2(0). 1Al Press.
Neter. E.. & Ben-Shakhar. G. ( 1989). The predictive validity of grapho-
logical inferences: A meta-analytic approach. PersoTllllity and Individ-
ual Differences, /0, 737-745.
Ones. D. S. ( 1993). The construct validity of integrity tests. Unpublished
doctoral dissertation. University of Iowa. Iowa City.
Ones. D. S.. Viswesvaran. C.. & Schmidt. F. L. (1993). Comprehensive
meta-analysis of integrity test validities: Findings and implications
for personnel selection and theories of job performance. Journal of
Applied PsychologyMonograph. 78, 679-703.
Pearlman. K.. Schmidt, F. L.. & Hunter, 1. E. ( 1980). Validity generaliza-
tion results for tests used to predict job proficiency and training criteria
in clerical occupations. Journal of Applied Psychology, 65, 373-407.
Rafaeli. A., & Klimoski, R. 1. (1983). Predicting sales success through
handwriting analysis: An evaluation of the effects of training and
handwriting sample context. Journal of Applied Psychology, 68, 212-
217.
Ree, M. J., & Earles. 1. A. (1992). Intelligence is the best predictor of
job performance. Current Directions in Psychological Science, I. 86-
89.
Rothstein. H. R., Schmidt, F. L., Erwin, F. w.. Owens, W. A., & Sparks.
C. P.( 1990). Biographical data in employment selection: Can validities
be madegeneralizable?Journal of Applied Psychology,75, 175-184.
Schmidt. F.L. (1988). The problem of group differences in ability .
scores in employment selection. Journal of VocatioTlllIBehavior; 33. .
272-292.
Schmidt, F. L. (1992). What do data really mean? Research findings.
meta analysis. and cumulative knowledge in psychology. American
Psychologist, 47. 1173-1181.
Schmidt. F. L. ( 1993). Personnel psychology at the cutting edge. In N.
Schmitt & w. Borman (Eds.), Personnel selection (pp. 497-515).
San Francisco: Jossey Bass.
Schmidt, F. L., Caplan. 1. R, Bemis. S. E., Decuir. R., Dinn, L.. &
Antone, L. ( 1979) .Development and evaluation of behavioral consis-
tency method of uTlllssembledexamining (Tech. Rep. No. 79-21).
U.S. Civil Service Commission. Personnel Research and Development
Center.
Schmidt, F. L.. & Hunter, J. E. (1977). Development of a general solu-
tion to the problem of validity generalization. Journal of Applied
Ps:-..chology,62, 529-540.
Schmidt, F. L.. & Hunter. 1. E. ( 1981 ). Employment testing: Old theories
and new research findings.American Psychologist.36. 1128-1137.
Schmidt. F. L.. & Hunter, J. E. ( 1983 ). Individual differences in produc-
tivity: An empirical test of estimates derived from studies of selection
procedure utility. Journal of Applied Psychology, 68, 407-415.
Schmidt. F. L.. & Hunter. J. E. ( 1992). Development of causal models
of processes determining job performance. Current Directions in Psv-
chological Science. 1. 89-92.
Schmidt. F. L., Hunter. J. E.. McKenzie. R. C.. & Muldrow. T.W.
( 1979). The impact of valid selection procedures on work-force pro-
ductivity. Journal of Applied Ps:...chology,64. 609-626.
Schmidt. F. L.. Hunter. J. E.. & Outerbridge. A. N. (1986), The impact
of job experience and ability on job knowledge. work sample perfor-
mance.and supervisoryratingsof job performance.JournalofApplied
Psychology, 7I. 432-439.
Schmidt. F. L.. Hunter. 1. E.. Outerbridge. A. N.. & Goff. S. (1988).
The joint relation of experience and ability with job performance: A
test of three hypotheses. Journal of Applied Psychology, 73, 46-57.
Schmidt, F. L., Hunter, J. E., Outerbridge. A. M.. & Trattner. M. H.
( 1986). The economic impact of job selection methods on the size.
productivity, and payroll costs of the federal work-force: An empirical
demonstration. Personnel Psychology. 39. 1-29.
Schmidt, F. L., Hunter. 1.E.. & Pearlman. K. (1980). Task difference
and validity of aptitude tests in selection: A red herring. Journal of
Applied Psychology, 66. 166-185.
Schmidt, F. L.. Hunter. J. E.. & Pearlman. K. (1982). Assessing the
economic impact of personnel programs on workforce productivity.
Personnel Psychology,; 35. 333-347.
ScQmidt, F. L., Hunter. J. E., Pearlman. K.. & Shane. G. S. (1979).
.Further tests of the Schmidt-Hunter Bayesian Validity Generalization
Model. Personnel Psychology, 32, 257-281.
Schmidt. F. L.. Law. K.. Hunter, 1.E.. Rothstein. H. R.. Pearlman. K., &
McDaniel. M. (1993). Refinements in validity generalization meth-
ods: Implications for the situational specificity hypothesis. Journal of
Applied Psychology. 78, 3-13.
Schmidt. F. L., Mack. M. 1.. & Hunter. J. E. ( 1984). Selection utility in
the occupation of U.S. Park Ranger for three modes of test use. Jour-
nal of Applied Psychology, 69, 490-497.
Schmidt. F. L.. Ones, D. S.. & Hunter, J. E. (1992). Personnel selection.
Annual Review of Psychology, 43, 627-670.
Schmidt. F. L., Ones. D. S.. & Viswesvaran. C. (1994. June 3D-July
3). The persoTllllity characteristic of integriry predicts job training
success. Presented at the 6th Annual Convention of the American
Psychological Society, Washington. DC.
Schmidt. F. L., & Rothstein. H. R. ( 1994). Application of validity gener-
.alizationmethodsof meta-analysisto biographicaldata scores in em-
ployment selection. In G. S. Stokes. M. D. Mumford. & w. A. Owens
(Eds.), The biodata handbook: Theory, research. and applications
(pp. 237-260). Palo Alto. CA: Consulting Psychologists Press.
Steiner, D. D. (1997). International forum. The Industrial-Organiza-
tioTlllIPsychologist,34. 51-53.
Steiner,D. D., & Gilliland.S. W.(1996). Fairnessreactionsto personnel
selection techniquesin France and the United States. Journal of Ap-
plied Psychology.81, 134-141.
Viswesvaran, C.. Ones. D. S., & Schmidt. F. L. (1996). Comparative
analysisof the reliability of job performanceratings. Journal of Ap-
plied Psychology, 81. 557-560.
Waters. L. K., & Waters. C. W. (1970). Peer nominations as predictors
of short-term role performance. Journal of Applied Psychology, 54.
42-44.
Wigdor, A. K., & Garner. W. R. (Eds.). (1982). Abiliry testing: Uses.
consequences, and controversies (Report of the National Research
Council Committee on Ability Testing). Washington. DC: National
Academy of Sciences Press.
ReceivedApril 8. 1997
Revision received February 3.1998
AcceptedApril 2. 1998.